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"Post-Tyson Boot Discussion"
byoffer 15947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 08:30 AM (EST)
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"Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Now that the Warrior-Alliance (WA) is broken, the real strategizing will commence. It would seem that we are actually going back to Timbira vs Jalapao, with Sierra as the swing vote.What we know: - Coach and Debbie are locked together. I don't think Debbie has shown anything but go along for the ride. - Stephen and JT are locked together. This is different from Debbie riding Coach. These two are a good equal team. Their strategy to send one of them to Exile just in case there was another immunity shows that they are really playing a smart game. - Taj would seem to go with Stephen and JT, although to be honest her edit has gone colder than last night's IC. - I had thought Erinn was on the outs from everyone after Joe left, but last night she seemed to be with Coach in piling on Sierra. Her value (to Coach) may have just gone WAY up as he will need her vote. Is she desparate for an alliance and will she feel Coach is her best bet to get a little further in the game? Dunno. - Now that the WA is broken, will Coach trust JT at all? Will JT be able to talk his way out of the inevitable confrontation with Coach? I think not. As Coach showed us with his comments to Sierra last night, he has no trust for someone who doesn't go along with him. - Thus I think that it will be C/D/E vs JT/Taj/S, and Sierra suddenly goes from the chopping block to all powerful. So what will Sierra do? Can she be better than 4th in either of the alliances? - I don't see her getting ahead of Taj in the Jalapao alliance. - Maybe she can do better in the Timbira alliance than Erinn, who really previously didn't seem tight with Coach. I was really interested that Sierra, despite all the venom from Coach, Tyson, and Debbie, spent most of the (shown) time pleading with them, rather than negotiating with Jalapao. She was really playing the "I made a mistake" card more than the "I am not loyal to Timbira" card. - Is there another game-changing alliance coming? Erinn certainly seemed to have a much bigger edit last night. Was that because she is gone next week, or because she is becoming a player?? Could she sense that there are other power blocks (Coach/Debbie and JT/Stephen) and decide now is the time to create a Sierra/Erinn/Taj alliance? - Who are the targets? I would think JT is the clear target on Jalapao, as a serious challenge threat. Is Coach a target or desirable foe in the final? I am sure that Probst wants to hear Coach get to speak to the jury! If not Coach, then if I was Jalapao I would go after Erinn (over Debbie) as Debbie's vote should be very predictable. - Will the remaining HII ever come into play? We know that Stephen has it. He would certainly give it to JT. hmmm. So what do you think? Who's next? What alliances will hold/form? What will Sierra do?? It's Bachelor Love, which is like Monopoly Money in that it has no actual value outside the game. - frodis
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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 08:44 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Stephen may have possession of the HII, but he better remember something about it........ He's only holding it because Taj couldn't think of a place to hide it herself, since it really is hers.........
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 09:19 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
I don't know if she will see this, but Sierra can extend her time by first going with JT/Taj/S, to vote out one of C/D/E (say, Erin) this week, and again by switching sides and voting with C/D to try and vote out one of the JT/Taj/S, say JT (OK, unless they swung a vote it would be a tie, but still, a tie for her might present a reasonably good chance at staying, and JT just might be the one to go). Not much use predicting beyond F5, but from Sierra's perspective, just being in the game two episodes down the road is a really positive thing. And at that point an argument can be made that any of the others could be a bigger target. Getting Debby out and JT out should be the objective of everyone, JT for the Challenge threat, and Debby because no one could win against her at F2. May Taj too. Of course, Coach would be the best opponent at F2 for anyone, especially if Sierra, Erin, and even Taj and JT are on the jury.
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travelinglemur 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-24-09, 10:50 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
In my opinion, I don't think Sierra holds the power at all. I think it is all misdirection. I don't think Erin will stick with Debbie and Coach. From her confessionals last night, it seems obvious that she's switching over to the other alliance. Plus, the episode before last night, showed her making an alliance with JT. So I really think that what we have now is a four-person alliance - JT/S/Taj/Erin against Coach and Debbie, with Sierra just floating along.
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 11:04 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Welcome to the forum, guy with a complicated Traveling name, welcome.It is worth considering that maybe Erin isn't on the coach/Debbie team. In her confessionals she does seem to take a practical approach to the game which means she could go either way, and she has a history of butting heads with coach (who hasn't?). But she was pretty solidly with Coach and Debbie in the last episode, and she might be very happy with having allies this late in the game. If so, Sierra does have the swing vote thus great influence for one week, anyway. Erin and Sierra are pretty antagonistic, but if Erin sees that she might be in danger sticking with Coach and Debbie, she very well might drop them like a bad habit. In that scenario, one would think that Coach or (more likely, IMO) Deb would be targeted. Still in going from being absolutely sure of being the boot choice last week to being secure this week, Sierra's fortunes (and influence) has increased.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-25-09, 10:11 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
>But she was pretty solidly with >Coach and Debbie in the >last episode, and she might >be very happy with having >allies this late in the >game. If so, Sierra does >have the swing vote thus >great influence for one week, >anyway. Erinn voted with the others to oust Tyson, so clearly she isn't solid with Coach and Debbie. I'm going to need to see the weekend previews to see who might be aligned with whom and how the next episode is going to unfold. If I'm Sierra and Erinn, I stick with the Jalapenos because clearly Coach cannot be trusted if he expects Sierra to be loyal to him after the way he and Tyson berated and belittled her.
Stinky Musings <--- blog's been updated!
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 10:56 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-09 AT 11:00 AM (EST)Fun thread, Byoffer, thanks for posting... Regarding Coach and JT...Coach will fold to JT, imo, and in his mind, that will be an honorable move...two do battle, and he is taken out by the stronger warrier...so, I think that while Coach will be set to go head to head with JT, he won't win, but he's always said, that's ok. As for what comes to pass in the mean time...so many things could happen, in fact I will bet that with us seeing Coach trying to rally the original Timbira's to take out the Jalapao's, that that will not happen. But, could Coach appeal to JT and reach some kind of common ground...reach a mutual target that they both can agree on? I think so...most likely it will be one of Sierra or Erinn. Regarding Erinn...huge episode for her last night. I think the Jalapao's will take her with them and get out Sierra next, OR, she will have had her confessional spike and be the next to go...BUT, I did consider Erinn to be the soft-spoken mastermind, last night, not Stephen. It was she that first noted to Taj and Stephen, "You know what we could do tonight? He doesn't have immunity(implying Tyson)..." She used Stephen to do her bidding, and then we had a confessional from her regarding the theme of the show...She said, I know that there is no way that I can win this game by just kinda hanging out and letting other people make my decisions for me"...(as Sierra had let others make the decisions for her...therefore, while Sierra got a break this week, by no effort of her own, but by the golden opportunity that arose, I do not think she will last much longer, I see her story as done). Regarding Erinn, is her story just beginning...one could indeed compare her to Bob, whose story also really started far later in the game...I am not saying at this point, however, that she will indeed be the winner. On the contrary, as Coach and Erinn have been pitted against each other from day one, will Coach align with the other warriers and finally take out the cancer? If he does, that could spell the end of his time as well. Seemingly, with Erinn making her own decisions at this point, and prevailing she is going to feel like she is in control of this game, just as Brendan and Tyson felt in control of the game, right before their blindsides...yep, is a blindside in store for our new power player, Erinn? I think maybe perhaps that it is... Regarding the hii that is still in the game...definately agree, someone will go at the hands of someone else that will play the idol...I do think that Taj will give it to one of Stephen or JT to save them, and thus, later down the line when she may need it, will go. Clearly, Taj is not in control of this game and will not win....but she will probably be F4. If I had to make a guess right now as to the order of the remaining daws, here it is... F7: Erinn....ETA: F7 could in fact be Sierra, and then blindside Erinn at F6...interchangable as well... F6: Sierra F5: Coach F4: Taj F3: Debbie F1 and F2: Interchangable at this point: JT and Stephen...the worthy warriers, perhaps?
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citywitch 250 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-24-09, 03:35 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Erinn seems like the only woman with enough iniative to create a move - Taj always says "just let me know what y'all decide" and Sierra relied on Brendan to tell her what to do. But I wonder if she is able see how tight the Coach/Debbie and Stephen/JT twosomes are.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 11:44 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Yes, but I did acknowledge that you could indeed be right! Regarding Erinn, is her story just beginning...one could indeed compare her to Bob, whose story also really started far later in the game...
I just have been paying attention to how the editors seem to be setting up the blindsides this season...first Brendan, giving him a stellar episode before his boot episode...he noted that he had a plan, he had the hii, and he wasn't afraid to use it...we know where that got him! Then with Tyson, with the merge episode and all of the scheming and manuevering he did to take control of the game, and indeed he escaped the boot(it was Brendan), and seemingly was in control of the game...then whamoooo...it just seems that this episode set Erinn up to be in control of the game...is she in for a blindside in the not too distant future as well? She either is, or she is the winner?
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Max Headroom 10069 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 11:45 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Sierra was blindsided last night by not being voted out.That tells me that the power plays were done behind the scenes, with nobody even bothering to tell Sierra what to do. Based on that, I don't see her being an essential part of any alliance. For whatever reason, she seems to be disliked by everyone. And once there's an alliance with a significant-enough majority, Sierra's gone. Another disconnect I see is in Coach's edit. He's portrayed as a deluded, almost-crazy guy with an enormous ego, yet he seems to be liked by his peers. If he were truly as bad as we're led to believe, he'd be the perfect F2 goat, but I don't see that happening. His "villain edit" may be just that, an edit. agman's helping me survive
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 12:28 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
That's (the fool you by editing thing) is always possible, if not inevitable, especially in Survivor. That ole EPMB!But if I was isolated in the Brazilian Jungle with a guy who conducted non-existent orchestras playing non-existent symphonies, who made up and really seems to believe his wild stories about Brazilian Cannibals, and who alternates between Dungeons and Dragon' s middle earth speak and Warrior talk, I might think he was more crazy than a villain, but I'd be tip-toeing around him. The Sierra thing...I don't know. Just because she seems on the outs alliance-wise, I don't see her as being so sure of a quick boot. Remembering back to Chris D (in Palau, I think?), he was odd man out until he won the season. First, every episode there's another new blowup, next week it seems that it will be between Debbie and Coach, so who knows how that will stir things up. Second, Sierra's is seen by the others as weak and as no challenge threat (in spite of what I think we see as a real digger) and that was the key to managing Tyson's ouster. Even if she isn't a swing vote, she could still float for a while. Even to F2 with a strategic IN win or two. We're at F7 now? At this early point in the guessing, I would think that she and Erin will join the JT/Taj/Stephen faction and vote out either Debbie or Coach, and next week the survivor of the two barring an alliance betrayal. Will Taj and Stephen tussle over the HI? Then, how could a JT (challenge guy) boot not be a real possibility. If so, that’d put Sierra into F4. Then having to win an IC against Erin, Stephen, and Taj isn’t really a bad scenario for her. She may still have some lasting power. She may also be the next booted, but being on the outs with everyone and not being allied with any of those remaining could work in her favor if the others decide to boot real IC or F2 threats.
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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 04:10 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
urp, passes the tissues to MRC
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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 01:22 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-09 AT 01:23 PM (EST)Agree with you about JT/Stephen and Debbie/Coach. I wonder how Taj feels in the alliance with JT and Stephen. Did she at one point feel like it's really her and Stephen? Does she think Stephen would choose her over JT? Erinn: I think we were shown Erinn's conversation with JT for a reason. I think she is more alligned with Jalapao than her own tribe. I think she really hates Timbira. I gave Erinn a quarter gufu point last night for being so mean to Sierra, yet when I go back and think of this, she completely "sold" her loyalty to Timbira by doing this, and that made it so much easier to blindside Tyson. I wonder is Sierra goes next. I think in either alliance, Erinn is fourth. Sierra was clearly blindsided last night, but Coach and Debbie could be thinking she simply voted for Tyson for the way he acted at TC. At this point, Debbie and Coach could trust her more than Erinn. ETA: I would really like for Stephen to check the tree mail. In the alternative, I think Stephen, Taj, and JT might each want to be seen with the one idol they do have. Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 01:31 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-09 AT 01:32 PM (EST)OK, I'm using the teensy bit of spoiler information that's on TDT as part of my speculation, so if you don't want to see that spoiler information, stop reading my post. OK. What we know from this week's episode is that there's an alliance of 4 - JT, Stephen, Taj, and Erinn, an alliance of two - Coach and Debbie, and Sierra. We also know that Survivor could be subtitled Everybody Hates Sierra. And we know that JT and Coach shook on the Warrior Alliance, and that Coach trusted that handshake, but JT broke his word. Coach doesn't like lying. Sierra listens to Coach's dreck and really wants his acceptance - what he says carries a lot of weight with her. What I saw over on TDT: Debbie sticks around long enough for a family visit (usually 6, isn't it?), Coach finishes 5th, JT and Taj are around for a F4 challenge. So, how would that scenario best work out? 7th - Blindside Sierra. She thought she was going last week, and now she'll mistakenly think she's in the majority, since they all voted against Tyson too. Debbie and Coach will be trying to win back their Timbira tribemates, so she'll think she's got power. But Erinn's not going to budge from her current alliance, and she'll love the chance to pay back Sierra for treating her the way she did while Sierra was groveling to Debbie. 6th - Is this where Stephen saves himself with the Idol? At some point, someone is going to point out to Taj and Erinn how tight JT and Stephen are, and that the pairing has to be broken up somehow. This is the last chance to flush it, since he'll use it at F5 if it's not flushed. If they were to jump now, they'd have a 4-2 advantage over JT and Stephen. I don't think Taj would fall for that, though, so worst case scenario, it would be 3-3. The Jalapao 3 decides to go for another blindside and takes out Erinn for even considering a jump. 5th - This is where Coach is slated to go, and it would be an easy 3-2 vote. And there is much rejoicing. 4th - Bye Debbie, in a 3-1 vote. Is it an F3 or an F2? Doesn't really matter, since I think Taj finishes third either way. Doubt she'd even get one vote from that jury. So who wins, Stephen or JT? Either would be worthy - the boy from the sticks and the boy who couldn't make fire. Will Coach have the last laugh and be the deciding vote? If so, he will deem Stephen the more noble warrior, since JT broke their handshake deal.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 04:03 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-09 AT 04:06 PM (EST)I like this analysis...the only possibility is that Erinn (michel hopes) or Sierra (Belle hopes) sneaks into the top4 and then that would mean Stephen would be blindsided at F6 (Taj and JT we know make it to F4 and Deb is said to be the F4 boot--lasted 37 days...from TDT/Sucks and Coach is said to leave at 5th--from TDT/Sucks) I don't think it happens I agree with your analysis bc I want Stephen to win it for himself, Rob C and Rafe Well the votes would be? right now it seems JT would win but him breaking the warrior alliance may lead to TY DEB and Coach voting Stephen
Stephen: Ty, Deb, Coach, Taj JT: Brendan, Sierra, Erinn
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-24-09, 04:10 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
JT certainly is vulnerable with 7 people if Erinn should flip-flop, so they need to nail down her loyalty.I don't see that she was loyal to Timbira last episode. What I heard from her prior to the IC was that she was pretending to be on board until Sierra was out of there - and then planned to defect and turn the game around. FloPo said she was the soft-spoken strategist, and indeed she did initiate the Tyson boot idea according to the editing. However, the TEASER said it was a man, HE -- so clearly the teaser credited Stephen, which I find interesting. Stephen was indeed the one who sold JT, and I doubt JT would have broken his word if not for Stephen's strong encouragement that it was necessary to blindside Tyson while possible. We have not been shown that any of these people are thinking in terms of getting a goat to the finals. They may be, but we aren't shown it. All we see right now is people trying to get there, and not get voted out. So I'm not convinced people are trying to get to the end with Coach but I do agree he is not a challenge threat to anyone. Speaking of threats, now that Brendan and Tyson are gone, I think JT has a good shot at going on a run, as we saw Stephen presenting to him last night. JT has been eclipsed in the post-merge by those two powerhouses ... now might be his turn to go Colby. As for Sierra, I think her story is over. She may just alienate herself with her "honest" strategy that they all agree to get rid of her. Nobody trusts her at this point. Byoffer, I propose that the WA Warrior Alliance has entered a new phase, where it might be renamed the Warrior Arrogant Arsehole Alliance Hasbeens, or WAAAH
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Georjanna 1316 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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04-24-09, 05:26 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-09 AT 06:29 PM (EST)FloPo said she was the soft-spoken strategist, and indeed she did initiate the Tyson boot idea according to the editing. However, the TEASER said it was a man, HE -- so clearly the teaser credited Stephen, which I find interesting. Stephen was indeed the one who sold JT, and I doubt JT would have broken his word if not for Stephen's strong encouragement that it was necessary to blindside Tyson while possible. I wonder if that whole scene might have been heavily edited. We hear Erinn say only that a 'he' doesn't have Immunity. But immediately after that Stephen says that he thinks that they should boot Tyson: unnecessarily and awkwardly if Erinn was referring to the same person. And it is Stephen who brings up Tyson's physical superiority and notes that 'it might be the only time to oust him'. So, I think that it's possible that Stephen redirected Erinn's willingness to vote out a Timbira male (Coach) to a target with whom he had no (apparent) personal rapport. As others have noted, it will probably be a lot easier for Stephen to remain in Coach's good graces following Tyson's boot than it will be for J.T. to manage to salvage his relationship with the former head of the Warrior Alliance. And I think that every one of his twosomes are part of Stephen's overall strategy to divide - or align - and conquer by making himself one-half of as many mini-alliances as possible. So, it wouldn't surprise me if Sierra found a (discreetly) sympathetic ear in Coach's little Wizard. And someone has to amuse Debbie now that Tyson's gone. For the peripatetic and pragmatic Stephen, the possibilites would seem to be bountiful. And that (though I hope not) just may be his downfall. I didn't like the image of an exiled Stephen being surveyed by what I think were vultures, frustrated, beached and baked. But I did notice that, when he arrived at the IC, he carefully inserted himself between Coach and J.T. And I can't wait for the contributors to the Editing thread to tell me what all of it means. Edited to correct the Erinn/Taj/Stephen exchange. G
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-03-09, 08:40 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Post-Tyson Boot Discussion" |
Bumping ... the WAAH is still alive and ready to eat itself ... ewI found this in Stephen's bio and couldn't think quite where to post it. Not sure if bio's are considered OK in the editing thread. Stephen's biggest pet peeve is when somebody is “overconfident or cocky.” He plans to use that type of person to his advantage by forming a bond and then subtly prompting them to carry out his decisions. A strategist, Stephen prides himself on being able to pretend to agree with someone's idea while replacing it with his own. I wonder if he considers JT a cocky person. Brendan was cocky, and so was Tyson, but Stephen did not try to keep them around. No wonder, he already has one challenge threat in his pocket as best buddy. Three would be a bit much to handle. Stephen must be peeved at Coach to the nth degree.
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