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"Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-06, 06:43 PM (EST)
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"Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
LAST EDITED ON 03-22-06 AT 09:15 PM (EST)

Hey, I just realized we have no thread for general Ep7 spoilage. So, while we wait for web teasers to go up, here's what we have so far:

SeeBS Press Release (courtesy of SFever!)

THE TRIBES MERGE, ON "SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND ," THURSDAY, MARCH 30

"An Emerging Plan" -- The tribes merge and the former La Mina tribe of four tries to convince some of the former Casaya tribemates to join their alliance ...

It's bittersweet for Sally to be stranded alone on Exile Island as she knows she'd have been the next to go otherwise. When the two tribes finally become one, Sally returns to seemingly open arms from all remaining castaways.

After proper introductions are made, the remaining survivors celebrate as one new tribe, but hidden agendas quickly overtake the camp when the former La Mina tribe, currently in the minority, tries to persuade some of the former Casaya castaways to join their alliance.

Building a bigger shelter becomes a dangerous project and leaves Bruce with a chipped tooth and a cut lip.

And, the seventh member is voted out of the tribe.

--------------------------

Ep 7 Web Promo: (voiceover transcript thanx to TDT)

POWER: The exercise of clout, muscle, control.
Probst (in background): "Whoa! Easy guys!"
Aras: "Stay together, don't give them a thing!"

MERGER: the joining together.
Bruce (confessional): "The whole ballgame's gonna change, big time."

WILDCARD: Not knowing what will happen next.
Shane: "He's out."
Sally (confessional): "What is going on?"
Terry (confessional): "That immunity idol could be ace in the hole."
Nick: "Woo-hoo!"

-------------------------

Post Recrap Promo:

Voiceover: "On Thursday, March 30th, Survivor returns with an all-new episode. Where 16 castaways once stood, only ten remain."
What will happen as the rewards get bigger, and the risks get greater?

Probst (at challenge): "Whoa! Easy, guys!"

Shane (to Aras): "I'm turning the whole game."

Off-camera production voice: "We have a medical emergency."
Voiceover: "And one castaway could be forced from the game. A new episode of Survivor: Exile Island returns to CBS, Thursday, March 30th.


---------------------------------
Singapore promo

Probst (voiceover): "Next time on... Survivor. New blood... "
Courtney: "There they are."
Probst (voiceover): "Changes everything."
Shane: "Hey! Come here, quickly!"


La Mina minus Sally (arriving at Casaya):
Austin (confessional): "I'm ready to get in there, see if I can come out victorious!"
Terry (to Bruce): "If you come over, we will go to the final five."

Probst (voiceover): "Terry wheels and deals."
Terry (confessional): "I'm just looking for a few people to swing the total game our way."
Probst (voiceover): "And Bruce gets whacked."

Bruce/Nick: "Whoa!"
Nick (confessional): "I just hit Bruce in the face with a machete, I'm out of here."

-----------------------------

ETA the Singapore promo voiceover as posted by TDT and the CBS Press Release from Fever.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Outfrontgirl 03-22-06 1
   RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Brownroach 03-23-06 2
       RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... architecturegirl 03-23-06 3
           RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... emydi 03-23-06 4
               RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Brownroach 03-23-06 5
                   RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... emydi 03-23-06 6
                       RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Brownroach 03-23-06 7
                           RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... mommamia 03-23-06 8
                       RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... architecturegirl 03-23-06 9
                           RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... architecturegirl 03-23-06 10
                               RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Brownroach 03-24-06 11
                                   RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... architecturegirl 03-24-06 12
                                       RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Brownroach 03-24-06 13
                                           RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Outfrontgirl 03-24-06 14
                                               RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... architecturegirl 03-25-06 15
                                                   RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... emydi 03-25-06 16
                                                       RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Outfrontgirl 03-26-06 17
                                                           RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... mommamia 03-27-06 18
                                                           RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... architecturegirl 03-27-06 19
                                                               RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Brownroach 03-27-06 20
                                                               RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS M... Chez 03-27-06 21
                                                                   Correct AyaK 03-27-06 22
                                                                       RE: Correct architecturegirl 03-28-06 29
                                                                           RE: Correct Chez 03-28-06 31
 Is anyone else thinking... Brownroach 03-27-06 23
   Not sure I do. michel 03-27-06 24
       RE: Not sure I do. Brownroach 03-27-06 25
           RE: Not sure I do. Flowerpower 03-28-06 26
               RE: Not sure I do. Brownroach 03-28-06 27
                   RE: Not sure I do. architecturegirl 03-28-06 28
                       RE: Not sure I do. Brownroach 03-28-06 30
                   RE: Not sure I do. Flowerpower 03-28-06 32
                       RE: Not sure I do. Brownroach 03-28-06 33
 CBS eye mail Flowerpower 03-30-06 34
   RE: CBS eye mail Brownroach 03-30-06 35
   Who is the exilee? Flowerpower 03-30-06 36
       RE: Who is the exilee? Sonicbluebird 03-30-06 38
           RE: Who is the exilee? Brownroach 03-30-06 39
   RE: CBS eye mail Sonicbluebird 03-30-06 37
   RE: CBS eye mail montanagirl 03-30-06 40
 Screener summary Brownroach 03-30-06 41
   RE: Screener summary Flowerpower 03-30-06 42

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-22-06, 09:17 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
The only repeat in both North American promos is the Whoa! Easy, guys! challenge line. Maybe that means this challenge belongs to Ep 7? Could it be an RC, just prior to the formal merge or just after it--in order to select an exile?

The web promo is structured in 3 parts, POWER, MERGER, WILDCARD.
Maybe that translates into 1) physical RC challenge, 2) merge, and 3) immunity with HII wildcard? The only part that's a guess there is whether for the first time we'll see a merge ep with an RC.

Questions:
If an RC, could it still be a team challenge, producing an exile? Or an individual challenge, still producing an exile?

It appears that La Mina minus their exile come to Casaya beach to merge instead of to challenge beach. While they could have been told about the merge in another location, if they had already done an RC, Sally ought to be with them. So when does Sally come back? Would they all say Hi without her and then report back to challenge beach for an RC, where she is returned?

We see no hint of the medical emergency in the Ep 7 promo, so I think that's got to be Ep 8 or 9 being used to keep the audience interested ... as of course viewers are thought to have the attention span of a gnat and will forget about the show after it doesn't air for a week--unless it looks like someone gets Skupined when it returns. So the Bruce-Nick machete incident doesn't require drastic measures.

"Turning the whole game" is likely enough to be an Ep 7 comment, but I think we can assume there will be a lot of scheming, not all of it may manifest in much of anything. This and Bruce's line make for good sound bytes to engage viewers and let them know that Casaya will NOT pagong La Mina because, hey, it's a whole new game. Of course it is.

SeeBS aside--Terry, Bruce, and Shane are all quoted as trying to change the game. All are original LaMina. The first two need allies and Shane kind of hates. Plus Probst hinted that the Ep One bonds between the original tribes would come back into play at the merge and specifically mentioned the older men.

Terry is making a Final5 deal. We can assume that means Terry/Austin/Nick and Bruce (who gets the offer). Who is the 5th? Sally (as part of LM even though female, or Shane who wants to turn the game?) Or is Terry (who needs SIX votes on his side this time)--stringing Sally along and making a F5 deal on the side with Bruce and Shane?

Hard to say, but as to Shane--I thought he had a bond with Aras and he seemed awfully down on Bobby as someone who would jump ship. But then, Shane is neither consistent nor logical. As for poor Sally--Terry has yet to offer an alliance deal to a woman, although no doubt he would welcome her continued support.

>>When the two tribes finally become one, Sally returns to seemingly open arms from all remaining castaways.

Sounds to me like Sally may be courted by all sides and feel like she will be last wheel to any alliance she goes for.

TDT:
And since there's still debate about whether Terry could miss the first one, and win the F3 IC, we'll state that we've also heard specifically that he wins immunity in this episode.

So, Terry does not have to use the idol in Ep 7, if TDT's source is correct. That means that Casaya doesn't have to strategize around the idol. They can just target Nick, for example. But why wouldn't Terry get Bruce to flip and at least pull off a tie vote if not better? Does Sally flip while Shane sticks with Casaya? Does Bruce decide to stay with Casaya because he's pissed at Nick for injuring him? Bruce is such a wild card, and that's something in a tribe that also contains Shane.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 11:06 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Terry is making a Final5 deal. We can assume that means Terry/Austin/Nick and Bruce (who gets the offer). Who is the 5th?

My impulse is to think that Terry assumes Sally is still part of the LaMina alliance when he offers Bruce the F5 slot. He didn't seem the least bit concerned when Dan suggested that she would flip later, so I can't see that occurring to him now. If anything, Austin would have to point it out to him.

As you say, Terry needs six to turn the game around. I think his plan is to go after Bruce and someone else (perhaps Shane) while not worrying that Sally might have some plans of her own.


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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 01:09 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Actually, if he and the other La Minas can somehow make sure Casaya votes for him - he only needs five to turn the game around. Granted, if he doesnt have to he'd want six so he can keep his immunity, but in this scenario they only need five, and Bruce would be five.
Honestly, I see no reason why Bruce wouldnt go with them - even if it results in a tie at tribal council. He wouldnt really be being disloyal, they've all made it clear he's the next to go of them, and he'd be remaining loyal to his original tribe.
I think Bruce will think he's the deciding factor (like Christy did in season six), but really it will be Sally.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 01:20 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
But that assumes Terry is willing to give up his Hidden Immunity Idol so quickly come merge time. I wouldn't if I were him and he will go all out for regular II at F10 and as TDT states, he has a source that says Terry wins F10 Sloth hanging IIC.

We don't know when Terry is talking to Bruce before II or after...



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03-23-06, 01:25 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-06 AT 01:35 PM (EST)

See-BS says:

"After proper introductions are made, the remaining survivors celebrate as one new tribe, but hidden agendas quickly overtake the camp when the former La Mina tribe, currently in the minority, tries to persuade some of the former Casaya castaways to join their alliance."

Terry will start working on Bruce and whoever else right away, he won't just depend on winning immunity later.

ETA to respond to architecturegirl -- I also think that Bruce is going to screw this up somehow; why else are they revealing that Terry is trying to get him on La Mina's side? Maybe he decides to do his own thing again and toss another vote at Courtney. Then a LaMina boot wouldn't require Sally flipping; it would end up a 5-4-1 vote.

More likely though, imo, is that Bruce doesn't end up switching sides. If he did he'd probably get booted next.


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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 01:32 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Ok, but he also won't sacrifice his HII so soon after merge and will fight (successfully per spoilers) for regular II at F10.

If he were to take the hit(as AGirl specs he could)(sort of like Colby did in S2) and give up his HI at F10 in order to get a majority with Bruce along for ride...he would be taking a HUGE chance that he his alliance will stick at F9 and on down the line.

I think Terry will want to hold onto the HII as long as possible, I know I would if I had such a huge target on my back like Terry does.

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03-23-06, 01:39 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Oh I do agree emy that Terry won't entertain any plan that depends on him using the HII right away. He'll be looking to regular immunity for protection.


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mommamia 114 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 02:12 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
I can imagine the HII never coming into play at all especially if Terry does go on the immunity run and never shares the HII. I'm wondering if along with Bruce, Terry goes after Cirie. She's not at all happy with a tribe who right off the bat told her outright she was going, even though she's still around. I don't know for sure that Terry would see her possibly as a challenge liability but she might be receptive to switching sides.
I can see Sally jumping ship from a tribe that hasn't overtly given her their loyalty. She's still there but she knows she would have been the next to go. She might feel that her odds are slightly better with Casaya's bunch.
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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 02:31 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
I dont really think that Terry would want to use the idol - i was just throwing it out there as a way that they could come out on top without needing six people.
obviously he wants to be able to get by with not using it for as long as possible. Although, if Sally and Austin are smart they might see it as a way to get La Mina on top, and convince Terry "for the good of the team".
All of this is assuming we have idiots on Casaya (which they may act like idiots, but have yet to prove they will make a dumb move). Casaya has too see that they cant vote for Terry until the possibility of him pulling out the HII wouldnt do serious damage to their numbers. So, I dont see them voting for Terry (even if they have the chance) for a little while in reality.
BR - now that you suggested the "throw away" Bruce vote, I'm thinking that sounds like exactly how he would act.
No matter what, its not looking good for La Mina. I think an individual or two might have a chance to get fairly far, work their way into a new alliance, but as a whole they wont make it.
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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-06, 02:40 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Continuing my last thought -

Spoilers aside:

Terry has Bruce and Shane as former allies - neither reliable. Shane's a loose cannon and Bruce just isnt a strategic player. He has the idol and his physical ability which may get him far.

Nick and Austin have Aras as a former ally, but Aras simply doesnt need them, he's in a good place with his tribe, I dont see him fighting for them. Austin has the drive and gameplay that Nick doesn't, so he can get farther. Plus, I think he himself more than La Mina has Sally's loyalty, if she gets herself in a good place she could help him out.

Sally has Danielle and Courtney, who of all the "old ties" may be the easiest to return to. They are unhappy in their current situation, and would likely welcome her into the group as a fallback option or security for them. If down the line they want to turn on Shane or even Aras, she would give them more secure numbers to do that.

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03-24-06, 12:40 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
I wonder how much Dan knows about what happened later in the game. Something he's mentioned in a couple of interviews struck me. Here's an excerpt from his Reality News Online interview:

RNO: Twice now we’ve seen Terry ditch allies when it became inconvenient for him – first Ruth-Marie and then you. What are your thoughts on that?

Dan: I thought it was very poor strategy to vote against your allies. Furthermore, Ruth-Marie and Cirie were good friends. Bruce and I were also friends. With Ruth-Marie and me in the merge, we very likely would have had Cirie and Bruce on our side.

He could just have been speculating, but I'm wondering if Dan knows that Terry wasn't able to swing Bruce and Cirie over later on.


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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-06, 01:10 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Its possible that he might know what happened right around the merge if Nick leaves. If that happens, even without Nick saying anything Dan could easily assume that Terry wansnt able to sway Cerie and Bruce. If he had, it would have been a Casaya going to Loser Lodge. He wouldnt have any knowledge beyond that point though.
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03-24-06, 02:09 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Good point, AG, he'll have contact with the next boot at Loser Lodge. I'm sure either Nick or Austin would give him some lowdown on how things went. That could be coloring his comments after the fact.


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03-24-06, 07:15 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
I think they all talk to each other afterwards even though they aren't supposed to, and they know what happens at least up to who makes F2. Probably some of them are good about not discussing their votes.

Both Dan and RuthMarie were doing I told you so's to Terry. I absolutely think they lost Cirie by booting RuthMarie and I've noticed how Dan says that HE was close to Bruce, not that he and Terry were close to Bruce.

If they were able to pull Bruce in right away at the merge, they could have changed the game, but from what we know of who makes it to F5, that didn't happen. Maybe because Bruce can't decide to actually play the game, maybe because Dan wasn't there, maybe because without Cirie they lack the 6th vote to avoid a tie?

With RM, Terry gambled that by keeping strength rather than a loyal ally he could get to the merge at equal numbers. With the Dan boot, I think he was wanting to preserve his two shields as merge boots, and probably thinking about avoiding a tie. There was no way Nick and Austin would split apart.

With a deadlock tie, the purple rock draw would have been between Terry and Nick (because Dan wanted to vote against Austin, not Nick). If Terry drew it, he would have to go into the merge without the HII.

Interesting to note that if Terry had gone for a tie, Austin (or Nick) would have been screwed.

(As far as I know the purple rock rule is still in effect up until the F4, when the tiebreaker goes to a challenge, although Dan seemed to think they would go straight to challenge, so who knows, maybe the tiebreaker rules have changed again.)

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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-06, 10:23 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
They used the fire challenge to determine between bobby jon and steph prior to the final four in palau. Granted they were down to two in their tribe, but I think that we could expect survivor to do any number of things in the case of a tie. I think the purple rock sufficiently scared people out of ever wanting to go into a tie, but I'm not sure they'd actually use it again, it was never actually said that it was a permanent way of determining a tie.
Also, I dont think that the first six "outcasts" have any contact with any of the jury members do they? They're usually sent on a trip of some sort once the sixth person is voted off I believe, so I think Dan's knowledge would be limited to that point & wouldn't know anything about the jury.
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03-25-06, 01:57 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
I think the purple rock has been retired!! we can only hope!

And AG I think OFG was saying that they are talking right now via phone, email, during the airing of the eps.


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03-26-06, 06:52 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Yes, as emydi said, I'm saying they got back to the USA in December and that's time in which they can all communicate, and in previous seasons I know we've heard (unofficially) that they do communicate, contract or no.

Re the purple rock, it's my understanding that tiebreaker rules are written into their contracts in explicit legalese ... and the rock was still in place as of Vanuatu, as Twila talked about avoiding it IIRC.

The purple rock doesn't apply when there are too few contestants. In that case there's a challenge. I believe that after Paschal got PR'd, the rule was revised so that the two targets of the tie vote do not have to draw a rock, which has the devastating effect of making the safe people vulnerable.

At F4, there's a challenge instead of rock draw, because if the two people being targeted are safe, and the immunity winner is safe, only one person could draw a rock. Pre-merge, if there were four people, no one would have won individual immunity, so there would be two people to draw. That's what I was talking about. Terry would have been one of the two to draw. If he drew the rock, presumably he could play the HII.

It's possible they changed the rules again. The reason I think they would not change it is that a fire-starting challenge is exciting ONCE (as with Ulong, or at F4), but if it's an option for any tiebreaker, then once again you get what EPM didn't want, a way to strategize by forcing ties. Meaning, if you are really good at starting fire you would not fear to go to a tiebreaker.

The point of the rock is to introduce a gamble and eliminate strategizing how to win the tiebreaker. As EPM said in an interview prior to S4, he doesn't like deadlock ties and he'd prefer people negotiate and flip and do what's necessary to avoid the tie. (At F4, however, a tie is always possible and can be good TV.)

Hope that makes sense ...
This is one of those episodes where a tie could easily happen, like if La Mina swings Bruce but not Shane or Cirie, so I think the possibility will factor in if Bruce considers crossing over--whether or not they show him talking about it. The concern over a tie, to my mind, would be the #1 reason for Bruce to hold back and put a death sentence on La Mina as a tribe.

Unless he holds the whole "you hit me in the lip with a machete Nick" thing against them!

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03-27-06, 09:04 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
The Early Show lists "the latest Survivor castoffs" for Friday morning. Does it usually say castoff"s" when there's only one?
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03-27-06, 09:35 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
Gotcha, makes more sense now what you were trying to say.
I hope that the purple rock never appears again personally. It bothers me because survivor is supposed to be about controlling or playing the game in a way that controls your own destiny. The person who does that best wins. So even if people didnt like you they cant argue that you didnt outplay or outwit them if you're in the final two - because you're there and they arent.
But with the rock, it brings in a slight bit of game play, but a whole lot of pure chance, and I just dont think thats in line with the game. Can Vecepia truly say she outplayed Paschal though? She just got lucky that he drew the rock and not her. Ending a tie with some sort of challenge, or even past votes, that's fair because destiny still lies within the players hands, not fate.
I guess I'm off track, I just really didnt like that stupid rock, and hope it isnt still a factor in the game.
That said, are we sure that its in their contract that it will be used in specific instances - or just that CBS reveserves the right to... yadda, yadda, yadda - so the players know there's always that possibility? It just seems to me that Survivor wouldnt tip its hand to the players as to what it would do in the case of a tie - they'd want to retain the element of surprise I would think. And well, the threat of the rock has been enough to keep a lot of survivors from risking a tie vote, perhaps they like it that way.
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03-27-06, 11:54 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
I went back to look at the East Coast Thread for the Palau episode where James was voted out. There were only four people on Ulong at that point and Stephenie caused a tie by voting with James for Ibrehim, while BJ and Ibrehim voted for James. BJ and Steph revoted and she changed her vote to James. Jeff didn't tell them in advance what would happen if there was still a tie on the second round.

So that didn't solve anything.


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03-27-06, 12:22 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Ep 7: An Emerging Plan: SeeBS Misdirection"
"Can Vecepia truly say she outplayed Paschal though? She just got lucky that he drew the rock and not her. Ending a tie with some sort of challenge, or even past votes, that's fair because destiny still lies within the players hands, not fate. "


I haven't rewatched the Marquesas tapes, but I thought that Vecepia had immunity at F4 and therefore did not pick a rock.

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03-27-06, 02:41 PM (EST)
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22. "Correct"
Yeah, Vee was the one whom the other three had planned to boot, but she had immunity. That meant either Kathy, Neleh or Paschal had to go. Vee and Kathy voted for Neleh. Paschal and Neleh voted for Kathy. The "purple rock" was incentive for Paschal only to change his vote, because Vee was safe regardless, and Kathy and Neleh were locked in. But he wouldn't.

And so he was gone when he got "rocked."

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03-28-06, 01:01 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Correct"
Now that you mention that, I had forgotten that she had immunity. So I guess my comment holds less weight. But, I was just using it to try and illustrate my point that the rock takes some of the control out of the players hands and leaves it to fate. Which, in my opinion is not what the game is about. Thats all.
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03-28-06, 01:05 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Correct"
The game does have an innate element of chance/ fate, no question. Look at Brian last time - he commented on the fact that it was just luck of the draw the way he ended up on the short end. Also Tina in this Survivor. Any other season, she would have been a valued tribe member for quite a while. Luck / fate is part of what makes the game great, even though we do hate it (just like in life).
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03-27-06, 04:47 PM (EST)
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23. "Is anyone else thinking..."
...this week’s boot will be Austin, not Nick?

I know TDT has a tip Austin makes jury and he has no info on Nick, but that’s the only thing out there spoilerwise. And TDT got some incorrect tips about Dan making jury.

I bring it up because an Austin boot at the merge feels much more “right” to me than a Nick boot. I do believe Austin and Nick are sharing a single story between them -- albeit Austin was chosen to tell it -- and as such they will be leaving one right after the other by the same mechanism. The order doesn’t really matter, but for me there are more signs that point to Austin going next. I’ll elaborate later, I was just wondering if anyone else felt the same way.


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03-27-06, 05:03 PM (EST)
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24. "Not sure I do."
Editing wise, Austin seems to go further than Nick, as you said he told their story. But other things point to a Nick boot. First, he is more imposing physically than Austin and would be regarded as more of a threat. More importantly, Austin was shown to connect more with Aras in Viveros. Nick thought the "energy field" idea was strange but Austin went along. If Sally has any connections with the girls of Casaya, she'd also push to keep Austin. Girls are outnumbered 6-4 and will have to start talking to save themselves. And how often have we heard Nick speaking in a preview?!

I'd like to hear your ideas but it seems to be Nick's time.

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03-27-06, 05:33 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Not sure I do."
And how often have we heard Nick speaking in a preview?!

Well, yes, precisely. Except for this week in the Singapore preview, where Nick says "...I'm outta here." Sorry, but I can't help thinking, "Oh really?" - even though this preview hasn't been shown in the US we will probably see this sequence in the episode and it smells like misdirection.

We have Austin on the other hand saying "...see if I can emerge victorious." Plus we see Austin hanging on the balance beam; no sign of Nick.

I don't think it matters who's telling their story if they get pagonged in succession. But the merge boot is more often than not someone the audience has been encouraged to invest in, whether as a narrator, a villain, snarky comic relief, someone to root for, whatever. Think Jeff in S2, Rob M in S4, Shii Ann in S5 (if you count the fake merge), Andrew in S7, Rory in S9, Coby in S10...

The audience wants to see what happens at the merge because there is always the chance the game can turn in favor of an underdog. We know Terry has the idol to get him through. Sally and Austin both have been developed much more than Nick. Does anybody really care about Nick? After a three week hiatus will anyone remember him? He wasn't even featured in the recap from what I gather, whereas Austin was painted sympathetically in his conversation with Sally.

I could easily see Austin trying really hard this week to overcome his underdog status and outdo Terry and getting his hopes dashed. Nick could be developed a little bit next time when he gets tossed as an afterthought.

At least, this seems extremely plausible to me, so I don't feel like jumping on a Nick bandwagon yet. That Singapore preview really bothers me.


Not to mention that Dan said on SLive that he'd love to take Austin on a space flight because he's so much fun to hang around with.

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03-28-06, 09:30 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Not sure I do."
LAST EDITED ON 03-28-06 AT 09:38 AM (EST)

BR, I definately feel the same way that you do. If it were not for Veruca's editing thread I'd have no doubts that it would be Austin this week. Austin clearly is far more of a "player", while Nick is just so passive. Clearly Austin is the bigger threat of the two. And that promo in Singapore with Nick voicing "I'm outta here", screams misdirection to me as well. But, Sally could be his saving grace as I do think that she's far closer to Austin than Nick and perhaps she could influence the female(Cirie, Danielle, Courtney, and Shane ) Casaya's?

But one question, where is Austin seen hanging on the balance beam....think I missed that one?

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03-28-06, 11:13 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Not sure I do."
LAST EDITED ON 03-28-06 AT 11:31 AM (EST)

Hmm, Fp, I could have sworn there was a cap of Austin on the beam but I don't see it now. I probably mistook Shane for Austin when I was skimming through those caps.

I'll have to reread VS's thoughts, but for me I don't get why Austin has to last longer just because he talks more out of the two of them. As far as their story, we know they allied with Dan/Terry; and we're getting a dynamic that they may have an F2 alliance. But they never say anything about that; in fact neither one ever talks about the other one in terms of the game. There's been nothing at all to "separate" one from the other.

If there were some inkling that they might go different ways at some point that would be one thing, but there just isn't. That's what makes me think they leave back to back, and the order doesn't really matter from an editing standpoint, imo. They may have felt that Austin's confessionals were more entertaining.

ETA: I'm not sure what to think about Sally -- I do agree she seems closer to Austin but I don't know that that will translate into anything helpful to him post-merge. Especially since it seems that Sally won't be getting very far herself.

But I will think about this some more. P.S. I'm glad you are at least considering it too, so I don't feel like I'm totally crazy.



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03-28-06, 12:24 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Not sure I do."
You do make some interesting points BR. Personally, I'm not convinced that Sally doesnt make it farther than we may think at the moment. See my earlier comments about this (in this thread? Not sure ) Anyway, I'll add Brandon from last season to your list of players we invested in.
It just sits better with me that we'll see Nick this episode, but he'll be gone this one as well. Thats pretty much what they did with Ruth Marie, Bobby, and Dan to some extent.
The comments that Austin and Nick make that you refer to might hold more weight with me if we hadnt consistenly gotten a stronger, positive edit from Austin that Nick all along. I just dont see the editing from the beginning leading to Nick outlasting Austin. It just doesnt seem to fit for me in that sense.
In the end, I think Sally is the key player this episode, and what she chooses will determine how it all goes down. I think she knows Terry has the idol (and apparently he wins immunity), and I dont see her voting for Austin, so I think if she goes against La Mina by joining with the women she'll convince them on Nick.
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03-28-06, 01:04 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Not sure I do."
I just dont see the editing from the beginning leading to Nick outlasting Austin.

I should clarify that if one of them were going to be booted before the merge, yes I would agree it would have been Nick, because of their respective places in the context of the La Mina tribe's editing.

But with the merge La Mina is no more. To me the editing "hierarchy" we saw there need not apply any longer. Plenty of editing non-entities have edged past more spotlighted players after getting to the merge.


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03-28-06, 06:11 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Not sure I do."
and we're getting a dynamic that they may have an F2 alliance. But they never say anything about that; in fact neither one ever talks about the other one in terms of the game. There's been nothing at all to "separate" one from the other.

If there were some inkling that they might go different ways at some point that would be one thing, but there just isn't.

Actually BR there was something that raised a red flag for me when I saw it in the last episode. It occured when Dan was talking alone with Nick at the shelter regarding 2 v 2, and Dan was inquiring if Austin wanted to go or not, and Nick said, I don't think so, but I'll ask him, and then Dan mentioned that he didn't think that Nick would vote out Austin, and Nick replied, no, I could never vote for Austin....

At the time when I saw this, it raised a red flag, as though it could indeed mean that Nick will vote Austin???

To me, Austin fits the OFG theory more, his confessional screams boot to me, and then with the confessional that was shown in Singapore with Nick saying he's outta there, that all just really points to Austin to me.

But, on the other hand, VS is usually right on with these things, and we know that some times EPMB like to hide the boot completely in the pre-boot ep....could be Nick. I'm really torn here as well.

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03-28-06, 06:44 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Not sure I do."
Nick replied, no, I could never vote for Austin....

I remember that too, Fp, but that was in his conversation with Dan and it didn't seem overly "pointed" to me. If Nick had said that in a confessional it would seem more noteworthy, imo. I meant that Austin and Nick never mention each other in confessionals (except maybe about the diarrhea incident .

The impression I got from VS was that she thought Austin's story could sustain past Nick's in the same way that Sally's has gone past Misty's and Terry's is going past Dan's. Terry and Sally both moved on to another phase of the game. But I don't really see that happening with Austin. If Nick is pagonged first, Austin will be pagonged second, is what I'm getting from their edit. So yeah, he might outlast him but only until the next TC.


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03-30-06, 10:49 AM (EST)
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34. "CBS eye mail"
Just got my CBS eye mail and the strange thing was that there was no picture with it??? There were misdirection clues however....

It's bittersweet for one Survivor stranded alone on Exile Island. Already know that this pertains to Sally, and they will all open their collective arms to her upon her return to the merged camp...

Even though the company is nice, one castaway struggles with the monotony of camp life. Hmmmm, this is something new, and who really cares? Does this mean it's going to be a boring ep if this is all they have to ponder???

When the two tribes finally become one, the Survivors celebrate together, but hidden agendas quickly take over the camp. Terry plotting to get some of the Casaya's to join up with the dwindling La Mina's....

Building a bigger shelter becomes a dangerous project and leaves one Survivor with a chipped tooth and a cut lip. Bruce, but will it spell boot for Nick???

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03-30-06, 11:05 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: CBS eye mail"
Re #2, the only person we've really heard go on about that before is Shane, when he was talking about how busy-busy-busy his real life is and here there's nothing to do. So I'd bet it's him saying well the company didn't really change anything, it's still boring.


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03-30-06, 11:34 AM (EST)
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36. "Who is the exilee? "
I have been considering this question alot. I think there are several scenarios to consider. If there are 2 standard challenges the winner of the RC will most likely pick the exilee. If there is only one challenge, then perhaps the first one off will be the exilee, or perhaps there will be no exilee, and that's why there will be 2 exiled next week.

If it is the first one off of the bar, then I am considering Sally or Cirie. Sally is shown struggling in the vidcaps, and we know that she's really not eating anything of substance...

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03-30-06, 12:05 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Who is the exilee? "
I am going with Sally if it is first one off the bar.

Here is why:
We think it is only one challenge this week due to the merge

We see the orange LaMina flag in the background of everyone lining up before the challenge, indicating they didn't merge prior to coming to the challenge.

We see everyone all mixed in together which means this isn't a team challenge, therefore, they are now merged.

We see Nick, Austin, and Terry in the boat with their stuff (a crate can be seen) and Casaya coming out to greet them.

Sally is no where to be seen, although everyone else can be accounted for.

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03-30-06, 01:05 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Who is the exilee? "
We see Nick, Austin, and Terry in the boat with their stuff (a crate can be seen) and Casaya coming out to greet them.

Sally is no where to be seen, although everyone else can be accounted for

But that's because Sally is still on EI from last week at the beginning of the episode. She arrives at the camp separately.

I don't think there is either an RC or a new exile this week. All of the misdirection blurbs about EI talk about Sally's time there and her return to the merged tribes.


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03-30-06, 11:54 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: CBS eye mail"
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-06 AT 11:55 AM (EST)

A. Easy - Sally in confessional, It sucks being out here, but I would have been gone otherwise.
2. Company is nice makes me think LaMina. Perhaps Terry since he voted off his friends. Or is this the best they can show of Nick/Austin to complete the storyline before the vote?
}. Easy again. We already saw Terry talking to Bruce.
D. Did the person writing these get as bored as we did after a three week break? Bruce. We already saw it.

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03-30-06, 01:08 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: CBS eye mail"
It's bittersweet for one Survivor stranded alone on Exile Island.

Flowerpower said: "Already know that this pertains to Sally, and they will all open their collective arms to her upon her return to the merged camp..."

I interpreted this differently. The exile will be decided at the Monkey Hang IC. Either the first person to drop or the winner picks who goes. Either way, they will be safe from TC, therefore - bittersweet.

-montanagirl

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03-30-06, 01:47 PM (EST)
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41. "Screener summary"
Posted on Sucks:

Gnarl24
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Posts: 804
(3/30/06 12:13 pm)
Reply
ezSupporter

Re: EP8 Title: An Emerging Plan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
aintitcoolnews.com/display.cgi?id=22890

Grisly Machete Violence!!

Herc’s Seen (Most Of) The First New SURVIVOR Since March 9!!

I am – Hercules!!

10 survivors remain, and things are heating up in tonight’s excellent “Survivor” installment!

Four-member La Mina, devastated by the loss of Astronaut Dan, get some bad news at the top of tonight’s episode. They’re to paddle over to the six-member Casaya tribe and merge. La Mina outsider Sally, returning soon after from Exile Island, joins the new tribe soon after. Handsome new black buffs are issued.

At a numbers disadvantage, La Mina pilot Terry lobbies hard to bring one of the Casaya into an alliance with his fellow La Minans. A key target is karate teacher Bruce, who still feels much the outsider in a fearful tribe cigarette-junkie Shane continues to rule.

Terry, long the La Mina leader, is quickly identified as the next target by the Casayans, who believe the graying flyboy did not find the Exile Island Immunity Thingie (or EIIT).

Things get so ugly, a machete blow of great force will slice deeply into contestant flesh!

The immunity challenge turns out to be a simple endurance test, requiring the castaways to hang from elevated logs like so much drying laundry. To no one’s astonishment, leaf-fearing Cirie is the first to drop. Then another La Minan. The machete victim is third to fall. Nicotine-addicted Shane lobbies Jeff Probst for snack-bribes, but none are forthcoming.

CBS again snipped the last few minutes out of the screener, so I couldn’t tell you who gets the boot this week – even if I wanted to.

-----------------------------------------------------------------


Interesting that Casaya doesn't think Terry has the HII. Sally must be the second one to fall off the beam in the IC, although it says "another" La Minan and Cirie isn't a La Minan so maybe he's confused and it's a Casaya.


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03-30-06, 02:14 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Screener summary"
Montana girl...if you go up to the top of this thread, you can see that we've already had a blurb regarding Sally as the bittersweet exilee, note OFG has bolded it....

Nice find there, BR, sounds like anyone of us could have completely predicted this episode, except, no mention of anyone being exiled...perhaps there will be no exile tonight as you suggest?

So, if Casaya's don't believe he has the idol, and then tonight he win's the IC, I'm betting he won't win immunity in ep 8, thus causing the Casaya's to stew about what to do with Terry...as we've pretty much speculated happens anyway!


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