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realitybites 1174 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-11-02, 02:02 PM (EST) "Odds of winning" Now that I've had a chance to see two episodes and get to know the ten remaining contestants a little better, I feel ready to put odds on them winning the whole thing. Keep in mind that these are for amusement purposes only: AARON & ARIANNE - 5-1 The good: Have been quick at every stop, fun-loving attitude The bad: Revolt against Derek & Drew may be their undoing FLO & ZACH - 6-1 The good: Have done well so far The bad: Little arguments can become big arguments, given enough time JV & JILL - 6-1 The good: See Flo & Zach The bad: Not the fastest of teams ANDRE & DAMON - 8-1 The good: Ruthless, fit The bad: On the slow side, not endearing themselves with other teams DENNIS & ANDREW - 8-1 The good: Flying below radar The bad: Also flying below the speed limit MICHAEL & KATHY - 8-1 The good: No major arguments yet The bad: If Kathy has to carry this team, they might as well pack for Loser Island now DEREK & DREW - 10-1 The good: Obvious The bad: Lack of travel sense, big bullseye on their backs, no more FF HEATHER & EVE - 10-1 The good: Shameless The bad: Eve might run out of tears KEN & GERARD - 10-1 The good: There are worse teams The bad: There are better teams, most of whom have their FF TERI & IAN - 30-1 The good: Um, Teri seems OK The bad: Really, really slow   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Odds of winning Sophie 10-11-02 1    RE: Odds of winning railfan 10-11-02 2    RE: Odds of winning Sophie 10-28-02 13  RE: Odds of winning TeamJoisey 10-11-02 3    Heather/Eve and Andre/Damon realitybites 10-12-02 4    RE: Odds of winning stan1616 10-13-02 5        RE: Odds of winning Esbea 10-13-02 6            RE: Odds of winning ShowMeTheWinner 10-14-02 7                RE: Odds of winning Esbea 10-16-02 10        RE: Odds of winning ShowMeTheWinner 10-14-02 8        RE: Odds of winning toddE 10-29-02 14  RE: Odds of winning samiam 10-14-02 9  No major changes realitybites 10-18-02 11  Updated for week 4 realitybites 10-24-02 12  Finish Average Esbea 10-29-02 15    RE: Finish Average Esbea 10-30-02 16  Week 5 update realitybites 10-31-02 17  Final 3 update realitybites 12-12-02 18    RE: Final 3 update chichiford 12-12-02 19

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Sophie 2407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 10-11-02, 08:21 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Odds of winning" >HEATHER & EVE - 10-1 >The good: Shameless >The bad: Eve might run >out of tears Though I'm definitely rooting for Aaron & Arianne...I just want to point out that Heather and Eve have a lot going for them and I think they have a better shot at winning than 10-1. I'd say 5-1 or 8-1. They are smart and ruthless and both eliminated teams have referenced their intelligence. I think we're stuck with them for quite a while.   Top

railfan 450 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 10-11-02, 09:44 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Odds of winning" These odds are reasonable based on the first two eps, except I would reverse the odds and positions of Heave and Dandy. I think Heave is being set up to last a little longer.   Top

Sophie 2407 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 10-28-02, 09:01 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Odds of winning" Just writing to say I no longer agree with a single thing I said in my previous post.   Top

TeamJoisey 3558 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 10-11-02, 10:52 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Odds of winning" I would lower the odds on Heather & Eve, who seem to be coasting along with some of the stronger teams. 8-1 I would raise the odds on Andre & Damon, who have just been too slow, mentally and physically, to win this thing. 10-1 Otherwise, I'd say you are right on the money. I'm rooting for FloZac or JVJ to win it all. These reality show contestants need a reality check!   Top

realitybites 1174 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-12-02, 00:27 AM (EST) 4. "Heather/Eve and Andre/Damon" One thing that is, in my eyes, working FOR Andre & Damon and AGAINST Heather & Eve is history. Both TAR winners have been male-male teams, and both of them at times looked terrible. The female-female teams have either been eliminated early or hit a "wall" midway through. So I'll be cautious about Heather & Eve's chances until they get by leg 7 or so.   Top

stan1616 121 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 10-13-02, 08:27 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Odds of winning" First of all, as it said in the other spoiler and the TAR sightings, JVJ will miss the flight, which puts them in jeopardy. Flach, as they said will be in the finals so they have a good chance of winning. JVJ will have a 7-1 chance for me and Flach a 5-1. About the Doublemint Twins, they're kind and cool, I don't know why Aaron and Arianne hates them. DD will be declared as the "kinder" Team Guido this time so they have a good chance of winning. About gays in TAR, there are 2. Aaron and Andrew. Aaron has a good chemistry with Arianne because even though Arianne doesn't admit it, she is actually gay also. Dennis and Andrew doesn't have that good of a chance of winning cuz Dennis is trying to correct Andrew's gender, which won't help them in any way. That's why I'd give DD 8-1 and Dennis and Andrew a 10-1 chance. Stan1616   Top

Esbea 7377 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-13-02, 10:59 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Odds of winning" "About gays in TAR, there are 2"......? Did the bald bro suddenly start playing for the other team? "even though Arianne doesn't admit it, she is actually gay also". Maybe you ought to email her and let her know.... "Dennis is trying to correct Andrew's gender". Are we watching the same show!??! And Im curious how any of that has anything to do with the odds of winning... "The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, youre still a rat"   Top

ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-14-02, 03:31 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Odds of winning" Esbea, can I have your address? You owe me a new set of pants for making me p33 in my pants!!! ROTFL Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)   Top

Esbea 7377 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-16-02, 04:58 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Odds of winning" Can I just send you a box of Depends and we'll call it even? "The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, youre still a rat"   Top

ShowMeTheWinner 962 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 10-14-02, 03:43 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Odds of winning" LAST EDITED ON 10-14-02 AT 04:58 PM (EST) By the way, I'm taking the final leg spoiler with a big grain of salt. IAN sat next to the guy? I don't think Ian's gonna last all the way to the last leg, is he? I sure hope not! Kathy O'Brien... The Sole Survivor! (I'd rather be delusional)   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 10-29-02, 04:32 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Odds of winning" Hey Stan, Long time no see. Though I haven't been watching TAR3, I read that either Ken or Gerard is also gay, so that's 3 (2 left now).   Top

samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-14-02, 04:02 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Odds of winning" I'd say 1:1. Oh, wait, I thought this said, "odds of whining". My bad. "It has yet to be proven that intelligence has any survival value." -- Arthur C. Clarke   Top

realitybites 1174 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-18-02, 03:09 AM (EST) 11. "No major changes" Aaron & Arianne 5-1 Flo & Zach 6-1 Michael & Kathy 7-1 JV & Jill 7-1 Derek & Drew 8-1 Ken & Gerard 8-1 Andre & Damon 9-1 Heather & Eve 10-1 Teri & Ian 25-1   Top

realitybites 1174 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-24-02, 07:44 AM (EST) 12. "Updated for week 4" Aaron & Arianne 6-1 - Giving up on the alliance. Good for them. Flo & Zach 6-1 - Will move up if they can survive this week. Derek & Drew 6-1 - Race's physicality suits their strengths. Ken & Gerard 6-1 - They keep doing well, I have to respect that. Michael & Kathy 8-1 - Haven't killed each other yet. JV & Jill 8-1 - Should be doing better than they are. Maybe soon. Andre & Damon 8-1 - See JV & Jill. Teri & Ian 20-1 - Surviving on the bad luck of other teams.   Top

Esbea 7377 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-29-02, 04:50 PM (EST) 15. "Finish Average" LAST EDITED ON 10-29-02 AT 04:51 PM (EST) Just out of curiousity, I thought Id take everyones place finish for the race so far and figure their average finish: (did that make ANY sense?) Gerkin 2.5 Flozac 3 Zoolanders 3.75 AA 4.25 McDate 5.25 JVJ 6.25 Guns N Hoses 6.75 The Bunkers 8.25 "I prefer the wicked to the foolish. The wicked sometimes rest."   Top

Esbea 7377 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 10-30-02, 12:35 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Finish Average" shameless bump "I prefer the wicked to the foolish. The wicked sometimes rest."   Top

realitybites 1174 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 10-31-02, 03:26 PM (EST) 17. "Week 5 update" Ken & Gerard 5-1 - They keep going and going... Flo & Zach 6-1 - If a bungee jump comes up, they're in deep trouble Derek & Drew 6-1 - Movin' right along Aaron & Arianne 7-1 - They'll take the FF soon; that should help JV & Jill 7-1 - Still slower than is good for them Andre & Damon 8-1 - The coattail strategy won't work forever Teri & Ian 18-1 - One more escape and they'll break Russell & Cyndi's record   Top

realitybites 1174 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 12-12-02, 07:37 AM (EST) 18. "Final 3 update" Now that all but the last three have been cleared out of the race, the favorites are easier to see. * TERI & IAN have been underdogs throughout the race. No one took them seriously - not the racers, and not even me. During most of the first half of the race, they were within two spots of being eliminated, but weren't due to the incompetence or bad luck of other teams. They've done better lately and are in a good position heading into the penultimate leg. They may need it because in order to beat either of the other teams in a footrace, they would have to be significantly ahead. Perhaps they'll do it, but I won't predict that. FINAL ODDS - 5-1 * FLO & ZACH, in contrast to T&I, did very well in the first half of the race. They only won one leg but they have several 2nds and 3rds. As racers they started to cool off during the second half of the race, partly due to that distraction on the other team, and partly due to Zach (understandably) tuning his partner out. They're thisclose to falling apart on us, and if that happens, they can kiss the million goodbye. I don't think that will quite happen, but I also think that there are more hard times coming and they will have a hard time dealing with them with as united a front as they need. FINAL ODDS - 2-1 * KEN & GERARD are my new favorites after Derek & Drew were eliminated. They've done well - surprisingly well - throughout the race. They've been good-mannered and united as a team and savvy as game players. The only bad point is that they're significantly behind the other two teams and there is always the risk that bunching may not save them. Keep your fingers crossed if you're rooting for this team. FINAL ODDS - EVEN   Top

chichiford 18 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-12-02, 09:57 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Final 3 update" Okay, speculation time... Does anybody think there is a connection between being under the radar or being talked up a lot and winning the race? I've watched the Early Show after each elimination (I know, I'm a loser), and I've noticed that there are always questions about Terri and Ian and occassionally about Flo and Zach, but no one ever asks (or mentions for that matter) Ken and Gerard. Thoughts? Would that change the odds?   Top

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