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"Jury Vote Speculation"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-01-10, 12:32 PM (EST)
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"Jury Vote Speculation" |
***SPOILER ALERT*** (Discussion includes Boot List and Final 3) Jury Vote Speculation
The Merge takes place this week and the first member of the 9 person jury will be determined. We are fairly certain we know who the Final 3 will be, and we believe the boot order of the jury members has been spoiled as well. How each juror will vote is something that will probably not be known until the finale and will remain a topic about which we can speculate until the end of the season. Use this thread to discuss the factors that will influence the final vote. Are jurors more likely to vote for members of their previous alliances? Will the betrayals that put them on the jury be viewed as good play or lying? Does likeability translate into votes? Will the jurors be influenced by the events they observe at Tribal Council? Will they vote against the least liked or for the best game play? Obviously each juror will have their own criteria and we can use this thread to speculate and discuss their personalities and the events that will influence their final vote. For Reference here is the boot order of the jury members: Alina Marty Brenda NaOnka Kelly S. Benry Jane Dan Holly Final 3: Sash, Chase, Fabio Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-01-10, 03:01 PM (EST)
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1. "Alina" |
Alina will become the first juror this week. She was never a member of the original La Flor alliance and remains an outsider. She will become a victim of NaOnka and Brenda’s scheming and will probably feel no loyalty to those associated with them…Chase and Sash will not be Alina’s first choice after she is voted off this week. In addition, Jud was friendly with Alina and Shannon in Episode one and has remained somewhat neutral, staying on the outside of the dominant alliances. So, at this point, it appears that Jud is most likely to get Alina’s vote.
Krautboy
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-01-10, 04:05 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Jury Vote Speculation" |
I would count Alina & Marty as "for sure" Jud and I would put Benry in Jud's column as well. I don't think any of the 3 of them will vote for the "chill alliance" members. Plus, I actually think Marty likes Jud. Holly & Jane -- I think they will both vote for Chase (Holly is bonding with him pre-merge & we know that Jane held bigger fish back for him, plus he's from NC). NaOnka? I want to say Chase -- she gives him her HII before she quits. So that is 3 Jud & 3 Chase. The toss ups: I'm pretty sure Brenda will not be voting for Sash because we know she holds grudges against those who vote her out -- not sure if she will forgive Chase or not, though. So, it is a toss up between Chase & Jud for her. Kelly S -- she hasn't made a single decision that we've seen, so I think she will vote for whoever Brenda tells her to. Dan -- we know he hates Sash and I imagine him being bitter against those who voted him out (chill alliance) which will include Chase. I think he will not fault Jud, because he got to the finals because of ICs, so maybe Jud. It's close between Jud & Chase. Even if Jud gets Dan's vote (which I think he will), that is only 4 votes. If Chase gets Brenda (and by extension, Kelly S.'s) then he will win. OT -- is it just me, or does anyone else think it is totaly BS that they are letting the quitters vote? It should be a 7 person jury, imo.
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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-01-10, 04:41 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Jury Vote Speculation" |
I originally thought it would be a close vote between Chase and Jud, especially if Chase was the one who cried about his dad at Final TC. But now that we know Jud's the one who cries -- plus everyone's cheering on his immunity run -- I think it's a slam dunk for Fabs. And I don't think being closely allied with Nay (and getting a "free pass" handed to him from a quitter) is going to win Chase any brownie points with the jury. Unless he really starts to show some game (strategic and/or social), it's hard to see Chase getting the votes.Here's my guess at this point (subject to change ): Alina: Jud (hates LaFlor alliance + respects immunity run) Marty: Jud (despises Sash -- wouldn't respect someone like Chase who doesn't take bold risks) Ben: Jud (respects physical game/immunity run; Sash and Chase betrays him) Brenda: Jud (will respect immunity run, plus Chase/Sash betrayed her) Kelly S: Whatever Brenda tells her (Jud) Nay: Would be ultimate irony if she votes Jud! That's what I'm learning toward, but Chase could obviously be a possibility too Jane: Chase, but Jud is a possibility, esp. if she feels she should have been kept to F4 vs. Dan/Holly Dan: Jud (had emotional family visit with his son and probably bonds with Jud; hates Sash and probably by extension Chase) Holly: Chase It'll be fun to watch the Ponderosa clips and read the post-game interviews now to look for clues on how the jury will vote! P.S. Kiki, I totally agree -- the quitters shouldn't get their $ or be allowed on the Reunion Show. I hope Nay gets booed!
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-04-10, 10:41 AM (EST)
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6. "Snort" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-05-10 AT 10:20 AM (EST)EPMB loves him some irony Sash's speech about Nay not getting any votes!! We have a new animal--The reverse $1 million quote! If you look at insider or ponderosa clips THANKS SQUID! it doesn't look like Alina will be voting for Chase Well her post boot interviews seem to show that Alina may have voted for Chase...we'll see Here's my take thus far: Alina: Chase (poss Jud) Marty: Jud Brenda: Jud (poss Chase) Nay: Chase Kelly: Jud (poss Chase) Benry: Jud (poss Chase) Jane: Chase (poss Jud) Dan: Jud Holly: Jud (poss Chase) I agree with OFG I think Jud runs away with it but right now at least I could see the above possible votes. It may be a close vote..hmmmm
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-08-10, 00:33 AM (EST)
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8. "Alina votes Chase?" |
emydi: It's interesting how Alina seems to have changed her opinion of Chase from the time of the insider clips to her post-game interviews. Do we take that to mean her opinion of Chase changed as she watched from the jury, or that the insider clips were more honest and her post-game interviews more practiced?On the other hand, the post game interviews were after the final vote, but before we are really supposed to know who the F3 are, so her including Chase in her list of favorites may very well indicate a vote for him. It will be interesting to see if Marty's post game interviews follow a similar pattern... Krautboy
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-12-10, 11:15 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Alina votes Chase?" |
Right now, I'm torn on the womens' votes All the men vote for Jud imhoI think Chase may have a better chance with most of the women (barring Brenda) after the 3 little pigs challenge and Marty vote I think it may come down to Kelly P and Alina. I know OFG and many others think it will be a blowout but I'm not so sure anymore. We'll have to see how the game plays out. (second choice right now imho) Alina Chase (Jud) Marty Jud--He figured out that Sash did not vote with him see the interviews thread They went with the "losers" Nay Chase Jane and Holly (he didn't even mention Kelly P!) Brenda Jud Nay Chase (Sash)I don't think she'll vote for Jud imho Kelly P Jud (Chase) Benry Jud Jane Chase (Jud) Dan Jud Holly Chase (Jud-he won his immunity at F4)
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-29-10, 04:02 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Alina votes Chase?" |
hmmmm after the recrap and what missaye is saying it could go down like this (2nd choice)All 3 men MBD vote Jud no ? imho Alina Chase (Jud) She is a tough call Brenda Jud (Chase singing the song??) Nay Chase Kelly P Jud (Chase what Brenda does??) Jane Jud (Chase-upset NC boy didn't give her Nay's HII) Holly Chase (Jud-he won his immunity at F4) 6-3 for Jud or if everything goes Chase's way and he gets all women's votes then its 6-3 for Chase I think this may be another 5-4 vote like Ozzy/Yul
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-11-10, 12:44 PM (EST)
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9. "Marty" |
Marty was voted out last night. Based on what we have seen so far, of his friendship with Jud, that's probably where his vote will go.As Kiki-k points out in the Ponderosa clips: "Nothing really spoilerish in the Ponderosa clips except I think we can def. put Marty down as a Jud vote. He said he wanted "guys who voted for Jane" to win. Since we know the final 3 the only one of them who voted for Jane tonight is Jud." Krautboy
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-11-10, 02:38 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Marty" |
I agree that while Marty might think Sash voted for Jane right after the TC (he says there are 5 guys who voted for Jane) he will learn that Sash did not vote for Jane. Brenda is going to be bitter when she is booted & she isn't going to hide who helped vote Marty out.
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LFJ 363 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-11-10, 02:48 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Marty" |
Whoo-eee. I agree. As powerful as Brenda thinks she is (based on her confussionals) if she gets axed the fur will fly. Everyone will know every deatil she knows - for sure.
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-11-10, 06:52 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Marty" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-10 AT 07:30 PM (EST)True, but I seem to recall missyae saying that Marty & Dan both hate Sash -- something like watch out how they both go off on him at TC. Also, couple that with Marty finding out that Sash didn't vote for Jane (as he thought after he was booted) and I'm confident Marty votes for Jud because: (1) He genuinely likes Jud; (2) He respects Sash's game play, but he also respects Jud's -- (so this is a wash); (3) Jud voted for Jane, not Marty -- thus showing he thought Marty's plan was good (and Marty's ego will like that); (4) Marty will respect Jud's immunity run. So, while Sash has the strategy part of Survivor down & Marty respects that, Jud has his own atypical strategy that Marty also respects, PLUS he has the social and physical game as well. Marty being "Survivor savvy" he will respect Jud's overall game more, imo. eta: and, btw, the more I'm seeing from both the Chase edit (little baby going wah, wah, wah) and Jud's, the more I'm leaning to a landslide victory for Jud -- something like 7-2 Jud or 6-3 Jud (the only votes Chase could possibly get are NaOnka, Jane & Holly. And the truth is, NaOnka may very well vote for Sash or hell, even Jud -- she is completely unpredicable imo). Marty said he was "just starting to get" Jud's strategy. I think the other players will start seeing that too and while they will respect Sash's strategy, that will "wash" with their respect for Jud's strategy. Plus, as I wrote above, beyond a strategy, Jud also exceled in the social & physical part of the game. His overall game trumps Sash's. Missyae also wrote at one point that Jud's social game is the best, he didn't make one enemy out there while he said that Sash read Russell's book on how to make it to the end and not win -- that tells me that Sash's social game isn't as good as he thinks it is and we know for a fact that his pysical game sucks. IMO, Sash has 1 out the 3 things needed to win Survivor (strategy); Jud, whether you like his stategy or not, definitely has 2 out of the 3 things to win.
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-11-10, 02:48 PM (EST)
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14. "Brenda" |
After last night's episode I'm also pretty sure Brenda will be voting for Jud as well. The clips we saw her discussing Chase were not flattering at all -- she called him a big baby -- which changed my ideas about their relationship. I don't think that indicates her voting for him at the end and that she will be bitter against him as well as Sash for backstabbing her.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-12-10, 01:50 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Brenda" |
I don't think Chase is a baby, I think he didn't trust Brenda too well and did a lousy job of hiding that, and Brenda in her arrogance and b!tchiness (which might be why Chase didn't trust her) misinterpreted it as insecurity, thus her "baby" remarks.
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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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11-12-10, 02:33 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Brenda" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-12-10 AT 02:46 AM (EST)Oh, I'm not saying that Chase is a baby, I'm saying that Brenda thinks he is -- and that, to me, means that she is not going to vote for him at Final 3. eta: and, btw, I agree with you that Brenda handled Chase totally the wrong way. As Stephen Fishbach points out in his People blog -- it is Brenda's job to make Chase feel safe, but she gives him the cold shoulder. Sash, otoh, was able to make the guys feel safe & not make himself a target. That is the aspect of Brenda's gameplay that irks me sooo much -- she acts like she is "entitled" to the win & everyone else just needs to shut up & follow her. Heck, for the last 2 episodes everyone has talked about "not annoying Brenda" -- good grief! What is she, the Queen of Sheba? {rolls eyes}
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LFJ 363 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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11-12-10, 11:00 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Brenda" |
NOOO! She's a cheerleader, and a paddleboard "vender"?? That sure sounds powerful to me. "People just come to me" (Brenda).
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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-12-10, 10:23 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Brenda" |
Good discussion! I've always felt that Brenda the paddleboarder will vote for Jud because a) I think she respects a good physical game and b) she clearly holds grudges so if Chase/Sash do indeed help vote her out, I think she won't forgive or let go easily. And she clearly disdains Chase at this point .Re Marty's vote -- here are a couple telling comments from one of his post-game interviews: Q.Gina, RealityWanted: You're tight with Fabio so maybe you can give me some perspective on him. Is he as dumb as he seems because as the weeks go on, I think he's getting smarter! A. Marty: I think my sense of him is that, for sure, there's a lot more going on upstairs with Fabio than he's letting on. I think it's great gameplay. It's fantastic. He's a great guy. I wanted to be around good, smart people that would play hard. Side comment: Marty's interviews all seems to have a moralistic bent -- who's worthy to go to the end, who's good vs. who lies, etc. Q.Gina, RealityWanted: What are you taking into consideration for a winner as a jury member? A. Marty: You have your favorites in terms of people who you like and how they played the game. You watch how they continue to play the game and see if it aligns with what your expectations of those people were. It's a pretty dynamic process. With each episode, you find out more and more because people come onto the jury and there are more experiences you don't see. I have a feeling this last bit must refer to what he learns later about Sash....even though Marty thinks Sash is smart/strategic, he must do something that doesn't "align with Marty's expectations." (Which would also tie in with the Missyae comment that Dan and Marty will probably still be mad at him at the Finale.)
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-22-10, 05:20 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Brenda" |
After being voted out, Brenda should feel some resentment against Chase and Sash. They are the two she said she was looking to save her, but they didn't.Brenda also felt betrayed by NaOnka...after NaOnka quits and gives the HII to Chase, Brenda will have no respect for Chase's game...after all he got to the finals using the Idol she helped NaOnka find. It appears that Brenda's vote will be the lesser of three evils, and go to Jud.
Krautboy
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katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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12-16-10, 11:54 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Jane" |
I agree with you about Jane, and I hope to see a landslide for Jud. I think the three guys (MBD) all vote Jud; Jane for SURE (based on exit interview and Ponderosa clips). Alina seemed to like Jud, but she also liked Chase, so she's a toss-up, imo. Don't know how anyone can predict Nay, since she is hot, cold and wet all over. Not sure about Brenda, Kelly and Holly - on the one hand, I find Jud so likable, I would think they do too. Otoh, Brenda and Holly both really liked Chase in game; so is his wishy-washy ness going to overshadow their first impression? Also, I am curious to see the dynamics of Holly's boot. I lean toward Holly voting for Chase.
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Travel_Queen 138 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-16-10, 01:25 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Jane" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-16-10 AT 01:25 PM (EST)I find this thread one of the most interesting and intriging on this board! I haven't visited any other spoiler sites, so I'm just going by what I've read here. Re: Jud and why I think he will get a landside jury vote. I found the quote from Marty that "he was just starting to realize Jud's strategy" very interesting, and I was wondering what that strategy was. Marty seems like a student of the game and would know all possible strategies played before. Could it be that Jud has been holding back not only his mental ability but also physical. For example: When the 3 returned from reward, Jud asked Chase in a very quiet way, "how was it Buddy"..and Chase said something like "oh it was great"..to which Jud replied.."it was a rhetorical question dude"...Chase "huh?" and Jud goes on to explain what he meant...not as stupid as he has been playing up. He goes on to explain how Chase had been on 4 rewards, and he hadn't been on any and he was just jealous. My theory is that Jud NOT winning reward challenges has been deliberate because his strategy is to NOT put that big ole target on his back..the other people can't be jealous of him, and he hasn't had to make the tough decision of who to take, thereby he hasn't had to alienate anyone. But now at F6, with no HII to hide behind, and no more reward challenges..he will not hold back and win the most important challenges. His gameplay of not showboating, not been sucky, not alienating anyone, and hiding his mental and physical abilities will gain the respect of the other players. Jud will get all votes even Holly's and Naonka I think.
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princat 77 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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12-16-10, 11:50 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Missyae SPOILERS final vote" |
That's ok. Thanks for clarifying.
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