Welcome back

It appears that perhaps an initial theme (at least) may be “first impressions” in light of how the show commences. Whether this has any bearing for end game, we will only know at end game. First impressions can play a definite factor in how the course of the game runs. How can we forget Jake selecting such physically fit people and his optimism that his tribe would really triumph. We all know what happened to them. Can immediate first impressions have an ultimate bearing on the conclusion - of course they can.

Once again, Jeff's "take" on prior winners:

(Bob) "He's the oldest guy out there. And unfortunately, that works against people all the time, even though there's probably nobody better equipped for this game. He's probably the guy who will be the biggest asset, if they don't get foolish and vote him out."

"To me Parvati is this season's Amber. Last time, Parvati used her flirting, and it got her a long way. But we didn't really see her do a whole lot more than that, and the question was, what if underneath that she's got a strategy? What if she's figured out how to play this game- could she last long enough to become a threat? Parvati's a question mark."

"Todd is a Survivor super fan who's wanted to be on since he was 14. Next to Courtney, he's probably the smallest person here. He's what you look for — a great personality who knows how to play this game." and "This kid couldn't drive when we started. He did know the game. It's because he's been watching since he was a kid. I'll tell ya, in his case, it pays off. He knew going in how to start the game. He had a game plan how an alliance best worked and how you worked people"

"Yul could absolutely win this game; I'd be delighted if he did; a super likeable guy" and "Yul is a player. You underestimate Yul, you'll be going home before he will... He studied the show. As somebody who wants to play this game and have a shot at winning he's studied the show"

"I'm not sure what he's (Aras) bringing. He's bringing a lot of talk. Does he know how to play Survivor? We'll find out. That's all I've got on Aras."

"Danni is someone that I think people are probably going to get behind. She's in great shape. She's tall and she's got a competition background"

"Tom is salt-of-the-earth guy. A father. A firefighter. There's no chance of this guy being a villain. You hope he lasts long enough in the game to be a hero. If he does last for a while, he's the kind of guy who could win it, because people are going to look at him and say, You know what, why not him? Everything about him is good."

"If Chris is everything he reports to be, he'll do just fine in the game, that's the question. Is he putting on a really this strong "I'll tackle anything bring it on, you can't beat me kind of guy? I don't know. I think he's one of the guys that could either emerge as really strong or fade fast" Also, a guy you know will play the game like Mariano; super exciting to us....." (Recall this is coming off from All Stars)

With that....I believe I have the tribe breakdown correctly given to me. Feel free to add whatever information the contestants themselves provided since I did not delve into that other than Jeff advising there are a number of likeable people this season.

Tribe One

Jerry

Jeff says Jerry is a loveable man. There's so much more to Jerry though than a big smile. I mean this guy has been in Afghanistan...he's led troops. And he's explained to me before his philosophy and it's not about: 'who are my leaders'....it's about 'who needs my help'. That kind of leadership is really mature. Whether people recognize it or not, it could serve him really well.

Candace

Jeff says Candace is unfortunately on a season in which there are a lot of likeable strong people. And she may fall victim to not being as strong. I think the heat and the bugs might get to her. What Candace will have to do though is show people that 'I am a warrior and not a princess'.

Tyson

Jeff says Tyson’s one of my favorites this season because he's maniacal and I don't know what he's going to do. The great thing about Tyson though, is he's smart enough and good looking enough that people will think he's normal. Some people will be attracted to him. They'll have no idea he's got that Richard Hatch sort of diabolical mind always working.

Sierra

Jeff says Sierra is one of my favorites. She's 23, she's sassy, she did a lot of homework before she came out here. She will either dig deep and show people: 'don't underestimate me' or she will fade like yesterday's newspaper. And she will be in Ponderosa, which is where all the losers hang out.

Erinn

Jeff says Erinn I'm on the fence on. She's got to make a first impression....that is: 'I'm a worker'. Right away. 'Cause otherwise, I think you look at her and you might judge her as a pretty girl who's gonna fade early. So that would be my advice: 'pick up the heaviest thing you can and start walking'.

Benjamin

Jeff says Benjamin. Hands down one of the most fascinating guys that's been on the show. He is so full of himself. And he's full of himself like Richard Hatch was. He wants to take the best to the end. And he believes he's one of the best...and there are 3 others. And he's gonna get 'em together and we're gonna run this game and we'll duke it out. I wouldn't want my sister to date him...but I love him on Survivor.

Debra

Jeff says Debra's interesting because she's quote unquote an older woman this season. But she doesn't act like one. And her life experience of working with kids all the time as a Principal also helps keep her young. I mean look at how she dresses and how she wears her hair. She has a very young energy. The question is will she get labeled with a first impression of: 'eh...she's the old woman, let's get rid of her'. Or will people think 'she's got a lot of energy, she's got a lot of vitality, maybe we should keep her around'.

Brendan

Jeff says Brendan. He's a very successful businessman. Those skills can work on Survivor. He knows how to lead people. He knows how to take an idea and execute it. So he's going to have to overcome the burden of people figuring out he's successful and still wanting to keep him in the game

Two Richard Hatch references? It appears to me if this breakdown is accurate then Benjamin may have already selected three of his tribe to "rule the roost." It also appears based on Jeff's "blurbs" that Jerry, Tyson, and Brendan may be the three that Benjamin has his eye on. It will be interesting to see how Tyson and Benjamin work - being of the same mindset, they may get along fabulously or there could be some ego issues. With four seemingly strong men, the women may find themselves in a predicament although Jeff noting Sierra is a favorite of his seems to possibly say she can withstand this tribe. Candice, Erinn and Debra may have the harder task of proving themselves initially.

Tribe Two

Spencer

Jeff says: Spencer is 19 years old. Which means if you do the math, we are in our 9th year, he was 10 when Richard Hatch won. That's exciting and scary at the same time. I think the thing that might get in Spencer's way is that he couldover think things. He knows Survivor so well, he's such a superfan, that he could over think it. Had Spencer been a year older he would have been on Fans vs Favorites. He just wasn't old enough.

Sandy

Jeff says Sandy will be unfortunately be off very very early. If her tribe loses the first Immunity Challenge I imagine she will be gone first. There's just no way around it. She's country, she can swear with the best of them, she's very likeable. But she's going to be angry when it happens, but it's gonna happen.

James/JT

Jeff says: Likeable kid. Runs a ranch. He knows what hard work is. I think JT is OK being by himself, which is also good out here 'cause there's a lot of lonely nights. I think JT's gonna get flirted with...and probably do some heavy flirting himself.

Joe

Jeff says Joe is gonna be compared to Colby. That's what I think people are gonna say. Looks like a strong fit dude...he's good looking, he's charming. I think if Joe gets on the right tribe he'll be a leader, he'll be strong at challenges and he'll probably be in the game for awhile.

Carolina

Jeff says She's small, she's cute...and I think people will think 'aw, pretty little girl in the red dress'. I think she's really tough. It's gonna be which alliance she ends up in. If she chooses wisely she could be in deep deep. If not, middle of the pack. Nobody's going to get rid of her early, she's too cute.

Stephen

Jeff says Stephen is going to have a big job to integrate well. There's a feeling on this season of 'young...kind of hip'. And Stephen's a little outside of that. He's a little more of an intellect. And if he can use those skills in the right way, I think he could do really well.

Taj

Jeff says Taj is going to have a little bit of work to do because of appearances. I think that happy smile only goes so far and then people are going to start looking at her. And if she starts hanging her head low and saying: 'this is getting me down', she's an easy one to vote out. The flip side on Taj is she's so likeable. If people find out she's married to a former NFL player, that could work against her. 'Cause people like to look at success as a reason to get rid of you.

Sydney

Jeff says Beautiful. People are gonna judge Sydney. Because typically on Survivor, if you really pay attention, the hot blonde woman fades every single time. Sydney needs to break that cycle. 'Cause otherwise they'll keep her around to look at and she'll be low on the totem pole and alliance and she's be middle of the pack...maybe Jury. And you'll forget whatever her name was...the girl from San Diego who was really cute.

With only by the words Jeff uses, this tribe seems like they are marginally the more "likeable" tribe (per se as our views on who we like does not necessarily correlate to whom is supposed to more likeable) However, in Survivor, likeable doesn't necessarily mean they will ultimately be the most successful. Jeff does not use many words in describing this group in relation to game playing as much as it appears with the other group. There also seems to more emphasis on appearances/first impressions coming from Jeff with the second group and that may have a big impact with this group.

The two groups seem very different in how Jeff describes them. Jeff's descriptions about a good amount of the women seem also a bit lackluster compared to the men and it would not surprise me if we have a male dominated long term game. There seems to be quite a few males that may dominate with either strength or strategy and it will be interesting to see if they also meet up after both groups merge together. With two groups broken down evenly with the men and women, how will the voting lines break down intially? With first impressions being touted, we all know that many times the ones pegged as the old person or the weak person get voted off first. I also find it curious that Jeff goes all the way back to our first Survivor winner to make some comparisons.

Enjoy the season!