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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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No big surprises here, I agree with most of the popular opinions that have been getting voiced since Monday, apologies for not getting a chance to formally post this earlier (although those monitoring my Spoiler Island picks are no doubt already aware of the below)

Reward Challenge

This clearly seems to be the staircase challenge. I don't think vidcap of Rupert being excited is directly due to any challenge, I think it's scene from camp... from the moments after they start their first fire. I agree the Mogo Mogo crate is suspicious and frankly, it's the best info that I think we have to work with, so Mogo Mogo it is.

Immunity Challenge

This clearly seems to be the sunken boat challenge. Mogo Mogo clearly has trouble with this challenge. Of the other two tribes, Saboga has two strong competitors (Ethan and Rupert) and three weaker competitors (JennaL, Jerri, and Rudy.) Chapera on the other hand, has numerous strong (or in Tom's case, just plain oxen-like) competitors in the form of Tom, Rob1, and Rob2, and, in Alicia and Sue, even several of the game's strongest women -- making CHAPERA the favorite to win the challenge.

Assuming a Chapera win, the question then becomes if Mogo Mogo, with the strength of Colby, Lex, Richard, and Kathy, can overcome their apparent difficulties and still defeat Saboga. Given Mogo's strength advantage -- never mind the idea that Burnett would be unlikely to show such a clip of a struggling Mogo Mogo if they were to indeed finish last -- the answer would seem to be YES... meaning Saboga goes back to tribal council again.

Bootee

In losing twice in two challenges, Jerri/JennaL will then have to decide whether to stick with their personal desires to immediately vote out previous winner Ethan, or, in Jerri's case, not repeat her mistake of three years ago and allow her personal feelings to overrule the logic of not voting out one of your strongest players only days into the contest.

I think Jerri will realize the need to keep Ethan... and probably convince JennaL of the logic in doing so as well (which would mean even without Rupert's vote, the Ethan and the duo could vote Rudy out 3-2), or, failing to get her logic through to JennaL, convince Rupert that Rudy was not long for the game and that voting Rudy out would make for a stronger tribe. In other words, either way, Rudy goes.

To sum it up:

RC Winner: Mogo Mogo
IC Winner: Chapera
Bootee: Rudy