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Wallflower66 2446 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 10-31-06, 06:22 PM (EST) "State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" LAST EDITED ON 11-02-06 AT 10:44 AM (EST) Episode 7: "Why aren't you swimming?" I am pleased to present the State of the Spoiling thread, or S.O.T.S., where I will attempt to consolidate the spoilers and determine the bootee for this week's episode of Survivor 13: Cook Islands. If you are a newcomer to these boards (or have never read them), please take the time to read over the Spoiler Guidelines, and the Community Guidelines. Last week we were presented with a recap of the previous six episodes. To read about what happened, check out Sunny Bunny and Ra's funny summary. Also, nazpink started this thread which discusses the recap. If you weren't able to catch the week 6 episode (or it's been so long ago that you don't remember it), Mysticwolf has graced us with a humorous summary. You can also read how the show played out through the eyes of our RTVW community as it aired on IceCat's East Coast Update Thread. Veruca Salt also gave us a recap of episode 6, in which she scrutinized the editing of the show in order to predict what might happen in the future in The Players, The Game, The Editing thread, including animal imagery analysis by emydi, and several more astute observations from michel, architecturegirl, and others. But, what it all boiled down to was that Aitu won reward and got a feast of lamb chops and cider, and got to sit in on Raro's tribal council. There was no immunity challenge, but Aitu was able to "kidnap" someone, thereby giving that person immunity and the privilege of sharing in the feast. Aitu chose to kidnap Nathan. Aitu also had to go to tribal council and vote someone out. In the end, the annoying one, Cao Boi was voted out of Aitu, and the misfit, Christina was voted out of Raro. Forehead brought us the transcript from the Episode 6 Insider, which shows some extra footage and comments from the players that we were not aired on the show, giving us even further insight into the tribal dynamics. Forehead told us the title of episode 7 is "Why aren't you swimming?". Forehead also revealed to us that, according to TV guide, this will be a single-boot episode, with the next double-boot not until Nov. 16, and the merge happening on Nov. 23 (Thanksgiving). FlowerPower brought us the preview vidcaps over from Survivor Fever, and she perceptively points out that there are no preview vidcaps from the Raro tribe, and wonders if this is an indication that Aitu is the tribe going to tribal council. The voiceover from the preview says that: Flica wants "to be on the same page and know what's going on" "Nate causes stress at Aitu" Yul feels uneasy discussing something (strategy?) in front of Nate Sundra thinks Ozzy is "so good-looking" "Ozzy's stock skyrockets" "One exiled Survivor takes a beating" At this point in the game, we are down to 13 players, with 6 members on the Raro tribe (3 men, 3 women), and 7 members on the Aitu tribe (4 men, 3 women). As far as original tribe members left in the game, there are 5 Raro/Caucasian, 4 Puka/Asian, 3 Hiki/African American, and one original Aitu/Hispanic (Ozzy). Let's review what we have seen so far as far as alliances. On Aitu, there is the women's "armpit alliance" of Sundra, Candice, and Becky. Becky and Yul have made an alliance pact. We have also seen an alliance of 5 formed between Becky, Yul, Candice, Jonathan, and Sundra. Flica was tight with Cao Boi, who is now gone. Ozzy, like Flica, is also a "free agent", although some folks here have speculated that he and Yul may be aligned based on some of Ozzy's comments on the Insider about Yul as being his "confidant". Ozzy may also be aligned with Jonathan, based on his Cao Boi voting comment on the Insider "It's the only way I can get to Jonathan" (perhaps trying to prove loyalty to Jonathan). Candice and Jonathan also have ties from them both being on the original Raro tribe. On Raro, alliances have been primarily seen as being divided along gender lines. The men have been bonding while out fishing, while the women have connected back at camp. Parvati, through her flirtaciousness, also appears to be close to Adam and Nate. Now that Christina was voted out by the tribe, Raro's women no longer outnumber the men. Not all of the original four tribal alliances have held together at this point. We have already seen some tribe members casting votes for others from their original tribe, such as Brad's vote to oust Jenny, Christina's vote for J.P., Nathan and Rebecca's votes for Stephannie, Flica's vote for Jonathan, and Yul's vote for Cao Boi. So it goes to show how quickly alliances can change in this game. There is a lot of speculating going on for this episode, and not a lot to go on as far as spoilers go. So let's see what we have for both: Emydi gives us the CBS misdirection clues for this week: At an extremely physical Reward Challenge, a Survivor collapses out of exhaustion, leaving the burden of completing the challenge to their other tribemates. Rebecca is most likely the exhausted one, leaving Adam to pick up the slack. One Survivor confronts another about their choice to sit out of the physical portion of the Reward Challenge, blaming the loss on them. How will this decision affect their position in the game? We know from the vidcaps that the physical part of the reward challenge is the swimming out to the platforms and breaking the tiles, which is performed by Rebecca/Adam/Parvati and Ozzy/Candice/Yul. The other participants who are performing the non-physical part of the reward challenge are Brad, Jenny, Jonathan, and Becky. FloPo believes it's Adam who is the "confronter" (or possibly Jenny, since these two have been shown to be outspoken in the past), and is ticked off at Brad, a good swimmer, for opting out of swimming. With little shelter available, a raging storm makes one Survivor's trip to Exile Island a nightmare. Could it be that Nate gets sent to Exile after having been given immunity and a feast during the previous tribal council? Or is it Brad, who everyone is mad at after the reward challenge? Adam is also a possibility. Who knows? Not much to go on thus far. Whoever it is, it'll be a rough stay. One Survivor brings a seabird back to camp after having caught it with their bare hands. Can they convince their fellow tribe members that their strength around camp is an asset or will they quickly make themselves a target? We know from the promos that this is in reference to Ozzy, as we see him in this pic from the TV promo (from Survivor Fever) with a bird in his hands. Emydi also brought us over the web promo vidcaps, which show that there will be two challenges this week, both involving water, but it's hard to tell which challenge is which. We know that Nate will not return to Raro until after the reward challenge, so he will not be competing with his tribe for reward. But from the vidcaps, we also know that Nate will not participate with Aitu in the reward challenge, either, and we have visual confirmation of this provided by Volcanic Glass in this pic: And here is the voiceover transcript from the web promo: ] It all seems to be about Ozzy being a "target" due to his skills in competitions and providing food for the tribe. But, this is most likely misdirection. In Veruca Salt's thread, emydi's animal imagery analysis notes that Ozzy is represented by a soaring lone white bird, which she sees as a good sign pointing toward his longevity in the game (but it's also quite ironic, since we do see him catching a white bird for food, too!) FlowerPower has done an excellent analysis of the challenges for us in the web promo thread. She thinks that the reward challenge involves 3 members from each tribe swimming out to a tall platform and smashing plates with a stick, and then swimming back. Then two other members of each tribe must perform a second part of the challenge (maybe releasing tied-up barrels by chopping a rope with a hatchet and rolling them somewhere). She also says that Nate, Sundra, and Flica are the ones who sit out this challenge. We see Ozzy and Rebecca running out with their sticks Ozzy smashing a plate (with Rebecca looking to be not on the platform yet) And returning to the beach, with Ozzy looking to be well in the lead, as Rebecca just then reaches her platform We also see Candice and Yul smashing plates I am thinking that Aitu probably wins the reward challenge thanks to Ozzy's swimming skills and because of these pics: Flica and Candice eating and smooching, and looking quite pleased Ozzy and Yul look pretty happy here, too As for the Immunity Challenge, from the web promo, it appears that it involves these tasks (not necessarily in order): Crossing some platforms Going down a zipline Retrieving some bags (maybe with puzzle pieces?) from the water and and climbing a rope ladder (notice that Jonathan is cheering for Yul in the background his arms up in the air- maybe this means that Yul is winning?) Then they may have to put together a puzzle to win the challenge. And then there's this picture of Nate: Some board peeps think Nate looks frustrated here, fueling speculation that it is Raro who loses the immunity challenge. However, CattyChat thinks that Nate just looks frustrated because Raro is losing the reward challenge. And knuckles487 thinks that Nate does not look frustrated at all, but rather he is just wiping some water off his face. So which tribe wins immunity? It's a tough call. Let's see what else we have to go on... Volcanic Glass brought us over some footage pics from future episodes from Survivor Phoenix here. It's difficult to tell which of these are from episode 7, and which are from later episodes. We know from this promo that there will be some sort of twist(s) coming up: From outbackcat at Survivor Sucks, we found out that Jeff gave a radio interview in which he states that "...we gave the tribes a chance to switch tribes and they were not willing to switch..". Could that be what happens in this episode? ETA: Volcanic Glass has brought over new info from TDT that Candice and Jonathan do switch tribes in a future episode, leaving Aitu with only four tribe members! But the tribal switch twist does not happen in episode 7, because when Jeff presents the supposed tribal switch twist, he is wearing this (Maybe Episode 8?): And, when Jeff presents the bottle twist, he is wearing this (Maybe Episode 9?): And, we see a reaction shot of Rebecca, Nate, and Jenny to something (which may be a reaction to either of the twists, or possibly later on for a reward): So will there be a twist for episode 7? Zhirtok claims at Sucks that the "message in a bottle" twist does in fact happen in this episode, and that what is in the bottle is a "very bad thing" that "does not bring good tidings" to the immunity challenge losers. But I doubt that this twist happens in episode 7, because as OFG mentions at Sucks, there has been no mention of any twists in any of the previews for this episode, and because of the differences in Jeff's clothes between episode 7 vidcaps and future episode vidcaps. If there isn't some sort of tribal shake-up twist, then the reaction shot with Nate, Rebecca, and Jenny makes a case that none of them are leaving in this episode. So then, who will our bootee be for episode 7? I think it boils down to two people, depending on which tribe wins immunity. If Raro goes to tribal council, then Brad is most likely to get booted, as our other candidates, Rebecca and Jenny, have been shown in vidcaps which are most likely from future episodes. And the tribe could be a bit perturbed at Brad for not participating in the swimming portion of the reward challenge. If Aitu goes, then I think Flica will be most probable to get booted, due to her lack of alliances and strategy. And the other candidate or "target", Ozzy, may be secretly alligned with Jonathan and Yul. That, and his incredible strength in challenges and in providing for the tribe will help to keep him in the game. And the fact that the women see him as eye candy can't hurt! So, which one will it be? Flica? Or Brad? TDT thinks it is Raro who wins the immunity challenge, resulting in Flica's boot, and Brownroach and emydi agree with that assessment. Conversely, Survivor Fever thinks Rebecca and Jenny are the most vulnerable. But the only spoiler who has been 100% accurate so far in predicting the bootees thus far has been Darnell at Survivor Sucks. So, we'll have to wait until he makes his pick there on Wednesday and see what he thinks. ETA: This just in: Darnell says it's Flica, too! So, I will have to go with TDT and Darnell and say that this is how things go: Reward Winners: Aitu Immunity Winners: Raro Exile: Nate? Brad? Adam? Bootee: Flica's flame flickers out Bye-Bye, Flica! So there you have it. I hope you enjoyed reading my first S.O.T.S.! Be sure to check out Scarlett O'Hara's Across the Board Picks thread on Thursday to see how other boards think this episode will play out. And, look for our own KObrien_Fan's predictions for episode 7 at Survivor Fever here Also Corvis' Survivor Thoughts from Iowa gives us his bootee predictions based on analysis of players' confessionals. Don't forget to vote for who you think this episode's bootee will be in Dabo's vote thread. And, finally, for further speculations on how things will play out in the future, check out these threads: Veruca Salt's new, post-recap The Players, The Game, The Editing thread is a discussion and analysis of how the players are being edited on the show. Michel's Parallels thread examines the gameplay of the remaining players compared to winners of past seasons. FlowerPower's Pre-merge dynamics thread discusses predictions/ theories as to how the game will progress prior to the merge.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... Flowerpower 10-31-06 1  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... strid333 10-31-06 2  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... michel 10-31-06 3  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... forehead 10-31-06 4  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... MJewel 10-31-06 5  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... KObrien_fan 10-31-06 6  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... Scarlett O Hara 10-31-06 7  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... Outfrontgirl 10-31-06 8  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... seahorse 11-01-06 9    RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... Outfrontgirl 11-01-06 10        RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... Wallflower66 11-01-06 11  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... emydi 11-01-06 12  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... xwraith27 11-01-06 13    RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... emydi 11-01-06 14  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... Brownroach 11-01-06 15  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... whoami 11-01-06 16  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... CattyChat 11-01-06 17  RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... RabidDingo 11-02-06 18    RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)... emydi 11-02-06 19

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-06, 07:01 PM (EST) 1. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" WOOOOOOHOOOOOO! Wow, Wallflower, you have hit a grand slam with your very first SOTS! I hope you will continue to post in this thread in the seasons to come, because you are a wonderful addition to our Boards! You make it look easy and you have nailed the episode. I really appreciate you stepping up to the plate and doing such an awesome job! Thanks so much, I am proud to call you my FLOWER sister!   Top

strid333 2928 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-31-06, 07:11 PM (EST) 2. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Excellent summary! Three is the perfect number.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-06, 07:15 PM (EST) 3. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" I certainly did enjoy that SOTS. Great job Wallflower, you've given us a complete overview of that episode. We can all watch it unfold!   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-31-06, 07:29 PM (EST) 4. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Wow! Very thorough and thoughtful. (And there was a lot to track during two weeks.) Hope you'll do a SOTS every season! Thanks, forehead   Top

MJewel 1951 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 10-31-06, 07:49 PM (EST) 5. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Excellent SOTS Wallflower! You really pulled everything together and made sense of everything. I hope you continue to do some more SOTS in the future . (Thanks to Tribe for the great siggie!)   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-06, 08:11 PM (EST) 6. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Thanks for this wonderful SOTS Cyn, you may be a SOTS virgin but you handled it like a pro, excellante!!!!!   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 10-31-06, 10:05 PM (EST) 7. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" *W*O*W!!! What a fabulous job you have done with the SOTS this week Wallflower!! I got everything I needed to know in a concise and easy-to-read excerpt! Fabulous!! Thanks and I hope you'll continue to do these!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-31-06, 11:02 PM (EST) 8. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Fantastic SOTS, wallflower! I feel thoroughly informed on all the angles now, and I thoroughly enjoyed the presentation!   Top

seahorse 14337 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-01-06, 00:54 AM (EST) 9. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Great job, you covered everything. Slice & Dice Sigpic Chop Shop 2005   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-01-06, 06:07 AM (EST) 10. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" but VG found an update from TDT's future episodes ... big news Jonathan and Candice will jump ship to Raro in Ep 8 when Jiffy offers the 10 secs to change your fate if only he would change his style of shirt.   Top

Wallflower66 2446 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 11-01-06, 08:06 AM (EST) 11. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Thanks for the info, OFG! I edited it in.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-01-06, 10:18 AM (EST) 12. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Thanks Wallflower AMAZING SOTS!! This can't be your first time!! GREAT TREMENDOUS SOTS!! Can I pick em or whut!!??!! Just remember Babs I get 10% of everything you make!!   Top

xwraith27 1136 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 11-01-06, 10:51 AM (EST) 13. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Wow! Tremendous SOTS, Wallflower! My knees are shaking just thinking that I'm supposed to do next week's, especially after such amazing SOTS(es) from everyone this season.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-01-06, 10:54 AM (EST) 14. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" pfft you'll do fine...and I get 10% of your take too!!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-01-06, 11:00 AM (EST) 15. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Fantastic SOTS, Wallflower. You are an old pro, on your first try!! I'm totally on board that either Flicka or Brad leaves -- still leaning toward an Aitu IC loss and Flicka boot right now. Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl   Top

whoami 2936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 11-01-06, 07:31 PM (EST) 16. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Grate SOTS walflower, thanks. You put it all together very well. I have not had a lot of time to read all the threads this week.   Top

CattyChat 3379 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 11-01-06, 08:17 PM (EST) 17. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Dayum, girl! That is one fantastic SOTS. And I thought Tom Bosley & Michael Learned were great in "On Golden Pond" last night (went to the theatre), but THIS is impressive! I'm with xwraith and this puss in shakin' in her boots until her turn at the SOTS in a couple weeks. The bar just gets set higher & higher. Great job, Wallflower! Kind Creation of ARNutz   Top

RabidDingo 6 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-02-06, 01:35 PM (EST) 18. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" Now I'm confused here. We've mostly agreed that Jessica will be given the boot on tonight's episode. However, MESS from the SS forum has come up with an image from the video clips for later episodes that shows Jessica's tattoo in the image. Here it is. Focus on the area that the arrows are pointing at. If you examine the pic closely, then you'll see that the person there is indeed Jessica (her tattoo is the one part of her that is visible). If this is from a later episode (It's either 9th or 10th episode), then there can be two ways to answer this: 1. Jessica was brought back like Lillian from S7. 2. Aitu wins both RC and IC on tonight's episode and Brad is the one sent home at TC. I would be mad if Probst ever pulled a stunt like the one he pulled back on S7 so I think that the 2nd answer clearly fits. From this, I can conclude that Jessica will be safe before the merge (possibly first one voted out post-merge which means that she'll be the 1st jury member) since the double-boot will most likely come from the losing tribe. Now it makes sense. The Caucasian alliance will be formed at Raro once Jonathan and Candice jumps ship and joins Raro and none of the non-Caucasian members of Raro will make the merge, solidifying Jonathan's role as the show's villain. Probst stated that we'll really remember Jonathan on this show so that was a clue to me. After reading Cao Boi interviews, it seems that Cao Boi has more anger towards Jonathan now than he did when he was on the show. It could be that Jonathan does something heinous to Jessica, like screw her over at the 1st TC after the merge. That means Jessica will be around for a few more episodes and that TDT is wrong on this occasion. Brad goes home tonight.   Top

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-02-06, 01:57 PM (EST) 19. "RE: State of the Spoiling (S.O.T.S)- Episode 7" LAST EDITED ON 11-02-06 AT 01:58 PM (EST) This is from Phoenix so is this This is your cropped picture It appears that Phoenix is labeling this person as Sundra not Jessica; the picture is not conclusive to me Jessica goes home tonight   Top

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