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"Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 04:03 PM (EST)
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"Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
LAST EDITED ON 03-02-01 AT 04:16 PM (EST)

As of right now I would say that episode 7 could definitely determine the rest of this show or at least the final four. As of right now I see the Kucha tribe as having a major upper hand and this is the reason why. First of all, I was under the impression that after the Michael incident that this group of people is pretty tight, and I believe that they are willing to take this thing to the final five together. This could be an incorrect statement on my part, but at the end of the show they did seem to have a great deal of team unity, and I would say they are prepared to take the rest of this thing on as a team.

As for the Ogakor tribe, I continue to hear Keith's words that he will now do any thing to be sure that Jerri does not win. He said that winning was no longer important to him, but that her losing was. What this tells me is that it is possible that the Ogakor tribe may not vote as a block of 5. If Keith is still willing to do whatever it takes to remove her from this game, and he gives the Kucha tribe an inkling to that effect, we may see Jerri removed next week. The same goes for Keith. Jerri dislikes him immensly and I would definitely not put it past her to remove him as quickly as possible, just so he gets out of her hair.

If the Kucha tribe does actually vote together, it seems to me that it might not take a lot for them to see the hostility of these two towards one another. That being the case it may not be difficult for them to persuade one of the two to vote against the other. This obviously gives the vote to Kucha this week either against Keith or Jerri in a 6-4 vote, assuming that they are smart enough to pick up on the idea that I have just described.

If they are able to do this, and they continue to play as a team(which is obviously still undetermined) they could control the vote in the same fashion as the Tagi tribe, and never have to worry about any of their five being voted off.

I for one would not like to see this show go the way of last years in this regard, but if Kucha is some what perceptive and Jerri and Keith continue their fighting, this could be an all Kucha final four. My early pick for the bootee next week is either Jerri or Keith.

Please let me know how you all feel about this and add any information that you feel does not support this thought.

Meant Early in the subject, sorry for the typo.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... colbysincharge 03-02-01 1
   RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... mistofleas 03-02-01 4
       EP7 Challenge ? Krautboy 03-02-01 6
 RE: Early Speculation for Episode 7... nailbone 03-02-01 2
 RE: Earl (don't call me Earl) Spec... dangerkitty 03-02-01 3
 RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... nadine 03-02-01 5
   RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... ACPS65 03-02-01 7
       RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... Kokoro 03-03-01 16
           RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... ACPS65 03-03-01 21
 cbs site videos dangerkitty 03-02-01 8
   RE: cbs site videos mustangsally 03-04-01 22
       RE: cbs site videos ItzLisa 03-05-01 26
 Ogas are smarter than you think LowRent 03-03-01 9
   I agree Siebured 03-03-01 10
       RE: I agree Minstrel 03-03-01 12
           RE: I agree Siebured 03-03-01 15
               RE: I agree Minstrel 03-04-01 24
   RE: Ogas are smarter than you think brewerr 03-03-01 11
       RE: Ogas are smarter than you think Play2Survive 03-03-01 13
       RE: Ogas are smarter than you think Loree 03-03-01 14
           RE: Ogas are smarter than you think Kokoro 03-03-01 17
               RE: Ogas are smarter than you think 666Advocate 03-04-01 23
               RE: Ogas are smarter than you think ItzLisa 03-06-01 29
   RE: Ogas are smarter than you think MDSkinner 03-03-01 18
       Tiebreak dangerkitty 03-03-01 19
           RE: Tiebreak MDSkinner 03-03-01 20
               Glossary theory still holding cowboyroo 03-05-01 25
   RE: Ogas are smarter than you think shanana banana 03-05-01 27
 RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... my0wn 03-06-01 28
   RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... RASH 03-06-01 30
       RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7.... wendyp 03-06-01 33
   An observation on Nick dangerkitty 03-06-01 31
       RE: An observation on Nick ana128 03-06-01 32
           Tiebreaker Rules dbjennings 03-06-01 34

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colbysincharge 71 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 05:28 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 05:46 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
Is this showing us that orange is the merger color?

*I like the number 333...it's only half as evil.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 06:37 PM (EST)
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6. "EP7 Challenge ?"
Yes, Orange is definately the new tribe color. This picture shows Keith and Liz standing looking cold, possibly after their turn at the Challenge, Liz looks wet, both look cold, neither looks like they did well. Also, over at SurvivorFever the photos available show "orange" and Jeff standing by water apparently talking about the challenge...the "water platform" challenge picture also seems to fit with the other pictures in terms of color of water, amount of sunlight, etc...

So, if we have an IC in these pictures with Keith and Liz looking dejected, are they vulnerable? I'd say Liz no, Keith maybe...

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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 05:29 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Early Speculation for Episode 7........"
I agree that the Ep7 bootee is either Jerri or Keith. And the only way Jerri avoids it is by winning the immunity challenge. If she does, she'll work to swing the vote to him as you said. If not, vice versa. Either way Colby is safe for a week to form an alliance with some Kuchas. And for now, Tina and Amber are non-threats.

As for an all Kucha Final 4, I have on good authority that Colby makes the Final 2. It's one of those friend of a friend deals, so I don't expect y'all to take it as gospel. Call it informed speculation. Anyway, I think Colby will play the game well enough to go far, since he's seemed to be the only Oga to have any strategy formulated (that we've seen so far).

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 05:39 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Earl (don't call me Earl) Speculation for Episode 7........"
I agree. I posted some of this on the Final Four thread, but it should be here.

We have these quotes:

Keith:It's not about me winning the million anymore, it's about making sure that Jerri does not win it.
Colby: Bring on Kucha, the heck with these goons.
Tina: Uncomfortable around Jerri, she causes problems.
Jerri: I will finagle my way in with them, use tricks to get in.
Amber: Oh My God!..Meatball subs!...Oh My God!...I love those!...Oh My God!

Ogakor each have their own agenda. There is very limited trust. They may know that the strategy is they need to stick together, but emotionally that isn't where they're at, and what's the payoff? All it takes is the first tie vote, however it is broken goes against them, and now they'll be picked off one by one. Any of them, except maybe Amber, has motivation to turn on an Ogakor for emotional reasons and also the chance to save their own butt, at least for a little while. Specifically in regards to Keith in this scenario, we have the oft-quoted line from Michael (original source, I don't know, but it has been referenced many times here) that he didn't get to know him there, but heard from his tribemates that he's a nice guy. IF that quote is true, well, wouldn't they like him if his vote got them into the majority? And his quote above fits - he may end up sacrificing himself, but Jerri will be gone.

Jerri apparently plans to put on quite a show for the Kucha. Do whatever she can to get in with them, and if she is going down, she will wreak some havoc while she's at it. The question is, can she turn on the charm and fool the Kucha into thinking she is not the anti-Christ? Who will they believe? Here may be a problem for Keith - as you mention, Kucha might see their hostility. Can Jerri "act" and make it appear that it is all Keith? Also, how deep does Jerri's loyalty to Amber go - are they attached at the hip?

I'll admit, I'm having some difficulty keeping my own wishes out of it. I so do not want Jerri to win or even to get away with any of her crap with the Kuchas. I am so looking forward to the day she takes that lonely walk. And with these ideas about why Jeff may be next to go, what makes this seem likely also is that I'm actually starting to like him now! His scene talking about Michael and all. So of course, now he'll go.

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nadine 6 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 06:19 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
I was so wrong about Ep 6 that I'm almost afraid to guess now, but two things keep coming up - Jeff leaving next and the possibility of a new campsite for the merged team. I so much want Jerri to get stomped on so maybe that colors my views too much, but I cannot envision anyway she will be able to lure any Kuchas into her web. The Kuchas seem darned tight right now so I don't see them sacrificing any of their own, but at least two Ockas are ready to give up Jerri. So how does Jeff get picked??Will a new campsite upset old loyalties?
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ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 07:45 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
I agree with Nadine. The Kucha tribe has it more together than Ogakor right now....Ogakor has way too much divison...each player has their own agenda....none of which will be to any avail.
I predict no one from the Kucha tribe will be voted out of the newly merged tribe next week.
As a matter of fact, I guarentee it.

Final Three: Alicia Calaway, Jeff Varner, Elisabeth Filarski.

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 05:22 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
<<I predict no one from the Kucha tribe will be voted out of the newly merged tribe next week.
As a matter of fact, I guarentee it.>>

Sure that's not just because Jeff's also on your team AC? ^-^

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ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 10:58 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
>Sure that's not just because Jeff's
>also on your team AC?
>^-^

Well, yeah. Ogakor gets picked off one by one...leaving those final three, with Rodger or Nick as an alternate pick. So to answer your question, absolutly. It has everything to do with Jeff being on my "team".
But don't get me wrong....I don't really want any of three to win, as a matter of fact, Keith is the one I'm rooting for right now....
But ya know, I could be wrong. Maybe Jeff or any of the people in my Final Three could be gone next week, that's a huge possibility. But, we'll see.


Final Three: Alicia Calaway, Jeff Varner, Elisabeth Filarski.

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-01, 09:28 PM (EST)
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8. "cbs site videos"
Be sure to check out the videos on the cbs summary. Of note: Jeff has 2 solo videos, neither which aired. Others have none or one. And in both of his, he is really very likeable. None of the whiny backbiting stuff at all. A whole different demeanor. He also says that Mike's accident changed his outlook on the game - and that video has done 24 hours + after the accident. He also has a long quote in the summary.

> Does this make it seem more likely that he is the next bootee - as in, more face time?

Others of note: Tina talking about the accident at Kucha. They have no details. She feels more concern than relief. It "doesn't feel right" to have it go this way.

> Possibilities for a more "human", rather than strictly competitive, connection upon merging? wanting to know what happened and how everyone is, ceratinly a different scenario without the accident. Opens more opportunities for cross-alliances?

Colby, talking about post-merge BEFORE accident: contemplating Ogakor being down 6/4. Thinking about all the scenarios, believes there are ways for self-preservation even if that happens.

> He already has plans for new alliance, and is looking out just for himself?

I'm still new at this stuff, so I don't know if I'm reading too much into it. What are your opinions?

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mustangsally 16 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-01, 00:31 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: cbs site videos"
<Jeff has 2 solo videos, neither which aired. Others have none or one. And in both of his, he is really very likeable. None
of the whiny backbiting stuff at all. A whole different demeanor. He also says that Mike's accident changed his outlook on the game and that video has done 24 hours + after the accident. He also has a long quote in the summary.

Does this make it seem more likely that he is the next bootee - as in, more face time?>

yes......or positioning him to be the next winner.

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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-01, 11:36 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: cbs site videos"

> Does this make it seem more likely that he is the next bootee - as in, more face time? yes......or positioning him to be the next winner.

***Or that could be what MB wants us to think - that he either wins it all or is out on ep. 7. I think neither is the case.

Someone else posted above that their extreme dislike for Jerri keeps coloring their thoughts on who could be next, always winding back around to her. I'm the same way - I want her gone so badly I can taste it. And I truly think that if I, a viewer, only seeing her one hour a week, can feel this way, can you imagine living with her 24/7 for forty days? She's got to be gone soon. The only thing the merger accomplishes in terms of Jerri is that she's got five more people gunning for her, unless she wins immunity - which I don't see happening (she's way too thin).


**************************************
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS
what it's all about???

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LowRent 49 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 01:09 AM (EST)
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9. "Ogas are smarter than you think"
I see a totally different outcome in E7. The Kuchas are going to get totally blindsided by the scheming and manipulations of the Ogas. Both tribes MUST see the need to identify themselves as the dominant tribe, and a 5-5 vote is inevitable. The Ogas will put their bickering aside (at least for a week or so), be on their best behavior, and do what they do best--scheme and strategize.

The Kuchas have lost their leader and will make the mistake of trying to take out Colby (the strongest) as their first target. I don't think the Kuchas are fully aware of the tiebreaker rules since they have not had any ties at TC. Ogas will go into the merge with one goal: find out which Kucha has gotten votes at previous tribal councils. Once Jerri or Amber or Tina ferret this information out of Rodge or Liz, Ogas will have all they need to orchestrate the removal of Jeffy. That's how I see it.

I do have a couple of questions though...

Is Jeff even aware that he has gotten TWO votes...remember back to E5 when the beautiful Kimmi was voted out?..When Probst read the votes, wasn't it: KIMMY , KIMMY , KIMMI , KIMMY with no achnowledgement of her vote against Jeff? I may be wrong on this one but that struck me as odd at the time. Was the missing vote edited out or omitted for a reason? Is this relevant?

What is the 3rd tiebreaker? I can see this as becoming relevant on a 5-5 vote with Jeff vs Jerri.

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Siebured 83 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 09:01 AM (EST)
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10. "I agree"
The Ogas will vote as a block. At least for a while. They are the new kids at camp, and will naturally stick together until they know what the other people are all about.

I think they'll target Jeff because one of the other strong Kuchas win immunity.

The Kuchas will target Colby. There really isn't any other choice for them. We may dislike Jerri, but they don't know her yet & she isn't the biggest threat.

I see a 5-5 tie between Colby & Jeff. Jeff loses the tie-breaker.

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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 04:02 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: I agree"
I don't see Ogakor that together vote wise. Especially if Jerri continues being herself. She is out to get Ogakor. So, a 5-5 vote isn't a lock. I will agree that Colby is added to the duo of potential bootees in E7, but I really don't see a Kucha being a main target. Jeff may be a choice, but why wouldn't Keith and Colby use the merger to hit Jerri? Keith certainly wants her out. Don't forget, after this boot, we get jury members. Does Keith and Colby want Jerri on the jury? I wouldn't if I were them.

I think an 8-2 vote against Jerri is very possible provided she doesn't win immunity. Colby and Keith aren't "trouble makers." Jerri is. Kucha should be able to see this. And who's to say Colby, or Keith, or Tina don't tell Kucha what she's been up to all this time?

Further, how would the Ogakors know Jeff has two votes against him? If they did, why wouldn't Kucha know Keith has three and Jerri two, then? And then, why would they not save those people for later and hit someone with zero?

Sorry, at this point I don't buy a 5-5 tie at all. There are more likely combinations than that.

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Siebured 83 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 04:53 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: I agree"

***"I will agree that Colby is added to the duo of potential bootees in E7, but I really don't see a Kucha being a main target. Jeff may be a choice, but why wouldn't Keith and Colby use the merger to hit Jerri? "

For the past two episodes all we've heard from Oga is how important the immunity challenges were because they've been terrified of going into the merger down 6-4. Now they catch a break, go into the merger 5-5, and you think they'll immediately give the advantage back to Kucha. Sorry Minstrel, but I don't think so. Keith, Colby & Tina may hate Jerri, but they need her right now.

**"Further, how would the Ogakors know Jeff has two votes against him? If they did, why wouldn't Kucha know Keith has three and Jerri two, then? And then, why would they not save those people for later and hit someone with zero?"

I don't know that Oga knows about Jeff, or that it even matters. Kucha may not even know about the tie breaking rule. The strategy is simple, cover your own butt and vote off the biggest threat. The Kuchas have been eating alot more than the Ogas, therefore they're stronger and more of a threat to Keith, Colby and Tina right now than Jerri is.


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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-01, 08:23 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: I agree"
Siebured, I agree it's a cover you butt scenario. But I guess where we really disagree is with Jerri. I see her wanting to cause havoc in Ogakor. Make them vulnerable. To do this she really needs to side with Kucha or at least vote along their lines. And, she will take Amber with her. She is the key to Ogakor's block voting.

Hitting Ogakor (from Jerri's point of view): Should Keith, Colby or Tina go in E7, Amber and Jerri are even against Keith and Colby. Should Amber or even Jerri go, Jerri is finished in K/T/C's mind and Jerri would know it.

Hitting Kucha (from Jerri's point of view): The first premise is whether Kucha is together or not. If they are, then hitting Ogakor (from Jerri's stand point) is poor strategy unless she somehow aligns with Kucha. So, a five member Kucha alliance is strong either way. Jerri would last longer to switch to Kucha.

But if Kucha is 3-2, then things get complicated (permutation wise). One possibility is to hit the two member bond. Jerri does need the other Ogakors to do this unless a member of the two member Kucha bond is an obvious target. Someone that becomes bossy or whatever. Then Kuchas may also vote for that person. Alicia has shown the ability to "blow up," and Jeff at least appears capable of whining and possibly causing that sort of trouble.

Looking at a three member Kucha bond, this is a larger threat by numbers. Yet, Jerri again needs help to bust this up. As in the two member analysis above, this would help if someone were bossy, but it's not likely because we are talking about Nick, Rodger and Elisabeth. Three people that have been viewed as "socially" non-threatening.

Kucha 5-0, is tough for Ogakors I agree. Jerri either has to switch to Kucha or take her chances at a 5-5. The latter is where the "rules issue" comes in. If I were Jerri, I know I have votes against me and probably do not know about Kucha. I wouldn't want to set myself up that way. Could I trust K/C/T? I could easily be backstabbed by my former tribe and, I would think they would view me as capable of backstabbing them. If covering your butt is the key, I wouldn't trust Ogakor to do it for me.

5-4 in E8. So, I think to strategize E7, a look at E8 might help. IF a Kucha goes in seven, there is a low possibility that it is Nick, Elisabeth or Rodger IMO. That leaves 3-1 in Kucha (which could turn into 4-0). In this scenario, Ogakor would want to be stronger than 3-2, but again the trust issue. Jerri needs to claw her way to a more even status. Hit the larger bonds of the three member groups by either joining them or pulling members to improve her numbers with Amber. Nick may be possible, but the isolated Jeff/Alicia is better. Since I don't think Alicia would meld with Jerri, Jeff may be the better choice. No one in Ogakor will do it now. Since I don't see this possibility as a strong viability the option would be for Jerri/Amber to join Rodger/Elisabeth/Nick if possible. I think this to may be difficult.

IF an Ogakor goes in seven, and it's not Jerri or Amber, then Jerri will definitely know it's real trouble. She will be better switching to Kucha. But I think this should be set up in E7 not E8. E7's TC will reveal (possibly) where people are aligned vote wise.

I know there are more possibilities including the fact that immunity will affect all the possibilities. Jerri like the rest need protection. Her actions and statements are going to be keys for her. I don't see her toning it down, especially after E6 footage. I see her at least trying to switch to Kucha members and eliminate the Ogakor three. Amber is a key in this since she is a true follower and is also "socially" acceptable. She will go well with the Kucha "family" concept. Jerri could "ride" the flow. But will she?

The two days or so of the merger will tell a lot. They have to build a camp again. Just how will she act? How will she respond to the food issue? The cooking issue? If there's a reward challenge, how will this impact the vote? Plenty of unknowns here.

I see Jerri as the prime target comin in. All it takes is K/C/T convincing Kucha. Colby said if Kucha is solid then they will likely be picked off one by one. Amber said (or was it Tina?), she didn't want to be picked off one by one. Does Amber defect? Does Colby tell Jerri she must vote united? Does Colby defect? Tina defect? Just how solid is K/C/T?

The key to "giving Kucha back the advantage" is Jerri. Again, she wants to cause havoc. If she can switch to Kucha she will. I see it as her best chance for going deeper into the game. Ogakor does not know about Jeff's votes so they have to pick someone to hit. If carryover votes exist, this is Russian roulette and advantage Kucha. It may come down to another tie breaker. And do they really know all the rules (again)? There is no guarantee which 5 vote total will win. Jerri would be safe for at least another episode by joining Kucha and targeting Ogakor's three member group for at least one vote. That's covering your butt.

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brewerr 29 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 10:24 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"
there is a lot going on that we don't see, they had a whole tribal council E6 which we didn't see. So I'm sure Jeff knows the votes against him, they just weren't shown on tv.. the one being booted off, might not know how many, or who because they have to leave promptly.. but the rest get to know what happened.

the interview with the medic said eveyone had seen the medic mostly stress related.. so they aren't as alone out there as we think.

the move to a third camp, will be interesting, i wonder how hard it will be for kucha to share the food they won with the others..

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 04:13 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"
I was reading this thread thinking, "No, you're missing the point," but then, whew, the last few posts had some sense. I'm with most people in hoping the Kuchas win this week - but they won't. Yeah Ogakors are less united or likeable, but they are craftier than you think. They know the rules better than Kucha, and they know that this week is pivotal: if they stay together and can win a voting block, they'll be up 5-4 and can have a clean shot to the final 5.

I agree that Kucha will go after Colby and a savvy Ogakor will vote Jeff off the show.

What follows will be interesting. At some point the references Jerri and Colby have both made about infiltrating Kucha will take place. One of the 5 Ogies will join the remaining Kuchas to vote off a fellow Ogie. ANYONE except oh-my-god-Amber could be this person.

In fact........I wouldn't be surprised if the "Black Widow" thing is a trick........that Colby, tired of these "goons," is the one to turn on his tribe. But not until after Jeff is ousted in Episode 7 (damn, I liked the guy.......)

All this will lead up to a mixed ogie-kucha final four.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 04:25 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"
I wonder if Kucha will have any chickens left when they merge? I think they might eat them rather than share. Then they will be stronger for the IC. Yes they have the spices and the soup mix. But Ogakor does have the better fishing equipment.

I really believe Kucha will all vote together and Ogakor won't. This means someone from Ogakor is booted. I think it will be Colby or Jerri. But I am leaning towards Jerri. I just get the feeling that Keith lasts awhile with the Kuchas. And I can't get over the fact that Jerri may stab Colby in the back. She may hear the Kuchas are targeting him because of his strength and vote against him. She is a woman scorned. But Keith would be telling the Kuchas about evil Jerri. So it is a toss up for me.

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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 05:30 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"
<<I really believe Kucha will all vote together and Ogakor won't. >>

We're assuming this week that Ogakor is going to try being rational for once....Unlike the naive Pagongs, both tribes this year realize that they must vote as a block or risk being destroyed.

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666Advocate 17 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-01, 00:44 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"

>
>We're assuming this week that Ogakor
>is going to try being
>rational for once....Unlike the naive
>Pagongs, both tribes this year
>realize that they must vote
>as a block or risk
>being destroyed.


I disagree that Ogakor will get it together to vote as a block this week for two reasons.

1. Jerri and/or Keith will not be able to get past their ego to vote with the rest and will take this chance to try and oust the other.

2. MB said early on this group of Survivors made many of the same mistakes as their previous counterparts. Going into the merge I would think that would point to Ogakor voting based on their own rather than as a block - similar to how gretchen voted with her conscience. Kucha will pick up on the animosity between Keith and Jerri and whoever decides who they vote for will choose to make one of them (likely Jerri) the first cast off to destroy any chance of an Ogakor alliance. Colby may have been the first one being eyed up for eviction - but I think when he doesn't have to rely on the rest of the Ogakorians he will win immunity.

I also don't buy the 5 - 5 tie theory . I see a 7 -3 or 8 -2 vote for Jerri.

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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 11:42 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"

>We're assuming this week that Ogakor is going to try being
rational for once....Unlike the naive Pagongs, both tribes this year realize that they must vote as a block or risk being destroyed.
***It could so easily go either way, which is why this episode is going to be a b.itch to predict. You'd imagine they'd learn from the mistakes of the Pagongs and get it together. But the Ogakors have been so idiotically unorganized to date, what makes anyone think they'd get their act together post merger?


**************************************
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS
what it's all about???

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 06:36 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"
>I see a totally different outcome in E7. The Kuchas are going >to get totally blindsided by the scheming and manipulations of >the Ogas. Both tribes MUST see the need to identify themselves >as the dominant tribe, and a 5-5 vote is inevitable. The Ogas >will put their bickering aside (at least for a week or so), be
>on their best behavior, and do what they do best--scheme and >strategize.

This may well be true, and to be honest I hope that it is so that we do not see a repeat of last years show. However, I am not convinced that Jerri and Keith will be able to put their differences aside just yet. They may prove me wrong this week, but as of now I can only go by the facts as they have been show to us, which is strictly that Keith hates Jerri and Jerri hates Keith. If they put this hatred aside for at least a week and vote as a team then this will be one hell of a show. If not, we will see one of these two go out in a 6-4 vote, and the Oga's are for all intents and purposes through, as long as Kucha does stick together(which it is still possible that this could change, though we will see).


>The Kuchas have lost their leader and will make the mistake
>of trying to take out Colby (the strongest) as their
>first target. I don't think the Kuchas are fully
>aware of the tiebreaker rules since they have not had
>any ties at TC. Ogas will go into the
>merge with one goal: find out which Kucha has
>gotten votes at previous tribal councils. Once Jerri or
>Amber or Tina ferret this information out of Rodge or
>Liz, Ogas will have all they need to orchestrate the
>removal of Jeffy. That's how I see it.

I would agree that the Kucha's would target Colby since he is obviously their biggest threat. However, if they see that Jerri and Keith can not stand one another, and they are able to see that these two will not stand together in any way, then I believe that they will be smart enough to vote for someone other than Colby, simply because they would know that if they win this vote that they control the vote from here on out. I may be assuming too much about the Kucha's by saying this, and I may be assuming that the hatred between Jerri and Keith is actually more than it is, but I can only go by the facts as we have seen them. As they are, there is no way Keith will join Jerri in any sort of alliance, and there is no way that he will allow her to get any further in this game, if he has anything to do with it. This is strictly the facts as they have been given, and who knows what will happen this episode, which could change all of this completely.

>Is Jeff even aware that he
>has gotten TWO votes...remember back
>to E5 when the beautiful
>Kimmi was voted out?..When Probst
>read the votes, wasn't it:
>KIMMY , KIMMY , KIMMI
>, KIMMY with no achnowledgement
>of her vote against Jeff?
> I may be wrong
>on this one but that
>struck me as odd at
>the time. Was the
>missing vote edited out or
>omitted for a reason?
>Is this relevant?

I believe Jeff is not aware of that vote. It is my understanding that once the vote has gone in one way or the other, such that no other votes matter for that particular vote, they do not read the rest of the votes.

>What is the 3rd tiebreaker?
>I can see this as
>becoming relevant on a 5-5
>vote with Jeff vs Jerri.

Who has the most votes from previous tribal councils.

This would come into play if the Oga's do vote together as do the Kucha's. Whichever of the two having more votes in previous TC's would then be eliminated, in the fashion that Mitchell was.

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 06:46 PM (EST)
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19. "Tiebreak"

>>What is the 3rd tiebreaker?
>>I can see this as
>>becoming relevant on a 5-5
>>vote with Jeff vs Jerri.
>
>Who has the most votes from
>previous tribal councils.
>
>This would come into play if
>the Oga's do vote together
>as do the Kucha's.
> Whichever of the two
>having more votes in previous
>TC's would then be eliminated,
>in the fashion that Mitchell
>was.

I think the question was, and I ask this question also, what about if it is still a tie based on the previous votes? Jeff and Jerri each have 2 votes. How is this tie broken?

Also, is it "fair" if one tribe knows the tiebreak rules and the others don't? We know that Ogakor knows, because it happened, but they may have known anyway. In fact, if all tribemembers know this rule in advance, couldn't it be a possible explanation for Kucha having both votes unanimous - wanting the least vulnerabilty? Even sneakier - could "someone" have told Kimmi that they were voting for Jeff, so that he would get a second vote and that could be used against him later? Ok, ok, I'm crediting them with a lot of planning ahead and conniving...does this seem even a little plausible?

The main point, though, is that it seems unfair to have one tribe know the tiebreak rules and the other not. In any game, everyone should know the rules.

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-01, 07:01 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Tiebreak"
Sorry, you are right I misunderstood teh question.

I have been searching for those rules and can not find the rules for a 3rd tie breaker anywhere. If anyone has a link to the official rules that would be helpful here.

>The main point, though, is that it seems unfair to have one >tribe know the tiebreak rules and the other not. In any game, >everyone should know the rules.

No question about it. I highly doubt that the Kucha's have not been told the rules. I would guess that at some point or another they were given all of the rules for a tie breaker. However, the question is whether or not they will remember those rules. Obviously Oga will since it is very fresh on their minds, but whether or not Kucha can recall these is certainly up to speculation. I would think that at least one of them would recall these rules and would take them into account before deciding who they will vote for this week, but that is very difficult to say for sure. It could definitely play to the advantage of the Oga's, if they are able to somehow determine who of the Kucha's has recieved what votes.

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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-01, 00:46 AM (EST)
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25. "Glossary theory still holding"
I posted a glossary theory a while back that is still holding up. Theory being the names listed on the CBS website in the glossary section of each tribe list all the survivors by the number of votes they get throughout the course of the show, and if there is a tie for votes, they are in order of ejection.

So far, it would look like this:

Kucha: Elisabeth (0), Mike* (0), Alicia (0), Kimmi* (6), Rodger (0), Jeff (2), Debb* (7), Nick (0)

Ogakor: Jerri (2), Colby (0), Tina (0), Amber (0), Keith (5), Maralyn* (5), Mitchell* (6), Kel* (7)

If this theory works, it doesn't tell us bootee order, but can be used to create scenarios.

One is that Keith or Elisabeth don't receive any votes.

Combining the fact that there was an article that stated the last 8 are sequestered and kept an extra 5 days after the show, and that Elisabeth doesn't want her friends watching the show, it makes me wonder if she leaves the game from injury or is disqualified somehow.

Black widow possibility that fits this theory. What if Jerri seduces Nick into joing Ogakor alliance (since Eliz and Rodger are joined, and Alicia/Jeff are joined..thus Nick knows he will be the first to go once Ogakor are gone....then immediately the next week, Ogakor boots Nick....now that would bring reality to the Black Widow theory, and if the glossary theory is right, the bootee would have to have six votes, and the only one that would be able to fit that is Alicia.

Other aspect...if glossary theory is correct, there cannot be a tie, since the only person who can get more than 7 votes is Nick and a tie would mean at least that to two people....

Only other option I can think of that would make the theory work and allow a tie would be if Ogakor's list wraps..

I know this sounds confusing but it does make sense..I'm just not good at expressing it

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shanana banana 658 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-01, 11:58 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Ogas are smarter than you think"
LAST EDITED ON 03-05-01 AT 11:58 AM (EST)

I wondered about this in a previous post. I've always been against Jeff P. not reading out all the names at the TC's on the pretext that "it doesn't matter," but now we see that it really can matter. So if Kucha Jeff doesn't know that he received Kimmi's vote last TC, how can that be used against him in a tiebreaker? I think it's very unfair and I am interested to see how they resolve the issue.

Probst should just read every name out loud every time. At the very least that gives the tribe an indication of where loyalties lie, whose head may be up on the chopping block next, etc.

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my0wn 40 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 09:55 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
From what I have seen there are 4 mini alliances,

Jeff and Alicia
Liz and Roger

Amber and Jerri
Keith and Tina

That leaves Colby and Nick as swing votes because they talk to both sides. Colby has already proved that he does this. He felt he needed Keith around to help win challenges, now that they are merged Keith is a possibility for him. The question is does he dislike Jerri more.

I am not sure about Nick I can't read him. Both of them have the perfect opportunity to get whomever they want booted out, all they have to do is tell everyone that they know who has the most votes so far.

Also I don't think Colby is safe unless he wins immunity, they all have to know that if there is a physical challenge he can beat them all.

I agree that this show will be pivotal, there are so many things we don't know. I would love to know if they move to a new camp or choose one of the existing camps. I think the key is going to be who makes friends, which is the title for EP 8, if they have to set up a new camp Jerri's take charge ideas will rub Alicia and Jeff the wrong way. If they move into one camp it is possible for Jerri to come off good to Jeff and Alicia which would give them 4 in their alliance. No matter what I see Colby and Nick staying neutral.

I don't see a 5-5 tie and I don't see Jeff as the main target, although I do see him as a possible. I think we have to remember that these survivors don't fall into alliances and stay there like on the previous show. They change sides and pick different people at the last minute.

I think we need to do away with the false info though, like saying Jeff is the one to go just because Deb said she became friends with him. Also people say that Liz told her friends not to watch the show, but I have seen others say that Amber was the one who said that. As for the pics of the upcoming EP I think it is possible that they are from either challenge, I know Jerri has the immunity idol in her hand, but Liz isn't wearing her immunity head dress like she usually does at an IC. Also I don't think the pic that shows Keith and Liz together where she looks cold necessarily means her and Keith lost or that they are wet. Keith's shorts are the same shade in both pics, if those cargo shorts got wet wouldn't they be a bit darker or hanging different?

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RASH 19 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 12:18 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
JUST PLAYING DEVIL'S ADVOCATE HERE. ARE WE SURE THAT THE TRIBES ARE TRULY LOYAL TO ONE ANOTHER. I KNOW WHAT THEY HAVE SAID BUT NOW THEY MUST LOOK AT THE BIGGER PICTURE. I THINK THERE WILL BE A NEW ALLIANCE FORMED SPEAR HEADED BY JERRI. I AM SURE THE KUCHAS WILL WANT TO SEE FOR THEMSELVES WHAT JERRI IS ALL ABOUT AND REMEMBER KELLY VOTED OFF RUDY THINKING SHE HAD A BETTER CHANCE AGAINST RICHARD, SO THE BAD GUY DOESN'T ALWAYS LOSE. THEY WILL WANT TO GET RID OF THE STRONG, COLBY, KIETH, JEFF, TINA, ALICIA. ALL OF THEM SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE FORCES IN ANY PHYSICAL IMMUNITIES SO WHY NOT WEED THEM OUT ONE BY ONE. BY THE TIME THEY FIGURE OUT JERRI'S MASTER PLAN IT WILL BE TOO LATE. BE GENTLE.
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wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 02:05 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Earl Speculation for Episode 7........"
There have been no rumors of another tie, not that it makes a big difference on rumors but I agree that they will be looking ahead for themselves and not the total team. However I am curious if our thinking that they will immediately go after the strongest be off target for the 1st or 2nd week. I think if I was looking to make a long run I would try and make an alliance with some of the stongest people. Since the strongest have a good shot at the physical challenges they could win IC and not vote for whoever is in an alliance with them.

Also the E8 name is "friends" this gives me the impression that new friendships/alliances are made. And that one of the "friendships" we see now will turn on the other. Could the black widow reference be to the "spider" eatting their friend instead of their mate??

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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 12:19 PM (EST)
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31. "An observation on Nick"
Ep 6, after the helicopter flew off, there was a moment with the 5 Kuchas standing together. Jeff and Alicia were hugging, and so were Rodger and Liz. I remember watching Nick standing alone behind them, and I thought, here is how Kucha breaks out, we're seeing it just like it is. So I waited to see what Nick would do. After a few seconds hesitation, he started rubbing Liz's shoulders. Does that seem significant to anyone else? It really seemed to be Nick's choice what to do, no one was paying attention to him at that moment. Yes, I know many of you would choose to rub Lizzie's shoulders out of those four also....


-dangerkitty


"See me, feel me, touch me, heal me"

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ana128 17 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 02:04 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: An observation on Nick"
Dangerkitty,

He also gave Alicia a hug too.

ana

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dbjennings 11 desperate attention whore postings
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03-06-01, 08:07 PM (EST)
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34. "Tiebreaker Rules"
Forgive me if this has been posted elsewhere, I'm an old SS lurker who finally found a new home:

Are we sure that the votes from prior tribal councils are the tiebreaker? It makes sense to use this tiebreaker up until the merge, but shouldn't the slate be wiped clean when the new tribe is formed? Does anybody have a definitave answer on this one?

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