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"EP11 Confessional Analysis"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"

11-30-04, 00:54 AM (EST)
Click to EMail Krautboy Click to send private message to Krautboy Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
"EP11 Confessional Analysis"
CONFESSIONAL COUNT

ALINTA TRIBE

.....EP1…EP2…EP3…EP4…EP5…EP6…EP7…EP8…EP9…EP10…EP11…TOTAL

Eliza………………6…..3…..3…..5…..2…..0…..2…..3…..4…..5…..4…..37
Chris……………..4…..2…..0…..2…..0…..1…..1…..6…..4…..5…..4…..29
Twila……………..2…..2…..2…..1…..1…..4……2…..4…..4…..1…..2…..25
Scout…………….3…..1…..0……3…..0…..1…..1……2…..2…..3…..1…..17
Julie……………… 1…..1…..0…..2…..1…..3…..2…..2…..2…..0…..0…..14
Ami……………….1…..1…..0…..1…..5…..1…..2…..2…..2…..6…..2…..23

Leeann………….3…..1…..1…..2…..1…..2…..0…..0…..3…..0…..5(Boot)…18
Chad……………..2…..0…..0…..1…..1…..1…..3…..3…..0…..3(Boot)…14
Lea…… ………….4…..0…..2…..2…..2…..5…..2…..7…..5(Boot)…29
Rory………………3…..2…..1…..6…..2…..6…..7…..6(Boot)…33

Merge
John K…………..1…..0…..4…..1…..2…..0…..6(boot)…14
Lisa……………….1…..0…..1…..2…..1…..3(boot)…8
Travis…………….3…..2…..0…..2…..4(boot)…11
Brady…………….4…..0…..0…..5(Boot)…9
Mia………………..3…..1…..4(Boot)…8
John P…………..2…..1…..4(Boot)…7
Dolly……………..1…..4(Boot)…5
Brooke ………….5(Boot)…5


BOOT PATTERN

The editing pattern of “hiding” the next boot in the episode prior to their departure held in EP11 with Leann’s departure. She had zero confessionals in the episode before her boot, followed by the traditional confessional spike during her boot episode.

Julie was hidden in EP11 with zero confessionals for the second week in a row, and would appear to be a boot candidate based on this pattern.


NARRATORS

Chris and Eliza continued their roles as post merge narrators. As we’ve discussed before, this bodes well for them making it to the final four.


CHARACTER DEVELOPMENT

If you recall, Ami had a very significant confessional spike in EP10 with six confessionals. While many of them came while on the reward trip, an effort was obviously made to soften her character somewhat, as she described the children and her wonderful reward experience. This set up her slipping into Leann’s shadow in EP11, perhaps “hiding” her prior to her boot…


CONCLUSIONS:

Julie was “hidden” last week, while Ami slipped into Leann’s shadow, hidden as well as possible with a big target on her back. Both are boot targets based on the classic boot pattern we’ve seen so often this season…

Chris and Eliza are our narrators who, much like Kathy O’brien, should make it to the final four based on that pattern.

Game Logic tells us that Ami and Julie are in trouble now that Leann is gone and their low confessional counts confirm that. Only one can win immunity…



Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis speedyforme 11-30-04 1
   RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis KObrien_fan 11-30-04 2
       RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis Flowerpower 11-30-04 3
           RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis speedyforme 11-30-04 4
 RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis Loquatrix 11-30-04 5

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Messages in this topic

speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

11-30-04, 08:16 AM (EST)
Click to EMail speedyforme Click to send private message to speedyforme Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
1. "RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis"
Nice!

As much as I would love the confessional analysis to be right and Julie goes, I'm far greater excited to see AMI go and hope that it is wrong JUST for this week...

teehee

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

11-30-04, 08:25 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis"
It isn't really wrong if you look at it. What KB was trying to say is that as visible as Ami has been this entire series and lately especially, for CBS to take her down to no confessionals this past week would have been a major shocker, she is integral to the story as a whole whereas Julie is not. So for Ami to only have 2 confessionals this past week, it is like 0 confessionals for the average survivor and could be an indication that she is just as vulnerable if not moreso than Julie.


2004 A S S Trivia Champ

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

11-30-04, 08:34 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis"
Yes, I'd say this analysis supports an Ami boot as much as a Julie one. We know that these two are on the chopping block and it will all come down to immunity. If Ami does not win it, she's toast. Thanks, as always for doing this KB!


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speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"

11-30-04, 04:30 PM (EST)
Click to EMail speedyforme Click to send private message to speedyforme Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
4. "RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis"
OH!

even better

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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"

11-30-04, 07:48 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP11 Confessional Analysis"
Even with Ami's two confessionals to Julie's zero this week, I still find it implausible that anyone but Ami goes this week. In my view, her story was rounded out with the Singing Children episode. As cloying and sentimental as it was, the editing was showing her to be a sympathetic motherly woman in addition to her being the strident Amazonian we'd seen exclusively until that point.

Hmm. Sympathetic motherly woman - the opposite of the warrior male that the island reveres. Goodbye, Ami!

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