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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 11-14-03, 11:44 AM (EST) "New alliances plus obvious foes" Now that Ryno is gone, let's take a look at who is left and how the tribe dynamics break down: Drake: Rupert, Christa, Sandra, Jon Drake/Outcast: Burton Morgan/Outcast/adapted Drake: Lil Morgan: Tijuana, Darrah The dominating Drake 3 are clearly R/C/S. Jon is on the outside, and so is Burton. R/C/S are top 3, Jon and Burton are 4 or 5, and Lil is 6. Also, Christa clearly does NOT like T or D. We will not see a chica alliance in this series. Sandra might go for it, but Christa never will. Lil will go with the Drakes on everything if and only if Burton thinks it is a good idea. She also will not side with the Morgans without Burton suggesting it. We really have 3 swing people, which makes this season stay VERY interesting. Burton, Lil, and Jon are all swing votes for Drake. Someone needs to pull a Neleh and realize that they can either accept 4/5/6, or take a shot at 1/2/3 with Sean and Vee, er..., T and Darrah. It's the difference between an exciting S4 season or a boring and predictable S3.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: New alliances plus obvious foes jsanb 11-14-03 1    RE: New alliances plus obvious foes toddE 11-14-03 2        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes bluecarman 11-14-03 4        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes tamarama 11-14-03 5  RE: New alliances plus obvious foes GuessItRains 11-14-03 3    RE: New alliances plus obvious foes cleaningwoman 11-14-03 6        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes Nash 11-14-03 7        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes toddE 11-14-03 14            RE: New alliances plus obvious foes udg 11-14-03 16        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes Loquatrix 11-15-03 17  RE: New alliances plus obvious foes Blow by Blow 11-14-03 8  Choices, Choices... Jims02 11-14-03 9    RE: Choices, Choices... zzz 11-14-03 11  RE: New alliances plus obvious foes zzz 11-14-03 10    RE: New alliances plus obvious foes Brownroach 11-14-03 12        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes aethelstan 11-14-03 13            RE: New alliances plus obvious foes anninvt2002 11-14-03 15            RE: New alliances plus obvious foes Loquatrix 11-15-03 19        RE: New alliances plus obvious foes Loquatrix 11-15-03 18

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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-14-03, 11:48 AM (EST) 1. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" LAST EDITED ON 11-14-03 AT 11:49 AM (EST) Interesting??? Jon is going to join Burton, Lil, Darrah and Tijuana to take out Rupert. Then Jon is next then Sandra then Christa. Jon cuts his own throat and we will have another undeserving winner. The only good news is that Jon will be the cause of his own demise. Unfortunately, he takes down Rupert with him.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 11-14-03, 12:28 PM (EST) 2. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" I think it will be interesting because the Burton/Lil/Darrah/Tijuana/Jon alliance is far from a fait accompli. There are spoilers to indicate Jon as the last male, Rupert the last male, and Burton the last male. A lot of people think Sandra, not Darrah, will be the F2 female. Many things could happen, and it will be unpredictable a la the super-fabulous Marquesas season. Many people dis S4 because they feel Vee was an undeserving winner because she was low profile. But those people should ask themselves if they honestly believe Johnny PotsandPans or Robbfadda would really have deserved to win? Do the most on-camera people really most "deserve" to win? Editing is important. One reason Africa sucked so bad is because it was uber-predictable. Ethan did win some challenges, get a lot of camera time, stay in the dominant alliance the entire time. But he didn't do anything clever or intriguing. I would argue that he coasted to victory in a really awful season that no one ever claims was interesting. And people loved Amazon despite their antipathy towards unsympathetic Jenna M., because alliances were constantly shifting and every week was unpredictable. Example for this season: Many people think Rupert leaves next, but he may last until F3. Who knows? Even the spoilers are questionable, and for the casual viewer, anything could happen each week (last nights RyanO boot being the exception) so it is fun to watch.   Top

bluecarman 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 11-14-03, 01:00 PM (EST) 4. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" I thought Vee was undeserving, or at least not the person I wanted to see win. I thought Kathy did a good job and would have liked to see her win it.   Top

tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 11-14-03, 01:02 PM (EST) 5. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" >>I think it will be interesting because the Burton/Lil/Darrah/Tijuana/Jon alliance is far from a fait accompli. There are spoilers to indicate Jon as the last male, Rupert the last male, and Burton the last male. A lot of people think Sandra, not Darrah, will be the F2 female. Many things could happen...<< I agree ToddE!! There are so many pseudo-alliances forming & re-forming, it's too early to be certain which bearded male & younger woman are in the F3. The only alliances I'm currently convinced of are Lil/Burton and Christa/Sandra. (And who knows, C/S may have been talking about taking Rupert out later, post-Pagonging...he may not have actually been in danger from them last night.) And, I may be a sucker for the editing, but I still found last night's ep exciting even though we got the expected Ryno boot. With the editing EPMB managed to make me think that we might have a chicks vs. Burton boot, OR an everyone vs. Rupert boot. I suspect that, even if there's no official chick alliance, they've at least been talking -- we just haven't been shown it. Which teases with the old 'plans revealed...' theory.   Top

GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-14-03, 12:37 PM (EST) 3. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" Well here's my take on individual motives, FWIW. Rupert: Based on his comments to Lil and the camera, he's a "Drakes 'til the end" kind of guy. He will want to boot Darrah and T next, then Lil and Burton, and take Christa and Sandra to the final 3. Sandra: Knows her strongest ally is Christa. Knows she can't beat Rupert and is looking for a way to ditch him, which T and Darrah may provide. Dislikes Jon, but could easily ally with him as both are snakes. Wants to boot Burton ASAP. Christa: Similar to Sandra, her closest ally. She doesn't like T and Darrah but might find them useful. Detests Jon. Obviously wants to boot Burton ASAP. Not sure of her relationship to Lil. Tijuana: Strategizing to stay in the game. Probably seen as less of an immunity threat than Darrah (see coconut challenge), which gives her time. Making some allies with Sandra. Seems likely to join alliance with Darrah, Burton, and Jon. Darrah: Does not seem to be an alliance powerplayer. Will probably do what T tells her to, since she is closest to her. Jon: Obviously a major schemer. Said in confessional he trusts Burton more than anybody else and is talking with Lil in previews, so must be working something out with them. Clearly not close to Rupert, Sandra, or Christa. Burton: Very threatened by Rupert. Has a close ally in Lil and an unsteady alliance with Jon. No known ties to the two women but no real reason to boot them either. Lillian: Not a strategic player. Her alliance with Burton will become pretty obvious soon, but she also seems to be bonding with the Drakes. Hard to peg how she will vote, though I guess she will follow Burton's lead. My guess is that the alliance of 5 will target Rupert. Lillian though might run back to the Drakes, creating a 4-4 tie or leading Jon or someone else to jump as well. I can envision scenarios for anyone other than Lillian or Sandra to go this week.   Top

cleaningwoman 12 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 11-14-03, 01:20 PM (EST) 6. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" The one thing that really bugs/bores me about this show is the obviousness of the strong/smart getting kicked off and the losers/low-lifes being left on the show. Everyone wants to go to the final vote with a loser by their side. So now Lil and Burton are big favorites because everyone wants to have them with them at the end. So one of these losers is probably assured of second place and a pile of money. It spoils the show for me when it is patently obvious that Rupert, love him or hate him, will be sidelined because he is strong and likeable, in favor of Burton or Lil, who should never be there in the first place.   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 11-14-03, 01:42 PM (EST) 7. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" Well to me it looks like Ryan O. was trying to get Burton and Lil into a Morgan alliance. We know this didn't work. You have Sandra orchestrating a chick alliance whether or not she can actually do that! Jon thinks he's the puppetmaster but he's a pawn and they'll take him as far as possible because they know he will never win. Burton's all for himself. Rupert is a goner the minute he loses an Immunity Challenge. So for that matter is Burton. Lil will be gone once she's no longer useful unless she ends up in some other alliance with Rupert, Sandra and Christa which COULD happen. I see one of either Rupert or Burton going next...I think it will be Burton. Then its bye to T and Darrah (unless they change alliances). Interesting through both T and Darrah voted against Ryan. Oh and one more thing, there seemed to be a mutiny brewing against Rupert. But then look at Immunity Challenge this past week. If they really wanted to eliminate Rupert this was the immunity challenge where it could be done. Why did they stack their coconuts elsewhere. There's something more to these alliances then we know.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 11-14-03, 04:17 PM (EST) 14. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" But Burton is strong and smart, at least as much as Rupert, so why is he a loser/low-life?   Top

udg 3381 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 11-14-03, 04:28 PM (EST) 16. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" LAST EDITED ON 11-14-03 AT 04:28 PM (EST) Because he got booted! --- UDG (edited to put the "T" in "got")   Top

Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-15-03, 00:09 AM (EST) 17. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" Cleaningwoman, that is exactly how I feel and I had posted my own rant about this very issue, just a few days ago. ::chuckle:: Great minds really DO think alike!   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 11-14-03, 03:00 PM (EST) 8. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" >The dominating Drake 3 are clearly >R/C/S. Jon is on >the outside, and so is >Burton. R/C/S are top >3, Jon and Burton are >4 or 5, and Lil >is 6. I don't agree that R/C/S are a tight, top alliance. It's clear from last night that Christa and Sandra are ready to cut Rupert as soon as there's an opening. I can almost guarantee that when Rupert goes it's by unanimous vote. Also, I think Lill ranks higher with Rupert than either Burton or Jon. >Also, Christa clearly does NOT like >T or D. We >will not see a chica >alliance in this series. >Sandra might go for it, >but Christa never will. I agree. There might be a chica AOC (alliance-of-convenience) for one episode, but it's not real. I could see Sandra coordinating this and Christa going along. >Lil will go with the Drakes >on everything if and only >if Burton thinks it is >a good idea. She >also will not side with >the Morgans without Burton suggesting >it. I completely agree. I think Burton wants to go to f2 with Lillian because he knows the Morgans won't vote for her and hopes some Drakes will show him loyalty. >We really have 3 swing people, >which makes this season stay >VERY interesting. I think what we really have are 3 swing pairings (Ti/Da, Bu/Li, Ch/Sa) with Jon and Rupert going solo. And I agree that it could be VERY interesting from here on out. -P "Never criticize a man until you've walked a mile in his shoes. Then you'll be a mile away and he won't have any shoes." - Bob Hinck   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-14-03, 03:05 PM (EST) 9. "Choices, Choices..." So, this week we have a preview indicating that Rupert is in trouble. They show us Tijuana, Darrah, Burton, Lil, and Jon. Remember last time we had the "can Rupert survive this betrayal" clip, for Trish's boot? Perhaps this is just misdirection. MB rarely gives us the boot in the previews. However, we do still have an theory forming that Rupert is next to go. Right now, I am for this theory. So, let's say Rupert gets booted. Then what? We have: Tijuana/Darrah Sandra/Christa Burton/Lil/Jon What will happen next? I've been wondering about this for awhile now. 1. Morgans and Ghosts send Christa out the door. 2. Ghosts go back to Drakes. 3. Female alliance forms, and Burton or Jon is gone. What a tangled web we weave... JSlice is da bomb   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-14-03, 03:18 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Choices, Choices..." If you believe the spoiler that Darrah and Lil are in the final two and a man is third, only one of your possibilities remains: B/J/L go with D/T. If you believe Sandra/Lil final two theory (which also if I recall had a man as third), then you are left with one of your possibilities: B/J/L go with S/C. The only way a man makes it to third with a women's alliance is an incredible immunity run (which is possible). So I guess you are correct, even given the spoilers we have, any combination of alliance partners you outlined could still be possible. It seems like this might turn into quite an interesting season.   Top

zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-14-03, 03:11 PM (EST) 10. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" >We really have 3 swing people, >which makes this season stay >VERY interesting. Burton, Lil, >and Jon are all swing >votes for Drake. Someone >needs to pull a Neleh >and realize that they can >either accept 4/5/6, or take >a shot at 1/2/3 with >Sean and Vee, er..., T >and Darrah. > >It's the difference between an exciting >S4 season or a boring >and predictable S3. I know this is a sore subject with many people, but arguably this fact about 3 swing voters may prove that the much hated "bring back the ghosts" twist turned this game into a much more interesting game. It is pretty difficult to have three people that feel on the fringe as B/L/J do. Maybe one person, but rarely three because of the way tribal alliances tend to form. It is only because of being voted off and then brought back that we can have the free agents to make the game more interesting. I know some people will never like this twist, and we still have to see how it plays out, but I think many people will have to reluctantly conceed that the twist made the game more unpredictible and more interesting to watch.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-14-03, 03:20 PM (EST) 12. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" I agree it made things more interesting. And I wonder how many people would complain about the twist if Rupert had been voted out early and the twist got him back in the game...   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 11-14-03, 03:49 PM (EST) 13. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" I think, too, that this is the reason behind ASS's 3 tribe format. MB has tried to avoid pagongs since S1. In S3, he gave us the tribe swap in an effort to break up early alliances. It worked but only to a point but didn't break up alliances enough resulting in some castaways getting unfairly shafted by the twist. In S4, he gave us the 3 strikes and you're out, to try to make alliances obvious and so try to tell the WOE (wretched of the earth) that they needed to form a coalition to defeat the established alliance. In S5, we had the fake merge and the volunteer tribal swap. That totally failed. Shii-Ann got totally screwed. In S6, we had a near complete tribe switch. That is, you went from a 0-8 gender split to a 3-3 gender split per tribe. This is the only way of reshuffling that leaves a minimum of old tribe member in each new tribe. That this worked (avoided a pagonging), I think is more a result of Rob C. shifting allegiances than anything else. In S7, we have the emergence of the ghost tribe. It creates the neceesary 3 faction at the merge which forces alliances to shift. well, maybe not forces but it allows for them. Problem is, nobody likes the thought that an outcast comes back to take a fist full of $$. So, in S8, we go with 3 tribes from the start. They may not need any further twists to prevent pagongings. My two cents. Another quality creation by JSlice   Top

anninvt2002 86 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 11-14-03, 04:18 PM (EST) 15. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" Or,,,,,never have tribes at all. From day one, which I have always wanted to see, every person for themself. I think it would provide for a constant shifting of alliances. Just a thought. Nothing else to do on a snowy vermont day than spend it in the wonderful, ever changing SB boards.   Top

Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-15-03, 00:32 AM (EST) 19. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" Hey there, a/s. Congratulations on your 300th post! I think you've nailed the reasoning behind the three-tribe format. All these twists are about the unpredictability, and EPMB has learned that being subtle about it doesn't guarantee a result. Thus, we've been hit over the head this time with the whopper twist of contestants getting a second chance. Next time, he's just going to go the whole hog and set things up from the outset to promote something other than simple two-directional hostility. Or, like anninvt2002 suggests, he's going to do us a series in which there's a single tribe from the beginning. I, too, would enjoy seeing that one play out. Go on then, Mark. There's a good one for you. Get to work!   Top

Loquatrix 640 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-15-03, 00:22 AM (EST) 18. "RE: New alliances plus obvious foes" A palpable hit, BR. ::grin:: I consider myself largely unmoveable by little emotional concerns and aloof to such trivial motivations and all that good stuff, but I grant you that had Rupert been eliminated and reinstated via the Twist I'd have had no doubt at all that this is the Best Twist Ever and can only play out beautifully. EPMB has a huge hit on his hands with Rupert and should seek to capitalize upon it by fixing everything so that Rupert wins in what turns out to be the most exciting, intriguing and cutthroat Survivor ever. No matter what, I applaud his extremely adept exploitation of this opportunity. I predict Rupert wins. There, I've said it. My name is Loquatrix and I am a Ruperholic.   Top

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