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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 08-13-05, 11:03 AM (EST) "Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Here's the link to Sucks, I was unable to get the link to work so I have to do it this way. Click on the link that says CBS news video. There are many videos to see of Jiffy and his assessments and the cast. Blatantly doubts if Lydia will make it, she showed up in jeans. Loves Rafe and considers him a good judge of character. Liked Judd right away, NYC doorman, had doubts about Morgan but the more he sees her the more he thinks his initial assessment may be wrong(must be there for a little bit at least!) Likes Gary, notes he's already been the leader of the team.... Check it out! http://p085.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessage?topicID=18569.topic   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment bdemoney 08-13-05 1  RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment tribephyl 08-13-05 2    RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Flowerpower 08-13-05 3        RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Whole Lotta Rosie 08-13-05 4            RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Flowerpower 08-14-05 5                RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Whole Lotta Rosie 08-14-05 6                    RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Flowerpower 08-15-05 7                        RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Whole Lotta Rosie 08-15-05 8                            RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Scarlett O Hara 08-16-05 9                RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment redbeard103152 08-16-05 10                    RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Georgianna 08-16-05 11    RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment Brownroach 08-17-05 12  RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment viruslqc 08-23-05 13  Observations Rasta 09-14-05 14

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bdemoney 745 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 08-13-05, 04:06 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Thanks for posting this Flower! Some interesting comments by Jeff. I always like reading his takes on the contestants. It'll be interesting to see if Morgan makes it far or if Lydia goes quickly.   Top

tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 08-13-05, 04:16 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Thanks FP! But I always have a hard time with videos so... I found this transcript at SurvivorFever. Ami seems to be a hard worker. Certainly has the job that has put her in social situations where she's had to deal with alot of different people. That could be a skill that really serves her well. Her rough edges are the things that could really get her in trouble out here. Judd is a guy we liked the second he walked in the door. He's this big jovial personality. A doorman from New York city. The big question with Judd is going to be, can he hack it. Brooke is one that I'm not sure which way she is going to go. She seems like she's very bright. Could be a nice quiet leader or Brooke could go the other way and sort of fade away. Blake appears on paper to be a guy's guy. Handsome guy, girls like him. That can work for you or against you. Note: No Brian Brianna, I think Brianna has a reason to be out here. It's not about adventure and it's not about money. It's about proving something to herself. I always love those stories. Brandon is from my part of the world, Kansas. He comes off as "hey, I just want to have fun". I don't know if I'm buying that. Danni is someone that I think people are probably going to get behind. She's in great shape. She's tall and she's got a competition background. Margaret is a nurse, a caregiver. She's also a mother, she's raised a family and dealt with those dynamics and she's athletic. Those are 3 big qualities and I think Margaret could do really well in this game. Cindy is a wild card in this sense...she works with animals, she's out in nature alot. It seems like the question for Cindy is going to be...what happens when the conflict comes. Gary Hogeboom is a favorite in this sense...he's played at the highest level. Played in the NFL and played in the quarterback spot, the lead spot, where you lead a team. And that is what Survivor is like. You're leading a tribe of people in big time moments. But the thing with Gary is, does anybody know who he is. Rafe is one of my favorites. Love this guy. Loved him when he walked in the room. Great guy, funny, got a lot of levels to him. From talking to him you can tell that he's a pretty good judge of character. He can sense out who somebody is like, who might be somebody wise to hook up with. Jim is a former fire captain. When you've been in a position of power it can work a couple of ways. In Jim's case I think it works in a way that power corrupts. Morgan is somebody who my impression of was...hmm, I don't know, a magician's assistant, a waitress or whatever she was, for the Survivor game, I'm not sure she's going to have it. The more I'm around Morgan the more I'm starting to think, this girl has alot more than I saw at first glance. Lydia, the fishmonger. I'm not going to lie. I don't think Lydia is going to last long. I think it's because she's not built for this game. This is so tough out here. It's sooo hot. The challenges are so physical. She's in jeans. For crying out loud. Jamie Newton, his fate rests with himself and his attitude. Jamie can be a lippy, cocky pain the #####. Or he can be a strong competitor and funny and respectful. Time will tell which Jamie comes out. I don't know why but transcripts always work better for me.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 08-13-05, 05:01 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Tribe, I can always count on you to have my back! You're always one step ahead! Thanks, fp   Top

Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 08-13-05, 06:27 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Thanks for the link FP; additionally, thirteen of the contestant profiles are up as of today. VS will eventually post a far more exceptional analysis of the initial contestant clips, but I though I would throw this out a bit early. This is a very physical group. Almost every cast member mentioned physical ability in his or her clips. Gary’s clip isn’t up yet, but obviously he also has some physical talents. This could definitely be a theme this year. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of natural leaders in this group. Most of the DAWs appeared eager to take follower roles, but several added the caveat they don’t want to be bossed around. Additionally most players either described their game play as cunning or nice. This could also be a season long theme. Lydia – She is here just for the adventure and much of her back-story was supplied in the clip. Combined with Jiffy’s comments, she doesn’t appear long for this game. Margaret – She comes across as a strong competitor. Her clip focused on her work ethic and game play. Despite her age, she could be around for a while. Brandon – Self described as fearless, independent, cunning and the wild one. Conquered his fear of heights. Appears to be more of a character than a player. I could definitely see him as a narrator and lasting to the merge. Jamie – A definite character and classic DAW. Defines himself as sexy, will bite someone, and doesn’t like posers. His goal is to finish in the top 8. Another narrator possibility and could easily finish in the 8-10 range. Judd – One of the contestants who don’t like to be told what to do, but otherwise appears to, at least, think he is a strong game player. Jiffy likes him and that is good enough for me. There are no current red flags that would make me think he doesn’t last a while. Danni – Self described tomboy and gun lover. She appears to be a bit feisty. I can’t see her making the Jury. Also picked up a segment in the Early Show promo, which is never a good sign. Blake – One of the tougher DAWs to read. Did not like the Gucci contingent, although I am not sure who is part of this group besides the obvious Briana. Realizes this is a battle of Chief and Indians and he is going to be and Indian. He also picked up a dreaded Early Show promo. Will either go far, or early. Jim – One of the leader types in the game. He realizes he can’t bring his A-type personality, but it will most likely come out. The ex-fireman knows that Tom won last time and is considering lying about his profession. My gut says he goes early in a conflict with one of the “I can’t follow you” types. Additionally his “too late to be famous” reeks of a more mature DAW. Rafe – Defined himself as the “Gay Mormon”. When you describe yourself as the Gay Mormon you must be a character and are unlikely to win. That said he should be around for a while. A lot of positive vibes from Jiffy. Amy – Self described as outgoing and assertive. She ended her segment screaming “Calm Down, Calm Down”. She also received a focus segment on the Early Show. I would not be surprised if she is the first or second boot. Morgan – Morgan appears to be a pretty soft contestant. Self proclaimed as trying to figure it out and tolerant. Jiffy’s reevaluation of her leads me to believe she may last a while more than we expect her to. She could be a Julie/Jenn type and last a while, purely as a pawn. Cindy – She comes across as very nice but is self-described as bit naïve. Nothing makes me think she is an early boot but I can’t see her winning either. Brooke - She appears to be a game player. Self described as smart, competitive, strategic, etc. Her only personal comment was that she was Christian, which may or not may not be important. Gary – No video, but he did receive a focus segment on the Early Show. He is very concerned that his football career will hinder his game play. However he is one of the few natural leaders this year. Brianna – No video, but she did receive a focus segment on the Early Show regarding skin cream. Could be the potential foil for Blake. I can see one of these two making the jury, but definitely not both. Brian – No video, but he did receive a focus segment on the Early Show. Doesn’t what the other contestants to know he went to Columbia. Based on very limited information could be a potential villain. Just to get people talking and based on this very limited, and I repeat very limited, info I am going to go out on a limb and say: Early Boots Lydia Danni Amy Brianna Jim Gary Merge/Early Jury Brandon Jamie Rafe Cindy Final 6 Margaret Judd Brian Brooke Blake Morgan Blake, Gary, Cindy, Brian, Jim could either fair far better or worse and I do think Rafe has a shot at final six. Regardless, this will give me the opportunity of being wrong 11 seasons in a row.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 08-14-05, 04:06 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" LAST EDITED ON 08-14-05 AT 04:08 PM (EST) Hi Rosie! Great to see you here and ready to get started! Yes, soon hopefully Veruca will be here and then we can really let the games begin! You seem pretty insightful yourself! I agree with alot that you have noted. Lydia: Totally agree with your assessment, she has raised her kids and now it's time for something for her....I don't think she'll be long for the tribe. She may be a worker but I don't think she'll deliver too much in the challenges... Margaret: You are right on. She looks very fit, she's probably a woman with lots of grit and assertion, yet brings a maternal vantage point as well. I think she'll be lasting a long time. Looks like she'll be a real contributer. Brandon: So far, I don't know about him. Seems like the type that talks himself up....doesn't look too strong, nor too weak. If he can be diplomatic and hard working he could last... Jamie: A serious DAW....sexy Jamie??? I think Jiffy has him pegged. He could be a serious asset to the merge and then he may get the axe. All depends on his attitude and mouth. Judd: Yes, I am eager to get to know this one. Appears very strong thus a great asset in the challenges, and I liked Jiffy's take on him too. I bet he's one of the more colorful characters of the season, could just turn out to be the Rob Mariano of the group... Danni: She seems very focused and it's as if she is out to prove that she is indeed a "tomboy" and capable of doing what the guys can. Seems very competitive, as Steph was in her season. I'm looking forward to what she has to say as well. Blake: I think he'll turn out to be a player, definately an alpha DAW! Will be fun to watch him in action... Jim: Ditto your thoughts as well! Rafe: Yes, I think Rafe will be around to the end. His body language early on is the most rationale and approachable to me. He seems like he's got a good head on his shoulders...it will be interesting to seem if he gravitates to some more than others...or will they all gravitate to him? Ami: She's interesting. Seems to have alot of experience with adverse people and situations, BUT does seem to know what it is about herself that could get her into trouble. If she can pull her weight in the challenges, not be too bossy and opinionated she could be a ringer. Morgan: Definately will be a follower/pawn. Can she pull her weight in the challenges? I have a lot of doubts about her...but if she hooks up with a winner, you never know. Cindy: Out of the entire lot she seems to have the most negative body language....that gives me pause. Seems to have a chip on her shoulder, and I have'nt even seen her yet, maybe she has something to prove. She looks just like an angry Lindsey Lohan to me...I have doubts about her, but could get far if she is a serious competitor in the challenges... Brooke: Yes, she's a smart cookie, but looks pretty soft around the edges. She could be a surprise. If she's too Christian to lie and backstab, she hasn't got a prayer. Let's see! Gary: Will be a great competitor, if he sets out as the oldest and wisest of his team, that will spell trouble. I would love to see him last a while, I think he'll make it past early game. Brianna: Sure am betting she's one of the "Gucci Girls". Don't know her yet, but I'll bet she's got a biotchy side. Don't think she'll be long for the game. She seems quite "forceful". Brian: No chance. He's fixated on him being an Ivy Leaguer...so what...doesn't look too physical, and seems a bit too sensitive to me. Certainly more of a follower in the group. I am convinced that BJ and Steph will be players, Steph on Yaxha, and BJ on Nakum. I would think that they may get a "can't be voted out" card for the first TC. As the experienced players, the others in their tribe will look to their opinions and advice. I think they will both sway the group to stay strong and focused on WINNING the challenges, therefore swaying the group to vote out the weakest links. So, whoever performs the worst in the challenges I think will have the biggest targets on their backs. Some of these cute little gucci girls may not be long for the game! Can't wait for it to start!   Top

Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 08-14-05, 06:22 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" FP, nice analysis as always. BTW I really like your PGE on TAR. Interesting comments regarding Steph and BJ. There are definitely a couple of others DAWs I could see going pre-jury, and the inclusion of the “veteran players” could push another two out earlier. Last year many of the contestants focused their strategy on “flirting”, this year it appears to be more physical. This could play well for Steph and BJ. I went back to last year just to see what I could of learned if I paid more attention. Seven of the contestants had clips in which they stated some form of strategy. They were. Ian Caryn Ib Jenn Katie Kim Tom Within this seven we have our entire final five. Coincidence, who knows? I could have read more into their comments than I should. It is easy in hindsight. Who are this year’s game players? Interesting comment regarding Morgan. This year Jiffy’s comments “Morgan is somebody who my impression of was...hmm, I don't know, a magician's assistant, a waitress or whatever she was, for the Survivor game, I'm not sure she's going to have it. The more I'm around Morgan the more I'm starting to think, this girl has a lot more than I saw at first glance.” Last year: Jenn the nanny. This is going to be interesting to watch her – because if you look at her and her nails with the French manicure and her neatly tucked in hair, you’re thinking “You’ll never make it out there. You’re going to fade on Day 1.” But I think there might be a little more to her than people are going to see at first glance. . This of course may mean nothing or something. For some reason I think this season may be pretty interesting. Can't wait to get started.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 08-15-05, 09:47 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" LAST EDITED ON 08-15-05 AT 01:54 PM (EST) Wow Rosie, you may have stumbled onto something! Using preshow interviews could turn out to be a viable spoiling tool. With 5/7 odds of making the very end game, maybe we should really note who in the preseason discusses strategy. Were the seven that discussed strategy from the preseason for Palau all from the Early Show interviews or all of the preseason interviews including the Early Show and Entertainment Tonight and others? Maybe one could search the archives to note if there are any patterns or trends based on preshow interviews! Any volunteers? Ha! Thanks, fp ETA: Reviewing the Early Show and Entertainment Tonight promotions, judging from the VO the following had statements referring to their strategies: 1. Brian: I am not revealing that I'm an Ivy League Student, and I have no tolerance for ignorance and stupidity 2. Blake: I'll exploit a relationship to the best of my abilities to win. I'll play a follower in the beginning and be a good provider. 3. Danni: I'm not going to be a girly girl, they call me "Redneck Barbie"! 4. Ami: They won't be able to deceive me, I'll be very positive, my motto will be "tough it up and suck it up". 5. Gary: I won't let anyone know what my last name is and that I played in the NFL. 6. Judd: As a New Yorker I'll bring the ruthlessness and cunningness to the game. These were the people that were quoted in the promos. Brianna was quoted as well but all she said was that she sells 280.00$ face cream and do you need it and that's what she does for a living....did'nt take that as revealing a strategy...And Brandon had a voice in the Entertainment Tonight Clip but stated that everyone's first impression of him would be that he's some redneck/hick(implying that he's not??), so I don't think that qualifies as a revealing strategy either. So, 6 Survivors were featured in the Early Show Promo: Brian, Ami, Blake, Danni, Brianna, and Gary; while 6 were featured in the Entertainment Tonight segment: Judd, Ami, Brandon, Brian, Gary, and Danni. One thing is very certain to me. Just as Jolanda was one of the 7 that revealed strategy in the early promotions for Palau, one of these eight will indeed be our first boot! So the first boot is one of: Brian, Ami, Blake, Danni, Brianna, Gary, Judd or Brandon. So according to the Rosie Theory one of these intitial people will be our first boot, while the large majority of the others could be "end game" players! ...I like it!   Top

Whole Lotta Rosie 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 08-15-05, 09:52 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" FP, etal. Here is link to KB's modified video transcripts for last year with the comments selected for the pre-show confessionals/promos in bold. Tom and Ian have highlighted quotes that deal with strategy, the others do not. The thread is in VS thread #1 for last season. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5676.shtml#22 (Sorry I don't know how paste links so you will just have to copy and paste) In contrast the character's from last year. Coby, Angie, Janu and to an extent, in as far as Stephanie and Bobby Jon could be defined as characters, are highlighted. Besides the strategy discussion's from the top 5, I also went backed and reviewed the first three eliminiated. Jolanda, Jon, and Wanda, have incredibly fleshed out confessionals. This is Jolanda I have a lot of athletic accomplishments, a lot of academic accomplishments, a lot of civic accomplishments, and I just think it's a unique combination. I was the oldest of the five siblings and I was responsible for caring for them, and I was looking for anything to keep me out of the house. And athletics was one of the ways I could stay out of the house longer. Turns out I was very good. I ended up winning (insert lots of awards). As a criminal defense lawyer, when I pick juries I've gotta figure out how to read people, especially when I cross examine witnesses and figure out their weaknesses are and exploit them and make sure the whole world sees it. My dad blew his brains out, I was in the room with him and that was one of the many bad things that happened to me. I was a year and a month, two of my dad's brothers committed suicide, so my grandmother has lost three kids to suicide. My 19 year old brother was murdered, shot 5 times, twice in the head, I got a brother in prison now, I've got a cousin in prison for murder, I got an aunt who was murdered, I've been shot at, I could continue for a good 20-30 minutes so the journey has been daunting. This is alot of info about a person and her only strategy is what she's gotta do, versus what she will do. In constrast, Caryn, I think that being an attorney will help me in several ways. First of all because I have a keen insight into people which I have learned from being an attorney selecting jurors to be on my jury when I try a case, so the keen insight is one thing and also, the ability to persuade is another aspect of being an attorney. I am going to go far in this game, that I can assure you. Notice the difference between will and gotta. This crops up alot in these pre-show interviews. VS hit this point last year and was correct. I tried to track down the pre-show confessionals from 2 seasons ago and I could not find the transcripts. The confessionals are still on the CBS web site, but in order to view them you first have to few their audition tape. These are incredibly long and annoying. I managed to sit through Chris and Eliza and both were definitely focused on strategy, but as far as I know all the DAWs could of talked about strategy. I missed the Redneck Barbie thing. That screams character. Danni could be around for a while longer than I anticipated You really have to watch the Amy clip to understand how over the top she really is.   Top

Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 08-16-05, 06:53 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Hmmm .... I'm putting my money on Brianna as first boot based upon preshow statements. Her "I can talk anyone into buying anything speech sounds too much like Jolanda's "I'm a success at everything speech..." ... on second thought though, isn't that what Ian said too ..."I can talk a fat man out of a bag of doritos..."   Top

redbeard103152 466 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 08-16-05, 12:05 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Flower Power. I enjoyed reading your accessments of the current group of Survivors. Again I respect your insight into the cast based on the early information that we now have. I find myself in agreement with you which happens often. I am now going out on a very long limb to make my predictions for the Final 2 based on this early information. The final two will be Rafe and Margaret. I have also brought along my trusty saw to cut off this limb later if need be.RedBeard   Top

Georgianna 514 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 08-16-05, 11:30 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Well, if you have to do any tree-trimming at all, Redbeard, I think you'll have a short fall: Return to Palau seems to be the sub-subtitle for this season (although brushing up on Borneo might not be a bad idea). But back-to-back F2s pitting a (Male) Carpricorn against a (Female) Gemini may be stretching dè-jâ vu a bit thin. And speaking of that "all over again" feeling ... Watching the Tom(Capricorn) and Ian(Leo-Virgo) relationship revisited (with an age-reversal twist) by Rafe(Capricorn) and Gary (Leo-Virgo) may send a few little shivers up our spines too.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 08-17-05, 12:32 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" Lydia, the fishmonger. I'm not going to lie. I don't think Lydia is going to last long. I think it's because she's not built for this game. This is so tough out here. It's sooo hot. The challenges are so physical. She's in jeans. For crying out loud. Lydia may not last too long, but I think she can safely be eliminated as the first boot. Although he is speaking before the game started and didn't know what was going to happen, I am assuming Probst's comments were edited down from longer spiels about each contestant, and I think they would have taken care not to use a soundbyte like this for the first boot. Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.   Top

viruslqc 51 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 08-23-05, 01:52 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Jeff Probst Cast Assessment" I'm not going to analyze each player, I'm too tired to think that much. However, I want to make a comment regarding Rafe. He has put himself out there as a label. By playing the gay card, he either sets himself apart, or endears himself to the tribe. He does promise to be a character, so maybe what we'll see is some Weird mix of three Borneo Survivors (Richard, Dirk, and Greg---a mix of gay, religion, and character). Should be interesting. By further bringing religion together with his choice of lifestyle is rare. Religion often doesn't take a favorable view of his orientation, and I'm not saying he's a bad person, I'm just saying that it's not common for someone so religious to be so open about being gay. He will try to use this to his advantage and to both be like Richard Hatch and be opposite of Richard Hatch...I'll explain: Richard believes he was able to play the game well because of being gay. Because he grew up knowing he was gay, he had to become comfortable with himself. According to him, being secure with himself enabled him to win the game. This is how the two will be similar. Here's how they will differ: According to Richard, people get to know him first, and over time, they find out he's gay. He's not excessively effeminate, so that method works. At the point most people find out he's gay, they already know him. Rafe has put it right out there in the open for all to see. He has come right out (no pun intended) and said that he thinks that his being gay will get him farther because he will be underestimated. So, if he told his fellow survivors before the game what he's told us point blank here, he has opened himself to prejudice. Whether the other survivors would be prejudiced, we'll have to wait and see. I'd love to hear what people have to say about this. I'm going on the assumption that he told his tribe mates what he's told us, and that he did it up front, because he seems like a very open person. None of what I said should be taken offensively by the way. Rafe should do well if: 1. He contributes well to the tribe 2. He doesn't spend half his day alone with a Bible. 3. He doesn't spend the other half of the day on a Coconut Phone. In other words, if he doesn't behave like Dirk and Greg he should do just fine.   Top

Rasta 210 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 09-14-05, 11:21 AM (EST) 14. "Observations" This tribal divisions seem very strange to me. A few observations... First, the Nakum women seem much, much stronger than the Yaxha women. The 3 most athletic women appear to be Margaret, Danni and Cindy (all Nakum). The 3 weakest appear to be Morgan, Brianna and Lydia (all Yaxha). Second, there are 7 contestants under the age of 25. Five of them are in Yaxha. Hmmm. Third, what's up with Rafe and Brian? They're both 22, both from Ivy league schools, both self-proclaimed Survivor experts, and both gay. And here's the clincher: they both like Doritos! Back to the gay thing. We know Rafe is gay. Brian might be (based on his video interview and interests anyway). This could be a powerful partnership, and should be fun to watch. Can't wait for Thursday!   Top

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