Phew, ok, I'm a little nervous here I'm a long time lurker but first time poster. I've watched Survivor, religiously, since episode one of Season 1. I decided that it was time to register because a co-worker (also a huge fanatic) and I have come up with, what can only be termed, a speculation.

I've chosen Blows over sucks because, well...let's just say that their board is aptly named. I prefer the more grown-up attitude and overall congenial postings of the community here at blows.

Ok, on to the speculation. This is based, in part, off of the information offered to us via Kristin (taken with a huge grain of salt). She indicates that Richard does something so heinous that it drives one of the ladies "from down under" to quit.

Along with this I have to bring up the theory that there are 2 quitters this season (Jenna M. and one anonymous). Our first thought was Jerri. Most have predicted her as this week's bootee anyway. She was on Australia so it seemed to fit. We began to question this though. Who else was on Australia? Amber, Alicia and Colby. Early on there was speculation of Colby quitting and that may cause the "ruined friendship" of himself and Jiffy. That has sort of fallen to the way side. If it's gotten any recognition at all it was with the understanding that the Colbster just isn't happy in his environment this time around. I tend to agree with this speculation. Colb isn't happy with his environment but NOT just because of the attitudes of the people. We think he is actually the victim of Richard's little "offense".

This week's title is "bamboozled". I think that it has correctly been assumed that the title refers to the recycled immunity challenge. Next week's title is "Outrage!" We think that Kristin's report has nothing to do with this week. We speculate that NEXT week, in the immunity challenge, Richard cuddles up to Colby and this makes Colby and his homophobic self become very uncomfortable and irate. We speculate that he lashes out at Jiffy and the crew and nothing is done about it. We assume, based on Kristin's info, that the following week's reward challenge will have us watching Colb removing himself from the game in a manner which would ruin his relationship with his best bud, JP (threat of lawsuits). Colb comes from the land down under and he is definitely being set up (per the camera work) for a run in with Little Richard. We speculate that in that same week there will still be a tribal council and a person voted out. This will lend credit to the "13 weeks" slated by CBS instead of the 14.

My personal opinion is that this week Saboga will lose and Jerri and Ethan will end up on Mogo Mogo. Rupert and Jenna L. will end up on Chapera. I still feel that Jerri is the logical boot for this week as the new Mogo Mogo will lose immunity. I think the screen shots of Ethan vs. Rob M (my favorite survior...yes I know that discredits me right off the bat) are the final showdown for the immunity.

A couple of things that stand out to me from the vidcaps, that may not be worth anything but may offer something. We see Tom and Shi standing on planks that connect in the middle then extend out in front of JP over the pool of water. For some reason we see Tom sprinting across the plank and Shi not doing anything. Later wee see Rob and Ethan engaged on teh plank in front of Probst. The question is, if the 2 tribes are leaving from teh same side and "meeting" on the stump that connects the 2 planks...why do we see Ethan on the opposite side of Rob when squaring off. There must be an advantage to getting across your plank, to the stump then out onto the "fighting plank" before your enemy. There must be a good reason or Big Tom wouldn't have sprinted across and fallen. Secondly, there is definitely some immuntiy idol in front of Jeff during the "bamboozled" portion of the caps. Bear in mind that this time around it shouldn't have to separate like the previous one (only 2 tribes now, only one winner). We see 3 colored flags hanging on either side of JP. The green, red and yellow are all still represented. This, at first, made me think this challenge may have been the reward instead but after seeing the idol I figured the 3 colors are "symbolic" of the life that existed on the island (you know they love that stuff). I have read a few posts about people speculating that the lawsuit threats come this week and may be made by Ethan as he was hit "outside the white". If you look at the vidcaps again you can see that when Rob M. engages Ethan the flags behind his head are the flags that are to Probst's right side (facing outward). This means that Rob M engaged Ethan, presumably, within the white and pushed a little to run him backwards. I'd rule out Ethan (as whiney as he is) as the candidate to throw out lawsuit threats. As I stated above, I really don't think the lawsuit threats come this episode. I think that next week (and Probst did say episode 3 and 6) you'll see Rich "hit on" Colby and Colby blow up. The actual leaving may come either that week's immunity challenge or the next week's reward challenge (depending upon when the offense occurs).

This week I believe Jerri is out. Next week I see Chapera losing IC and Sue being voted out. Colby may leave next week as well. 2 weeks from this Thursday I see Jenna L. being voted out (if Chapera loses) or Ethan (if mogo mogo loses) and potentially Colby exiting as well. I think the merge will take place after that and Richard will be the first voted out (and Rupert can make his comment regarding Hatch being a shell of his former S1 winner - presumably after they hear of his antics with Colby).

Ok, I apologize that my first post was so long winded. I am not new to forums nor to Survivor but I am new to this wonderful community. I look forward to corresponding with you nice folks in teh future and hearing what you have to say with regard to this speculation.

AF