Email this topic to a friend Printer-friendly version of this topic Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)		Archived thread - Read only  Previous Topic | Next Topic
Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Original message

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-17-04, 05:24 PM (EST) "Why keep Jerri? " Guess this could have gone in the boot thread but I think it's a topic that begs discussion, and the boot thread is not the place for that. Some assumptions, first. Lex is calling the shots at Mogo with Kathy as his loyal second (for now anyway) and Shii Ann along for the ride. Jerri has pledged her allegiance to him and I doubt Ethan wouldn't commit if Lex offered some kind of deal to save him. So, why does Lex, and therefore Mogo, keep Ethan over Jerri? Put yourself in Lex's positon. He's probably 90% sure a the next immuntiy (in E8/9) will be individual. Mogo is going into that merge down 6 - 4. If he hopes to advance far in the game, he's gonna need to do some dealing with Chapera when they merge to avoid a Pagonging. If he keeps Ethan, the Chapera target is fixed. He's a former winner, he's a threat and he's just not that well liked by the Chapera tribemembers. Ethan would be the first to go after a merge and Lex, with only Kathy and Shii, needs to not only keep them loyal - now down 6 -3, but find a way to swing some Chaperas over to his side. If he keeps Jerri, he buys himself some room to deal. First, I'm sure he's heard from both Jerri and Ethan about the dynamics in Saboga. He knows Jerri and Jenna were close and there is a possibility that she can be used to swing Jenna, and maybe Rupert, over to Mogo. Or, Jerri's old Outback buddies Alicia and Amber might be ripe for the pickings as well. In fact, Lex might feel he's got a shot at rekindling an alliance with Big Tom. So, Lex will need to scheme after merge. Who can help him more - Ethan or Jerri? Ethan has no ties except to Tom but Lex has that covered. Jerri on the other hand just might get the chance to sway Jenna, Alicia and/or Amber. Lex and Kathy have the best interpersonal skills of any of the Survivors left the game. This they know. The collective IQ of the Chapera tribe barely breaks triple digits. This they know as well. No doubt Lex feels he'll make something happen. If you're Lex and thinking longer term, who do you keep? Yeah, me, too. While Kathy has some insight into the dynamics of Chapera, it looks like the tribe did a good job of not revealing too much information during the reward. The ladies separated themselves from the group so it's doubtful that Kathy is aware of all the alliances/friendships that have developed. Tom and Rupert spent alot of time alone, the women hung out together and Rob was AWOL at times. No reason for Lex believe there isn't an opportunity - even if Kathy didn't share all the info. Would lex make himself the primary target in Mogo after merge? Sure, I say. He has shown the willingness to take a huge risk if there is the potential for a huge reward, like the Colby boot. No need to start playing it safe now. If Lex keeps Ethan, he guarantees himself 6 more days. By keeping Jerri, he gives himself a shot a winning the game if he can make the right moves.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Why keep Jerri? Brownroach 03-17-04 1  RE: Why keep Jerri? true 03-17-04 2    Lex and Rob have huge targets JohnMc 03-18-04 10        RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets true 03-18-04 11            RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets JohnMc 03-18-04 12                RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets true 03-18-04 13                    RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets idiotcowboy 03-18-04 14  RE: Why keep Jerri? TeamJoisey 03-17-04 3  RE: Why keep Jerri? Blow by Blow 03-17-04 4  RE: Why keep Jerri? ValleyGirl 03-17-04 5  RE: Why keep Jerri? KObrien_fan 03-17-04 6    RE: Why keep Jerri? Get Bent 03-17-04 7        RE: Why keep Jerri? KObrien_fan 03-18-04 8            RE: Why keep Jerri? Get Bent 03-18-04 9

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Messages in this topic

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-04, 06:01 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " I'm not sure there's a lot to discuss, munson -- you pretty much covered it. VolcanicGlass pointed out in another thread that, rather than seeing Ethan as a shield at the merge, Lex might see Ethan more as a hindrance to his own chances for winning immunity. That would seem to be the case (though, from Ethan's performances in these challenges, it's hard to see why...). If Jerri is being targeted this week and is smart, she will try to convince Lex and Kathy that she can swing over Jenna and Rupert (even though it would be a delusion, or just a lie, imo). But Kathy may buy it -- since Jenna and Rupert weren't at Chapera's champagne party, Kathy may have gotten the impression that they are on the fringes there, and available to be swung over.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-04, 06:15 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " Well, cause Lex and his gut are morons, that's why. Lex is playing the game backwards. He's voting out strong challenge threats when he needs them most, hoping to win all the individual challenges later. It ain't gonna happen. Lex thinks not only can he manipulate the women's votes (Kathy, Shii, Jerri) he also thinks they'll be easier to beat in challenges post merge. Lex made the choice to keep Jerri last week, when he booted Colby. Going after Ethan next makes the most sense to him. Unfortunately for Lex and his gut, it's a dumb move, as he'll go into a merge against a unified Chappy tribe, and won't have the numbers to go all the way. Rob's plan is clear. Win challenges, stick to your alliance, pick off the other tribe, and make it easily to final 4. It's obvious that Rob learned something from his first season, and it looks like, if he sticks to his plan, he has a very easy ride to the finals. Lex got greedy, panicked, and made his move way too early in the game. No way can he recover. Once the tribes merge, and Lex doesn't win immunity, he's gone.   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-18-04, 11:42 AM (EST) 10. "Lex and Rob have huge targets" True, thanks for opening the door for me to diss on Lex and Rob. <<Lex is playing the game backwards. He's voting out strong challenge threats when he needs them most, hoping to win all the individual challenges later.>> Completely backwards. Has Lex not watched the show enough to realize that EPM can throw a twist whenever he wants, and then you have to change gears. So far you have had 12 days as 3 tribes, then the last 9 days as 2 tribes. Now that we are expecting some sort of tribal swap (I would suppose that it would be no more than 3-6 more days so that the jury would be able to spend the rest of their "post Erin" time together), Lex should be planning for the game at hand as well as the individual merge game and the end game w/the jury. He's really only playing the individual merge game; he's forgetting two things. 1) The team game is still played until the merge. EPM guaranteed that with this latest twist to come next week. 2) You still have to court your votes for the final jury game. Ethan and Tom are two people you want to have on the jury, as long as they have been booted for some circumstance that you had no control over. Look at the people left on Chaps: Rob, Tom, Rupert, Alicia, Amber, Jenna Of the Mogos, Lex is the only man left, and he is much stronger than Paschal when he was the harem leader. In a team situation, any challenge that relies on strength will be won by Chapera hands down. If it relies on speed, Chaps again. The ability to hit a target, guess we know that one. Brains, a little more even, but this is #####, so they will be forced to do more physical challenges still, or at least something physical in combination with something mental. All that to say that the Mogos are down physically at this point when they took out Colby and Ethan and they are NOT at a merge yet and we don't know when it's going to happen. Lex could have kept his tribe competitive if he'd have gotten rid of female deadweight (aka Jerri and Shii Ann) and kept his male competitors for their strength. Lex now has a target on his back from the Mogos as well as in a post merge situation. In his own tribe, he is the leader, but Kathy is a good co-leader to fall back on. Shii is the likely next boot on the Mogos, but if you can't win, blame the leader. Lex, you're fired. In a post merge, look who was booted at 10th place: S1 - Gretchen - Rich started the pagonging with her because she was a tough soccer mom. S2 - Jeff V - He and Colby were the targets because of his strength, plus Jeff V would be booted because of the tie vote. S3 - Clarence - Aside from Beangate, he was seen as a STRONG physical competitor. Had he not given in to the rock/paper/scissors with T-Bird, he could have gone farther. As it was, he was clearly the physically dominant player above, arguably, Ethan and Lex. S4 - Rob M - biggest troublemaker, but also a VERY strong physical player. S5 - Shii Ann - victim of the fake merge, doesn't quite apply S6 - Roger - bossy, but a very strong leader. Get rid of the leader of the other team. S7 - Andrew - leader of the losers, fierce competitors by saving their bacon on the weightbearing challenge. 10th place is where you get rid of strength. Lex has that target all over him now. Now let's talk about Rob: <<Rob's plan is clear. Win challenges, stick to your alliance, pick off the other tribe, and make it easily to final 4. It's obvious that Rob learned something from his first season, and it looks like, if he sticks to his plan, he has a very easy ride to the finals.>> Rob lost challenges the first time around before the swap. He only won when he was on a unified team of Rotu's. However, even when they made him force his own destiny when they wanted to throw the challenge in order to boot him, he came through strong and pround. (Proud, arrogant, whatever.) In this game, though, he has been the Colby challenge whore. He beats each of the opposing men all the time, and they hate being beaten by Rob. While they respect his competitiveness, no one wants to lose to Rob. So the Mogos will look at Rob as the man to take out. On his own team, he has the ladies wrapped around his finger. (And one lady wrapped around his little finger.) Tom and Rupe see past that. Rupert knows that Rob can catch fish, so he is a threat to his "provider" role. Tom can see that he doesn't fit in, and he can easily go to Lex with Rupert to get rid of Rob. Who do you boot at 10 (with a traditional merge)? You get rid of strength. Who are the strong players? Lex and Rob. I'm not saying that they'll go next week. But they have targets, and they need to look over their shoulders.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-18-04, 12:21 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets" I mostly agree with your assesment, JMc. I think Lex is playing this edition very much like Rob tried to play it in S4. It didn't work for Rob, and I don't think it will work for Lex. I see Rob has learned from his mistake, and is playing this time in almost opposite fashion. I think he has a plan, and if he sticks to it, I think he will do very well. In this game, though, he has been the Colby challenge whore. He beats each of the opposing men all the time, and they hate being beaten by Rob. While they respect his competitiveness, no one wants to lose to Rob. So the Mogos will look at Rob as the man to take out. True, but Lex is only helping Rob by voting out his main competition! Lex is helping Robs game, he's just not playing smart enough to see that. By winning the tribal challenges, Rob has guaranteed himself the numbers necessary to win. As arrogant as he has been in confessionals, he is always promoting the tribe in front of his teammates. He's built a strong alliance with Amber, and he also seems to have an understanding with Tom. He engineered the ousting of his main competition, Rob C. early on, without hurting his tribes chances for challenge success. When Rob and Amber approached Rupert and Jenna for a solid alliance, he knew what he was doing. He knows that if any of them get unhappy, or too greedy, it will ruin his game plan. He has to keep them happy, or in line. He's done that by making Rupert feel vulnerable, Amber feel safe, Jenna feel included, and he probably has a side deal with Tom. At this point they have a clear numbers advantage over MM. Even with a swap, they have the numbers to control who gets booted. Odds are pretty good that one of the newly formed tribes will carry a Chappy majority. All they have to do, is throw a challenge to oust the minority MM member, then wait for the merge. Once the merge happens, he has to stick to his plan. The Chappys must pick off all of the MM members first. Doing so, will keep the unalligned Chappys happy. By this time, any stragglers who figure out they're not in the core alliance (Alicia) it will be too late for them to turn it around. Rob has put himself out there as a challenge hog, but he's also kept his tribe together, and emphasized tribe unity until the end. The stage is set for a pagonging of MM members, swap or not. Rob will remain on the good side of all the Chappy members, as long as he continues to reinforce his current alliance, and keep the rest of them safe from TC. Will he win? If he makes it to the end, I think he should, but it really depends on how bitter the jury feels for being beaten by him.   Top

JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 03-18-04, 01:15 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets" Lots of good points, true. <<...Lex is only helping Rob by voting out his main competition!>> Very, very true. <<Even with a swap, they have the numbers to control who gets booted.>> True. Chaps are up 6-4. Even if the Mogo's get one of the Chappys and they vote them out, it will only be 5-4 and Chaps will still be able to Pagong, unless Alicia, Tom, and Rupert (and maybe Jenna) realize that they are on the outside and that they need to get rid of either Rob or Amber in order to keep control with the Chappys. Tom and Rupert know that Rob is the leader. Alicia is also on the outside. That's 3, and they can swing to the other side at 7 to keep control of the tribe. For example, if Chaps loses a member but still is up 5-4, then once they boot 2 more members, A/T/R can swing over and pick up the 2 Mogos to boot Rob and Amber. At 5, they drop the Mogos and have a free-for-all at F3.   Top

true 9689 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-18-04, 02:19 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets" True. Chaps are up 6-4. Even if the Mogo's get one of the Chappys and they vote them out, it will only be 5-4 and Chaps will still be able to Pagong, unless Alicia, Tom, and Rupert (and maybe Jenna) realize that they are on the outside and that they need to get rid of either Rob or Amber in order to keep control with the Chappys. Tom and Rupert know that Rob is the leader. Alicia is also on the outside. That's 3, and they can swing to the other side at 7 to keep control of the tribe. For example, if Chaps loses a member but still is up 5-4, then once they boot 2 more members, A/T/R can swing over and pick up the 2 Mogos to boot Rob and Amber. At 5, they drop the Mogos and have a free-for-all at F3. The thing is, except for Alicia, they aren't on the outside. Rupert and Jenna made a final 4 pact with Rob and Amber. They all discussed the importance of sticking to each other, and not getting greedy or stupid. If they stick together, and include Tom, at least for now, they'll have a smooth ride to final 4. Alicia may move up a boot spot, once the numbers are locked in, but it's clear that if Alicia was playing to win, she'd be making an effort to allign before now. I think she believes she has Jenna and Amber on her side, so that's why she's not making any power moves, and as long as they keep winning, she doesn't have to. Tom and Rob are always shown together, so I have to believe that Tom thinks he is on the inside of a strong alliance. Why flip? It makes no sense for them to flip things to boot Rob and Amber, just to get to final 3/4 with someone else. In fact, they'd probably rather face Rob and/or Amber in the finals, then someone likeable, like Kathy or Lex. I believe Rob is playing it so ALL the Chappys feel secure. And, as long as they do, they'll have no reason to make waves or flip alliances. Rob saw how the Rotu alliance collapsed in S4. I actually think he learned something from his season, and won't make the same mistakes they made. (if he's as smart as he says he is )   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-18-04, 02:59 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Lex and Rob have huge targets" Personally I think they are all a bunch of morons with Lex being their King -ICB *waves to true*   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-17-04, 06:24 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " If/when Mogo loses the IC, the best Lex can expect is this: Go into the merge with a core alliance of four, and hope to swing Rupert and/or Jenna his way because they are former Sabogans and thus not really rooted in the core Chapera alliance. He may also have designs on Big Tom's loyalty. Perhaps Kathy reports back to Lex that there is tension between Rob and Rupert. The Dread Pirate Rupert was suspicious in his absence during most of the bacchanal on the boat. Given these factors, he still must take one of two Sabogans with him and hope to build from there. Ethan is a the bigger threat to win some individual immunities. Jerri is more easily defeated physically, and will be an easy boot when the time comes. (Of course, Ethan would also be the first target of a Chapera "pagong" effort, so this whole strategy is questionable.) The time for a strong tribe is past. It is time for a strong alliance. Maybe it is just this simple: Jerri pledged her undying devotion, and he knows that she knows that she needs an alliance to stay alive. And Ethan beat him once. These reality show contestants need a reality check!   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 03-17-04, 07:26 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " I think Lex's thinking could be summed up as this: Going into a merge both Ethan and Jerri would be bigger Chapera targets than Lex. However, Ethan is more likely to win an IC than Jerri is, in which case Lex might be the next biggest target. That's probably the extent of his logic. He's totally fixated on the post-merge game. Whether Lex is calling the shots this week is to be determined. Colby brokered the Richard boot and last week Kathy wasn't around to consult with Lex, so he was the defacto leader. With Kathy back this week we'll have to see who gets to be the leader. If she's opposed to the Colby boot we might get some fireworks and a power struggle. -BbB I do more to not work than actual work.   Top

ValleyGirl 377 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 03-17-04, 07:37 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " Lex will move to eliminate his biggest post-merge threat tonight, getting rid of his biggest threat now before it's too late, prior to the merge. After the merge, Ethan becomes a bigger threat as he could win individual IC's. Jerri can be torched any ol' time, as enough of the other tribe know so much about her and what a pain she can be. Survivor All*Stars F2 favorites Ambamudda and the Robfadda   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-04, 09:41 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " First of all, let me start by saying I have spent the last two weeks watching the show with Kathy in the same room. She has been able to fill in a few blanks on things that have already happened. Rupert and Jenna were missing from the champagne party for the simple reason that they both drank too much. Jenna got sick and passed out, Rupert just passed out. It had nothing to do with them not being tight with the rest of the Chappy's. (Though I don't believe for one second that they are part of a Chappy alliance either, they would get sacrificed quicker then you could say Boston Rawb) Second of all, Kathy had talked it over with Lex several times about Colby being next. That was their strategy. So while she may have been absent at the vote, Lex had her consent and support in the boot and was not upset by it (though sad because she did like Colby). In her words they had to get rid of the power players, first Richard, then Colby, possibly Ethan next and for that reason. In Survivor you never know for sure what the next twist will be. I believe their strategy banks on the eagerness of people on the fringes of an alliance to break free from that core and join them. We have seen it many many times in seasons past that for one reason or another the dominant tribe going into the merge makes a cocky mistake and allows the others to flip the script on them. Doesn't Rob strike you as a little cocky? Now will he get a little careless in his game? Remains to be seen. Kathy and Lex most assuredly have a weak tribe, but a strong alliance bond with loyal followers. The underdog may strike back here, and soon. Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT   Top

Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-17-04, 11:38 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " KO Fan, Do you know if Kathy was aware of the closeness of the Rob Amber bond? Did you pick her brain as to what she percieved as the Chapera alliances at that time? It might help us spoil later on to see what she was thinking at that time. I thank you for sharing your Kathy information with us. It does always lead to some good insight, and therefore good speculation. Did you learn anything else good this week? And why, oh why does she like Shii Ann? She is such a follower. Half the time she doesn't make comments about something unless Kathy made it first, and then Shii Ann says it a little differently. Man is she bugging me this season! Anything you can add would help all of us out!   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-18-04, 01:26 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " Yes I did learn some useful things, I will share what I can. For now I will answer your questions. Yes, she knew the Rob/Amber alliance was tight after spending time with them on the yacht. She can't say much about speculated alliances and is very careful about revealing anything about the future. She did say she was well aware that the Chappy's thought they were getting info from her, but she watched her margarita intake and gave them snippets of things they could have/should have figured out all ready. Did I learn anything else "good" this week? Like I said previously she works very hard at not revealing anything from future events, but if you listen closely and know enough about the show, you can pick up a few things. For example, she talks about life on the island and such and then talks about the episode that is about to come on. I am sitting in a crowd of 250 people and probably the only one that really follows the show closely. She mentioned that at this point in the game Mogo Mogo was out of rice, they had just gotten rid of another player (Colby) and were not a fun tribe like the Chappy's. When she said that line the bells went off for me and I was able to conclude that Chapera must win the reward challenge and take the balance of Mogo's rice, since they still had plenty of it left, and bingo that's what happened. Why does she like Shii Ann? Because everybody needs a player or two that they can control, and Shii fits that bill for Kathy and Lex. Not sure if you saw in the east coast update thread from last week, but Rob did indeed use the machete to cut the ropes to the oars while Ethan kept trying to untie the knots, that is how Rob was able to get out ahead of Ethan in the challenge. Surgeon General G.A.W.K.U.R's of OT   Top

Get Bent 293 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-18-04, 01:34 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Why keep Jerri? " KO Fan, You rule! Thank you so much. It is good information. We thought Kathy was smart enough to not spill the beans during the Reward. The editing made us think otherwise. But she is indeed a shrewd player. Poor Kathy. It must be tough for her to see these episodes. She looked so beat down and depressed starting in last weeks episodes. Hard to relive it I would think. From what I can surmise, her story is just beginning, so I am excited to see her dominate. I did not see her season, but I am quite impressed with her in A$$. I did see the East Coast thread and read about Rob's use of the machette. He really does think out of the box during challenges. He doesn't follow directions completely. He bends the rules, but does not break them. THANK YOU AGAIN for all of your great information!   Top

Remove

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Select another forum Lobby The Amazing Race Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--The Amazing Race Fanatics Forum (Protected)   |--The Amazing Race Basher Forum (Protected)   |--The Amazing Race Spoiler/Speculation Forum (Protected) American Idol Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--American Idol General Discussion Forum (Protected)   |--American Idol Individual Contestant and Judge Discussion Forum (Protected) Big Brother Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--Big Brother Fanatic Forum (Protected)   |--Big Brother Bashers Forum (Protected)   |--Big Brother Live Feed Updates And Spoilers (Protected) Survivor Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--Survivor Fanatic Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Basher Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Games Forum (Protected) Other Reality TV Shows (Conference)   |--The Bachelor / The Bachelorette Forum (Protected)   |--Dancing with the Stars Forum (Protected)   |--Other Reality TV Shows Forum (Protected) Off Topic (Conference)   |--The Help Forum (Protected)   |--Off-Topic Forum (Protected)