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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
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complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"20/20 Hindsight"
Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 01:01 PM (EST)
 
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"20/20 Hindsight" |
OK, now that it's over, we can look back at some of the spoilers/speculation and see what did and didn't help us, in order to prepare for upcoming seasons.Key quotes are still worth looking for, but they won't necessarily give us the crystal clear answer. In hindsight, we had two: Jon's comment about having a million dollars that Sandra wouldn't win, and Rupert's comment that a Drake would win. In hindsight, the liar lied, and one of the heroes told the truth. Personal note: Add me to the list of idiots who believed Jon, even knowing that the guy was a liar. One trend that had occured in a number of Survivors did not occur here. In Africa, Marquesas, Thailand, and the Amazon, the winner did not come from the dominant tribe. In each of those versions, one tribe dominated early on, only to be decimated in the endgame. This season, Drake had the early advantage, and a Drake won. As Snewser said, follow the money. Yet again, a gambling spoiler proved true. Last season, we were handed the final 2. This time, it handed the winner to those willing to pay attention. Just a few things to kick this off...  I am the embodiement of snarky, sarcastic and smart.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-15-03, 09:31 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Does Sandra have the record?" |
Yeah, but Tina handed immunity over to Keith at the merge the only way they could do it back then, by quitting the competition.
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I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 02:09 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: 20/20 Hindsight" |
other things that I have seen noted:Sandra cursing in her first confessional Sandra the only one not shown jumping overboard Sandra's "I liked being a pirate!" All of these are theme oriented, however, so these types of things may not be quite as useful in subsequent seasons where there is not such an expressed theme. Also, Ryan's quote for Lill not giving up, if we're looking for things not just dealing with the winner. 
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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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12-15-03, 02:29 PM (EST)
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5. "UTR thoughts and confessional analysis" |
What we also saw this year is that a UTR player is probably there for a good reason - they don't make for interesting TV. Does anyone remember Nickwho from S2? He and Darrah should get together for some quiet time.Also, I think I built a coffin for confessional analysis when a review of the numbers showed there was no pre-boot episode rise or drop confessional count trend. They also showed there wasn't necessarily a boot-episode rise, as has always been assumed. (Sorry KB, I always thought this stuff was interesting.) The deeper analysis of confessionals separating them into "narrative" versus "strategy" or tribe dynamic confessionals still probably has some value because storytellers don't go away immediately. Overall, I'd say confessional analysis is an interesting exercise to see who might be a primary character as the show moves along. But yeah, the big lesson is to follow the money. -P
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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 02:55 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: 20/20 Hindsight" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-03 AT 02:57 PM (EST)Thanks for startying this thread, Bebo. I imagine we'll be digging up all kinds of hindsight over the next couple of weeks! Here's an interesting one, courtesy of a poster called Isgal over at Sucks. She says this: "Well. whether it's a spoiler or not remains to be seen. But. All the player clips in the intro have one or more of the following elements: water, flames or their reflection. skull and crossbones, other players. Every one of the players cllips feature this, and sometimes, as in Rupert's clip, and Darrah's, it's extremely subtle. The only clip that doesn't feature any of these elements is Sandra's." (Edited to add: She posted this before the Final 4/finale episode aired, btw, and appears to have picked Sandra as her winner because of it.) I watched the opening credits of the finale show to see if she was right, and she was. The only person who appeared completely alone in the opening routine was Sandra. In case anyone wants to read the entire thread, it's here (though Isgal's was the only input of any note, IMO): http://pub207.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessageRange?topicID=14876.topic&start=181&stop=200
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Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 03:08 PM (EST)
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7. "The betting spoiler" |
Here's a new article from David Brauder, the guy who originally broke the story about suspicious betting on Sandra.http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=529&e=1&u=/ap/20031215/ap_en_tv/tv_survivor_bets Interestingly, it only took the relatively measly amount of $5,000 in stakes before the betting website concerned became suspicious. Never let it be said that bookmakers don't know their stuff; it's why the house always ultimately wins in any betting situation. They genuinely understand risk. I wonder if we'll see any fake betting on future winners -- bets planted by CBS to detract attention from any REAL insider bets that may be placed...? Just because so many of us are now aware that money being wagered is a really strong indication that there's good information out there.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-15-03, 07:27 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: About the "key quotes" thing" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-16-03 AT 06:12 AM (EST)> So if it's negative, it will probably end up
>setting up some sort of irony in the end, but
>if it's positive (i.e. Rich's write the check,
>and Brian's quote - which I cannot remember),
>it's probably going to pan out. Here's what I can remember off the top of my head the key quotes/incidents relating to the winner: (note, these are not exact quotes but along the lines of) S1: Dicque's "You can write me the million dollar cheque now" S2: Tina - the only person who did not speak in the entire first episode S3: Ethan - The Star of David analysis, and also MamaKim's decision to dump some of the precious water and the comment "whoever dumped the water will probably win" (Thanks KB for the link that helped me correct this statement) S4: Vecepia - talking with Sean in, I believe, the second episode and the comment "no black person is going to win this thing" S5: Brian - "It's a business trip for me" (we also have Clay's comment on how the little guy always get picked last but he always bounces back - a key comment because the producers allegedly didn't know who the winner was with the vote revealed live 3 months later) S6: Jenna - "I just want to beat the guys and shut them up" Some of the comments are taken in a negative way, while others are in a positive or neutral way, so I think there's no definitive pattern other than that MB likes to mess with people.
 
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 08:29 PM (EST)
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18. "toot my own horn" |
(we
>also have Clay's comment on
>how the little guy always
>get picked last but he
>always bounces back - a
>key comment because the producers
>allegedly didn't know who the
>winner was with the vote
>revealed live 3 months later) ...I'll take full credit for being the poster on the boards who called this the key quote of ep #1 right after the viewing of the ep. If I remember correctly, he referred to himself (after being picked last) as a diamond in the rough. Yes, I am great.
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tightiewhities 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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12-15-03, 09:06 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: 20/20 Hindsight" |
hey. board virgin here, so fingers crossed for gentle treatment.something that i've always taken note of since tina won S2 is the diverse demographics of all of the winners. if you look at all seven of them, none of them fit into all of the same catergories. richard: white middle-aged gay male tina: white middle-aged straight female ethan: white (but jewish, a cultural difference that was highlighted many times in editing) young staight male vecepia: black young straight female brian: white young-ish straight male jenna: white young staight female and sandra: hispanic young-ish straight female i've always noted this, and that's a huge part of why i couldn't believe that darrah would win. i ruled her out immediately, if for no other reason than that she fits the exact same profile as jenna. just something i've noticed. please be kind. (or kind-ish at least)
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Rothschild 496 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 09:38 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: 20/20 Hindsight" |
Very interesting --- is an Asian next ?????
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Goooey_Alley 425 desperate attention whore postings
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12-20-03, 00:11 AM (EST)
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47. "Shii Ann???" |
Someone on the other spoiler boards claims that Shii Ann reached F3, per informer description of one of F3--an Asian. I doubt it the fact that everyone on that board screw each other with wacko info's and claims that they had reliable sources...
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-03, 09:09 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Well..." |
LOL. The human brain looks for patterns, it is part of being human. When it comes to Survivor we should take it as a given that patterns are made to be broken.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 09:18 PM (EST)
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20. "Choosing the Right Spoiler" |
As is often the case, it is not a problem of "not enough spoilers" but rather a problem of "too many spoilers." The trick is always to choose which spoilers to believe.In this case, Survivor Phoenix spoiler--bad spoiler-- and betting spoiler--good spoiler. If you believed the betting spoiler (that Sandra won) as well as the "younger woman/older woman/bearded man" final three spoiler, and ignored all other spoilers (which tended to point toward Darrah), you would have gotten the final four order, although you would have had to guess a little between Lil or Jon getting to finals. To get that last part, I think there was a spoiler that a woman comes back after being voted out and makes it to the final two (at that time people were deciding between Trish or Lil as that woman). So the problem again is that there were conflicting spoilers, and we had to know which were the right ones and which were wrong. I have never been able to do that, and I probably never will. Oh well, trying to figure it out is the fun part.
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GrendelsMom 3272 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-03, 09:46 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: 20/20 Hindsight" |
I'm new to the spoiler game (haven't even been lurking long--just this season, although I am combing through the archives--fascinating reading!!) Some questions that might help me understand the process, and illuminate the herrings:1) What exactly made people jump on the Darrah bandwagon to begin with? When did the "younger woman" in the beardedman/olderwoman/youngerwoman scenario (which turned out to be correct) turn into Darrah? 2) I saw in the archives from early this season a post (can't find it now, but will keep looking) saying that the betting spoiler on Sandra had largely been discredited. Does anyone remember how or why? 3) Why do other spoiler sites carry such authority--I saw this season how reliable Snewser is, but I also saw him yank everyone's chain with the prediction of Lil's second boot. Lemmings (TDT) then changed their predictions solely on this report--although fewer on this board, to everyone's credit. Then again, fewer also followed with his correct prediction of T, when everyone had Christa or Burton pegged. How much and how regularly can Snewser be trusted? And why believe Survivor Phoenix when they say "Darrah and Lill confirmed as final two" without any further explanation? (forgive me if this sounds rude; I just want to know--mostly because I fell for all of the above as well!) 4) I agree with Goooey_Alley that the most formidable spoiling info comes from the inside-- ChillOne for S6, or King Oscar this season. But for every King Oscar, there are ten people who swear to know someone who knows someone, and we end up anticipating something that never happens--a third returning outcast, a brutal tribal council or a broken foot. How do some of the more experienced spoilers separate the real info from the DAWs who just want to spoil the spoiling? Aside from inside info, I also think the best spoiling comes from those who have a handle on the strategic and psychological ramifications of the game: Shakes during S2 (which I've just finished as I work through the archives) or Misto on the big lie this season. Comments? Answers? ____
GM
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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12-16-03, 09:03 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: 20/20 Hindsight" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-16-03 AT 09:04 AM (EST)>1) What exactly made people jump
>on the Darrah bandwagon to
>begin with? When did
>the "younger woman" in the
>beardedman/olderwoman/youngerwoman scenario (which turned out
>to be correct) turn into
>Darrah? Darrah most easily fit the description of the younger woman with long dark hair, it was never a certainty. If you check my S/J/L/D vote you will see that I listed D/J/L/S as my alternate choice. I was expecting an anti-Lill jury at that point since everyone on the jury or left in the game had been stabbed in the back by her. >2) I saw in the archives
>from early this season a
>post (can't find it now,
>but will keep looking) saying
>that the betting spoiler on
>Sandra had largely been discredited.
> Does anyone remember how
>or why? I think there may be something about this is the news archives as well. >3) Why do other spoiler sites
>carry such authority--I saw this
>season how reliable Snewser is,
>but I also saw him
>yank everyone's chain with the
>prediction of Lil's second boot.
>Lemmings (TDT) then changed their
>predictions solely on this report--although
>fewer on this board, to
>everyone's credit. Then again,
>fewer also followed with his
>correct prediction of T, when
>everyone had Christa or Burton
>pegged. How much and
>how regularly can Snewser be
>trusted? And why believe
>Survivor Phoenix when they say
>"Darrah and Lill confirmed as
>final two" without any further
>explanation? Snewser has an impressive track record of being right way more often than he is wrong. He has also used his site the past several seasons to play headgames on spoilers, primarily via his scorecard. The more hits his site gets the better his business, you figure it out. The true master of weirding out all the spoilers, though, was Paratrooper. Don't know what happened to him, but he was a genuis. SurvivorPhoenix, TrueDorkTimes, Acme, and other sites also have relatively good track records. >4) I agree with Goooey_Alley that
>the most formidable spoiling info
>comes from the inside-- ChillOne
>for S6, or King Oscar
>this season. But for
>every King Oscar, there are
>ten people who swear to
>know someone who knows someone,
>and we end up anticipating
>something that never happens--a third
>returning outcast, a brutal tribal
>council or a broken foot.
> How do some of
>the more experienced spoilers separate
>the real info from the
>DAWs who just want to
>spoil the spoiling? It's all a game, it's all for fun, at least that's my approach. One of the first things to do is confirm that which can be confirmed. Okay, a lot actually cannot actually be confirmed, but there is always a starting point. Weight loss spoilers, how these people look upon returning home: Is there photographic confirmation, or at least are there several independent sources pointing out the same spoiler? Is the source someone known and reliable? If not, how does the source respond the challenges and so on, are they reasonable or unreasonable? Works for a broken foot as well, or a broken leg or whatever. That's where you start, confirm whatever you can, then proceed from there. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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12-16-03, 00:53 AM (EST)
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26. "increased airtime told me the boot" |
|I noticed this throughout the season and only mentioned it once but couldnt' find the thread. I did however discuss it with friends.Two episodes before Trishes boot she had increased airtime. I noticed more and more of her and then boom she was gone. I kind of saw it coming but didn't think about it. Then Ryan O. had increased airtime for two episodes, I told my friends that he may go ... 2 eps later he is gone. I then noticed Tijuana had increased airtime for two episodes (this is the one i posted somewhere in sucks and cant find ) but everyone was saying Burton or Christa and |I was thinking Tijuana and wondering if people would think i was crazy. two episodes later Tijuana gets booted. The final person was Darrah, two episodes before the finale she had increased airtime, |I didn't know whether it was because she was the winner or what. It was difficult to tell since it was so close to the finale. Each season mark burnet fools with editing that tells us whos booted or wins the ic During S4 every episode from the merge on someone would say "i am gonna win this thing" or something like that. Someone else would also say they need immunity to stay in the game. each ep. the person who said they would win was booted and the one who needed immunity got it look for trends in editing it is the key
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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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12-16-03, 12:04 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: increased airtime told me the boot" |
Screen time is a tricky measure by which to spoil, but I do think there's some value to it, taken as a whole (not solely confessionals). The thing about editing is that they're trying to tell a good, complete story, not just give someone screen time because they're due or because they're going home soon.About Darrah's increased screen time, that started happening after Rupert was gone (screen hog). She won immunities, so that gave her screen time, and they were down to seven people, so she was guaranteed to get more time. I would say that once we're down to eight people, screen time means less and less. They're all going to get their share. -P
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badger 1273 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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12-18-03, 09:42 AM (EST)
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38. "more key quotes, more iffy spoilers" |
a couple of observations:another key quote, both from and about Sandra, was the insistence that she would vote for anyone as long as it wasn't her. an iffy spoiler i wouldn't get out of my mind was the one about shawn and jon being the last to fly out of contadora. i have often wondered if burton and shawn were confused by spoilers. shawn was listed in the yahoo spoiler, for example, as a star whereas burton wasn't (this was, i believe, the only person wrong in this spoiler). i wonder if jon and burton were seen together on their reward trip or something? i guess the moral of this story is that some spoilers are helpful (man with beard as F3), some are just plain wrong (survivor phoenix), just as some quotes predict future outcomes ("a drake will win"), whereas some announce events that will NEVER happen (jon bragging to thunder dan that he's F2). i guess that's one of the reasons why i can read these boards and still be surprised with what happens on the show. or, of course, the moral of the story might just be, as snewser noted, follow the money.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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12-18-03, 08:16 PM (EST)
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44. "Ryno rooting for Darrah to win" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-18-03 AT 08:19 PM (EST)20/20 hindsight: This should have set off much bigger alarm bells (I even posted about it, only to ultimately ignore it). No one ever talks about the winner to the degree that Ryan rooted for Darrah in his post-boot interviews and chats. I tried to rationalize it by saying we kinda knew that he had a crush on Darrah so it would seem suspicious for him to root for anyone else. But now I believe that MB STILL does not want anyone to appear to be rooting for the winner, or to talk about the winner at any great length in their media tour. 
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
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12-20-03, 00:37 AM (EST)
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48. "ryno rooting for darrah" |
I noticed this too. Many times a player will say they are rooting for someone that doesn't winpatricia was rooting for hunter-he was booted next ryno rooted for darrah- she lost. in tanyas case she left the game early and left thailand early also. She had no idea what happened in the game after she left. The others however (patricia, ryno) knew exactly what happened
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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Congratz! Wish I'd convinced myself to go in that direction. 