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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-20-03, 08:32 PM (EST) "Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Since, for yet another week, we have lots of questions and very few answers, I decided to start this thread again. This time I'll start with the RC and IC situation: Reward Challenge: Appears to be blowing cannons at targets in the water, with the prize being steak and lobster. It has been pointed out by others that there are six steaks showing on ice. There are 6 Drakes. If the food is prepared, given out or shown at the Reward Challenge, then it would be necessary to have six steaks; however if it is at a different location such as in Thailand, then there would only need to be six if the winning tribe had six members. We see Morgan and Drake both cheering on players. Can any one tell if the shot of Trish is after firing a cannon or could it possibly be cheering on from the sidelines? Also, noteworthy, the looter makes a confession to the other tribe. Of course, this could be total misdirection: we never saw any one get mad about the shower on screen and the IC a few episodes back was nowhere near nailbiting; so the confession could be pretty lame. And, the RC victory brings about a much needed morale booster, which has led some to believe that Drake will win because they've lost 3 challenges in a row. However, Morgan has won 1 challenge because of Drake throwing it, one with Rupert's help, and the gross food challenge by a 2nd, so this RC could be the first challenge Morgan wins totally on their own. After all, Lillian did say that all this tribe needed was fish before getting booted. Well, they got their fish. Reward Challenge can go either way; I give a slight edge to Morgan since the morale boost leads you to believe Drake will win, and the strength from the food can help Morgan with the strength challenge. Lots of protein! Immunity Challenge:There has been much speculation as to the nature of this challenge. From the vidcaps, it looks like the weights are not distributed evenly. Sandra is most likely sitting out for Drake. Ryan is seen jumping in victory?? in front of the block that Osten was on. Possibly, the two loaders have a choice as to where to load the sandbags. It looks like Drake chooses to load up Rupert right off the bat because the vidcaps of Rupert have no visible bags on the other two. And Morgan has Rhino as the last left standing. I think the two loaders are required to keep loading bags two at a time anywhere they choose to until one tribe only has one left standing. The combination of Rhino's victory dance and the fact that Morgans seem to have endgame edge leads me to believe Morgan wins Immunity, plus the vidcaps of Shawn and Rupert lead me to believe that there is after IC scheming going on. Boots: Rupert: The title of the Episode "me and my Snake" again seems to on the obvious side refer to Rupert and Balboa. There was a good post about taking care of a snake to have it bite you in the end. When Rupert and Andrew were hugging, Trish was looking on in disdain. From the Yahoo Insider, it seems that Trish is the one calling the shots. If there is an expected merge by the tribemates after the next Tribal Council, the Drake majority may more likely dish Rupert than Shawn. Burton told us Rupert was an outsider and he wasn't sure he was in the alliance with the rest. If the alliance of Christa/Trish/Sandra target Jon or Shawn, they may fear the other to jump ship after the merge. If they dump Rupert, the duo of Shawn/Jon would more likely stay with the Drakes. Does Trish have a Jon/Shawn/Trish and a Sandra/Christa/Trish alliance going on? Does the snake Balboa live? If not, possibly the merge tribe is named in eulogy for Rupert and his snake? Could Rupert have been the initial target of Jon when he made his comment that there are bigger threats than Sandra to go after? Rupert may take the fall for helping the Morgan tribe win all these challenges, and for fear that he may jump ship post merge, especially if the perceived merge is 5-5. Christa:Christa has been previously a target. I am starting to think Snewser moved her to the down-thumb category when he found out a BLONDE was on the ghost tribe. Since Michelle went from neutral to potential suckitude last minute, he may have?? thought the info he got about Michelle was about Christa?? Christa seems to be in strong with Rupert/Sandra/Jon and Trish. Christa/Sandra/Trish would be silly to break up their alliance. They have a majority within the tribe, so the only feasible answer would be Rupert joining Shawn and Jon and forcing a tie. Possibly the two of them aren't sure which one of them is targeted? Could Shawn go to Rupert and tell him the girls want to vote him out and he joins with Shawn and Jon and forces a tie? Jon: He is a trouble maker but from booted castaways, we are told he is nowhere as bad as he is made out to be in terms of annoyance. He seems to be pulling strings and it doesn't seem that his story is over yet. I for one am still NOT rooting for him. With Drake predicting merge, and Jon predicted as the weakest Drake, he would appear to be safe. Shawn: Sandra is seen saying; Shawn better be careful or he may be packing his bags. Does this mean that someone else is the target other than Shawn? Leads me to believe so. Rupert has wanted to get rid of Shawn since Day 2, so why did they did Burton over Shawn? Shawn is all over the previews as the top boot choice, either because he is the obvious boot choice and MB is hiding it in plain sight, or the Big Lie may come about getting Shawn off the chopping block again. Darrah: Any way you look at it, Darrah seems to be the most vulnerable on Morgan.With all these people coming back from the dead, Darrah could possibly be one of them, but if Morgan goes to Tribal Council, which I doubt, Darrah would be gone. So, for this week, I'm going with Rupert as my prime boot candidate, with Christa and Shawn distant 2nds.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Goooey_Alley 10-20-03 1    omh big lie!!! cqvenus 10-20-03 2        RE: omh big lie!!! Brownroach 10-21-03 6  RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Jims02 10-21-03 3    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... jkokoj 10-21-03 4    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Nash 10-22-03 32  RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Breezy 10-21-03 5  RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... okaloosajohn 10-21-03 7    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... oddout 10-21-03 13  Are we overanalyzing? Bebo 10-21-03 8    Yes jkokoj 10-21-03 9        RE: Yes KObrien_fan 10-21-03 11    RE: Are we overanalyzing? Brownroach 10-21-03 12    RE: Are we overanalyzing? mtopaz 10-21-03 28  RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Nash 10-21-03 10    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... VerucaSalt 10-21-03 14        RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Bebo 10-21-03 15            Rupert, Jon, Shawn Jims02 10-21-03 17            RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Blow by Blow 10-21-03 18                RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... wendyp 10-21-03 20                    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Blow by Blow 10-21-03 29            RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Brownroach 10-21-03 19                RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Bebo 10-21-03 21                    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Brownroach 10-21-03 24        RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Krautboy 10-21-03 25            RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... aethelstan 10-21-03 26                RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... Blow by Blow 10-21-03 30  RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... geekboy 10-21-03 16    My thoughts volsfan 10-21-03 22  RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... dendanash 10-21-03 23    RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... 1unatic 10-21-03 27        RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Da... VerucaSalt 10-22-03 31  The average viewer Loree 10-22-03 33    RE: The average viewer pdragonfly 10-22-03 34  And then there's Trish IslandFever 10-22-03 35    RE: And then there's Trish LeftPinky 10-22-03 36        RE: And then there's Trish Nash 10-22-03 37

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Goooey_Alley 425 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-20-03, 09:49 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" I have been watching Survivor since it had its first in Pulau Tiga. I had noticed that if there would be a tremendous fight between two tribe members, the others end up voting anyone of them... if my long-term memory serves me right. Remember the Kimmi-Alicia feud in Australian Outback? Or Ted-Ghandia feud in Thailand? I think it's either Shawn or Jon. Or if this feud is just staged (like in wrestling) by Shawn and Jon, then, there will be someone else to take the fall for buying the fake argument. The scheming can happen before the IC and can't be an indication that Drake will lose. Like what happened in Burton's boot, Burt started scheming before the challenge to throw the IC and boot Christa. And Ruppie started telling the others of planned boot. About the IC, I don't have any exact idea of who will win. Showing Ryan O. smiling can be a reverse psychology. Even in confessionals after Morgan tribe lost in previous challenges, Ryan O. always cares to show his smile. And showing Rupert with his bleeding shoulders and not happy is not a clear assumption that they lost the challenge. Just my insights... I don't know if it makes sense or clear enough...   Top

cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-20-03, 10:16 PM (EST) 2. "omh big lie!!!" you've just inspired me with I think it's either Shawn or Jon. Or if this feud is just staged (like in wrestling) by Shawn and Jon, then, there will be someone else to take the fall for buying the fake argument. WHAT IF Jon convinces Shawn that they seem to be too close and they should stage an argument so nobody will think they're in kahoots. Meanwhile, Jon tells Shawn they're still buds and they have F2 pact, they just need ppl to not suspect it. Then, they have the argument, and everyone decides JON is the jerkoff, and *he* should go. But that isn't Jon's plan. That isn't what he wanted. So instead, he tells his side of it, which is completely skewed to make Shawn look like the ass, and they vote out Shawn instead. Now, at TC when Jiffy probes them w/ the q&a, they still put on the front that they got into a real fight, b/c as far as Shawn knows, they are still trying to trick the whole tribe about their argument. So Jiffy believes them. He then sees Shawn voted out, so he decides it must have been really bad, and therefore the tribe has spoken. Then... well, you can figure the rest out. Regret comes from the return of Shawn in the ghostie tribe. The end. - it's 4:20 in here. sorry if I make no sense.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 10:51 AM (EST) 6. "RE: omh big lie!!!" I also strongly suspect the Jon/Shawn argument is staged. Shawn's vote last week, from the Insider thread: SHAWN (voting for Michelle): Michelle, I'm voting for you because I made an alliance prior to the alliance you thought we were in and this is just how the game has turned out. I'm really sorry, you're a great girl, you've got amazing qualities and don't take this personally. He must mean his alliance with Jon.   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 09:37 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Rupert: If the alliance of Christa/Trish/Sandra target Jon or Shawn, they may fear the other to jump ship after the merge. If they dump Rupert, the duo of Shawn/Jon would more likely stay with the Drakes. I'm not so sure about that. If they dumped Jon, I could see how Shawn would go to the other side. If they booted Shawn, I'm not sure Jon would be as willing to jump ship, especially because he has a F4 alliance. I have this really funny feeling that something either REALLY BIG is about to happen. Like the moment before the storm. Either that, or something REALLY SMALL will happen, a Shawn boot. I have this weird feeling that the Big Lie will happen this episode, and because of the Big Twist, the Big Regret will happen. But I digress. I think a Rupert boot would be quite interesting. The "betrayal" of Rupert, set up by Shawn and Jon. A loss of Rupert may lead to regret. More farfetched than a Shawn boot, however, unlike Christa last week, this week we have some sort of indication of a Rupert boot in the previews. Christa I am starting to think Snewser moved her to the down-thumb category when he found out a BLONDE was on the ghost tribe. I agree. I think that Snewser's upgrading last week was the main reason why Christa came into the spotlight. They have a majority within the tribe, so the only feasible answer would be Rupert joining Shawn and Jon and forcing a tie. Possibly the two of them aren't sure which one of them is targeted? Could Shawn go to Rupert and tell him the girls want to vote him out and he joins with Shawn and Jon and forces a tie? I guess this could happen. It would mean that the "Betrayal" preview, as well as Jon's fight be misdirection. Instead of Rupert being in danger, maybe it negatively affects the girls? This theory would also work because of the theorized downfall of Drake. How does Morgan get such an advantage? If Drake splits right before the merge. However, I see Drake screwed anyway, especially if some bitter Drakes come back from the dead. The problem with a Christa boot is that Christa's face time dropped so dramatically last episode. Also, Jon has three options. He can either try to stick with his main alliance, and sacrifice his buddy Shawn. Or, he can leave his alliance and convince Rupert and Shawn to vote out Christa. Or, he can try to have it both ways and vote out Rupert. Remember what happened when Burton approached Rupert about getting rid of Christa. Rupert went to Christa with this information. Jon would have to be really gutsy to pull off a Christa boot. Jon He seems to be pulling strings and it doesn't seem that his story is over yet. I have that feeling too. He seems to have a lot of the power this week. And that's really weird too. You'd think that, by now, the girls would've gotten tired of him and ditch him completely, but through the continuous antics the girls keep him around as a shield. As long as the girls keep him, he's safe. I'm not so sure that the Big Lie would actually lead to Jon's demise in the same episode. If Jon tells the lie, and it is truly "brilliant," it would cause SOMEONE else to be booted. Shawn There's one quote of Jiffy's about Shawn that I still remember. Something like: "There's one really cocky guy from NYC (Shawn), but the kind of cocky that you like" Shawn is definitely the obvious boot this week. CBS may be trying to play the "betrayal" of Rupert as a misdirection. Something inside of me is telling me to forget all the other stuff, and just go along with the Shawn boot. But, it's always fun to romantice about crazy, improbable boots. Maybe I should ignore that fancy... Shawn: 40% Rupert: 30% Jon: 20% Christa: 10% This is getting really confusing   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-03, 10:20 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" I am with you Jim. I believe the boot will be Shawn. The rest of his main alliance is gone. Jon will not sacrifice himself to save Shawn. I believe the Rupert previews are misdirection.   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-22-03, 11:07 AM (EST) 32. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" In checking TDT this morning. Jon has been moved to "probably safe" and Christa and Rupert are the only 2 listed as trouble. TDT seems to be professing a Morgan immunity win.   Top

Breezy 18380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 10:28 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" I'm beginning to be afraid of it being a Rupert boot. In the commercials last night. Trish does a voice over with Rupert in the picture, she says "Rupert has a lot of power right now". I think she's going to convince the others of this and they are going to boot Rupert.   Top

okaloosajohn 1259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-21-03, 10:52 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Well, as far as the meal being in some restaurant someplace, I think you can safely rule that out. Unless the restaurant has sand floors and keeps their steaks in a wok on ice, it sure looks like they are on the beach to me. Okaloosajohn   Top

oddout 34 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-21-03, 12:32 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" This is getting kinda confusing. I am starting to think that maybe the betrayl is against Trish. Maybe Shawn tells Rubert that Trish is going to vote against him. Rupert joins up with Shawn and Jon. Shawn and Jon throw a fight to throw the girls off. Then that would probably mean a tie at TC. Or, maybe being the manipulator that Jon is he convinces Christa to vote with them. If there is a tie it will come down to Trish/Rubert and Trish is voted out. Or, if Christa joins the alliance Trish is still voted out. What does anyone think? I think that sooner or later (if Trish is in fact calling the shots) that the remaining members of the tribe are not going to want to listen to her anymore. Any thoughts? oddout   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 11:24 AM (EST) 8. "Are we overanalyzing?" Last week, a number of us did that, by analyzing the spoilers instead of the game. Michelle was the outsider, Michelle was the boot. Shawn - He's the outsider now. As Rupert told us last week, he was the original choice for the first boot. He tried to play his way back in with his obnoxious comments about Burton, but as we were shown last week, he didn't fool anyone. They don't like him, they don't respect him, they don't trust him. All signs point to a Shawn boot. Then if we look at the previews, he's shown quite prominently, in a confrontational way with weak but manipulative Jon, and trying to bargain with Rupert. Rupert - If he were the boot, why would MB beat us over the head with the preview comment about the possible betrayal? Normally, when we're given comments like that, it's to build drama through misdirection. Will he be able to survive the betrayal? If past preview wording is any indication, then yes. Christa - Why would Christa go? Since she's put into the IC instead of Jon, she's obviously the strongest female on the team. The two people who voted for her are gone, and the only reason we're still considering her is because of speculation on the third returning person. Since Michelle, who's already gone, fits the vague description, there's no reason to suspect her at this point. Shawn tries to save his neck, but it's too little, too late as he goes. As for Morgan...I disagree that Darrah is the most vulnerable. Even though she's the smallest member of the tribe, she has done quite well in challenges for them. And I think that Tijuana has allied with her and Osten, because Tijuana knows she is at best third (and probably fourth) if she sticks with Andrew and Ryan. Osten knows that if he sticks with the guys, he's third out, because Ryan and Andrew are tight. By sticking with the girls, he has greater control over his destiny if faced with a strength challenge, where Ryan could take him out. Ryan is the linchpin. If he's gone, then he would have to ally with someone else, probably Tijuana or Osten, in a chance to survive. Given the interactions that we've seen between Andrew and Tijuana, she probably feels more comfortable that Andrew would want to ally with her. We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-03, 11:59 AM (EST) 9. "Yes" I over analyzed last week and will not make the same mistake. Currently the spoilers are pointing to Shawn and Rupert. Currently the show is all about Drake and how they fall apart. It is right there in our faces, again. Now many may anticipate a surprise boot, but that really has not been the case with the editing.   Top

KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 12:15 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Yes" I agree, Shawn is clearly the odd man out, plus there is no way in heck (ty Neleh for this new word in my vocab, lol) that Rupert would strike a deal with Shawn. Rupe of all people has been sick of Shawn from the beginning. FWIW: RC- Morgan IC- Morgan Boot- Shawn Bye bye my cocky...   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 12:24 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Are we overanalyzing?" Exactly, Bebo. Somebody has to be next on Drake's chopping block. Shawn is in the same position Michelle was in last week, and it appears he is going to go to Rupert for help just like Michelle did last week. As for the Jon/Shawn alliance, I see it as a version of the Rob/Matt alliance, where Jon has a connection to both sides but Shawn is out of the loop until Jon tells him what's going on. If Jon senses that the Sandra/Trish/Christa/Rupert group are ready to turn on one of their own this week -- say, Rupert -- Jon can pull Shawn's vote in to accomplish that if needed. That's the only thing his alliance with Shawn is useful for at the moment. But why should Jon instigate a shake-up just to save Shawn's butt? If Sa/T/C/R stay on track and zero in on Shawn, there's no reason for Jon not to go along with it. After Shawn is gone, Sa/T/C/R/J will have to start self-cannibalizing, and with the merge looming in their minds Rupert will look like the prime target.   Top

mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-21-03, 06:02 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Are we overanalyzing?" I got caught up in overanalyzing last week too. I agree that if Drake goes to TC this week, Shawn is the most obvious boot. The only person he has an alliance with is Jon. The players should be thinking ahead at this point to merge time, so in addition to booting Shawn because he is an outsider, they should want to boot him because he will be a strong contender for individual immunity. While players may recognize that Rupert is also likely to win individual immunity, he has shown himself to be a strong ally. If I was in an alliance with Rupert, Trish, Christa and Sandra - I think I would want to keep my alliance intact and strong in face of the impending merge. Nope - get rid of the one you know you can't trust, and go into merge with a strong alliance. Jon may be annoying in the extreme, but he's obviously playing strategically. It would serve him better to boot Shawn than try to engineer Rupert's demise. A PhoenixMons creation   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-21-03, 12:14 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Here's my take on your analysis: MOST VUNERABLE Shawn - I think Shawn is being used by the tribe as long as it is convenient. The promos show betrayal, ie. a deal made between Shawn and Rupert. Generally the promos are misdirection more than anything. Problem is that he was part of the Michelle, Burton alliance and turned on Burton. It could very well be that he is being set up for the fal. VUNERABLE Rupert - The betrayal if it's not misdirection could be to target Rupert. However, my gut is that it is not yet Rupert's time to go. Especially because of Balboa and that rumoured to be the name given the New Merged Tribe. He is a threat and that makes him vunerable. Jon - Again there is promo showing Jon and Shawn arguing and inference that one of them may be the next to go. Jon thinks he's all that and really is not. He is not a threat and that may account for his longevity to date. He is not a nice personality however and that could account for his vunerability. Christa - She certainly was a target by Burton. Has she annoyed anyone enough to cause her the boot. Darrah - Assuming a Drake win it is obvious that the Darrah would be the next boot. However, there is rumouring that Ryan O. is the victim of a bizarre twist. Could it be that Darrah is kidnapped by Drake and she has one council immunity like Rupert? Ryan O. - Again the speculation/spoilers seem to suggest that Ryan O. is the victim of a bizarre twist. Could that be a Darrah kidnap. Or is the twist a re-entry by previously booted tribe members.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-21-03, 12:52 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" LAST EDITED ON 10-22-03 AT 07:48 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 10-21-03 AT 02:21 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 10-21-03 AT 12:54 PM (EST) while the jury is still out on this obviously but why wouldn't Shawn and Jon really be fighting? These two are no doubt a bit nervous where they may stand; this may cause quite a bit of tension between them as they perhaps observe the other doing some bootlicking and the ever favorite "I work harder than you do" Despite Jon's bravado, he is as worried as the next person. And I agree completely that Shawn is in the exact same position as Michelle. Shawn has no choice but to continue his quest to show his goals in staying. He badmouths Burton to show the others he had wanted him gone, then he approaches Rupert immediately about last week's boot, of course he is going to continue this path. Again, Rupert with the danger signals. CAN he overcome. IS his tribe. In a general viewing audience they are manipulated by the ever present danger signals. Jon is noted as the next boot for Drake in the CBS poll; we KNOW better but they look at the entire situation and person. So MB counteracts with talk of trouble for someone else and who else BUT Rupert should it be; he is the most popular man out there. There is no logical reason for Rupert to go. Trish made comments last week as well. Do I think that at least one of them is not thinking that Rupert should go soon, absolutely. But not now, there are other people out there who know this as well and Rupert himself commented on this control of both tribes and how it can move to alienation. Why would they not get rid of the baggage that they know is not sticking to the same course and like Michelle said jump ship. Shawn is clearly that person. It was also shown that despite his "strength" they still lost an RC so that argument is not validated. We are probably going to see the vulnerability of Shawn and/or Jon with a nice dose of Rupert to counteract much like last week. I didn't buy it then and no reason to buy it now. And as far as Christa? Like last week despite the whole Christa thing, I said it time and time I couldn't make it work therefore I wasn't going there. My feelings as of now, still stand with that as well however, I am not above throwing her in the proverbial pot to mix around also. And I am still balancing on Jon as well.   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 01:12 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" while the jury is still out on this obviously but why wouldn't Shawn and Jon really be fighting? OK, I know I'm the Queen of Crazy Scenarios, but you've put another one in my head. Try this one on for size... Jon and Shawn fight after the blown IC. Jon wants to target Rupert. Shawn, however, thinks this is a crazy idea, voting out their strongest player after losing a strength challenge. Shawn's only way to stay is to convince the rest of the team that they need his strength. He can't do that and target Rupert at the same time. Then we get to Shawn's agreement with Rupert, and the betrayal...of Jon. Rupert would appreciate the argument of keeping strength, and heck, they picked a girl to do a strength challenge instead of Jon, so that makes Jon a good target. And Shawn knows how Rupert felt about the whole thrown challenge idea, and he could put the blame on that on Jon. Two eps ago, we're shown a private conversation between Burton and Rupert about the thrown challenge, and Burton was ousted. Last ep, we're shown Michelle pleading her case to Rupert. This time, we're shown Shawn and Rupert. Will this one be successful? We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.   Top

Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 01:58 PM (EST) 17. "Rupert, Jon, Shawn" That's what this thread really should be called, as most of the discussion is about these three. I agree that we may be overanalyzing, but I feel that's WAY better than underanalyzing. Underanalyzing + Assumptions = Michelle. We have two teasers, which may connect. The main struggle is to figure out which ones are misdirection, and which aren't. This Big Lie has really messed up spoiling this year. I would probably very quickly dismiss the "betrayal" preview as misdirection, if it weren't for our knowledge of the Big Lie. That's Jimsy to you   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-03, 02:19 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-03 AT 02:23 PM (EST) I posted about this in another thread, so I'll keep it brief (I lied). If Drake were smart they'd boot Christa so that in the first post-merge IC only one of their tribemates will already have votes against them (Shawn-2) and their odds of winning a tie-breaker are improved. However, I think all of the muddy alliances that have formed will keep the tribe from having this cohesive vision and I agree with the others who've said that Shawn gets the boot this week. I guess they'll leave it up to Christa to save her own neck post-merge. What I'd really like to see is Rupert, Andrew and Ryan O forming an immediate post-merge alliance. Rupert can work behind the scenes for a couple of TCs and then show his true colors by voting out Osten, Darrah, or Tijuana. Here's my dream order for the next couple of weeks: Shawn Christa Jon Osten (here's where Rupert shows his true allegiance, only RyanO or Andrew needs to vote for Osten and Tij and Dar won't realize they're screwed) Sandra Tijuana And then Rupert gets knifed by Andrew and RyanO Maybe Tij, Osten, and Darrah get suspicious and oust Andres, Ryan or Rupert with help from Drakes, but I doubt it. -P   Top

wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-21-03, 02:40 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" You have good analysis,b ut you are assuming that there will be a merge next week. Remember that the merge has been faked and pushed out in previous shows. Plus even if Rupert agrees to help Ryan O and Andrew to boot TJ/O, I do not think he would make himself so vulnerable by voting out 3 of his tribe in a row. I think Andrew wants to join Drake and boot the rest of his team as they have not done a lot.   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-03, 08:01 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" >You have good analysis,b ut you are assuming that there will be a merge next week. Remember that the merge has been faked and pushed out in previous shows. Yeah, that's probably a bad assumption on my part. If the merge doesn't happen with ten players then my theory (and dream) is shot all to hell. >Plus even if Rupert agrees to help Ryan O and Andrew to boot TJ/O, I do not think he would make himself so vulnerable by voting out 3 of his tribe in a row. I said he'd orchestrate the booting of two of his tribemates in a row, post merge, without actually voting for either of them (he just tells Morgan who to vote for). His third vote post-merge would be against Osten. >I think Andrew wants to join Drake and boot the rest of his team as they have not done a lot. I agree, but there's no way they'll take him. I believe they think he's a major dope for not taking all the rice when he raided their camp (and he is). -P   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 02:38 PM (EST) 19. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Then we get to Shawn's agreement with Rupert, and the betrayal...of Jon. I also think Shawn's conversation with Rupert is going to be about getting rid of Jon. Whether the argument between Jon and Shawn is real or staged, either way it will make Shawn look bad because he's already on the outside. I think he'll worry that Jon is making the situation worse for him (Shawn) -- which may be Jon's intention. I really don't think Rupert would go for a "strength alliance" scenario with Shawn either, though -- especially now that there are only two of them. Rupert might muse on the possibility they could get Andrew, Ryan and Osten in on it post merge, but he has to figure that Morgan already has some alliances worked out, so he couldn't depend on that.   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 02:46 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" I really don't think Rupert would go for a "strength alliance" scenario with Shawn either, Oh, I don't think it will be as strong of an agreement as an alliance. I think Shawn's just trying to save himself and could use strength as a reason to be kept instead of Jon. If the merge doesn't happen at 10 - and they've been thrown off enough already not to expect it to be a done deal - then Rupert may be swayed at the prospect of having the stronger Shawn stick around one more time just in case. But I don't think this is more than a one-shot deal. We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 04:13 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Maybe that would fly with Rupert. I really do think Jon is second most likely to get the boot this week, if it isn't Shawn. Still, Michelle said that Rupert isn't controlling things at the Drake camp, so it may not be up to him...   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 10-21-03, 04:49 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" LAST EDITED ON 10-21-03 AT 04:51 PM (EST) The storyline this week focuses on two themes. The conflict between Jon and Shawn, in which Shawn appears to be most vulnerable, and the question of whether or not a betrayal causes Rupert’s tribe to turn on him… More conflict between Jon and Shawn arises at Drake, causing some to consider one of them as the next to go. First it's Scrawn vs. Brawn... Sandra: (confessional) Jon has had it up to here with him. ... in a heated confrontation. Jon: You do more not to do work than doing work! Shawn: Shut up! Shut up!! Jeff Probst: And at Drake, tempers fly. Jon: No, what's ... ridiculous is not doing anything! It's not ... working! Shawn: Jon, just shut up, allright? Sandra: (confessional) Maybe Shawn should get a clue. Or he's going home. It appears that Shawn is being considered for the boot, at least according to Sandra. This could be misdirection, but is more likely just setting up the TC “showdown” between Shawn and Jon or Rupert. And, is it the ultimate act of betrayal? Trish: (off-camera) Rupert has a hell of a lot of power right now. Rupert: (off-camera) I can't believe this. Sandra: Oh man, this is crazy. Thursday on CBS, it's a night of Survivor showdowns. The ultimate physical challenge leads to a back-breaking stand-off. And can Rupert overcome a brazen act of betrayal? Thursday on CBS: Survivor Pearl Islands just keeps getting better. On a night of show-offs and showdowns, a back-breaking challenge leads to a stand-off. And is Rupert's own tribe turning on him? The Promos set up Rupert as the other possible target for this week’s TC. Trish who has been edited questioning Rupert’s loyalty comments on his power. From the Insider we see that she is perhaps the one really pulling the strings at Drake. She has to decide if Rupert or Shawn would be more likely to jump ship after the merge. The betrayal of Rupert seems to be more editing fabrication than anything. Shawn’sd vulnerability seems real based on the Insider Clips and Michelle’s Web Chat… From Michelle’s CBS Web chat: Q: “You said this morning on the Early Show that you were hoping that the Drake tribe would see they could make it without Rupert. Do you think that happened?” Michelle: “No! I think that everybody was so in love with Rupert that they forgot the reality of the situation, which was that Rupert had the advantage because he'd talked to both tribes. For all we knew, he could be having an alliance with people from Morgan.” Rupert appears to be secure in his tribe. We saw Trish suggest saving the spam until Rupert returned from his Morgan visit, and warm hugs when he returned. Rupert also did a good job at TC, explaining how the knowledge he gained about the Morgan, could benefit the Drake tribe. Q: What do you think about Shawn after he betrayed you and Burton? Michelle: Shawn was really annoying about the whole situation. When Burton was voted off, he made it seem as though he wanted Burton off, when in fact, he was being threatened. During EP5, after the tribe returned from voting off Burton, we saw Shawn try to distance himself from his alliance with Burton and Michelle. Trish was shown in a confessional asking, “Does Shawn think we are stupid?” Neither Michelle or Trish were convinced by Shawn’s performance. Shawn is an outsider on the Drake tribe and he knows it. Survivor Insider: Michelle the day after… “ One of the things I could have done to save myself the night I was voted out is talk to Trish about it --kind of plead my case to her of why I should stay and Shawn should go, but I didn't do that.” “I mean I think the people who are under her working for her are people like Jon and Christa and Rupert and Sandra.” Michelle obviously thought the boot decision was between her and Shawn. Shawn is also not mentioned as one of those “working for her”. Shawn is not part of the core alliance. Shawn has had an alliance with Jon, that Jon mentioned in his “puppetmaster speech”. It is probably the alliance mentioned during his vote… Shawn’s TC vote: “Michelle, I'm voting for you because I made an alliance prior to the alliance you thought we were in and this is just how the game has turned out. I'm really sorry, you're a great girl, you've got amazing qualities and don't take this personally.” But after Shawn’s conflict with Jon, he will find himself vulnerable and without an alliance. At this point we will probably see him approach Rupert and try to strike a deal to betray Jon in order to save himself. The over-hyped Act of Betrayal? Meanwhile, Drake appears to win the RC and would probably send Jon as the looter sent to visit the Morgan Tribe... “While looting the losing tribe's camp after a Reward Challenge, a visiting castaway makes a stunning confession.” As Veruca pointed out, we get additional insight into the rice deal that Rupert made with Andrew: Let’s Make a Deal… Andrew confessional:” Before the reward challenge Rupert and I had a handshake deal where I would take a sack of their rice, uh, and he agreed if they win the next reward challenge, they wouldn’t take our pot.” It’s possible that before leaving Rupert tells Jon about his deal and instructs Jon not to take the water pot. Jon may see this as an opportunity to play his role as “Johnny Fairplay”, and make a stunning confession that is untrue…”Rupert lied to you, he told me to take the pot” Jon could lie and in a brazen act, betray Rupert by making him out to be a liar in the eyes of the Morgan Tribe, so that once merged, Rupert would no longer be trusted and the first one voted out. From SNN’s Scorecard: “Chirp:…a little birdie tells us that his tribe members were not the least bit afraid of voting Rupie out…” Rupert being voted out immediately after the merge would satisfy the SNN “chirp” about the tribe not hesitating to vote Rupert out…he’d be the first boot! The stunning confession made to the other tribe could also be the brazen act of betrayal, and while Rupert will overcome it at this weeks’ TC it may haunt him after the merge and he may not even be aware of it yet… After all the hype, it could be as simple as Jon and Shawn facing off at TC. Shawn appears to be next in line in Trish’s pecking order, and most likely going to visit his friends Michelle and Burton…Trish may recognize Rupert’s power in the game, but as we’ve seen, she has more control that Rupert and can wait until after the merge to deal with him. He is loyal to Drake and to his alliance with her and I think she knows it. Shawn has already tried once and failed. Balboa and Shawn are Rupert's snakes. He may now attempt another betrayal…not someone Trish can trust going into the merge. Shawn is the logical next in line, with no real good reason to deviate from the plan. Any editing that shows Rupert in danger is most likely misdirection setting up Rupert to come through in the end and continue as “Everyone’s Hero”… Krautboy   Top

aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-21-03, 05:02 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Excellent analysis, KB, especially about the lie. However, I can't help but think that Andrew would immediately ask Rupert about it at the merge and Rupert would be so much more believable than Jon. So then they'd gang up on Jon to vote him out. I have to agree with you about Shawn. I think this week will not have any twists, just like last week, and Shawn will be gone. But, the seeds of discord will be sown in Drake and that will lead to their being pagonged.   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-21-03, 08:13 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Agreed, excellent analysis. Here are my $.02: Ultimate act of betrayal: Whatever. I'm sure this is just Jon handing Shawn to the wolves. Stunning confession: Perhaps Jon mentions to the Morgans that Andrew didn't take all the rice on his raiding visit. That might not sit well with them, especially if Andrew gave the impression he took all Drake had. (Did we see the conversation between Rupert and Andrew at Morgan regarding future raids? Did the other Morgans see/hear it?) -P   Top

geekboy 1788 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 10-21-03, 01:52 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" i can't see Rupert getting booted, but this is "Survivor" and it has its history of STUPID TRIBES. I can see your analysis, but why on Earth a tribe would ditch Rupert pre-merge is beyond my comprehension. Again...this is Survivor...i guess you go stupid when you are on an island in this game... geekboy   Top

volsfan 19846 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-21-03, 02:54 PM (EST) 22. "My thoughts" Geekboy...I agree with you...people do stewpid things on islands when playing for 1 million dollars! My take is that Shawn is the obvious next to go...but the thing about the BIG LIE is keeping me on my toes as well! Like Jims says..tough to spoil when we know about the BIG LIE! I think there is a lot of misdirection going on this week. MB is not wanting it to be the pagonging that you expect before the merge or the twist!   Top

dendanash 47 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-21-03, 03:42 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" This will not be the first EP we will see Jon and Shawn fighting about working/not working. Back in EP 4 they were arguing about the exact same thing. Jon doing all the work and Shawn doing nothing. Jon also mentioned his two alliances which were (Trish, Rupert, Christa and Sandra) (Shawn, Burton, Michelle). Now that he has a 4 to 1 alliance, I think he will be shifting his to the T/R/C/S alliance and bye bye Shawn. That is if Drake goes to TC. If it is Morgan.... Andrew, Tijuana, Osten, and Darrah are pretty tight and I feel that Ryan O is the outsider and he will go. They know the merge is coming soon and they will need to keep the strongest players. I believe they will keep the women around to continue to do some of the work such as the cooking and the water.   Top

1unatic 47 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 10-21-03, 06:01 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" If the Jon/Shawn argument is staged, than it's not a good idea. When 2 people have a big argument, one of them a threat once the merge happens, then people are going to take sides. Either Jon or Shawn will be the target this week. The Rupert Hype is misderection. The only way i can see Rupert and Shawn making a deal is to get rid of Jon, which, if Drake loses immunity, will probably and hopefully happen. If there is a merge, i can see Rupert being the first post- merge boot. If Morgan loses immunity, i think Ryan O. will go. I believe the Ryan O. celebration is also misderection, as it's too obvious. Remember that MB chooses what goes on the previews, and he's not dumb enough to hand us the challenge winner so easily.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-22-03, 07:32 AM (EST) 31. "RE: Rupert, Christa, Jon, Shawn, Darrah" Was not worth meriting its own post but here is more from Burton. http://survivornews.net/news.php?id=267 On who Burton blames for being voted out: Burton blames Rupert for backstabbing him more than anyone else. They had a long conversation where Burton wanted to form an alliance with Rupert because they were the two strongest so Burton thought they had a better chance if they were together. But Rupert turned around and repeated their conversation to Sandra and Christa. On Jon: Burton thinks that Jon is pretty obnoxious but found him amusing since he would get into fights with other players and it broke the monotony to watch him. On Christa: They would get along at times but other times she would try to start fights or be rude to people. He's not her biggest fan. On Shawn: Burton thinks Shawn was delusional and jealous. He said that Shawn couldn't put a strategy together and the tribe knew it and that's why they kept him around. Even Rupert said that they would keep Shawn around because he would just do what everyone told him to do. On who he thought was the biggest competition: Overall he thinks that Rupert was the only other person that has the all around skills be it strategy or capacity to win challenges. No one else could even swim well. The people on the Morgan Tribe combined couldn't out a strategy for a challenge together if they had to. He thinks he and Rupert had what it took.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-22-03, 11:43 AM (EST) 33. "The average viewer" Last week I asked friends who don't visit spoiler boards who was going. They all thought Michelle if Drake went to TC. I was swayed by the Christa thoughts. But the average viewer assumed Michelle was in trouble. Those same people think Shawn is going this week if Drake goes to TC again. So why do I want to think too hard and make it difficult? Shawn is the obvious one in trouble on that tribe. Why do I always want to avoid the obvious?   Top

pdragonfly 318 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 10-22-03, 11:51 AM (EST) 34. "RE: The average viewer" lol I watched those vidcaps and Jon was throwning a hissy fit. He did this whole finger twirl thing just like a mother yelling at her kid "you do more not to do work than doing work" Huh? I think Jon is trying to distance him self from Shawn. for me it looks like Shawn is on the chopping block. He's trying to go to people so he doesn't get voted off. Just like Micehlle went to Rupert, so does he. Lot of good its going to do him though. Goodbye Shawn.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 10-22-03, 09:10 PM (EST) 35. "And then there's Trish" The pendulum seems to be swinging toward Trish. I don't know if I'm ready to agree yet or not.   Top

LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-22-03, 09:32 PM (EST) 36. "RE: And then there's Trish" The ultimate betrayal.... Rupert gets wind of Trish siding with Shawn/Jon and decides to sway the whole tribe to say, bye bye Trish! It was obvious from Michelle's chat that Trish thinks (maybe is) she is pulling all of the strings at Drake and that all of the boot discussion goes through her. The handshake between Rupert and Shawn could happen after losing IC when they realize that if the tribes don't merge next episode, they are screwed if one of them gets the boot. So, they decide that one of the weaker members must go, and they choose the one pulling all of the strings....great betrayal!   Top

Nash 437 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-22-03, 09:45 PM (EST) 37. "RE: And then there's Trish" I agree with the analysis too. I think the "Betrayal" would be excellent if Trish were the one to go. Especially if Trish thinks that everyone is voting against Rupert.   Top

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