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"EP1 TC Boot Speculation"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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02-14-05, 02:16 AM (EST)
 
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"EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-14-05 AT 07:21 PM (EST)
With only four days left, it's time to make our best guess at the tribal breakdown and move on to deciding who gets voted out at TC. Based on analysis here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5675&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5684&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0
Let's assume that Wanda and Jeff are the two who don't make it to the first challenge...
Here's where I think we stand right now. Those listed in bold are considered safe from the “Pick ‘em”, but still unconfirmed on either tribe. This is a Pick’em scenario that maintains gender balance without contradicting and of the “confirmed” spoilers… Ulong Tribe: 9 (5 women…4 men)
1.Jolanda (Captain – first picker for Ulong) (Bianca/CMC)
3.Jonathan (CMC) (weight loss?)
5.Kimberley (buff vidcap)
7.Bobby Jon (buff vidcap)
9.Stephenie (vidcap)
11.Gregg (???)
13.Angie (buff vidcap)
15.James (CMC?)
17.Ashlee (vidcap)
Korror Tribe: 9 (5 men…4 women)
2.Ian (Captain - first picker for Korror) (vidcap)
4.Jennifer ( Animation…not Ulong?)(Vidcap emotional with Caryn)
6.Ibrahem (CMC) ( Weight Loss) (Flirting with Jenn-Korror?)
8.Katie (weight loss?)(???)by process of elimination.
10.Tom (CMC)
12Caryn (TDT vidcap)
14.Coby (vidcap)
16.Janu (buff vidcap)
18.Willard (CMC?)
Eliminated: 2
Jeff (MSN)
Wanda (eliminated – VG)
While we might still want to make the arguement that Gregg is on Korror instead of Ibrehem, or that Jennifer should be on Ulong instead of Gregg, it doesn't really matter. Weight loss spoilers make them safe, regardless of the tribe they end up on, and Jennifer doesn't appear to fit the EP1 boot profile...
So, what really matters is which tribe loses the IC and goes to TC...
It was rumored that "most of the older contestants ended up on the same tribe"...this appears to be Korror. The physical nature of the first Challenge appears to favor the younger, stronger Ulong tribe.     
These vidcaps show members speculated to be on Korror as unhappy or concerned...Korror in defeat?
    
The majority of the recent promos show contestants, who we have concluded are members of Korror, in confessionals...is Korror preparing for TC?
If we conclude that Korror is going to TC, who are the EP1 boot candidates? Korror Tribe: 9 Ian (Captain - first picker for Korror) (vidcap)
Jennifer ( Animation…not Ulong?)(Vidcap emotional with Caryn)(???)
Ibrahem (CMC) ( Weight Loss) (Flirting with Jenn-Korror?)
Janu (buff vidcap)
Coby (vidcap)
Katie (weight loss?)
Tom (CMC)
Caryn (TDT vidcap)
Willard (CMC?)
From this group...Janu, Caryn, and Willard all seem to fit the traditional early boot profile, supported by a lack of evidence to indicate longevity.
Edited to add: Corvis has a source claiming Willard is safe in EP1, I luv Tijuana at SSucks has a source that confirms her claims that Caryn is safe in EP1...that puts Janu at the top of the EP1 boot list. It's time to start pulling our speculation together to predict who gets voted out at the first TC... 
Krautboy
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 04:13 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-14-05 AT 05:00 AM (EST)These vidcaps show members speculated to be on Korror as unhappy or concerned...Korror in defeat? From this group...Janu, Caryn, and Willard all seem to fit the traditional early boot profile, supported by a lack of evidence to indicate longevity. I completely agree. Yet, I also remember, fairly recently, a mention of the Koror tribe "gutting themselves" by booting the stronger players early.
I realize that we were postulating on events in accordance with some info from DAN's source, but I just can't gel the two ideas together and come up with Willard/Caryn/Janu as a physically threatening choice for boot. If indeed Koror cuts the "5% bodyfat crowd" at every opportunity, then Ibrehem/Gregg, Jennifer or Ian seem to rise to the top of the boot list. Maybe even Tom.
Truthfully, I'd really "Like it" if Caryn or Janu get booted. I just don't want to make my choices based on personal feelings.
As a deterrent I think back to Brook's boot in Vanuatu. Nothing seemed to point to him as the first boot other then, at a later time, someone said he was.
As far as vidcaps and traditional "spoiling" are concerned Chris seemed to be the logical choice because of his challenge failure and his fitting the "traditional first boot" standard. But, things had a way of changing.
Just keeping the options open.
 Sn'DCS©MMIV
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 04:36 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
Tribe: Here's the quote to which I think you're referring:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5675&forum=DCForumID2&omm=84 "...In those first few days, will they keep strong people or try to gut their own tribe? The message they find out is if you want to vote out your strong simply because they are strong you'll be back at Tribal Council more often than not and sooner or later it will be your turn." This quote may be satisfied by the Korror tribe selecting Willard over Jeff, which in turn may cause them to lose the first challenge and send them to TC, starting a downward spiral for the Korror tribe...
Krautboy
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 05:04 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
So after not picking Jeff, Koror loses the first Immunity challenge, but learn from their experience and boot Willard first?I'd hope they learn that lesson that early, but I highly doubt it. Sn'DCS©MMIV
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 09:02 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
I agree KB, it is high time that we start speculating on the first traditionally booted via TC survivor. I just wanted to remind everyone though that although we are shown many worried confessionals of peeps that we speculate to be on Koror, this is in no way proof positive for me that Koror indeed loses the first challenge. EPMB only shows us what he chooses to show us, and these confessional shots and worried looks are what he's choosing to show us. We call this misdirection. These could all be pre-challenge, post-elimination shots, and they are confessionals reacting to the unfairness of it all, after the supposed eliminatees "blow-up" over it. Afterall, this is a whole different Survivor.Although I agree that it appears there are more peeps speculated to be on Koror that seem to be featured, I am still holding out for more vidcaps. The Early Show will be having a special segment on Survivor Palau this week sometime, probably on Thursday AM, and I am praying for a bigger piece of the puzzle. FWIW,at this point I'd say that Willard, Janu, Ashlee, Katie and Caryn could all be in danger.  
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 09:06 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-14-05 AT 09:09 AM (EST)While we are at it, what do we think IS the first challenge. Traditionally the first survivor challenge has involved fire in some way, whether lighting woks along the way, or lighting something at the very end. We have several various caps but are they all of the same challenge? (Many of the vidcaps use dream team doubles, also caps are not in any order and may not be parts of a challenge.) 
ETA: Plus we have the Janu cap of her and (gregg?) in a crwal under climb over type challenge. And the possible answer to who is behind Bobby Jon in the animated gif? 
Alot of the shots that we have in the last promo show emotions and tears from several of the players. When do you think that Jeff tells them that the last 2 are eliminated, before the pick em, or after? If Kim and Ibrehem are still waiting to be picked when Bobby John and Angie (who looks upset) start to walk in front of them, why would Angie be upset now if she just got picked? Relief? And if relieved then that would mean that she knows the last to be picked would be going. We are missing something key here folks...Just what is it? 
S10 PTB Sign up HERE
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-14-05, 10:03 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
I think that once a players is touched - they have to give their back-pack to another player and we start all over until one team has no one left. That is the only explanation for the pics of only 2-3 guys running with several back-packs.And that makes sense because in challenges past it was part strategy as to who you want to force to carry more of the weight. So if we eliminate that as being challenge in episode 2, what is the challenge in episode 1? We have clips of Janu in the obstacle course, we had some pictures of tires and a car under a tarp (is it a fake?), the picture of Jolanda and Kim? running, we have pictures of Gregg in the water with the barrels, and we have the Bobby John getting splashed pic.
S10 PTB Sign up HERE
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-14-05, 11:12 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
There are a few things that stand out on the game that snewsers does that fit into this discussion.Will Wanda leave the game before the first challenge? Worth 20 points (a lot for his game) Then latter. Not counting Wanda, which other player will leave the game before the first challenge. (Also worth 20 pts) Will the Immunity Challenge involve Fire - why ask this? He also has three tribes listed for some questions 
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-14-05, 11:29 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: EP1 TC Boot Speculation" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-14-05 AT 01:46 PM (EST)KB,
I'm not so sure those stressed reaction shots are challenge-related. I think they're all from the pick 'em. Additionally, the confessional shots seem to be pre-selection because none of the confessors are wearing a buff. That last one, of Janu, is pre-game, as she's wearing completely different clothing...and a hat. In your first row of caps, the shots of Ian, Katie, and Janu are all, I believe, from the pick 'em. I'm not sure about the Caryn cap. However, the looks are all ones of disbelief, not the typical "we lost" frustration shots we've grown accustomed to in determining IC losers. Janu's, in particular, can be ruled out as challenge-related, because we have a vidcap of her competing with her buff on her head. It's absent from the one you've chosen. Initially, I was thinking along the lines of a Koror loss, but that was almost exclusively because of the shot of Coby with the Koror flag in the background. That shot, to me, looks like dejection, but it's not conclusive so much as suggestive. If Koror goes, here's my thoughts on who's on the hot seat and who's not: Ian - He's been too hyped by Jeff to be an E1 boot candidate, imo. Signs point to him lasting a while. Jeff alluded to his downfall having to do with poor judgment. This sounds like he lasts for a bit. Coby - Early spoilers had the "gay Texan" going far, even before he was named. I don't think it's him. Ibrehem - While he fits the mold of the "gut the tribe" quote, we have weight loss spoilers on him. I doubt he's our E1 boot. Jennifer - She doesn't fit the typical E1 boot pattern. They are generally conspirators on the wrong side of the numbers or folks who just don't bond with the tribe. If she completely falls apart due to the elements, I could see it. But even Tanya and Jessie got 6 days. I don't think she will fall apart, and I don't think she makes a good E1 candidate. Katie - We have sketchy (at best) weight loss info on her. She is a total wildcard for me. Some days I think she'll be gone early, others I think she'll make it to the end. She's a possible boot candidate for E1, but not a likely one, imo. Tom - Another guy we have bad intel on. All the shark catching and attempts to bond with the younger men stuff turned out to be a hoax. So, we're back to square 1 with him. I still think he's sort of an odd man out with this bunch. I think he would've much rather been with Stephenie and Kim on Ulong, but more importantly, it appears as if he was one of few who bonded with Jeff and/or Wanda. We have caps of him with both. We have Jeff saying he wants to be a fireman. And, we have a cap of Tom in the foreground of the picture with Coby crying. He looks pissed. Not sad...pissed. It could be that he thinks he's screwed with this bunch, and a couple people he bonded with just got sent packing. I consider him at risk for E1. Caryn and Willard - Both of them fit the E1 boot profile, but not Jeff's quote. I don't want to get too hung up on the quote, but it's about all we have at this point. However, Jeff did also have something to say about booting the "weaker" players having an impact on the tribe. If Koror goes to TC, I consider them both to be at risk. Janu - Her face has been everywhere in the promos, but we haven't really heard much about her from Probst/MB. We have no intel on her at all. Based on her pre-game interview, I felt she'd be an early boot. She is certainly at risk in E1.  Fester
ETA: Janu spec, because I forgot about her. Doesn't bode well that I've already forgotten about her, does it?
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 11:47 AM (EST)
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15. "Ulong boot probability" |
Just for the sake of completeness, here are my thoughts if Ulong loses the E1 IC:Stephenie - Weight loss spoilers and E1 boot profiles rule her out, imo. She's safe. Kim - She doesn't fit the E1 boot profile. There are reports of her coming home with very damaged hair. I think she's safe for a while. Bobby Jon and Ashlee - I'm of the belief that the E2 title refers to them. They both talked up the flirting aspect and the Christian aspect. They make a perfect match for the "Love Is In The Air" title. They're both safe at least through E1. Gregg - Weight loss spoilers rule him out, as well. He also doesn't fit the profile. James - Too much pre-game hype for him to go this early. His mouth will eventually do him in, but not this early, I don't think. Angie - Hyped by both MB and Jeff. Not a good E1 candidate, from that perspective. I'm anticipating a "Shii-devil" story arc from her. Jolanda - She fits the Jeff quote, and is opinionated. Those two things might do her in, but I'm not sure they will this early. She does kind of stick out from this group, though. I consider her at risk in E1 if Ulong goes to TC. Jonathan - He has the forboding quote and fits Jeff's quote. I don't know that he has any natural allies in this tribe. I think he's most at risk if Ulong goes to TC. Fester
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TDT 13 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 06:45 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Tribes now complete!" |
Don't you think at least one of those people would be wearing a buff if they had them?
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 01:55 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Bianca confirms Katie on Korror" |
I know what you're saying makes sense, and I have no hard evidence, but I still don't buy the gender balance. I think Gregg is on Koror and Jennifer is on Ulong. But I got nothing more than my Lexgut as proof.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-14-05, 02:20 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: It's not Willard" |
I'm starting to not like anyone from Koror as an Ep 1 boot (or anyone that we think might be on Koror). The more likely boots from Koror seem to be getting fairly heavy coverage in the promo shots. I tend to think the bootee is going to be someone who's not too prominent in the promos. Like Jolanda, maybe. Anyway...Off topic for this thread, but, Corvis, I was reading your skeptical remarks on the Ibe weight loss info on Sucks. It was ILT who posted the first spoiler on Sucks: Ibrehem-"When I first saw him, he looked like he lost a lot of muscle, I mean a lot. I'm not sure how much muscle compares to fat, so I'm not exactly sure how much, but my best guess would be that he lost about 15 pounds, but like I said, I'm not sure how muscle and fat compares, and he definetly looked like he lost a lot of definition in his arms, chest and stomach." (anonymous source) All I can say is that the source is someone who lives very close to Ibrehem, and is friendly with him. Then, same person later: "Well I asked around at the gym and I found someone that knows him. He said that he noticed the muscle loss as well. His guess was also 18-20 lbs, he might be a better judge- since he's a muscle head too."(LER) Freudianslip started posting in our Survivor Ibrehem thread shortly afterward. I don't know if I trust freudianslip, not that she said much anyway. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 02:32 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: freudianslip" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-14-05 AT 02:34 PM (EST)Post by TDT: ************************
truedorktimes
I am Seraphaem.
Posts: 3
(2/10/05 8:27 pm)
Reply
ezSupporter Re: Two Little Girls
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I think your freudianslip is showing, Sera.
************************ Here:
http://p072.ezboard.com/fsurvivorchatterfrm153.showMessageRange?topicID=175.topic&start=81&stop=100 ETA: FWIW I'm with you BR, I'm not looking at Koror either for the bootee. 
Close but no car...
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 05:13 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: freudianslip" |
Thanks, BR and forehead.
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 05:20 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: It's not Willard" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-14-05 AT 10:36 PM (EST)I have learned from a reliable source that Willard is safe in Ep 1 A reliable source? That does not really tell us much Corvis. Why should we believe you? What is your source? You must back up your statements with some kind of proof ... or don't post them. Also, pardon me for my ignorance, however, can anyone explain to me what the Ep 1 Boot profile is? Thanks. 
ETA: And with that ... Scarlett inserts foot in mouth
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 11:21 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: It's not Willard" |
No harm done, Scarlett. Smiles all around. 
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 06:04 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: It's not Willard" |
Scarlett:Corvis is a a long time veteran spoiler, but one who has only recently come over to SBlows to share his ideas here. FWIW, I trust Corvis and can assure you that he is a very responsible spoiler who would not post this information if he did not trust his source. I think we should respect his decision to protect his source, just as TDT, Snewser, VG protect theirs. As for the EP1 Boot Profile...it's nothing more than a composite picture of the "typical" EP1 bootee, assembled as kind of an average of what we've seen over the years...
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-14-05, 04:45 PM (EST)
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23. "Caryn confirmed on Korror." |
TDT has posted this vidcap and pointed out that a brown Korror buff can be seen behind her. This confirms the speculation that places her on Korror and thereby also places Jennifer on Korror by way of the emotional elimination shot wof her crying as she's consoled by Caryn.I've updated the original post to reflect this confirmation and have also flipped Caryn and Janu in the picking sequence. Toddnick over at SSucks has a similar Pick'em scenario in which Janu makes the last pick for Korror and picks Willard over Jeff. By "gutting their tribe" of strength with her selection Janu gets the blame for Korror's defeat and is voted out at TC... I had originally had the same thoughts about Caryn, but ILT at SSucks seems to have confirmed her information that Caryn survives EP1, so the same scenario works just as well with Janu. I've climbed aboard the Janu wagon with Corvis and Toddnick...still hoping for more vidcaps of the IC to confirm a Korror defeat.
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-15-05, 11:40 AM (EST)
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49. "Jolanda" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-15-05 AT 12:58 PM (EST)Unless we get more evidence between now and Thursday, I am going with Jolanda as the first boot. Here's why: 1) She's hardly shown in the promo caps. Traditionally the first boot is not overtly highlighted in the promos. 2) She's never shown in a context that looks like she's particularly bonding with anyone. Conversely, we have numerous shots of the other people on Ulong hanging out together in different combinations. 3) She's also never shown saying anything like, "this hasn't happened before", "everyone is freaking out", "it's gonna get worse", etc. I think all the people who make those remarks are safe. Ditto anyone who is crying or looks emotional or anxious (she doesn't fit into this category either). 4) From a social standpoint again -- no one will have picked her to be on the tribe, whereas everyone else (except the last person) will have picked someone to their liking. If she hadn't won immunity, it's conceivable she might not have been picked if she didn't bond with anyone on Ulong. 5) She does win "immunity" at the get-go, making her look like a formidable player and a threat. If you want to read into Jeff Probst's quote that one (or several) strong people get booted early -- some of which I'm taking with a grain of salt, but... -- she is a prime candidate to fit that bill on Ulong. 6) As far as I know, there is nothing spoilerish out there that suggests how well or how badly she did in the game. Edited because I forgot:
7) The age factor -- at 39, she is significantly older than everyone else we expect to be on Ulong. James at 32 is the next oldest but he's already seen chumming it up with Ashlee, Angie and Stephanie. Of course this all depends on Ulong losing the first IC and Jolanda and Ian not being immune for the first TC. If we get evidence to the contrary between now and Thursday, well, then it's back to square one...
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 11:46 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: Jolanda" |
There is a weight loss spoiler for her. And the fact that she took time off after the game which some have suggested means she went far and needed time to recover. Here's the information from Sucks: Jolanda-Took ten days off of work to "recover", could she have lost a bit of extra weight? (Source: Amanda Davis) "I saw Jolanda when she got back. I didn't have anything to compare it to before because I didn't see her very much, but she was definitely thinner than in the Early Show footage." (Source: I Am Queue) As weight loss spoilers are not entirely reliable, I am not convinced that either of these spoilers mean she wasn't booted first, but I thought I'd throw 'em out there. Jolanda is a good pick if Ulong goes to TC.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 01:10 PM (EST)
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53. "Promo Visibility Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-15-05 AT 01:14 PM (EST)I thought it might be useful for E1--and maybe beyond--to take a closer look at how visible the players have been in CBS's promo campaign for S10. To that end, I looked at the vidcaps and transcripts for 11 CBS created promos (thanks SFever and TDT!), including The Early Show introductions and the Web Promo which got some TV play as well. I counted how many times a Survivor appears as an individual and how many quotes they had in each promo. (Some Survivors had multiple appearances in one promo. Each instance is counted separately. To count as a separate instance, there had to be footage of someone other than that Survivor in between appearances. For example, if they were introducing a Survivor with multiple consecutive images, that counted as one. If the Survivor had a quote at the beginning and a visual at the end, that counted as 2 appearances.) Here are the results. I’ve included whether they were named in one of the 9 TV promos, whether they were featured on TES, how many times they appeared (since they all appeared on TES, only those with quotes got credit for a TES appearance, since that distinguished them from the rest), and how many appearances had quotes attached to them. Prominent Bobby Jon (named, TES) 12 appearances, 4 quotes Janu (named) 11 appearances, 2 quotes Stephenie (named) 10 appearances, 9 quotes Coby (named) 9 appearances, 4 quotes Noticeable Ian (named) 8 appearances, 3 quotes James (named, TES) 7 appearances, 3 quotes Caryn (named) 6 appearances, 2 quotes Gregg (named) 5 appearances, 3 quotes Katie (named) 7 appearances, 3 quotes Seen more than heard Kim (NOT named, TES) 9 appearances, 3 quotes (2 are her saying “Yes!”, though) Jennifer (NOT named, TES) 6 appearances, 1 quote Ibrehem (named) 5 appearances, 2 quotes Tom (named, TES) 4 appearances, 2 quotes Seen and Heard…just not very often Angie (named, TES) 3 appearances, 2 quotes Willard (named, TES) 3 appearances, 2 quotes Jonathan (named, TES) 2 appearances, 2 quotes Jolanda (named) 2 appearances, 1 quote UTR Ashlee (NOT named) 1 appearance, 0 quotes Off the map Wanda (NOT named, TES) 1 appearance, 1 quote (Only appears on TES) Jeff (NOT named) 0 appearances, 0 quotes 2 people stick out for me...Bobby Jon and Ashlee. Why the focus on Bobby and, conversely, why is Ashlee almost completely absent from these promos, yet she got twice as much time in the introductory interview video on the website?
Fester
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-15-05, 02:00 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: Promo Visibility Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-15-05 AT 02:15 PM (EST)As much as I'd like to see Jonathan go - I think that quote is put there as a misdirection. He may however go episode 2/3/4. I think we will see a lot of hints that it could be him that goes and then someone else will. I think Jonathan will be the one Seebs is pushing to the general public to think is going just like they did with Chris. With that said - I also think that Joland is in the middle of the challenge with the necklace on - which makes me think they havent taken it back yet and it is still valid for the loser tribes captain. (ie Ian and Yolanda are safe no matter what). If Seebs is feeding us the information about Jonathan and most people agree that Jonathan is on Ulong - I'm leaning toward a Ulong defeat at the first immunity challenge. I personally believe that Jolanda is safe and my next pick for a boot would be BJ. If Jonathan is not on Ulong and is indeed on Koror, I am going with Katie pick for the sole reason that we have seen very little of her and she is the only other survivor that Snews has on his game listed separately from the others. He asks specific questions about Katie, Wanda, and Jeff. I understand the he reads the boards a lot and could ask about Wanda and Jeff from reading the boards but Katie has not been mentioned that much - so why single her out?
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-15-05, 02:39 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Promo Visibility Analysis" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-15-05 AT 02:52 PM (EST)Thanks, Fp, I just saw TDT's post in forehead's thread. Hmm, it does sort of look like she is balancing there. The foliage looks like the foliage behind Kim and Willard in the pick'em shots. If the first "competition" is decided as soon as they get to the island, why would Jeff have to walk them somewhere else just to choose up tribes? I'm thinking the tribes must be formed right before the first official challenge, at the challenge site. So that's what this could be. Would MB really give two people such a huge pass at the start of the game, though? -- a guarantee of being on a tribe *and* a guarantee of not being voted out first? ETA: I also agree with pmspml5 that BobbyJon is the other high risk person at Ulong, since he also is almost never seen bonding with anyone either, though we do have the cap of him sitting in his buff with Kim, Ashlee and mystery person. The deterrent for me is all the promo shots he's getting, which would be very unusual for a first bootee. Then again, the first bootee isn't the first exit this time, and neither Wanda nor Jeff is getting any play.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 03:01 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: Promo Visibility Analysis" |
I think you are right about the Immunity necklaces (see Forehead's CBS press release for photos, etc.) Why give them a necklace if all Jolanda and Ian get for winning the race is they are the pick em "captains"? They continue to hold onto them. I think both of them are safe.But in a twist, maybe they are never "really told" exactly what they win, but the Survivors "assume" bc necklaces mean immunity at TC, they also get immunity if they have to go to TC. So in the losing tribe's machinations, neither Jolanda or Ian (depending on which tribe you think loses IC, imo it's Koror that's going to TC)is "targeted" because they are "thought to be immune." Then at TC Jiffy says (maybe even after they have all talked and they are ready to vote) "who said Ian/Jolanda had immunity, I didn't" But by that time, no one is willing to stray from their original plan on who goes and Ian/Jolanda become immune by default. Will Ian/Jolanda winning immunity at TC or faux immunity cause dissension in the coming weeks? I think so, so they may be (I think probably Jolanda moreso than Ian just because she is also a very strong and opiniated woman) in trouble early but as for week 1, I think they are both safe. And my gut just tells me that they both don't go. Sorry, BR, in my first "official" post for the season, I must disagree with you.....  
Handcrafted by RollDdice Thanks Fester for the work up on "appearances", etc. Very helpful--I think Janu goes at TC, FWIW
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 02:52 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: Promo Visibility Analysis" |
Anyone have a vidcap of that in motion? It's hard to tell from such a closeup of a still shot if she's in a challenge or just looked down for a second in the middle of a confessional, for instance.
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 05:45 PM (EST)
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76. "RE: Promo Visibility Analysis" |
Well, we all know a necklace equals individual immunity in Survivor. Both Jolanda and Ian are immune at the Pick 'Em, so they get each get a necklace to signify that. I really think that's it. *shrug*
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 02:50 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Promo Visibility Analysis" |
Fester: Thanks for the great work!It's obvious that MB has written off Wanda and Jeff, because in a sense they aren't really on the show...they'll be gone half way through EP1. The big question is how he will choose to edit the EP1 Boot leading up to TC...the EP1 boot has always received their face time and confessionals leading up to TC...Tc woulkdn't be dramatic without it. Therefore, I would speculate that the EP1 boot is someone who HAS had a fair amount of face time in the promos or atleast will have several confessionals during EP1. Some of the preview footage will appear during EP1, and some will not. JP was quoted as saying something like..." you will get to know seven or eight of the contestants during EP1"...this may mean that either the focus of EP1 will be on the tribe going to TC or that EP1 will focus on the "main characters" and the EP1/EP2 boots... Just two more days...we'll see.
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 04:00 PM (EST)
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69. "Revisiting Jeff's Pre-Show Cast Comments" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-15-05 AT 04:13 PM (EST)We may want to revisit JP's comments and consider how they fit in together with the spoilers we have indicating Jeff's early departure and the Dan Bollinger report of Ulong's eventual dominace... Sweatpea posted some of Jeff's key Pre-show cast comments here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=5675&forum=DCForumID2&omm=78 These comments are made in direct response to questions about Jeff Wilson, whom we now suspect to be eliminated pre-challenge. "Question: We have a local person, Jeff Wilson. What is he like on the show? Does he have any advantages seeing as how he's a personal trainer. JP: Jeff is a very physically fit guy you see that in the first few minutes of the show, he's in great shape. Seems to be a guy who not only is in good shape but has a good understanding of why he's in great shape and how the body works, nutrition. We gave him a hard time when we were casting the show because he shaves his entire body. We look for buttons to push. We kept saying "you'll never hack it, you'll never make it. You'll want to quit". We kept talking about him after he left the room. He's very engaging. Fun to be around. Physically, when you're physically fit there's always the question...will it work for you or will it work against you. If you last very long in Survivor this season...the Survivors will find out this is the most physical and original challenges we've had in quite a while. The first time we've aired the show out and go for it. They figured that out pretty early on. In those first few days, will they keep strong people or try to gut their own tribe? The message they find out is if you want to vote out your strong simply because they are strong you'll be back at Tribal Council more often than not and sooner or later it will be your turn. If the strong guys can last a little while I think it will work to their advantage this time. The tribes will realize "we need strength". They need to get rid of people who can beat you but you need to keep them long enough so that you don't beat yourself. That's always the question. If you get rid of strong people your status rises in the tribe dramatically but the status as a tribe diminishes. You continue to lose and lose. You might outlast that strong guy but you're not going to be there in the end."
The comments that JP makes about the decisions made to keep or vote out the strong and the eventual impact of that decision, are made in context of questions asked specifically about Jeff Wilson.
We now have the benefit of hindsight in light of the fact that Jeff is speculated to be eliminated early. Excerpts from JP's comments: Jeff is a very physically fit guy you see that in the first few minutes of the show,...we see that in the first few minutes because that's the only time we'll get to see Jeff. Physically, when you're physically fit there's always the question...will it work for you or will it work against you....as we've concluded, it will work against Jeff Wilson when someone chooses Willard over Jeff. In those first few days, will they keep strong people or try to gut their own tribe?...they end up gutting their own tribe by not selecting Jeff.
The message they find out is if you want to vote out your strong simply because they are strong you'll be back at Tribal Council more often than not and sooner or later it will be your turn....In the first few days, they find out that not selecting Jeff was a mistake and they end up at TC and that "sooner or later it will be your turn" when the Ulong pagong the Korror to eventually end up with a 6-1 advantage (per Dan Bollinger's report)
If the strong guys can last a little while I think it will work to their advantage this time. The tribes will realize "we need strength"....in response to Jeff's elimination and Korror's downward spiral, it works to Ian and Ibrehem's advantage this time. They lasted until the tribe came around and realize they need their strength in the challenges. You continue to lose and lose. You might out last that strong guy but you're not going to be there in the end."...Janu or whoever makes the decision to eliminate Jeff will outlast "the strong guy" Jeff, but she's not going to be their in the end...when she is voted out at TC after Korror loses the physically demanding challenge...and Korror continues to "lose and lose" until they are down to 6-1...
Krautboy
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 04:36 PM (EST)
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72. "RE: Revisiting Jeff's Pre-Show Cast Comments" |
I like Janu as a boot candidate, too. Mainly because she's been in practically every promo, but has said very little. She looks in distress in about 75% of her face time in them. The only things she's said in the promos are "This is a different Survivor" and "I don't fear anything". She's a pretty logical boot if Koror goes to TC. Caryn and Willard have had more relevant face time, and there's a spoiler about that Caryn survives E1. If it's Ulong who goes to TC, I'm leaning toward Ashlee at present. She got 3 minutes in the video interviews on the S10 website, but has been a no-show on the promos. If she doesn't go in E1, she goes in E2 or E3. Corvis has been told she goes early, as well. The only thing that makes me think she survives E1 is the potential for her to hook up w/ BJ in E2 ("Love Is In The Air..."). Of course, that title could also refer to Ibrehem and Jennifer, if they both wind up on Koror. Fester
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 00:58 AM (EST)
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79. "TV Guide Clue?" |
It has been speculated that the TV Guide Article was written by reporters who were on site during the first Episode and may have had information about the first three to leave the game.This page seems to support that spec, as we see Jolanda (EP1 Boot?), Jeff and Wanda (Pick 'Em victims)...and Janu leading Korror to victory in the IC? 
While the article itself doesn't give any clues, the page layout and the organization of the diaries certainly does...
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 08:57 AM (EST)
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80. "RE: TV Guide Clue?" |
Well, it sure looks as though we have our work cut out for us between now and tomarrow night. As for the article itself doesn't give any clues, the page layout and the organization of the diaries does....Well, I don't know about that statement now that we know that Jeff is not one of the first eliminatees. I think a great tool to use for deducing the bootee is indeed Fester's chart on Promo Visibility Analysis in post #53 of this thread. I think the bootee would not receive mega hype, IMO. I would consider those at the top of the list to be somewhat safe in ep 1. I would consider those to be listed lower than Seen and Heard...just not very often to be in trouble. Thus, our bootee is likely to be one of: Angie, Willard, Jolanda, Ashlee, or Jeff. Note that Jonathan and Wanda are confirmed as the eliminatees now, so they are out. We know that Willard survives the eliminations, but could he survive TC? I think there will be more to Angie's story than an episode 1 boot, I may be wrong... Ashlee, to me does not look to bring much to the tribal table. She could be perceived as the weakest link in the Ulong tribe and therefore a very plausible bootee choice. Jeff was almost considered a lock for the second eliminatee as he was "off the map" along with Wanda. I still think this bodes poorly for him. He is a strong, powerful male which could threaten others in the tribe, but is he more threatening than Jolanda? We do know that the necklace that Jolanda and Ian receive at LEAST keeps them safe for the first two eliminations, I would not bank on them being immune through TC, however. At this point I am favoring Ashlee, Jeff, or Jolanda as our first bootee....
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 09:10 AM (EST)
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81. "Ulong wins IC?" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 09:18 AM (EST)The TV guide clue is out the window with the vidcap confirmation of Jeff on Ulong.
This new vidcap from Dreamer and posted at Survivor Shrine show Korror celebrating (raising their paddles in the air and smiling)...looks like a pretty strong indication that Korror wins the IC and that the EP1 boot is from Ulong, (so Willard is safe)
Joland or Jeff...
Krautboy
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 09:24 AM (EST)
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82. "RE: Ulong wins IC?" |
Rarely, if ever, are the intelligent, strong "leaders" booted out first. As Jolanda was the Captain and "Picker" of the Ulong tribe, I would think that the survivors on her Tribe would be "grateful" to her for picking them and keeping them in the game. Why would they be so quick to vote her off? As well ... perhaps the tribe that does not pick Jonathan will be the tribe that suffers without his strength. Therefore ... I am leaning more toward a Jeff (under the radar in pre-season promotion) or Ashlee (weakest link) boot.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 03:11 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: Ulong wins IC?" |
I agree Corvis, I think the high fives are of the tribe when they find their beach. I think this is misdirection and they actually lose the IC. There are vidcaps of the challenge in PMS thread and it has pictures of Jeff Probst running beside Koror, in a challenge like that (and from watching old tapes of previous seasons) Jeff generally runs beside or slightly behind the tribe that is behind in the challenge.This is going to be a physical challenge, Ulong has the more physical younger people. Their stamina will be like Samburu beating Boran. Koror will hang in for a bit, but I believe Koror gets beat. I am also leaning now to a Katie boot. She too has been nearly invisible and is a jokester. If her tribe loses the challenge, they will choose to cut her loose to stay strong. I am also going to venture out and say next week is the Willard boot, and the following week Ibrehem gets sick and Ulong will face their first TC. It's all speculation, but that's what I'm going with.
S10 PTB Sign up HERE
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lovwigglesworth 239 desperate attention whore postings
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02-17-05, 02:21 PM (EST)
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130. "not a map" |
Jen does not have a map. That is some kind of wing-like thing attached to the boat. You can see it better in some of the other pictures.
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 10:54 AM (EST)
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84. "Immunity Challenge - Ulong loses?" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 10:58 AM (EST)Have we seen any clear pictures of Ulong at the Immunity Challenge? I saw a preview from TVTome.com, making me wonder if they only have 7 people competing.. 20 Castaways will be forced to row to shore with the clothes on their backs and find their camp. All 20 castaways will begin the game by being on the same tribe. 2 people will get lost and miss a challenge while 3 people are voted out. We have 2 players who don't get picked in the Pick'em and are eliminated. And we have 2 players who somehow get lost going to the first challenge, causing their team to lose? To quote the episode title, this has never happened before! Maybe I'm dense, but for awhile I thought these two lost people were the same as the eliminated ones. That is, before we knew about the Pick'em. I know we've seen lots of pictures of Koror in the challenge. Have we seen any Ulong ones?  
Jims02: Proud member of the inoffensive OT Triumvirate. Jims' Random Thoughts
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 11:13 AM (EST)
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85. "Re-examining Ulong" |
OK, we now know who is on Ulong. We also have what appears to be visual evidence of a Koror victory in the E1 IC. Here's an updated boot sheet for Ulong based on the new info:Stephenie
For boot: None readily apparent. Against boot: Weight loss spoilers, heavy emphasis in promos. Outlook: Safe for E1 Kim
For boot: Lack of focus in promos. Against boot: Reports of damaged hair upon return, does not fit typical E1 boot profile. Outlook: Safe for E1 Angie
For boot: Self proclaimed "freak factor" fits E1 boot profile. Against boot: MB and Probst hype, more promo focus than normal for an E1 boot. Outlook: Safe for E1 Ashlee
For boot: Absence from promos, potential to wilt under conditions. Against boot: Potential blossoming relationship with BJ fits E2 title. Outlook: At risk for E1 Jolanda
For boot: Probst quote about "gutting" tribe of strength early, potential outsider status fits E1 boot profile, self-proclaimed intimidation factor, possibly argumentative Against boot: Strength is typically valued early, respected status as tribal "captain" Outlook: At risk for E1 Ibrehem
For boot: Probst "gutting" quote Against boot: (Sketchy) weight loss rumors, doesn't fit typical E1 boot profile, better options to fulfill Probst's quote Outlook: Safe for E1 James
For boot: Loud behavior may alienate him Against boot: Promo focus too big for an E1 boot, seems to be hyped as comic relief of S10 Outlook: Safe for E1 Bobby Jon
For boot: Lots of negative imagery in promos featuring him, Probst "gutting" quote, TDT has him at risk Against boot: Serious promo focus on him is much more than usual for E1 boot, Potential blossoming relationship with Ashlee fits E2 title. Outlook: At risk for E1 Jeff
For boot: Probst "gutting" quote fits him best, total absence from promos, potential superiority complex Against boot: Youth and strength are usually valued early in the game. Outlook: At risk for E1 Fester
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 12:48 PM (EST)
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92. "RE: Re-examining Ulong" |
Yes, good summation Fester, I tend to agree that Kimber, Ibrehem, Stephenie, James, and Angie are all safe. So that leaves the most likely candidates as BJ, Jolanda, Ashlee, and Jeff.It looks like we all may have to depend on logic to figure this one out. First, there are 5 girls and 4 guys on this tribe. All of them appear to be physically fit....with perhaps the exception of Ashlee. I'll start with BJ. He, IMO, has been featured alot in the pre-show hype, showing off his "guns", looking good in his buff, looking worried at the pick'em, splashing in the water, etc. He does'nt sound like the sharpest tool in the shed, from his pre-show interviews. We know that next week the title is "Love is in the air"... I think this will somehow feature BJ. It has been speculated that it's specifically referring to BJ and Ashlee. But, I think it will indeed feature BJ, and why not him vying for the attention of the beauty queens on his tribe, Kimber and Stephenie? I think BJ will make it past ep 1, as he is not the weakest link in the tribe, yet I don't think the other males in the group will take him too seriously. He'll be made fun of next ep. This is just my opinion. Jolanda is indeed an alpha female. She is the oldest of her tribe, yet she is a real physical asset and probably one of the strongest on her tribe. She definately does not fit the older, weaker, kooky female. I think that all of these Survivors have been around long enough to realize the best way to make it to the end game is to bring the numbers at the merge...I am assuming that they will all anticipate a merge at some point in the game. I think that Jolanda is a player that would be prized up until the merge. As the first female to the banner, she won immunity and it's speculated that she'll start off the pick'em. I think that some of the peeps on Ulong will hold her in higher regard as perhaps saving them. She most definately will not be the weakest to perform in the challenges. If she does'nt act too bossy and can take direction I am thinking she'll be safe. Logically, I do not think the other women would target her, if I were on that tribe, I know that I would not at this point in time. Her biggest threat will come from the other alpha males on the team that may view her as threatening to them, namely Jeff, Ibrehem, and BJ. However, Ibrehem and Jolanda are the only two African-Americans on the entire show, therefore they have a common bond, and I do not see Ibrehem going along to vote off Jolanda, especially if the girls don't seem to want to. So, logically, I think Jolanda will survive ep 1. Jeff, imo is in trouble. Jiffy got the impression that he was very cocky, speaking of all the girls he gets, shaving his body, etc. He appears cocky in his interviews, saying that he knows he will not be the first one voted off(irony). From his pre-show vidcaps, it has been speculated that he is somewhat of a leader, judging from body language. IMO, there is nothing more obnoxious than a know-it-all youngster, he is the youngest in the tribe at 21. If his direction can be construed as bossy, he's toast. I can see the older women thinking along these lines, and the other strong, more reserved males there may be threatened by him or find him annoying. His pre-show coverage is "off the map", as was Wanda's. He's a huge bet for first boot. So many are aiming at Jeff and Jolanda, but I really think Ashlee is not long for this game. When she speaks, she does'nt really have much to say. In a tribe full of physically fit people, she seems the least athletic. If her performance in the challenge is sub-par, I would think with all of the extremely competitive peeps there, that she would be the number one target. As a competitive female, I think she would most likely be my preferred target. I also think that some of the guys may favor her as well...especially if she's a talker that gets on everyone's nerves. So, logically, I think that Jeff and Ashlee are the most at risk, FWIW. This is all speculation on my part, but after all, isn't this what this thread is all about?
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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 03:15 PM (EST)
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97. "RE: Re-examining Ulong" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 03:18 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 03:17 PM (EST) Sorry to interrupt the spec about which Ulong goes, but please help me out. Why is everyone so sure Ulong loses immunity? So far, we have: Sad faced images of Ulong members (Koror has 'em too).
A shot of Koror celebrating in a boat (which I really feel is not from the challenge)
A shot of Jeff P. running next to the Koror tribe because they might be crossing the finish line and he wants to be there (very speculative in my opinion)
bianca and callmecrazee think Jo goes (I don't think either of them is saying they have a source for that info)On the other side we have: A really physical challenge (first ep challenge always is) and Ulong has most of the strongest members (Bobby Jon, Steph, Jeff, Jolanda, Ibe) and Koror has the weakest members (Caryn, Willard, Tom).
There are sad shots of Koror (Coby's pic is the best one, IMO)Edited to add a pic of Caryn having fallen down during the challenge: 
I don't think it's conclusive either way unless there's a spoiler out there that I am missing. So help me me out, what am I missing?
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 04:23 PM (EST)
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105. "RE: Re-examining Ulong" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 04:29 PM (EST)>1) I don't think the boat
>cap is from the challenge
>either, it is Koror arriving
>at their camp I don't think so either, but I don't think they'd be that happy to arrive at their camp if they had to start plotting to see who was going to be voted out at TC. They appear to be free of that stress for a few days...enjoying their victory.
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 04:37 PM (EST)
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108. "RE: Re-examining Ulong" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 04:52 PM (EST)Okay, maybe this is how it happens. They go for a little walk with Jeff. There they choose the tribes and receive their buffs. Wanda and Jonathan leave. Everyone else is sent back to green-flag camp, where they commiserate over the awful start to the game. The next day they are summoned for a challenge. Hence different attire from the pick'em. The challenge involves each tribe using a boat with oars. When the challenge is over, the tribes will take those boats and row to their respective new camps (or perhaps as you say, the winning tribe gets to keep their boat while the losers don't). If that is the scenario, I would say Koror's glee here is also tied to an immunity win.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 04:27 PM (EST)
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107. "RE: Re-examining Ulong" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-16-05 AT 04:28 PM (EST)I don't think the boat cap is the challenge either, it is Koror arriving at their camp... 
I don't know, here's a cap of the challenge and it definately involves oars, as we see one in Janu's hand here...perhaps they have to follow the rope through the jungle, collecting oars along the way, then all arrive to the boat and paddle to a finish somewhere...I know at the arriving at the beach Koror shots, we do not see any flags or mats, but yet, I still am not writing off that jubilant arrival shot as not being involved in the challenge somehow... To me, if the challenge involves collecting oars, then boats must be involved....
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-16-05, 05:10 PM (EST)
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110. "The question for me" |
I'm currently residing in the "Koror wins IC" camp, primarily because of these 2 images:
It's clear that the Janu's paddle (clearly from the IC) matches the paddles in the bottom pic. It makes the most sense to me that the paddles are acquired during the challenge (we've seen this multiple times in challenges past), and then once finished the land course, the teams have to row to the finish line. This, in my mind, doesn't conflict with the idea that the bottom pic might not be from the IC. It's entirely reasonable to think that after the IC, the tribes take those boats and row back to camp. What isn't logical, imo, is to think that the bottom pic precedes the top pic. So, whether Koror is celebrating an IC win at the finish line, or at their camp upon return (which is what I think it is), it doesn't much matter. The point is they're celebrating after the IC. The only footage I'm trying to reconcile is this: 
Is this from the walk back from the pick 'em, or a march to TC, or something else entirely? It seems more likely, to me at least, that they're walking to their new camp. Tom and Katie are carrying bundles and Tom also looks to be carrying a machete. I haven't seen any theories as to what others think this is from. Please enlighten me. Fester
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-16-05, 05:55 PM (EST)
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115. "RE: The question for me" |
I'm not sure that that cap is of Koror winning the challenge. I think it is when they first arrive at their camp.This was posted by Garbotalk at Sucks so we know that they have to row to the challenge beach from their camp.
"From a Canadian TV guide article:
"It's an incredibly difficult half-mile obstacle course that involves climbing over, under and through many wooden barriers. With the castaways, now separated into teams and paddling towards us from another island, Probst takes the opportunity to run me through the challenge, and the armchair critic in me is forever silenced. The game of Survivor is designed to hurt. The wood used in building these challenges is not sanded-it's splintery. The two newly formed tribes-Ulong and Koror-row onto the beach. We are rushed to the end of the challenge so we don't get in the way, and the work begins. For a challenge that will last two or three minutes on TV, this one takes the winning team 20 minutes to complete!" http://p085.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm11.showMessageRange?topicID=1131.topic&start=61&stop=80
I think first they do the pickum. Then they walk through the jungle to get to their boats.
It looks like Ian is carrying a flag of some sort. And Jenn's hair is down. Also, in this cap, you can Steph holding what might be a flag. 
Jenn's hair is down in the boat. And that might be the flag in front of her in the boat. I think that this is when they first arrive at their camp. The next day, they then row to the challenge as commented in the Canada TV article. I agree that if it was the end of the challenge, they should be pulling their boat up onto the shore and racing to whatever and Jiffy standing there with the idol. They wouldn't be celebrating unless the other tribe was so far behind them that they had all the time in the world. Could be but I doubt it. 
In the challenge pic, it looks like Jenn's hair is pulled back to me. So this is at a different time. 
Koror could still win the challenge I just don't think that boat shot proves it.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-16-05, 07:05 PM (EST)
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116. "RE: The question for me" |
Sweetpea, are you thinking that is Jennifer behind Ian in the last cap? It's Katie.Something's fishy here. Wezzie, the location spoiler extraordinaire, posted this is response to Garbotalks' post: Wezzie
MESS member
(2/16/05 1:05 am)
Reply
ezSupporter Re: Location photos and information
Sooooo.... the contestants are already divided into two teams when they "paddle towards us from another ISLAND." Island?? Island???? EXCUSE ME!!! What happened to Ulong and Ngerblobang?Are we back to two teams on Ulong??? Start the show, darn it!!! This enquiring mind wants to know where the tribal camps were located, and pronto!
------------------------------------------------------------ Wezzie was under the impression the tribes were housed on different islands. So I'm thinking maybe the two tribes arrive at the challenge all together in the original boat, coming from green-flag camp. It doesn't say they are in two boats, just that they have already been separated into teams. I.e. they don't go to their separate camps until after the challenge.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-16-05, 07:14 PM (EST)
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118. "RE: The question for me" |
Oops. Thanks BR. I saw the blonde hair and black top and thought it was jenn. I didn't know Katie had a black top, too. You're right. It is Katie. And, she is dressed the same as on the walk and in the boat so now I am back to being confused again. I think I'll go back to lurking.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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02-16-05, 09:33 PM (EST)
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120. "RE: The question for me" |
Episode 1 historically does not have both RC and IC, this one will only have the IC as well. There is no way in 60 minutes airtime, 20 DAWS, a pick em, IC, TC and story developement for an RC. They are given machetes and canteens, map to the water, and thats it. They live together as one group for the first day or 2 and that is why the confusion with no instructions, do they build shelter, are they 1 tribe, why no buffs, etc.
S10 PTB Sign up HERE
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bobscure 217 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-16-05, 09:45 PM (EST)
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121. "RE: The question for me" |
I realized they don't usually have both. I'm just trying to allow for the happy/unhappy Koror pics, which could just be from the pick-em, and 2 peeps literally getting lost. I've read a mess of theories, and looked at all the pics. Just lending a most likely incorrect theory of my own to answer a specific question.
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lovwigglesworth 239 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-16-05, 05:35 PM (EST)
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113. "Jolanda" |
Maybe who she chooses to target is the key to why she may get voted out. If there is a "cheerleader" club forming and she suggests one of them for elimination rather than joining them...
Also, just a thought, but what if the whole lost thing happens during the challenge. I know it's not worded that way but here's how I see it; They get a map to find all the oars (or just follow ropes or something) and then have to each find their oar, get to their boat and row to a beach. If a couple of Ulongs get lost finding their oars, that would explain why they seem to be so far behind if the celebration pic is in fact a win pic.
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biancaxxx 282 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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02-17-05, 07:03 AM (EST)
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123. "Accident effects Koror's game?" |
I've posted this on Sucks, but for those who don't venture there, I have recently heard that an "accident" of some sort may happen on tomorrows episode to Koror (I don't know if they'll show it, but I'm hoping that they do lol). I don't know what type of accident, but I've heard that things may get lost as a result of it. I know that it has nothing to do with the shark, or any other animal. The most important thing about this "accident" is that it is said to effect Koror's whole game.
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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02-17-05, 09:12 AM (EST)
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126. "Koror wins immunity" |
Flowerpower - found this pic of Ian with the II
You will also notice that the IN is no where on Ian during or after the challenge. My guess is that Jolanda is not safe for TC. I would limit my picks for TC vote to between Jeff, Jolanda
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WHEEZE
Let's just say my face is quite red right about now! My apologies Corvis .... forgive me ... I am somewhat of a newbie around here still and *smooches* to the Roach & Krautboy (on Valentine's Day too) for setting me straight! 
Thank you for giving me honor in hat form.
