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"Spoiling the Spoilers"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-14-03, 00:36 AM (EST)
 
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"Spoiling the Spoilers" |
This season, in edition to vidcap analysis, weight loss reports, and all the other tools of the spoiling community, we have had to try to spoil the spoilers. Snewser and TDT both have a proven record of prequalifying spoiler reliability and protecting source confidentiality. The nature of their sites has allowed them to build a network of contacts that often receives “tips” from reliable sources. As a result, their “Scorecard” and “Survivometer” have become valuable spoiling tools and another way to cross-check our theories and speculation each week. Both do an excellent job sharing what they can, when they can, in a way that is fair to the spoiling community, and are to be commended for the way they handle the “tips” they receive. Analyzing the “tips” and rumors, and comparing those of one site against the other, has added another layer of spoiling to the puzzle… another riddle to be solved. So, what clues does this give us about EP5? SNN has had Jon and Rupert listed in the “Potential Suckitude” category of the “Scorecard” since before EP1. However, after EP3 SNN apparently received information resulting in the downgrade of both Burton and Christa. The Family Visit spoiler was questioned because it conflicted with, what must have been, a tip that Burton and Christa get booted pre-merge. Snewser “checked” his boot prediction table “correct” for both EP4 and EP5…Burton was predicted correctly. Snewser has indirectly told us that he has reliable knowledge of the EP5 boot and is confident enough to pre-check his voting box. The curious thing was that two boxes were pre-checked at the same time, two players were downgraded at the same time and both players were downgraded for the same reason. I would conclude that the source of this information had knowledge about both players. The first was booted and correctly predicted…Burton. The second has yet to be booted, but appears to already be predicted (and pre-checked correct) as the EP5 boot…Christa. Comparing this theory against the TDT Survivometer, we might speculate that TDT may have received the same information, perhaps even from the same source. After EP3 Burton was downgraded to “Trouble?” but still listed as making the Jury? Just before 2:00 pm Thursday he changed his listing for Burton to “Toast” What did TDT know? This week Christa is also downgraded to “Trouble” but also listed as making the jury. TDT had received tips about Rupert before EP3 and Jon before EP4. It appears he may also have received information about Burton and Christa. This week TDT is presenting five possible boots without tipping his hand. His spoiling this week has focused on the details and mechanics of the challenges. I would speculate that he already knows the EP5 boot, just like Snewser does and will change “trouble” to “toast” at about 2:00 pm Thursday. Both SNN and TDT suggest that Lillian and Burton will be members of the “Ghost Tribe”. The conflicting information that both sites apparently received about Christa being in the game at the time of the Family Visit, but also a pre-merge boot, was evidently explained by the recent reports that three members of the “Ghost Tribe” return to the game. Christa is most likely the third person, with Lillian and Burton. SNN also has Rupert listed as “Potential Suckitude” and the source of the information as a “Chirp”…typically a very reliable tip: “Chirp:…a little birdie tells us that his tribe members were not the least bit afraid of voting Rupie out…” The interesting thing is that Rupert has yet to attend TC…this may be viewed as a tip that tells us when Rupert finally goes to TC he’s toast. However, if the Immunity winner is allowed to continue picking a member of the losing tribe, it’s possible Rupert still doesn’t get to TC in EP5 even if the Drake Tribe does. As for Ryno, the uncertainty in his Scorecard listing… “Initial reports about him not doing particularly well. Still trying to firm up, but we're downgrading him from Neutral after E1.” …does not fit with the certainty of the EP5 check-mark posted before EP4. The revised statements about Christa is much more confident… “Downgraded after E3. Not convinced of the veracity of the Family Reward rumors now. Or maybe she's booted off and returns later. This is getting confusing.” Snewser sounds sure of her boot, just not certain if she makes it back into the game for the Family Visit… TDT’s “toast” or Snewser’s check mark mean the same thing…they’ve already spoiled EP5. Now all we have to do is spoil the spoilers. 
Krautboy
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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-03, 00:52 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
sneweser is a he you might be thinking of grife and it looks like she has alot of say at snn.
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-03, 02:11 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
(note to Erikman, the "her" and "she" is a reference to Christa)Krautboy, Great coherency and analysis as always. I would like to confer an additional accolade: I like how your posts are always so well organized and typo-free. That is the constant cherry on your steady and scrumptious spoiler sundaes. Cheers, BI
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frankz 1214 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-03, 09:54 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
Excellent analysis, as always. Thanks Krautboy (from a fellow KB)
The possibility of people coming back makes this a very difficult season to spoil. Your fact gathering and attention to detail has been quite beneficial to all of us.
big idiot, without trying to sound like an anal idiot, the fourth word in KB’s post should be “addition”. Sorry, it’s the German in me. But I do agree with your sentiments completely. Thanks KB and I love your sundaes too (just don’t get any ideas)
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anninvt2002 86 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-03, 09:01 AM (EST)
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4. "Christa Leaving...." |
I guess I don't assume the title "Everyone's Hero" to mean that Rupert is a hero to everyone in the SAME episode. So far, he has been Drake's hero for the last 4 episodes. I believe that Rupert is Morgans hero in episode 5 and the title has nothing to do with him helping drake this episode. After reading Krautboys analysis above, I think the only way Christa goes is Morgan wins IC and takes Rupert again. If Rupert were with Drake at TC, with the known alliances, Christa would not be going, Jon or Michelle would be. Rupert, Trish, Sandra and Christa would vote one of them out. If Rupert wasn't there, TC might end up in a tie...Trish, Sandra, Christa vote one way,,,,,JOn, MIchelle and Shawn another way. If SNN and TDT thinks it is Christa this week, I think Morgan has to win IC.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-14-03, 10:28 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Christa Leaving...." |
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-03 AT 10:29 AM (EST)I think the only way Christa goes is Morgan wins IC and takes Rupert again. If Morgan wins IC, I think they would have to choose someone other than Rupert this time. I think ElroyJetson hit on it here, with the idea that (right before the EP 5 IC) Rupert will be asked if he wants to become a member of the Morgan tribe, now that he's spent three days with them. Rupert will of course opt to stay with Drake, as we see him competing for Drake at the IC. It would explain why JP was unspecific about Rupert returning to Drake and competing with them at the next IC. And it would be MB's feeble attempt (a la S5) to get people to voluntarily switch tribes. And even if Morgan could pick Rupert again, what would be the point? I think they'd want to pick someone else. 
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-03, 12:01 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-03 AT 12:03 PM (EST)Here's the problem: Jon and Rupert have been on Snewser's "Potential Suckitude" list for the entire first half of the show. And Ryan O, like Christa, has been added recently. I think it's WAY too early to start worrying about the returning (if any) tribe members. I think we should just worry about one episode at a time. We also need to remember the ambiguity of Snewser's words. Just because he uses the words "maybe booted" does not mean he knows Christa is gone. Possibility of a Christa boot Mentioned above. I'll leave that to Krautboy. Possibility of a Rupert boot Rupert wins the RC for Morgan, thus becoming "Everyone's Hero." This creates rumoring (and possibly a lie?) that Rupert is being disloyal to Drake. Drake loses the IC. And to Morgan's surprise, they don't get Rupert back. Jeff never said that this switching would happen in EVERY episode. We, as spoilers, want to assume that. All Jeff said was "this challenge has a special reward involved." So Rupert is stuck at Drake, and his tribemates vote him out, due to disloyalty. I have a big problem with this scenario though. I really don't see Sandra/Trish/Christa voting out Rupert, as opposed to Jon even if Rupert does go to TC. Also, if this "Rupert switching" occurs every episode, this boot idea would be sunk. Possibility of a Jon boot Jon tells everyone around the campfire that Shawn voted for Burton too. Why would he reveal this information? To alienate Michelle? Because he is intoxicated? I personally believe that it is the latter. It's *is* Jon we're talking about. If you were Trish, Sandra, or Christa, how would you perceive this comment? They may perceive Jon as a traitor, and wish to vote him out. They could accomplish this in two ways: 1. If there is no Rupert Switch, S/C/T/R keeps the majority. 2. If Rupert does go to Morgan, I could see Trish/Sandra/Christa recruiting Michelle as a Female alliance. Michelle is desparate right now. She might just take the deal. My problem with this, is Ep6 title "Me and My Snake" may allude to Jon. We also are still missing a "Big Lie" indication. Possibility of a Ryan O boot Now for something completely different. Rupert helps Morgan win the RC and becomes Morgan's Hero. Then he goes over to Drake, they win the IC, and is Drake's Hero. So Morgan goes to Tribal Council. So how is Darrah saved? 1. If Andrew respects his Andrew/Ryan alliance, he'd vote with Ryan and Darrah to eliminate Tijuana. This doesn't make any sense. Snewser has her listed as safe, and the face time doesn't agree with this theory. So maybe Andrew votes with Tijuana and Osten. As seen in Ep3, Tijuana may wanna keep Darrah around, so the foursome votes out Ryan. (I don't like Theory 1... Too messy) 2. Darrah is taken by Drake (if there is still an IC Swap). My problem with this is: Why would Drake take Darrah, of all people??? Look at it this way. Darrah knows she's in trouble. She approaches Rupert, telling him that she is next to go. Rupert, upon hearing this, thinks he can have another ally if he can convince Drake to take her. EDIT: Rupert would also be "Darrah's Hero" too, and adds an ironic spin to Ryan O's confessional about taking Rupert was a smart move. This would fit the rumor about an Ep4 Ep5 Ryno boot, but is the messiest scenario, alliance-wise 
A 2003 IceCat original
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-14-03, 12:17 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
If Andrew respects his Andrew/Ryan alliance, he'd vote with Ryan and Darrah to eliminate Tijuana. This doesn't make any sense. According to Lill, Ryan O. told Andrew that he would not be in Andrew's alliance if they voted out Darrah in EP 3 -- Ryan O. was apparently smitten with Darrah. Darrah and Lill were the only targets discussed, so, in Andrew's mind, the F4 alliance is Andrew, Osten, Tijuana and Ryan O. I don't think Ryan O. has an individual alliance with Andrew. Now that Lill is gone, Darrah has to be the F4 alliance's next boot. If that still doesn't sit well with Ryan O. and he tells Andrew he'd rather have Osten or Tijuana out, I don't think he'll get his way a second time around. Andrew would probably rather keep Darrah and replace Ryan O. with her in the F4 alliance.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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10-14-03, 03:13 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
If T feels closer to Darrah than Rhino, she may suggest to Andrew/Osten that they boot Rhino instead of Darrah. As they are closer to the merge Rhino would be more of an individual IC threat than Darrah would. Darrah may be considered more loyal and a follower where Rhino could bond with Rupert after the merge.
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Brad Lascelle 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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10-15-03, 00:59 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
> Snewser and TDT both have a proven record of prequalifying
> spoiler reliability and protecting source confidentiality.
> The nature of their sites has allowed them to build a network
> of contacts that often receives “tips” from reliable sources.
> As a result, their “Scorecard” and “Survivometer” have become
> valuable spoiling tools and another way to cross-check our
> theories and speculation each week. Both do an excellent job
> sharing what they can, when they can, in a way that is fair
> to the spoiling community, and are to be commended for the
> way they handle the “tips” they receive.I'd contend that the 'fairness' aspect of how Snewser and TDT use their intel is up for debate... although I will give props to TDT for going through the motions of providing thoughtful analysis for the sake of the spoiler community even when said intel (ie. a CBS leak) is clearly pointing in one direction. In the past, we've had Survivor winners declared on survivornews.net before the Survivor contestants themselves were informed who had won during the 'finale'. This occured during Survivor Marquesas when Vecepia was announced as the winner several days earlier. One of the primary outlets for the online spoiling community are fantasy games like SNN's own Scurvy Dog pool. I would submit that a spoiler source isn't acting in the best interests of the community at large if 'CBS leaks' are relayed to set groups of individuals so they can chime in collectively with overwhelming and consistently accurate information several days prior to an episode's airing. Leaks essentially sabotage these outlets for Survivor enthusiasts hoping for fair competition between fans. Mind you, there's no reason to expect that any of these trends will change... nor has there been any onus on resources like SNN and TDT to not continue pursuing leaks, intel and other sources as they have done in the past. It's the responsibility of CBS and Mark Burnett to properly protect the secrets of their franchise and prosecute when necessary and there have been countless documented instances where that simply hasn't happened. My prevailing concern is that as the leaks continue to get more and more prolific and the 'circle of preferred Survivor fans' with direct access to these leaks and intel gets larger is that we may soon not have anything to ponder on a weekly basis as a boot order is handed to us before it ever plays out on screen. One could even put forward the argument that we've known how Episode 5 will play out for over a week now thanks to Snewser's infamous 'double checkmarks'. All-Star Survivor has the makings of being something truly memorable but if we find out before the SuperBowl that it boils down to Susan / The Robfather and know the general order in which people will get tossed, won't that take away from some of the lustre? == Brad Lascelle <blascelle@gto.net>
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-15-03, 02:17 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
Welcome Brad! One heck of a first post! Thanks for your thought provoking comments. In a perfect world spoiling would be pure. There would be no leaks, no false rumors, no uncle cameraman...but the nature of spoiling has evolved just like Survivor itself. We spoilers have become more sophisticated and the spoiling community has become better organized. We should all be proud of that... Over the last seven seasons spoiling has changed because we have become so much better at gathering and sharing information. As a result many have built relationships that result in inside information, leaks and tips. But the reality is most of us still aren't completely sure which tips are fropm valid sources and which are not. That was kind of the point of this thread. Spoiling the Spoilers, separating the reliable leaks from the erroneous ones, has become as important a part of spoiling as doing the vidcap analysis or speculating about weight loss. Take your comment for example... > One could even put
>forward the argument that we've
>known how Episode 5 will
>play out for over a
>week now thanks to Snewser's
>infamous 'double checkmarks'. I did put forth this arguement, but if you go to the vote thread you'll see that very few have chosen to accept the leak as fact, or interpret the riddle Snewser has teased us with differently than you or I. It just adds another piece of the puzzle for us to fit into place. Knowing who is voted the ultimate survivor is not what we are here for...it's about the process, about figuring about how we get from here to there. Spoiling will not lose its lustre just because we get better at what we do...
Krautboy
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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10-16-03, 02:19 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-03 AT 02:19 AM (EST)Welcome! Krautboy and Veruca are great ambassadors for survivorblows.com (one of the best and most congenial survivor sites on the net) and have made many of the points I'd wished to. You pointed out a key dilemma that has troubled this and other sites since about season three--there's a difference between spoiling the show based on clues one derives from the editing, previews, pre-season interviews, t.v. guide reports and news interviews from booted players, and "spoilers" which result from people who actually have inside information. Websites like Snewser and TDT, and ACME in the past, clearly have gotten game-day info on who the boot was, and maybe even have gotten true spoiler info prior to the day of the show. Most of them have been cagey at best, until game-day at least, in revealing such info. This helps to preserve the integrity of those who want to "spoil" the game based on clues and deduction, as well as the prediction games, as even Snewser closes his game prior to posting "day-of" predictions of who he thinks will be booted. Survivorblows.com actually changed it's spoiler games to close earlier because of this, as have others, not without debate, of course. The survivor online spoiling community is interesting. It has its roots in a group of folks that NEVER thought EMP could pull off a reality game where the winner was really a surprise. It set off perhaps the most dedicated community of t.v./internet spys who initially only wanted to call EMP's bluff, but then got caught up in the game themselves. Those who want to solve the puzzle "purely" (i.e. without insider info) have become mixed up with those who want to "spoil" the game (i.e. won't stop until they get the inside leak that reveals all). As a longtime participant of this site and others, I know the joy of figuring out the outcome from the editing, etc., vs. having the answer revealed, and what that means to me. You deal with it, both ways. Whew! To wrap this up, the idea that there are those out there who might actually know the outcome has been dealt with pretty well, I think, by both the sites that have that info, and the spoiler sites who speculate and have prediction games based on the show . . . they don't show their cards until the day of the show, after most votes and prediction games are in. And as they've always said on ALL the spoiler boards, don't go there if you don't want to know. That's my two cents, as a "spoiler" who's been around since survivorsucks.com in season one. It's a tricky business, this spoiling business 
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Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-03, 10:02 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Spoiling the Spoilers" |
Great job thanks alot but r u sure about that dead pelican. I heard that when the dead pelican returned he was talkin about an alliance with Rupert and christa workin to his advantage later in the game
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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10-16-03, 04:00 AM (EST)
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30. "TDT Update" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-03 AT 04:02 AM (EST)Snewser and TDT have apparently both just received a tip that Rupert is safe in EP5. The SNN Scorecard has been updated to reflect this change, as has the Survivometer. Both list Rupert as safe for EP5. Interesting note: Christa has been moved to the top of TDT's list and he has added a cryptic comment about Trish? Spoiling the Spoilers, we might guess that Trish is the one who switches alliances to join up with Shawn/Jon and Michelle to vote out Christa...
Krautboy
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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10-16-03, 09:50 AM (EST)
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33. "TDT & Snewser" |
TDT and Snewser both seem fairly confident about 8 of the jury members. The interesting thing is that the lists aren't identical. Eight out of 9 are the same. So let's assume they're both right. Here's how we end up:TDT(http://www.truedorktimes.com/s7/survivometer7.htm):
Tijuana, Darrah, Andrew, Osten, Sandra, Burton, Lillian, Christa Snewser (http://survivornews.net/snn.php?sid=scorecard):
Tijuana, Darrah, Andrew, Osten, Sandra, Burton, Lillian, Trish Put those together, and here are the nine members of the jury:
Tijuana, Darrah, Andrew, Osten, Sandra, Burton, Lillian, Christa, Trish This leaves us the following boots to predict:
Jon, Shawn, Rupert, Michelle, and Rhino
Now time for wild speculation with Bebo, as I try to piece together how the game gets from where we are now to that jury.
Current tribes:
- Morgan: Andrew, Rhino, Osten, Tijuana, Darrah
- Drake: Jon, Shawn, Rupert, Michelle, Trish, Sandra, Christa
- Ghosties: Nicole, Ryan S, Lillian, Burton
If Christa is to be resurrected, she must first be voted out. So that takes us to:
- Morgan: Andrew, Rhino, Osten, Tijuana, Darrah
- Drake: Jon, Shawn, Rupert, Michelle, Trish, Sandra
- Ghosties: Nicole, Ryan S, Lillian, Burton, Christa
From these groups, here's how the eliminations would break down, numbers-wise:
- Morgan: 1 eliminated, 4 jury
- Drake: 4 eliminated, 2 jury
- Ghosties: 2 eliminated, 3 jury If the spoiler is true that the three tribes compete with both of the losing tribes going to TC, then we could be looking at three ICs.
- Morgan wins 2 out of the 3. When they lose, they vote out Rhino. This fufills the spoiler that Rhino is a victim of the twist.
- Ghosties win the third IC. When they lose, they vote out Nicole and Ryan S.
- Drake loses all 3, and votes out three of their 4 pre-jury boots. I know, how could a tribe with Rupert lose 3 straight IC's? What if Rupert isn't there for all 3 ICs? The next episode is called "Me and My Snake" and could refer to Jon and Shawn ousting Rupert. Talk about leading up to a big regret, when the loss of Rupert leads to the decimation of the Drake tribe and the pre-jury ouster of the two initiators. Do these snakes lie about Rupert's loyalties after this trip to Morgan? This takes us to the following group of 10:
- Morgan: Andrew, Osten, Tijuana, Darrah
- Drake: Trish, Sandra, one other
- Ghosties: Lillian, Burton, Christa Now we have the "traditional" merge at 10, with that "one other" Drake person being the victim. Things nagging at me:
- Lillian would have to ally with Burton and Christa to vote out her original tribemates. Or at least, she would have to ally in the first vote, since there are 3 Morgan to 2 Drake on that tribe. Does she choose to ally with strength rather than her friend Ryan? Could Lil be involved in the big lie or big regret as a result?
 We really do have guidelines here. Believe it or not, the Guidelines make things more fun. Really.
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cqvenus 9765 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-03, 12:14 PM (EST)
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35. "*bows* to bebo" |
this is a very cool scenario.I hope it isn't true. All along, I've been hope, hope, hoping this 3rd tribe crap won't happen. It's really, really wrong. BUT... it is a twist that you're either going to love or hate, as jiffy said. Which leads me to believe that there won't be any more swapping, that was just a one-time thing for Rupert. I too think he's probably going to go this week... I really can't decide how I feel about this ghostie tribe. It really doesn't seem right to me at all. *sigh* 
- what can I do? *shrug*
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pdragonfly 318 desperate attention whore postings
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10-16-03, 12:32 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: *bows* to bebo" |
cqvenus, I wholeheartedly agree. I think it would be unfair to have rested and fed the booters and then bring them back for revenge.
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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