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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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OK, first the slingshot/plate challenge. Personally, my opinion is that given that in the past, the post-merge coconut chopping/break the plate/break the tribal mask type of challenges have typically been immunity challenges, this week will be no different. And drawing on past history, we know that traditionally a "weak" member of the tribe in majority typically wins the challenge as the initial focus of the castaways is typically on eliminating the members of the majority tribe as well as any strong "immunity run" threats. Among the Drake, that means Sandra, Christa, and Jon are favorites to win. We can throw Jon out because I think everyone hates him too much to let him win a reward. That leaves Sandra and Christa. Since Christa already demonstrated in the weight-bearing challenge that she's nearly as strong as some of the men, of the two, Sandra would seem to be the more likely winner. SANDRA it is.

As for the reward challenge, it seems to be some type of boring, non-physical, possibly trivia-like challenge. For those putting stock in CBS's "unlikely pair" claim, forgive us, but come on, fool us once... The bottom line is the reward challenge winner is likely insignificant in the rand scheme of things, but given both his physical strength and the wilderness skills that Rupert has exhibited, not only would have seem to be the favorite to win the challenge, but his absence from camp would explain the apparent plentiful "let's boot Rupert" talk that occurs during Episode 8.

Regarding the tribal boot, given that the "true Drakes" are still only up 4-4 versus the remaining three loyal Morgans and the turncoat Lillian, booting Rupert would seem to be extremely unlikely and foolish (not that that's ever stopped a Survivor tribe before.) Drake would seem to have two possible moves: A) boot RyanO, the sole remaining male and immunity threat within the former Morgan members, or B) boot Lillian, the non-Drake who allied with Drake during the merge but who likely won't be anymore satisfied being the fifth wheel of Drake than she was being the fifth member of Morgan. Booting Lillian would eliminate the ongoing uncertainty of her questionable allegiance and still leave the true Drakes up 5-3 over the remaining Morgans, however given that Drake has it's own internal questionable loyalty issues (Burton, Jon) the remaining three Drakes (Rupert, Sandra, Christa) would be foolish to so quickly put Burton or Jon back into a position where they could defect to the remaining three Morgan and either force a 4-4, or if they both defect, cause a 5-3 majority in the Episode 9 tribal council. Plus let's not forget the long-standing "old woman makes the Final Two" stories that at this point are considered gospel which indicate Lillian remains in the game for quite some time. Given such, the logical pick is to go with RYAN O

TO RECAP:

IMMUNITY CHALLENGE WINNER: SANDRA

REWARD CHALLENGE WINNER: RUPERT

BOOTEE: RYAN O... with LILLIAN as the alternate selection