|
|
|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
|
"Current alliances from ep5 to ep6"
JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
|
10-15-04, 12:44 PM (EST)
 
  |
|
"Current alliances from ep5 to ep6" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-04 AT 12:47 PM (EST)What do we see as current alliances? We know that the guys and girls are fairly tight. Before the swap we had: The fat 5 (minus Travis now) – Lea, Chris, Rory, Chad And John was on the outside. Now with the swap, John is, at least temporarily, with the guys. But he knows he’s on the outside, so he could easily align with Julie to form a pretty person alliance. But that’s only 2 votes, and even with Twila that would only be 3 thus creating a tie, which we can almost rest assured anymore that we will not see any more ties. Besides that, Twila seems more than happy to be with the guys, possibly even allowing for the possibility of her swapping. The burly girls – Ami, Leanne, Scout, Twila Lisa, Eliza, and Julie were on the outside of that alliance. Lisa is also temporarily in the girls alliance, and Rory is on the outside. But Rory is definitely playing his cards well, making sure that no work gets done by Rory unless he is promised to stick around. That Rory may not be very socially savvy, but he is a game player! So now with the new tribes we have: Lopevi: Lea, Chris, Chad, John K, Twila, Julie Yasur: Ami, Leanne, Scout, Lisa, Eliza, Rory On Lopevi, there are 3 of the Fat 5 left. With the Fat 5, Rory may have been abandoned now that he is on Yasur, but if he makes the merge, he will be the 4th man in that alliance. John can stick around by voting with the guys to vote out a girl. But more than likely, he may be seen as a traitor. He has learned the girls’ secrets, but we don’t know how much he has told the guys. He could easily be sacrificed, though, as that information just isn’t as important now that there has been a swap. The fat 5 don’t need him, and probably don’t trust him. He has also been shown to be lazy. JK’s only chance is, as stated above, to align with Julie and Twila. The girls know that they are next in line. (Especially once they see that Travis is gone, they will know that the girls are sticking together, so the guys probably will also.) Their only hope is to find out who is on the outside with the guys. Once they realize that it is John, then their best move is to vote with the fat 3 to vote out John. Lisa and Eliza are, separately, still on the outside of the girls’ alliance. If Rory plays his cards right, which it looks like he may, then one of those 2 is next to go for Yasur. Both Eliza and Lisa have been trying to play both sides. Lisa, though, was trying to talk to Bubba about his boot. She may try to do the same for Rory’s boot, only this may bite her in the butt. If she tries to put herself in the position of being in the middle, maybe being the deciding vote like Dolly, then she may be found out and get booted instead. (Doesn’t anyone remember Christy from S6 trying to play the middle???) I think Lisa and John are the next boots from their tribes. That gets us to the merge, with the women up 6-4. Twila will be a MAJOR swing vote, though I think she knows that her best bet is with the women, particularly looking at the numbers. If the enter 5-5, then it might pay for her to swap, but not if the numbers are down. Eliza may want to defect to go with the guys, but that only puts her in a VERY vulnerable position. Since she hasn’t spent any time with the guys except for Rory, she doesn’t have any ties. The guys have no reason to trust her. So her best move is to stay with the women and pray that something starts to divide the women. Her destiny, though, may be to be booted after the family visit at final 6. Any other insights or thoughts regarding the current alliances as they stand leaving ep 5 and going into ep 6?
|
|
|
Top |
| |
Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
10-15-04, 01:22 PM (EST)
|
|
1. "RE: Current alliances from ep5 to ep6" |
"The fat 5 don’t need him, and probably don’t trust him."I disagree. At this point, they need him since Travis is gone. They'll boot Julie next if they go to Tribal Council since Twila and Sarge have bonded. John K. is a decent player. As you say, if he sides with the two women, that will only force a tie. It'd be smarter to stick with the men at this point. However, I think it likely that John K. will get booted if Lopevi loses a second TC before the merge. At that point, Sarge will feel better about Twila than John K. Plus, they know if John K. gets to the merge, he'll be a IC threat. So if Lopevi goes to TC in the next two episodes, Julie and John K. are my picks in that order. Corvis
|
|
|
Top |
| |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
10-15-04, 03:57 PM (EST)
|
|
4. "Thoughts about Yasur alliances" |
I'm trying to figure out how Rory could survive another Tribal Council. We know Scout likes him. We know Eliza didn't want to boot the men because of their strength. But they'd still need one more vote to make it happen.Ami - She will not vote out a woman before a man. She made that very clear last episode and I can't see her changing her mind now. No matter how great Rory's speech is. Scout will likely work on her, but I just don't see it happening. Lisa - Presumedly she is the target of the Rory-Scout-Eliza tentative alliance. So they won't be pulling her in as the fourth vote. However, if Ami and Leann say no, it might be a good idea to go to her with a plan to vote out Leann or Ami. But I don't think this will happen because Scout won't want to betray Ami and Leann. And Lisa won't trust Eliza. Leann - Who knows what Leann will do? She has appeared hesitant when voting and choosing sides. She could make the decision to side with the new group, but I kind of doubt it. Still, I think Leann switching sides is the most likely possibility if you're in the Lisa goes camp. They've got to have four votes before they try the save Rory plan. I do not think we'll see Scout risk a tie just to keep Rory in the game. Corvis
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
oncebitten 145 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
|
10-15-04, 06:36 PM (EST)
|
|
15. "RE: Thoughts about Yasur alliances" |
I agree that Ami is the leader b/c when asked "one leader", Ami is the one that spoke up and said oh that is Scout.
And regarding Chris, Bubba wanted to talk to him not Sarge at the IC.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
caveman 91 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
10-15-04, 05:31 PM (EST)
|
|
12. "RE: Thoughts about Yasur alliances" |
JohnI think you have it about right on the alliances, but I think Chris, Lea and Chad will be planning to reconstitute the fat five upon merge. When they discover that Travis is gone they'll have to identify a new fifth. I'm guessing they are stupid enough to believe that Rory will rejoin them after the merge (should he survive that long) and if Twila gives the men the impression she wants to join the fat five, they might be foolish enough to boot John. I doubt they will ever trust John. Not because of anything John did to them, but simply because he is young, fit, bright and has been the victim of the fat five in the past. If Yasur goes to Tribal Council again next week and boots Lisa Lopevi will most definitely consider booting John as soon as they have to cut a player. On the other hand, if Yasur goes to TC next week and boots Rory, or if Lopevi has to go to TC next, Lopevi would be fools to boot John before Julie. Julie is neither fat nor male, so she is their safest first boot should they have to kick next. I can't imagine Lopevi risking going into the merge 7 men against 3 women. Caveman
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
bobscure 217 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
|
10-16-04, 00:23 AM (EST)
|
|
16. "RE: Thoughts about Yasur alliances" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-04 AT 10:26 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 10-16-04 AT 00:45 AM (EST) I agree with BR. Spoiling aside, what the average viewer has seen in the last 3 episodes is Lisa switching her vote from young to old, Lisa roiling Eliza, Lisa not being picked by the wise Scout to be on either tribe, Lisa annoying Ami. Both challenges look physical and I'm guessing there are only so many pigs a person can catch before becoming exhausted no matter how much practice they may have. That said, if Rory's speech is convincing, who will be shocked and teary over Lisa's departure next week? ETA: The point being that Lisa doesn't have to do much to get voted out. JK may be perceived as a necessary evil for the moment and JB is just starting to work people's nerves. I think that was the problem with the mixed up Bubba/Lisa boot. Bubba had already been proven to be something of a detriment due to his poor game play and weakness in challenges so seemed set up to be the next boot. The same thing has now been done with Lisa which is why I think she's next. Besides, Lopevi seems too happy for it to be them this week...
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
ScurvyDawg 58 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
10-16-04, 02:31 AM (EST)
|
|
17. "RE: Thoughts about Yasur alliances" |
I suspect Scout is the actual leader on Yasur. When Bubba was asking Ami to let him know if he was going to be booted, she replied that she didn't do that and besides she would have to find out what the boss wanted. I think the boss she was referring to was Scout. Scout's bio is pretty impressive, she's been CEO of her own consulting company and a former university professor. She seems to have the kind of background that would make her the natural leader of Yasur.Regarding next week's boot, don't overlook John K. At the waterfall John K stated that he felt safer and was happy now that the guys alliance was “broken”. This indicates that John K misunderstands the balance of power on Lopevi and overestimates the relative security of his position. It sounds like he wants to distance himself from the other guys. On the other hand, Julie and Twila both are attempting to bond with the guys, they are not trying to set up an alliance in opposition to the guys. For example, At the waterfall Julie stated that she was worried the guys might boot her and Twila, therefore they were both working at bonding with the guys. Also tt the waterfall, Twila stated that she felt she fit in better with the guys and she felt she had more in common with them such as Chris working for the highway department. Therefore, John K is probably going to be the odd guy out. It seems to be a recurring theme in Survivor that when someone overestimates their power or security, they typically get booted during that episode or the following episode. I suspect Lisa doesn't get booted until the week after John K goes. The Lisa boot is similar to a volcano slowly building towards an eruption. This past week we felt the first small rumblings when Eliza and Scout both gave indications that they each might boot a woman before booting Rory. Eliza was shown making a case for keeping both Bubba and Rory since they would be needed at the ICs. Then at TC Scout stated that Rory and Bubba were two of the three guys that she wanted to play the game with. On the other side of the divide we heard Ami state that she wants to remain 5 women strong. The buildup will include Rory giving his fireside chat and probably the reactions of the women to Rory's chat. Rory gives his speech before the IC (and possibly before RC), so there's plenty of time for JP to fit in the Yasur buildup before showing us John K being disposed of in a relatively short TC segment. John K's arc is pretty much over, so there isn't much for JP to show us about him, therefore JP will fill-in the time with the Yasur buildup.
|
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
