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"EP11 Immunity Challenge"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-19-04, 01:39 PM (EST)
 
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"EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
While we're waiting for Immunity Challenge Vidcaps, we can discuss the significance of Immunity this week...Does Chris need to win immunity this week to keep from being booted, or is he less of a threat and a valuable asset around camp now that Chad is gone? Does Ami need to win immunity to keep from being targeted if Eliza joins forces with Chris Twila and Scout? Or is there some other reason Leann would be targeted rather than Ami or Julie? Does Eliza win Immunity, giving her the confidence to split from Ami, Leann and Julie to join forces with Chad/Twila/Scout? Is Leann a logical target regardless of who else wins immunity?
Krautboy
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 02:06 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
It looks like the reward is videos from home - but no real live people and then for the immunity the family members come out - not sure though the previews are up now on CBS
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-19-04, 02:11 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
All very interesting questions to ponder this week!I'll start with the does Chris need to win IC this week....I think not. As I stated in Kingfish's thread regarding how do we get to a Leann boot, I really feel that Jeff foreshadowed exactly what will happen this week as he said, When the ladies begin to realize just where they are on the pecking order, perhaps they will see just how valuable the last man standing is. Bingo, Chris does not need to win the IC this week, as he is far too valuable to the lower on the totem pole women...who I think specifically are Scout/Twila/Julie. I firmly believe that Scout will stay under the protective wing of mother Ami. IMO, there is not a Survivor out there that does not know that Ami is the numero uno, puppet master, mastermind, blah, blah. I think if she were not to win IC, that indeed she would be toast. We know that Scout and Chris realize that she is calling the shots, and they even mentioned last week that Ami has got to go.
I think that Twila is definately on board solidly with Scout's plan...the only reason she backed down last week was that Julie and Leann renegged on their word to vote out Eliza and Twila did not want to even begin to consider the purple rock. I think that Julie renegged as she is too insecure and did'nt want to take the chance with even numbers as well. I think when there are in fact odd numbers next week, Julie will be solidly on board with Scout/Twila/Chris. I honestly can not see Eliza going against Ami. Ami is the sole reason she is still in this game. I can see Eliza being critical to Ami's survival later on. I think it is truely masterful the way that Ami is manipulating everyone. Chad was amazed that she had the power to sway every woman out there to vote for him at TC. It will be masterful how Ami prompts Leann to call out Scout on her approaching the men about going against the all female alliance. I think at some point it will backfire on Leanne. Scout will shed light on the fact that Leanne was fully aware of the plan as they discussed it and that it should come as no surprise to her. Scout is also heard saying something to the effect that it was not her idea...hmmm, wonder whose idea she is implying it is? Leann is going to get caught in the middle and Scout is furious with her for attacking her in front of Ami, and making it appear as though Scout is the one and only betrayer. I say that Ami must win the IC, and then Leann has angered Scout and therefore Twila enough to take their wrath out on Leanne. There is no way that I see Eliza winning the IC next week, nor does she have to. The power struggles are between the alphas of the group now, and she is too far under Ami's wing right now to be a direct target this week. Just my 2 cents...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-19-04, 03:14 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 03:16 PM (EST)>I think that Julie renegged as
>she is too insecure and
>did'nt want to take the
>chance with even numbers as
>well. I think when there
>are in fact odd numbers
>next week, Julie will be
>solidly on board with Scout/Twila/Chris.
>I honestly can not see
>Eliza going against Ami. Ami
>is the sole reason she
>is still in this game.
>I can see Eliza being
>critical to Ami's survival later
>on. FP, here's a quote from a post Brownroach made to you in the "Is Leanne really going this week?" thread. That sounds very reasonable, Fp. *We* didn't see anything to indicate that Leann agreed to the Eliza boot last night, but Scout apparently thought she did. So maybe Leann, despite making all those faces, eventually said she would go along with it, so as not to make waves at the time. ETA: Fp, maybe it is Eliza who tells Ami. After all, if Chris reveals that there was a plan, wouldn't he also reveal the target? Or wouldn't Eliza just assume it was her because Scout was involved? Eliza is so paranoid she'd probably run straight to Ami with the info. I could see that tying in with the misdirection about someone being crushed when trying to solidify a Final 4 position, since "crushed" suggests no one except Eliza to me. Ami can be rather dismissive of Eliza, and may blow her off while resolving to find out what Scout was up to. And if Eliza figures out that even Leann was in on it, she'd freak out..."things are not what they seem..."
While Eliza may not go against Ami, I agree with Brownroach that Eliza is the one who's "crushed" to find out that she's not as secure in her alliance as she thought.
If she finds out Leanne was part of a plan to vote her out, it may be the impetus needed to have her vote with Twila, Scout, and Chris. She probably still doesn't care for Scout, but she's really voting AGAINST Leanne, rather than against Ami or WITH Scout. Julie and Leanne are dance partners,  and Leanne is Julie's ticket to the final four. I don't see Julie being the one to vote against Leanne...
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 05:17 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 05:18 PM (EST)While Eliza may not go against Ami, I agree with Brownroach that Eliza is the one who's "crushed" to find out that she's not as secure in her alliance as she thought. I definately can but this. She probably still doesn't care for Scout, but she's really voting AGAINST Leanne, rather than against Ami or WITH Scout. Well, I think I can buy the whole package. Sounds logical! I can still think of alternative scenarios, but I do see how what you speculate could happen. Well done! ETA: fix typos
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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 02:25 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
Good questions KB..."Does Chris need Immunity?"
I think at the past two TC's, quotes by Probst have been edited in to help prepare us for the Estrogen split. 1)There's always one wildcard that can get someone to the end and that's immunity 2)With only one man left, he may become very valuable.
I might have screwed up the last quote (from last night) but it followed that pattern. So if Chris win's immunity, he not only advances, but also becomes a tie breaker, as the women will have to turn on themselves. Since the merge, The women have Pagaonged the men unanimously, despite promotional misdirection. Chris is next, so YES is the answer to your first question. "Does Ami need immunity?"
No. Every strategy to get Ami out has involved taking one of her alliance members out first, thus making it easier to get rid of her. This would also help explain the Leann boot in episode 11. "Does Eliza need immunity?"
No. Eliza was only a target last time by the guys. She too will play an important role in the estrogen split.
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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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11-19-04, 03:29 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
<<Does Chris need to win immunity this week to keep from being booted, or is he less of a threat and a valuable asset around camp now that Chad is gone?>>Instead of asking if Chris, or if anyone specifically has to win immunity, I think we first need to see how the alliances break down. Chris - all by himself. But he's a floater, and a rebel rouser. We know he's stirring the pot. And he's stirred it up much more than Bahston Rahb could have ever thought of. As a floater, that gives him the ability to make it to F4. And at that point, it is game on! Ami - definitely Leanne, she has even conceded the voting strategy to Leanne instead of dictating. By doing so, she takes some of the target of her back and puts it on Leanne. Leanne - Ami, see above. Julie, by way of the reward challenge. Eliza, basing this on her reaction when Scout went on parading around saying she wanted to get rid of Eliza. Scout - Twila, though she is falling more to the outside of any alliances. Eliza - Leanne, must be a secret unrevealed alliance, sort of what like Clay and Brian had that was never revealed till the end. She thinks she is in with Julie, but Julie is 2-faced and says whatever is necessary to stay in the game. Twila - Scout, but she's really kind of a loner. We already knew this, but now it is affecting her game because she really doesn't like hanging around so much estrogen all the time. Julie - Leanne. Eliza, if it suits her. The final 4, based on what we were told from Leanne's reward challenge, is supposed to be Leanne/Julie/Ami/Twila. The best strategy is to finish the Pagonging, which means that Chris needs to pull off a Shii-Ann immunity win. However, at the point that the game changes, then the target will shift from Chris to whoever ends up on the short end of the stick. Will it be Scout and Twila, based on what Chris says about how they went to him and Chad to force a tie? Or will it be the next move beyond that, meaning the results of Scout's conversation with everyone else? That is the real question. Twila is still the floater,
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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11-19-04, 03:38 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
If Chris wins immunity then Eliza has to panic again. It might be the thing that pushes her over the edge to switch sides. Also, when she thought she was getting voted off before she switched to make sure she stayed - she would vote anyone off so she could stay.
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Baalzimon 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-19-04, 04:03 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
Ami wins Immunity, Leanne is booted because she is the second in command.Next week, Chris wins immunity and Ami is voted out. Then Julie because she was in the girls club. Then twila because she's strong. Then Scout because she's nice. Chris beats Eliza with Sarge, Chad, Twila and Scout.
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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 04:29 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 04:58 PM (EST)Here are KB's caps that he thinks is IC  8
 11
 12
 13
 14
 27
 28
 32
 35
 36
What do you guys think? 
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 04:48 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
The ones that could be IC Caps are 8,11,12,13,14,27,28,32,35,36...
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 05:04 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 05:04 PM (EST)Okay, I'll take a stab at these. We know that the loved ones are going to surprisingly reappear to help out in the IC as well. We see the Survivors lined up in the beginning with some ropes, with knots holding up various colored bags holding something, perhaps. There is a close up of the knots....I'm thinking this is a race to untie the knots of some kind challenge, perhaps to get at what is in the tied up bags. It looks like the survivors have to direct them, could the loved ones be blind-folded....maybe not. There are pics that look not so good of Eliza, Chris, and Julie I think. There is a pic of Ami holding her loved ones hand....the winner, imo....because she has to win!
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-19-04, 05:03 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 05:13 PM (EST)
This shot looks like Ami is rushing forward to greet a Loved one... She either won the RC and is the only one that gets to spend time with their loved one for reward... or this is part of the IC and Ami either won or, is just isolated in this shot as everyone gets to say hello to their loved ones as part of the second "surprise". edited to add:  
Julie as caller is probably from the IC, but the other shot shows Julie wearing a different top...probably back at camp, strategizing about strategy.
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-19-04, 05:28 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
I am convinced, BR, that he does'nt have the IN, because he doesn't win it....Ami will. And as Cat speculates, looks to me like she may be a double winner next episode with RC and IC!Although, I wanted to add that most of the Survivors don't wear the IN once they get back to camp with it, after the IC. That would be sort of like rubbing it in, I suppose. So, as this pic is probably after they've returned back from the IC, but before the TC, as you suggest.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-19-04, 06:48 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
oh, but I think Chris would be delighted to rub it in, just a little bit.I don't know about that, BR. I think it would be wiser for him if he appeared to be less of a threat, one that could wait to be picked off(weaker), rather than one who can not wait to be picked off(stronger)...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-19-04, 05:20 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
In the shot of Ami greeting her loved one, we see the top of Chris's hat. He must be sitting as Ami stands up and moves forward to get a hug.In what we think are the IC shots, we see Chris apparently up on an elevated caller chair, as is Julie. Therefore the shot of happy Ami greeting her loved one is probably the first surprise after the RC. Looks like Ami may win reward.
Krautboy
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-19-04, 05:17 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
"She either won the RC and is the only one that gets to spend time with their loved one for reward...or this is part of the IC and Ami either won or, is just isolated in this shot as everyone gets to say hello to their loved ones as part of the second "surprise"." KB, Ami is dressed differently in these shots. One has to be RC, and one has to be IC. Here's both shots: 
The 2nd shot is the one that looks more like IC to me. Ami has either borrowed Julie's yellow shirt, or she got some new clothing while away on a reward trip. Her hair is also parted and looks like it may have been washed in the recent past. I think you've got it, Ami wins reward, and the first picture is her getting up to greet her visitor.  Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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11-19-04, 05:50 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
Flower, I agree completely, Julie & Ami swapped shirts!
That is Ami's old dirty top that she always wears.That pic: 
Is the top half of this one I think: 
Notice what looks to be Ami's old shirt (on Julie), with Julie's burgundy bikini top slightly showing underneath. Also, Julie always wears her pants like that, slightly unbuttoned or pushed down farther than most would wear them. What's really interesting is that the other hand has to be Scout. Scout is the only one that wears that silver bracelet. That's not a red sleeve you see, it's Scout's buff wrapped around her elbow. Julie looks in shock, doesn't she, like she just made a pact to vote out a friend? Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-04, 09:32 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: The Web Promo Vidcaps are up" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-04 AT 09:52 AM (EST)Here's an earlier pic of Scouts silver bracelet for comparison: 
Note that she wears it on her right arm... ETA: Another shot of Scout's bracelet and a shot of Julie's pants: 
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 06:48 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Hold on KB..." |
"Why can't this be Ami greeting her loved one for the first time BEFORE RC?"Vols, because I think these pics are before the RC: 
Notice that in the background of Twila's pic Ami is dressed the same as in the shot KB is saying is Ami's winner shot. I think pre-RC, they all get the short teasers on the PC screen, not sure if they're told the winner gets their loved one in person or not, maybe they tell them they get more time on the PC. Also notice in these photos that Julie is wearing Chris's hat.
In this photo, which must be IC, Chris is wearing his own hat. 
Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-04, 07:02 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Hold on KB..." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-19-04 AT 07:11 PM (EST)"Then the person in the pic isn't Chris." I agree Vols, it's not Chris, it's Julie. I can see a bit of her dark hair. They could all be sitting down if that is a question type of challenge, you know the 'how much does your loved one know about you' type of challenge. They would all be sitting there, and Jeffy would announce the winner, who would naturally stand up. Like I said above, I'm not sure they tell them what the real reward is or not, maybe they think they're getting more PC chat time or something. That shot makes perfect sense to me. Edited to add this pic of Jeffy, with questions or answers in his hand: 
Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-19-04, 10:10 PM (EST)
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46. "IC: Julie?" |
Thought we were discussing IC... okay, I think Julie wins IC. I keep wondering why they show her picture, but not of her actually doing anything... she doesn't look happy or sad.. and, She's next on the chopping block with Leeann... maybe.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-21-04, 08:38 AM (EST)
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57. "RE: Hold on KB..." |
Krautboy, just wanted to go on record to say that your scenario to me is the most logical. The sequence of the RC events, I think, is right on, as is the speculation that Ami wins. Her standing up very happily is what I think is at the end of the challenge. They have already previewed their loved ones via the computer/web cam, they have already finished the Q and A part of the challenge, as they are all seated, and then at the end, Ami wins, rising elatedly! FWIW.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-19-04, 07:24 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Hold on KB..." |
Sylvester: Thanks for the shot of JP. It seems to confirm the RC is an interactive question and answer type challenge. (Didn't we have the same challenge in S2?)They asked both the loved one and the Survivor the same question and if the answers matched they won? The internet camera we see on top of the monitor allows two way communication, so it may be a team question and answer competition. The winner gets to see their loved ones, (Ami standing up looking happy?) while the others are told they will not get to see their loved ones...until the next day when they are pleasantly surprised at the IC when they all show up...
Krautboy
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pmspml5 3263 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-04, 10:16 AM (EST)
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53. "We are mixing up the RC and IC" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-04 AT 10:19 AM (EST)First RC is in a hut structure if you look at the background and clearly Julie has Chris hat on. RC pictures-notice the hat on Jules and hair braided
IC no hat hair pulled back at first I didnt think the bun was there but it is if you look close at the top when she is yelling and to the left of Ami 
So if Ami had no head piece on the pic above then the pic below must be RC and the person in the hat is Julie I think the hair is very dark and Chris' hair is not that dark. IC pictures 
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suelynn24 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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11-20-04, 03:32 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: Hold on KB..." |
Newbie here, I think you guys are all great by the way...
but I have a point to make, not sure if anyone else caught this, but in this clip isn't julie wearing a yellow tank top like the one ami was wearing when someone sugguests she may have gotten it from winning the RC? not sure if i'm right or not, just wanted to meantion it.
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Nashter 35 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-04, 09:39 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: EP11 Immunity Challenge" |
Unless Snewser is simply messing with us - could there be a double immunity? Could both Ami and Chris get immunity?
This is really the only way I see a Leann boot unless Chris wins and Ami does something masterful at the last minute to target Leann.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 02:32 PM (EST)
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60. "Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Getting back to your original questions for a minute, KB... I tend to think Chris's need for immunity in order to stay in the game is greater than Ami's need for immunity in order for Leann to get the boot. For Leann to get the boot, Chris and at least three of the women have to vote against her. Julie and Ami are unlikely to vote against Leann based on what we know. We also know that Scout was planning an alliance with the men last week, hopefully with Twila's help, to boot Eliza. So Scout and Twila are likely partners for Chris. Eliza is loosely connected to the Ami/Leann/Julie bunch, but primarily to Ami. Leann and Julie discussed booting Eliza early two weeks ago, and last week apparently went along with Scout's plot to boot Eliza (though we didn't see Leann actually agree). So, aside from Chris being isolated as the only male, Eliza is the most rudderless contestant in the game right now. She would be the probable fourth person, and the deciding vote, that gets Leann out of the game. So why Leann and not Ami, if Ami doesn't have immunity? Because Ami has been protecting Eliza. We know from Chad's interviews that Ami went around to all the women last week and convinced them that voting out Eliza was a bad idea. It worked and they all voted for Chad instead. Eliza doesn't have any reason to turn on Ami specifically -- she knows that Ami has been dictating the vote, and Ami did *not* dictate a vote for Eliza last week, or ever. Therefore if Chris comes to her with a plan to vote off Ami, Eliza may agree only if the boot is someone else. Eliza may still feel somewhat close to Julie, and thus would suggest they compromise with Leann. Chris would have no reason not to go along, since at least it would undermine Ami's power. It's possible that Eliza would apprise Julie of the plan so that Julie could vote against Leann as well. Anyway, I don't think Ami needs immunity for Leann to go. On the other hand, I think it would be very easy for at least four women to agree on a Chris boot if he doesn't have immunity. And I think the Chris/Eliza conversation in the previews is probably after the IC, therefore Eliza doesn't win immunity. 
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 02:49 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
I agree BR that Eliza is "rudderless" and would likely be the swing vote.Since she now knows her place with the women, perhaps she manipulates their alliance to ensure her final 4 spot. After being on the chopping block, and the expected confrontation that will occur this week about last week's strategy, she will now realize that Scout and Twila have considered voting with Chris. She may go to Chris and say, "If you can get Twila and Scout to vote with you this week, I will be the fourth to help oust one of the other females, thus keeping you in the game." Chris of course will comply. Then Eliza will go to Ami and say "I am voting this week with Chris, Twila, and Scout to vote out someone. You (Ami) are the number one target, but if I can convince them to vote out Leann instead, will you let me take her place in your final 4 plan?" Ami will have to say "yes" or she knows that she will be next to go. Just a thought. This may be more like what I would do than what actually happens, but it is still likely when trying to explain a "leann before Ami" boot.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 02:49 PM (EST)
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62. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Excellent BR, that's the answer I've been looking for...The JP comment at TC foreshadowed Individual Immunity helping someone get to the end of the game...Chris is apparently for whom the editing was intended. We have pretty good reason to believe he goes far and Immunity this week would help him get there. The episode titles usually have double meaning and this week is no exception. Not only will the contestants be "surprised and surprised again" at the RC and IC, but the viewers will be surprised when Eliza flips and surprised again when Leann goes instead of Ami...
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 03:12 PM (EST)
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63. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Brownroach, I could see how this scenario could play out....I'll concede that it could work this way, Eliza only agreeing to vote with them if the target is not Ami. Still, I'm assuming that Ami will not be privy to the plan, and I think targeting Leann would get Ami in an uproar. If Eliza has any loyalty to Ami at all, she has got to know that betraying her with a Leanne boot, is a severe betrayal, backstabbing. I still have a hard time with this scenario. I'm sure Ami would hold it against Eliza in a big way.Let's examine why I think that Chris will be safe this week, even without the immunity idol. As I have stated, I think what Jeff said at TC last week will indeed come to fruition. The ladies have to start examining where they stand in the pecking order, and when they do, they will realize just how valuable the last man standing is. We KNOW that Scout and Twila had a plan to take out Eliza last week with Chris/Chad. Their first boot choice is definately not going to be Chris. Scout's and Twila's plan failed as they did not have the numbers and were in fear of the dreaded rock. Scout and Twila still know that they have to take out Ami,and or her base. The BEST time to do it is when they have odd numbers, so now all they need is one more. They obviously lobby someone hard and convince them to go with them, this is probably Eliza or Julie. Julie, imo, is playing this game hard, as evidenced by her lying to Twila, she's quick on her feet, she wants to win and I think is playing all of her cards. When she went on the reward with Leann she also weasled her way into a final four with Leann.
We know that she has an F2 pact with Chris. I do not think that Julie's first boot choice is Chris. If I were her, I'd want to end this game with the weakest people out there, to better my shot at making a final run on immunity challenges. Julie can not beat out Ami in this category. If she lines up with Scout/Twila/Chris to start the attack on the Ami alliance then she could have a real shot at making the very end game. If Ami wins immunity, I'd think they would all agree to attack her strongest ally, Leann. Eliza is also on the outskirts of the Ami alliance and she knows it. She hates Scout/Twila as she's informed that they were going to vote her out last week at TC. Chris may make a desparate plea with her to convince her to vote with them, I just do not see Eliza as thinking of Chris as the most logical boot choice at this point either. Let's say that Chris wins immunity and Ami does not. I think Chris/Twila/Scout would be gunning for her big time, and I also think that they could get either Julie or Eliza on board....Just my 2 cents. An Ami IC win seems just so much more logical to me.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 04:52 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-04 AT 04:59 PM (EST)I think what Jeff said at TC last week will indeed come to fruition. The ladies have to start examining where they stand in the pecking order, and when they do, they will realize just how valuable the last man standing is. FP, if Chris doesn't have immunity, he can be either valuable or disposable. If an alliance of four women can coalesce and agree to vote him out, he's disposable to them. Judging from what happened last week after there was discussion of booting a woman, I think there would easily be four women willing to dump him. So Jeff's words wouldn't be prophetic in that case. However, if Chris has immunity he immediately becomes a valuable commodity to any woman who thinks she is first on the chopping block. And we've been told time and again that this is Eliza. Eliza should be primed to make a move if she feels certain she is next to go. Chris telling Eliza "this is how you can stay" sounds like she is in imminent danger and he is not. It would be rather cocky of him to phrase it that way if there was a good chance of his getting the boot, imo. My sense is that he is telling her, either you vote with us or you are going home, because he knows it to be true.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 05:07 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-04 AT 05:08 PM (EST)BR, I totally understand your logic....just don't know if I'm on board with it, that's all..... Here's another vidcap that I found over at the Mess Hall: 
Crocophile over at Sucks posted that he can see Chris with the torch in this picture, and their packs are seen on the rocks. He is speculating that this is right before they leave for TC...and there is no IN seen on Chris or Eliza... Maybe CAT can work her enlargement powers with this cap, as I do not see any torch in Chris' hands...or is that the top of his torch just off/in front of his left shoulder?
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 06:27 PM (EST)
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70. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-04 AT 07:03 PM (EST)"Maybe CAT can work her enlargement powers with this cap, as I do not see any torch in Chris' hands...or is that the top of his torch just off/in front of his left shoulder?" Ask & ye shall receive FP, lol. 
I blew up the portion of just Chris & Eliza. Chris is holding his torch, I put an arrow in to point it out. I see what some are saying might be their bags, not sure yet, still playing with that part of the photo. I'll add it in here if I can get it to show more clearly. Edited to add this pic. This is a blow-up of the area that some think are bags ready for TC. I'm not so sure, and I've put these in negative, darkened, lightened, etc. with no firm conclusion. Everyone can see what they think. 
A couple of things I do notice in the top pic is that I cannot see Eliza's buff, and Chris has a white band on his neck. I'm playing with that also, will update if I come up with anything. Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 07:59 PM (EST)
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72. "Preparing for TC?" |
It does indeed look like Chris is carrying his torch...but what's to say they're not just starting to gather their stuff?Eliza always carrys her bag to TC and yet she hasn't grabbed it yet. They haven't put their buffs on yet and Chris hasn't put on the Immunity Necklace yet. If this shot is taken in the timeframe before TC, it's probably very early in the process of getting ready to go. Yes, Chris appears to be holding a torch...beyond that it's inconclusive.
Krautboy
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 04:53 PM (EST)
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65. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
BR, Your plan is the most logical I've seen yet, if Leanne's eviction this week is a given.I felt a little uncomfortable with a few points however; >Leann and Julie discussed
>booting Eliza early two weeks
>ago, and last week apparently
>went along with Scout's plot
>to boot Eliza (though we
>didn't see Leann actually agree). Point of fact, LeAnns facial expressions were indicative of someone that was overhearing something she was uncomfortable with. Either the fact that the women present were discussing doing something other than Ami's plan (My guess), or she was uncomfortable with the Eliza boot itself. In any case, I didn't get the feeling that she ever agreed to the Eliza boot then. At least according to what they showed us.
>
>So, aside from Chris being isolated
>as the only male, Eliza
>is the most rudderless contestant
>in the game right now.
>
Somehow he also has to get Twilla onboard too. IMO Twilla is as rudderless as Eliza. Eliza is probably more panic prone which would make her a better target for Chris, but he also has to manage Twilla while not alienating Eliza, and Scout without alienating Eliza, and Eliza without alienating Scout. To me, thats a pretty big set of problems. With out Immunity, Chris has to be toast.
>Therefore if Chris
>comes to her with a
>plan to vote off Ami,
>Eliza may agree only if
>the boot is someone else.
>
>
>Eliza may still feel somewhat close
>to Julie, and thus would
>suggest they compromise with Leann. This is the point that makes me the most uncomfortable. I just cannot believe that Eliza would be making that kind of deal, Don't vote Ami because she helped me last week, don't vote Julie because we were Bowheads together, vote Leanne instead. I just don't think that she would care who goes, as long as Scout is off the table and as long as it's not her. And the big target is Ami.
Chris will propose a deal, the target should be Ami, Eliza will say yes, I'll do it, or no I won't. >Anyway, I don't think Ami needs
>immunity for Leann to go.
> On the other hand,
>I think it would be
>very easy for at least
>four women to agree on
>a Chris boot if he
>doesn't have immunity. Both scenarios are very possible, and these are the simplest, most obvious scenarios. Whoever gets immunity, the other goes, so each needs immunity equally. However, the joker could be if neither wins immunity. They would be each scrambling and working the others as hard as they can. And Leanne might become collateral damage. Somehow.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 05:10 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Chris will propose a deal, the target should be Ami, Eliza will say yes, I'll do it, or no I won't.Eliza might have some leverage here. If she goes back to Ami and rats out Chris's offer of a deal, she could persuade Ami/Leann/Julie to vote for one of Scout or Twila, thereby screwing up Chris's future plans. Though she may not have time to think of that and threaten Chris with it. But if Eliza says she would prefer Leann to go first, I don't think Chris would force the issue. Whatever it takes to get Eliza on his side and get one of the power duo axed...
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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sylvester 555 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 05:40 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Maybe Chris isn't the one making the deal? It could also be Eliza coming to Chris. For this scenario I would think Chris would have won immunity.Eliza sees the handwriting on the wall if Chris wins IC. She knows she got 2 votes last week, and Chris rats out Twila & Scout, so she probably feels the target on her this week. She could see Chris as the best one to go to to try to work a deal. Ami/Leann/Julie may rat her out to the others, and she probably doesn't trust Scout/Twila. I think it makes sense for her to approach Chris. Chris says "this is how you can stay", trying to get Eliza to make an actual alliance with him/Scout/Twila by promising her a final 4 spot in return for her vote to break the Ami alliance. Leann may do something stupid this episode to get herself booted before Ami. It looks like she & Ami are ticking off both Scout & Twila pretty good. Maybe Leann does most of the talking? Sylvester (just call me CAT)
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 09:25 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Eliza would have leverage, no doubt. I mean, of all the current cast, Chris has the least chance of survival, and I assume he would realize it, giving anyone that cares to use it leverage over him. He's probably wiley enough to realize he can use that to his advantage. And Eliza may be on her game enough to realize it also. And to realize that her best chance is, as you and others suggest, is to unite with Scout and twila and CHris to vote off one of the power girls. The weak point, as I see it, is why, if she has that coalition together, would she really care whether which one of the other three go. IF Chris wants Ami out, and Scout wants Ami out(if she can't get Eliza out) why in the world would she continue to insist on Leanne? Of the three both Ami and Julie present more competition at F4/F2. She and /or Chris would have to be stretched pretty thin just figuring all this out and getting twilla and Scout on board. Thinking that they might also work on them to focus on someone other than Ami is a bit ambitious and pointless. Not to say there isn't logic to it, Eliza very well could have sufficient leverage to deter Chris from targeting Ami or Julie. It's harder to see how she could deter Scout from AMI, and it's difficult to see what could really motivate her to do so. Surely she realizes that sooner or later everyone has to go except one person if she is to get to F2. I know, we've seen misplaced loyalty or poor decisions cause some pretty stupid game moves, and anything is possible.
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Nashter 35 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 09:31 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
All I can say is that if Chris doesn't win immunity and survives then in my estimation he deserves FF and he deserves the $1 million. I still have my bets on Chris having an immunity run.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-04, 11:39 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
>
>The weak point, as I see
>it, is why, if she
>has that coalition together, would
>she really care whether which
>one of the other three
>go. IF Chris wants Ami
>out, and Scout wants Ami
>out(if she can't get Eliza
>out) why in the world
>would she continue to insist
>on Leanne? Ami has protected Eliza on several occasions, with last week being the most recent. Everyone was ready to vote out Eliza and
Ami turned things around for her and convinced the women to vote Chad. Eliza must feel some loyalty to Ami or at least feels that Ami is less likely to betray her than Leann or Julie. In the previews we see both Eliza and Scout in confrontational situations with Leann. Eliza will lobby for Leann to go and Scout will go along...not to vote with Eliza, but to vote against Leann. Chris doesn't care who it is, since he has F2 alliances with everyone...
Krautboy
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Capn2patch 2785 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 00:52 AM (EST)
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76. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
>Chris doesn't care who it is, since he has F2 alliances with everyone...Let's not forget that Ami is a strong competitor and is an immunity threat - the others are aware of it. ->Both Chris and Scout have verbally pointed to Ami as the ringleader and said she had to go.
->Eliza was protected last week by Ami & Leann so that they would maintain a numerical advantage over the other three (Scout, Twila, Chris).
->Chris and Scout recognized what the pecking order was within the AWA a few ep's back. Eliza, as was painfully obvious also realized she was at the bottom (along with Scout). Chris's sell to Eliza to get her on board won't be what a great bunch Scout and Twila are but rather a chance to get to the F4 by booting Ami, Leann and Julie vs her unsure stature in Ami's group. = If Scout and Chris had the numbers, 4 votes vs three, wouldn't they logically target Ami unless she was somehow protected? As many of you have brought up, JP's quote of II carrying someone is correct. Just happens to be someone else. Ami will be protected at TC so the SECT alliance will target Leann, her closest mate. 
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 10:39 AM (EST)
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78. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Well in the vidcap that Fp posted, I'd have to say that Chris is not wearing the necklace, and since he has a torch they must be preparing for TC. As KB points out this could be at the beginning of the departure preparations, since neither is carrying or wearing any bags yet, though I would think the torch would be the last thing someone would grab before leaving. So I don't know what it means.I guess it all comes down to Eliza. If she is sufficiently miffed from the cumulative impact of being taken out of the RC early by Scout two weeks ago and then the plot against her last week, she may decide to plan a power play whether Chris is immune or not. That still leaves the question of whether Ami needs immunity for Leann to get the boot. If it's Eliza instead of Chris that's driving the derailment train, as sylvester suggested above, it would seem that she gets to call the target. She tends to target people for personal reasons rather than because of their general threat factor, so again I just don't see her being really keen on booting Ami first. And if Ami wins the RC (okay we don't know this, but...), would she perhaps be self-conscious about winning the IC too, with the loved ones there? She does realize that she's seen as a strong challenge threat but she won't feel like a target for other reasons, so she might sort of accidentally let someone else win it. I also think Julie could be the IC winner. All the solo shots at the IC are of Chris, Ami, and Julie. There are the two comparable shots of Chris and Julie directing their loved ones, and then that shot of Chris looking downward, perhaps disappointed. Maybe he and Julie are the last two in competition and Julie pulls out the win.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 01:17 PM (EST)
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80. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-04 AT 01:19 PM (EST)Now I am happy that you are discussing other alternatives than a Chris must win the IC! If it's Eliza instead of Chris that's driving the derailment train, as Sylvester suggested above, it would seem that she gets to call the target. Totally agree with this statement and I can definately see Eliza targeting Leann over Julie and Ami, even if Ami does not get the IN, especially if somehow it is inferred by someone that Leann was privy to the plan to knock out Eliza last episode. Also I think Ami WAS closer to Julie in the beginning, and now all of a sudden, Leann has taken a fancy to Julie, threatening Eliza's place in the F4. Knocking out Leann would definately find her closer to the F2. And if Ami wins the RC, would she perhaps be self conscience about winning the IC too, with the loved one's there? She does realize that she is seen as a strong challenge threat but she won't feel like a target for other reasons, so she might sort of accidentally let someone else win it. You are assuming that she does win the RC, what if she does not? At any rate, last week Ami was quoted as not trusting in the ladies any more, which was the first time she has shown any vulnerability at all. I know she's a smart girl, and I would think that she's very aware of how fragile the all women's alliance is right now, and I would think that she knows that she is probably coming across as the most threatening of all out there. I would think that any one of the Survivors at this point in the game, would try as hard as they could to get that IC. Just can't see Ami, trying on purpose not to win it, or sort of accidentally letting someone else win it. I also think Julie could be the IC winner. Definately agree with this statement, Julie could indeed be the winner. Remember last week when they showed all of the survivors on their poles at the start of the challenge, and Twila was seen slipping early on, and most of us thought that that was a clear sign that she would be one of the first one's out....misdirection, and she wins!
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RyrieRae 416 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-04, 10:12 AM (EST)
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96. "RE: Chris or Ami or someone else?" |
Agreed, I don't think Ami is going to "accidentally let someone else" win the IC. Not with only one guy left in the game, who could easily be the one who could win. If there were two or more guys left, likely, but not with just one.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 02:12 PM (EST)
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82. "CBS Eyemail" |
I don't have the capability to pull the photo over, but in the CBS Eyemail, there is a picture of a bunch of the Survivors sitting around camp, and a guy sitting next to Ami that is unrecognizable. I'm guessing its possibly the family member of the RC Challenge winner....Can any one pull the pic from the eyemail over?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 02:43 PM (EST)
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84. "RE: CBS Eyemail" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-04 AT 02:59 PM (EST)Cowboy, we need Veruca Salt, she can pull those eyemails up! For now, I found 3 more pics courtesy of SurvivorFever: 
ETA: Cowboy, if you tell me where you saw the eyemail, perhaps I could go and get it....
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-04, 09:39 AM (EST)
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95. "RE: Here's your EyeMail" |
Well Cowboy, in answer to your question regarding the eyemail, I think that that is Leann sitting next to Ami, although she is looking kind of "guyish"! If emydi's theory were to apply, than Chris would be toast...which IMO, is still a valid option.As for the whitish thing seen on Chris' back as he's walking with his torch, I think it appears to be white cloth material of some kind, probably to hold his pony tail, as you have suggested, in trouble! On the IN, the whitish appearing things along the necklace are hard shells.
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volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 03:01 PM (EST)
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85. "Webcam pics still irk me!" |
These pics are still irking me!I have been racking my brain trying to come up with a way of implementing the Webcam pics with what is being discussed and I can't! The only way I think they fit in is this way. I think the RC starts with the Webcam pics as we have been shown. I think each of the survivors will get a certain amount of time to spend with their loved one (like 30 seconds)! As someone else has mentioned the Webcam allows two-way communication. The challenge is one in which they are asked questions and the survivor that matches the most questions with their loved one wins. The winner of the RC will win a longer amount of time to spend with their loved one on the Webcam! In the past, they always tease the family members with them as they bring into view. Why tease them with a Webcam and then bring ONE family member out. The surivivors would know that each of them had a representative there, if that were the case. Then, they go to IC and they bring out the family members and they tease them with the loved one as they walk into view. The winner of the IC would then get to spend more time with their loved one in person. I guess what I am saying is that there is no explanation or reason to tease them with a Webcam if the loved ones are there. Just tease them with the loved ones at the first of the challenge.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 03:05 PM (EST)
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86. "RE: Webcam pics still irk me!" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-04 AT 03:07 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 11-23-04 AT 03:05 PM (EST) Vols: You've pretty much got it, go see Krautboy's scenario at post number 54 here.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-04, 05:17 PM (EST)
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92. "RE: Webcam pics still irk me!" |
But the misdirection says:"The Survivors are surprised by an emotional reunion with their loved ones. But only one castaway gets quality time with their loved one." If they don't see the loved ones until the IC, when would the quality time possibly happen? I think KB's theory makes sense: the family members are brought out one by one after the webcam teasers but before the RC is conducted. This is what the contestants sitting on the bench are reacting to. They may or may not be allowed to have brief contact with their loved one to say hello (or, later, goodbye). One person then gets a day or however much time to spend with their loved one.
Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.
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