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"Alex or Rob?"
Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-11-03, 02:01 AM (EST)
 
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"Alex or Rob?" |
Beaming with power, the alliance of Alex, Rob, Jenna and Heidi take it easy while the others toil in the hopes of saving themselves. Given that Matthew, Butch and Christy make the F4, per Chillone and other sources, we know that this alliance revealed does not succeed. We also know that Heidi and Jenna are safe next week so that leaves Alex and Rob. Alex does not seem to have any relationship with Christy or Matt, so Rob is the one who will most likely take advantage of his PERCEIVED control over Matthew and Butch to get rid of Alex. Rob realizes he is number four in his current alliance...Alex and Jenna are tight, Jenna and Heidi are good friends, that leaves Rob as number four in that alliance. He feels like he controls Matthew and Butch and would stand a better chance of making the F2 with Matthew, Butch and Christy, than with the alliance revealed to us in the previews. It's looking like Rob defects and Alex goes...
Krautboy
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-03, 02:19 AM (EST)
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1. "Rob is the only one with links to both sides..." |
Rob will figure out that he is number 4 on the A/J/H show.With Deena now gone, Rob will perceive that his only option is to exploit his relationship with Matt and jump to the ship of misfits. I'm thinking that a good old fashioned spurning at the hands of Heidi is 8-ball Boy's future as well. If I'm not mistaken, KB, did you not predict this approx two weeks ago?
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alleyb 98 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-11-03, 03:22 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
You are so right.It wouldn't seem so obvious if MB wasn't flaunting the Power 4 alliance already. And Rob has already said that he doesn't trust Jenna and Heidi for using their sexuality to gain favor. It seems that Rob will play along, and then stab the Power 4 in the back. This episode, Rob forced himself into a corner, but one that was already set up with a back-up plan (unwittingly, so it seems). Sending Matt out on his "wild goose chase" against Deena ended up reaping incredible rewards for him. Now Matt trusts him more than ever, and he is in the middle between the Power 4 and the outsiders. He has to know that Alex/Jenna/Heidi will be a one-way ticket to 4th place, so I think he'll play along with them, and then take advantage of his position in the game and utilize his hard-won trust with Matt to bring down Alex. As the Magic 8 Ball would say—future uncertain, outlook good. Plus, if Rob chooses this path, he could ensure Deena's vote by proving his loyalty to her (and explaining that he had no choice in her ousting, but revenged her admirably). Rob is in the most powerful position in the game. Where will he take it? And will it lead to his ultimate downfall? All I can say is thank God (Halleluhah!) for Rob this season. He is the most interesting Survivor player yet. This has been Rob's show from day one, and he just keeps getting better and better. Not many can straddle the line between entertaining personality and master player (Brian H. made me wonder if a master player could ever be all that entertaining to watch). I just hope that he doesn't screw it up (and fulfill ChillOne's quasi-spoilers). Come-on Rob! Prove your worth now that you've really gotten into the heart of the game!
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-03, 07:11 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
Let's look at it piece by piece.Who's most likely to leave the alliance? 1. Jenna -Probably not. She's formed pretty much no bond with Christy or Butch. However, the easiest way to get the CO Final 4, would be if Jenna defects with Christy, Matt, and Butch (for some reason) 2. Heidi -Definitely not. Heidi's with Jenna and Alex, and her boot soon will show she's on the bottom end of the alliance. 3. Alex -Nope. Same reasons as Heidi. 4. Rob -Probably the best bet. The guy probably sees the writing on the wall by now. Even if he goes with them, he'll end up in 4th place. However, he has Matthew in his pocket supposedly. If he can boot Jenna, Alex, and Heidi, then he could use Matt to get him to the Finals. He doesn't have anyone that close in his current alliance. I'm predicting an Alex boot. I'm going to be gone til Sunday. Happy spoiling! This is really our last week left. 
In Honor of Summary Writers...
4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki
5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir
6. "Christy’s smile... one of the 1,612 defining moments" -TeamJoisey
7. "Christy wins the Jan Gentry “Aim High” Award" -Fester
8. "Heidi and Jenna are more Butch than Butch" -Draco
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Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 09:58 AM (EST)
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5. "Rob's in the driver's seat" |
IMO, Deena and Rob understand this game better than any other contestants since the beginning, except Rich and maybe Brian. They understand that it is a game, where you will form alliances for as long as it benefits you, then change or abandon them when it is to your benefit. It's an individual game. It's not about making friends and being loyal to people. You play the game to win, as you would with any other game, then when it's over, you can be friends, or not.Rob gets criticized for overplaying. Someone called his "flipflop" a gufu. I disagree. Look what he's done. He's manoevered himself into a great position of power. No matter what he does he appears to be assured to make the final four. But he can do better: Matt and Butch are out on a limb; Rob is their only connection to the tree. Christy is an orphan; Alex and the Boobsies won't give her the time of day. Along comes Rob to save the game for all three of them. It's what he's been doing all along - find the worried outsider who will grasp the proffered straw and do what he says. This should not only help him advance but also hold on to jury votes, should he make the finals.
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PrettyInPink 85 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-13-03, 09:08 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Rob's in the driver's seat" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-13-03 AT 09:14 AM (EST)<<you will form alliances for as long as it benefits you, then change or abandon them when it is to your benefit. It's an individual game. It's not about making friends and being loyal to people.>> That's very true, yet it's amazing how many people in this game, every season, vote off others due to perceived betrayals. Jenna just did it to Deena, as we saw, and I think it's going to be the cause of Rob's downfall very soon. I think the general train of thought that Alex will go next per Rob's little bit of control that he has left is correct. Both Matt and Alex are huge immunity threats. But Matt has no "social" power the way Alex does. Alex has Heidi and Jenna in his hip pocket, and if Rob can get rid of Alex, he may feel he has total control over Heidi and Jenna, as well as Butch and Matt, who he's already been manipulating. That's his train of thought however - but I don't think that's how it will go. I'm figuring Matt goes on an immunity run - he wins next, leaving Alex vulnerable. Heidi and Jenna will never go along with booting Alex, but Rob, Matt, Christy and Butch will. Now, that sets us up for Alex's boot, which given the way people *do* vote when betrayed, may lead Heidi and Jenna to circle back to Matt, Butch and Christy and tell them about Rob defecting and playing both sides. I predict that Alex will go next, but Rob will be gone after him when the rest of the tribe compares notes. I do agree with you when you say this shouldn't be a game about making friends - in an ideal world, it shouldn't be. But it is. We see that time and time again - Alex and Jenna talking about how the two of them, Rob and Heidi are "The Bonding Crew" - then finding out that Rob has the knife out for them. Some of the most fiery speeches at Tribal Council boil down to betrayed friendships - and that's where Rob's downfall will come into play, and it's going to be specifically because of what he did to Alex. 
"What about prom, Blane?"
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-03, 10:21 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-03 AT 10:23 AM (EST)Agree, which means the BostonGuy spoiler is now officially bunk. Rob will get rid of Alex without Jenna's and Heidi's assistance (or knowledge). Christy voted for Alex this week and would vote for him again. All Rob has to do is tell Matt and have Matt tell Butch... The following week Rob will continue to whittle the group down, severing Heidi from Jenna. Jenna will appear helpless at this point, which will ultimately make her look sympathetic to the viewers (and jury?) at F2 -- she was "betrayed" by Deena, and then by Rob, and had to fight for her life. It's funny how these players have been acting like Butch and Christy aren't even there, except to pull them into whatever the strategy-du-jour is going to be at TC. It's no wonder they get to the Final 4. One of them should have been disposed of this week. That was Deena's mistake.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-03, 10:28 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-03 AT 11:44 AM (EST)I'm going to guess prematurely that Matt wins IC again, because if he doesn't, I think Alex, Jenna, Heidi and Christy would all vote for him. If Matt wins IC, Christy herself may very well be the target of A/J/H. She will see that it's going to be either her or Butch, with the other one getting the boot next, so voting against Alex is really the only thing she can do, imo. ***Edited to reconsider: Actually, given the preview that the alliance is "flaunting its power", Christy probably wouldn't vote against Matt if he lost IC. But Rob probably would. It also struck me that , from what we know of the endgame, it's sort of as if the "Fake Final 4" picture that didn't materialize in S1 is happening this time around. Matt, Christy, and Butch will be like Sean, Colleen and Gervase, and Jenna will be like Rudy -- the only one left out of the "power" alliance.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 10:29 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
Yes, Rob can get 3 votes against Alex, but he cannot count on Christy voting along. Hell, he never evens talks to her. Both Rob and Christy were part of Deena's discussion when she started talking about getting rid of Alex. Rob hasn't had to try and pull Christy aside for voting discussions, because he's let Deena do the dirty work there, like he lets Matt do the work with Butch. And he can follow the same strategy in trying to keep Christy voting against Alex, by letting Matt handle those conversations. I think Deena had convinced Christy that it would be an all-female final 4, with Rob as their fifth wheel to get rid of the stronger ones. When she sees Jenna and Heidi lazing around with Alex and Rob, it won't be hard to convince her that that's over. If she does nothing and just lets them operate, she's no better than 5th without immunity. If she joins in the voting against Alex, she can work her way up to 4th. I think Butch was the one who pointed out that you just try to figure out a way to move your link further up the chain, so he and Matt should be able to convince her.  Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.
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justalurker 7 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-11-03, 10:38 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
But remember, Deena was talking to Rob and Christy about voting out Alex, so Rob and Christy have talked with one another about voting strategy. For all she knows Rob could have stuck with his word and voted for Alex, remember they didn't show the last vote. So I think she may have some trust in him and he may use that to continue in the game.
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jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 11:40 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
KB,
Great point about Heidi.Glad I spurred some discussion. I agree that Christy was there when Deena was setting up the Alex vote, and so was Rob. My only point is that I could see Christy voting out Rob, if it becomes a Rob vs. Alex. Yes, she Probably vote against Alex, but she has been so neglected by Rob, I would not be shock it Rob was next.
Peanut Butter Jeff
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 03:35 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
I think Christy has been neglected by Alex & the Hooter girls even more...at least she was connected somewhat with Rob via Deena. I think she's had more contact with Rob than the popular crowd.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-11-03, 11:57 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
Just to point out, KB -- Milkshaky clarified (somewhere on the SS board) that Heidi just felt that Christy was self-absorbed and didn't really get along well with her. She doesn't "hate" Christy, she just didn't care for Christy in general. And we might guess that Christy felt the same way about Heidi. I don't think the votes at this point would affect their general lack of friendliness.
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djandy 1711 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 10:28 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
Definitely Alex will go for all of Krautboy's reasons, but also Rob will display his characteristic jealousy about Alex's winning ways with the ladies, and Rob will want him GONE so that he can have a chance with Heidi. Funny how Rob keeps getting rid of so many guys, and yet he still has no chance with Heidi. Which will lead to Heidi's boot next week when Rob is spurned.
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snoocharoo 1 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-11-03, 12:38 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
Unless of course Jenna and Heidi use that wonderful gift of gossip that all women possess and squeal like pigs to Matt about Rob's attempts to dupe him. Then we could see it go like this:Ep. 10 Boot = Alex
Rob jumps over to the side of the Misfits to eliminate his precieved biggest competition Alex. Rob thinks he has Matt eating out of his hand and can control the vote. Ep.11 Boot = Rob
A bitter Silicone Sisterhood start talkin out their necks about the b.s. Rob has pulling, they expose him to Matt who orchestrates the cannibal feast. Ep. 12 Boot = Heidi
Loose lips sink ships. The others know that they must break up the Silicone's NOW. Jenna may win immunity here and Heidi goes in a 3-2 vote. 
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Fast Eddie 625 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-11-03, 01:40 PM (EST)
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21. "Heidi first?" |
It might make more sense for Rob to orchestrate Heidi's ouster first. He's seen that she has a big mouth, which hasn't been applied to him, and it would be better for her to go first, before she blabs to Matt. Jenna still could, but she hasn't been that type. I don't think Alex and Jenna have heard as much of Rob's Matt-bashing, as they were away all day on their Reward.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-11-03, 04:13 PM (EST)
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28. "MilkShaky Spoiler" |
Hi Snooch!Milkshaky is a regular spoiler at SS who apparently has a real life contact who knows Heidi. Heidi was the first contestant identified befor the show started. Milkshaky was the one who first posted it. He made this prediction long before the contestants were announced. He was ridiculed at first, then after the cast announcement, praised. Milkshaky is the one who posted that Heidi and her friend (which we now know is Jenna)would make the merge. He also received information that Heidi did not make the F4. More recently he reported that he was 99.9% sure Heidi would be booted during the episode that aired on May 1. This post was made before we had received confirmation of a recap episode. Until that date was announced we were unsure when Heidi would go. Once we found out EP11 will air on May 1, we were able to conclude that Heidi leaves after the EP10 boot (Alex?) and before the EP12 boot (Rob?)...leaving the ChillOne F4. That's what I remember of it. If anyone else has additions or corrections, jump right in... Hope that helps.
Krautboy
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LeftPinky 4150 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 09:06 PM (EST)
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68. "RE: MilkShaky Spoiler" |
I completely agree. Alex must go this week (big IC threat), Heidi goes next week - can't fault MilkShaky and Rob bites it at number 5.
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 02:30 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
I'd go:Episode 10: Rob realizes he can only finish 4th with Alex/Jenna/Heidi...With Matt/Butch/Christy, he can win taking Christy out in 4th, then Butch and facing jury with Matt. Rob joins the misfits and boots out the other "Think I'm in charge person" Alex
Episode 11: Misfits stick together and vote out Heidi before Jenna as a mercy killing due to her injuries
Episode 12: Jenna wins immunity and the misfits go after Rob who was the only non-original misfit. Jenna's quotes about never win immunity increase Irony of this Series. Final 4: Jenna wins IC again, especially if its Fallen Comrades; the other 3 wouldn't have a chance. They take out Christy, either by a 2-2 vote and Christy having more prior votes (I think that will come back), or Jenna knowing Matt/Butch will vote Christy and just joins them. Jenna wins Final 3 IC again, and gets rid of Butch thinking Matt is the easier F2 target.
Irony is the theme this season, and what would be more ironic than to do a show in the Amazon and have a man win.
Matt the underdog wins jury vote 4-3
For Matt: Deena, Rob, Butch, Christy
For Jenna: Alex, Dave, Heidi
Jenna's 3 votes are pretty obvious Butch and Deena for Matt are as well. Christy has never liked Jenna and will most likely get to know Matt better as a fellow outcast. Rob will have time to gloat. He has stated that Jenna wouldn't give him the time of day off Survivor, so this is his payback, and if you can't win yourself, what is more satisfying than having your protege win and take part of the credit.
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Barenaked Ladiesfan 34 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-11-03, 05:16 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
OK, so I have a question about ROB and it may deserve its own thread, but I'll post it here. Here it is: Is Rob really this stupid? I'll elaborate. Now I don't mean to get off on a rant here*, but for the past 3+ episodes, Rob has been going on and on and on about how he wants to can Matteo with extreme prejudice ASAP. If he is a master gamesman, he should realize that with Matt on his hook, he essentially controls not 1, not 2, but now (with Butch as Matt's pseudo-beyatch) 3 votes of the remaining 7 survivors. HELLOOOOOOOOOOO...Ground Control to Major Rob, this is exactly how Brian won. I know that Matt is a HUGE threat IC wise, and he is about as stable as Crispin Glover on 2 double espressos, but knowing that he will do exactly what you tell him to do is a gigantic advantage. Now we are 99% sure that Rob goes soon, and I'll tell you why I think he is going down, and going down Hahd: As my lovely wife and I watched the episode last night, it really struck me what is standing in the way of his cunning and intellect. He is crippled by his hormones. This guy is about as grounded as the Iraqi Air Force, but he really does believe that if he can somehow be alone with Heidiho or Jenna, they'll fall madly in lust with him, and succumb to his adolescent gropings. The delusion that lead me to this is Ep 8 when he went on about Heidi and Dave, and Twigs and Sticks, and this quote:
"I know Jenna wouldn't pay attention to me in the real world (sic)" Guess what, brainiac, she isn't paying any attention to you now, and she is stuck in a deserted jungle with you. The cameramen get more play than you. Jiffy has more of a chance getting a network tv anchor job at ABC than you have of scoring with her. If he would pull his head out of his hormones, he could win this thing, but he will horn-dog his way straight onto the jury. 'Course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.*
*TM Dennis Miller
________________________________________
"This name is the hairshirt I wear, and this hairshirt is woven from your brown hair"--BNL, "What a Good Boy"
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-11-03, 05:33 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
If he is a master gamesman, he should realize that with Matt on his hook, he essentially controls not 1, not 2, but now (with Butch as Matt's pseudo-beyatch) 3 votes of the remaining 7 survivors.I think Rob does realize this now, or will realize it during the course of the next episode. What he should also realize is that Matt is his ideal F2 partner, since, as you say, Matt will do whatever Rob tells him to, and no one likes Matt. Whether that will ever occur to Rob remains to be seen. He doesn't seem to be thinking about who he wants in the F2 with him, otherwise he might have talked Matt (and by "telephone," Butch) into voting for Alex this week, in order to save Deena, who was Rob's second best F2 option, imo.
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amylynne321 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-12-03, 11:10 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
I LOVE that "by telephone"!!!
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-03, 12:00 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Alex or Rob?" |
ShyMyst --I disagree that Heidi, Jenna and Alex would target Rob if Matt wins IC. Their stated targets would most likely be Matt, if he loses immunity, and Christy, if Matt gets immunity. If H/J/A considered turning on Rob they would need Christy's vote, and I don't think they'd feel they could count on her for that; she just voted against Alex after all. For Rob to turn the tables successfully, he just has to act like he is on board with H/J/A's boot target, so they will believe they have four votes. I think Rob will be pretty convincing at pulling the wool over their eyes.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-03, 02:20 PM (EST)
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53. "Immunity doesn't matter in EP10" |
I think Brownroach is correct about the alternate target IF Matthew wins immunity. The likely target will be one of the three misfits.But I think we should be careful not to assume that Matt must win immunity in order for Alex to go. Even if Matt is targeted and loses the immunity challenge, Rob still needs to make his move in EP10 while he has four votes against Alex. His window of opportunity closes after EP10. Matthew may or may not win immunity depending on whether it is a skill based IC or not, but it has no bearing on Robs plans to get rid of Alex...in fact the misfits are more likely to unit if Heidi, Jenna or Rob win immunity. So the only thing we can assume is that Alex does not win immunity...
Krautboy
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-03, 02:38 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Immunity doesn't matter in EP10" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-03 AT 03:05 PM (EST)Agree, KB -- I posted earlier in the thread that I thought Matt would probably win IC, but it really seems unnecessary -- especially after reading the behind-the-scenes conversations in MarkoPolo's thread. If Rob is going to decide to take out Alex, it's more likely the idea will have hatched before IC occurs. It won't be "Plan B" because Matt won immunity. So Matt may win IC, but he doesn' t have to. **Edited to add: Although if it's a competitive physical IC like the blow-dart/archery challenge, Rob may encourage Matthew to go for the win this time, to ensure that Alex loses.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 02:38 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: Immunity doesn't matter in EP10" |
Maybe, but I think Matt is still gullible enough to believe whatever Rob tells him. All Rob has to do is say he found out that Alex plans to betray them and go to F3 with Jenna and Heidi. Matt doesn't seem to have any direct connection with Alex, he only knows what Rob tells him.For his plan to work, Rob should be most concerned about how Christy will vote. Christy's votes since the merge have all been against male control freak/IC threats. Sure, if Jenna/Heidi/Alex act really obnoxious for the next three days, she might be inclined to vote for Alex again. But Rob doesn't know her well enough to assume that, imo. If Christy has a choice of Alex or Matt to vote for, she might go either way. Better insurance for Rob, then, if Matt wins IC. Then Rob can inform Christy that the others are targeting her. That would seal the deal to get her to vote for Alex.
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tamarama 1785 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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04-15-03, 05:44 PM (EST)
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66. "RE: Immunity doesn't matter in EP10" |
I agree -- PLUS, she knows Deena & Rob were allied, the three of them were talking together about booting Alex. With Deena gone, it will be more natural for her to talk to Rob than to strike up a conversation with Jenna & Heidi. I think Rob will be pretty safe in dealing with Christy. For now anyway.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 06:00 PM (EST)
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67. "RE: Immunity doesn't matter in EP10" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-03 AT 06:35 PM (EST)she is a reasonably smart player (just one with no allies), and I am sure she realizes it is in her best interest to vote against a member of the power alliance rather than unpopular and unallied Matt. Rains, I think that Christy will want to vote against Alex, if she is convinced there is a viable plan to get him out. But don't forget, some players just fall in with the power alliance, for as long as they know there are targets ahead of themselves on the list. It's what Butch did when he voted for Dave. Anyway, I'm speculating from Rob's "point of view", if he decides to use the misfits to take out Alex, and makes this decision before IC. He has to be absolutely certain of two things: 1) He has four definite votes against Alex lined up
2) Alex does NOT win IC Rob controls Matt and Butch, but may be unsure that he can lock in Christy. So he does the following: 1) tells Matt that he found out Alex has betrayed them by aligning with Heidi and Jenna, and Matt is their next target. Rob wants to get rid of Alex now, but he's not sure he has the votes. So Matt absolutely NEEDS to win IC, for his own safety, and to ensure that Alex doesn't. 2) Meanwhile Rob also feels Christy out, telling her that Matt and she are the next targets of H/J/A. Christy will say she's agreeable to vote against Alex, but will probably be skeptical of Rob's motives, since he was part of H/J/A's alliance. She's not close to anyone so she doesn't really know who to trust. 3) Rob is still worried about Christy, but fortunately, Matt wins IC. Now he has more leverage with Christy: she is on the chopping block, since Matt won IC. She HAS to vote for Alex to save herself. Just a theory, since we have plenty of time to dream up scenarios for the next few boots.  And of course there is always the alternate possibility that Heidi helps Rob get rid of Alex, which in under discussion elsewhere...
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 00:16 AM (EST)
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72. "Rob didn't see the end of S5" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-16-03 AT 00:17 AM (EST)>Here it is: Is Rob really this stupid? I'll
>elaborate.
>
>... If he is a master gamesman, he should realize
>that with Matt on his hook, he essentially controls
>not 1, not 2, but now (with Butch as Matt's
>pseudo-beyatch) 3 votes of the remaining 7 survivors.
>
>HELLOOOOOOOOOOO...Ground Control to Major Rob, this
>is exactly how Brian won. Don't forget that Rob and the other S6 contestants were already in the Amazon at the time the final few episodes of S5 Thailand were aired on TV so he doesn't know that Brian's method of having 4 trained pseudo-beyotches performing dog-and-pony tricks for him actually worked. Before Brian, this kind of method had never really been used (Dicque did use Rudy and others in S1, but he never played them against each other). I do think, though, that so much have been made of Rob's supposed expertise of Survivor game-playing and his abuse of Matt that there's only one way this will lead... to his demise by falling on his own sword.
 
Heidi: My biggest assets to the tribe are my athletic skills and my intelligence. I've lost one of them.
Jiffy: Which one?
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-03, 08:46 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Final Immunity" |
I think its more probably that Matt wins final immunity taking Jenna with him over a more harmless Butch. I doubt that. Butch has been the person with whom Matt has bonded the most. I think he would rather take Butch with him on the thought of, "Well, if I can't win it, I'd rather Butch have the money than Jenna." Also, he could use the argument that he has provided more for camp welfare (more fish) and thus is more deserving. Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.
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Solitaire 103 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-03, 02:16 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Final Immunity" |
I also think that people are giving Matt too much credit when they think that he would choose Jenna over Butch to have a better shot at winning with the jury...Matt has shown himself to be clueless about the "game" aspects of Survivor, and I think he would choose someone he likes better over someone he has a chance of winning againts.
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chillinmcmillan 44 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-16-03, 00:03 AM (EST)
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71. "RE: Final Immunity" |
This is why Jenna has to win the final IC, and we all know what the final IC always is, so Jenna outlasts everyone, no one thought that Ethan would lose the final IC, everyone thought he would win becasue he was the most athletic. Matt can't win the final IC becasue he would very obvously take Butch with him, so this explains the proposed Matt, Jenna final 2. As Jenna probably still thinks that Matt is a wacko and she has a better chance of winning with him than with Butch.
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ulalame 778 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-03, 03:05 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
It's very interesting that the game is playing out exactly as hypothesized when EPM referenced John Nash's game theory. The weaker players are systematically taking out the leaders. Roger, Deena, then I think Alex then Rob. What is left then are followers who gained advantage when the leaders made bad moves.
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Barenaked Ladiesfan 34 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-14-03, 02:01 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
I was actually halfway convinced that Matt was going to walk in on Rob's little stand-up act regarding how gullible and clueless he is. I think that Rob's big mouth is going to be the end for him and Matt. It is stupid for him to advertise his control over Matt, simply to try to gain favor with the boobsy twins. His gamesmanship is lacking hard at this point, and he is my pick to get the axe this week. Let's look at the facts:1. Jenna and Heidiho share a brain for the most part (I am not buying into the Jenna is actually smart bit just because she goes to college, Heidi is a teacher and she is as dumb as a brick.) 2. Alex is WAYYYY "cuter" than Rob, and Jenna is infatuated with his charisma. 3. Rob had a strong alliance with Deena, only to turn on her. 4. This tribe has a grudge mentality, and I think nobody wants Deena's partner in crime around any longer than neccesarry. 5. Matt must either find out or be told (to strengthen their position) that Rob is playing him like a Sonata. 6. The booby alliance must, by now (what with Rob's huge mouth) realize that Rob is now in control of 3 votes by proxy, thereby making him almost an alliance of one. They must cut off the head of the chicken to get to the rest. Nash's theory states postulates that the best result is achieved when members of a group do that which is best for themselves AS WELL AS the group. If this were to hold true, getting rid of Rob makes great sense, as he is the only ace manipulator left in the game, and that, more that physical prowess is the name of the game in a short-handed tribe. Remember the Survivor Motto: OUTWIT (cunning) OUTLAST (stamina, physicality) OUTPLAY (gamesmanship) Rob, for all his shortcomings is the acknowledged game master (foreshadowing last episode) and must be removed to bring the game down to a level playing field for the last 6.
--BNLFAN
________________________________________
"This name is the hairshirt I wear, and this hairshirt is woven from your brown hair"--BNL, "What a Good Boy"
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 07:55 AM (EST)
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55. "RE: Alex or Rob? " |
With what we have learned with the spoilers involved (although it has still not been proven conclusively Matt is the final 2 - however I'll go with Alex going next week which would then make it conclusive) we know that Heidi, Rob, and Alex leave.It has already been stated that it will most likely be Rob to see that he is 4th on the foursome and NOW is the time to get himself, Matt, Christy and Butch to vote off one of the other three, no question. Christy no longer has Deena to follow and her opinion of Jenna and Heidi IMO never changed despite she voted along side with them. Christy does not think much of the two of them and seeing that M/B/C observe what is now going on, they will get together out of mutual convenience and necessity. And how does Jenna and Matt end up in the final two? After ousting Alex per se, all bets are off now Heidi and Jenna will know what Rob did and now all bets are off. I can only assume then that the facts are revealed ESPECIALLY to Matthew in order for Rob to go next. Couple that with J or H winning immunity may help to solidify Rob going as well OR Rob going due to a tie which may occur if somehow J/H convince Christy to go back to gender voting leaving H/J/C vs. R/M/B with Rob losing. For Jenna to get to the final two spot I don't necessarily believe Matt makes the decision, I think JENNA may win that crucial immunity and selects MATT to go with her b/c up against Christy or Matt who would YOU choose? I don't know that it is Matt winning that final IC and selecting Jenna; it may be Jenna doing the choosing here.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 11:54 AM (EST)
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57. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
Rob thinks he is the smartest player. But if he is really going to turn on the Alex/Heidi/Jenna trio he has to realize he has very little chance of winning the final vote. He would be sending all the people he has betrayed to the jury. He can't expect that either Dave or Deena will want to vote for him. And if he turns on the 3 in his party he will be stacking the jury with people he has betrayed. He should be thinking of ways to get people voted out that won't put the full blame on him.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 01:34 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
>If Rob were smart, he would
>focus on getting Matt and
>himself into the final two.
> He would receive most
>of the people he betrayed
>because Matt is creepy and
>Matt is not "playing." Rob, who knows the rules and history even better than Probst, is trying the Richard Hatch approach. Yes, Richard was disliked, but he was rewarded for playing. Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 09:47 PM (EST)
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69. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
He's relying on his being the camp entertainer to win him the final vote, with the knowledge that he only needs four votes to win not all seven. The danger in his game is that he risks losing the final vote should his tactics become common knowledge, his game could easily be destroyed by the others just compairing notes.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-03, 11:10 PM (EST)
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70. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
It was comparing notes that did Deena in. She had been promising too many people final 3 status and they talked to each other and realized she was playing too many people.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 11:37 AM (EST)
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73. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- Revisiting Nash" |
I started thinking, though -- Rob was the only member of the alliance of 5 who really didn't make a decision to turn on anyone last week.Deena turned on Alex, then Heidi, Jenna, and Alex turned on Deena (but Alex and Jenna were wondering about Deena at the reward, before they even knew she was targetting Alex). I think Rob would have been preferred to keep the alliance of 5 intact, and get rid of Butch or Christy, as originally discussed, if Matt won immunity. But Deena and Alex were busy making decisions. Rob listened to both sides, and ultimately went along with the scenario that seemed destined to succeed at TC. So he hasn't intentionally backstabbed anyone in his alliance yet. If he decides to band together with the misfits, he could always point out, if he made it to Final 2, that Deena/Alex/Heidi/Jenna took it upon themselves to wreck the alliance of 5. Therefore he didn't trust any of them and worked another angle to get himself ahead. Too bad for them.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 12:58 PM (EST)
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74. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- " |
Bottom lineRob was all for voting off Alex however the numbers wouldn't allow it so he saved his skin
Alex and Jenna appear close
Jenna is close to Heidi
Rob is "close" to Alex Rob knows the deal and knows pecking order in their band-o-four. Jenna and Heidi would soon vote off Rob than Alex. Alex would stick with Rob but then you have a tie. Alex is more inclined to win an IC over Rob leaving Rob vulnerable. Jenna and Heidi will not vote against each other and doubtful to be "manipulated" to do so. Now move over to band-o-three Matthew, Christy, Butch - up #####'s creek without a paddle reinforced by the obvious arrogance of the band-o-four. Hmmm, eyes raised, what's up with this? Rob - I will do what I do best, play both sides of the fence and let the two bands duke it out very simply. I again feed my operative Matt with information who will naturally pass it along in code to Butch with Christy. He could try to manipulate his band-o-four but somehow I don't necessarily see him succeeding with that, Jenna and Heidi talk, Alex and Jenna talk, they would know something is amiss BUT Matt says nothing, he is way deep in covert operations and Rob knows that Matt speaks only when instructed to. Perhaps Rob tells Matthew that Matt's trusted ally (Alex) is planning on ousting him (I do recall a confessional duo of Matt/Alex and they had seemed buddyish; perhaps Matt looks at Alex as a friend and trusted ally- don't forget this is all in the eye of the beholder not what the audience knows) Matt is wounded by this and tells Rob he will vote Alex out then; this cause Matt to be in such a flutter b/c he values honesty and promises you know and Alex really wounded him. Rob knows that Butch with Christy will follow Matt's instructions and therefore know there are 3 votes for Alex. The target by the band-o-four would be Matt probably so essentially Rob ISN'T lying; he just fails to tell Matt that he is part and parcel of this. Interesting again how Rob is situated where HE DECIDES who is going. Alex or Matt Rob took issue with Alex and his leader crap already
Rob knows he can count on Matt's vote (bahhhhhh)
Both of them are a IC threat
Alex is closer to Jenna and Heidi than Rob is
Rob is closer to Matt then Matt is to Butch/Christy Doesn't matter if H/J hate Rob after this, they are only two people now and neither of them are a significant threat physically when he has himself and powerhouse Matt. Rob can then "do away" with his old alliance and be the TRUE LEADER of the minions Matt, Christy, Butch until of course it comes back to bite him in the ass because someone talks, a key immunity is won or something to that effect. There is no reason why Rob wouldn't continue to do what he has been doing and that is playing both sides and now that he is more vulnerable in his band-o-four, it is yet another perfect opportunity.
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amylynne321 30 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 04:27 PM (EST)
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77. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- " |
I agree that Rob's "traitorness" is going to be the thing that gets him booted- BUT NOT YET.Alex, Jenna and Heidi are and would be (and I imagine they're already planning) perfectly content to "save" the Rob boot until they don't need Rob around anymore. (Not this upcoming boot, but the next.) Right now, Rob is the reason they have the majority, and as far as they know, Rob is completely on board with them. He makes fun of Matt behind Matt's back, he excludes Christy and Butch, and he chose Alex over Deena at a crucial junction in the game. They have no reason to question Rob's loyalty because he proved himself; and since Alex is feeding Rob the line that it's Alex and Rob in the Final Two and apparently to Alex, Rob is going right along with it, they have no reason to doubt him. A/J/H are relaxed because they feel they have the majority (and Alex said himself- this majority included Rob). They are obviously enjoying the position that "majority" affords them- they are taking advantage of "majority" status- (if they were counting on getting a vote from Christy, Butch or Matt- they certainly wouldn't act that way- so obviously they feel they don't need any of them.) So...why would they vote off Rob next???? They'd lose the majority, become (as far as they know) A/J/H VS. C/M/B and worse yet, their biggest threat come IC is on THE OTHER SIDE!!! IT MAKES NO SENSE FOR ANY OF THEM TO BOOT ROB NEXT!! They can safely boot Rob once they pick off one more person from "the others" so why on earth wouldn't they wait? ON THE OTHER HAND: We already know that Rob doesn't trust Alex and wanted to get rid of him last week. (WE know it- THEY don't know it...) Rob doesn't believe for a second that Alex is actually planning on taking him to the F2 with him. Getting rid of Alex is the ONLY think that makes sense for Rob, if he actually wants to win the game (and I think he does...). Rob only gets (at the very most) fourth place with A/J/H. However, with Matt, Christy and Butch, Rob AT LEAST gets fourth place, and likey (in Rob's eyes at this point) he's gonna go to F2 with Matt because Matt is always gonna win immunity and he's always gonna make sure Rob stays in the game. EVEN BETTER Matt is creepy, everybody knows it, and who wouldn't feel confident going for the million up against Matt?
Rob has only one real decision:
Does he go along with A/J/H and let Alex control the rest of the game- relying on Alex (who he doesn't trust anyway) to take him to F2 over Jenna or Heidi knowing perfectly well that come F4 he's getting the snuff OR Does he go along with Matt and control the game himself? Butch and Christy are going to be easy to convince to vote against Alex (in fact, they're probably already planning on voting for Alex anyway...) Come on-it's an easy move for Rob- he's been making decisions like this the entire game- why would he stop now???
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jegas17 19 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 05:32 PM (EST)
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79. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- " |
TropicGuy1 over at SS says that Rob gets ousted next. Apparently TG1 is a friend of Matt's and he also says that it is a Matt/Butch F2 and NOT Matt/Jenna. I think his F2 prediction is a cover up so Matt doesn't get sued by CBS but he seems to care about his reputation and if Rob isn't next his reputation is toast.
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amylynne321 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-16-03, 05:49 PM (EST)
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81. "RE: Alex or Rob? -- " |
How about a link? Can't find "TropicGuy1" post on SS at all.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 05:10 PM (EST)
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78. "Let's not get too comfortable" |
Rereading through this whole thread, it seems most of us (including me) think Rob will try to jump ship, round up the misfits and take out Alex. Seems pretty easy to accomplish, so Alex goes this week, then Heidi, etc.But...suppose it doesn't go off as planned? Frisky and BNL Fan both posted above alluding to the fact that Matt might wake up very soon. Everybody talks about Matt's cluelessness: Rob, Alex, Jeff Probst, but remember this quote from the pre-show Dallas News article: MATTHEW VON ERTFELDA Strategy "I'm going to come off initially as my real self, a genuine, hard working individual with solid values. But I'm also going to be a jaguar, stealthy, sly, cunning. If someone stabs me in the back and draws first blood, when I think the time is right I'm going to leap out of the shadows and cole slaw my prey" And we have the teaser: Beaming with power, the alliance of Alex, Rob, Jenna and Heidi take it easy while the others toil in the hopes of saving themselves. And the vidcaps of these four sunbathing. Matt may not be playing a "social" game, but he might be much more observant than we are being shown. He did correctly assess his shaky position in Tambaqui after Daniel got booted. Now he sees his buddy Rob sunbathing with Alex, Jenna, and Heidi, beaming with power, while he and Butch and Christy have to do all the work. Then Rob comes to him with a story about how they have to boot Alex next. Will Matt just be gullible and go along? Will he just pretend to go along, but start comparing notes with others? Will he question Rob's loyalty to his face? I'm really starting to think we are being set up by this "clueless Matt" stuff for a big payday. It could be next week.
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amylynne321 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-16-03, 05:35 PM (EST)
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80. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
If it's true that we're being set up for a big payday when it comes to the facade of "Clueless Matt", (and I think we are) I don't think that EPM is gonna blow the whole "Matt isn't as clueless as everybody thinks" bombshell in one single episode.First, there needs to be the "Aha!!" piece of Matt's story/character arc, where he sees something in Rob that doesn't seem right. Then we need the "Doubting What He Sees" piece of the story, then the "Reconfirmation of Suspicion" tidbit, which leads to the "Confronting Rob" part of the story, after which we see "Realization" part by Matt, then he "Get's his Revenge" and axes Rob-- That's a big story for just one episode- ESPECIALLY when Said Matt is slated as F2. EPM should/could/will drag it out over a couple of episodes. All this for Matt in Ep10? I doubt it. I see it beginning next week, coming to a head the Ep11 (instigated possibly by a Heidi boot which doesn't sit right between Matt and Rob for some reason) finally exploding in an Ep12 booting of Rob. I just think the "Dawn of Realization" for Matt who (and I'm betting highly that the Betting Scandal Spoiler is fact) is a Million Dollar Contender has to develope over a few episodes, and since it hasn't even started yet, I don't think Rob can go next.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 05:51 PM (EST)
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82. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
I'm not saying whether I think it is Rob or Alex next. But Matt could already be onto Rob and we just haven't been shown it. They could be saving it for the recrap episode where we will start to see little things like maybe Matt was listening at times when Rob was talking about and making fun of him. Then the next ep after the recrap we see what Matt decides to do about it. Often they use the recrap to redeem an unlikeable player before their boot. Maybe they will use this one to show how Rob isn't the smartie-pants he thinks he is. It could be a recrap ep to show us that Matt isn't clueless afterall. Then there would be plenty of time to show Matt organizing a few people against Rob in the next new ep. He could be closer with Alex than they have led us to believe and he may tell Alex that Rob has been playing both of them. Alex and Matt have done those 2-person camera chats. Rob told both of them that they would be the final 3. Then he told Alex behind Matt's back that Matt is going. Well if he tells Matt the same about Alex and they compare notes... Just a thought. But I could see Matt behind a bush standing quietly listening to everything said about him and not letting on. He is very quiet at times.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 06:15 PM (EST)
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83. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
I don't think that EPM is gonna blow the whole "Matt isn't as clueless as everybody thinks" bombshell in one single episode. First, there needs to be the "Aha!!" piece of Matt's story/character arc, where he sees something in Rob that doesn't seem right. Then we need the "Doubting What He Sees" piece of the story, then the "Reconfirmation of Suspicion" tidbit, which leads to the "Confronting Rob" part of the story, after which we see "Realization" part by Matt, then he "Get's his Revenge" and axes Rob--Well, if all those things occur in the space of one episode, EPM doesn't have a choice. Helping to get rid of Rob doesn't have to be Matt's only strategic act, maybe he goes on to build an endgame strategy in the succeeding episodes.
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jegas17 19 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 08:14 PM (EST)
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89. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
Actually amylynne I think MB wouldn't show Matt "realizing" what was going on until the episode in which Rob gets the boot. This way it will be a huge surprise for the normal viewers who don't come to the boards. That way he could build up a whole show on how Matt got rid of Rob.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 07:49 PM (EST)
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87. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
Irony is the theme this season. We've already seen wonderful use of it with Roger and Deena. MB is saving the best for last...when the "clueless one" outwits and outlasts Rob and the others.Matthew is a Cornell grad, well educated and travelled. He has stated he will not reveal his knowledge and experience, he loves the covert and the cloak and dagger. He wants to play the Jaguar and lurk in the shadows. He researched the Spoiler sites to figure out where S6 was to be held. He has planned ahead and has a clear strategy. He is smart enough to play dumb! His strategy is to act naive, which plays right into the hands of the editors, who are editing him as clueless, until the irony is revealed later. Matthew and Butch have spent lots of time fishing and talking. Butch is a school principle well aware of the politics and games that go on in a school setting... Matthew and Butch are playing the UTR game which JP has stated is risky, but which will ultimately get them to the F4. Matthew is not clueless. He has only been edited that way. Brian liked to share his strategy with the camera in confessionals, as does Rob. Matthew is probably keeping his strategy hidden from the cameras as well, giving MB no alternative but to edit him as clueless...until the irony of it becomes apparent.
Krautboy
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 07:53 PM (EST)
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88. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
It had to be driving MB crazy if everytime Matthew was asked about Rob in an interview he just kept repeating he was his best buddy and he trusted him. Meanwhile Matt knew exactly what Rob was doing. But he refused to divulge that to the cameras in the interview. What could MB do?
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-03, 08:45 PM (EST)
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91. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
Covert op strategy: maintain your cover at all times. If this is what Matt did, it's a brilliant move negating MB's penchant for trying to throw off strong strategies. I think Matt may have already tipped his hand a bit, though, by teasing Rob with how he threw RC9 then winning IC9.
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-03, 09:21 AM (EST)
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93. "RE: Matthew" |
Regardless if Matt is clueless or not (and I'll specify that the "clueness" factor is probably more of a socialization factor than anything else) Matt with Butch's help at least will observe what is happening this week while the band-o-four lie around and the band-o-three are working.The issue REALLY is how clueless Matt is about ROB and Rob's intentions/feelings/motiviations about Matt. Simply put Matt is an extremely well traveled and educated person with perhaps some naivete regarding people (I read a lot about him - see below and I can see where he may be socially inept somewhat; he comes from a well to do background and probably spent more time traveling and studies etc then learning real solid social skills for a situation such as Survivor) If that be the case, Matt, while now "seeing" how the band-o-four is behaving may not attribute any of this to ROB. So if Rob gives Matt the same spiel, and Rob also states to Matt "I'm hanging with these guys so I can get a "read" on what is going on and buddy they want you off kind of thing" I still think Matthew would believe his "friend" but obviously now seeing that the other three are lazing around and he is not part of this clique he may in fact "wake up" to the fact that he should not feel as secure as he seemed to state last TC. But I think that is a separate issue from Rob per se. Matthew's information and quote from the article
Attended culinary school in Paris.
Speaks seven languages.
Has traveled all over the world,
"I typically opt to take the hard road because the rewards are sweeter."
On the show's appeal: "It was made for me. I've already been to environments just as inhospitable, just as treacherous. But it's almost painful to watch if I'm not on it."
On the dangers: "If you're smart the jungle can be a playground. But it's not a petting zoo."
Strategy: "I'm going to try to come off initially as my real self: a genuine, hard-working individual with solid values. But I'm also going to be a jaguar: stealthy, sly, cunning. If someone stabs me in the back and draws first blood, when I think the time is right I'm going to leap out of the shadows and cole slaw my prey." Considering his background, I think he is lovin this cloak and dagger stuff but I also truly believe that everything he has said about Rob (friendship, trust etc) is genuine. Perhaps he does find something out later after next episode but I don't necessarily believe this is all an "act" on his part. The thing is too Matt has been scarily close to being booted, lucky for him he has tried to maintain a somewhat lower profile and someone else ended up being a main focus of wrath for him to ease out of the hot seat, not too mention he has been very valuable to Rob.
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-17-03, 12:09 PM (EST)
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96. "RE: Matthew" |
I don’t necessarily think Matt’s background would make him socially inept. First, I don’t know that he would have made People’s Eligible Bachelor’s List if he was. Second, I don’t think he would be the concept designer for Marriot if they felt he didn’t understand social interaction. Finally, if you look through the courses he had to take to graduate with his degree in Hotel Administration at Cornell, you see a number of people management courses (6 semester hours required of Management Communications and another 6 of Human Resources Management.) Among the Human Resources Management requirements are this gem:
HA115: Organizational Behavior & Interpersonal Skills
This course focuses on managing people in the workplace. Students develop theoretic lenses for understanding people and organizations, and practical tools for accomplishing personal and organizational goals. Topics include: individual differences, conflict management, problem-solving, power and influence, motivation, leadership, coaching and counseling, and group process. Students learn through the case method, self-assessments, experiential exercises, readings, discussions, papers, and group activities.
I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if our old friend John Nash came up in that course somewhere. I think any social ineptness is coming out of his acting clueless, not out of any inherent qualities.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-17-03, 11:57 AM (EST)
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95. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-17-03 AT 01:18 PM (EST)Brian liked to share his strategy with the camera in confessionals, as does Rob. Matthew is probably keeping his strategy hidden from the cameras as well, giving MB no alternative but to edit him as clueless...until the irony of it becomes apparent. KB, I suspect Brian was cautious about saying too much to the camera in confessionals too. We were able to figure out more about his strategy from what others said about their relationships with him, imo. Although it's possible Brian did go into great detail for the camera and we just weren't shown it until the end. But I agree about Matt. It's never been mentioned, but JP must see some of the daily footage in close to real time, or maybe he's provided with an audio feed. It's obvious from his pointed questions at TC that he knows more about what's going on than he would be able to discern just from seeing these people at the challenges. So one aspect of an astute person's strategy might be to "hide" his/her strategy from Jeff Probst as well, by not speaking about it in confessionals. What's got me thinking Rob might tank now is that he's never been the one to initiate a person's ouster. If he senses there's support to get someone out, as with Roger early on, he will wheel and deal to help maneuver it (or back off if it looks like a no-go at the time). He did verbalize the plan at new Jaburu to take out Dave and Roger post-merge -- but someone had to, and he said he was unhappy about talking strategy with the tribe. But when Deena decided to switch from Dave to Roger, Rob went along without questioning it. He told Alex (see MarkoPolo thread) that with Deena, she basically made decisions and Rob didn't have a say. It sounds like he wasn't really happy with that situation, but he did go along with it (and it worked well because it took the heat off him). With Alex, he'd have to feel he won't get Jenna's and Heidi's support. And Matt and Butch haven't overtly expressed a desire to get rid of Alex, that we know of. So Rob will have to do more work than he's been accustomed to to get people on board to boot Alex. My dilemma right now, on a very simplistic level, is this -- assuming ChillOne and Milkshaky are correct: If Alex goes next (due to Rob and the misfits), I can see why Heidi would get booted in Ep 11. But I can't really see why Rob would get booted in Ep 12. If Rob goes next, I can't really see why Heidi would get booted in Ep 11. But once she is gone I can see why Alex would get booted in Ep 12. Anyway this thresd is getting really long. We should probably start a new one after the recrap to continue the Alex/Rob discussion.
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-17-03, 12:18 PM (EST)
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97. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
I think the key to Rob getting tossed in Ep 12 is Matt, or more aptly, the character of Matt that MB has created. I re-watched the Saturn DVD again, and Matt makes several statements of interest. In addition to making a "they might as well write me the check now" statement, he says that a: He has watched the show
b: He plans on playing it naive, and doing that as long as he needs to. Couple this with all the info there is on Matt’s background, and I think the “Matt is actually clueless” debate should be put to rest. He’s playing a part, and either playing it so well he’s fooling MB as well or, has played it so well MB decided that Matt’s clueless character is the perfect fit for the story he wanted to tell in this Survivor. I lean towards the latter. After all, MB had to have had some hand in editing the Saturn DVD, didn’t he? And if you think about it, it’s really the only way he could go. He’s is probably the most physically capable Survivor contestant there has ever been. 1 (See below – an about the author that accompanied an article Matt wrote about his trek to meet cannibals.)(I can’t believe I’m footnoting a Survivor post – curse you, law school! *Shakes fist at heavens*). How better to disguise one’s ability to survive than to act as if one doesn’t know what’s going on. So, if the character of Matt (as opposed to Matt himself) is clueless, then I think we will see a quick reveal of this as opposed to a slow dawning of it, such that it almost has to come in the same episode where Rob gets the boot. I don’t think anything else would fit the Matt character MB has created. So my point, and I do have one, is that Rob going down could work like this: First, Matt doesn’t win immunity in Ep. 12. While it would help if Jenna did win immunity, I don’t think it’s necessary. All that’s necessary is that Matt doesn’t win. Jenna, desperate to stay around, convinces Rob that they should be the Final 2. But they need to get rid of Matt. Since Matt didn’t win immunity, the time to do it is now. So she sends Rob out to recruit Butch and Christy. But Butch and Christy don’t bite, and instead tell Matt. Matt, Butch, and Christy then vote Rob out on a 3-2 vote. At least that’s one way it could happen. 1 About the author: So how did a fellow from South Dartmouth find himself trekking through the jungles of New Guinea in search of cannibals, you ask? Matthew Von Ertfelda, 29, says he "was always keen on taking the path less traveled." The son of Harry and Kathleen Von Ertfelda, Matthew was born in Hong Kong but grew up in South Dartmouth. His love of adventure took hold as a teen-ager, he says, when he went on two Earthwatch expeditions. The first involved a trip to St. Croix, one of the Virgin Islands, to help a team trying to save the endangered leatherback turtle, the second to the island of Rarotonga in the Cooke Islands in the South Pacific, where he studied ancient Maori settlements.
During his senior year at Middlesex School in Concord, Matthew took part in an underwater excavation of a galleon that sank off the Mariana Islands in the Western Pacific. The search for sunken treasure, he notes, was "every kid's dream." So, why on earth did a young man with a taste for fine food and entertainment decide to go off in search of cannibals in New Guinea? Matthew readily admits to an interest in "recreational activities that involve a certain amount of risk." He counts skydiving, rock climbing and mountaineering among those interests. His adventuresome spirit was further whetted by a risky trek through a stretch of jungle in Panama and Colombia, dangerous in the extreme not only because of the hardship of the environment but also because of the criminal element roaming there. But he "enjoyed living in the jungle immensely and found the challenges posed by the environment (weather, terrain, animals, insects, etc.) really fascinating," he says. "I read some articles about tribes in New Guinea who are believed by some to practice cannibalism and headhunting in places for which there aren't even any maps. The idea of visiting a place where few, if any, foreigners have ever stepped foot was irresistible. The idea of a face-to-face encounter with a possible cannibal was too good to be true. A trip like this would be the adventure of a lifetime." Matthew, hooked on the idea, began researching Irian Jaya and its people. He learned the native language, Bahasa Indonesia. The first sentence he committed to memory was, "Tolong ambil teman saya duluh," he recalls, which means "please take my friend first." "Luckily," he jokes, "I never had to use this line!"
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-17-03, 12:52 PM (EST)
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100. "RE: Let's not get too comfortable" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-17-03 AT 02:50 PM (EST)He’s playing a part, and either playing it so well he’s fooling MB as well or, has played it so well MB decided that Matt’s clueless character is the perfect fit for the story he wanted to tell in this Survivor. I lean towards the latter. I lean toward the latter too, Weasel. First, Matt doesn’t win immunity in Ep. 12...Jenna, desperate to stay around, convinces Rob that they should be the Final 2. This is an example of why I have trouble with Rob going in Ep 12. At that point, Rob and the misfits' plan has been succeeding. And if Matt is still there acting "clueless" and "creepy", wouldn't Rob by that time want Matt in F2 with him? Matt can still win IC's to the end, he's disliked, and he's still "obeying" Rob. It's perfect. WHY would Rob be convinced to go to F2 with Jenna at that point? He wouldn't NEED to backstab his new alliance. And Matt wouldn't have any reason to backstab Rob by that time either. He and Rob have been working well together, and if Matt truly knows the game, he might consider Rob to be HIS best F2 opponent, over Butch, Christy or Jenna, since Rob's been the most deceptive one in the bunch. Of course there are unknown factors that may come into play, but on the surface it just doesn't add up to me. Even if Matt has become closer to Butch than to Rob, and Jenna wins the Ep 12 IC, I think Christy would go at F5 under those circumstances. **Edited to add: Sorry, Weasel, I hope I didn't come off like I am bashing your speculation above, I didn't mean it that way. It's just that it seems to me that if Rob makes it to F5, he should have F2 wrapped up for himself, and without having to to do any more flip-flopping.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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04-17-03, 12:38 PM (EST)
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99. "Why Rob goes EP12..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-17-03 AT 12:45 PM (EST)
"My dilemma right now, on a very simplistic level, is this -- assuming ChillOne and Milkshaky are correct:
If Alex goes next (due to Rob and the misfits), I can see why Heidi would get booted in Ep 11. But I can't really see why Rob would get booted in Ep 12." BR, We have information that Christy is promised an alliance to the F2 and betrayed at F4...if Alex goes next, followed by Heidi, Jenna would be next in line at that point. It would make sense for her to make a promise to Christy to take her to the F2 in order to save herself. Rob is next in line if Christy lobbies to save Jenna (and Jenna would not be considered an immunity threat) If Jenna were to win Immunity at F4, she would be safe and have the opportunity to vote off Christy without the risk being targeted herself. Leading to the betrayal by her F2 alliance partner, as mentioned by Christy...
Krautboy
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-03, 08:20 PM (EST)
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105. "RE: Why Rob goes EP12..." |
Or... Matt wins that immunity, the vote is tied (Butch and Christy), Jenna changes her vote to Christy in order to avoid the purple rock (risk: lose one vote at final TC).
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Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-21-03, 02:03 PM (EST)
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109. "RE: Found the "Christy betrayed" post" |
Hmmm - Could Jenna somehow manage an immunity run? That would explain Rob going on the block in Ep. 12, Christy going 4th, and Butch going 3rd.
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-21-03, 03:41 PM (EST)
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110. "RE: Found the "Christy betrayed" post" |
>Hmmm - Could Jenna somehow manage an immunity run? My thoughts exactly. It would fit, though... - We've been shown that Butch and Matthew are allied, which would suggest that either of them would pick the other over Jenna in the final IC. For Jenna to be F2, the most likely way would be to win the final IC.
- MB loves irony, and the irony of her statement about not being able to win immunity challenges would really show through if she won a string of them. If the ChillOne F4 is to be believed, Jenna would be the most likely to make an F2 pledge to Christy to save her own skin, since her alliance is getting picked off one by one. She needs to get one of the "outcasts" on her side, and Christy is the most likely. After all, Christy knows that Matthew and Butch have been going off fishing together, so Jenna could convince her that an all-female final 2 is better for Christy than being the third wheel with the guys. And we again have more opportunity for irony, with Jenna's confessional comment about beating the boys. She ultimately turns on the other remaining female to save herself. Bebo says...919 beats 205 - I am your American Idol and the Baroness of Babedom.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-21-03, 04:14 PM (EST)
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111. "RE: Found the "Christy betrayed" post" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-03 AT 05:44 PM (EST)This spoiler, if believable, is obtuse enough that I could interpret it this way: 1) Deena told Christy that F3 would be the two of them plus Heidi or Jenna, I forget which one. 2) So Christy thought she was in an F3 pact. But then Heidi/Jenna voted against Deena, "betraying" the pact and leaving Christy out in the cold. I.e. the betrayal by an alliance partner is already done with. It does not have to happen at F4. 3) Christy's fate was eventually sealed when Matt, who everyone thought was creepy, went on an immunity run at the end. Matt would have been voted out at F4, but he won IC, and Christy got the boot instead.
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flyfly 5 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-03, 07:07 PM (EST)
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103. "RE: Matthew" |
Hey, VerucaSalt, are YOU Matt? 
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VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings
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04-18-03, 08:06 AM (EST)
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106. "RE: Matthew" |
If he won the show, I wish
If he didn't win the show, hell no
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