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"Is Alex Really Next?"
Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-23-03, 02:23 PM (EST)
 
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"Is Alex Really Next?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-03 AT 02:25 PM (EST)First of all, although I rarely post on the Spoilers board, I still lurk. I feel this is a topic we really haven't discussed. This is kind of a reflection on Dawg's thread. Thanks to ChillOne, we have an idea about what the Final 4 (or 6) looks like. So we're speculating on who's going to make it far. However, we really haven't looked at who's going THIS WEEK very much (as far as I could find). The general vibe I get from the board is that Alex MUST be the next bootee because he's in a minority, they voted off Shawna, etc. Let's look at the reason why Alex will be booted, shall we? 1. He's In The Minority -Yes, I'd have to agree with you on that point (4-2 vote). However, the one thing that could help him stay would be a change in personnel. Luckily, there is a probable merge this week (unless MB is messing with us again). Dynamics within a tribe change quite dramatically at the merge. -Remember S4. Kathy would have been gone if Maraamu went one more time (at the hands of Pappy/Neleh), but they merged, and had bigger fish to fry (Rotu 4, etc) -Remember Big Brother 2. Will and Shannon were going out while in the house. Shannon was promptly voted out (3rd, I think). However, as we all know, the strategies and targets changed after that, and Will won the 500K. How? Will realized that there were other threats out there and kind of sat back and watched it happen. -I'm just speculating here, but isn't it possible that Alex could allign with New Tambaqui (esp B/D/R/C)??? 2. Weight Loss Spoilers -Probably one of the stronger pieces of evidence out there. But what's the difference between 3 days on the show in terms of lost weight? If he doesn't go this week, maybe next week? Who knows? -Note: Remember that Jeanne did lose a significant amount of weight while on the show. 3. ChillOne -This is kind of a lame excuse, because all ChillOne said was a "well built man." That could Dave, Rob, Matt, or Alex. It certainly doesn't exclude Alex. 4. Dating Shawna -Many people have speculated that Alex and Shawna hooked up at the Loser Lounge. Well what did we see last week? Yep, that's right. Alex and Shawna being romantic. -So there's the possibility that Alex and Shawna became close on the show without even seeing each other at all at the Loser Lounge!!! I'm not saying that Alex is safe this week by any means. There's still a good chance he's gone. But, he's NOT our only opportunity in a boot. I just wanted to get some discussion about this week's boot going, so that Webby can make an informed decision when he makes his official prediction. What do you all think?  *puts on his flame-proof suit*
In Honor of Summary Writers...
1. "Daniel is the Mole!!!" -SurvivinDawg
2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott
3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI
4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki
5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir
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evanakm 250 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-23-03, 02:36 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Is Alex Really Next?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-03 AT 03:01 PM (EST)Good analysis, but I'll just play the devil's advocate on a couple points I'm just speculating here, but isn't it possible that Alex could allign with New Tambaqui (esp B/D/R/C)??? I don't know why everyone is assuming Christy has any allegiance to Butch. She hasn't said a word about an alliance with him, she voted against him and didn't feel guilty about it, and the guys have made no attempt to go to her about an alliance yet. It's classic misdirection based on assumptions. I think there is definitely a bond between them, but MB is just trying to make it look like a Rodger/Elisabeth bond. Luckily, there is a probable merge this week (unless MB is messing with us again). Dynamics within a tribe change quite dramatically at the merge. I'll agree that they do change dynamically, but this does not bode well for Alex. Matt just needs to say "he voted against me, he's not loyal to Tambaqui, and he is not loyal to what Dave tried to do at the swap." And Alex could be staring down the barrel of a potential 8-2 or 9-1 vote a la Clarence. ETA: Also, Alex's storyline seems to be coming to an end, as is usually the case for the seventh boot, the exception being Gretchen, but that was for shock value. Based solely on this reasoning, we can eliminate Butch, Christy, Jenna, and Matt, and it probably won't be Rob, Deena, or Heidi. Even though all three of them have storylines that could end in one episode, we have no indication from previews that they will be central to E7, plus other spoilers make those three even less likely. So that leaves Alex, Roger, and Dave for the next boot. All three of them are very likely candidates, and I'm going to hold off my choice for now.
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jessie 10 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-23-03, 09:35 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Is Alex Really Next?" |
1. He's In The Minority -Remember S4. Kathy would have been gone if Maraamu went one more time (at the hands of Pappy/Neleh), but they merged, and had bigger fish to fry (Rotu 4, etc) -I'm just speculating here, but isn't it possible that Alex could allign with New Tambaqui (esp B/D/R/C)??? First-merge-boot has traditionally been a physical threat in a minority alliance. Kathy wasn't a physical threat; Alex is. Alex *could* allign with BDRC, however, Roger wanted to get rid of the young and strong and that sure describes Alex. Alex isn't even playing the game. If he was, he'd have used his big head to vote off Shawna (who was going out, with or without his vote) and alligned with Rob and Matt, right off the bat - as they were going to Jaburu - to make a plan to peg off the girls. Rob and Matt were outsiders anyway, so that was should have been a done-deal. Failing that, he should have convinced lover-girl to get Jenna and Deena to vote off useless Rob. I'm sure that nobody would come up with a reason to keep Rob around. Sorry, I digress. Alex is minority in a major way (always has been) and is a physical threat. = Excellent merge episode candidate. 2. Weight Loss Spoilers -Probably one of the stronger pieces of evidence out there. But what's the difference between 3 days on the show in terms of lost weight? If he doesn't go this week, maybe next week? Agreed WL can't tell us the episode. Heidi may have lost the highest percentage of original body weight of anyone, yet she's not in the F4. NO weight-loss of Jenna has been reported. 3. ChillOne -This is kind of a lame excuse, because all ChillOne said was a "well built man." That could Dave, Rob, Matt, or Alex. It certainly doesn't exclude Alex. Yes, it certainly could include Alex. Gotta love that all-inclusive C1! ;) 4. Dating Shawna -Many people have speculated that Alex and Shawna hooked up at the Loser Lounge. Well what did we see last week? Yep, that's right. Alex and Shawna being romantic. Absolutely, and your previous Will/Shannon example shows that absence makes the heart grow fonder (or something... hehe)... and who was the BB guy that proposed marriage to someone who had been separated from him many episodes earlier? and, from evanakm
I don't know why everyone is assuming Christy has any allegiance to Butch. She hasn't said a word about an alliance with him, she voted against him and didn't feel guilty about it, and the guys have made no attempt to go to her about an alliance yet. It's classic misdirection based on assumptions. I think there is definitely a bond between them, but MB is just trying to make it look like a Rodger/Elisabeth bond. She is extremely happy with Butch and Roger. They treat her with respect. The girls only used her (once) when they needed her vote, and otherwise ignored her. She doesn't seem to have many "Survivor game plan" strategies going on, so I'm sure she would stay with Butch and Roger just out of pure comfort and enjoyment. And B/R would like to keep her because she shares their work ethic. She voted against Butch, I believe, after being on a tribe with him for one day. The girls had approached her to be in an alliance with them and the guys did not. For all she knew, her head would have been on the chopping block from the guys (or, hey, even Heidi-ho). She has no reason to feel guilty about it, but I don't think she would do it again now that she knows him better.
-----------------------------------------------
So, it comes down to our assumptions that A. there's a merge and B. that the alliances will be R/B/C/D and J/H/D/M/R. Now, figure out who wants to vote for whom. If you assume (as I do) that Roger may want to vote out Alex... then Alex obviously can't join them in voting... so it is still important to look at who Jenna's alliance would want off first. They may want Roger off. Deena is SO not going to put up with him. Rob and Alex hate him. With or without Alex's help (and of course he would be more than willing to help...), there *could* be more votes against Roger. Hmmm...
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-23-03, 03:39 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Is Alex Really Next?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-23-03 AT 03:54 PM (EST)This is kind of a reflection on Dawg's thread. Always a thought-provoking thing to do. (I'm SUCH a shameless DAW...) Okay, I'm thinking that Alex will go next, although it is by NO means nearly as certain as it seemed to be before. Let's examine it more closely, shall we? (WHERE have I heard this phrase before, and before that?  ) 1) Alliances: We've seen that on New Jabaru, Alex is in the distinct minority, having no support from anyone (that I can tell). As to New Tambaqui, Alex was with Roger/Dave/Butch (a tight group), but not really IN their alliance. Isn't Alex the one who argued with Roger over a, shall we say, political issue? Remember that the losing Tambaqui group (the "Daniel" group) tried to sway Alex. Therefore, Alex is apparently regarded as a free agent, not tight with anyone. This means that in the upcoming post-merge game, Alex will be very vulnerable. Remember that the first post-merge boot is usually someone that everyone can agree on. In S-2, Varner was chosen only because of his tie-breaking extra votes, a fact that Ogakor ruthlessly capitalized upon. In S-3, Clarence was waxed as both an untrustworthy person and an immunity threat. Everyone could agree on him. In S-4, The RobFather was eliminated by a large group vote (Sean joined Rob in voting for John, Kathy voted for Zoe). In S-5, we had the non-merge situation, resulting in the unintended consequences of a more brutal than normal pagonging of Sook Jai. So Alex more than almost anyone else, could be agreed upon by everyone. The only other persons in this category, IMHO, are Rob and Roger. 2) Romancing Shawna: Spoiler info has been all over this. This upcoming episode 7 is the last one to fill a non-jury slot. While it's possible Alex may be on the jury, and may pick up the relationship with Shawna after they get back home, the suggestion is that they do spend time in Loser Lodge together. If Alex is "distraught" over Shawna leaving (as CBS misdirection attempts to tell us), others may pick up on that and have even more of an excuse to vote for him, a mercy boot, so to speak. Or he might quit and/or ask them to vote him out... but this is less likely. 3) SNewser. His scorecard suggests that Alex is a thumbs-down while Dave, Deena, Roger, and Jenna are neutral (and the rest are thumbs-up for longer play). This isn't saying Alex goes next, but if he's on SNewser's list... Now, to support your side: 1) Roger is probably more unpopular. By rights, he should be next. Therefore the "mercy boot"/quit dynamic would be the main counterweight that would have Alex going. But I won't be surprised if it IS Roger. 2) So many spoilers this season have been inaccurate to the point that I don't know what info to really trust anymore.
To sum up: You bring up good points, and I'm going to start thinking more of Roger. But we must figure that Alex is the likely suspect.
  
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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03-23-03, 05:58 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: New CBS Roger-is-bossy promo" |
>Roger
>is bossy.
>
>That could mean:
>1. Roger is safe
>2. Roger is being set up
>for a boot in the
>near futureThis is what I think too, forehead. And Alex is shown in that preview which falls in line perfectly with the OFG theory. The only thing that gives me pause about an Alex boot this week is this: In Survivor Africa, there was a spoiler that Carl and T-Bird went on Safari together. Since Carl was an early boot, everyone thought that T-Bird HAD to miss the jury. So the merge comes, and we all thought T-Bird would be #10. Lo and behold, she wins immunity! Turns out Carl and T-Bird and others went on Safari after the entire game was over. There appears to be more evidence in this case for an Alex boot. Hey KillerDanaH! We could you your sleuthing skills right now. We want confirmation that Alex and Shawna were at loser lodge. What can you tell us?  
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sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-23-03, 07:35 PM (EST)
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7. "editing- lots of holes and missing pieces" |
-rob and deena have made some backroom deals. however, we know that strategies revealed to us usually fail. and we have seen rob working his deaals like a used car salesman in a polyester suit. i think rob's time will come quickly after the merge.
-deena and jenna are playing the game hard. previously they saw shawna check-out of the group and then they saw her regain interest when the boys arrived. shawna was a liabilty, plain and simple. she had to go and they were happy to get rid of her. after all, i think they realize that matthew is somewhat of a free agent. they can replace her spot in the alliance with him. i think that matthew is the key. matthew was the odd man out with the guys. at the swap he gets a new chance. he finds himself with a new leader - deena.
-heidi had no alliance to jeanne. she only had an alliance to the other girls. i really think that she sacrificed jeanne -without consulting with christy - to convince the men that the girls were not in an "all the girls " alliance. heidi is burning both ends of the candle. her time is coming. however, i have no doubt that she and jenna had discussed the possibilty of being separated at a swap and had come up with a "just in case" plan.
-dave is over planning. i think he is forgetting that people, unlike rockets, are thinking things that don't simply fall into line with a plan. he thinks he's in control, but i think he's just a lost little boy.
-butch is, IMHO questioning whether or not he has made the right alliances with people. i would bet that he will be open to forming a new alliance or making modifications on any existing alliance.
-roger is bossy. and we all know where that get syou in survivor land. some might even say that his acceptance of christy is a bit of character redemption and we all know what happens when you are redeemed on survivor.
-christy is in an alliance with the girls - loosely, but she's there. however, i think she is really considering forming an alliance with butch and possibly roger. she feels accepted by them. she might end up being a swing vote and/or the bridge between the men and the women.
-alex seemed to really bond with shawna. she is gone and he may as well follow. short of him now hooking up with one of the other girls i just don't think that there could be much more to his story line. alex has got to go soon. he's taking up valuable space on the editing room floor. (and if he gets booted now, mb can save money 'cause you know he and shawna will share a room at ll.)i KNOW that there are A LOT of holes in my thinking. i just think that editing points to alex going sooner rather than later.  (thinks she see's jims02 having convulsions due to OT withdrawals.)
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-23-03, 08:16 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: editing- lots of holes and missing pieces" |
>(thinks she see's jims02 having convulsions due to OT withdrawals.) It's really weird. I actually feel LESS inclined to post lately at SB. I'm not sure why. Prolly because OT was the first place I usually check for posts... Anyhoo... I think we have the following scenario: Wildcards: Rob, Alex, Matt -Rob probably is going into the Deena/Jenna column too. Known alliances: Deena/Jenna
+Heidi (unless she wants to be part of Dave's "plan")
+Christy (unless she's bonded with Butch) Butch/Roger/Dave Of course then there's the possibility that D/J/H/C joins with B/R/D. This would make perfect sense, since Heidi has made deals with Dave already. In my mind, that leaves 2 possible boots: Alex and Matt Just speculation though.
In Honor of Summary Writers...
1. "Daniel is the Mole!!!" -SurvivinDawg
2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott
3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI
4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki (Heidi/Jen)
5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir
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Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-24-03, 09:11 AM (EST)
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10. "WHO IS THE PUPPET MASTER?" |
I think this is the question at new Jaburu - is Rob the Richard Hatch that he thinks he is? Or is Deena in charge? And who would each of these new "leaders" want to boot post merge? Jenna and Matt are followers, not leaders. And they aren't hungry players. They'll do what they're told. Would Rob and Deena agree on a boot choice? I think Rob wants Roger out more than Alex. Alex could easily be folded back into an alliance, now that the ... distraction is gone - Roger is bossy, unlikeable, and tight in his own alliance. Who would Deena want to see go? Strategically, it makes more sense to attack a strong member of the opposing alliance, than to wax a possible wild card vote. And Alex is likeable, Roger, not so much. What about Tambaqui? We're assuming Hiedi will jump ship to join back up with Jenna - but we've seen, she's ready to go against her own alliance if it's good for her. Hiedi is hungry to win. Christy is a pure follower. The strong alliance here is D/R/B. I can see why many think Alex goes this week - but I wouldn't count out Roger as a possibility. It will be a hard choice this week!
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Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-24-03, 11:02 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: WHO IS THE PUPPET MASTER?" |
Excellent point dawg - I forgot about the ever important immunity! This makes perfect sense.
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Thaibeach 872 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent"
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03-24-03, 11:58 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: WHO IS THE PUPPET MASTER?" |
I'm thinking along a slightly different line here. Snewser's last 2 "odd" picks have got me thinking. Forgetting about "Alex & Shawna in luv @ Loser Lodge" for a moment:Assuming there is a merge, and it's not a fake, there are two probable groups, with 2 "unpredictables" not belonging firmly to either group... Deena, Jenna, Rob (and probably Heidi) Roger, Butch, Dave, Christy Matt and Alex are the unpredictables. It's considered likely that Matt will lean towards D/J/R/H. CBS is trying to mislead us into thinking it's Roger's week to go, but Dawg is correct that many times the person in the Episode X negative spotlight, doesn't actually get the boot until Episode X+1 or X+2. And Roger apparently does win the IC. Instead, I think that DJRH, and M if he joins them, will target Alex, or possibly Dave.
I can't see Alex being "distraught" over Shawna's boot, but he may very well be resentful, and return to RBDC. Matt, on the other hand, is so out there that HE could be the one who's "distraught" over Shawna, in which case he joins Alex to vote with RBDC. Who knows what lurks in the mind of Creepy Skull Guy? I'm thinking a repeat of S4 where the "nice guys" and underdogs got together to boot the first of the Evil Rotu 4 (John Carroll). In S6, Rob is in a similar position. Rob thinks he's in control of the game, and he's very sure he's smarter than anyone else in it. I'm hoping Alex isn't as clueless as I fear he actually is, and he'll point out to RBDC(&M?) that ROB has become quite the alliance-shifting backstabber. Unless Roger's sexism rules the day, and they go after one of the women, I'm betting on vindictive Rob as their target. We could end up with a 6-4 vote against Rob. Do I really think this WILL happen? No. We're likely to see Alex go this week, and Roger next. But Snewser's picks have been so unexpected, and so darned accurate, the last few weeks, that it's got me considering boots other than the obvious. I would love to see Rob fall on his face earlier than he ever expected. But I'll probably end up voting for Alex to go. C'mon and rip this all to shreds!
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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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03-24-03, 05:02 PM (EST)
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23. "We forget the MOST obvisious" |
Everyone is targeted in on Alex or if not Alex than maybe Roger or Dave but the most obvisious boot is a female since the males are up 6 to 4 and in past survivors it would now be pagong time. Why are we so sure this will not happen here? The guys had said at switch time that they will depart temporarily and when merge happens unite. If you look at what happen so far after the switch the guys did there part am knocked off two females. Why is everyone so sure that the male alliance is done? I am being devils advocate.
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Cathy the Canadian 599 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-24-03, 08:39 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: We forget the MOST obvisious" |
Because spoilers that put Jenna and Christy in the final four go against a woman pagonging.And because Rob knows he's low down on the chain of command in the male alliance, and probably won't make final four this way. And because Roger is unlikeable, and growing more annoying by the day. And because the women take their clothes off next episode. Maybe more to come if kept around? And because Butch likes Christy - probably more than Alex or Matt at this point. Having said all that, I do think Deena may be a target this episode. Revealed alliances don't succeed (Rob and Deena). And we have her saying "the guys are going to get a surprise" - which would be ironic if SHE got the surprise, and we also have her saying "they think we're soooo stupid", which would be ironic if they did turn out to be stupid/duped. Does that fit your irony theory dawg?
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-25-03, 06:12 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: We forget the MOST obvisious" |
Cathy,
I think there's plenty about Deena to fit the irony category. She proclaimed herself the Alpha-female, she thinks she's playing the game soooo well, etc., as well as the things you suggest. So yes, this could easily fit into the "theory."Also, when I suggested to start watching for irony, I meant it less as a theory and more as a spoiling tool to help us figure out what might be going on.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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TomPasmore 3 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-26-03, 07:57 AM (EST)
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40. "Rob could be the swing." |
This is basically what Rob predicted.It's four on four, guys vs. girls. So even if the males do reunite, Rob is gonna turn coat. We have a pretty good sense of who is safe... jeena, christy, heidi (look at my fake boobs), Roger (he is in the promo) and (based on my sources, Rob sticks around for a while longer. So the suspects are...
-Deena... but she is very helpful.
-Butch... but if they are setting Roger for a later boot, he would be the old man in the final four.
The most likely are,
-Alex, Matt, and Dave. Who has no weight loss strand, no rumor in later rounds and is going ALMOST CERTAINLY ;) hook up with someone in loser lodge... There is your BOOTIE. (that is just one man's opinion. What could be really curious is how the vote actually goes. Will rob organize the troops again and make it a two party vote. Or could we get the rare three way split.
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-24-03, 02:52 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Shawna and Alex" |
>I really think the Shawna and
>Alex dating spoiler is useless
>now.
>
I have to respectfully disagree with you on that. Its not determinative, but it is hardly useless. Alex and Shawna get to develop their relationship somewhere. Since episode 7's bootee is the last one to go to Loser Lodge and since Shawna is already at Loser Lodge, Alex getting to go to loser lodge and developing a relationship with Shawna at the lodge is a logical. It is not definately true, but it does make sense and it is a piece of evidence that supports the argument that Alex goes next. We just need to look at all the pieces of evidence before making a decision
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Jims02 7407 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-24-03, 03:43 PM (EST)
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20. "Rob & Christy Are The Keys" |
However, we may have to look at the editing pattern too, for Christy's alliance.Last week, she made references to how accepted and happy she feels with Butch & Roger. This may actually be a "prep" for us, preparing us if she happens to switch. We have two possible groups then. B/R/D/C (4) New Tambaqui Alliance or D/J/H/C (4) Women's Alliance Now, add Rob. Scenario 1: B/R/D/C vs D/J/H/Rob Now, we were graced with Rob's comment last week about keeping Matt as long as possible. I think the merge may be a CRUCIAL situation where Rob needs an extra vote to tip the scales. B/R/D/C vs D/J/H/R/M 5 to 4... With Alex left over. That could lead to:
1. A 9-1 boot of Alex (dumb move for B/R/D/C)
2. Forced tie
3. A Dave (or someone else?) boot 6-4 Scenario 2: Christy joins women B/D/R vs D/J/H/C/R/M In this case, it doesn't matter where Alex falls, because Deena's already got 6. Looks good for Deena's alliance this week, but you never know...
In Honor of Summary Writers...
1. "Daniel is the Mole!!!" -SurvivinDawg
2. "Look Jeanne, a fish! EEEEEEEK!" -survivorscott
3. "Survivor is turning into Playboy At The Rainforest" -AMAI
4. "Eat a sandwich and contemplate how shallow you are" -dajaki (Heidi/Jen)
5. "She’s deaf! She’s deaf! Oh God, the humanity, she’s deaf!" -TechNoir
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-24-03, 04:58 PM (EST)
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22. "Occam's Razor" |
Occam's Razor
Occam's Razor
Occam's Razor (say it with me now!)
Occam's RazorThe simplest solution. There's a merge, there's less than three days to sort everything out. Almost ALWAYS there is a big group hitting a small target. S-2: Okagor won the big tiebreak, as fierce tribal loyalties won out and Kucha was pagonged. Since then, MB has mixed-and-matched, to avoid pagonging... S-3: Swap, and after merge Clarence, then Brandon voted out by everyone (except Ubergut on Brandon).
S-4: Swap, then after merge Boston Rob targeted by large majority. Zoe in the next round, too. S-5: was the Non-Merge after no swap. Unintended consequences of worse pagonging than ever. S-6: ? Large group focuses on small target? If natural (or is that au natural? ) target Roger wins immunity, then look for lots of folks to agree on Alex.
Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-24-03, 10:02 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Occam's Razor" |
The thing that struck me was the editing of the promos. It *really* smells like typical MB editing to me to spend the entire episode talking about Roger -- how bossy he is, how much everyone really wants him gone, he's a choice they can all agree on -- to edit him as someone in serious trouble, only to have him win Immunity.Which would leave the typical first-post-merge boot -- alpha male, challenge threat: Varner (after the tie vote with Colby), Clarence, the RobFather, and Ken. Gretchen in S1 was the exception, although there is some argument that she was the equivalent of an alpha male on Pagong, and she was certainly the biggest threat to Dique. Who fits that description? Rob? He's not an alpha, he's the goofball (who typically lasts until the jury). Butch or Roger? Too old to fit. Matthew? He's a big guy, certainly, but he's shown he's much more of the silent follower type. I really haven't seen him take charge of much of anything besides fish (which he is good at, and cooks, and you don't vote off the best food gatherer/cook without some serious motivation to do so) or make waves. Which leaves Dave and Alex -- who are, I think, two very probable boots for the next two shows, especially given their lack of weight loss spoilers. Given the choice between the two, I think somone (Deena?) is going to recognize that Alex is a wild card, while at least they KNOW that Dave is allied with B/Rog (he's safely in a box where we can get him anytime we want). B/Rog and maybe Christy are not going to be willing to vote off Dave first thing, but I think they would see the logic in getting rid of Alex. I could even see the vote going unanimously. Then, that would leave Dave/B/Rog (and maybe Christy) versus Denna/Rob/M/J/H. But even if Christy *doesn't* vote for Dave, the other alliance has the numbers to vote him off anyway. At that point, I see alliances shifting, but not sure exactly how just yet.  
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NorthOfBoston 158 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-24-03, 08:22 PM (EST)
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26. "Once a Jabaru, always a Jabaru" |
I think there are a lot of valid and interesting points here, especially about Christy being the wildcard and the least likely to stay with the all-female alliance. However, I'm assuming all of these players have watched Survivor in the past. They know that NUMBERS are the key. PRE-twist/switch numbers that is. With the exception of the Robfather incident (where one original tribe # severely dominated the other, thus making original tribe alliance futile), people don't forget so easily. You're much more likely to have faith in someone who was your alliance upon arrival on Day One than someone who has "switched" over to you later on in the game. Long term alliances of past: Elisabeth/Rodger, Tina/Keith/Colby, Ethan/Lex (/MamaKim/Tom), Neleh/Paschal, Brian/Helen (well, a pathetic one-way there)... they are the ones that ride it out and usually pay off. Butch may be Christy's pal right now, but she's smart (and she IS smart) to stick with the women, at least until the gender NUMBERS thing has been balanced. If she stays UTR for now, she can roll that log back to B/R/D (as long as Roger is still there) in a few episodes. Rob, I agree, has no choice right now but to align with the women. And he is the last one to be termed a "well-built man" or whatever the C1 spoiler was. I mean, he's certainly not fat, but he's the only one with any "reserve" belly left (per log rolling shots). ALSO! It was mentioned above that usually the first post-merge boot is an all-tribe agreed upon member. I disagree. Yes, Jeff (S2) was a default choice. But S3 Clarence was a threat. S4 Rob was too shady, too much of a wheeler-dealer (threat). On the last Survivor, Ken was a physical threat, and Penny was another Rob. You boot people pre-merge because they are weak. You boot people post-merge because they are strong. Roger is annoying, but he's a man's man's man (of course, not in the man's man-on-man sense, as we've heard) and is needed to keep the Man-numbers (for now). He is not an immunity threat and will be tolerated until he is no longer useful for the others to get ahead (ala Jerri). Threats: Matt (Rob has mentioned this in the past, but he will protect him if it means it will help his numbers)
Dave (but he's a charmer, particularly to the boobie twosome)
Deena (but will probably be protected for now by H/J/C/R)
Alex (and yet mentally weakened from machete chop to the frontal lobe...hmmmm sounds like the dinner bell tolls for you, pal!)
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Totally unrelated rambling: I went to the movies at a Showcase Cinema complex this weekend and have discovered that their pre-film "No smoking/no talking/no cellphones" PSA blurb now features an all-Survivor cast using old TC shots. Kind of scary since I thought I'd escaped the skinny-hairy Lex (and Greg's coconut telephone) for good
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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-03, 05:34 PM (EST)
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33. "Who are the targets" |
For the first post-merge boot, people are going to be playing their cards very closely. That's why we've had things go along tribal lines (S1, S2) and "obvious agreed-upon" targets (Clarence, Rob). The dominant alliance - or any alliance that thinks it could end up the dominant alliance - is going to want to target someone with as little manipulation as possible, to avoid showing their strategy too early. So, who would be the easiest to target?Individual IC threats - Alex, Dave, and Matthew are the more dominant men, Deena the biggest threat among the women. Gender - The men could go after any woman to keep the numerical advantage, so Deena, Jenna, Heidi, and Christy end up on the list here. Now, looking at each of them one by one, what risk is there to targeting each? Alex: Alex did not vote with the rest of NewJ, so there's no alliances there at risk. Christy has no loyalties to him, since they've never been in a tribe together. Dave, Roger, and Butch were expecting Alex to be part of their all-male final 6. However, the men have a 5-4 numerical advantage, and once they hear of Alex's targeting of Matthew at the last TC, they won't trust him to vote with them all the way through. They would also recognize the logic of getting rid of an IC threat. He is at HIGH risk of being targeted. Christy: Loosest ties to the rest of the women, so could be possible to convince the women to vote against her. Alex, Matthew, and Rob have never been in a tribe with her, so they have no loyalty to her. Dave would have targeted her last ep if Tambaqui went to TC. However, Roger and Butch would want her to stay. There are a lot of riskier individual IC threats, but she did show a lot of determination during the last RC. Risk of being targeted: MEDIUM to HIGH. Dave: Rob has expressed displeasure at Dave's shipping him off to NewJ, so he may be willing to cast his vote now for Dave. Jenna and Deena would be willing to target a male IC threat. However, it's doubtful that Roger and Butch would be easy to convince, since he has always been a part of their tribe and has voted with them every time after TC1. Christy may also be difficult to convince, since that would put her at a numerical advantage both gender-wise and switched-tribe wise. Heidi has a loose alliance with Dave and could also be difficult. Risk of being targeted: MEDIUM. Matthew: Alex already has targeted him. Christy and Heidi have no loyalty to him, so they could be convinced. However, the only reason that Dave, Roger, or Butch would target Matthew before Alex is if Alex is immune - Matthew has not betrayed them. New J has already resisted Alex's targeting of Matthew once. Risk: MEDIUM to LOW. Deena: Neither Heidi nor Jenna would target Deena. Rob would be trying to hide his alliance with her and would try to present an obvious target as protection. Since one is available (Alex), I put her at LOW risk of being targeted. Jenna: See above. Since Rob knows Deena would not vote for Jenna, he won't target her either. LOW risk. Heidi: Would not be targeted by Jenna or Deena. Rob would not target out of loyalty to alliance to Deena. Dave, Butch, and Roger would try and target a woman from New J before turning on a member of their switched tribe, since they have no loyalties to Deena or Jenna. Why didn't I put Roger on the list? Because at this point being disliked is not a negative. For contestants looking at the end game, he could be worth keeping around, since it could be quite advantageous to go against him in the final 2. There are stronger men who are greater IC risks that would be much bigger targets at this point. So, I think Alex and Christy are at the greatest risk. But since our merged tribe will only have a day or two at most to strategize on who to get rid of, and people will want to show as little about their alliances as possible, the easiest target would be Alex. He's an immunity threat, and his only remaining alliance - to the three always-Tambaqui men - can easily be severed by telling them about his targeting of Matthew.  A Bebodacious American
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Wacko Jacko 2438 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-03, 05:49 PM (EST)
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34. "Targets" |
Disagree about Christy she is save as one can be. The women are at a minority now. I think both Deena and heidi are at bigger risk right now that Christy. you forget too that when Shawna went 'bad' who did the women recruit to replace her Christy. Dave, Butch and Roger will not vote for her and neither will the women so that leaves Alex, Matt and Rob. but what reasons do they have. Christy is very safe.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-03, 06:28 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Who are the targets" |
One thing I wonder is: would Butch/Roger/Dave really be that upset about Alex's vote for Matthew, enough to want to ditch Alex now? Matthew was the next likely target on all-male Tambaqui, and would be the first to go in an all-male final 6. And the other guys might not even want him to get that far, lest he go on a late immunity run and squelch an opportunity to get rid of him. Alex didn't vote with the women, so it's not like he switched to a new alliance. And Rob said that he had a semi-alliance with Alex coming into Jaburu. Rob seems to feel more negativity toward Roger and Dave than Alex. Unless he feels that he has replaced Alex with Matt so Alex is now disposable, it doesn't seem like he has a reason to target Alex yet. Interesting week. An Alex boot almost has to be because the REAL target wins immunity, and Alex is the second-best choice. Since there is some suggestion that Roger wins IC, this could pan out. On the other hand, I'm not entirely convinced that Roger DOES win IC, which to me means he is the most likely boot. Decisions, decisions...
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prn 5 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-03, 06:24 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Who are the targets" |
I’m a newbie… so if this is in the wrong place, sorry.Just two thoughts that come to mind: 1. One of the spoilers said that one of the woman starts to look good to the men. And they never gave her a second look before. No one mentioned the possibility that it could be Christy. If it were her, she would be safe for a while. Supposedly she does go a long way in the game.
2. There is no real Richard emerging from Amazon, but if there is one, and he/she is deep undercover, Roger would make an excellent Rudy. And if Roger=Rudy, he could go far because he is being protected by someone. It’s just an idea. Personally, I’m not 100% about the next boot, but I am leaning to Alex / Matt boot. They lack foundation to stand on, unless they become really fast builders. Or other people screw up, i.e. rob or dave.
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jennk 18 desperate attention whore postings
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03-26-03, 05:58 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Is Alex Really Next?" |
I think there are remarkable similarities between the situation this time and two weeks ago. So, I tend to think that Deena will go. I'm really surprised more people don't think so.The men could easily reunite and vote her out. She's the alpha female and based on what happened with Jeanne I think that makes her a big target for the males. Also, while she was a member of the boobie alliance.. remember, these girls are pretty shallow and I didn't get the impression they included her because they liked her, they did it for the numbers. (She wasn't included in the pretty/young girls bathing rituals.. just the alliance). I think H/J could easily be persuaded to vote her out... I'm not sure she got along well with C either. Just like with Jeanne, Dave probably realizes this because of Jenna's big mouth. Anyway, that's my theory and I'm sticking to it.. I'm surprised so few people see this happening though.
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