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"TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION"
pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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01-24-05, 05:11 PM (EST)
 
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"TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
I wanted to pull some things together and also put out a theory out there for people to discuss.From FlowerPowers Post here http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5672.shtm we know that the two shots of the boats are not the same arrival. We also have a shot of JP on the beach leading the survivors here: 
Is it possible they are welcomed by JP - told take this boat and go to that island. When they get there they are given no further instructions and are led to believe that this is where they will making camp. The next day (I say next day do to lots of pics with sunburns) JP shows up and says something to the fact - did we tell you to make camp here - take this boat and go over there - and it will be in your best interest to get there fast. That is why we have shots of them getting off the boat the 2nd time in a great hurry. Some running some diving in etc. I am just not sure if they know the results of why they are running. There is rumar at Phoenix that Wanda and possibly Caren are the first two boots. We have a quote of Caren saying "We dont what is going to happen" When is this? We know there are three tribal colors from these pics: 
We also have tires that are rumored to be part of the first challenge and these tires are in three colors 
We think that the name of the brown or green tribe is Korer 
If you look in the right bottom corner of this pic it looks like a green colored buff by Tom 
We also know that the mascot for the green tribe is the shark by this flag picture: 
The name of the blue tribe is said to be Ulong. We have pics of both Angi and Kimberly in a blue buff. We think that the mascot for the blue tribe is the stingray. 
So Angie, Kimberly, Coby for sure and probably Tom make it at least to the first challenge. Two are said not to and I think its the last two on shore - why else would they be racing. Phoenix is guessing that the first two will be women - Wanda and someone else. In one of the pics I blew up it looks like Caryn has her mouth opened like she just got hit 
could set her back and she is one of those with pre-opener exposure. I havent seen a lot on Wanda though What do you think? 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-25-05, 08:07 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
Excellent thoughts here, PMS! I am convinced that there are indeed 2 separate arrival shots. I think perhaps the two different arrival shots could have all the survivors present. I am led to believe that the second arrival shot, where they run aground on the sand bar, then quickly jump ship, along with the shots of them swimming to shore and then coupled with the pics of Jolanda and Jennifer racing across the beach, is indeed some kind of race. In the original shots of the arrival,they are shown sauntering off. You see Kimmer off of the shallow left side, whereas the second arrival shot, you see Kimmer clearly jumping off on the right side of the boat...As you speculate, perhaps the second arrival shot shows them racing to some point as per Jiffy's instruction. This could be a race that will end in the first two eliminations???As to the speculation of the shot where Caryn's shown with her mouth open, perhaps she's smashed her finger or something. Brownroach has found a weight loss speculation at Sucks that notes that she came back thinner as well. I don't know what kind of info SPhoenix has to speculate that Caryn is one of the first two eliminated. This is a hard call......
 
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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01-25-05, 10:59 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
LAST EDITED ON 01-25-05 AT 11:05 AM (EST)Ty for that update. I thought I read on one post that they thought it could be Caryn. From Phoenix "We expect Wanda to be one of the players cut. Whether it was the singing or the unwillingness to shed clothes, she does not appear to have clicked with the remaining castaways." I just dont see this. She hasnt shed clothes maybe because she is uncomfortable in her undies and can't. To say she does not appear to have clicked with the reamining castaways is a bit early. She is shown collecting wood with others - if you look closely in the background you can see the black t-shirt. 
She is also shown here to be having what looks to me like a great conversation. 
I am still confused as to why we have 3 colored buffs - 3 colored tires. Have they used 3 colors in any other survivor other than All-stars - and then they had 3 tribes right.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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01-25-05, 04:53 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
pmspml5, just to clarify the Caryn info. From the web promo for E1, it seemed that certain people were given confessional time. Assuming that the boot for the episode will get some face time, then eliminating the ones who are thought to get further in the game, we are left with Bobby Jon and Caryn as potential boots. This is only spec, mind you.As for Wanda, if the pickem info is correct and Wanda is indeed one of the last 2 standing, then one can indeed argue that she simply did not connect as much with 16 of the players (the ones who picked) as they did with each other. It doesn't mean she was disliked. There is contradictory information floating around about buffs, but in past seasons, there have been 3 buffs (2 pre-merge tribes and the merged tribe), All-Stars excepted.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-05, 09:43 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
I agree that it is noteworthy, but it would not be entirely unprecedented.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-05, 08:42 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
Orange mat behind Leann.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-01-05, 03:41 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
Is this Janu or Stephanie? I am gathering from this pic that this person is probably not one of the first booted. Would I be correct in this assumption?
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Scarlett O Hara 3439 desperate attention whore postings
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01-27-05, 10:54 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
As you have sourced info that Wanda is one of the first to be eliminated, and it is logical as she is probably one of the least physically fit out there, I am wondering who second one to be eliminated would be. Rather than Caryn, the marathoner, I'd lean more towards Ashlee as the next least most physically challenging female out there....Ashlee or Katie....Ashlee is very short and seems very "round".... I have to differ with you on this one FP! History shows us that the "least physically fit" survivors most often last far longer than the physically fit survivors because they are far less threatening. Look at Sandra, Johnny Fairplay, Lil, Scout, Jan and Cliff ... Why are we now A$$uming that Wanda and other less physically fit players will be the first to be voted off because they are not physically fit and do poorly in a competition? Eliminating survivors from the game from a competition is not EPMB's style. Survivors are voted off (in the first episode especially) more for reasons that lean more toward their ability or inability to get along with and compliment the group and/or the skills they bring to contribute to the well-being of the group. As far as the theory that there may be three tribes ... this is something I can subscribe to. We have seen the three different colors - red, blue and green in buffs as well as on tires from a competition. To me ... that can mean only one thing ... there will be three separate tribes.  
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-05, 01:56 PM (EST)
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18. "If Korer is brown.........." |
LAST EDITED ON 01-28-05 AT 02:01 AM (EST)I edited this post to give the correct credit to TDT who was the first one who mentioned the background colors Ok If Korer is indeed brown (which I'm not agreeing yet) then Coby is brown: 
Kimber is blue (as well as Angie) 
and.... there is Green which has Tom possible (lower right corner now there is blue in ti but the back ground color looks green) We also have green flag. 
A gree mascot (not sure I'm possitive this is green) 
Three colored tires:
And also TDT first noticed that the backgrounds of these three have been altered to show 3 colors: Blue:
 Green:
 and Brown:
 I am starting to wonder if the three colors is more than coincedence - - What do you think?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-05, 02:14 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: If Korer is brown.........." |
Excellent speculation there, pms! The three colors are most certainly more than a coincidence. Stephanie is also speculated to be on the Blue Ulong tribe as well as she is seen in the foreground of the pic with Kimber in the blue buff....With your post above you call attention to the distinct colors in the background of the caps that are shown in pairs....could this be survivors on a "silver" platter? Caps with blue background showing Jolanda and Ian....on blue tribe perhaps? Caps with green background...Tom and Jennifer on green tribe??? Caps with brown background...Jeff and Janu on brown tribe??? ....I know, I'm reaching again, but I just call 'em, like I see 'em.... ....we'll see soon! FWIW....Coby is carrying a BROWN wooden crate of rations, I suppose, with Koror on the side in orange!
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lovwigglesworth 239 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-05, 03:09 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: If Korer is brown.........." |
If, if, if
there are three tribes it would be three female, three male I would think. and we already know Kimberly, Stephanie, and Angie are on Blue team, so Jolanda would be a fourth female on that team. Or maybe they are not caring about the genders being equal on the teams this time.
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biancaxxx 282 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-05, 09:59 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: If Korer is brown.........." |
as much as it looks like a box, it's actually a flag.
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frankz 1214 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 04:37 PM (EST)
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94. "RE: If Korer is brown.........." |
Nothing to flame as far as I'm concerned. At the reunion show when they annouced this version they played up the WWII angle quite a bit. Showed burnt out tanks, underwater wreckage, etc. And now there is little or no mention of a military angle. Palau is well known for it's intense WWII battles but the SeeBS ads ignore that angle now.
I think you're right.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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02-01-05, 04:12 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: My Thoughts" |
Scarlett, I'm not sure which part of DW's thoughts you are wondering about; however the first portion of DW's thoughts I tend to agree with.Mark Burnett states: "They're given very little instruction about what to do, and some of them are genuinely lost," Burnett said. "Two people don't make it to the first challenge. That's how tough it is. It's very emotional." Burnett said the two early casualties aren't flukes. It is stated that the first two to leave was done completely by design which leads us to conclude that however it is done, it was done completely on purpose for the sole purpose of eliminating two people. I would think then the "real game" of Survivor will probably not commence until the dust has settled after eliminating these two people. He then further states two people (presumably those eliminated) do not even make it to the first challenge which could be perceived as that they are gone prior to the first real challenge as tribes. Due to the fact that exactly two people are eliminated, I would think that the mechanics of this elimination are fairly simple whether it is some style of competition as DW suggests or a situation where people are selected such as we saw in Thailand and the last two people are sadly told they will be going home. In any event, I highly suspect the method is simple as most of these situations on Survivor are though they should read our boards to get intricate ideas  The fact that a majority of people feel Wanda is not staying on the island for any length of time lends credence that either by a competition or a selection, Wanda would probably not be a main choice or a winner. As of now, I am of the mindset we will see two tribes though DW's theory sounds very interesting
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-04-05, 07:48 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Jolanda's Beads" |
Yes, Tribe, it sure does look as though Jolanda must have won something, as how did she get those beads? To me, they look identical to the pic of the money beads of Palau. It makes me consider a few things. We know that the tribe stays together initially, then are led somewhere, where either a competition of some kind is performed where the two/or three winners are deemed choosers of the two, or three tribes. The leaders, or winners of the competition could be awarded these beads after winning and then proceed to choose members of the tribes in a "pick'em" style, when the last two standing are eliminated. But what happens to the beads after the choosing is over? I am sure that Jiffy will not be snatching them back. The winners/leaders/choosers of the tribes must get to keep them, but for how long?Jolanda is a very valid and rational choice for winning some sort of competition, especially if it involves any running or jumping. In my mind, she could probably outrun/outjump any one there, including all of the guys. I am curious as to what will happen to the beads and their significance in the show. Will there be competitions every three days so others can have a chance to be the leader. Is the leader exempt from getting the boot....what would motivate the members to vie for leadership and the honor of wearing the beads? There must be some special privelege that they will get with winning them? I doubt that it is an immunity necklace as we know it is team/tribal competition so I would assume that there will indeed be some kind of immunity idol. If they are "money" beads, are they given to the tribes to use in exchange for various needed items, like flints, and food at certain points in the game? What will be the significance of the money beads necklace?
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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02-04-05, 09:11 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Jolanda's Beads" |
According to Bianca, they are just beads and don't have any significance in the game.
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biancaxxx 282 desperate attention whore postings
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02-07-05, 02:09 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Only Two Tribes" |
I double check for cracks.
Thank you for the warning though.
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biancaxxx 282 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 00:59 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Only Two Tribes" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 07:10 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 02:22 AM (EST) No, I think Sera is just wasting my time. If there are any cracks, they are minor/irrelevant, and made by Sera himself. He claims to have disguised himself as a source and given me false information which we all apparently now consider to be "fact". So, whatever. The only information I present as a fact/spoiler, is information that comes directly from my own source. No offence to Sera and his creativity, but I don't have the patience or the interest for his games.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 10:00 AM (EST)
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54. "What if the Two Tribes are not picked, but done......................" |
What if the two tribes are not picked, but are decided upon their arrival to the camp? OR in some other way in which the one tribe is set up as the "preferred tribe" and the other tribe is just the tribe. Isn't Palau an island where stature and things like that make things preferred or not? If this is correct, would it not make sense that the tribes be separated that way. Let's say that the first 10 that arrive at their destination are on the blue tribe and that the second 10 are on the brown. Blue is preferred. They get everything to set up camp and the other tribe gets nothing. The two that get lost only have the choice of nothing tribe. They prefer not to and there is only one other choice.
Or is it possible that they have two ways of getting back to a point and depending on which way you get to the designation after your arrival depends on which team you end up on and whether your on "preferred tribe" or not. And the two that don't follow whatever instructions or group decisions that are made are eliminated. I think this bears some research.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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02-11-05, 10:14 AM (EST)
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79. "RE: Only Two Tribes;Or maybe three" |
TWO TRIBES / THREE TRIBES The promos tell us that 2 players don't make it to the first challenge and that three are gone by the end of the first episode. The last one likely gets voted out at Tribal Council. The real question is whether 2 or 3 tribes are formed after the initial no-tribe drama is over. While we have received information which indicates that only 2 tribes are formed, it's a bit early to rule out the 3 tribes scenario without more evidence. Take your pick, the All-Star scenario (3 tribes of 6) or the Vanuatu scenario (2 tribes of 9). In support of the two tribe scenario, we have:
- the fact that information gathered by Wezzie and Survivor Maps from local sources in Palau only yielded the names and locations of 2 tribes
- the fact that only 3 colored buffs were ever discovered; this would support the idea of 2 tribes + a merge tribe, assuming the tribes merge at some point. In support of the three tribe scenario, we have:
- TDT points out at Sucks that the new promo featured shots where the backgrounds were altered to match the known buff colors: blue, brown and green. This was posted on Survivor Phoenix:
Two goes into twenty evenly, 10 times, JP refers to the feeling you get as being last picked in gym class or first to be laid off from a job. I don't know where everyone else went to school, but when I was in school, everyone got picked, you just did not want to be last. Plus, survivor would come off a little too cheesy if they just let those two people go, knowing that they were never going to play. But three goes into twenty six times with two left over. I buy into that. Remember that this is not a "typical" survivor season and that means "probably nothing typical is going on."
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 01:53 PM (EST)
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92. "RE: Only Two Tribes;Or maybe three" |
This was posted in that in that interview as well: Three tribes are not out of the question, even though there is no real evidence found so far to support that there would be. This is from the interview posted on Survivor Fever:Question: Talk about the set up where they are being dumped on the beach? JP: The idea was, starting with the All Stars we gave them basically nothing because they were getting so cocky we needed to bring them back down to size and let them know we're pulling the strings. Once we realized they can survive 72 hrs without water we never give fire again. I saw fire because it gives you water in most cases, you have to boil it. We've done the physical part where we give them nothing. What we haven't done is giving them no information. Almost always we give them some, here's the lay of the land, here's tribe A and tribe B, map of the water. This time I literally show up and say, "there's your beach, have a good time". What we want to do in each season is find one way to tweak the show that keeps them off balance. Not major restructuring, just tilt them a little bit. By not giving them any information... "Are we one tribe?" You could be, you could be 3 tribes, men vs women, tall vs short, old vs young. Nobody knows. They get on the beach the first day and they don't know. They wonder...do we start making alliances now? Or will that bite me in the #####. Do we build fire, do we build a shelter. Are we staying here. There's no name on the flag, it just says Survivor Palau. There's no clue that there's even one tribe established. It doesn't sound like a whole lot but it pays off in the first few days then it pays off on day 23 or day 33. Now what you put in their head is that it's a slightly different game. You can assume there's gonna be a merge, go for it, then you're a fool. That's what we try to accomplish with that.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 07:33 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
At this point, after the release of the TV guide pics, we are able to confirm survivors on two tribes:Ulong: Blue/Sharks: Speculated Captain: Jolanda Team Members:
Kimber, Stephanie, Ashlee, Angie, Bobby Jon, and I believe Willard(I still think that it could be him in his undies between Kimber and Ashlee behind the buffed BJ. Koror: Brown/Rays: Speculated Captain: Ian Team Members: Coby,
Janu, and James(speculated to be on a different tribe than Willard) This still leaves Ibrehem, Katie, Gregg, Caryn, Wanda, Jonathan, Jeff, Tom, and Jennifer that are yet to be confirmed on either tribe. Jennifer, Caryn, and Gregg are seen together post elimination and are therefore speculated to be safe from the first eliminations. They very well could be on the same tribe together as they are seen in a group, perhaps post elimination. There is a weight loss spoiler for Ibrehem. I think the weight loss spoiler for Katie is questionable. Tom had been speculated to be safe due to his position next to the reacting Coby, during the elimination....I don't think this is reason enough to be discounted from the group of potential first eliminated. So we are left with Katie, Wanda, Jonathan, Jeff, and Tom. Two of these five will be eliminated before the tribal split. I think it is likely at this point that one will be male.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 08:50 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
If you take the info that has been posted here and on the tv guide thread and also info provided on that thread from survivor fever and look at all the confirmations of who is where, then the deductions lead you to believe that Jeff and Wanda are the first two gone. Possibly Wanda and Katie as she is the main one left in question. There were 4 left that could not be confirmed for tribal colors. Jonathan,Katie,Wanda,Jeff. I will try to put the info together and piece it in one message.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 09:00 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 09:14 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 09:10 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 09:06 AM (EST) As I mentioned before this info here coupled with what has already been posted gives us the deductive reasoning on Wanda and more than likely on Jeff. Tribal Divisions: Survivor Phoenix Reports that:
"We will see a competition, though NOT a challenge. The competition should yield two winners who will begin a pick'em style chain selection for members of each squad... oops, make that 'each tribe'. The last two players remaining will be cut at this point ... oops, make that 'eliminated'. Tribal Division Chart
Koror Tribe
Mascot: Stingray Buff Color: Brown
Caryn (TV Guide assoc with brown buff)
Coby (Koror sign)
Gregg (TV Guide assoc. with brown buff pic)
Ian (TV Guide brown buff pic, paddle ring)
Janu (TV Guide brown buff pic)
Jolanda (TV Guide assoc. with brown buff pic)
Tom (TV Guide assoc. with brown buff pic)
Willard (Source: Biancaxxx)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ulong Tribe
Mascot = Shark Buff Color = Blue
Angie (Blue Buff Vid Cap)
Ashlee (Assoc. with blue buff pic)
Bobby (Blue buff vid cap)
James (Source: Biancaxxx)
Jennifer (Assoc. with blue buff pic)
Ibrehem (TV Guide article: flirt with Jennifer; iffy evidence)
Unconfirmed: Wanda, Jeff, Jonathan, Katie
Note: Two of these 4 are most likely eliminated
from the game before the tribes are chosen Tom is on brown. Green is merge color. I believe. This was posted by lovwigglesworth: Note it has Wanda and Jeff as two unconfirmed for buff colors.
So we need to put Ian and Jonathon back on our list of first two out possiblities (not Greg because of the other pic as stated above).
We then have;
Ian, Jonathan, Ashlee, Jeff, Wanda, and Willard.
I am in agreement with the Ashlee/Wanda thinkers.
Of course all of this doesn't mean anything for guessing the 3rd person off.
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biancaxxx 282 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 11:37 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
Willard and James placements are just spec at this point.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 10:27 AM (EST)
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55. "THIS MAY HELP BETTER UNDERSTAND TRIBE/CLAN TERMS" |
Welcome to the Heart of Micronesia! This is your best source for planning your Micro-FSM Vacation. Click through and explore what to do, where to go, unique experiences, and the best deals to the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) - Chuuk, Kosrae, Pohnpei & Yap. And if you’ve been privileged to visit us before, tell us about your experience by completing this survey.
VISITORS CENTER | YAP | CHUUK | POHNPEI | KOSRAEWHAT'S HOT AND SPECIAL Even though we believe that there are two tribes, it may help us to understand that the whole island is broken up into 4 Clans. These are the names of the four clans, which is the only reason for the import. Yap, Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae. They speak different dialects, but the primary language is english.
Somewhere along the line, this may play some role in team dynamics.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 04:14 PM (EST)
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57. "Tom as first TC boot?" |
Considering that the spec right now leans toward a Koror loss in the E1 IC, and the cap of Coby crying with Tom in the foreground alludes to Tom being on Koror (if you believe as I do that it's a post-selection reaction shot), I'm wondering if the first "traditional" boot isn't right under our nose.1) He supposedly tried to unite the guys (presumably because they had the numeric advantage at Koror), but failed, as the young men gravitated toward the young women. This would make sense for Coby, who's on record as trying to conspire with the women. It would also make sense for Ian, who mentioned being a flirt, and might figure he stands a better chance in a mixed group than an all-male one. 2) He supposedly also expressed remorse as to this plan of attack, which suggests an early exit. 3) He's gotten A LOT of face time thus far (Early Show and CBS promos). 4) Survivor has a history of 1st boots who tried to form an early bloc, but lost the numbers battle (Brook, Nicole, and Ryan A. all come to mind). I'd say thus far, IF Tom's on Koror, and IF Koror goes to TC in E1, he's a prime candidate for being booted. Thoughts?  Fester
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 04:39 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: Tom as first TC boot?" |
So you're saying that before Tom jumps the shark, he has to kill it? (OK, that was bad. Couldn't resist, though.)I hadn't seen that bit (or forgot about it). That muddies things up a bit, doesn't it? I don't know that its exclusion from mention thus far means it doesn't happen in E1, but I do think that it would be near impossible to fit into a 60-minute episode, given everything else they have to focus on. Maybe Tom was living vicariously and heard about it at the LL and took the story home? I know, not very likely. OK, so not Tom...for now. Fester
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 04:57 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: Tom as first TC boot?" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 05:18 PM (EST)Or he jumps the shark then someone else kills it. I think the "brotherhood alliance" conversation could easily happen in Ep. 1. I posted here that Tom may initially try to push it to prevent, oh, maybe Willard from getting booted. If we are correct about who is on the Koror tribe and Koror goes to TC first, either an all-male alliance or an all-young person alliance would be in a position to assume power. Coby as an eventual swing vote between young and old, maybe? ETA: Munson's post of the TV Guide text bears out that the conversation will happen early: **Tom is already worried about a youngun's alliance, fearful of getting shut out. I can easily see Tom deciding to go the "provider" route and taking on the shark, in an attempt to save his neck once the younguns are in control. Perhaps in Ep 2. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 05:23 PM (EST)
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61. "Examining potential Koror" |
If, as is partially confirmed/partially speculated, Koror shakes out to be...Ian
Coby
Tom
Gregg
Willard
Janu
Jennifer
Caryn
Katie ...then I can't help but wonder where Tom's going to find a niche if he fails with the young men. We can infer that it's not the younger women, based on Tom's thoughts that he lost the young men to the young women. Willard seems tight with Janu and maybe Caryn. He may adopt a "him or me" strategy, rather than try to seem tight with the other older guy. Likewise, I see Janu bonding with Willard more than Tom. In reviewing the vidcaps, Tom is most often in close proximity to folks not on his eventual tribe (Kim, Wanda, Jeff, Stephenie). Regarding the shark spoiler, could it be that the shark hunting was a bust early on, but later, after Tom was booted, they were successful? Does the quote say they were successful, or just that they went shark hunting? Fester
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lovwigglesworth 239 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 05:36 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: Examining potential Koror" |
There is a pic of Ibreham in a brown buff with Katie, Wilard, and I think Jonathon in the pic over at sucks. I saved it as a .jpg if someone wants to explain real fast how to pic a .jpg in my message.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 05:52 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: Examining potential Koror" |
I believe TDT and VG have explained that picture away as a distortion in the film...Ibrehem's tribe is unknown, but he is speculated to be safe for a while because of a weight loss report. Brownroach had also speculated that he may end up on a tribe with Bobby Jon, because of their knowledge of a mutual acquaintance...don't remember which thread, but it was discussed here at SBlows. So, while we don't have any confirmation, the current speculation for Ibrehem is safe in EP1 and probably on the Ulong Tribe with Bobby Jon. 
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 06:09 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: Examining potential Koror" |
Brownroach had also speculated that he may end up on a tribe with Bobby Jon, because of their knowledge of a mutual acquaintanceActually, KB, I didn't speculate that they would be on the same tribe. My speculation was that we might be able to tell how they fared respectively in the game -- assuming they probably wouldn't have the "mutual friend" conversation right away, at least not on Day One. E.g., if they started out on different tribes, and one went to LL without ever having been on a tribe with the other, we could speculate that the other went to LL as well. Or else they would both have to be on the same tribe at some point later. But if they wind up on the same tribe from the start, as we think, it doesn't help us in that regard. With fewer people to talk to once they are in a tribe, Ibee and BJ could easily have the conversation at any time, therefore either one could leave the game at any time. I hope that made sense. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 05:50 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Examining potential Koror" |
LAST EDITED ON 02-08-05 AT 05:54 PM (EST)I wish I could remember where the info first showed up -- I think it was reported in a post by Wezzie or Dan Bollinger, I'm not sure. But I am sure that it said that a contestant *kills* a shark. And Tom is very likely to be the shark-killer as he is a diver. I don't know if the bonds between the older people would be relevant if the five younguns decide to get rid of one of them. They will just pick a target. In fact they may decide to first get rid of an oldster who *is* friendly with the other oldsters rather than one who doesn't quite have a niche. ETA: And you have a point -- Tom probably won't ever find a niche and will get voted out early. I just don't think he'll go in Ep 1.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-08-05, 06:22 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Examining potential Koror" |
Yes, I think that what your talking about might have been something on survivor news. I remember seeing what you are talking about or something in that regards. Or Survivor Fever.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-05, 00:41 AM (EST)
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70. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
FWIW, the supposed tribal flags were an angelic ghost's creation.
No spoiler value there.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-09-05, 09:23 AM (EST)
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71. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
BOOT/ Jeff? Bobby Jon? Caryn? Janu?
No early-breaking spoilers on this yet, but the 1/21 web promo may make some hints about people potentially in trouble. If past series are any guide, early boots often appear unhappy in the previews for the show in which they are booted. Additionally, being in water is generally a bad omen (fire is life, after all). Along these lines, several people make out-of-context grimaces in the web promo (see below), including Bobby Jon, Ian, Janu and Caryn. Send in the frowns (we caption the last one, "Here I am Silas! Come and get it!"):
We note that Bobby Jon is shown not only grimacing, but in the water as well (this may be from a challenge, perhaps falling off a balance beam-type object). So he was our early favorite for the first boot. But with his image in almost every commercial CBS runs, would he really be out so quickly? Maybe not. Ian is also heavily featured, shaking his wet hair, and with his face in his hands. But several people seem to think he lasts a while, so we'll remove him from consideration. So we'll go with a dark horse: Jeff Wilson. In Probst's circa-start-of-the-game cast synopses (transcripts here), the host has a very low opinion of Jeff's chances. And in his own pre-game interview (read/watch here), Jeff himself contemplates (and summarily rules out) being the first person voted out. Close enough... for now, at least.
The above is from Survivor Phoenix: True Dork Times. I found it interesting. I also would like for someone to tell me how you import clips from their origination point to postings here. I cannot seem to figure it out. Thanks
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-05, 03:01 AM (EST)
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74. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
And I apologize. I have been on Survivor Phoenix so much. But I followed a link on SP to TDT.
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sweetpea 223 desperate attention whore postings
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02-10-05, 08:42 PM (EST)
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78. "Jeff's Preshow Cast Comments" |
I wasn't sure where to put this but the transcript at SF also has some intersting comments regarding Jeff's take on the castaways.Question: We have a local person, Jeff Wilson. What is he like on the show? Does he have any advantages seeing as how he's a personal trainer. JP: Jeff is a very physically fit guy you see that in the first few minutes of the show, he's in great shape. Seems to be a guy who not only is in good shape but has a good understanding of why he's in great shape and how the body works, nutrition. We gave him a hard time when we were casting the show because he shaves his entire body. We look for buttons to push. We kept saying "you'll never hack it, you'll never make it. You'll want to quit". We kept talking about him after he left the room. He's very engaging. Fun to be around. Physically, when you're physically fit there's always the question...will it work for you or will it work against you. If you last very long in Survivor this season...the Survivors will find out this is the most physical and original challenges we've had in quite a while. The first time we've aired the show out and go for it. They figured that out pretty early on. In those first few days, will they keep strong people or try to gut their own tribe? The message they find out is if you want to vote out your strong simply because they are strong you'll be back at Tribal Council more often than not and sooner or later it will be your turn. If the strong guys can last a little while I think it will work to their advantage this time. The tribes will realize "we need strength". They need to get rid of people who can beat you but you need to keep them long enough so that you don't beat yourself. That's always the question. If you get rid of strong people your status rises in the tribe dramatically but the status as a tribe diminishes. You continue to lose and lose. You might outlast that strong guy but you're not going to be there in the end. Question: Why does Jeff shave his body? JP: We asked and he said "I do it for athletics". "What sport?" He'd say "I started with my ankles for riding bikes"? He shaves his entire body. There are other reasons. I told him "the only reason I would shave my entire body is if my woman wanted me to". He admitted, "well yeah it has to do with women, they like it". We kept trying to get him to justify himself. He came clean, said he likes it, does it everyday in the shower. How do you do that and not risk fatal injury. Question: The local contestant from here, Caryn Groedel, what can you say about her? JP: One of 3 attorneys. Kinda funny, they are so very different. Caryn is a civil rights attorney. Very well spoken, has a sharp mouth. She's not lippy, she is more than well spoken, very eloquent in making her point, will not hold back, not passive... tries to get along but will tell if you're rubbing her the wrong way. There interesting thing about Caryn is not that she's an attorney, that she's a Mom. She's a mom, 3 kids. The people who are parents in general are better equipped to deal with social situations. They've been through kids who have differences of opinions or are fighting. Little squabbles about who gets the water.. "oh I'll go get it". Older people are less likely to flip out. In evaluating Caryn, I would look at not that she's an attorney but that she's a mom Question: Ian... a giant among Survivor players. That height, does it help or hurt? JP: Ian is 6'8". It's the tallest Survivor cast we've ever had. Ian in terms of putting him on the show, he was on when he walked in the door in my mind. A super likeable guy. Exudes genuine-ness that he's happy to be alive, wants to play and have fun. Really a likeable guy, very humble, a kid...makes him appealing because If he lasts long enough he'll probably make mistakes because of judgment. Just like I was talking about with Caryn. When I look at young people I'm thinking: Are they confident enough to make it. They don't have the life experience. You see it with Eliza, Jenna, go down the list of young people. Ian was instantly likeable. He's very good in the water, he works with dolphins a lot. We knew this would be a water season. The height came up on day one somebody made a comment "wow you're gonna have an advantage in this game". If Ian reaches for something high he has an advantage. Crawling low... doesn't have advantage. Any physical attribute works for or against you. Depends on the challenge. It's not a big factor. Rest assured...if there's a challenge involving height somebody will be complaining that Ian is still in the game. Question: Angie's tattoos...are you inspired to get one. JP: Angie's tattoos are really thoughtful in terms of their placement. It's not like she just tattooed her body. she has a specific design. She's an interesting women in terms of the tattoos. People look for any reason to separate you from the group, especially on Survivor. People are looking for a reason to exclude you or include you. Angie knows coming into this game she's a bit of an oddball in terms of fitting in. Her real tough challenge... "give me a chance don't just look at my body". you'd think that now people would look past that stuff, just like race and sexuality... it does matter, it's a factor... may have a small part but it plays.
Question: You've got 3 trial lawyers...an all time high. What about that profession fits this game?
JP: I don't think it gives them an advantage. I can't figure out what an advantage in this game could be. It makes them a more interesting candidate. They are skilled orators. Good with the word, know how to make an argument and to make a counter argument. always good in the room, engaging. You say black, they argue white. Cops are sometimes interesting... people in the medical world, people who engage with society daily are more skilled than those who don't. We have attorneys on the show... you're asking for it. For them to say... uh uh uh I think that's a rule violation. I don't take ##### from anybody, zip it I don't want to hear it. Question: If this game is more physical, isn't that a disadvantage for older contestants? JP: Could be. Getting rid of physical people first could hurt you. Getting rid of weakest who may be the best thinker, sharpest shelter builder or the best firemaker, peacemaker. It's this management, approach it like a team, not a sporting event but a team. Your leader, you have to look and say, we need to be balanced, fun people, people who can carry us physically. If you go in and get rid of all the weak it will get bit you in the ##### in the end. Question: What can you tell us about Jolanda Jones? Jolanda: The whole package, physical, guessing she's 6 foot world class athlete, recent. phenomenal shape. Works for indigent clients, helps those who need help, compassionate side, physically imposing. Huge point of view and can't stop telling you how it is and how it should be. Her background...dramatic tragic background in her family, suicide, death. She smiles, million dollar smile disarms you. It's true...how aware you are of how others perceive you. Jolanda has to be not too strong. She has an arsenal of tools, weapons. Good player? We'll see but on paper... compare this group to Vanuatu...Vanuatu was the most normal people. No standout characters but incredible final Tribal. Palau is completely different, not a group 20 individuals. Marquesas was fun people, Thailand was mean-spirited. Palau...all unique players.. You're gonna know 7-8 people by name by end of first episode. Jolanda in terms of being a good player? beats the hell out of me but she has good skills and should be a good player. http://www.survivorfever.net/s10_jp_media_teleconference.html
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 12:28 PM (EST)
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84. "Korror "guts their own tribe"?" |
This comment suggests that voting decisions that result in the booting strength early on comes back to bite one of the tribes..."...In those first few days, will they keep strong people or try to gut their own tribe? The message they find out is if you want to vote out your strong simply because they are strong you'll be back at Tribal Council more often than not and sooner or later it will be your turn." Sounds like one of the strong people may be voted out early...maybe "in those first few days". Is the person voted out at the first TC one of the strong? Maybe Jonathan? Since we have information that places many of the younger, stronger players on Ulong and information that tells us most of the older contestants end up on one tribe, combined with a report that eventually the Ulong outnumber the Korror 6-1 we might speculate: The younger Ulong vote out the old and weak. The older Korror make the mistake of voting out their youth and strength and end up "back at Tribal Council more often than not..." We know the early challenges will be very physical, so we might speculate that the Korror lose the first challenge, go to TC and make a mistake..."in those first few days...gut their own tribe"
Since we've got less than a week left, it's time to start speculating:
The pre-show confessionals and promos have "hidden" or perhaps just written off Wanda and Jeff, while Jonathan has gotten a lot of face time...MB may have decided not to waste alot of time with those who never even make it onto a tribe, and will focus on the EP1 TC boot instead. The young Ulong chain decides to dump the older weaker Wanda.
The older Korror chain decides to dump a younger stronger Jeff.
Korror Loses the first Immunity Challenge and goes to TC where they vote out a young strong Jonathan, whose pre-game comments about being voted out first become ironic...
Krautboy
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 01:15 PM (EST)
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86. "RE: Korror "guts their own tribe"?" |
The original post was made by Dan Bollinger of Survivor Maps at SSucks in the S10+ Forum:"The only information (rumor) I have is that Ulong Tribe is down to 6 members and Koror is down to only one and they are said to have been merged. And next week they will start with the elimination which would bring the conclusion to around December 10th. It is rumored that the contestants who have been eliminated have been flown or about to be flown off Island to Australia. This is what I have heard so far."
Krautboy
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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 01:47 PM (EST)
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91. "RE: Korror "guts their own tribe"?" |
Here's the exact quote..."The only information (rumor) I have is that Ulong Tribe is down to 6 members and Koror is down to only one and they are said to have been merged."You're right. You can't let a tribe get down to 1. Once it hits 2, it ceases to be viable as a tribe, in terms of being able to go to TC and vote someone out. The way I read the quote is that at this point there are 6 original Ulong and 1 original Koror. They "have" merged. The quote doesn't place a time stamp on when the merge took place. It's simply an update as to the current tribal configuration. The quote may be accurate and it may not, but don't get hung up on the language. Fester
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 01:28 PM (EST)
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88. "RE: Korror "guts their own tribe"?" |
But in one of the versions of that interview, he was also quoted as saying that voting out all of the ones that are "perceived as weaker" can also have its repercussions when it comes to the strategist, the hunter/provider and the camp cook. Those are not exact words, but pretty close.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-11-05, 01:40 PM (EST)
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90. "RE: Korror "guts their own tribe"?This was also in there" |
Question: If this game is more physical, isn't that a disadvantage for older contestants? JP: Could be. Getting rid of physical people first could hurt you. Getting rid of weakest who may be the best thinker, sharpest shelter builder or the best fire maker, peacemaker...you're also going to hurt yourself. It's this management, approach it like a team, not a sporting event but a team. Your leader, you have to look and say, we need to be balanced, fun people, people who can carry us physically. People who won't give in but are malleable. If you go in and get rid of all the weak it will bite you in the ##### in the end. This is the truth also. If you are 24 and an idea physical specimen, you still lack something that is not necessarily your fault, experience in life, a feel for people from all walks of life, and wisdom. You can't get that from books, and that is something that makes a tribe function better.
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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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02-15-05, 11:21 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: TRIBES AND FIRST BOOT SPECULATION" |
This was posted on Survivor News: I know there is compelling evidence or what we believe is evidence that Wanda is no doubt gone, but everyone is going on the assumption that she is weak:
I would not be so sure about that after reading this:She's no stranger to hardship. She recalled, on her video profile, that she and her ex-husband lost their home during a financial crisis. Shirk has two children, and has taken on the role of foster mother to 25 children from Europe. In addition to her warm heart and intelligence, those who know her said Shirk is physically strong enough to compete with those half her age, noting that she backpacked the 85-mile Susquehannock Trail in Potter County alone. "She even got a personal trainer to hone her swimming and survival skills," Gehret said. "But the reason she shouldn't be underestimated is because she's popular, affable and very unusual, able to think in unconventional ways." Her audition tape consisted of a newscast where she strips to a bathing suit and declares the weather to be "hot, hot, hot," her brother said. After being selected from about 50,000 entrants, Gehret said, Shirk was invited to a regional interview in Philadelphia and then made it to Los Angeles in September for a week of further scrutiny. Then she disappeared from her teaching duties from late October to early December to go to the Micronesian island to tape the adventure. The buzz on Shirk has already begun in Lancaster and Potter counties, said Valentine, who also signed a confidentiality pact with CBS. One local eatery, the Bailey Hill Lodge, is planning to put up signs to track her progress on the show. LI WANG: 255-8168 or lwang@patriot-news.com
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