Email this topic to a friend Printer-friendly version of this topic Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)		Archived thread - Read only  Previous Topic | Next Topic
Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Original message

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 01-06-03, 03:38 AM (EST) "Early Boot Profile" Mark Burnett has a formula for selecting the cast members for Survivor, from which he has not deviated in 5 seasons. It includes: 16 Contestants representing a cross section of America. 8 men and 8 women Average age of the 16 contestants is 35 years old. 16 distinct personality types represented In an effort to determine who the first bootie will be in S6, let’s look at the past “early bootees” to arrive at an “early boot profile”. The following list is the first three from each of the previous seasons: S1 Sonya, 63, Teacher/Musician, Tagi BB, 64, Contractor/Developer, Pagong Stacey, 27, Attorney, Tagi S2 Debb, 45, Corrections Officer, Kucha Kel, 32, Army Officer, Ogakor Mad Dog, 52, Ret. Police Officer, Ogakor S3 Diane, 42, US Postal Carrier, Boran Jesse, 27, Deputy Sheriff, Boran Carl, 46, Dentist, Rotu S4 Peter, 45, Business Owner, Maraamu Patricia, 49, Truck Assembler, Maraamu Hunter, 33, Pilot, Maraamu S5 John, 40, Pastor, Chuay Gahn Tanya, 27, Social Worker, Chuay Gahn Jed, 25, Dental Student, Sook Jai Observations: In every previous Survivor Series the first person voted out has been over 40 years old. Looking at the first three episodes of each of the first 5 Survivor Series, an equal number of men and women have been voted out. The average age of the first person voted off is 47 years old. The average age of the first three people voted off is 41 years old. Early bootees are often “authority figures” with occupations such as, Police officer, Army Officer, Pastor, Dentist, Attorney, Corrections Officer, Etc. They often have overbearing personalities, and are frequently described as “bossy” or “pushy”. They are unable to stay under the radar. They may be viewed as a physical liability, due to illness or physical strength. They are sometimes viewed as loners who are unable or unwilling to “fit in”. Early Boot Profile: The average early boot candidate is just as likely to be male or female. They are more likely to be older than the tribe average of 35, than younger. The early boot is likely to be between 40 and 50 years of age. They will usually not “fit in”, either because they are too pushy and controlling or viewed as “lazy loners”. The overbearing types often hold positions of authority in their real life profession. They are often also considered a physical liability because of illness or poor fitness. While most of this is obvious, I thought it might help to do an objective analysis before we are influenced by our impressions of the real S6 contestants… Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Early Boot Profile Q 01-06-03 1    RE: Early Boot Profile jkokoj 01-06-03 3  RE: Early Boot Profile SurvivinDawg 01-06-03 2    SurvivorSibling Spoiler Krautboy 01-06-03 4        RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler VerucaSalt 01-06-03 5            RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler smrtNsassybnkr 01-06-03 6                RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler ivoryElephant 01-07-03 7                    RE: SurvivorSibling is a hoaxer tribephyl 01-07-03 8                        RE: SurvivorSibling is a hoaxer PepeLePew13 01-07-03 9                            RE: SurvivorSibling is a hoaxer VerucaSalt 01-07-03 10                    RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler Q 01-07-03 11                        RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler Brownroach 01-08-03 12        RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler dabo 01-13-03 17    Strong Young Male? Krautboy 01-12-03 13        RE: Strong Young Male? VerucaSalt 01-12-03 14            RE: Strong Young Male? Loree 01-12-03 15            Boot List VerucaSalt 01-12-03 16

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Messages in this topic

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 01-06-03, 09:48 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Early Boot Profile" Thanks Krautboy... Its always good to go back to the basics prior to each season as sort of a touchstone for spoiling. It reminds us of the early game moves most contestants try to make. Now we just have to see what this "amazing, wonderful, exciting" whole new beginning is. But as you point out, changing the team formation/beginning still does not "greatly" alter the voting strategy of the contestants. I look forward to your ideas on S6, as during S5 you had many insights. Later all   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 01-06-03, 10:06 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Early Boot Profile" Thanks KrautBoy. I second what Q said! It is good to have an analysis of a first boot prior to the actual contestant list coming out. It could narrow down the order prior to the first show.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-06-03, 10:02 AM (EST) 2. "RE: Early Boot Profile" LAST EDITED ON 01-06-03 AT 10:03 AM (EST) At the risk of saying "DUH!" I'll just add these points: 1) Two of the youngest, Jesse and Tanya, were booted mostly because they were sick. Likewise, Diane was also booted for her weak physical condition. 2) Whatever happened about the Stacey lawsuit? Haven't heard anything recently, but if her claim is true that the vote was fixed, then we should consider that Rudy was the choice but MB saved him... and this verifies Krautboy's point: Older guy, authority figure, etc. 3) While Kel does match the "authority figure" portion, he and Jed must be looked at in the mode that they clashed badly with other tribe members, and Jed in particular (IMHO) got the shaft. Now Kel was accused of cheating by bringing in beef jerky... and Jerri didn't just make up "beef jerky" in her head... (in other words, I am saying that yes, Kel DID cheat), so his waxing was evident. Let's recall some other scenarios, however: 1) Kathy (meets these criteria) was certainly targeted by Rotu early... but Rotu never made it to TC to boot her. Likewise, Paschal might have been an earlier target, due to age and physical condition... but again Rotu never made it to TC in the early going. 2) Keith in S2 was targeted early... but was saved by Tina and Colby who realized that keeping him and booting Mitchell was their only hope to win. 3) Kimmy didn't make overall top-3, but she was Kucha's second waxing... over Rodger or sick Nick. The "didn't get along" played more than the older or sick guys here. 4) Police officer Ken stayed around awhile, as did ex-Seal Rudy, Navy SpecOps instructor Helen and schoolteacher Jan. So to me, the important thing is social skills/interpersonal relations, coupled with getting into the right alliance early and maintaining good physical health (never show illness or weakness!). This is going off-topic to this thresd, but to me, the MOST important thing is tribal IC victories. Just imagine how different S-4 and S-5 might have been. Hence, we can only glean so much from the contestants' occupations. But it's as good a place as any to start. ...and Krautboy... just remember that SeeBS misdirection is called "misdirection" for a REASON... NEVER take the website at face value... Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 01-06-03, 12:28 PM (EST) 4. "SurvivorSibling Spoiler" Dawg: The "SurvivorSibling Spoiler" states that the first bootee will a young strong male, apparently in conflict with many aspects of the profile, but reinforcing your point that the interpersonal/ social skills are the single most important aspect of the "early boot profile". Here's an excerpt: ---------------------------------------------------------------- "My sibling gave me some information on the "bootees", but would not give me names or tell me if they were on his/her tribe or the other. The first person voted off is a young, strong man(late twenties/thirties). This man was very bossy around camp and tried to be a leader. This annoyed members on both teams and because there are more people in the "camp" to do the work, it wasn't as important to keep a young "alpha male" type around for the heavy work." ---------------------------------------------------------------- If this spoiler ends up being valid, our first bootee will be voted out because he was "very bossy around camp" and "annoyed members on both teams", not because of perceived weakness associated with age or illness... Just as you suggest, "not getting along" in the early going is the kiss of death... Krautboy   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 01-06-03, 01:36 PM (EST) 5. "RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler" If the SurSib poster is indeed valid which we will CERTAINLY know at Episode 1 because rarely does the young athletic man get booted first, UNLESS as posted above, he is downright obnoxious. This guy must really be horrific though and not just be obnoxious but pull a Debb/John thing because look how obnoxious Robb was yet he was a powerhouse for working and challenges so he was needed. But then again, which is worse a Robb or a Jed? You put the criteria as to who goes on the nose! Old, obnoxious/troublemaker, sick, lazy OR someone TARGETED either because they be a threat to someone who has a bigger mouth. The first boot is usually a gimme. However, opening up with perhaps two tribes on one living ground may change that as well due to cross tribe alliances possibly forming. Could you imagine say 3 people from each tribe forming a 6 person alliance and staking out who should go from each other's tribes? WOW!   Top

smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 01-06-03, 02:04 PM (EST) 6. "RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler" Veruca, Your point of a 6 person/cross tribal alliance would make S6 all the more worth watching. It certainly would put a spin on the show, AND we (hopefully) wouldn't see the pagonging as we have in other seasons. Not to mention it would be one of those GREAT publicity stunts that MB is always saying "everyone will be talking about for months". Might it actually be true this time?! Let's hope so!   Top

ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 01-07-03, 02:32 AM (EST) 7. "RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler" survivorsibling just admitted it was a hoax on sucks. Goes to show ya, never belive anything that comes from that place. "To the other three still out there, break a leg......and I mean it" - Helen Glover   Top

tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-07-03, 03:10 AM (EST) 8. "RE: SurvivorSibling is a hoaxer" I can't agree with you more, about the Sucks board. That place is practically falling apart at the seams. There's even a I hate MilkShakey String. They have an open forum for them to trash a Mod? How...barbaric?! I am so thankful for this board. This board has, without a doubt, the least amount of trash coming through it. With the nicest, funniest, most understanding and interesting Mods and general posters. Consider ourselves lucky. Also since it pertains to SurvSib, here is "their" latest post. I've posted three hoaxes to the board and I apologize. My initial post was a fake as were the threads about Randy Leer and Nicki McFarlane I started under different usernames. I thought it would get some activity going here and thought it would be fun to see how good of a job I could to with a hoax but now realize how stupid and immature it was.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-07-03, 07:02 AM (EST) 9. "RE: SurvivorSibling is a hoaxer" It's a board I haven't touched for nearly two years now. They were the last place I checked out before I found SBlows in March, 2001 -- and because of them, I didn't post for over a month expecting a blowup of some sorts or some doofuses making an ass of themselves, but to my amazement it didn't happen. There were actually some decent people here who thoughtfully discussed legit issues instead of making up crap. In other words, don't ever believe a word that comes out from that place -- yes, there's occasionally the good spoiler that pops up, but since there's so many bad ones it's hard to know which ones to take seriously. I'll stick to Snews and TDT.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 01-07-03, 07:42 AM (EST) 10. "RE: SurvivorSibling is a hoaxer" Which is why I will always preface anything I see from them as "take this with a grain of salt....." Back to topic. Regardless of SS non authentic post, dependent upon what the tribe situation is, it may or may not throw the usual suspects as first bootee right out the window. To this date, I can never fathom why a tribe would immediately get rid of someone who can help them live or win challenges aka John and even Jed but emotions rule this game over common sense a lot. If the tribes are indeed together but compete separate we may see a whole new first bootee as I posted above. I don't think we will really know the first to go until we know how the tribes are arranged. On a safe note though, the old, sick, weak in challenges, bitchy/bossy woman, old bossy man (who is surrounded by younger tribe) are probably best bets.   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 01-07-03, 12:06 PM (EST) 11. "RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler" I thought I was the only one. I found that site after this one, thank G-D, but did wander over from time to time. I was interested in all the infighting going on with Screerider and Paratrooper (I think, although not clear on it) and found that board to be very catty. I posted once there and did not enjoy the experience. The spoiling/speculation here is much more mature, thought out and well presented. I think everyone here is much better as people, and that leads to a better board. I'm glad someone is discussing this issue.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-08-03, 03:40 PM (EST) 12. "RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler" >>I found that site after this one, thank G-D, but did wander over from time to time.<< I wander over there too -- occasionally something of value gets posted, but there seems to be more and more dreck to wade through. As I'm writing this, 15 of the 25 threads on SS's first page are locked. I feel sorry for the moderators...   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-13-03, 01:55 AM (EST) 17. "RE: SurvivorSibling Spoiler" Will there be an MTV preshow this time? Last time, from what I saw, John was an obvious outsider (first boot). "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 01-12-03, 02:17 PM (EST) 13. "Strong Young Male?" According to The ChillOne's Spoiler, Daniel will be the first boot. I've been looking for evidence to explain how he might be the first to go and early indications are that he is not the "overbbearing pushy leader" type, but rather the "misfit, loner, outcast" type. The limited vidcaps we have so far show him in the background or off to the side, not looking very happy. If they lose the first challenge, somehow because of him, and he doesn't fit in, it's feasible that a tribe of all men would vote off a strong, young guy, that the other alpha males figure they don't need anyway. So, the discussion we've had about the Early Boot Profile as it related to the SurvivorSibling Spoiler still applies to the ChillOne Spoiler. Is it possible that they are both legitiamate, but Survivor Sibling was asked to retract it and lie about it being a hoax? Probably not, but I haven't had time to compare the two. Might make for an interesting comparison...Hmmm Krautboy   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 01-12-03, 03:20 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Strong Young Male?" I posted something similar on another thread here. Kraut, the alienating or obnoxious contentions for a young strong male being booted are the usual reasons and most plausible. The funny thing is I never reviewed the first boot scenario in the context of a same sex tribe. With that dynamic, I see yet another plausible reason for the buffest male going first. Small sample: Ken and Brian. Now, some may argue with me but their animosity, IMO, was nothing but testerone and ego. Two alpha males who wanted to be top dog. This wasn't the case with Robb and Ken because Robb was young, viewing Ken as a big brother and egos didn't have as much place there while Brian was king of his domain with young buff policeman Ken coming into his digs??? View an all male tribe. There is going to be a battle of the egos with someone, that I can almost guarantee. Daniel is clearly a physically imposing person. I would bet the farm that at least TWO men on that tribe are going to feel their testerone is threatened. Couple that with ANY potential feelings from Daniel that he is alienating or bossy, he is toast. Why not overlook this to keep the strong to win? Easy answer. They are competing against women. Like it or not and correct or not, men essentially are not going to worry about competing against women physically, they just aren't. So what do they care if they get rid of their strongest, they are still MEN competing against WOMEN! You know they are going to think that. Women posters don't get uppity, I am a woman but I'd be worried seeing an all male tribe. Men posters, don't deny it, you would be thrilled seeing an all women tribe and would think you are going to kick their butts. Will this occur? I'm sure there will be surprises for both but I think the thought process will be that. And I think that may be a new rationale as to why the young, strong male may go first also.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 01-12-03, 04:30 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Strong Young Male?" I agree this is why Daniel may be the first one out. Remember how Colby did not like Kel and was only too happy to believe Jerri's "jerky story" so he could get rid of him. And we can't forget Rob & Sean ganging up to kick out Hunter. Both Hunter and Kel were very strong. But the other strong males didn't want them around.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 01-12-03, 04:34 PM (EST) 16. "Boot List" LAST EDITED ON 01-13-03 AT 04:06 PM (EST) I'll put this here, so we can condense some things. Based on potential spoilers, weight loss, etc, NOT based on speculation so I did not put things like asset for challenges as a potential reason for staying, however, this can be added in after first episode. THE MEN 1. Wilbur Butch Lockley Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge - Chill Against Boot Reports of 31 lbs weight loss and no mustache that he has worn for years - per SS info and Lisa of VO Possibly one of final four - Chill 2. Ryan Aiken Reasons for Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge - Chill. Reasons Against Boot Second Booted off? - Chill 3. Roger Sexton Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge.-Chill Reasons Against Boot Possibly one of the Final 4. - Chill 4. Rob Cesternino Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge. Against Boot Possibly one of the Final 4 (2nd place?) - Chill 5. Matthew Von Ertfelda Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge. Reasons Against Boot None for now 6. Alex Bell Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge - Chill Reportedly is leader - TV Guide Reasons Against Boot Possibly one of the Final 4. -Chill Reportedly leader - TV Guide 7. Daniel Lue Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge - Chill Reportedly the first person voted off - Chill Reasons Against Boot None for now 8. Dave Johnson Reasons For Boot Men reportedly lose first challenge - Chill Reasons Against Boot Possibly one of final four - Chill THE WOMEN 1. Deena Bennett Reasons For Boot None to date Reasons Against Boot Reportedly the fourth person voted off - Chill Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill 2. Heidi Strobel Reasons For Boot None as of right now. Reasons Against Boot Returned 23 pounds lighter, and almost had to be hospitalized. Hair was falling out - Both from Milkshaky Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill Not in the Final 4, but comes very close - Milkshaky 3. Janet Koth Reasons For Boot None for now Reasons Against Boot Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill 4. Jeanne Herbert Reasons For Boot None as of right now. Reasons Against Boot Possibly one of the Final 4. -Chill Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill Mother figure - per TV Guide 5. Jenna Morasca Reasons For Boot None as of right now. Reasons Against Boot Possibly one of the Final 4 - Chill***** Women reportedly win first challenge- Chill. 6. Joanna Ward Reasons For Boot None as of right now. Reasons Against Boot Reportedly the third person voted off - Chill Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill. 7. Shawna Mitchell Reasons For Boot None as of right now. Reasons Against Boot Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill 8. Christy Smith Reasons For Boot None as of right now. Reasons Against Boot Women reportedly win first challenge - Chill One of final four? - Chill POSSIBLE BOOTS based on the spoiling information from Chill, thanks SurvivorFive First off: Daniel Second off: Ryan Third off: Joanna Thirteenth off: Christy Fourteenth off: Butch Fifteenth off: Alex, David or Matthew Winner: Shawna******* ******Editing post as I believe the problem with the names really refer to SHAWNA as the winner   Top

Remove

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

Select another forum Lobby The Amazing Race Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--The Amazing Race Fanatics Forum (Protected)   |--The Amazing Race Basher Forum (Protected)   |--The Amazing Race Spoiler/Speculation Forum (Protected) American Idol Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--American Idol General Discussion Forum (Protected)   |--American Idol Individual Contestant and Judge Discussion Forum (Protected) Big Brother Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--Big Brother Fanatic Forum (Protected)   |--Big Brother Bashers Forum (Protected)   |--Big Brother Live Feed Updates And Spoilers (Protected) Survivor Message Board Forums (Conference)   |--Survivor Fanatic Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Basher Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)   |--Survivor Games Forum (Protected) Other Reality TV Shows (Conference)   |--The Bachelor / The Bachelorette Forum (Protected)   |--Dancing with the Stars Forum (Protected)   |--Other Reality TV Shows Forum (Protected) Off Topic (Conference)   |--The Help Forum (Protected)   |--Off-Topic Forum (Protected)