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"Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?"
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-20-07, 01:25 PM (EST)
 
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"Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
We just have to think of Rudy, Kathy, Rob C. and Terry to know why EPMB introduced the F3 twist. Never mind that I've never seen 3 teams playing for the Super Bowl or the World Series, in Survivor, it gave us one close jury vote between Ozzy and Yul and prevented Dreamz from having a chance of winning F3 immunity and carrying Cassandra to the end. Even if, in a F2, Earl would've forced Dreamz's hand by keeping Yau-Man at F3, on the surface, it gave nice results. The question is: Is the twist killing the game by forcing pagonging?Take the situation right now just as an example: Imagine that Courtney and Denise feel that they are #4 and 5 in the alliance. With the old F2 situation, they could team up with Peih Gee and Erik to flip the game and improve their chances. You could say they have the same opportunity now but something has changed. Before, Courtney and Denise could count on making it to the end together and splitting the angry jury votes. Now, they would have to include one former ZH member in the F3. Either Erik or Peih Gee would be assured of the votes of Jaime, Frosti and probably from the other ZH also. Three votes in pocket and Todd, Amanda and James are mad at Courtney and Denise. They wouldn't stand a chance. With a F3, can there ever be a successful flip?
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Quiddity99 244 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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12-01-07, 09:00 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
>The season where the F3 definitely
>would have changed the outcome
>was Exile Island. Terry wins
>hands-down. Not only the F3
>format, but in the following
>season, the final IC was
>played where the platforms were
>specifically designed to each survivor's
>foot measurements. The lillypads that
>Terry, Aras, and Danielle stood
>on at their final IC
>all looked the same to
>me. Talk about a double-whammy
>for Terry! It's incorrect to assume that Terry would have won EI had there been a F3 though. For one thing, if there's a F3, then the producers probably would have had the idol expire at F5 instead of F4. Since Terry wasn't immune at that TC, he's voted out 3-1 instead of Cirie. That season, every season goes down completely different if there was a F3, so its assuming a lot for anyone here to think that what was the F3 would still be the F3 had there been a F3. ---
...Classic Quotes in Survivor History...
Brandon: "Which person on the jury deserves to be here the least?"
Ethan: "You."
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iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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12-03-07, 01:59 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
Michel, you never want to take a member of the minority alliance to the end, F3 or F2, just ask Twila and Steph about that.
And Quiddity, you said Terry wouldn't win an F3 in Exile Island because 1) the HII wouldn't have protected him thru the F4 vote, and 2) you can't assume things would have happened the same if there was an F3.
Well, first of all, Yul's HII protected him at the F4, so your first point is refuted by that. Secondly, your 2nd point makes no sense because if the players don't know there is going to be an F3, such as in the Cook Islands, then it is logical to assume they would do nothing different than they would with an F2. Now, you can always say that the producers would do things different if there was an F3, but that is like me saying if I got out of the other side of the bed this morning, then I wouldn't be writing this right now. Haha...>
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XXL Survivor 131 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-07-07, 04:05 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
Hmm. If final 2s were final 3s, and assuming each case the third place finisher was in the final 3 (i.e., they didn't see it coming so votes did not change leading up to it), then who wins?S1: Probably Rudy beats both Rich and Kelly, but I'm not 100% sure. He surely gets Sue's vote, but I don't know after that. Sean maybe, Coleen maybe. Gervace, maybe? Not really sure. But yes, I think he wins. S2: Chef Dave likely does not win against Tina or Colbi. I think maybe he gets Rodger's vote, which just makes Tina's win 4-2-1. S3: Ethan still wins even if Lex were in there, at least I think. S4: Definitely Kathy wins if it were a final 3; not even close as she gets John, Robert, and Tammie's votes. S5: I defer to prior posters, as I don't have a strong gut feel. S6: Actually I think Rob C. gets shut out, despite popular sentiment here. Who votes for him? Heidi couldn't stand him, and loved Jenna (same with Alex). Deena was going to vote female no matter what. Who the hell knows why Kristi would not vote for Matt, so who knows what she would do? Dave didn't have any particular fondness for Rob C. Nope, no way having Rob C. in that final makes any diff. S7: Who came in 3rd??? S8: Yeah, I think Jenna might have beaten Ramber. Lots of those people felt backstabbed by both Rob and Amber, so Jenna would have picked up votes and won. S9: Worst season ever. Who cares, though whoever came in 3rd had to be better than the last two, but I can't remember who was 3rd. S10: Ian might have got a vote or two, but Tom wins this one either way. S11: Danni still wins though in less of a landslide as Rafe did not anger as many as Steph did. S12: Oh yeah, Terry wins if there's three. Maybe unanimous. S13: na as they had three S14: na
So Kathy, Jenna from all-stars, and Terry pick up the mil, and probably Rudy too.
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Aruba 3400 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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12-07-07, 09:00 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
Interesting analysis...but with certain seasons I don't think one can make an assumption that the third place finisher would be in the F3...S1 - No way Rudy makes the F3. Everyone knows he would be the sentimental favorite and the master strategist Hatch makes sure the F3 would be Rich, Kelly, Sue. Hatch still wins but we are deprived the classic "Rat & Snakes" speech. S2 - I don't see Keith getting a single vote, so he is a non-factor. S3 - Could go either way between Ethan and Lex. I might tend to lean toward Lex since he played a less passive game than Ethan. S4 - I can't remember all the series of events leading up to the F3 other than the imfamous purple stone along the way. If Kathy is there, she wins hands down, but I'm thinking (much like Rudy - S1) because of her popularity she's gone if they know the voting will come down to a F3. So who wins?...Who cares! S5 - Brian still edges out the win. S6 - Rob C. picks up Matt's vote. Not sure about anyone else. I guess Jenna wins out of default. S7 - Who came in third? How could you forget Johnny FP??? At the Reunion Show the straw poll confirmed that even Lil beats out FP. With this sorry season culminating with the worst F4, the worst F3, and the worst F2, the worst sole survivor Sandra still wins out of default. S8 - Probably the most interesting F3 scenario of all seasons. Too close to call...and since I don't consider All-"Stars" a real season, I'm not going to try. S9 - Scout was third place; Chris still wins. S10 - I agree...Ian may get a vote or two, but Tom wins. S11 - Danni edges out Rafe. S12 - Terry wins, but not unanimous. Cirie still votes Aras and Bruce stated at the Reunion Show he would still vote Danielle.
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XXL Survivor 131 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-09-07, 12:38 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
Ili: So you think Tom and Lex still vote for Amber over Jenna? Remember that they were angry at both Rob and Amber and just more angry at Rob. They felt almost trapped (no alternative) to voting Amber. I can't see them not voting for Jenna if given that choice. I know Jenna didn't "deserve" it, but that didn't lessen the backstab feeling that Lex/Tom had. They would have just viewed Jenna as less culpable because they never had an alliance with her, never relied on her word, etc.As far as Jeri, yeah she probably votes for Amber. Which would have made it 3-3-1 if you had 7 jurors.
If S1 was a final 3, how would those votes have gone down?
Sue - definitely Rudy Sean - Rich or Rudy??? Coleen - Kelly or Rudy??? Gervace - Kelly or Rudy??? Jenna - I gotta think Rudy (over Kelly) Greg - supposedly based on what number they picked, but I think he voted (and still votes) Rich added jurror Gretchen - Rudy probably So is it a sure thing that Rudy wins? I only feel solid that Sue would have voted for him. All the players on the other tribe (plus Sean) - I don't know what they would have done.
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Colonel Zoidberg 3662 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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12-10-07, 01:40 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
I picked this apart awhile ago as well...what would happen if, at F4, Probst lays it on the remaining Survivors that the vote is between three, not two? Also, to make it more realistic, the F4 challenge is whatever they used at F3 (usually endurance,) and the F4 challenge is skipped.Borneo: Kelly wins, and Rich has to cut Rudy. Sue's vote is voided, and Gretchen probably votes for Kelly, giving her the win. Australia: Colby wins, and Elisabeth goes, as usual. Keith's vote for Tina disappears, and Jeff votes for Colby, giving him the win. In the odd chance that Elisabeth wins, Colby is cut at F4, and the extra Kucha on the jury gives Elisabeth a 4-3 win over Tina. Africa: Kim wins, and Tom is likely still cut. Lex's vote for Ethan disappears, and Clarence votes for Lex, as do Teresa and Brandon. Lil Kim still votes for Mama Kim, and it's 3-3-1. Tom's still bitter at Lex and votes "Eathen." Same for Kelly, although Frank may vote for Lex and give him the win. Marquesas: Neleh wins, and Kathy is voted out by a scared Vecepia. Vecepia carries the Rotu 4 except for Zoe, who votes for Neleh. Same goes for Sean and Rob. In the odd event that Vecepia is cut, Kathy carries those votes. Thailand: Brian wins, and Helen is still cut. The Chuay Gahn membership votes for Brian, as does Shii Ann, and with Jake's vote, Brian still likely wins. Amazon: Jenna wins, and Rob is ousted. Christy votes for Butch, as does Roger; the rest vote for Jenna. If no majority can be gathered to vote out Rob, then Butch goes; Rob carries Matt, Butch, and Roger and probably carries Deena as well. Pearl Islands: Darrah probably wins that challenge, and out goes Fairplay. The vote is split between Darrah and Sandra, with the Drakes picking Sandra and the Morgans going for Darrah. In that scenario, Darrah wins. If Lill pulls it out, Darrah still goes, and Fairplay gathers Burton's vote and maybe Tijuana's - and not much more. Sandra cleans up. All-Stars: Two possibilities here - Rob wins or Rupert wins. If Rob wins, Rupert's out, and Jenna's vote for Rob disappears. Jerri votes for Amber - but the bitterness kicks in. Lex votes for Jenna, as does Alicia; Rupert switches to Jenna, tying it between Jenna and Amber. If Tom switches his ballot, Jenna wins. However, Rupert could win, which probably puts Rob beating Jenna in a tiebreak and Rupert picking up votes from Jenna, Tom, Alicia, and Lex. Vanuatu: Chris wins, and Eliza is probably still out. Ami votes for Scout, and Eliza does the same. However, Chris still carries Rory, Sarge, and Chad, and Julie votes for him as well. Palau: Tom wins, and Katie still carries Ian to the final three, as Ian knocks off Jenn in a tiebreak. Coby votes for Ian instead of Katie, and I have half a notion to say Gregg does, too. Jenn plays along - but Ian falls short. Tom carries Bobby Jon and Steph, and Caryn and Janu are fiercely loyal to him. Guatemala: Danni wins the final immunity, and Steph decides there's no way in hell she's beating Danni and Rafe. The vote is 3-1 against the red-haired one, and Rafe, bitter at both Danni and Steph, votes Lydia. Again, however, he stands alone, and Danni cleans up. Exile Island: Two possibilities here - the idol expires after F4 or after F5. If it's after F4, Danielle wins the final immunity, and Aras is out 3-1 as Cirie has no choice but to vote him out. Aras votes Cirie, as does Bruce. Shane votes Terry, and so does everyone on the former La Mina tribe, including new juror Nick. Terry takes it in a close vote, as Courtney throws in a vote for Cirie. However, if the others can vote out Terry, they do so, and Cirie claims votes from Bruce and Courtney. Aras gets a vote from Terry, but a bitter Shane also votes for Cirie, and she claims Sally's vote to win. Now, for the opposing scenario...that is, if an additiona athletic challenge is inserted at F4 and endurance is at F3 for Cook Islands and Fiji. Cook Islands: Ozzy wins at F4, predictably, and Sundra is out in a tiebreak. Ozzy wins again in endurance, takes Becky to the end, and Yul votes for her. No one else does, though, and Ozzy cleans up. Fiji: A fun one. In an obstacle course, the immunity necklace ends up in the hands of either Dreamz or Yau-Man. As it were, Dreamz, with an F3 ahead of him, honors his end of the deal, taking his chances, and the tie vote is between himself and Earl. Either way, I have Earl taking him down in a tiebreak, idol or no idol, and the final immunity goes to Yau-Man. Yau-Man takes Earl. Cassandra and Dreamz vote for Earl, Boo votes for Yau-Man, as does Stacy, and the horsemen pay respect votes to Yau-Man, who wins 5-2. China: In an F3 scenario, Peih-Gee is the biggest immunity threat, and if she wins, Todd goes. A final three between Amanda, Courtney, and Denise probably goes to Amanda, as I know several people who won't be voting for Courtney, and there's no way Denise is going to win. If it goes to F2, Denise could triumph over Courtney, but I still have my money on Amanda. 
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Aruba 3400 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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12-15-07, 07:51 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
Interesting analysis...good work.Here's my take on the F3 scenarios: S1 - I agree that Kelly wins IC and Rudy is out. I also agree that Gretchen votes Kelly. But Gervase becomes the interesting vote in this scenario. I remember a post interview when asked why he wanted Kelly to win, he responded he didn't want either to win. He went further to say that he was leaning toward Rich, but switched to Kelly only to "spite" sore loser Sue and her "rats & snakes" speech. With a F3 Sue does not give her speech and there's no spite vote. I'm thinking Hatch still wins. S2 - Coby wins IC; Elisabeth is out; Jeff votes Coby; Coby wins. Agreed. S3 - Tom is likely out at F4 and Lex does edge out a victory. Agreed. S4 - HMMM Does Kathy's boob pop out during a F4 challenge as it did during the F3 challenge? If not, then I think Kathy wins final IC and the game. If she doesn't, I believe that puts Pappy in the finals with Vecepia and Neleh if Kathy is booted. Pappy beats both Vecepia and Neleh. S5 - Agree with the scenario - Brian wins regardless. S6 - During the F4 IC, Matt & Butch tried to team up to knock out Jenna in the blindfolded maze challenge. In a F3 scenario, the final IC wouldn't be that maze; it would be the same endurance final IC we saw that season. Except I don't see Matt tanking the challenge with four competitors as he did with three. So Matt wins the final IC walking away. It's obvious Matt & Butch wanted Jenna gone at F4, and Rob knows a good thing when he sees it and votes out Jenna knowing he could beat Matt and Butch in the finals...which he does. S7 - Darrah probably wins final IC and FP is history. In the worst F3 ever Darrah probably pulls it out. Not as pathetic as the Sandra win, but still a pretty sad ending to the season. S8 - I don't see Ruppert beating Rob, so Ruppert is gone. A bitter jury = a Jenna win. S9 - Agree with your scenario; Chris still wins. S10 - Agree with your scenario; Tom still wins. S11 - Agree with your scenario; Danni wins. S12 - Interesting on two counts. If the HII was played up to the F4 in Cook Islands, then I'll make a safe assumption it would be the case here. Which gives Terry a ticket to the F3; he wins hands down.
If the HII is not played, then the lillypad challenge is the final IC. Watching Cirie try to balance herself would be worth the price of admission! In Cook Islands the platform for the final IC was conformed to the specifications of each player. If they did the same with the lillypads in Exile Island, Terry wins final IC and wins the season as well.
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garcor 432 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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12-18-07, 09:26 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Is the F3 Twist Forcing Pagonging?" |
Without the final three would Todd have made final tribal council.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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