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scythe 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-02-01, 02:24 PM (EST) "amber is the key" Her position is perfect! if amber had any strategy right now, it would be this: 1) vote independent of Ogakor and Kucha in the next tribal council--maybe vote for Tina or someone else who is not a target. This will lead to a second round of voting, when amber should then vote with the Ogakor three, 4 vs 3 and one more Kucha will be out. This will signal to everyone in the tribe just how powerful amber's position is, and will forestall any attempt by Ogakor or Kucha to vote amber out. amber should blatantly threaten that if anyone votes her out, she will ally with the opposing tribe in the next tribal council (credible threat) Amber cannot be voted out at this stage because: (i) Kucha cannot vote amber out as this will ensure a 4 vs 3 vote against them, and extinction. their only hope is that amber votes with them. (ii) Ogakor will not vote amber as that will ensure extinction for them too, given Colby and Keith have the most previous tribal council votes in a future 3-3 tie (you need two people to ensure this result regardless of who wins the IC) 2) Vote with Kucha in the next tribal council! 3 vs 3 best chance to vote out Colby since he is the strongest of the lot and most likelier to win ICs. the objective for amber is to ensure the best chance of winning ICs, such as agst Tina, Liz, and Roger. So Colby must go at this stage, unless he wins IC, in which case Keith goes. Amber cannot be voted out here because: (i) the Kucha two cannot vote Amber out as this will ensure extinction for them 3-2 (ii) Ogakor cannot vote amber either as Colby has more votes than amber. 3) Vote with Ogakor in the next tribal council! 3 vs 2 Nick, if he's not gone by now, should be the target. Amber cannot be voted out here because: (i) Kucha 2 will not be able to do anything except lobby amber. (ii) Ogakor 2 will vote with amber, because that will ensure their entry into the final four. the worst case alternative of voting amber (along with kucha's votes) will bring a 2-2 tie in the next round, where Liz and Keith will face off with two past votes each already , so they will rather ensure their own passage into the final four. 4) Vote with remaining Kucha against the two remaining Ogakor 2-2 If Amber has not collected too many votes by now (which she shouldn't given that no tribe wants to antagonize her and ensure their extinction), she should make it into the final round with one Kucha and one Ogakor. Amber cannot be voted out here because: (i) The remaining Kucha will not vote with Ogakor because then he/she will have to bet on winning the IC to survive the final three, and voting the fittest (Keith or Colby) off is his/her best strategy. (ii) Ogakor cannot vote amber out because it is a 2-2 tie, and keith has 2 previous votes and should lose (unless the above unlikely scenario happens, or if Liz is the remaining Kucha). Hence: the ideal situation in the last three should be Amber, Tina and Roger. if it is a battle of attrition, Tina is amber's greatest threat. Other than that amber should win any other physical contest, setting up the stage for a Richard Hatch "strategy" stand in explaining oneself to the final jury. Any comments?   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: amber is the key Survivorerist 04-02-01 1    RE: amber is the key scythe 04-02-01 2        RE: amber is the key Survivorerist 04-02-01 3  you are on crack - amber next to go bluejackethockey 04-02-01 4    RE: you are on crack - amber next t... Survivorerist 04-02-01 5        RE: you are on crack - amber next t... managerr 04-03-01 6            Why some of you love Amber so much ... ACPS65 04-03-01 7                RE: Why some of you love Amber so m... scythe 04-03-01 8                    RE: Why some of you love Amber so m... Minstrel 04-03-01 9                        RE: Why some of you love Amber so m... Fast Eddie 04-06-01 13                Well it's not beyond me... Survivorerist 04-03-01 10                    it's time to move scythe 04-06-01 11                        RE: it's time to move Fast Eddie 04-06-01 12                            RE: it's time to move 5Foot3 04-06-01 14                                RE: it's time to move Fast Eddie 04-06-01 15                        RE: it's time to move Lurking 04-08-01 16                            RE: it's time to move dabo 04-08-01 17

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Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-02-01, 03:08 PM (EST) 1. "RE: amber is the key" >>>Any comments?<<< Yeah, a few. First of all, welcome to the boards! Second, I am the self-proclaimed King of the SB Amber fans so I was thinking of this since last Thursday. I had a similar strategy posted (P.S. post was called "Amber in Control") in which I saw it going this way. e10: Amber first stacks a vote against Elisabeth. Tiebreaker she votes with Ogakor against Nick. 4-3 win. e11: Amber sides with Kucha, voting against Colby/Keith (whichever doesn't win IC but Colby first). Good, we're on the same wavelength up to this point. Now here's where we go off in separate directions. e12: Amber sides with Kucha and votes off Tina. 3-2 win. Final four: Elisabeth, Rodger, Amber, Keith. e13: Amber tries to protect Keith and win him IC. That way, Rodger and Elisabeth are forced to vote Amber. Amber and Keith tiebreak out Elisabeth. (also see below) e14: Both Amber and Keith would vote off Rodger if they won IC. Rodger, I think, would take Keith to the final two. Best Result: Amber vs. Keith final two. I think Amber could very well win. Alternate e13: Amber is unable to protect Keith. First, Rodger must win IC. If he does, Keith must beat (beat beat) Elisabeth in a tiebreaker challenge. If either of these situations don't work out, Keith is gone and Amber must win e14 IC to get to final two. Best Result: Amber vs. Elisabeth/Rodger. She may have to settle for the silver (but there is always a glimmer of hope). That was my strategy. There's one problem I find with yours. Your strategy has Amber going into the final two against either Rodger or Tina. It's gonna take a lot of work to do that. I personally think Amber would be better suited against Keith in the final two. So, as we can see, two totally different Amber strategies at this point. Mine carries risk at the council of four, yours carries risk at the council of two. As much as I want Amber to win, can we agree it'll take a lot of hard work? The ball is definitely in her court, it's up to her what she wants to do with it. Survivorerist **GO AMBER!**   Top

scythe 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-02-01, 03:47 PM (EST) 2. "RE: amber is the key" Thanks for the welcome, King of Amber fans! =) That was a fabulous analysis...I'm glad there's someone else who's thinking along the same lines as I am. And you're right--it's gonna take a hell of an effort for Amber to win it all, but the good thing is that we're going to see a more aggressive personality than the fawning one we've been seeing since episode one. I guess it's a toss-up between your forecast and mine. Mine turned out that way cos I was primarily concerned with the safety issue--that Amber has to minimize her percentage that she might be voted out in every round. Because of that, my analysis didn't go your way for two reasons. First, Nick might not be the target in e10, as he might end up winning immunity again, and this will create problems later on if Liz or Roger is voted off now. Secondly, and more importantly, the stacking of the vote agst Liz will not work if Colby wins immunity in e11. Ogakor will simply vote Liz (vs Kucha+Amber's votes for Keith) and Liz will earlier in the tiebreaker, which means a sorry end for Amber and Kucha at the hands of the Ogakor trio. thanks for your welcome again =) It's great fun to sharpen my mind with one of similar ilk =)   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-02-01, 05:07 PM (EST) 3. "RE: amber is the key" I think I have a new friend. Sniff... >>>First, Nick might not be the target in e10, as he might end up winning immunity again, and this will create problems later on if Liz or Roger is voted off now<<< Right. I didn't think of that. I see one of two strategies then in this case. 1) Amber protects Elisabeth and stacks her vote in e12 (Tina ouster). The Ogakor "outcast" jumping ship and protecting a Kucha. Wouldn't that make great TV? (risky because of helping a Kucha then voting off a Kucha is not what most would call a goodwill gesture). 2) Amber convinces Ogakor to vote Rodger (risky because it leaves 2 strong Kuchas and no realistic chance to get rid of them until final four). >>>Secondly, and more importantly, the stacking of the vote agst Liz will not work if Colby wins immunity in e11. Ogakor will simply vote Liz (vs Kucha+Amber's votes for Keith) and Liz will earlier in the tiebreaker<<< Which means a votestack e12 instead of e10 may be necessary. Interesting. This makes your strategy sound better and better every minute. Very interesting, indeed! Survivorerist **GO AMBER!**   Top

bluejackethockey 84 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-02-01, 06:17 PM (EST) 4. "you are on crack - amber next to go" final 3 will be keith, red-hot liz, & colby amber has no allies & no one needs her. i think colby tossed the IC and let nick win - proving that even after 10 years of getting stoned w/his carwash buddies, he still has a few brain cells left. letting nick win not only saves nick's ass and buys his vote (down the road) - but also gets sympathetic vote for colby later from the rest of kuchy - and maybe 3 votes for the next victim as well. my guess for colby's next target.....oh yes, puppet girl. amber is like a scared little bunny now that will be pounced on. and chances are now that scary jeri is gone, she'll be a reclusive whiner with no friends - making the choice easy. sorry...puppet girl is next victim   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-02-01, 07:11 PM (EST) 5. "RE: you are on crack - amber next to go" whatever. Survivorerist **GO AMBER!**   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 04-03-01, 12:09 PM (EST) 6. "RE: you are on crack - amber next to go" All the "Amber controls the vote" theories are assuming that everyone votes along the same lines and things hold. I agree--Amber is in control, but only for the next one or two votes. After that, what's to stop Tina/Keith from buddying up to Roger and Liz and wresting control away from Amber? Not to mention that if she jumps ship once to often, she'll prove that she can't be trusted either and they will all gang up on her. Amber's only chance is to defect and then get rid of potential "bonding" partners with Roger and Elisabeth. Take her chances with Colby winning immunity and get rid of Tina and Keith first. The worst thing she can do if she sides with Kucha is to take out Colby--that leaves the door open for Tina and Keith to worm their way back in with Roger and Elisabeth. (Who owes them for saving her)   Top

ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-03-01, 12:22 PM (EST) 7. "Why some of you love Amber so much is beyond me..." Is it cuz she's PURDY? Anyways, I honestly think Amber is in the absolute worst position right now....if anything she appears to be a easy target to the rest, seeing how the only other person that voted with her this past Tribal Council was Jerri, who was voted out! There hasn't been this much diversity this SEASON. People like Debb, Kimmi, Kel, all were 1-7, 1-6 and so on votes. I think Amber is a minority, holds NO power whatsoever, and even though I predict she won't go this week, I'm fairly confident in saying that she will win this game, no question about it. And after she does that, I'll go put some salt on all the places where hell as just frozen over. Thanks for reading.   Top

scythe 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-03-01, 01:13 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Why some of you love Amber so much is beyond me..." For the record, I'm not an Amber fan =P I just think that she has the best room to move in right now, and if she plays her cards right, she can do very well. This is because she's not beholden to any alliance at this point, and while the gut reaction is that she's doomed, she actually isn't. That's the motivation of the entire discussion. managerr makes a good point in saying that there's potential for Tina and Keith to defect from Ogakor in e12. But Keith doesn't benefit here--unless he's damn confident he's going to win the IC agst Tina and Roger and Liz (hunger does strange things to the brain), cos he'll be in a tiebreaker agst Liz if it comes to a 2-2 tie. Tina defecting (and putting amber in the spot)is intriguing, but she really can't defect either, because she needs Keith to survive to the final three, rather than agst Liz and Roger. What say you Survivorerist? =) What's purdy anyway? And does anyone have any idea what the twist is tonite? It involves more rice, but at what cost?   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 04-03-01, 02:24 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Why some of you love Amber so much is beyond me..." Survivorerist and scyth excellent posts! I too am not an Amber fan, but the logic in your posts are excellent. The game is still control and immunity. In my mind, Amber is not going to switch to Kucha. She could, but either way, she shouldn't receive votes in E10. The reason to toss Jerri last week was sound and it shows that Amber must make a decision in E10. I think she stays put. She still isn't a threat in immunity, or at least not like Nick, Colby, and Keith. Kucha knows Colby has five votes and Keith must have some. They will aim at one of them with their three votes. Probably Colby since they don't know how many Keith has. Ogakor wanted Nick but he was immune, so he and then Elisabeth are targets again. So, the only possible four people logically to go are Nick or Elisabeth (immunity considerations), or Colby or Keith (Amber switches to Kucha and immunity considerations). The focus will start to turn more on attempts to level the immunity concept among them and for Ogakor to gain back their larger advantage. While the type of immunity challenge is important, it appears this week may be a physical one. Not that the women are not competitive, but so far, physical challenges have favored the men. Last week, immunity had 3 or 4 men in the semi finals and two men in the final.   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-06-01, 02:26 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Why some of you love Amber so much is beyond me..." > The reason to toss Jerri last week was sound The sound of silence, maybe. It was very satisfying to everybody (including me), but dumb strategically. She had no allies but Amber and was unlikely to make any, so she could be dumped anytime. (Although it would have been smart to keep her till the end, as she would lose the jury vote to anybody, including the turtle that keeps eating the fishhooks.) If T/K/C had kept her, they could have continued to get rid of Kuchas without danger and guaranteed themselves places in the Final Four. Instead, they have left their fate in Amber's hands and must count on her to remain incompetent. Not sound play at all.   Top

Survivorerist 4103 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 04-03-01, 02:52 PM (EST) 10. "Well it's not beyond me..." >>>Is it cuz she's PURDY?<<< Partly. Also, it's because I can identify with her. Yeah she's an outcast, yeah she's been doing Jerri's bidding, yeah she probably doesn't have anyone left that she is "bonding" with. But that's why I like her! While it's hard for most people to feel sorry for or sympathize with someone like her, I do. I'm not ashamed to stand up and say "I'm an Amber and I'm proud of it!" Now that my little speech is over, I'd like to assess the reality of the situation. Is she likely to go all the way? Probably not. She's a very emotional person (eg. with her crying at RC) and that may prove to be her downfall. But if she does, listen carefully. You may be able to hear me celebrating from my home. Bottom line: Amber can still win, but it's gonna take a lot of skill and a heap of luck to do so. Survivorerist **GO AMBER!**   Top

scythe 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-06-01, 10:09 AM (EST) 11. "it's time to move" it's pretty clear... Nick may have just saved amber's skin when he voted keith instead of following his other tribe mates. This leaves Colby with 5 previous votes, Keith with 4, Liz and Amber with 2--and this could prove crucial in future votes. If Amber stays with Ogakor in the next episide, the best she can do will be 4th. But she might not even make it there (see previous analysis)--if Colby and co betray her and vote her instead of the next expected Kucha prey. But hopefully Amber's not stupid. Ogakor is essentially doomed if she switches camps, and votes either Keith or Colby (preferably Colby, as he is likeliest to win future immunities). This means that they will be down to 2 Kucha, 2 Ogakor and Amber--and this bodes well for amber as she can reach the favorable Amber-Liz-Rodger Final three, where she can then hope to win IC into the final two. That's her best chance really.   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-06-01, 10:36 AM (EST) 12. "RE: it's time to move" > Nick may have just saved amber's skin when he voted keith > instead of following his other tribe mates. This leaves Colby > with 5 previous votes, Keith with 4, Liz and Amber with 2--and > this could prove crucial in future votes. Quite right. As I posted elsewhere, the Alliance goofed by overkilling Jerri. If 2 of the 3 had agreed to vote Liz that time, Jerri would still have been out, but Liz would have 4 votes now. > But hopefully Amber's not stupid. You must be kidding. So far, all indications say that she is a very poor player indeed.   Top

5Foot3 81 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-06-01, 07:12 PM (EST) 14. "RE: it's time to move" I think that Liz and Rodger voting for Amber was a very strategic move on their part. They can convince Amber that her team voted for her and that she would be better off with the two of them. And she would be. The three of them can then pick off Colby and Keith and take Tina along for the final four. In this final four Rodger goes first then Tina and then Amber and Liz winning it all...   Top

Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-06-01, 08:09 PM (EST) 15. "RE: it's time to move" > I think that Liz and Rodger voting for Amber was a very > strategic move on their part. They can convince Amber that her > team voted for her Huh? How will they convince her that exactly 2 out of 3 on her team voted for her? And that E & R voted for Nick? Amber is dumb, but not THAT dumb.   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-08-01, 03:00 AM (EST) 16. "RE: it's time to move" Given the choice, Amber might prefer to have an Ogakor in the finals with her. How can she make that happen?   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-08-01, 03:14 AM (EST) 17. "RE: it's time to move" Amber's best chance with an Oga is Keith becuase she knows Jerri definitely won't vote for him; Tina too, but does she know that is the question. Jerri seems so stuck on Colby, maybe Amber doesn't realize that either; i.e. Jerri still has a strategy even though she got voted off: Marry a millionaire. Heartless bword.   Top

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