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Great analysis Emydie, but I disagree with the conclusion that John K ends up on Lopevi. If John K is with Lopevi, there is no logical scenario where both John K and Julie get booted from Lopevi pre-merge.
Based on Snewser’s memo Julie gets booted immediately pre-merge, therefore John K would have to be booted sometime before Julie. For John K to be booted there would probably be a tie vote between Julie/Twila/Scout and JohnK/Chris/Sarge with the tiebreaker going to the women. But, once John K is booted how would Julie get booted?? For that to happen either Twila or Scout would have to shift alliances and vote with Chris/Sarge to boot Julie. But why would Twila or Scout shift alliances at this time when only a week before they risked a 50/50 vote to boot off JohnK? Additionally, prior to the Julie boot the women would have an overall 6 to 4 advantage in numbers, although since they couldn’t trust Eliza (she is the cause of Lisa getting booted) the effective balance of power would be 5 to 5 prior to booting Julie. Therefore, Twila and Scout would know that if they joined with Julie to boot either Chris or Sarge that post-merge the women without Eliza would be able to Pagong the remaining guys and Eliza. This would leave the Burly Girls with Julie as the final five with all of them having an equal shot at first place. So, using Nash’s Theory it would not make sense for Twila or Scout to switch alliances to boot Julie.
If however JohnK is part of Yasur, then the logical boot sequence is for Eliza to vote with Rory/JohnK/Travis to boot Lisa. Eliza will boot Lisa because she cannot allow either the Burly Girls or the Fat Five to be the dominant alliance post-merge otherwise Eliza won’t make it past fifth place. If the Burly Girls were dominant post-merge, they would Pagong the guys and then boot Eliza before battling amongst themselves for first place. If instead the Fat Five were dominant post-merge they would Pagong the women and then boot Rory before battling amongst themselves for first place.
Therefore Eliza and Rory will have the same incentive to keep the Burly Girls and the Fat Five relatively equal so that neither of those alliances is dominant. After eliminating Lisa, then Eliza and Rory will vote with Ami/Leanne to boot Travis and then JohnK. Travis will be booted before JohnK because he (Travis) is a member of the Fat Five. Over on Lopevi, Julie would be eliminated in tiebreaker vote after a 3 to 3 vote split along the Burly Girl and Fat Five divide.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -