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Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-10-03, 06:27 PM (EST) "Current Alliances (after Ep4)" I'm not seeing a separate thread to review/discuss the alliances that seem to have formed this season, so I thought I'd start one up. Apologies if this has been done and my failing eyesight hasn't lead me to it. Morgan: Strong alliance: Osten - Tijuana - Andrew - Ryan O While this is a strong alliance, it may be one primarily of convenience that will fail if Morgan is pushed to cut down to only three members. Quasi-strong alliance: Osten - Andrew They may think they have a Rich/Rudy alliance but I think either is willing to screw the other. That might not happen for awhile, but it'll happen. Weak alliance: Osten - Tijuana Just haven't seen much to support this, though it's been discussed. Terrible alliance: Ryan O - Darrah - others? Darrah seems to be the outsider in this tribe right now and unless she gets immunity with the Drakes stealing her, she should go next. Drake: Strong alliance: Jon - Shawn After Ep4 this seems to be the best alliance in the game. Both are in other alliances and can manipulate voting. Jon gave Shawn the straight scoop on Burton's ouster. My gut feeling is that this alliance will last a long time. Jon seems to be the player we're all supposed to hate and wind up rooting for at the end. Convenient alliance: Trish - Jon - Christa - Rupert - Sandra Sandra, Trish and Christa all want to be in an alliance, Rupert is happy to join up, but might not be fully committed, and Jon is clearly playing his own game. This alliance probably wouldn't last through another tribal council. UTR alliance: Trish - Christa - Rupert - Sandra It seems this group might be in an alliance with pairings of Christa/Rupert, Trish/Sandra, but so far this alliance hasn't been openly revealed. Weak/null alliance: Jon - Michelle - Shawn - Burton Michelle must realize by now she's been screwed by Jon or Shawn or both. She may try to align elsewhere, but I see her being kept around to support Drake votes and then being booted 5 or 6 from the end. Her best hope is to pal up with Morgan if she makes it to the merge. Anyhoo, those are my thoughts. I think it's interesting that Drake has formed more complex alliance dynamics than were developed at Morgan. I guess that's what happens when none of your tribemates are clear weaklings or troublemakers. Flaming and bashing can now commence. -P   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Morgan alliance mavsfan 10-10-03 1    RE: Morgan alliance benjapol 10-12-03 5  RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) I_AM_HE 10-10-03 2    RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) frisky 10-11-03 4  RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) Oscirus 10-11-03 3  RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) PhoenixMons 10-13-03 6    RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) Brownroach 10-14-03 12  RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) FarmBoy 10-13-03 7    RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) jkokoj 10-13-03 8        RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) bebekid 10-13-03 9            RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) DoodleBug 10-13-03 10            RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) Blow by Blow 10-13-03 11                RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) LeftPinky 10-14-03 13                RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4) wendyp 10-14-03 14

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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 10-10-03, 08:18 PM (EST) 1. "Morgan alliance" I see the Morgan alliances as 1) Andrew - Osten - Tijuana 2) Andrew - Ryan - Darrah I think Andrew values the Osten - Tijuana alliance more because he values Osten more than Ryan. In either case Andrew seems to be the swing vote at this stage.   Top

benjapol 93 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 10-12-03, 05:32 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Morgan alliance" Don't forget Tijuana-Darrah. They're often seen together and T was the one to tell Darrah that she was the target   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-10-03, 08:30 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" I think the strong alliance in Morgan may be Andrew-Tijuana it was these two we saw discussing whether to keep Lillian or Darrah. A talked to L, T to D.   Top

frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-11-03, 10:15 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" I agree. Andrew also had a quickie "sidebar" with TJ before deciding to steal Rupert.   Top

Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-11-03, 02:17 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" Dont know why but it's starting to seem more and more like there is a Darrah Osten alliance   Top

PhoenixMons 4696 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 10-13-03, 04:25 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" I just found my tape with ep 1 & 2, so I can go back and look for alliance cues throughout the season thus far. Once I do that, I'll come back and add my thoughts, but for now, I've got an idea about where alliances lie on each tribe. Drake: Seems to me that there are two main camps at Drake...the immature group (Jon, Shawn, Michelle who's now an outsider) and the mature group (Rupert, Christa, Trish, Sandra). I have to go back to see where the "meeting place" is with these two factions...I think it's Jon and one or two from the mature group (I remember Jon talking to them, I think either Sandra and Trish or Trish and Rupert, about how the others were going to get rid of Christa). So Johnny Fairplay does appear to have somewhat of an "in" on both sides. Strongest alliance in Drake remains to be seen as they really haven't been put to the test yet. But there are clips of Jon "ratting out" Shawn at camp for his vote against Burton, so I'm not sure how that comes to pass or what is behind this. Rupert and Christa seem to have the closest bond, but I'm not sure that bond equates a strong alliance. Morgan: Tijuana definitely runs this tribe. She's the one who seems to be making all of the decisions and she seems to do a lot of the "talking to" of people with "problems" (Darrah, Osten). Tijuana and Osten seem to have a tight bond as she was very disturbed when Osten was talking about quitting. Andrew and Tijuana are probably fairly aligned as well. Tijuana certainly seems to be the one that is in the center of her tribe, though. Tijuana seems to be a very smart woman...let Andrew take the blame for Morgans "suckiness" as the leader, while she's really pulling all of the strings. Hopefully it won't bite her in the butt later as she's the only Morgan I really like. Darrah certainly does seem to be on the outside, HOWEVER, I think Darrah and Tijuana (and possibly Osten) are linked as well. Tijuana is seen discussing voting with Darrah (Lill vs. Darrah ep. 2) and it just seems that there MUST be a reason for Tijuana discussing this with Darrah (it wouldn't be very wise to do so if you weren't in a sort of alliance with potential bootee). My guess is that Tijuana swayed Andrew to vote for Lill (he seemed to be leaning in the other direction from the comments he made) over Darrah because Tijuana and Darrah are linked in some manner. Ryan O. is in the weakest position on Morgan (as he doesn't have a connection with TIjuana other than the main alliance) and will likely be the next to go (he doesn't have any major alliances other than the 4-way voting block of T, O, A, and himself). Next would probably be Andrew (I think Tijuana is aligned with him out of convenience), leaving T, O, and D as the strongest alliance from Morgan. Not sure about an Andrew-Osten alliance right now. I will have to go back to watch tape, but I think it's a one way street (Andrew just feels they NEED Osten, Osten has no real reason to ally with Andrew whose power position seems to only be for show) if anything at all. I *heart* my ©2003 GeorgiaBelle Creation "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it" - Mohandas K. Gandhi   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-03, 11:37 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" and it just seems that there MUST be a reason for Tijuana discussing this with Darrah (it wouldn't be very wise to do so if you weren't in a sort of alliance with potential bootee). I think Andrew and Tijuana were trying to decide which of Lill and Darrah should get booted, and decided that each would talk to one of them and then come back and report. Andrew had been closer to Lill than to Darrah; Tijuana was closer to Darrah than to Lill. I think either one of them could have been booted, but it was Ryan O. telling Andrew that he would not be in the alliance if they voted off Darrah that sealed Lill's fate.   Top

FarmBoy 2618 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 10-13-03, 04:20 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" It looks like Morgan is going back to TC in Ep. 5 based on current spoiler info. This has me thinking about alliances and it looks like Darrah is in trouble. If the "choose someone from the other tribe" continues- Does anyone think Drake will choose Darrah? Rupert will be able to tell Drake all about Morgan. This would screw up Morgan's planned voting (per Andrew comments). I think Tijuana is "most" safe in this scenario. I think Osten is on the far edge of the plank if Andrew still controls the vote. The other 3 could mutiny and vote out Andrew though. Any thoughts? Bovinated- An Original Draco Masterpiece   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-13-03, 04:44 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" Personally I think Andrew has to be in trouble. I agree with others that TJ has his ear. I really think she is the one running the show using Andrew as the "leader". Not sure about this whole choosing another tribe member. Unless we get some other vid cap confirmation it is hard to speculate that Darrah will go to Drake. My problem, I just don't like Andrew. So he probably stays.   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 10-13-03, 04:51 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" >Not sure about this whole choosing >another tribe member. Unless >we get some other vid >cap confirmation it is hard >to speculate that Darrah will >go to Drake. Only that it would easily explain how she gets to the end. If the Morgan five go back to TC, then she is in deep trouble. Unless TJ and Andrew get freaked out about RyanO's bond with Rupert, which is entirely possible and likely. A Kyngsladye Original   Top

DoodleBug 5133 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-13-03, 05:22 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" It's been rumored that Ryan O is a victim of a tribal swap. If Darrah is the stolen Morgan, then I think Rhino will get booted. He'll be the odd man out of the four. If any of the other Morgans are captured, then Darrah would be in trouble. So I think Darrah can only be saved if Drake steals her. Which would be a wise move because that forces Morgan to vote out a "strong player". A Kyngsladye Original   Top

Blow by Blow 895 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-13-03, 05:29 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" I really like some of the stuff Phoenix added up above, especially regarding Morgan. Although it's hard to know for certain what the true alliances are, it definitely seems that Tijuana is pulling the strings very delicately while Andrew appears to be the one in charge. One thing that's sticking in my head is that when Lill was voted out, Tijuana went off to have a long talk with Darrah and came back to report to Andrew that Darrah just didn't say much. We didn't get to see any of that conversation so we don't actually know if Darrah was all, "Duh, I sure don't know what's going on," or if she was actually plotting long-term strategy with Tijuana and TJ just came back with a bogus report. Although I'm not certain where the true alliances are, I'm pretty sure that whoever Tijuana has a strong alliance with is going to be in good shape for the near future. If Drake wins IC, here are the various scenarios as I see them (from least likely to most likely): Steal Osten: I can't imagine they'll actually do this, so what's the point in speculating. TJ convinces RyanO that he should vote for Andrew, then she convinces Darrah and Andrew that Ryan's the man to go and he gets the boot with the added benefit that everyone on the tribe now has votes against them, except for TJ. Ain't she smart? This would support a TJ/Darrah alliance. Steal Tijuana: I'd be very surprised if TJ was the pick. I think she's largely UTR in competitions and probably won't tip her hand to Rupert while he's in camp. However, if she goes to Drake, I see Osten and Andrew staying close and trying to convince Darrah to vote off RyanO, the logic being that the tribe is screwed anyway so why bother keeping someone strong around. Although she won't be there to watch, TJ will be happy with this result. Unlike NickWho in S2, I think we're not seeing much of Darrah because she's a serious player whereas Nick just didn't have any screen presence. So RyanO goes. Steal Andrew: Since he's the perceived leader, Drake might want to steal him to mess up whatever organization the Morgans have (though Rupert should be able to tell they have no organization). In this scenario I see TJ organizing Osten and Darrah to vote out RyanO, again because there's no point keeping strength around. TJ assumes Osten will continue to suck in individual ICs and Darrah can be eliminated at her leisure. This again assumes a TJ/Darrah alliance is solid. Steal RyanO: I can see Drake doing this so that Ryan can't help in the next RC and also to break up any perceived alliances Ryan might have with Darrah or with T/O/A. If Ryan does get picked, I think TJ might pull out her mutiny card and get Osten and Darrah to boot Andrew. Won't he be surprised? This is probably TJ's worst-case scenario because she'd rather keep Andrew around while he's still a dupe and then stick the knife in later. But hey, now's a good time too. She'll just need to figure out how to explain to Ryan when he gets back. Steal Darrah: I think this pick would make the most sense to really bust up the four-way (supposed) alliance. In this case I see TJ organizing Osten and Andrew to boot RyanO, maybe saying that Darrah came up with the idea. No brainer. To recap, in four of the scenarios above, RyanO gets the boot. In one, Andrew gets the boot. My early pick for the week - RyanO! -P   Top

LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 10-14-03, 11:51 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" The only way I can see that Drake would steal Darrah is if Morgan wins RC and Darrah is the one to pillage Drake. We've been set up to believe that whoever does the pillaging makes some attachments at the other tribe (Darrah could play sweet and dumb - shouldn't be much of a stretch) and then is brought over by Drake for 2 purposes: 1 - Drake views Darrah as weak/UTR and they figure she's the next boot, so keeping her at Drake forces Morgan to sacrifice a stronger member (Rhino??) and 2 - Drake enjoyed Darrah (as much as you can enjoy a pillager) and didn't want to see her booted. They don't need additional strength for the next RC, they have Rupert.   Top

wendyp 2081 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 10-14-03, 03:45 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Current Alliances (after Ep4)" I see Drake picking Darrah because Rupert tells them that Darrah is next to go because the others have an alliance. OR that Darrah told him the last vote was against her and Lil. This would be good strategy for Drake as they do not need the strength and this would force Morgan to boot one of their strong players.   Top

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