|
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
|
"SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4"
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 04:46 AM (EST)
 
  |
|
"SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
In a surprising twist of events, a banished Surviror thrives on Exile Island, leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire.The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession. Constant bickering between tribemates leaves one Survivor regretting an alliance with a bunch of lunatics. After the previous Tribal Council, one Survivor begins to worry. Will valiant effort and a competitive nature be enough to keep this castaway in the game? 
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 04:54 AM (EST)
|
|
1. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-17-06 AT 06:26 AM (EST)In a surprising twist of events, a banished Surviror thrives on Exile Island, leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire. Title being Starvation and Lunacy, the promo puts the starvation theme at La Mina and Lunacy at Casaya. Although La Mina ought to be struggling less with all its won, I think it's got to be the tribe described in this clue, therefore that loses the RC. My candidate from La Mina most likely to thrive on EI would be Terry. With Terry gone, only poisonous pufferfish for La Mina! It might not be Terry, but I think his absence would most de-center the tribe. If Casaya gets to choose the Exile, I think Terry's the clear choice. The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession. which would mean Casaya wins RC, as someone screws up royally ... What reward could get contaminated that isn't food? Drinking water? A pot? Constant bickering between tribemates leaves one Survivor regretting an alliance with a bunch of lunatics. Casaya again. You're all nuts. Get over it. Seriously, Aras has already said he's allied with three nut jobs. Shane though has played pot calling kettle black by saying Courtney's a lunatic. After the previous Tribal Council, one Survivor begins to worry. Will valiant effort and a competitive nature be enough to keep this castaway in the game? Presumably on La Mina. Someone feeling vulnerable. Sally or RuthMarie, one because she was out of the loop on the vote, one because she got two votes. This last episode I felt concerned for RuthMarie. She looked very strained. Sally looked worried too after TC. Although both are competitive and making big efforts, "valiant effort" and "competitive nature" sounds to me like competitive runner RuthMarie who is not doing well physically, therefore the valiant effort. I'm feeling like RuthMarie is in trouble next time. Jeff hinted that he worried about RuthMarie not having the body fat to withstand much hunger. By Day 12 she might be scary!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
 |
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 06:47 AM (EST)
|
|
2. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
I'm in agreement, OFG. The most likely one to thrive at EI while the others are left starving and struggling with fire is TERRY! But, I did take pause when I read leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire.....La Mina has had no trouble with their fire ever, have they, while Casaya has had alot of trouble with it....this perplexes me a bit and could open the door for other possibilities. Could the exiled one be Aras? Just throwing it out there.The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession I also get the impression that this could be referring to Casaya. I can't help but wonder if this involves Danielle somehow, when Shane is heard telling her, Everybody here won't tell you, they're afraid to tell you the truth..... I totally agree with OFG regarding the last 2 clues. Did you all notice that there was no one shown eating a snake dinner last night....why do we even bother with CBS??? ARGHHHHH! 
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Georgianna 514 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-17-06, 10:54 AM (EST)
|
|
8. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-17-06 AT 11:19 AM (EST)Flowerpower: I'm in agreement, OFG. The most likely one to thrive at EI while the others are left starving and struggling with fire is TERRY! But, I did take pause when I read leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire.....La Mina has had no trouble with their fire ever, have they, while Casaya has had alot of trouble with it....this perplexes me a bit and could open the door for other possibilities. Could the exiled one be Aras? Just throwing it out there. And I'm in agreement with you: "struggling for food and fire" is far more likely to refer to Casaya than to La Mina. Not only because La Mina has never seemed to have a problem with fire (while Casaya's lack of it was underscored by the necessity for a water purification method other than boiling), but also because they now have kerosene lanterns (which I think presupposes that they also have matches). In fact, Terry commented that the kerosene was a guarantee that his tribe 'would always have fire'. Add to that the fact that it wouldn't be particularly "surprising" for any of the male members of La Mina to "thrive" on the Island, and I think that Episode Four's Exile candidates are narrowed to Casaya. And since we have now, in three Episodes, had three different scenarios for selecting the Exiled, I don't think that we can count on an immediate repetition of the last one. But perhaps we are back to the first: the losing tribe must choose one of their own to banish. And who more "surprising" to thrive, or more likely to be banished, or more in need of rehabilitation than ... Shane. Which would, of course, mean that the "excitement over winning a Reward Challenge" that leads to a "tribemate's contamination of a prized possession" that, in turn, causes "a stir within the tribe" occurs at La Mina. And the wording (and the fact that we have been told that a "luxury item" comes into play this Season) suggests to me that perhaps the "possession" is personal to an individual rather than a communal asset. But what sort of "luxury item" might lend itself to "contamination" is beyond me ... ETA: If either Trudy (see Post #7) or I happen(s) to be right, my (contaminator) money is on Sally. When it rains on a Sagittarian's parade, it usually pours!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 04:52 PM (EST)
|
|
10. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
La Mina has had no trouble with their fire ever, have theyMisty, from the Insider: "Oh, I'm sure when I get home people will be like, 'What's the big deal? You guys couldn't keep the fire going,' and I'm going to say, 'OK, why don't you go outside after a rainstorm, you get a fire going and see how long you can keep it lasting.' (laughs) It's a constant chore." So La Mina did have some trouble keeping the fire up. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 06:46 PM (EST)
|
|
13. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
After reading everything in this thread I still feel that LaMina loses RC and IC too.The episode title, "Starvation and Lunacy," appears to me it will be describing the keyword for each camp next time. Lunacy we know is Casaya. Ep 3 (Day 7) opened with Nick explaining that La Mina will soon be so weak from hunger they will all be on their asses. Three days later, on Day 10, it will be worse. By Day 12 it will be dire. Plus we were shown that TERRY is the only one who got them an edible fish. TERRY said they no longer need to sweat fire as they have the lantern. They didn't get matches. They got kerosene which needs to be lit with a fire made using the flint or from a continuously burning campfire. A rain that puts out both fires and gets all the wood wet, with Terry gone, would render LM fireless. If so, we were shown Terry as provider as foreshadowing for when they lose Terry. Terry saying they can't lose fire--ironic foreshadowing for when they do. Is the "theme" for S12 something like "even the inept survive, but not well?" Such an emphasis on ineptitude. Note on fire:
As we saw in Ep 3, Casaya was ABLE to make fire with Bruce's help, it was just going to take some time. The water filtration system was a post-TC night operation to get some water in them. Bruce asked whether they wanted water first or fire and they chose water. The next morning he made fire. The water filtration system is no longer needed now they can boil water. I agree with FP that the contamination is at Casaya. Look at Courtney sitting with items strewn around and mud, the standing water at camp. Someone messed up. Dunno if it is Danielle, as Shane is capable of yelling any off the wall thing and could just be ranting about lack of frankness in the alliance rather than specifically warning Danielle. I think Courtney could do something dumb as we saw her brag that she knows about survival, but really they are all inept except Bruce. While Cirie could do something dumb, I believe that the contamination is done by one of the Lunatic Fringe Alliance as it's just one more stress on the mismatched allies. Teasers are almost always written in the order they appear in the show. The final teaser says someone is worried as a result of the previous TC. I'm thinking this is not a post-TC scene from early in the episode, rather a post-IC loss, pre Ep4 TC worry. Since it refers back to the "previous TC" I think this tells us La Mina is going back to TC and either Sally or Ruth are worried they're next. Both have reason to worry. However, with "starvation" as the theme, I do believe RM will get even weaker from hunger whereas Sally will not be that badly off. And I agree with Brownroach the answer to such questions is almost always NO. I expect Sally and RM are both quite vulnerable this time. I think it all depends on how badly off RM is physically. JP's sole comment about RM in the teleconference expressed his concern that she didn't come in with any spare weight and would not withstand an extended period of hunger. While Sally is now completely on the outside of a tribal alliance, she is also not an immediate danger to Terry's alliance now that Misty is gone. There is no pressing strategic need to get rid of Sally IF she is able to contribute in the challenges, as she's making every effort to be congenial. Jeff said her strategy was to find the middle ground and not become a target. When La Mina loses THREE challenges in a row, I think challenge performance will be huge when they discuss the next boot. If we had an idea that Sally would cause a loss I would be leaning towards her as boot. Otherwise I think RM, who was a great runner when she had energy but will be all out of gas by Day 12, or so I believe.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Georgianna 514 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-18-06, 00:58 AM (EST)
|
|
16. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-18-06 AT 01:25 AM (EST)Hi, OFG First, I need to admit that, because I was trying like crazy to finish, correct and submit a post (before it became totally obsolete) that I had intended to put up days earlier, I only half-watched Episode Three (and I hadn't set the DVR to record it). So, Bruce's firebuilding was completely lost on me. As to the matches: I presumed them because, having lit a lot of kerosene lanterns with their steady, controlled flame (but never with an irregularly-burning, ember-dripping firebrand), I thought that, as a safety measure, matches would accompany the lanterns (at least, I think that I saw two lanterns). But then I always think that at some point it may dawn on more than just a handful of Survivors that knowing how to build, bank and shelter a campfire from wind and rain (and firewood from moisture) and how to construct and maintain a cooking pit might be a tad useful. So, you may well be as right about the Challenges (and about Terry) as you are about "ineptitude". Certainly the spoilers have it that Dan is one of the 12-Day Wonders. And speaking of Dan ... He came into the Game with (proportionally) no more ample a store of body fat than did RuthMarie. And, since he was a leading member of the majority that established Challenge-fitness/performance as the criterion for La Mina boot selection, he could become a quite worried tall, thinner man by Day Twelve. However, in that case I am fairly confident that the answer to the question would be "Hell, yeah!" But, whether at Casaya or La Mina, "tribemate" (rather than "tribemember"), "prized" (rather than "valuable") and "possession" (rather than "resource" or its equivalent) still sounds like a personal problem to me ... But then I'm the one who thought that the only flint that would ever be found on Exile Island was already there: with the Idol. And instead, Jeff just handed a perfectly healthy specimen of the firestarter to the departing Bruce (who promptly hacked it to an untimely death with his handy machete). So, I've decided to think (until next Thursday at 9:00 PM EST) that there is a something-else with the Idol that will "Change The Game Forever!" : a second $1,000,000. Find it and the Idol and a player may keep the Million, return the Idol and leave the Game or continue playing and risk the sure one for a chance to win two at the Finale. I mean, in the age of multi-million-dollar lottery jackpots, a measly $1,000,000 (before taxes) is becoming, not only old, but shabby as well. And, since CBS has cross-our-heart-and-hope-to-die-promised (sort of) to tell us what happens on Exile Island to "Change The Game Forever!" next week, I can hardly wait ... 
Theory: Two hats are better than one!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
Estee 57126 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 08:14 AM (EST)
|
|
3. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
Almost completely random guesses.In a surprising twist of events, a banished Surviror thrives on Exile Island, leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire. Dan or Terry: both have the survival training to make something of ExI's limited resources (unlike all-talk, no-shelter Bruce), and either might conceivably do better without their tribemates holding them back. Or at least without their tribemates watching them perform at full capacity, then saying 'That's our provider. Let's get rid of him before he wins over the jury!' I'm guessing Dan because at this point, the number of people who have a chance to find mini-idol might come into play, and he's gotta go sometime.
The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession. For no apparent reason whatsoever, I think this is another coffee machine. It could be a water filtration system not designed by Bruce -- but it makes sense for it to be something that the tribe can't make on their own, and that can't be cleaned that easily with the items they have on hand. Maybe someone tries to wash their bikini in the filter. Constant bickering between tribemates leaves one Survivor regretting an alliance with a bunch of lunatics. 'Well, that could be any Survivor.' But it's probably Shane displaying his world-class ability to judge other people's psyches. Again. After the previous Tribal Council, one Survivor begins to worry. Will valiant effort and a competitive nature be enough to keep this castaway in the game? Ruth Marie, and yes, of course it will, they asked the question and since when has the answer been 'No' if a negative would lead to a boot? Ever?
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 08:52 AM (EST)
|
|
4. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
In a surprising twist of events, a banished Surviror thrives on Exile Island, leaving the tribe back at camp struggling for food and fire. We've got spoiler information that Terry goes to Exile Island at some point. If the winning RC tribe picks who goes for the loser, it would make sense for him to go here. After all, he was the best performer during the prior RC, so Casaya would have him pegged as a stronger member of the tribe. The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession. Prized possession - I don't think this refers to something newly won in the RC. I think this refers to the highly praised water filtration system Bruce put in place for Casaya. It could be as simple as someone reclaiming their T-shirt, saying they want to wear the clean shirt they brought with them. Shane would be a likely candidate - he criticized Bruce's system, and he made a big deal about not sharing the "thinking seat" he had claimed as his. I could see him throwing a hissy fit about other people using "his" shirt. Constant bickering between tribemates leaves one Survivor regretting an alliance with a bunch of lunatics. Agree that this is one of the granola four on Casaya. After the previous Tribal Council, one Survivor begins to worry. Will valiant effort and a competitive nature be enough to keep this castaway in the game? Begins to worry says Sally to me more than Ruth Marie. As we saw at TC, Ruth Marie was already worried, since everyone else in the tribe had a built in alliance buddy from their original tribe, but she was on her own. But Sally just lost her alliance mate and realized that her strategy wasn't going to save her - they had gambled on an alliance with Nick and Austin and lost. And will it save her? No. We got a negative edit of her in Ep. 3 - her losing the spear, which had been downplayed in the episode where it happened, was brought up in this episode. She's outside the main alliance, and she made a mistake that contributed to the continued starvation of the tribe, so she's the target.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 09:18 AM (EST)
|
|
5. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-17-06 AT 09:20 AM (EST)These do seem much more straightforward than usual:
1- Terry. Although FP has a good point about the fire. The storm we see in the previews could cause the problem La Mina can't solve without Terry. 2- Ih has to mean Casaya wins RC because they are the ones (Shane) that causes a stir even when something good happens! Who is the tribemate making the error? Danielle? 3- Shane is the one calling others lunatics 4- Bebo is right; Sally begins to worry but I think the answer is always Yes for the reason that Estee gives! So she will be safe this time! Too straightforward? Maybe we should worry!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-17-06, 09:28 AM (EST)
|
|
6. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-17-06 AT 09:28 AM (EST)The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within one tribe, as a tribemate contaminates a prized possession. Couple the preview vidcaps with this clue and I think something the Casaya tribe has is left by someone on the tribe(perhaps Danielle) where it is contaminated by the flood from the torrential rains....and ruined. Something wasn't placed high enough....could be something that they already had or most likely something that they could have won...like food of some kind perhaps.....like rice???
|
|
|
Top |
| |
JazzyJax 531 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-17-06, 11:10 AM (EST)
|
|
9. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-17-06 AT 11:33 AM (EST)You know, clue 1 and 3 seem to fit this week's show. Bruce surprisingly ended up back on EX, and Casaya was shown struggling (though after the fact.) Just IMO, but Terry or Dan would compensate for the other if either was exiled. It appears any one of the luny-iance mates are fed up with the others, though Aras was the one shown talking about it. I wonder if CBS transposed some of the clues and the snake and contamination thing comes up this next time (E4) instead? The promos do show more of a starving theme. 
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Karchita 4483 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
|
02-17-06, 10:20 PM (EST)
|
|
15. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
1. I think this is Casaya and Bruce, who is still on EI at the start of E4. Maybe he finds the II. I thought what Terry meant about always having fire now that they have the lantern was that they could use the kerosine to start a fire, if need be.
2. Since they don't say food, I like the idea that it is someone's luxury item. Either it is damaged while they are gone at the RC or after they get back and are celebrating. I don't recall seeing anyone's luxury items this season, but if we see one highlighted early in the show, we will know.
3. Could be any of the lunatics at Casaya.
4. Agree that it would most likely be Sally who begins to worry.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-18-06, 11:43 PM (EST)
|
|
17. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-18-06 AT 11:53 PM (EST)Went and looked this up at Fever:
La Mina Ep 3 reward items:
A kerosene lantern, water canisters, blankets, pillows, rope and a tarp Ep 2 fishing gear
Ep 1 - machete, flint, and pot for everyone casaya has gotten nothing else, shouldn't have a shovel unless they win RC (should they?)
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-19-06, 08:15 AM (EST)
|
|
18. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
When I saw that shovel that Danielle is holding in the preview vidcaps I thought the same thing, OFG. They are NOT given shovels as a means for their bathroom areas are they? At least I never thought that they were...
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-19-06, 06:24 PM (EST)
|
|
29. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
It looks that way, Rudy.
I agree with your post above that "kerosene" is an excellent candidate for contamination. The thing is: it's the RC winners that have the contamination. If it were La Mina's kerosene, then they win RC, and someone from Casaya would be exiled and would apparently find the idol. Casaya wouldn't get a shovel either.We can be pretty sure it's Casaya that fits the teasers for one tribe reaching the meltdown point, for lunacy and for bickering. The contamination would seem to lead to "issues" that would fuel the bickering, as it changes the tribe's mood on a dime. So I think Casaya wins RC. Doubtful that a lantern would be the prize twice, but maybe this reward gives a choice of survival items and they get a kerosene lantern as part of the package? It would seem that at this stage the producers are giving out survival tools and not actual food and drink, so I don't think it's rice. While "prized possession" sounds like something they already have, I dunno, web teasers aren't known for having the best wording.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Georgianna 514 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-19-06, 09:50 AM (EST)
|
|
19. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-19-06 AT 10:19 AM (EST)ShweatyBalls has posted this version of the CBS press release at Sucks. It is not attributed in the post. And the CBS site is still rolling the wording that OFG has posted here. But I thought that the decided difference in the language of the two (particularly the portion that I've highlighted) was worth noting. "Press release :
A BANISHED CASTAWAY THRIVES ON EXILE ISLAND, ON "SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND," THURSDAY, FEB. 23 "Starvation and Lunacy" -- A banished castaway thrives on Exile Island, on SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND, Thursday, Feb. 23 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network. In a surprising change of events, a banished castaway thrives on Exile Island while the rest of their tribe struggles for food and fire back at camp. The excitement over winning a Reward Challenge immediately causes a stir within the tribe when one survivor contaminates their prized possession. Constant bickering and shouting matches between tribe members leaves one castaway regretting their alliance with, what they consider, a "bunch of lunatics." After the last Tribal Council, one castaway begins to worry they too may be in danger. Will their strong efforts and competitive nature be enough to keep them in the game? And, the fourth member is voted out of the tribe."  | ETA: This graphic introduces the text. Perhaps some of you recognize the source? |
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-19-06, 11:03 AM (EST)
|
|
20. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
Wow Georgiana, you have really given me some food for thought....would Ruth Marie or Sally really be "blindsided" by them being the boot??? I don't think so. RM is the oldest and weakest female who came in with no ally, while Sally has just lost her strongest ally and realizes that she's the odd woman out.....but what about Austin? He had a huge spike in his D confessionals this week as per Corvis' blog and he thinks that he's in good with the old boys. He's in the preview vidcaps so fits with the OFG theory, and I think he'd definately qualify to be "blindsided" at the TC. He certainly makes strong efforts and has a competitive nature....hmmmmmm?
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-19-06, 12:05 PM (EST)
|
|
22. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
The thing that separates Nick and Austin this week is their confessional analysis, which can be seen here. They both are in the preview vidcaps and qualify for the OFG theory. They both would be blindsided, they both have the competivive nature and drive as noted in the CBS misdirection clues.That's why I'd favor Austin as a boot candidate over Nick. Sally is the other one most at risk, imo, while Ruth Marie has been edited as the most likely to be the boot.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-19-06, 02:17 PM (EST)
|
|
24. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
You make a good point, michel, as always! But, this is just intended to provoke thought and I think we need to consider all possibilities.....after all, we want the Daw's to be blindsided, and not for us to be!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
|
02-19-06, 02:53 PM (EST)
|
|
25. "Terry's in control of the tribe" |
FP, I agree that Austin is at risk and would definitely qualify as blindsided if he goes this week. I also agree that Nick falls into the same category.The key to La Mina is Terry. He is definitely controlling the tribe. His reasoning for booting Misty last week was that she's "smart as hell". He is going about the game methodically and wants to take out threats first. Not necessarily physical threats, but mental threats as well. Terry seems to have his agenda well laid out. He took out Misty because the 4 younger people posed a threat to the 3 older people. Remember Ruth Marie alluded to 'her alliance' in her vote against Misty. I think it's obvious that Terry & Dan brought Ruth Marie into their alliance, we just haven't been shown it. Now a threat remains because there are still 3 younger people left and that could still pose a threat to the 3 older people. Terry has to take out another younger person to ensure he remains in control. Because Nick & Austin are a pair, it would be more important to take out one of them then the lone younger female. I think Sally is safe this week. The question that remains is which one, Nick or Austin? Confessional analysis points to Austin, but I'm not convinced by that alone. As pointed out below, editing patterns change.
I'm more inclined to think that Nick is a bigger threat to Terry than Austin. I see Terry as going after the one that he thinks is a bigger mental threat. At this point I can't decide which will go, but I think one of the pair definitely is blindsided and goes this week. 
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-19-06, 04:55 PM (EST)
|
|
26. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
After the last Tribal Council, one castaway begins to worry they too may be in danger. Will their strong efforts and competitive nature be enough to keep them in the game? > I believe this blurb restates Teaser #4 (quoted above).
Sally is blindsided, i.e. in a blindsided state in Ep4 due to the outcome of the previous TC. This promo tells me that Sally is the answer to teaser #4, because of RM and Sally, only Sally was blindsided. She was blindsided because Nick (and Austin) indicated they would be up for voting out RM. RM wasn't blindsided because she voted with "her alliance" and the two votes against her came from outside any alliance. I don't think this is talking about the Ep4 TC being a blindside. CBS has a habit of restating its teasers, and we already have a teaser that says much the same as this new blurb. I think to go down the road of predicting an Ep4 blindside will complicate the Ep4 strategy in a way that it doesn't deserve. I think LM is faced with a straightforward yet difficult choice: boot Sally (and she will be the boot favorite going into TC) because she's outside the alliance? Boot Ruth Marie because she's low on energy and LM loses THREE challenges in a row? Terry will not let them boot Dan unless Dan feels so bad that he begs to go, IMHO, and with 6 people in the tribe, it takes four votes to prevent a tie. There's just no impetus for Nick and Austin to force a tie at this point. Their best bet at 6 players is to stay the course with Terry's alliance. It would be smart for them to try to persuade Terry to off RM, because if they keep Sally they have a younger player majority over the two older men. I am assuming it's Terry and Dan who told Ruth Marie she was safe and gave her a 5th wheel place in the LM alliance. I think the boot will be determined by Terry. He should want to keep the team strong and fight for the opportunity to merge at 5-5 instead of 6-4. Question is, who does he assess as the player who will help them get there--Sally or Ruth Marie. If it is 6 of 1 half dozen of the other, he should protect RM and ditch Sally. If Sally performs well in the challences and RM flails out of hunger weakness, he should regretfully ditch Ruth Marie. Now, RuthMarie may be a little surprised if she is booted, but I still think the teaser refers to "the action" of Ep 4, not the outcome of Ep 4's TC. That's my take on Ep4. Ep5 may be more interesting in terms of strategy and power plays!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Carnac The Adequate 57 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
02-20-06, 02:51 PM (EST)
|
|
32. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
I think the numbers tell a very different story.We have seen that Terry and Dan have had a "stealth" alliance with Ruth Marie, and she really needs to hold to that alliance - based on her waning physical strength. This leaves Terry's potential opposition on LaMina as 1) Sally (clear member of the now-defunct "girls/young-people's alliance") and 2) Nick/Austin who are allied, and "remained loyal," but were clearly a risk to the possibility of a young v old schism.
7:6 becomes 7:5 -- Casaya's in the lead
With six members on the tribe now (compared to seven on Casaya), Terry recognizes that LaMina must hold on to what it has to prosper in the merge. The minute they fall to 7:5 (i.e -- right after this loss) it becomes time to start circling the wagons for the latter half of the game (post merge), rather than struggling to win immunity.
("Immunity" within the Tribe now becomes more important than immunity within the game. You only get immunity within the Tribe through numbers.)
With only two (or perhaps three) more ICs before the merge (after this episode's), the BEST that LaMina can hope for going into the merge from this point, already behind, would be 5:5, most likely they are looking at 6:4, and they could well be facing 7:3. Even with the possiblity of Bruce falling in with the "combined elder's tribe" (Terry/Dan/Ruth Marie ... Bruce), this leaves Terry vulnerable. So, with the odds of having a majority against him and his tribe, and the prospect of carrying additional strength into the latter game to compete against, should Terry hang onto the younger men? No. Clearly his better option it to take a loyal group of followers in with him, and hope they can survive, and take this opportunity to get rid of now any potential negative votes he might have to face on the jury (because he "betrayed them").
How do we choose?
Ruth Marie is a known quantity: in need, proven loyal, strong work ethic ... and not hard to beat if you get her to the final three (she WILL be spent). If LaMina drops her, the power in the group shifts to young people. (3:2) Not acceptable. Nick, Austin and Sally can take us out. To survive, then, we must win EVERY immunity challange from here to the merge. (Yeah, right!) Unless a major shift occurs, Ruth Marie will vote with Terry and Dan. ("Keep your friends close.")
Sally, who is neither strong nor weak, but is already outside our alliance and (based on the votes) has clearly been working against us. If we drop her, we solidify our core four-plus-one. Not a bad choice.
But she is already "alone." In her current solitary, vulnerable state, she would need to rely on the largesse of the "group" and support us. She may be more use to us alone and afraid, and by our side. If nothing else, as an easy "sacrifice" later. ("Keep your enemies closer.")
Nick, on the other hand .... if LaMina must loose someone now, loosing Nick may reduce our potential for winning more challenges in the meantime, but that is a dice shoot. Casaya must sit out members to keep the challenges equal, and not all challenges are physical.
Dropping Nick now eliminates him as someone to compete against in physical challenges after the merge, and keeps a strong, possibly "ambitious" member off of any potential future "young v old" splits that may develop. ("Leave not a weapon your enemy may use.") It also separates him and Austin as a potential "voting block," leaving not only Sally alone, but also leaves Austin alone, as well. At best, Austin and Sally have only each other to cling to. (The prospects of a Sally/Austin/RUTH MARIE alliance are pretty unlikely. She is already loyal to Terry/Dan, and by being "spared" this time, she is likely to reamin loyal.) Sacrificing Nick leaves us with two potential "followers" who have little choice but to follow.
Austin? He is not as physically imposing as Nick, and he can be ditched before the merge as well, to loose that other pesky potential "you betrayed me" negative vote prospect.
The Final Analysis Step 1
By cutting Nick loose now, Terry solidifies Ruth Marie, maintains a "numbers" lead, and eliminates competition. If he cuts Ruth Maries, he increases his risk on all fronts. If he cuts Sally, he gains and losses nothing. Step 2
If Terry has to make a second sacrifice, Austin can be dropped, further soldifying Ruth Marie, and giving him the chance to "rescue" Sally, possibly solidifying her, and cutting his challenge obstacles further. Step 3
If Terry has to cut a third person -- he can keep Ruth Marie VERY solid by dropping Sally. She won't be necessary at all at that point. LaMina's members will be "in the wild" and won't need a former renegade around anyway.
I honestly see Nick going this week.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
knuckles487 178 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
02-21-06, 05:12 PM (EST)
|
|
40. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
Ok, I've seen just about all the possibilities mentioned and I'm still not convinced one way or the other yet. Since irrational thought is my biggest drawback....I mean, uhhh.....asset, yeah that's it, my biggest asset, I will throw this out there to see if you all think it might hold water or not.First, something happens to change the game forever but I can't imagine how just FINDING the immunity idol will do that. Seems it would have to be USED to qualify for that statement. Next, someone thrives on exile island while the rest of the tribe struggles for food and fire. Everyone is thinking Terry is exiled since they feel he would thrive best. I still think that Dan could do pretty well also with the training he has undoubtedly had. Even if by some chance he hasn't had any, he could surprise us. Finally, we are being led to believe that Sally would be the one worried about being booted, so she is probably not the one. Ruth Marie also appears to be a target because everyone thinks she is getting frail and weak. Terry has shown that he is smart so somewhere in his head he has to be thinking that it is possible the young guys and Sally could turn on him if he loses his numbers. Therefore, it is kind of hard to believe that he would want to vote out RM. (or Dan for that matter) Now for the irrational thoughts. La Mina has been struggling for food even with Terry present in the tribe every day so whoever gets exiled, it would make sense that they would still struggle. They have had fire but if there is a storm big enough to flood Casaya then perhaps everything at LM is soaking wet as well and causes them to have a problem finding anything dry enough to get their fire rebuilt. So I think others are also possible as the exiled one this week. I'm thinking Dan at the moment since I honestly believe he could do alright on exile island. I know there is a spoiler floating around that Terry finds the HII but it doesn't say when. We also don't know whether anyone else finds it, so that is always a possibility. Now for the fun part. For whatever reason, Dan gets exiled. His tribe is at camp still struggling for food, and they are having trouble getting wet wood to light so they can rebuilt their fire after a storm. Meanwhile back on EI, Dan has found a food source, and also CORRECTLY used a piece of the broken flint to start a fire. (just because a flint breaks doesn't mean the pieces are useless....trust me) At some point he is lucky enough to actually locate the hidden idol, sticks it in his pocket and when it's time, heads back to camp with it safely tucked away. At the first opportunity I'm sure he would tell Terry about it, and after they lose immunity they start to strategize. I'm going to speculate that during their discussions of who to boot, someone brings up Dan's name and after a little talk about it Terry agrees, knowing full well that Dan has the idol. At tribal council they all vote for Dan, and after the votes are read, he pulls the idol from his pocket. His vote.....NICK. (in order to break up him and Austin) With 5 votes for Dan and only a single vote for Nick, Nick is kicked out of the game and survivor is changed forever. And in the process, Terry can claim that he kept his word to Austin since he voted for Dan, and it was never shown that Dan gave his word to either of them. Any chance of this?
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-21-06, 05:46 PM (EST)
|
|
41. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-06 AT 05:53 PM (EST)Knuckles, anything is possible but when something appears reasonable to us, you can bet they'll do the opposite! This time however, your idea would waste the idol by using it immediately. I think that if Terry wants Nick out, which I doubt, he could get Dan, Ruth and Sally (especially her since she is alone) to agree without trickery. I posted in another thread that is getting lost, that a way finding the idol could change the game is if the one finding it tells his alliance about it and plans to use it at merge if the numbers are 5-5. Get someone from the tribe to fake a defection to direct the vote to the idol bearer and then use the idol as tie-breaker! Now you still have to reach merge 5-5. I don't know what they choose to do so we'll need to wait and see!
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
02-21-06, 11:45 PM (EST)
|
|
42. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
>>>First, something happens to change the game forever but I can't imagine how just FINDING the immunity idol will do that. Seems it would have to be USED to qualify for that statement. hey, knuckles, well it's always possible that something extraordinary will happen but I have finally learned, after 5-6 years of watching CBS promos, that they say WHATEVER they want in order to get ratings. Apparently CBS is incapable of shame over any amount of exaggeration in their hype. So, while something unusual MAY happen I'm not going to base my spoiling this week on "the show has to equal the hype" because I know most likely, par for the course, it will be no more than finding the idol which puts a new kind of strategy into play that has never been done before. Is everyone on the spoiler boards already "over" the new twist and needing something more? Sure, but the average viewer hasn't read all the interviews with Jiffy explaining how the idol affects the strategizing. Promos are made for the consumption of average viewers and for the viewer who does not watch every episode, trying to get them to tune in. They're not made for US. The reason I feel pretty confident Terry gets exiled is that he is not in any of the camp vidcaps at La Mina, and he ought to be, since they are having a starvation crisis. Dan is in the caps, and every other LM is shown. Plus it's a done deal that Terry would be exiled if Casaya gets to choose, tit for tat, leader for leader. If La Mina got to choose, they wouldn't send their oldest guy, Dan, who also happens to be popular and respected and in the dominant alliance there. Although one could spec on who they would send, given that Terry isn't in any of the camp shots in the promo, I'm comfortable with believing he is exiled.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
|
02-22-06, 08:50 AM (EST)
|
|
43. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
I agree OFG, I dont think that this thing that "changes the game forever" is as big a deal as they're making it out to be. Every season they overhype the twists and different things in order to get ratings, and every time I'm disappointed and say "thats all?". So, based on how much they've hyped the exile island immunity idol, I think its just that someone finally finds it, and now that its in play, the game cant be played the way it always was before. They're hyping the effect of finding the idol, thats all I think. And it is on opposite the Olympics.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
SurvFanMaggs 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
|
02-22-06, 12:42 PM (EST)
|
|
46. "RE: SeeBS Misdirection S12 Ep 4" |
First of all, let me thank you all for your thought-provoking analyses of the game. I've been reading the boards here for over a year.
Now, my question.....could finding the hidden immunity idol on exile island, and then losing it before getting back to one's tribe( perhaps in the water or during a rainstorm) be a possible way the game could be changed forever? Just a thought from a newbie. (I know it's kinda lame, how cursed could this tribe be...losing both their spear and the idol)
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
