|
|
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats,
but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out
how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are
encouraged to read the
complete guidelines.
As entertainment critic Roger
Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue
with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
|
|
"Parallels"
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-21-06, 09:19 PM (EST)
|
"Parallels" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-21-06 AT 09:21 PM (EST)Since most discussions are about Cao Boi, Billy and a hidden idol, the board is fairly quiet. Never shying away from heated discussions, I want to draw parallels between the players we see that have a chance to win this game and how they compare to previous winners. We don't see the same end game players and don't see the same strategies, so it should be fun to exchange our views. - Sundra is playing as a follower who was outside the majority alliance early but has made her way back into it. To win, she will need to play a very similar game to Vecepia's. - Jonathan is a schemer who has formed a solid alliance from the start. He is an older man who isn't liked by many other players. To pull off the win, he would need to play as well as Hatch but going against players who know the game a little more than Pagong. - Yul is a nice guy who wants to play with integrity but wonders if he can do that until the end. He had to deal with an older Asian man who wouldn't stop talking. He has an alliance mate who could be as calculating as Cirie was. You've guessed it, a win by Yul would remind me a lot of the win from Aras. - Ozzy was the leader of OldAitu and has adapted to become a follower in NuAitu. He threw a challenge to get rid of a troublemaker. He is a very athletic young man with curly hair. Yes, he reminds me of Ethan who was a follower to Lex but led his tribe in throwing a challenge to boot Silas. The difference is that Ozzy is better in challenges and has fishing skills we never saw from Ethan during A$$. - Becky is a cold and calculating player. She seems ready to boot everyone including her big brother Yul. She is playing a strategical game that, if successful would be comparable to either Tina or Brian's. It would be Tina's if she lets Yul bring her to the jury. Somehow, I see her wanting to dispose of her obstacles until she decides who comes along. That would be like Brian. - Parvati is always smiling, making friends and infiltrating alliances. That was Danni's game. She hasn't had as much success in challenges early on, but there is still time. Neither of their games depended on accumulating challenge wins anyway. Danni didn't flirt but Brandon and Rafe both found her charming. Parvati has done the same with Nathan and Adam. Of the 7 others, I only see Nathan with a small chance but I don't know his strategy yet. Which player will be successful? What do you think?
|
|
Top |
| |
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-22-06, 05:06 AM (EST)
|
1. "RE: Parallels" |
ComparisonsSundra = Vecepia Sundra is much younger and hotter. The obvious aside, Sundra is the 5th wheel on an alliance. Vecepia had Sean tight with her the whole time. Sundra's position is closer to Kathy O'Brien's. Sundra's chance to win would be to either win the final 3 immunities, ala, Jenna M, or to be the swing vote into the F3 and then win the FI, ala Chris or Danni. Jonathan = Hatch Does he pay his taxes? No one = Hatch. Hatch was the founder and leader of an alliance. Yul is the founder of their alliance. Hatch didn't have anything like a Yul to deal with. Jonathan is stronger in the challenges than Hatch ever was. Jonathan's current position is more similar to Rupert's in A$$. Rupert wins A$$ if he wins the final 2 immunities. Jonathan needs to do likewise, OR if he gets his tribe the majority at merge and is able to orchestrate the boots to the F2, THEN his game would most resemble Brian's. He is not as strong in challenges as Brian was, so far, though. Yul = Aras I was unaware Aras was concerned with integrity. Yul is far more mature and level-headed. Yul has the II. Aras did not. Yul has a strong alliance with Becky. Aras had no such luxury. If Yul wins, considering the II, I think it is an unique event. Considering he appears to be playing second fiddle to Jonathan's lead, a win by him might be more comparable to Ethan's. Ozzy = Ethan Ah... I don't get it. I don't know why Ozzy is on this list. Candice, Nate, Rebecca, and Adam all have better chances to win than he does. Becky = Brian Hahahahahaha!! And I = Brad Pitt. Brian was the leader of his tribe, strong in the challenges, vital around camp, and orchestrated the order of the boots. Becky was wise to form an alliance with Yul as Amber was to form an alliance with Rob M. If Becky wins this, Amber is certainly her best comparison. Parvati = Danni Though she'll never look as good as Danni, Parvati could be Danni if she does the following: vote out Adam next, helping Aitu win the remaining challenges and take the majority into the merge; be the last Raro member left because she is the weakest; be the swing vote to get into the F3; and then win FI to make the F2. If Parvati manages all that, then yes, she is dead on for Danni, minus the athletic body and Miss Kansas looks.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-22-06, 10:18 AM (EST)
|
2. "RE: Parallels" |
I don't care too much to get into all the comparison stuff but I would like to say that I think Ozzy should be on the list of possible winners. Something to me says that he has a lot more strategy and chances behind him then what we are seeing.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Aruba 3400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
10-22-06, 10:51 AM (EST)
|
4. "RE: Parallels" |
>Parvati = Danni > >Though she'll never look as good >as Danni, Parvati could be >Danni if she does the >following: vote out Adam next, >helping Aitu win the remaining >challenges and take the majority >into the merge; be the >last Raro member left because >she is the weakest; be >the swing vote to get >into the F3; and then >win FI to make the >F2. If Parvati manages all >that, then yes, she is >dead on for Danni, minus >the athletic body and Miss >Kansas looks. ROFLMAO!!!!! Good one, Iltarion. Were you able to add anymore conditions to that analogy???
Allow me to jump into the "what if" game. IF Cook Islands take a page out of Pearl Islands and allow a bootee to reenter the game; and IF Billy wins that honor; and IF Candice dumps Adam to rekindle her "love" for Billy; and IF Billy and Candice form a heated alliance; and IF they both make the F2, Candice probably wins IF the disgrunted Jury bellyaches about Billy being allowed to return to the Game. But that won't bother Billy none, because IF Candice wears an "I Love Billy" shirt (complete with skull and crossbones) to the Reunion Show, Billy will get on his knee and propose to Candice. And IF Candice accepts it will send Mark Burnett scrambling to produce another Survivor Wedding ceremony. IF all that happens, we'll have to add one more parallel to this thread: Billy/Candice (Bandice) = Rob/Amber (Romber)
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
Aruba 3400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
10-22-06, 10:31 AM (EST)
|
3. "RE: Parallels" |
Sundra = VecepiaI'd say you're pretty much dead-on with that comparison. Of course Vecepia doesn't come close to Sundra in the looks department, but I'm basing the comparisons to gameplay and strategy. Jonathan = Hatch Both schemers; both got into a strong alliance early. Hatch was a snake who was quoted as saying "what the heck...screw them all!" It has yet to be seen whether Jonathon will be a deceitful backstabber. The jury is out on this one. Right now I would compare him more to Brian. Yul = Aras Aras nice? Aras had integrity? Aras called out Melinda and Cirie saying both are the next to go. Yul would never perform that classless act. Aras wrongly tagged Terry as a female bashing chauvanist. Although he did later apologize, Yul would have never shown that same immaterity. Aras had to put up with Shane; Yul had to put up with Cao Boi...that's where the similiarity ends. Ozzy = Ethan It has some potential. But you're comparing apples with oranges with both tanking the IC. Whereas tribal flip-flops are a common fabric NOW on Survivor, understand that when it happened for the first time ever in Africa it was a cultural shock. I still don't agree with throwing a challenge, but it's more understandable to want to eliminate the outsider Silas from the tribe you started with and the alliance you worked hard to secure from Day 1. I don't exactly recall what day that occured but I'm pretty sure they were well into the season. Ozzy did it during the first couple days with a tribe he started out with. Sheer stupidity. Becky = Tina Absolutely; and if Yul's coattail is as long as Colby's was, it's another dead-on comparison. BUT you should have stopped while you were ahead with Becky because a parallel to Brian is non-existent and not happening. Perv-ati = Danni Parallel??? Howabout polar opposites. OK, both are nice to look at, but as I stated above, my reasoning is based on gameplay. Danni more than held her own in the challenges. During that Guatemala basketball game she was my pick for MVP. And when going against the women moving that gigantic ball, she dominated. Parvati has not come remotely close to standing out in any challenge. They both infiltrated alliances, but so have scores of other players. I'm sure players found Danni charming...she was friendly and congenial without "Ho-ing" herself around the male contingency. She didn't "accumulate" challenges, i.e., Terry; but won two crucial ICs at the end to control her own fate. Parvati would have to make it that far to see if she could win any individual ICs.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-22-06, 03:02 PM (EST)
|
5. "RE: Parallels" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-06 AT 03:02 PM (EST)Thanks guys, I appreciate the feedback. I knew the parallel with Brian would be the most controversial but remember this: She put this alliance together by talking first with Candice and then Jonathan. I also saw her on Insider and her tone of voice about the game was emotionless, a lot like Brian was. It is a shame we haven't had more confessionals about her. Here are some excerpts from her episode #3 confessional, the one were it came down to her or Cecilia. Becky: "When we first came back to the beach with our new tribe, my first thought was who can I trust in this tribe right now, who can I think I can possibly be in an alliance with and be able to talk openly with. I knew coming here this was the red tribe's home turf, so obviously Ozzy and Cecilia would be pretty tight, pretty close already. Knowing that, I think we were thinking of who else could I trust, and...Candice, we were talking and I think her and Jonathan were pretty strong too. That was the perfect four, and we were looking for a fifth. Jonathan mentioned Flica. The other tribe does have a lot of brawn, and I think, going down a list of the other tribe and what their strengths were and weaknesses were by going through our new members in our tribe. We were worried about that, but at the same time, a lot of the challenges are agility, have endurance, are mental. We thought we'd be able to pull together and win other challenges. My alliance wants to break down Ozzy and Cecilia. They're a tight bond. As a numbers thing, eliminate them, because I think JP from the other tribe is a huge threat for when they do merge, since JP would be a big threat we wanted to cut down the red tribe's numbers before they do merge. I'm right now leaning more towards Cecilia, Ozzy's great at catching fish, which does help, obviously. Definitely the fact that he likes to hunt and brings in food for the tribe is a plus to keep him. I think Ozzy is pretty athletic, also, when he has an idea, he goes with it. He's pretty opinionated, but in a good way. He's not wishy-washy, I like that about him. I don't give up. I'm not a quitter at all, so I'm going to fight until I can. I'm not just going to sit back, even though right now the numbers are against me, I'm not just going to sit back and go out like this. I'm going to give it a little more try, a little more fight, definitely." End of confessional. Add her talk to Yul about not trusting Jonathan and you see the calculating schemer. Of course she couldn't win as many challenges as Brian but it isn't because of his challenge prowess that the guy is mainly remembered. (Anyway, Becky would win against Jan and Clay in that final immunity!) You both see Jonathan as being closer to Brian than Hatch? That is interesting. I see the Hatch parallel because Jonathan isn't liked or trusted by his alliance. Brian was practically loved by Chuay Ghan until they saw him on TV. CB/Shane+Bruce, Flicka/Courtney, Becky/Cirie, you're right Aruba, The Yul-Aras parallel has more to do with the people surrounding them than a direct comparison. But remember, two parallel lines don't have the same equation. Aras didn't lie until he had to because of Shane's plotting with Terry. Certainly, he doesn't have Yul's maturity or affability but there are similarities nonetheless. As far as Ozzy is concerned, forget the why, both he and Ethan threw challenges. As far as his chances, the editors have shown many sides to his character. Candice wasn't even shown on exile island and had no confessionals this episode when Plan VooDoo also targeted her. He has more chances than both her and Rebecca who is also fairly ignored. I see I have a long road ahead to make either one of you appreciate Parvati's game and strategy! What will happen if she wins?!!
|
|
Top |
| |
|
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-23-06, 04:25 AM (EST)
|
7. "RE: Parallels" |
Michel, we are only 5 shows, 6 boots in. I probably didn't think overly much of Brian's game after 5 shows. If Parvati does win like Danni, then I won't think much of her game then either. If she wins on the back of her own alliance, and not as the swing vote to break up other alliances, then I would appreciate her game. Cao Boi got as much face time as anyone; so that doesn't necessarily mean Ozzy is sticking around. We will see. I think some people just like Ozzy, and so they are hoping for the best. Considering there is an alliance of 5 in his tribe, and he is not in it, he certainly is in danger. If he makes the merge, then anything is possible. I just rewatched Episode 3 and yes, Becky and Candice were the main instruments in forming their alliance. Jonathan also said that Becky was the chief person he needed to talk to. So, there was something obvious about Becky being the key to her alliance. After watching that again, I do appreciate Becky's strategical game a little more. In that respect, and pretty much that one only, she is similar to Brian so far. However, we are still premerge, and it was Brian's end game that was the most impressive thing about his game. Aruba, you give too much credit to Danni's challenge ability. Danni did OK during the team challenges, but she also happened to be on a strong tribe. She is a better basketball player than Lydia? That says a lot. During the individual challenges, if you remember, Danni came in last or 2nd to last, ahead of Lydia, during nearly every challenge. Steph, Cindy, and Rafe pretty much kicked her @ss every challenge. I would like to post a moratorium on talking about Danni, unless the poster includes a picture, then say whatever you want!
|
|
Top |
| |
|
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-24-06, 12:47 PM (EST)
|
16. "RE: Parallels" |
I AGREE! Michel, great job on the picture! To the idea that Danni didn't want to win challenges, including a new car- whatever. I don't buy it. And the basketball challenge was 3 on 3, not 1 on 1, and Stephanie was handicapped by having Lydia on her team, which she much bemoaned. And the earth ball challenge was dominated by that lady that hurt her ankle, Amy? or Ann? I don't remember Danni even participating, though I'm sure she did. Enough on that. Great picture though!
|
|
Top |
| |
Colonel Zoidberg 3662 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
|
10-23-06, 08:41 AM (EST)
|
8. "RE: Parallels" |
Let's see...Sundra - Maybe she will have to play a Vecepia game. I always get an Alicia vibe from her, though; maybe it;s the cornrows. Alicia was always on the outside, especially in All-Stars; these people never win. Vecepia knew where she stood the entire game and had an alliance with Sean, even when she distanced herself from it. Sundra's chances: Not looking good. Jonathan - He seems to be trying to be another Tom. He has an inner alliance, an outer alliance, and everyone else. It's what I call the Oceania setup, after the government in "1984." It worked like a charm for Tom. However, if Richard Hatch will be hard to duplicate, Tom Westman will be even harder. Jonathan's chances: Not too good either. Yul - Second fiddle in his alliance. Perhaps he's in the outer alliance. Perhaps, when he's down to the last man, he will either take steps to turn the tide against the majority or he will work with a majority member to do in the alliance. Assuming we're looking at a Caucasian takeover, a Yul win is Chris part two. Yul's chances: Maybe, maybe not. Ozzy - Only one person pulled off the "let's throw a challenge" ploy and won, and to Ethan's credit, he had operatives on the other tribe. Ozzy didn't. He was, to put it politely, bat$#!* insane. Yes, he's a provider and a very hard worker. Rupert was a killer fisherman and Bobby Jon was a hard worker. Neither of them won because they either didn't have a clue how to play the game or they set themselves up in a weak position. Ozzy's chances: He's dead, Jim. Becky - To compare her to Brian is a bit much, simply because Brian was more vocal and wasn't described as a "princess." He was The King. Becky would need to be The Queen, and Cao Boi's already ruined that term for this season. However, for Becky to be The Queen, she could enlist a King. Hello, Yul. Yul and Becky = Rob and Amber, hopefully without the romantic entanglement...though in Romber's defense, at least they competed against each other when they had to. Becky's chances: I could see it. Parvati - The happy flirt. Amber, maybe? The one who doesn't declare an alliance but always works with the majority. Danni doesn't quite fit here, at least not right after the merge. She's not loud enough to be Sandra, but the strategy of sticking with the strong alliance is Sandra's game. Parvati's chances: It could happen.
|
|
Top |
| |
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-23-06, 08:52 AM (EST)
|
9. "RE: Parallels" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-23-06 AT 08:57 AM (EST)I like the Ozzy/RobFaddah parallel. They both have been shown as devious leaders but with redeeming qualities. Both won challenges for their teams. Rob was a funnier guy though. As far as the sidekick, maybe it isn't to late for Ozzy to find someone: Sundra checking out Ozzy, unless Candice wants another guy to fall for her. I hope the fall isn't out of the tree! Iltarion: Thanks for giving it a chance. You're right, it is early. I enjoy trying to see what is the story of the season and those parallels came to mind. The Jonathan/Hatch and the Parvati/Danni parallels came to mind first. I had to look for that picture so I hope it allows me to pronounce her name again! Cao Boi did have a lot of air time but it was simply because of his originality, not really about his story as a Survivor player. Ozzy's airtime is all about his game, strategy and position. Look how people still consider it stupid to have thrown a challenge and rightfully so. The editors went out of their way to make Billy look as bad as they could to make it somewhat understandable to want him out. It should mean something. ETA: I didn't mean to ignore your post Colonel, we just posted at the same time. Nice comparisons you have. Parvati doesn't have sandra's spunk but we'll have to wait and see. Becky would dump Yul, I think, dispose of him if you will. Amber never would have but then Rob was hated by the jury.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-23-06, 10:14 AM (EST)
|
10. "RE: Parallels" |
I am a fan of Ozzy, but my opinion on his chances of winning are not at all fan based. Here's a more specific list of why I think he is still in the running to win Survivor.Ozzy has shown that he can mesh into different rolls. When we first saw Ozzy he was clearly the outspoken leader in his tribe. Whatever Ozzy said seemed to go whether it was how to build shelter, catch chickens, or who to vote out. Most people have a hard time transitioning into a lesser role once they have this position. Not Ozzy. Once Aitu was formed it became clear that the leadership role was well taken from Ozzy. Suddenly he turned into the outsider and then the guy who works hard around camp, at challenges and is open for an alliance deal. I have seen plenty of "leaders" crumble once a shake up in their tribe occured or during merge so I give alot of credit to Ozzy for stepping back but not so far back that he isolates himself. Ozzy's game mentality: he knows that he has to be sneaky and he's not willing to allow himself to play the "I don't want to be mean" strategy. Ozzy didn't trust Billy nor did he want to continue carrying the guy so he took him out in means that most people wouldn't do. He seemed to get along better with Cao Boi and Flicka but he turned his back on them because it was more beneficial towards his game. People that win this game have this mentality. Loyalty belongs to those who further one in a game not keep them back. Ozzy is alone. All of his original tribe members are gone. Cao Boi is gone and Flicka is probably next (those were two people he seemed to be around the most), so now he is left to himself. I could see that Ozzy was being thought of in the last episode as someone who could be pulled into an alliance. Yul and Becky seemed to trust him enough to let him know that they were not going to vote Jonathan and I wouldn't doubt if Ozzy was given the impression that they no longer trust Jonathan. Ozzy is seen as a threat but it's only a physical threat. If the majority feels that they can pull Ozzy in they will be willing to keep him over someone who they feel is a mind threat, such as Jonathan. Jonathan seems to be the only one at this point who doesn't want Ozzy to make it to merge but with so much distrust clouding around him it may not make a difference what he thinks. Things have shifted in the tribe. Jonathan truly seemed clueless during TC. Yul didn't seem to let him in on the fact that Cao Boi wanted him out, why is that? Yul seems the type who would share most information (with the exception of having HII) with his alliance. Jonathan also seemed to feel the need to casually defend the perception of the role he plays in the tribe after Yul pointed him out as a leader. Candice is being very loose and stupid with her cards mouthing I love you's to Adam. Yul and Becky are clearly suspicious as well as Sundra. Flicka will probably act ridiculously with Cao Boi being ousted, giving way too much information to Nate. All this will keep Ozzy out of everyone's minds at least for a bit. Nate's new information will probably be shared and come merge people will be too busy trying to mess with the Asian/White alliance to even bother with Ozzy, who has a very open opportunity to walk in the shadows all while making deals. These are all pretty good reasons as to why I think Ozzy does have a chance in this game. The Asians and the Whites are the main focus of this game at this point and people will play them against each other. There's already the beginnings of it in the Aitu. As far as comparing Ozzy's airtime with Cao Boi's I have to agree with Michel. Cao Boi was too interesting of a character to not give a decent chunk of face time to, after all they are thinking of ratings, where Ozzy's face time has been more based on his game play. I don't really see how Ozzy can even be compared to Rupert or Bobby John. Rupert was the nice guy who liked to keep it honest, with the exception of stealing the other tribes shoes. Bobby John was mainly the same way and when he did backstab he did it in weakness and never seemed to think further into the game. Ozzy seems to have his game face on all the time. I think the only time I could see him falter was when what's her face was voted out? It was one person from his tribe that he had and he was left out of the vote altogether, but he picked himself right back up.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Colonel Zoidberg 3662 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
|
10-23-06, 02:09 PM (EST)
|
11. "RE: Parallels" |
>I don't really see how Ozzy >can even be compared to >Rupert or Bobby John. Rupert >was the nice guy who >liked to keep it honest, >with the exception of stealing >the other tribes shoes. Bobby >John was mainly the same >way and when he did >backstab he did it in >weakness and never seemed to >think further into the game. >Ozzy seems to have his >game face on all the >time. I think the only >time I could see him >falter was when what's her >face was voted out? It >was one person from his >tribe that he had and >he was left out of >the vote altogether, but he >picked himself right back up. The Bobby Jon comparison goes like this - Ozzy and Bobby Jon are both known for their strong work ethic. No one's going around calling either of them lazy. They're tough in challenges, but they're beatable; Ozzy seems stronger in challenges, but his foil was JP whereas BJ's was Westman. At the same time, BJ gathered coconuts out of trees pretty much on his own and was always working; Ozzy catches food for the tribe every day, with a little help from Jonathan. (I say "a little" because I'll give credit where credit is due; Ozzy's the one doing most of the work.) However, neither seems to be a strong game player. Bobby Jon was always in a minority, it seems. On Ulong, he made it to the end of the tribe and got beaten by Stephenie; had he made it out of Ulong, he would have been fighting for his life and likely gone at the first opportunity. Simply put, he didn't have an "in" with Tom, Katie, and Ian the way Stephenie did; it didn't do Steph a lot of good, but it would have done BJ even less. In Guatemala, he was an unnecessary fifth vote to oust Blake, he was constantly targeted until the merge, and he was spared tenth place by pleading with Stephenie. He was very much alone out there, and he made very little of it. Danni was alone out there and she won the game. Who does Ozzy really have now? Jonathan has said he would boot Ozzy, and Candice would likely go along with that. He doesn't seem to have a formal alliance with Sundra or Flicka; frankly, Sundra seems more comfortable in the majority and Flicka could have just kept her mouth shut and voted off Cao Boi. Ozzy went along with it because, well, it wasn't his neck on the line. The bottom line is, Bobby Jon was never in a strong position. Ozzy's not in a strong position either. It's his own fault, too...if Aitu tries, they probably beat the struggling Hiki tribe, who goes to TC to vote off...probably Stephannie. Then at the switch, ummm...for no good reason, I'll put Billy in Steph's place. The bond still exists to boot Cecilia, sure, but on the other tribe, Billy could have been invited in with the lazy men and, since Steph is already gone, Cristina would be out, followed by...well, then they can dump Billy. So the net gain is that JP still sticks around. Then at the next vote, if JP doesn't get tossed by Raro, throwing the challenge remains a bad idea, as Ozzy will still have help on the opposing tribe. Now, he's all alone. That and his tribe imploded anyway, partially thanks to him, so he set himself up in a bad position anyway by imploding and being on the outside.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-23-06, 03:26 PM (EST)
|
13. "RE: Parallels" |
I can see some of your points but at the same time I see Ozzy being alone as maybe an asset. Right now the two targeted groups are clearly the Asians/Whites (if I remembered their original tribe names I would use them), so one of those two groups is going to need to start looking for others to draw in. Flicka is a definate no as she is considered the female version of Cao Boi. Sundra is ideal with the exception that she is too quiet and unlikely to make waves or be a threat so she would probably stick around over people like Yul, Becky, Candace or Jonathan. So, why not let it be Ozzy? He has no one, which leaves him in a more desperate place plus he will be seen as a threat due to his physical capabilities lessening the target for others who have this same threat hovering over them. I think once it becomes too obvious that Yul has the HII or once others who are more believable in finding the thing go to Exile Island Jonathan will have to do some work to save his butt. I think Yul and Becky are going to pull Ozzy in. I could be wrong but I'm trying to go the less obvious route because it seems to work.As far as the Raro goes, well I think they voted those who were more likely to skip out on them come merge. I don't think there was a level of trust with J.P., plus he had a demeanor of capability to lie, Steph was on the outside and could have been swept up by those she meshed better with, Cristina was clearly on the outside and would have made deals elsewhere. With those people gone, it frees Ozzy up to make new loyalties.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
Colonel Zoidberg 3662 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
|
10-24-06, 03:11 PM (EST)
|
20. "RE: Parallels" |
Ozzy being alone is an asset if he plays it right. I don't think he's playing a very good social game at this point. If he were playing a good social game, he would have been the one to align with Yul and Becky, putting Jonathan and Candice on the run. That or he would have been able to swing a Becky ouster by rallying Flicka, Cao Boi, and Sundra. Flicka and Cao Boi were definite outsiders, and I don't think Flicka ever really felt at home with her original tribe. Sundra didn't either; by taking those people in and putting the others on the run, Ozzy could be running the Aitu tribe. Jonathan and Becky would be history, or maybe Candice and Becky.All he had to do was this - figure out that Jonathan and Candice were aligning with Yul and Becky. By simple math, that's four. Aitutaki was originally a tribe of nine. Nine minus four is - come on people, this goes way back to Marquesas, but we can do it - five. Five is greater than four. Therefore, Ozzy, Sundra, Cecilia, Cao Boi, and Flicka are greater together than Jonathan, Candice, Becky, and Yul. If Ozzy could pull that off, he would be in a very powerful position come the merge. What's left of the old raro alliance would try to reunite, but with Nate or Rebecca on the other tribe, that could be squashed. Instead, he allowed his closest ally to be picked off. Now, the Raro-Puka alliance is the majority on new Aitu; Flicka, Sundra, and Ozzy are in no position to overthrow anyone. Ozzy's job, at this point, is to survive to the merge. If that means selling Flicka down the river, he needs to do it. If he tries to make a move that's too ambitious, he's dogmeat. That said, he will make the merge. Flicka will not be trusted. The old Raro will go into the merge with four. Old Puka will go in with...either three or four; Jenny might not last. Ozzy's biggest problem will be the target on his back for his strength. If he fails to win immunity but does well in challenges, people will be scared of him. He won't last.
|
|
Top |
| |
HeavenlyGrl 77 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
|
10-23-06, 03:14 PM (EST)
|
12. "RE: Parallels" |
Jonathan/Hatch No way, don't see this for a second. Good ol' convicted Rich pretended to need his crew, but really he didn't give a crap. (And I just don't see Jonathan dropping his pants.) Jonathan's alliance will turn on him, and he will be gone. Ozzy/Ethan Ethan was such a nice guy, that's why he went to the end. Ozzy is a provider and really strong in the challenges, that's why he will make it to the end.Yul/Aras I don't really think Yul has a tight alliance, excupt for Becky, so this could be the closest comparison. Parvati/Dani Hmm, both of them played nice and smiled sweetly till the end... their strategies do seem similar, and I do believe that it will pay off for Parvati. Becky/Brian Don't see this for a second. Becky may be as untrustworthy as Brain, but she is not clever or does not have enough people believing she can get them anywhere like Brian did. I think Becky's days are numbered. **Excupt for Becky and Jonathon, I do think these people all have a very good chance of making it to the end, if the "white" alliance is broken up before or immidiatley after the merge.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-24-06, 12:52 PM (EST)
|
17. "RE: Parallels" |
I don't see where all the gameplay talk about Ozzy is coming from. The guy has made one strategical decision all game, and that was a disastrous one. Someone please tell me what other game decision Ozzy has made. Maybe there is a mystery episode or something I missed. Going along with the majority and voting for Cao Boi is not a strategical decision any more than throwing a rock from shore and hitting the ocean is being "accurate."
|
|
Top |
| |
|
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-24-06, 01:30 PM (EST)
|
18. "Ozzy on Insider" |
In episode #4 we had noted a change in Ozzy that the editing kept hidden. He started by saying he didn't want to play anymore but then, after the break, he catches 12 fishes and single-handedly won the 2 challenges. It figured he had talked to someone and gotten an understanding. This week's Insider interview gave us the proof. It is a great read into his game: We're eating as much as possible, because I really do feel like that was a major factor in our win today. We are a well-fed tribe. I've been making it my duty to go out every day and catch enough fish for everyone to stay strong, and I think that showed today. "I'm just trying to stay fluid, trying to adapt to whatever comes along. As long as I can have a good relationship with everybody on the tribe, I think that people are going to want me around as long as possible, so that they can eat, because they know that food is a key factor." "Oh, I'm definitely gonna exploit every advantage I have in this game, Yul being one of them. He's a confidant. I made a move in the very beginning, after Cecilia was voted out. I made a little show, 'I'm pissed off, it should have been fair,' blah blah blah. Next morning, bright and early, I went up to Yul and Jonathan and I said: 'that's it guys, my alliance is gone, the only alliance I had is gone. I'm a free agent now. Whoever is honest with me, then they can count on me to be the same with them.' Yul understood that, and I think Yul respects honesty, and he is in turn going to return that. And that's a great thing to have. He's giving me an inside track into what the girls are thinking, and right now the girls are the three solid ones. I saw it coming." "Honestly, I gotta do what I can to get as far as possible in the game. I don't wanna sound like a jerk when I say that, I wanna do it as nicely and respectfully as I can, but I'm also here to play a game. It's that whole thing, a game, so my personal integrity does have a lot to do with it, I'll try to do it as nicely as possible, without making an a$$ of myself."
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-24-06, 02:34 PM (EST)
|
19. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
Thanks for the info. Michel! Last episode gave me the feeling that Ozzy was comfortable with Yul,it was just the impression I got from their interactions while in the shelter talking about plan Voodoo.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-24-06, 04:51 PM (EST)
|
21. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
Those comments don't even sound like Ozzy. It sounds like a totally different personality. Jonathan has already said he doesn't trust Ozzy; so he clearly hasn't won his way in with everyone. Being the "provider" only works for so long. If Flicka didn't out herself last episode, Ozzy would probably be gone next Aitu loss.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-25-06, 07:34 AM (EST)
|
23. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
It seems to me that people don't trust Jonathan all that much either.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-25-06, 11:12 AM (EST)
|
24. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
The confessional where Jon said he didn't trust Ozzy was a voice over so it could have been taken from an earlier time when the reshuffle had just occurred. Their fishing trips could have built some trust btw Jon and OzzyAlso Ozzy when voting for Cb said he needed to do it to get to Jon...ie get his trust... Ozzy's playing the game...you just don't see it...bc "strategies/alliances revealed, don't succeed" He's my favorite to win this thing...you have to look deeper into the editing than just what the editors show you
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-25-06, 02:29 PM (EST)
|
25. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
I'm just happy that I'm not the only Ozzy believer in this group
|
|
Top |
| |
|
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-25-06, 11:30 PM (EST)
|
26. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
Actually, no, Jonathan mentioned the fish Ozzy was catching; so the confessional was at least somewhat recent. Jonathan is playing the game. Ozzy catching fish just makes him a threat as far as Jonathan is concerned. And it doesn't matter if Jonathan isn't trusted by all. He still has an alliance supporting him. If Candice, Yul, or Becky cut him loose, they would only be hurting their own chances. Rupert got a similar edit, and he barely made the jury; so spare me the "watch the editing" suggestion. Yul and Becky both said they didn't really trust Ozzy when they recruited Sundra into their alliance. He is clearly on the outside of the alliance unless he changed Jonathan's mind and is his ace in the hole, which I doubt. That leaves Ozzy with just one chance to win this thing- be a swing vote post merge to take down the Aitu alliance. The problem with that is the "swing vote" method utilized by Sandra, Chris and Danni has never worked for someone who is strong in challenges. Typically, alliances want to pick a swing vote from someone who is a nonthreat.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
nazpink 1058 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
|
10-26-06, 07:46 AM (EST)
|
27. "RE: Ozzy on Insider" |
I just think it's torture that they are doing a recap tonight so we will have no clue who is really ousted next!
|
|
Top |
| |
mavs_fan 299 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
|
10-27-06, 00:06 AM (EST)
|
28. "RE: Parallels" |
I'll throw my 2 cents in:Sundra - I think shes a cross between Vecepia very & Sandra. All three of them play an Under the Radar game. Vecepia found herself fairly early on, on the wrong side of the numbers game. But, she kept her head down and let folks vote off bigger threats. She was able to hang around until the late stages of the game, and got lucky. Sandra was able to stay in a numerically superior position alliance wise by agreeing to vote anyone out she was told to. So she had a LITTLE more luxury as far as sticking her head up from time to time. Sundra lost her alliance partners early, but rejoined an alliance as a reliable vote. I expect her to keep her head down - but I don't think this will work for her like it did Sandra & Vecepia. I think This season is Going to be Radically different in the way people are voted off compared to prior seasons. This season I think will be about Merit more than alliances. Jonathan - I can see the Hatch comparisson. Hatch stuck a deal with Rudy, the one guy He KNEW wouldn't go back on his word. Maybe Jonathan sees the characteristics in Yul, a guy who want to play with integrity - but Yul for all of his character already has an alliance partner in Becky that may very well trump his partnership with Jonathan. As an aside it's interesting to me how Hatch history has become some SURVIVOR genius. Susan also recognized the value of an alliance with a sub alliance with a solid F2 partner - It's just that her partner flipped on her when it was down to 2-2. Also, the Reason Hatch won the season rather than Kelly was that Greg seemed to consider the whole game an absurd joke and had Hatch & Kelly pick a number to give Hatch the 4-3 win. I can also see a good comparison of Jonathan to Tom. I think both of them wanted to sit at the center of their web as it were and have their Lieutenants create Sub-alliances and feed them info. In Toms case it was Lieutenant Greg with his sub alliance partner, and Lieutenant Ian with his sub alliance partner. When it came time to decide which sub-alliance to go with, Tom Chose to go with Ian and Katie. Similarly Jonathan I think has Lieutenant Yul with his sub alliance Becky, and Lieutenant Candice with her sub alliance Sundra. We will see if it works out for Jonathan as well as it did for Tom. I doubt it because I don't think Yul is Ian. Tom could beat Ian anytime he decided he needed to. I'm less confident of Jonathans chances against Yul. Yul - I know the intention was to compare the players to past winners, and I guess Aras is as good as any a better than most prior winners to compare him to. But I would compare Yul more to Rudy or Colby than any past winners. I think Yul will prove to be very loyal to his alliance partner Becky. It didn't work out for Colby or Rudy although it got both of them close. Maybe it will work out better for Yul. Ozzy - I blasted him for throwing a challenge to vote off a player - One of his OWN TEAM MATES which was worse in my view than Ethan Voting off Silas. But, In retrospect Billy was a lose canon, and clearly didn't fit in. If Ozzy felt he was a threat to flip to another alliance, maybe it wasn't the worse decision. Particulary if Ozzy knew a reshuffle might be coming soon so the chance to get rid of him might slip away. I'm can see your comparison to Ethan. Two guys who want to keep from offending anyone and become a challenge asset, and a work horse. Again however I think a better match up for Ozzy would be Rob C. (didn't Jeff Probst call him the best player to not win the game?) Rob C. said the key to the game was to know YOUR position in the alliances, and to know where everyone else THOUGHT they were in the alliances. If you aren't in an alliance that gets you to the end you've got to flip. I think Ozzy will absolutely know where he stands and where everyone else THINKS THEY STAND and use this as best he can. Parvati - So far She reminds me a lot of Jenna M. Folks want to be in her alliance because it's the Cool Kids Clique. Funny think is, While I held this against Jenna, I don't hold it against Parvati. Maybe it's because Jenna's Clique seemed to have snobbish exclusionary quality to it where as Parvati's clique hasn't been shown in that light. If Parvati makes it to the merge and she finds herself on the short end of the numbers game, her game may evolve into more of a Danny game. But right now, I think she's playing Jenna M's game. I never felt Danny was playing the Cool Kids Clique game. Becky - I guess of past winners, a comparison to Tina is most apt. I don't care for the Brian comparison because he was in my opinion the BEST player all time. And Becky is no where near Brians level in this game. A Shii Ann comparison would be more valid I think. Shii Ann fell far short in the game because she seemed to be really lacking in social skills. I think Becky lacks the social skills that Tina had atleast to some degree. We will see if Beckys alliance with Yul, serves her as well as Tina's alliance with Colby.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
|
10-27-06, 00:46 AM (EST)
|
29. "RE: Parallels" |
Some great insights and points. I agree with a lot of it, especially Brian being the best player of all time. The only real comparison I see that is a big stretch is Ozzy with Rob C. Rob was useless in challenges and around camp. He couldn't provide for himself let alone anyone else. These things hurt him pre-merge but prevented him from being a target postmerge. Ozzy does not have any such luxuries. Also, Rob controlled nearly every vote he participated in. Ozzy only controlled the Billy boot, which JP was also for. He had no control over Cece being booted, and Cao Boi was gone whether Ozzy voted for him or not.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
Aruba 3400 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
|
10-27-06, 07:42 AM (EST)
|
30. "RE: Parallels" |
>Also, the Reason Hatch won >the season rather than Kelly >was that Greg seemed to >consider the whole game an >absurd joke and had Hatch >& Kelly pick a number >to give Hatch the 4-3 >win. Let me go on record by saying that I personally think Hatch is a pathetic scoundrol in real life...but as far as Survivor is concerned, he was one of the best. It's easy after 12 seasons to know the obvious strategies which were not so obvious during Season 1. Some call it genius, others call it foresight; but watching Bonero several more times it's apparent that Hatch was light years ahead of all the outcasts that season as far as gameplay was concerned. THAT more than anything contributed to his victory. To say that Hatch won the game because of Greg's "pick a number" is as asburd as the joke you thought Greg was. WAAAYYYY too many other factors to call THAT the "swing" vote. Greg, like Gervase, and probably others simply did not want to vote for either. Personally watching Marquese and Pearl Isalnds I can understand that dilemma. For the record Gervase was quoted as saying that right up to TC he wasn't sure who to vote for because he didn't want either to win, but since he had to write down a name he was leaning toward Richard. It wasn't until Sue starting crying sour grapes and announced that her vote would go to Richard, did Gervase lean toward Kelly. He was later quoted as saying that he did not want to vote the same way as a "sore loser". So we can rationalize that if Sue hadn't been a poor sport, the vote could have gone 5-2 Richard and Greg's "absurd joke" would not have mattered. Also Richard jumped on Rudy's integrity bandwagon first and was rewarded for it. That was more instrumental as a reason why he won that season. Had Kelly thought of it first, I'm sure Rudy would have stuck with her and given her his vote at TC. Then the vote would have gone 4-3 Kelly regardless of Greg's "absurd joke". My point is far too many factors and reasons to rest the outcome on one man's rationale for voting. Finally...how do we know Richard truly came the closest to this so-called number Greg had in his mind??? Did he write it down anywhere BEFORE Richard and Kelly guessed??? NO. He could have very well been leaning toward Richard all along but since he didn't want to vote for either, he was not going to give them the satisfaction of thinking that they were his "choice".
|
|
Top |
| |
|
|
|
michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-27-06, 08:55 AM (EST)
|
32. "RE: Parallels" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-27-06 AT 09:16 AM (EST)Mavs_fan: I like your parallels and that certainly is a lot to analyze. Time will tell of course if any of this is accurate but to comment on them: I see where you are coming from comparing Jonathan's alliances to Tom's side alliances. But I see Tom more as having a team rather than side alliances pre-merge. Avoiding TC helps that, but you have to work for it. (or have Ulong as opponents!) Jonathan, like Terry, has done little to get the whole team together, comfortable he has the numbers. Tom was also the provider and a bigger reason for their early wins. Yul, Aras and Colby have all been well liked by their tribes and had loyal allies. Colby won the challenges Aras couldn't. Aras had the ally that could lose the jury vote. I think Yul's individual challenge results and final decisions will determine which one he parallels more. I'm not sure of the Parvati/Jenna parallel but that can be my personal bias. Jenna M wasn't even playing the game at this point and wanted to quit later on. I saw Parvati as a player on day 1, suggesting Raro should toast to their kick-a$$ performance in the opening "abandon ship" exercise and making alliances with everyone since then. Jenna was playing "Junior high revisited" aligning with the "popular girls" only. See the bias I have!! IF Becky wins, and that is a "BIG IF" but her position warrants it, she'll have to have played a game comparable to Tina if Yul brings her along. IF she makes her own way, especially betraying or taking advantage of Yul and his idol, then the comparison to Brian will arise. I am getting well ahead of myself, I know but it got reactions from you guys On Survivor live, Jenna M says Ozzy reminds her of Ethan. I found it funny more than anything else! She may not be the best reference but at least she knows Ethan better than any of us! PS: I have to avoid any Rob C comments and I don't have a picture to get around the Danni moratorium that Iltarion decreed but she also knew how to make friends !
|
|
Top |
| |
|
emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
|
10-27-06, 01:40 PM (EST)
|
33. "RE: Parallels" |
On Survivor live, Jenna M says Ozzy reminds her of Ethan. I found it funny more than anything else! She may not be the best reference but at least she knows Ethan better than any of us! I think this has to do more with looks than anything She did say that Ethan and Ozzy were both the providers etc. But interestingly, in one of the early SLive shows Jenna said that Ethan likes Yul and Jenna said that's bc they are playing basically the same game as likable one etc. I just don't think Ethan could ever win this game now, oh unless a Kim J/Colby/Lil like person won the F3 challenge--no one else (including Jenna M!) would ever take someone like Ethan to F2 with him/her. Just like no one will let Yul get anywhere near the F2...he has to hope he can use his Idol to get him to F3 and then win the F3 challenge, otherwise... A little sidenot Jenna M has become quite the savvy Survivorette. I did not like her in her season but I like her now after watching SLive.
|
|
Top |
| |
|
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
|
|