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NightScribe 761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-07-03, 06:42 PM (EST) "Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" Hello fellow spoilers and Survivor fans. It's been a while, hasn't it? Well, I won't bore you with the details of my busy life but instead post my thoughts about the All Star Survivor, which is currently wrapping up filming. After pondering the 18 person cast, reading a few of the comments here, and giving it some thought, I came up with a few ideas that may either help or complicate our speculation about Survivor strategy. Well, the obvious is this: all of the Survivors, except perhaps Rupert, have the gift of hindsight. How many times do we ask ourselves if given a second chance, how could I have done X differently? These players have had quite a bit of time to contemplate their actions, maneuvers, relationships, personal conduct, etc. in the game. They've had at least a year to analzye the game, with the added bonus of having other seasoned veterans to talk about Survivor ad nauseum. This gives them at least two advantages: First, they will be very smart about all the different scenarios that can play out during the game, so the sceming and strategy should be the best we've ever seen. But the second advantage comes in the form of personal growth -- or evolution. I can't imagine how embarrassing and humbling it must be to watch yourself on television and then have millions of people talk about you, analyze your every move, insult you, etc... This probably has a huge impact on how these players will conduct themselves a second time around. Jeri, as much as she was the one we loved to hate, was very hurt by all of the bashing she endured by fans of the show. I think we're going to see Jeri way toned down in this season. She may want to dispel the myth that she's a heartless Lady MacBeth. Who knows, she may have evolved as a human being, been humbled by her embarrassing performance on Survivor and be a changed person. How can any of them not be changed by such a singular experience as they have had? Who's to say that Dicque will try and seize control as he did in S1? He may very well adopt a UTR strategy to avoid an early boot. Kathy, naive and duped, may turn out to be a master strategist this time around. Jenna can't depend upon her good looks in her tribe; how will she adpat? Rupert got nothing for being such a good survivalist. Will he sit on his ass and let the others do the fishing this time? The point is this: if they've learned anything about the game, especially those who played poorly the first time (think Shii Ann), why in the world would they play the same game twice? Okay, these are DAW's, but I do think that with a second chance, they are going to be extremely motivated to either A) prove they can win on Survivor or B) prove their win wasn't a fluke the first time. This will require them to rethink everything they thought they knew about the game. The most delicious part of this is that over-thinking the game can destroy a player just as easily as not thinking it through enough. When predicting behavior, strategies or potential alliances amongst the All Stars, let's just keep in mind that they've had time to learn from their mistakes and evolve as people and players. I can't wait. It should breathe some life into the ole' girl.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... bris 12-07-03 1    RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... okaloosajohn 12-16-03 12  RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... MakeItStop 12-07-03 2  RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... smokedog 12-08-03 3    RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... speedyforme 12-08-03 4        Yeah, Kathy & Shii Ann Goooey_Alley 12-13-03 6    RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... katethegreat 12-15-03 8        RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... munson 12-15-03 9        You are who you are. mavsfan 12-16-03 11  RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... dabo 12-08-03 5  RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... munson 12-15-03 7    RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... DRONES 12-16-03 10        RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... munson 12-16-03 13    RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... tommiettop 12-19-03 14  RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evol... SurvivorBlows 01-04-04 15

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bris 143 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-07-03, 08:02 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" I think one allience will be between Tom, Rob M, Alicia, and Amber on one tribe. just my thought. I also think that Amber will be looking for revenge on Tina in the merge cause i think she really hated tina for voting her off cause that was the reason Amber voted colby to win. I also think that Amber and Colby have an allience in the merge   Top

okaloosajohn 1259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-16-03, 01:54 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" It'll be interesting to see if anyone on ASS independently came up with a 'big lie' ala Jon, I think. And I wondered during S7 why there wasn't more of an effort to forge some kind of alliance with Rupert by the Morgan tribe. If ASS offers some tribe swapping, I think that would be something to look for.   Top

MakeItStop 1098 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 12-07-03, 08:21 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" Hey Scribe, it's good to see you! You make some very good points. A "normal" person would try and learn from their mistakes, but I have to wonder about some of the all-stars. Dicque for one, don't you think his ego will get in the way of his game strategy? Do you think he thinks he needs to change his strategy? Jerri was a ##### ... but will she be able to control herself when she's hungry and tired? I think that the all-stars will try and correct their past mistakes but in the end, I think their true selves will sabotage their efforts. I guess we'll have to wait and see. If you want breakfast in bed then sleep in the kitchen.   Top

smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 12-08-03, 01:54 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" Random thoughts: a) I don't think a past winner has a shot of winning again. Tina will probably do the best of the past winners. Jenna has her personal tragedy, as well as the fact that she doesn't bring a heck of a lot to the table in a game of PLAYERS. Ethan will be seen as an immunity threat. I think everyone wants to have the notch in their belt that voting out 'the master' will bring (Richard). b) I think it is pretty obvious that the outcast twist in Pearl Islands was a dress rehearsal for MB to have an escape plan in his back pocket if too many of his favorites (and ours) get the early boot. c) I also think that hardcore players, like Rob C and Lex, are going to get mown down pretty quickly. These guys wield fear and respect, and the survivors would be wise to get them out ASAP. d) If Rudy makes the jury, I will be very impressed. The guy is pushing 80! e) I'm looking for an Alicia or Shii Ann type to win this thing. They will be motivated to do better than their marginal finish last time, and are just unknown enough to avoid the pre-jury bloodbath that is sure to develop. Plus, they are pretty good players - just had bad circumstances or luck in their first try.   Top

speedyforme 228 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-08-03, 09:39 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" i agree, id like to see Shii-ann in the final four with Kathy as well....they deserve it!   Top

Goooey_Alley 425 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-13-03, 09:44 PM (EST) 6. "Yeah, Kathy & Shii Ann" took a risk for moving from one alliance and another. But unlucky for Shii Ann that the IC during her boot was per tribe.   Top

katethegreat 207 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-15-03, 02:24 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" Great thoughts in this thread - but one question: Didn't the Outcasts Episode air AFTER the ASS filming began? If so, then Rupert is the only one who knows of this possibility. Does he share this info with his tribe? Also, to throw in my two cents, although I can respect the fact that most people will probably adjust their strategies this time around, the fact is that the game eventually brings out certain inherent traits in people that are part of their true selves - so you have to play a game that fits the real you, if you get what I'm saying. And the game also throws around a certain amount of luck unevenly, like who is on your tribe, your location, etc. that will always impact the winner. Can't wait either.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-15-03, 03:59 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" I seem to remember the dates would have been real close. My memory is that ASS began filming the week Rupert was booted. If this was indeed the case, the contestants could have seen the Outcast episode. And I wouldn't put it past MB to show them the eppy just to get them thinking about it. Again, I think he did that with an earlier cast.   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-16-03, 09:40 AM (EST) 11. "You are who you are." I agree with your 2 cents Kate. Players maybe able to change their stripes short term, but when under 7 weeks of stress I think these folks true colors will come out. I don't think Rudy, Colby, or Lex will flip on their alliances time after time. I don't think Jerri can help but be bossy, or that Shi Ann can keep herself from alienating herself from her tribe thru her aloft attitude, or that Amber will be anything but a follower. To, I don't think Rob C. can help but flip on his alliance as soon as it's too his advantage. At it's core, Survivor brings out who people are when push comes to shove. The players may have grand strategies about how to change their games, but I don't think they can do it more than short term.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-08-03, 02:23 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" Hi, Scribey, and smoochies to you and Hexe! Rupert will never again agree to throw a challenge. Richard will have to hit the ground running, and have a new strategy. He'll be one of the biggest targets out there right from the start and he knows it. Ethan won't change his game at all. Neither will Rudy, for that matter. Jenna L. may be less annoying, she ought to know she can't afford to be a vote magnet in this edition. Jerri will still be all about Jerri, but having been burned before she may understand she has to pay more attention to the game and not rely on her sex appeal. Colby and Lex, dunno, but I hope they both last well into the game, them two going head to head will be great TV. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-15-03, 11:10 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" I'm of the belief that with each passing season, the game is less about a prepared strategy starting off the game and more about the ability to adapt throughout the game. Hatch had his plan and executed it perfectly. He was aided by the fact that no one else on the island understood how to play the game to win. Compare his path to the title with Jenna's and Sandra's. Say what you want about their worthiness as champions - and I will argue with you point for point that they did deserve their respective victories, especially Jenna - both made the necessary moves to get them to the end. Jenna's strategy going into the Amazon was to use her bikini model body and feminine wiles (sp?) to play the men. That plan went up in smoke Day 1. When two guys who probably would have fallen for her charms - Ryan and Daniel - were booted early, the longer term benefits of that startegy were negated. She employed the tactic later to win over Dave and Alex (and got their votes in the end) but didn't even try to work Rob, Matt, Butch or Roger. She got Roger booted pre-jury, when everyone wanted Dave gone and still won Rob's vote despite the fact he was allied with Matt. I know many disagree but I feel Jenna played a better game and was more deserving than either Vee or Ethan. Plus she won four frickin' immunities! I know, beating a dead horse. Onward! The nature of the game has changed, evolving from having a predetermined strategy to be executed by remaining as loyal as possible to early alliances, to one that requires a more subtle approach, where the ability to adapt to changes - new threats, twists, relationships - and remain fluid and flexible will win you the title. Burton expressed this well at TC - every three days you ally with others to attain a mutually beneficial outcome. Sandra also pointed this out when she said everyone had bigger fish to fry and her vote was available for use by others. What to avoid? Integrity - can't win with it so don't claim it or practice it because it will be used against you. Pride - it do cometh before the fall so keep your mouth shut and play on. Physical threat - just tone it down a little (Colby!) because true or not, it's a good excuse to vote someone off that everyone can forgive rather easily. I, too, cannot wait for the games to begin.   Top

DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-16-03, 06:01 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" Actually Sandra had a very well thought out strategy from the beginning and rode it all the way to victory. Her strategy was far different from dicques but effective none the less. Jenna...well...I'll just agree to disagree with you on that one. She was certainly more deserving than Vee, but not by much. DRONES   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-16-03, 02:12 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" But Sandra's vote wasn't up for bids until after Rupert got the boot, despite her claims that this was her strategy from the get go. Sure, it might have been her strategy going in but she didn't need to use it until that point. She established a solid "old school" alliance with Christa and Rupert and rode that a good ways. She adapted when Rupert was voted out, saving her butt and Christa's in the process. Is having no strategy and just voting with the majority a strategy? If so, then Darrah was a master strategist as well. In a similiar situation in earlier editions, Pagong was meekly picked off, unable to strategize or make an effective play for Kelly or Sean. In the Outback, Amber failed to adapt once Jerri was booted and soon followed her to the jury instead of seizing the opportunity to team up with Nick, Liz and Rodger. In Africa, the Boran Boys Club regrouped at merge and dominated because Kelly G and Brandon didn't make a move early enough to save Clarence. Things changed in the Marquesas thanks to the Rotu 4 and the coconut chop IC. Thailand was a step back to the traditional approach albeit with a very effective twist by Brian. Compare with the last two editions. For example, in the Amazon, Roger and Dave are dispatched and Butch is next logical target of the alliance. Jenna makes her move and gets Deena booted as we have the Alex-Deena battle for control. Remember, Rob C, the master strategist, followed along reluctantly. Rob asserts his control and they blindside Alex. Now Jenna adapts. Since she and Heidi are the targets, they work Christie, as does Rob. Jenna takes advantage of a wishy-washy Christie to save her butt. Next, she and Heidi are still targets. Does J remain loyal to Heidi? No, she sells out her friend and partner with her "I'm too tired, I want to go home, I'm so weak" schtick. Heidi is "obviously" the bigger IC threat and off she goes. Jenna makes a miracle recovery and dominates the ICs. PI was surprise boots at TC one week after another with ever changing alliances and temporary coalitions. And the game will never be the same.   Top

tommiettop 60 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-19-03, 10:16 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" I wouldn't be surprised to see Colby win it all this time. He's a physical threat, yes, but with the promise of ghosts returning to haunt them, the cast probably won't target the stronger players as much. And after the merge he's an IC runaway when it's necessary. It is of course possible that his integrity 9or good intentions) will be his downfall, as it was when he picked Tina for F2   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-04-04, 07:18 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Strategy, Speculation, and evolution" BUMPING so that this won't sink to the bottom when moved to the normal Survivor Spoilers forum   Top

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