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"Using hindsight in advance (why I think Sarge goes this week)"
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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11-10-04, 01:17 PM (EST)
 
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"Using hindsight in advance (why I think Sarge goes this week)" |
One thing MB does just about every show of every season is highlight the bootee in the first 15 minutes of the episode. Usually, he lays the groudwork for the eventual boot duing that segment, then we have a half hour of challenges and then we have 15 minutes spent trying to misdirect us from the boot that was given to us earlier in the show.Take last week for example...in the first 15 minutes we saw Rory saying how much he disliked Yassur and how he couldn't wait to get back to the guys. Well, looking back it is obvious that MB was showing us Rory's downfall, that being that even after a week with Yassur he hadn't been able to penetrate their alliance. Also, MB showed us some irony as he likes to do, that being that Rory couldn't wait for a merge when as it turned out the merge ended up killing him in the game. So, that brings us to this week. What do we see in the previews....Sarge railing about how he hates the women and hates the camp. To me, this fits into the type of footage and storyline that we typically see in the beginning of the episode...the post-boot, pre-RC, wrong side of the power fence bitterness confessionals we typically get each week. If this footage is indeed before the RC I think this is the part of the show where MB is setting up the boot....so with that in mind, it looks like Sarge is good as gone this week.
Feel free to use this theory in the spoiling future. I like to call it the "Omnipotent Fabulous Shakes" theory, or OFS Theory for short 
So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04
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pinchy 200 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-10-04, 02:40 PM (EST)
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4. "another hindsight theory" |
here's one that fits this week's boot (if it's Sarge). I've only "tested" it once: On the Survivor live show following each weeks boot, the booted off survivor (in this case JK) really talks up NOT the following week's boot, but two weeks in advance. I noticed in JK's interview that he really had great things to say about Sarge (what a nice guy he is, etc.) This could serve CBS to subliminally prep the audience for an upcoming boot, but not be too obvious about the next boot. Anyone else notice a similar pattern with other bootees on SLive? It's a lot harder to document than the OFS theory, but could reinforce the evidence.
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-10-04, 07:04 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Using hindsight in advance (why I think Sarge goes this week)" |
Just helping out here. It's a good sounding theory, but OFS has no pizzazz. Doesn’t even spell anything. So here you go, no charge. No thanks necessary, my community service (one hour down, about a thousand to go). The KINky Great FIfiteen minute SHakes hindsight theory - KINGFISH. Hey that’s a natural, just falls into place, and rolls off the tongue. Seriously, not a bad sounding theory, reasonable, worth keeping tabs on. We have to guess from the promos who will be featured in the first fifteen minutes of the show. Have the past promos had a reasonably specific indication as to who will be featured often enough to make this a reliable indicator? Hopefully someone will go back into the archives to check it out for % accuracy. And it looks like you have a thread to post every week. But do it early, others seem to think their guess is the word of God so they wait till to late for a real debate. I know, there are or have been serious spoilers, but this year, they're not so reliable, so why not just out it and don't worry about the sheep. But EVERYONE will want to know who the KINGFISH theory points to each week. I subscribe to the B-ITCH TOSS theory this week, but after this week (and AMI is out the door), I will feel compelled to debate Shakes well named KINGFISH theory. The KINGFISH theory, that is.
(Sorry OFG, I wasn't around when you needed me, but I can help Shakes).
I’m comfy and cozy in my asbestos underwear.
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alwaysintruble1 2878 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-11-04, 00:32 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Using hindsight in advance (why I think Sarge goes this week)" |
I got to thinking and remembered something that was brought up early in the show.http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/5416.shtml There was talk of a family visit spoil, around the F6 time, and Sarge was mentioned in this. Does this mean he's safe this week, or was this just a rumor and never proved? Not posting this here to disagree with shakes (lurked long enough to not to do that for a while, if at all), just thought the thread had Sarge's name in it and would be a good spot 
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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11-11-04, 01:01 AM (EST)
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14. "good question, but....." |
>There was talk of a family
>visit spoil, around the F6
>time, and Sarge was mentioned
>in this. Does this
>mean he's safe this week,
>or was this just a
>rumor and never proved?
....that spoiler is BS. As of now there are NO family visit spoilers for ANYONE. The only thing that even resembles a family visit spoiler is Snewser saying that Eliza's boyfriend does NOT visit, which doesn't preclude someone else visiting Eliza so you can't really take anything from it.
So don't take the simple fact that I think Shakes is godlike to mean that I think he isn't an ass. -Samiam 10/12/04
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-11-04, 10:04 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: good question, but....." |
OK, I concede. Besides, it is hard work being me. I mean being a Theory Credit hijacker. So the KINGFISH theory is shelved for now.It’s the Shakes Theory, or the Shakes HIndsight Theory. OK, that won’t fly. It’s the Shakes Theory, or the OFS or the OFS-SIS. And if we are forced to live without Pizzazz, so what. By all of these theories, and the OFG indicator (not leaving you out of this) Sarge is toast. And by all of these theories Ami is safe. Not counting the superimpositions, she has by my count, exactly three solo caps out of nearly a hundred and thirty this week. She is way way not featured. Unless the first portion of the show is laid out differently than the promos suggest. So I’m back to my B-ITCH TOSS theory, because it’s the best strategic move by the bloc with the least self imposed constraints, and I’m going to be hardheaded enough to believe (hope is a better word here) that they see it and are strong enough to do it. All it takes is for at least two of the three (Twilla - one of her many contradictory promises was that she would, Eliza - her place in the hens pecking order and her beef with Scout?, and Julie) to vote with the men, so it’s not actually impossible.
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ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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11-11-04, 09:43 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Using hindsight in advance (why I think Sarge goes this week)" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-11-04 AT 09:46 AM (EST)I totally agree with shakes. I noticed this editing style as I was watching America's Next Top Model 2 too. Dank... I should've posted my theory here then I could claim this as the SMTW theory . With the exception of episode 1, where everyone was being freshly introduced, this theory holds up most of the time: Ep. 2: Dolly boot
1st 15 minutes, Dolly was highlighted for crying when she had to eat the bad plaintain. Ep. 3: Mia and JP boots
1st 15 minutes, Mia quarreling with Twila.
(And this is the exception to the rule) Rory was the one highlighted at Lopevi when Sarge complained that he didn't do a lot of physical work. Ep. 4: Brady boot
Brady highlighted when he was shown trying to fish to buy himself more time on the island Ep. 5: Travis boot
Travis misses his family. Ep. 6: Lisa boot
(Another exception) Rory's highlighted where he said he doesn't want to slave around camp if he has no chance to survive the next TC. Ep. 7: John K boot
Chad complained that John K was lazy. Ep. 8: Rory boot
Rory complaining about the women's alliance.
Hence I'd say the theory's good but there are always exceptions, especially when the bootee's vulnerability had been discussed in previous episodes. Eg. for JP, his boot had already been discussed earlier when he asked Travis about his position at Lopevi. For Lisa's boot, I guess it was a surprise to us all coz I think the boot was a surprise to the editors as well. Lisa wasn't really vulnerable in previous episodes so the editors obviously couldn't have painted Lisa's vulnerability earlier. And since Lisa's boot seems to have stemmed from her manioc comment just hours before Tribal Council, the editors couldn't have portrayed her as being vulnerable earlier in the day either since her position had been pretty secure then.
Sarge seems to be the boot highlight this week with him being sick of the loving that's going on in the tribe. I think the editors have to use this editing technique of simplifying the bootee to the general audience who're just casual Survivor viewers. They need a simple reason to know why Sarge is targetted before Chris or Chad, and this is one of the simple reasons that the editors give them. Not so much the true reason (because he's a leader of the men) but a simple reason. The true reason is plain and simple to us hardcore Survivor fans but most casual viewers'd miss it because they don't analyze and think about the show like we do. But they'd somehow get it when they think, "oh... Sarge didn't like the environment more than Chad and Chris so that's why they boot him first". We'll see if this theory holds up in a few hours time.
Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)
Hail the purple rock! Hallelujah..... Oh glory!
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kingfish 20752 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-11-04, 10:29 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Using hindsight in advance (why I think Sarge goes this week)" |
Nice Try with the SMTW thing, but theory credit hijacking is MY thing. However I am available for consulting. And again, no Pizzazz, should spell a catchy and/or appropos acronym like BALLS, or KINGFISH (Sorry that just slipped in), or PIG, or SEXWAR, or even someting like the ROMBER theory.But it's good work analyzing this Survivor, and instructive I think, Thanks. One small thing, the editors are editing all the spisodes after all the location film/video has been shot, not on a week to week basis as in, say, Big Brother. So they knew before they edited the first episode of this Survivor when Lisa was to be booted. FOr example, this weeks' episode was shot in July. So the only constraint in their portrayal of Lisa was if they failed to shoot enough video and didn't have anything to work with. Which, although possible, is not probably becauase as pros, they shoot hours of video for each minute they actually use. The Sarge explaination/analysis is apt I think.
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