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As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"First Boot Speculation:"
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-12-09, 04:10 PM (EST)
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"First Boot Speculation:" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-12-09 AT 04:12 PM (EST)From the dynamics shown in previews, it seems that Foa Foa is the tribe going to Tribal Council. Who is safe? We know Russell H. must stay a while to earn his reputation of the "biggest villain ever." He does get off to a fast start as seen in this promo transcript (Thanks Survivor Fever) Announcer: The first night on Survivor, castaway Russell shares an amazing story Russell: I lived in New Orleans...the water was rushing in like... Female tribemates: Awwwww. Oh God. Announcer: But his story is untrue. Russell <in confessional>: I never lived in New Orleans. You can break their hearts by telling them a lie. Using Katrina may be worse than Fairplay using his grandma but that wouldn't be enough to earn him the title. We also see Russell making some alliances: Jaison is in Russell's alliance so he should be safe. Ben and Ashley, Russell's dumb short haired blonde, are safe. Natalie, Russell's even dumber long haired blond, is safe. As TDT speculates, these vidacps show Ashley and Natalie in challenges that aren't from episode #1.
CBS gives us the two targeted players, trying to stop Russell: Marisa and Betsy are in danger. A look at Russell's body language in the following vidcaps is a big hint on how he feels about each woman: Friendly demeanor with Betsy. Confrontational posture with Marisa. If we add TDT's report that Mick returned with significant weight loss, the only Foa Foa players that we have no indications from are Liz and Mike. Either could be the first boot but Jiffy tells us that Liz could go far while Mike should have time to make friends. I think Marisa is the first boot of Survivor Samoa
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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-12-09, 04:29 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
Great spec, michel. I don't find anything that would disagree with a potential Marisa boot. The OFG rule also fits as Marisa is all over the previews.
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sddorme 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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09-13-09, 03:13 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
I think that the first boot is very unpredictable. Russell H. will be a fun person to watch and even if they show him make an alliance with someone, he'll probably back stab them. But there are people making it past ep 1, so it narrows it down to Mike, Marisa, Betsy, Jaison, Ben, Mick, Liz, and maybe even: Russell H.
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sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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09-13-09, 01:58 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
Marisa seems like a likely choice. JP says she's out before Ep 5, and says that she has some of the qualities to do well in the game, but it never takes off for her. She says "He may be the devil incarnate" - although the clothing she is wearing at this confessional is different that the above photo with her interaction with Russell. Marisa was also one of the puzzle solvers, and may have be responsible for Foa Foa's failure to win IC.TDT speculates that Galu wins because the photos indicate Foa Foa is shown after the TC, and it is usual to follow the losing tribe back to their camp. From the transcript of the video promo at Survivor Fever Transcript: Announcer: This Fall on Survivor, evil has a new name... Russell H.: My tribe will believe anything I tell them because they're just stupid. Announcer: ...Russell. Russell H.: If I can control how they feel I can control how they think. Announcer: Who on the island can stop him? Marisa, the college co-ed? Marisa: I'm starting to feel like he's pretty slimey. Announcer: Or Betsy, the police officer? Betsy: I usually can get a pretty good read on somebody. Announcer: No one is safe on the new Survivor. Russell: <evil cackle> This seems to be more evidence that Marisa is first off. I read somewhere that Russell tries to weaken the tribe thru spoiling the rice and hiding the flint in anothers bag - weakening someone in the tribe enough to quit, and casting suspicion away from himself. (Rather than performing poorly in ICs.) Moreover, he is going to lie a lot ... and break alliances - so is his alliance with Ashley, Ben and/or Natalie all that save? I was going to consider Natalie (the evidence in S18 indicated the Crazy Sandy was going home first, and JP said Carolina was too cute to be voted off first - and we know how that turned out), but TDT shows her in a future challenge (Ep 3). So Natalie is safe. Okay, I've taken myself around in circles ... and have to agree that the evidence indicates a short stay for Marisa. But I'm still not 100% convinced ... it's too neat.
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Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-14-09, 08:22 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-14-09, 01:59 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
OFG theory has been refined and mutated a lot since it began with Krautboy picking up on something I noticed back in Survivor Africa. The editing has changed a lot since then too.For what little it matters, the original theory was in the negative. If someone is not given a good shot in the promos (any promo, not just the one post show), then they are safe. There have been maybe one or two times that the bootee was barely seen, one being Sarah in Marquesas, one more recent. The thinking was simply that promos are more than misdirection, which is how we were treating them. They are also ads for the general viewer that should give the viewers some exposure to the person before the boot episode. A subsequent point I noted way back then was that the bootee may be shown prominently but not always in danger. Some took that as "look for the person who is shown being safe" - but that doesn't work consistently. Depends on whether the editors want to highlight the person't vulnerability or disguise it that week. In general, the boot story will be hinted at in the promos, but not always the first episode. However it seems like they want to start off with a big story this time -- Russell. Marisa did appear in the very first promos questioning Russell. Normally the first promos feature people who will be somewhat important to the game, and a character or two who don't have long for the game and need some exposure. In Gabon, Sugar was featured, and turned out to be F3 although she sure seemed like early boot material. Carolina's boot had no real story. It was her or Sandy and she got a little bossy. It was a blip on the overall story arc of the opening and there was no reason to feature her much. That said, I went to Phoenix and looked at last season, and very interesting. Will put some caps in next post. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_file s/4759d0923e5ccdb5.jpg
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-14-09, 02:15 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
LAST EDITED ON 09-14-09 AT 02:43 AM (EST)michel, LOVE your post, thank you for putting this together, very convincing. For reference, re the OFG theory and last season first boot (which I missed because most everyone here assumed that Coach's team went to TC due to happy faces after a challenge): The First Impressions promo showed Erin and Brendan (Friend or Foe), Jerry and Sierra (Ally, Enemy?), then a transitional sequence and came back with this: Who would you trust?
This was followed by most of the players reflected in this drum, but only Carolina's shot has another player in it. Look they put the first boot and the winner together, with Carolina looking distressed and JT standing solidly behind her. Interesting image. Not that we could have known what it showed in Ep 1. In fact, the who would you trust was captioned here as a shot of Carolina, but in hindsight we know that trusting JT was the thing that lost Timbira the game, so that was a big clue we didn't know how to recognize. Sneaky. ETA here is the Ep 1 vidcaps topic from Tocantins: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7130.shtml Not too much I would pick up on re Carolina other than that hindsight shot. Yes, there is a little body language with Taj as they are working on the shelter, but it's very subtle. Last season, they storyline of Ep 1 was the big First Impressions Exile. As neither of Sierra or Sandy got the boot, Carolina really had very little story. If Samoa's first boot is a part of this big Russell story they're developing, say it is Marisa, then I think they would show more. Betsy is just about Jeff's favorite casting choice, so I think we might see more of her if she were going out right away. Also in Jeff's preview he said Marisa will get in with the wrong people and be in trouble ... I guess anyone against Russ is the wrong people. He did not say she WAS out by Ep 5. He didn't know at that point. He was just saying Ep 5 or 6 to indicate the people he didn't think would make it very far.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-14-09, 08:28 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
OFG, that's a very interesting vidcap from last season that you found there. It has me looking through this season's vidcaps to find one with that kind of special effects!! No luck.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-14-09, 10:30 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
michel, when I saw that I was shocked. It was blatant yet impossible to guess its significance at the time, only if we had gone back later in the game to look at those first promos.Well, now we have a promo showing Russell allying with Marisa, Natalie, and Ashley, his "dumb girl alliance." (must see video) http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=SPsurvivorvideos#play/uploads (Thank you Phoenix, for putting it on Youtube where we don't have to watch CBS's commercial.) It's very possible that Marisa is one who begins to see through R, possibly compares notes with Betsy, and that could lead to what michel calls the confrontational body language scene. Have you guys scene VG's Handy Dandy Russell Alliance Scorecard? While any one of his alliances could crumble, I don't think Betsy will make it far, because a) as Georjanna mentioned, Jeff revised his assessment of her to say if she gets a chance, which is huge, given he assessed her as potential winner in first impressions. b) His EW interview mentions Shambo as the season's memorable female character, and Jeff also liked Betsy as a "real person" - so I have no doubt if Betsy had played out as Jeff envisioned she would have made his great character list of Russell H, Jaison, Ben, and Shambo.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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09-15-09, 05:22 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
Agree, sol, good points. After seeing the alliance video I found the stare down less convincing, even though michel has pointed out the passage of time. Yes, we know Marisa is going to figure out he's diabolical. Also Marisa says her downfall is that her face shows every emotion, so she can't BS Russell.Betsy, however, could be a more formidable threat and could hook up with Liz. We see that Russell doesn't respect the young girls, but he might respect an older cop's ability to mess up his game. It's a coin flip for me at this point, and suspect it will stay that way.
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kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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09-16-09, 03:21 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: First Boot Speculation:" |
Which will probably happen. I haven't got the boot right for the last few seasons in the SOTS.
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