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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
=========================================== Sorry for the late posting but I've been dealing with some server problems that hopefully should be now resolved.
It's no secret that this is a difficult week -- Rupert, Jon, Christa, Michelle, Rhino -- all of them loom as prime potential bootees for various reasons and Rupert's tribal status, the rumors of a ghost tribe, the possibility of additional castaway "thefts," the still unknown "Big Lie," and the fact that I've spent the entire week concentrating on the Boston Red Sox further complicate the situation.
Reward Challenge
I don't think the "Everyone's Hero" title has to mean Rupert either A) leads Morgan to RC victory, or B) leads Drake to IC challenge victory upon his return. I think it simply refers to his cumulative actions to date and likely just refers to the praise he receives from Morgan when he comes into camp and shows them how Survivor tribal living is done (we've already seen Tijuana and Rhino gushing over him in the previews.)
The consensus seems to be that DRAKE actually wins the reward challenge, so given my minimal spoiler activity of the past week, I'm not going to disagree.
RC WINNER: DRAKE
Immunity Challenge
Immunity is the typical gross food challenge, and at this point, gross as it is, this challenge is usually just a "mind over matter," who-wants-it-more type of thing -- something you'd think would place Morgan at an advantage. But then again, Morgan tribe members like Osten haven't exacrtly shown a lot of "inner strength" or an ability to rise to the challenge. Regardless, the CBS promos seem to point to some gagging, etc. on the Morgan side, which is likely misdirection, so MORGAN still seems the favorite to win the IC.
RC WINNER: MORGAN
Bootee
Here's where it gets complicated... if we assume Morgan wins immunity, then Drake is going to TC. But it's unclear if Morgan will get to steal another Drake for a couple of days, and if so, if they can take Rupert again or must pick someone else. Either way, even if they are with the tribe at TC, I'm having a difficult time envisioning a scenario where Drake boots a strong player in back-to-back TC's, so I consider Shawn and Rupert to be safe. Trish and Sandra also seem secure, leaving Jon, Christa, and Michelle. As much as we all hate the idea, Jon seems comfortably in an alliance (or two) and seems the least likely of the three to be booted.
That leaves Michelle and Christa and here's where things get confusing. Again, having been tied up with following the Boston Red Sox all of the past week, my simple Occum's Razor logic would say that Michelle, the clear outsider who was in an alliance with Burton and the only Drake member NOT to vote for him at last week's TC wouldbe the obvious target of the next Tribal Council (with all the "does Drake still trust Rupert" CBS promos playing the role of simple misdirection), however from what I've seen online, the majority of the spoiler folks who have actually spent some time working on this week's analysis seem to think CHRISTA is the likely bootee, so I'll defer to their judgement is go with CHRISTA. But I'm still going follow the Occum's Razor idea and select MICHELLE as our alternate pick.
BOOTEE: CHRISTA
ALTERNATE BOOTEE: MICHELLE
-SB
PS Go SOX! (hey, it's worked for two weeks now, I sure as hell aren't going to stop including it in my prediction postings tonight)
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