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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 08:33 AM (EST) "Pre-F6 boot discussion" This week will either be a predictable boot, Debbie, or not...Clearly, Debbie is all over the promos. I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread to hash this out and perhaps come to some sort of mutual consensus. Clearly, with the help of the F4 Spider Challenge, we know that JT and Taj are safe this episode. With the title of the next episode referencing the Martyr, "the Martyr Approach", coupled with the challenge shot of Coach that is not amoung the challenge shots for this episode, we can rule out Coach as the boot this episode. So, that leaves the boot candidate choices as Debbie, Erinn, or Stephen. With the way this season has gone, I do think there are odds than any three of these could indeed be our boot. Clearly, Stephen is the long shot, but like Mine that Bird, we know that long shots can pay off...he is all over the promos this week as well. We know he has a HII in his possession, but like Stephen, will he have it and not play it? Will he win the IC, or will JT? He is the paranoid player, and Jiffy warned about that at the end of tribal council last week. Will his paranoia be his demise? Debbie is the "saavy player" that is seen working it, committing to Stephen and JT, supporting and enabling Taj, perhaps in the RC, and suggesting a Coach boot, showing that she is more committed to Stephen and JT than to Coach. Yes, this would fit old alliances that crumble and new ones forming. She is desparate and will do anything to stay...she is a pawn, and always has been. So, the question is, will her efforts pay off, and will she replace Erinn in the "power alliance" or not? She is the expected target of the power alliance of Stephen, JT, Taj, and Erinn, so it would follow that she has the best odds. But, because she is the expected boot, could that in and of itself point to her safety? While I am not basing my vote on this, I do think it should be mentioned that there have been spoilers for her that say she makes it to the family visit episode, which this does not appear to be... A case for an Erinn boot. Clearly, there is no obvious reason where the lay viewer would have reason to suspect that Erinn could be in danger. But from the last episode: Stephen: My immediate thought was complete panic. I am very scared of a Timbira resurgence. Ultimately, we know that we’re going to have to betray Debbie and Coach and, to do that, we need them on our side.” (Could this rationale still apply this episode?) Regarding Erinn in the last episode...we have our journey player, or perhaps as michel noted long ago, a possible winner. She started out alienated, no friends, boyfriend dumped her and now she is finding herself able to make her own decisions, able to land in the F4 "power alliance", clearly, she is showing tremendous growth and progression...is it enough to win? As OFG has pointed out, I do not see how the majority of the Timbira's on the jury would vote Erinn over one of the underdog, Jalapao's. So I do not see her as a winner. Then there was this from Coach..."just let me work on JT, there's nothing to worry about with you, me, Stephen, and JT in the F4...(notice how egocentric Coach is here and again he is going to push JT, to validate for him that he did make the right choice with trusting JT, the warrier, in his mind. He will try and manipulate JT with guilt…the question is, how influential is Coach to JT, and why does JT want to string Coach along? Will Coach be able to work on JT this episode and keep him to the plan...Sierra, then Erinn?? We know that Stephen hates erratic players, and prefers the predictable ones…with that in mind, I recall when Stephen questioned Erinn’s loyalties…”Taj: Erinn's with us. She just feels like none of them care about her so why should she care about them?” But, later at TC, Erinn proceeded to vote for Stephen, proving that Taj was wrong about Erinn. If Erinn was with them and didn’t care about them, she would have gone along with the plan and voted out Sierra. Clearly, she had been informed of the vote target. Clearly, she did not forewarn Stephen, that her vote wouldn’t be to Sierra but to him. Now, that, to me, is indeed an erratic player. But, this would indeed be a big blindside(but not as big as Stephen!) and I don't know if the hype was there to support it this week...yet, the Brandon boot week, the question was, who is the power player? I am still really on the fence with this one...and would love to hear more discussion...   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion PepeLePew13 05-07-09 1  RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Brownroach 05-07-09 2  RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion goldenmike4393 05-07-09 3    RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-07-09 5        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Brownroach 05-07-09 8            RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-07-09 13  RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-07-09 4    RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-07-09 6        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-07-09 9        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion michel 05-07-09 15        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-08-09 16    RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion goldenmike4393 05-07-09 7        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-07-09 10            RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Brownroach 05-07-09 11                RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-07-09 12        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion goldenmike4393 05-07-09 14  RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-08-09 17    RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-08-09 18        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-09-09 19            RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Outfrontgirl 05-09-09 20                RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion michel 05-09-09 21                    RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-09-09 22                        RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion michel 05-10-09 23                            RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion Flowerpower 05-10-09 24

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 09:15 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" >While I am not basing my vote on this, I do >think it should be mentioned that there have been spoilers >for her that say she makes it to the family >visit episode, which this does not appear to be... Why wouldn't this episode have the family visit? We saw Taj getting to see Eddie and family on the videophone -- and we know in the past that we've been teased with merely getting a video of a family member(s) and the contestants start to think that's all they get... then they bring out the family member(s) for an actual visit. I believe they'll bring out all of the family members for a visit or at least get a glance at them. Good outline, FloPo. This is one of the toughest episodes we've had in some time, and right now, I'm leaning towards Debbie because I haven't seen anything to suggest that Erinn is on the outs with Stephen (I'd think they would show some kind of confrontation whether mild or major in the previews, if it were up to me to edit the show). If there was a hint that Stephen was perturbed by Erinn's vote, I'd have a hard time believing they wouldn't show the tiniest sliver of a clue about this. Stinky Musings <--- blog's been updated!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 10:05 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" LAST EDITED ON 05-07-09 AT 04:49 PM (EST) will she (Debbie) replace Erinn in the "power alliance" or not? I don't get how this notion came about. "Replace" Erinn to do what -- help them boot Coach? JT/Steven/Taj don't need Debbie at all at this point. JT/Steven are very methodical players who've drawn a straight line to the end of the game, and Erinn is in their F4; they've both said as much. Now if Erinn is caught pulling a backstabbing move this week, or if Steven is angry that she voted for him, then it's possible that she might get booted. But there has been nothing in the previews or promos or clues that even vaguely hints that either of those things will happen. I guess it's possible that CBS decided to completely omit all reference to a potentially interesting turn in the story this week, but that is not their usual m.o. Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think this is a hard week to figure out. A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 05-07-09, 12:46 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" First, let me say that I joined this group because I consider FloPo essential reading when betting on Survivor! You have succinctly argued both sides and should be an attorney preparing an appellate brief for the Supreme Court. But, my analysis comes down to body language because it doesn't lie. I also fall back on the truism "actions speak louder than words". Words are a very different story. THE LOOK ON STEPHEN'S FACE AT LAST TC I saw the look on Stephen's face during last TC when Erinn's vote AGAINST Stephen was read, and I pronounced Erinn DOA. ACTIONS OF ERINN She can proclaim her allegiance as much as she wants (words) but her actions tell another story when voting S - T - E - P - H - E - N . Make all the footnotes you want, child, you are OUT. We will see tonight.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 03:44 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" Why thanks so much for the compliment, goldenmike! You are far too kind....Let's face it, Mr. Roach carries alot of weight around here. He is usually right on target with these things, and one of the main reasons I am conflicted with this episode. And, I agree, for all intents and purposes, Debbie should be an easy boot this week. But, as you so succintly noted, the body language indeed spoke volumes to me as well. We have heard her stating that she is making her own decisions now, and she is putting them into action when she votes against her alliance, and not by their directive. We have also heard her loyalty come into question on more than one occasion, by Stephen, no less. We were shown Erinn telling Sierra that she would not vote for her that night for a reason...was it to point out that she neglected to tell Stephen that she wouldn't vote for Sierra, but she would vote for him? Those things were left in there for a reason, imo, and I can not dismiss it. Clearly, it's to arouse doubt...but, you are right, the non-verbal communication is a different story. Regarding the family visitors, yes, Pepe, last season I remember that Bob went off with the video to view in private and his wife showed up...but, I think we got some forewarning somewhere...perhaps, Jiffy's preview video...Ok, so I went and found the vidcap thread for the promos for the family visit episode. All of the daws were shown a snippet of the family from home videos, Bob won and then his wife joined him. When they were at camp, all of the others came, and we were shown vidcaps of them seeing their loved one's videos, as well as their faces when the loved ones approached camp. Clearly, we got it that they were going to be there that episode. We also got teasers regarding "marriage proposal"...which indeed referred to Matty. So, there were no surprises there. This episode is not so clean cut. No signs of a family member, other than Taj's husband on the video. I am doubtful that they will be here this ep, I expect them next episode, but I could be wrong. If Debbie does leave tonight, I still favor Stephen for outlasting Erinn, as I think he's on to her.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 04:32 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" LAST EDITED ON 05-07-09 AT 04:46 PM (EST) Just one thought about the loved ones' visit, FloPo -- the spoiler only says that Debbie's husband left the country, it doesn't say that she saw him in Tocantins. I think we knew from a past installment that, because of the game timetable, they sometimes have to fly over a "surplus" loved one who won't see their corresponding contestant because that contestant will have been booted in the interim. So if the loved ones' visit is next week and Debbie gets booted this week, that could have happened. (If the spoiler has any accuracy.) A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 05:41 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" True indeed, BR. But, maybe I'm being a bit stubborn regarding the editing this season. There is something about Debbie and "her kids" that would indeed fit with a family visitor of some kind. That would be a nice wrap to her story...I could indeed be so far off!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 03:36 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" You clearly are awsome at this, FlowerPower! Adding the spoilers TDT has compiled on Debbie: 1) Her husband left the country during the time she was on Survivor. I think that's all we know about that. That it was for family visit seems clear enough. I thought this week was NOT family, as they have had videos and then family later before, but in the new press photos, Taj is wearing a roomy orange T-shirt. Taj has been clothing deprived all season, and now she has an orange shirt that might fit an ex football player, so, hmmm. That Debbie spoiler may be coming to fruition. 2) Debbie supposedly told a friend (as reported by friends of friend) that it was the hardest 37 days of her life. 37 is an interesting number because as we know the show is 39 days. 37 is F4 in a game with a F2 ending. Of course Debbie could have said something misleading, or the friend heard wrong. TDT has Debbie as likely TOAST this week, despite both of these spoilers. He has said he doesn't know. He has Erinn at risk, which is better than toast. Stephen - I read a snippet of an interview with him and cannot remember where (by Andy something?), wherein he says that he enjoys backstabbing so much he worries he would backstab someone just for the fun of it, not out of logic. So ... it sounds to me like he needs little or no reason to cut Erinn. Or Debbie. He could do something just to do the unexpected. He really doesn't need either of them at this point; he only needs their votes. The only way Stephen is in trouble is if Taj or JT dumps him, and I do NOT see Taj dumping him AND JT to be with Coach, Debbie, Erinn. Nah. Nor JT. He and Stephen have a good thing going right now, Sure it would be a big move to ditch Stephen, but the numbers just aren't there. There has not been a deadlock tie before F4 since the purple rock solution sent Pascal out of the game. Everyone knows this vote needs FOUR people, and the only four people bloc available is Stephen + JT + Taj + the player who convinces them to let them stay around. As I said in my Erinn vote, I don't see Erinn playing that hard, She thinks she has it made. Debbie is doing everything. She is cutting Coach loose. Yes, she is a dangerous player and devious, but Stephen likes that she plays logically. Why would CBS not show Erinn in danger? Well, they already have Coach as the misdirection. I think they would like some surprise left in the game, as the ending is starting to look all too predictable. Every once in awhile they hide a boot. It could be Debbie. She's totally set up to go. But it will not be in the least surprising. The promo people could have thrown in a lot more Coach misdirection if Debbie is going.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 04:05 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" OFG...you are the master at this stuff, and clearly, I stand in great company! Thanks for the heads up on the press photos...thought I'd post them in hear as the vidcap thread is approaching epic proportions...thanks to Survivor Phoenix... No doubt about it, we must be getting a new star tonight, Eddie George...that has got to be his shirt...so, I am beginning to think that they will all be there afterall...   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 04:44 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" Thank you, FloPo! Not seeing you had done this, I just posted the ones that interested me in the vidcaps thread, with some commentary. I wonder now if Taj sacrifices her full length video so the others can see their videos, and is rewarded like Matthew in the Amazon with her husband appearing. Or they could have all the LO appear in person, which has been the pattern recently. A waste to fly them all in and only see one, like they did in the first two seasons. Although I think that was more effective as a reward.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 06:41 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" Thanks for these FP. These pictures really make it look as if the boot discussion will only be Debbie vs Coach and since Coach isn't going anywhere... I was hoping to see pictures of Debbie plotting with Taj alone or with erinn but if JT and Stephen are involved, the game won't change this week.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-09, 01:41 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" LAST EDITED ON 05-08-09 AT 01:42 AM (EST) well, the game did not change at all this week except for people who thought Coach was going, pretty much no one who spoils. Next week will be straightforward too. Coach is out of there and Erinn will be the misdirection. At F4, immunity will be huge, especially if Erinn wins it, leaving the Jalapao no choice but to turn on Taj ... and it could be a tie, and MAYBE the idol would still be in play, we don't know. JT or Stephen could be knocked out. If Stephen or JT win F4 immunity I think it will be straightforward that Erinn goes, no idol played. Then to Final 3; that is one I think JT could win, whatever it is, and so could Erinn, and Stephen probably needs someone to take him. Could be Rob C and Rafe all over again, but I'm rooting for Stephen. I know michel likes Erinn's edit, but honestly I will be super disappointed if she wins. IMHO only Stephen or JT deserves to win this game; they are the players.   Top

goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 05-07-09, 04:26 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" I expect Eddie George to show and I suspect there was some agreement with his agent about publicity (because of appropriating his name or likeness without compensation could become a legal matter between the Georges and CBS). I said BUH BYE to ERINN last week when Stephen's name was read. It's a coin toss on Immunity because JT does his own books and Stephen attended Yale. It is fourth grade math... so? Another hint was "read a book", so it's a guess.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 04:46 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" I still think that Georjanna's guess on Nash as the book, and Squid's spec that they will use cooperative game theory to bust out the challenge, makes sense. If the two of them agree to each memorize half of those ten operators, and share, and then have a duel on the math, they could easily beat all the others who have to run the course more times. I think JT might win the immunity, but it will be Stephen's brilliant idea.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 04:57 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" LAST EDITED ON 05-07-09 AT 04:57 PM (EST) But would they have enough time or even the opportunity to plan that after JP gives the instructions? It just so happens that they're competing next to each other, but they probably won't know what lanes they're in until right before the challenge starts. Plus I think it would be against the rules. (Though we know how lax they are about rules when they want to be.) A tribe glows in Brooklyn   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-07-09, 05:36 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" They would have to figure out in mid-challenge, I think, possibly after one run when they see it's hard to remember the signs. It's just a guess as to what JP means when he says that brilliance wins the challenge. The math is so simple. Against the rules? I think that individual immunity is so coveted that they don't need rules, normally, to prevent people from collaborating. Competitive spirit takes care of that. People make agreements to work together if one drops out; that's a type of collaboration.   Top

goldenmike4393 303 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 05-07-09, 06:10 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" I sort of swerved into this one! Here's some substantiation. http://www.athletepromotions.com/athletes/Eddie-George-appearance-booking-agent.php   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-09, 07:29 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" Well, I guess we answered this question...This week will either be a predictable boot, Debbie, or not... So, Survivor is taking the predictable route...then I might guess the scenario from here on out...Coach, Erinn, Taj, JT, Stephen...hopefully there will be some surprises left in store! Great job for all of you that held your ground with a Debbie vote! So, why was that scene highlighted with the editing if it were to be dismissed? Will it rear up later in the story...Erinn vs. Stephen, perhaps? Not long to go!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-08-09, 04:12 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" Like I said above, I think immunity is the remaining wild card that could create an upset, along with the idol, if it is good at F4, and depending on who really claims it. If Erinn were to pull a Jenna Morasca type late game run, she has every ability to knock either JT or Stephen out at the end. Otherwise, I think they will be loyal to each other. If one of them backstabs the other, I will be kind of sad to see it.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-09, 04:50 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" If Erinn were to pull a Jenna Morasca type late game run, she has every ability to knock either JT or Stephen out at the end. Otherwise, I think they will be loyal to each other. If one of them backstabs the other, I will be kind of sad to see it. I agree, OFG, I agree...   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-09, 07:40 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" However, after watching the Insider Clip from last ep where Stephen debates Debbie's F3 promise, as someone else noted here, he says it's not necessarily good for him to have Debbie promising to step down at F3 because he may not want to be in F2 with JT. Stephen wants to win the game, no question, and his biggest threat now in terms of popularity and best player vote is JT. He would probably prefer to be F2 with Erinn, who defected from her tribe and gave the other side a majority. Not sure how or if he can manage that. Someone else's immunity run would be one way; playing the idol at F4, if JT is not immune and it's still viable, would be another, but boy would JT be unhappy. I think JT is more comfy with Stephen around because Stephen has always been willing to appear as the subordinate.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-09, 08:50 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" I think the editing gave us a clue as to what will happen at F4. It was in the first scene after the opening credits.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-09-09, 10:04 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" I think the editing gave us a clue as to what will happen at F4. It was in the first scene after the opening credits. Yeah, I think you guys may be right...Stephen and Erinn both received votes as the one least likely to make it, the weakest link of their tribes...and Jiffy would indeed love that, as it fits the theme of the show...first impressions.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-10-09, 01:39 AM (EST) 23. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" Yes, there was that clue in the first episode. I find it very interesting how you tied that into the present situation. However, I was talking about a clue in the latest episode.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-10-09, 10:18 AM (EST) 24. "RE: Pre-F6 boot discussion" OHHHH! Taj making fire while JT didn't? Well, we did see how it was indeed shown that Sugar and Bob practiced making fire, while Matty did not...hmmm...?   Top

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