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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Woops, I'm out of habit, almost forgot about writing this up (well... not that there's really much to write-up )

Prediction Logic

This week's prediction logic is brought to you by "guest predictor" Krautboy (ya, some of you might have heard of him... ) Kraut's explanation follows below, but the bottom line can be summed up in one acronym:

M.I.A.

...basically he's missing from some of the challenge vidcaps. Full analysis follows:

THE CHILLONE SPOILER:

The ChillOne Spoiler was the basis for much of our early speculation, and initially led us to focus on Daniel as the prime early boot candidate. The ChillOne listed his pecking order for the first four boots:

“Daniel, 26 (Asian)”
“Brian, 22”
“Joanna (African American), strong build”
“Another lady, around 30”

We have since concluded that “Brian” is Ryan, and recently have been speculating that Janet may be the contestant described as “Another lady, around 30”.

WEIGHT LOSS:

There are no weight loss reports, or other evidence of longevity, for any of these four primary early boot candidates.

VIDCAP ANALYSIS:

The vidcap chronology of the first three days, and clothing analysis, shows us that only one challenge takes place during EP1: a four-part obstacle course IC, called “Unchained”…

But, vidcap analysis has already provided glimpses of three different challenges:

“Unchained” IC from EP1
“Where’s Ryan?”, showing a pre-challenge huddle.
“Where’s Janet?” series, showing the two tribes arriving at a challenge.

Therefore, the “Where’s Ryan?” and “Where’s Janet?” challenges must take place sometime during EP2 / EP3.

Daniel is present at all three challenges, as are all the men, with the exception of Ryan. So, we can conclude that Ryan is the only member of the Tambaqui tribe in danger of being booted in EP1.

Joanna is present at an EP2 challenge, as are all the women, with the exception of Janet. So, we can conclude that Janet is the only member of the Jamburi tribe in danger of being booted in EP1.

It all comes down to which tribe wins immunity in EP1. If the men win Janet is gone; if the women win Ryan is gone.

EP1 IMMUNITY CHALLENGE:

The ChillOne Spoiler states, “Women dominate the challenges at first, winning the first two. This causes great tension amongst the men.”

We also have the TV Guide article with MB’s comments about his “gender experiment”. MB obviously did not want the men to dominate the first challenge:

“As the race starts, the crew that's clustered at the finish line quietly roots for "the girls" to kick butt. Nearby, Probst waits ready to hand the victorious tribe a humanoid figure with a monkey's face - this season's immunity idol.
Watching from the sidelines, Burnett beams from ear to ear, clearly pleased that his gender experiment seems to be working: "Could it get any better than this?"”

His comment, “Could it get any better than this?”, suggests that the women are, at a minimum, competitive, and more than likely pull off an upset.

In support, we have this vidcap of the women apparently celebrating after the Immunity Challenge: here

And this vidcap of the men appearing dejected after the Immunity Challenge: here

And finally this vidcap showing the Immunity Idol in the women’s camp, probably after the EP2 “storms”… Heidi is pictured for the first time wearing her rain hat: here

So, while the evidence of an Immunity Challenge victory may be circumstantial, every bit of it points to the Jamburi women defeating the men.

Therefore, we can only conclude that Ryan is destined to be the first survivor voted out of the tribe…

Immunity Winner

JABURU

Reward Winner

Well... like the past couple of Survivor editions, this edition probably doesn't feature a reward prize to the winner of the episode's single challenge, so consider this category "N/A"

Bootee

Ryan