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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 02:34 AM (EST) "Final Two per TDT" LAST EDITED ON 12-03-02 AT 03:51 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 12-03-02 AT 02:51 AM (EST) DO NOT GO if you don't wanna know... I'm surprised there's no thread up on this one here, as it came out a few days ago. If I missed an existing thread, sorry, please lock this. Edit: OK, I found it buried in BI's GUT thread, but it's not being taken that seriously, perhaps because it's not Snewser? Do I believe this spoiler? Absolutely. Congratulations to True Dork Times for this scoop! http://www.truedorktimes.com/s5/spoilers/ep13.htm "The True Dork Times has learned that the final two are Brian and Clay." Bye Jake, sadly, from those of us who were rooting for the real despondent underdog to get back in the game. Also farewell to any hopes that Helen would pull it together to stop the threats before they win the game exactly as Jake told her they would. Question is, how long does Brian wait until he ditches Ted? Final 3? Or does he get Helen to help them out and remove the threat once Jake is gone? Edit again to thank big idiot for pointing to the correct thread where this was raised. I had just read both threads and misremembered the title. And yes, I agree that this spoiler is not phrased as spec. There is nothing equivocal about TDT's statement, and he doesn't leave himself ANY wiggle room for being wrong. I take that to mean he is highly confident that what he has "learned" is accurate. "If we knew today what we knew yesterday, we couldn't give it away"--Aimee Mann   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Final Two per TDT big idiot 12-03-02 1    RE: Final Two per TDT jsanb 12-03-02 3        SO, If Jake wins IC, who goes?! TribalTex29 12-05-02 52  Battle Royale chlim01 12-03-02 2  Very interesting AyaK 12-03-02 4    RE: Very interesting bubbastan 12-03-02 5        RE: Very interesting toddE 12-03-02 6        RE: Very interesting Outfrontgirl 12-03-02 7            RE: Very interesting bubbastan 12-03-02 8            RE: Very interesting SurvivinDawg 12-04-02 27    Calling AyaK bebekid 12-03-02 13        RE: Calling AyaK dabo 12-05-02 50  RE: Final Two per TDT Brownroach 12-03-02 9    RE: Final Two per TDT smrtNsassybnkr 12-03-02 15  Snewser weighs in on TDT Brownroach 12-03-02 10  The Devil's Advocate FesterFan1 12-03-02 11    RE: The Devil's Advocate bebekid 12-03-02 12    RE: The Devil's Advocate Kokoro 12-03-02 14    RE: The Devil's Advocate MarquesanHunter 12-03-02 17        Agree AyaK 12-04-02 34        RE: The Devil's Advocate FesterFan1 12-04-02 36            Wow! AyaK 12-04-02 38                Sure, I'm game FesterFan1 12-04-02 41                    Pick your own AyaK 12-04-02 47            RE: The Devil's Advocate TDT 12-04-02 42                RE: The Devil's Advocate FesterFan1 12-04-02 46                    RE: The Devil's Advocate SurvivorBlows 12-04-02 48    RE: The Devil's Advocate Outfrontgirl 12-03-02 20        RE: The Devil's Advocate dabo 12-03-02 22            RE: The Devil's Advocate Outfrontgirl 12-03-02 25                RE: The Devil's Advocate SurvivinDawg 12-04-02 28                    Let Me Clarify dabo 12-04-02 29        RE: The Devil's Advocate FesterFan1 12-04-02 33            RE: The Devil's Advocate jsanb 12-04-02 44    RE: The Devil's Advocate TDT 12-03-02 23        RE: The Devil's Advocate Outfrontgirl 12-03-02 24        My Apologies FesterFan1 12-04-02 32  so, does this mean I was right? shakes the clown 12-03-02 16    RE: so, does this mean I was right? dabo 12-03-02 18    RE: so, does this mean I was right? George Tirebiter 12-03-02 19    RE: so, does this mean I was right? Outfrontgirl 12-03-02 21        Good points AyaK 12-04-02 35    Ivory Elephant, too toddE 12-03-02 26    RE: so, does this mean I was right? Draco Malfoy 12-04-02 31    RE: so, does this mean I was right? anotherkim 12-04-02 45  Why MB revealed strategies... big idiot 12-04-02 30    RE: Brian/Clay/Ted barrymore 12-04-02 37        You are correct! AyaK 12-04-02 39            RE: You are correct! sleeeve 12-06-02 56        RE: Brian/Clay/Ted Bebo 12-04-02 40        RE: Brian/Clay/Ted Brownroach 12-04-02 43  RE: Final Two per TDT Helenwins 12-05-02 49    RE: Final Two per TDT VerucaSalt 12-05-02 51        RE: Final Two per TDT Helenwins 12-06-02 53  New final two clip in opening credi... brwgrl 12-06-02 54  One more BIG thank you AyaK 12-06-02 55  big idiot's 'Third Perspective' IceCat 12-10-02 57

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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-03-02, 03:38 AM (EST) 1. "RE: Final Two per TDT" OFG, the chatter on this is buried in the "Jake Goes" thread, but it still needs its own thread, so good job. This TDT edict is a bee in my bonnet. It does read as if they have insider info, and have validated it somehow to give them strong confidence. If it were their own analysis I would put less stock in it, but as it stands I garner that it is not, so I put more credibility in it. And ya know what else I like about it? No winner claim. Yeah, I like that. Speculation against a Brian/Clay F2? I cover my thoughts on that in my BI GUT thread, so I'll ramble about the antithesis here. Speculation FOR a Brian/Clay F2 (or at least, speculation on a Jake boot this week): 1) Newton's first law of motion: tendency of an object in motion to stay in motion, in Latin this is called "Pagong". 2) Look at all the preview vidcaps of Jake, find a happy one. Even in the midst of the Popanutapalooza at RC, jake looks like someone slapped him with a rancid fish. He looks like someone who knows the end is nigh. 3) Ability for Jake to win IC is small. 4) Weight loss rumors of Jake? none. 5) Past episodes have shown him scheming, struggling, working all angles. If that had worked then it would be better to not show that and let his progress be a surprise. But we are shown it because it did not work? 6) Ken's comment about keeping Brian's past a secret to not hurt his chances at a million. 7) Clay's comment that challenges stayed pretty consistently hard until "the end". 8) Ted's comment, "I did the best I could" (meaning, not a final two?) 9) Loyalty, Faith, Trust. Jan at last IC taking instructions from Brian. Ted doubting Jake's words of CG orchestrating votes against him. Helen running to Brian and Clay about Jake's forked tongue. Clay and Brian's romantic pachyderm ride. In RC preview vidcap, Helen's proximity to Brian and she puts her hand on his leg . 10) Erin's friends (jan, helen, clay): another interpretation (sigh): Jan is boot number 12; jury bonding, Helen is boot number 13; jury bonding, Ted is boot number 14; no time for jury bonding, Brian in F2; no time for bonding, Clay goes to Penny's wedding; bonding. So if Brian and Clay are F2, why does MB reveal most of their strategies? Perhaps MB wanted to reinforce the success of NOT playing UTR, no winner by default here, either one of these "players" earned their spot. So who goes this week, Clay or Jake? Beats me, it is better if i just stick to raising crows, eating them is not so enjoyable. BI   Top

jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-03-02, 01:56 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Final Two per TDT" I love it when 2 different Spoilers and one picks Clay next and the other picks Clay in the final two and both seem reasonable. Jake is next without a doubt unless he wins IC that I do know. I think the next vote that takes out a CG will finally reveal the alliance structure that MB has hidden from us this season. Peanut Butter Jeff "If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."   Top

TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-05-02, 06:21 PM (EST) 52. "SO, If Jake wins IC, who goes?!" I haven't read much on here except that Jake is the obvious choice to go. I did learn from the 'Closer Look' episode that Helen went to Brian to confirm things Jake was telling her in private which Is one reason Penny distanced herself from Jake. Helen will never make it to the final two if she doesn't break up the Brian/Clay/Ted thing. She better get going.   Top

chlim01 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-03-02, 05:58 AM (EST) 2. "Battle Royale" LAST EDITED ON 12-03-02 AT 05:59 AM (EST) With so few episodes left, it'd be fun to see if TDT can trump the rival spoilers of Snewser (Jan wins) and Paratrooper (Jake wins). I'm personally hoping for a Jan/Jake showdown.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 02:07 PM (EST) 4. "Very interesting" First, let me note that TDT, like snewser, is another of my old on-line friends. Second, this Final 2 would clearly be in keeping with Brian's strategy ... and would be consistent with the idea that MB showed us so much about Brian's "wealth" and bimbo wife because he wanted to convey the idea to us that Brian was in trouble, even though he isn't. Kinda the way that MB milked Lex's "troubles" in S3 to distract us from the strength of the Lex-Ethan-Tom group. Do I believe that TDT could have a scoop about this? Absolutely. Do I believe that this is the final 2? Yeah, I do, because Occam's Razor generally does a good job of predicting Survivor boots, and Occam's Razor says that Jake and Jan are the next two to go, leaving a Brian-Ted-Clay-Helen F4 with Brian and Clay at the core. Ooh, and all the bad footage of Clay leering after Erin in the recap would fit with this too...   Top

bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-03-02, 02:39 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Very interesting" Ayak, I've been stumbling around for some time in the archives trying to find the thread which defines "Occam's Razor". It's referred to so often, I feel like I've come in half-way through a movie and am trying in vain to reconstruct the plot. Would you be so kind as to point me in the right direction?   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-03-02, 02:49 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Very interesting" Occam's razor says the simplest solution is usually the correct one. I'm not sure how that applies here. I, personally, mostly hang out at this site, but do occasionally check out the other 3 spoilers who are often referred to here. My own, anecdotal, results of reliability are like this: Snewser is #1. Gave the whole final 4 in order last season and few people seemed to believe it. So, I for one will anticipate a Jan victory until she is booted. Paratrooper is #2. Occasionally, moreso than Snewser, changes predictions. But track record is overall pretty good. TDT is a distant #3. To be honest, they seem to constantly change their predictions and I've never given them credence in the past. The only thing that makes me listen to them at all is AyaK's endorsement. But, of the moderators, I think sleeeve has been the most predictible. I always look at sleeeve's vote to see who is going to be voted off each week.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 02:53 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Very interesting" bubbastan, this link has a short bio and a funny cartoon on the principle. http://zebu.uoregon.edu/~js/glossary/occams_razor.html And here is the longer explanation: Occam's Razor "one should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything " -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Occam's razor is a logical principle attributed to the mediaeval philosopher William of Occam (or Ockham). The principle states that one should not make more assumptions than the minimum needed. This principle is often called the principle of parsimony. It underlies all scientific modelling and theory building. It admonishes us to choose from a set of otherwise equivalent models of a given phenomenon the simplest one. In any given model, Occam's razor helps us to "shave off" those concepts, variables or constructs that are not really needed to explain the phenomenon. By doing that, developing the model will become much easier, and there is less chance of introducing inconsistencies, ambiguities and redundancies. Though the principle may seem rather trivial, it is essential for model building because of what is known as the "underdetermination of theories by data". For a given set of observations or data, there is always an infinite number of possible models explaining those same data. This is because a model normally represents an infinite number of possible cases, of which the observed cases are only a finite subset. The non-observed cases are inferred by postulating general rules covering both actual and potential observations. For example, through two data points in a diagram you can always draw a straight line, and induce that all further observations will lie on that line. However, you could also draw an infinite variety of the most complicated curves passing through those same two points, and these curves would fit the empirical data just as well. Only Occam's razor would in this case guide you in choosing the "straight" (i.e. linear) relation as best candidate model. A similar reasoning can be made for n data points lying in any kind of distribution. Occam's razor is especially important for universal models such as the ones developed in General Systems Theory, mathematics or philosophy, because there the subject domain is of an unlimited complexity. If one starts with too complicated foundations for a theory that potentially encompasses the universe, the chances of getting any manageable model are very slim indeed. Moreover, the principle is sometimes the only remaining guideline when entering domains of such a high level of abstraction that no concrete tests or observations can decide between rival models. In mathematical modelling of systems, the principle can be made more concrete in the form of the principle of uncertainty maximization: from your data, induce that model which minimizes the number of additional assumptions. This principle is part of epistemology, and can be motivated by the requirement of maximal simplicity of cognitive models. However, its significance might be extended to metaphysics if it is interpreted as saying that simpler models are more likely to be correct than complex ones, in other words, that "nature" prefers simplicity. ------------------------- And in so far as Reality TV resembles Nature (bwahaha)--so does Survivor. "If we knew today what we knew yesterday, we couldn't give it away"--Aimee Mann   Top

bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-03-02, 03:30 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Very interesting" OFG, WOW!!! And people have the audacity to say that you can't learn anything by hanging around on message boards! Thanks very much for the info, and for all the cool facts. ToddE my thanks to you as well for your response. I only wished I had asked this question last year when I first started frequenting this site.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 06:52 AM (EST) 27. "RE: Very interesting" All those looks, and all those brains too! *sigh* Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-03-02, 05:37 PM (EST) 13. "Calling AyaK" LAST EDITED ON 12-03-02 AT 09:09 PM (EST) Since Snewser is a friend of yours, could you contact him and get his reaction (if any) to TDT's assertion? I would also be curious if he still stands by his prediction of Jan winning. No problem if you can't contact him; just thought I'd ask! Edited to say why didn't I see Brownroach's post about Snewser posting on Sucks? Well, that just gives credit to TDT. AyaK, please ignore!   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-05-02, 09:43 AM (EST) 50. "RE: Calling AyaK" Check out Snewser's Scorecard (linked on snoocharoo's excellent SOTS), he seems to be getting behind TDT as he now has Brian and Clay picked as the potential winners, "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 04:11 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Final Two per TDT" Wow, this is so disappointing, just because Brian/Clay is my least desirable Final 2 matchup. But I have to trust the judgment of the E...rs on this board, OFG and AyaK, regarding TDT's reliability. And I've always enjoyed and respected TDT's analysis. I am wondering about one thing, though. This seems to be only thing TDT has posted as a "definite" all season. Did he suddenly acquire a new source that he trusts this late in the game ? Otherwise, why could he not post at least some irrefutable spoilers throughout the season, much as Snewser does with his boot picks? I don't mean to pooh-pooh TDT, it just seems odd. But since this is the inevitable Occam's Razor Final 2 anyway, I'll just say congratulations to TDT on the scoop as well!   Top

smrtNsassybnkr 332 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 12-03-02, 05:48 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Final Two per TDT" I'm gunna laugh my head off when Clay gets the boot this week. Personally, I don't think Jake is going. I think MB is trying to fool us. I too, think it will come down to a showdown between Jake and Jan. Hopefully, clay will be the one snuffed this week   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 05:08 PM (EST) 10. "Snewser weighs in on TDT" Snewser posted this on the Sucks board: >>My pick of Jan winning wasn't confirmed. Just an educated guess before the show started airing based on circumstantial evidence. I've been gone for 5 days, so haven't really researched the latest goings on yet, but If TDT feels this confident about the final two being Brian and Clay, I'm inclined to believe him. <<   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 05:13 PM (EST) 11. "The Devil's Advocate" OK, time out. Let's look at this spoiler for a minute, shall we? Item #1: Other Spoilers Snewser has been advocating a Jan win since before E1; not guaranteeing, mind you, but advocating. He hasn't waivered. He hasn't reconsidered. He hasn't changed his mind in light of this new development...yet. Paratrooper has been touting a SJ win for almost as long. Not sure where he got that, but nevertheless he's had it out there for the duration of the season (I think). There is a current rumor regarding Ted's brother's visit to Thailand which puts Ted in the F3 with a man and a woman. TDT's projection cannot coexist with any of these, while the Ted rumor could go with either Paratrooper's pick or Snewser's. Item #2: TDT's S5 Rep TDT has not had a good season. He's been a beat behind Snewser all season long. While the vidcap analysis has been good, it hasn't led to a good spoiling record. Now I know the way he phrased it on the site was an assertion and not speculation. Still, with the season TDT has had, and the amount of times he's had to change his pick at the 11th hour due to Snewser's scoops, you'd think he'd be trumpeting this coup of a find from the highest mountain, not tucking it away on the E13 page which is 2 weeks away. Item #3: EPMB and Editing Has the editing for S5 been a reaction to the outcry following 2 UTR winners in the past 3 seasons? Honestly, if anyone other than Jan wins at this point, there wouldn't be any basis for such a complaint. We've seen all the others attempting to "play the game". Is this MB's revenge on the spoiling community--having them wait for Godot (i.e., the hidden alliance), when the winners were right in front of them? The editing themes for S5 have been pretty consistent. Based on the pattern, and the pattern of the "Recap Redemption" from seasons past, Clay is ripe for the picking. He's had a significant spike in face time. He's shown his endgame strategy already. He's stoked the fire by first voting for Jake outside the group and then by getting in Jake's face about it in the previews. The theme of E10 was "playing both sides of the fence". Clay & Brian accused Jake of doing that when both of them were just as (if not more) guilty of the same. The point is that ALL of the classic MB foreshadowing is pointing to a Clay boot in E11. Item #4: "A Big Surprise...and Another" Well, we know what the "Big Surprise" is. It's the family visit. But what's the "...and Another", if it's not a surprise boot? What could possibly qualify as a "Big" surprise outside of that at this stage. I would argue that to the general viewing audience, the only "surprise" boot candidates are Clay & Brian. Jake wouldn't be a surprise, obviously. Ted wouldn't be a surprise since he's been openly plotted against by both Brian and Clay. Jan wouldn't be a surprise boot as she picked up a vote from Jake last week and has been "out of the loop" to the audience for weeks. Helen wouldn't be a surprise because they have spent a good 2 episodes making her out to be some annoying "Recipe Rainwoman" AND she's been shown talking strategy with the enemy (however innocent she played it). All in all, I find this spoiler to be a bit too tidy and unexplained (and I'm not talking about revealing sources). At this stage, Helen, Ted, and Jake are all suspicious of Clay and Brian...and who knows what Jan is thinking when she's not thinking about beer. The audience has been set up for a Clay/Brian F2 showdown, but it seems fairly implausible that the two of them could pull it off. Of course, that's just my opinion...I could be wrong. Fester   Top

bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-03-02, 05:30 PM (EST) 12. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" The cool thing is, come Thursday, one of the above theories will be dead in the water. If Jake is booted, then ParaT is wrong. If Clay goes, then TDT is wrong. If Jan goes, then Snewser is wrong. I haven't been following closely, but it looks as though the 2 most likely candidates this week are Jake and Clay. Either one, and one of our "professional spoiler" predictions goes out the window. And here I was almost not caring what happens Thursday. This will make things interesting, to see who is wrong!   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 12-03-02, 05:47 PM (EST) 14. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" Also throw under "editing" that based on what we've seen in past seasons, this final 2 doesn't make any sense. Is it the editing or am I wrong in thinking that both of them have been shown as sneaky, underhanded and dispicable towards others? They've both been painted in the worst light possible. Giving a million dollars to either of them would be a blow to humanity as a whole (erm....maybe not as dramatic but y'all know what I mean ;) And for them to win, Jan, Helen ~and~ Ted would have to continue down their path of obliviousness for the next 3 episodes just to be picked off one by one without ever bothering to realize what was going on. I beleive seeds of doubt being sewn and the reactions of each tribe member is a portent of things to come. Plus, I'm still going with the "surprise" post-recap episode. It doesn't mean that the game will turn around after episode 11, but I agree with Fester that Clay's sudden spike doesn't bode well for him. ----------------------------------- Now let us never speak of S3 again.   Top

MarquesanHunter 37 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-03-02, 08:23 PM (EST) 17. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" "TDT has not had a good season. He's been a beat behind Snewser all season long. While the vidcap analysis has been good, it hasn't led to a good spoiling record. Now I know the way he phrased it on the site was an assertion and not speculation. Still, with the season TDT has had, and the amount of times he's had to change his pick at the 11th hour due to Snewser's scoops" Just to defend TDT he as only changed his picks two times this season to match up with Snewser's pick, which was the correct one and lots of other people changed thier picks also according to the game results from those weeks, he's a spoiler site after all. His record for the S5 season stands at 8 out of 10 missing only the Tanya and Erin boots. MH ~ I think we have all been a beat behind Snewser for at least the last 2 seasons   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 10:59 AM (EST) 34. "Agree" >MH ~ I think we have all been a beat behind Snewser for at least the >last 2 seasons Hi, MarquesanHunter! Nice to see you here. I agree with everything you say and simply want to point out that Snewser's source generally seems to be accurate for the upcoming week, but it doesn't seem to provide longer-term info.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 11:18 AM (EST) 36. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 11:21 AM (EST) Just to defend TDT he as only changed his picks two times this season to match up with Snewser's pick Just to defend my position on TDT's S5 spoiler record, this is not true. He officially changed it 3 times (E3, E5, and E6) and changed his tune for E10 after Snewser projected a Penny boot. That's 4 in 10 episodes, or 40%. I didn't even mention the incorrect picks in E2 and E8, which brings it to 60%. and lots of other people changed thier picks also according to the game results from those weeks, he's a spoiler site after all. I'm not really sure what this means. Of course people changed their picks after Snewser posted the answers. Are we supposed to give TDT credit for that? His record for the S5 season stands at 8 out of 10 missing only the Tanya and Erin boots. See above. Fester   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 11:54 AM (EST) 38. "Wow!" Fester, I'm amazed that you have so much detail about other sites' picks. I know MarquesanHunter used to post a list in MeSS of all the picks made on other boards -- would you like to do that here?   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 12:04 PM (EST) 41. "Sure, I'm game" AK, I'm willing to do that. Could you e-mail me with a list of sites you'd like included? Fester   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 05:46 PM (EST) 47. "Pick your own" Fester, since it's your post, it's your baby. Pick whichever sites you prefer (I know of SurvivorSucks EZboard and MeSS, ABT, SurvivorNews, TDT, SurvivorFever (if it still exists), paratrooper's site, Voted Off!, Survivor-Central, realiiity.com, Survivor Fire, etc.). You can visit all of them or whichever ones you like. I'm not sure what MarquesanHunter still does, but he may still put together a weekly list on MeSS. I'm not sure which sites he includes. And, as always, have fun.   Top

TDT 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-04-02, 12:29 PM (EST) 42. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" Fester, you're certainly not the first person to take this position, although you do appear to be one of the most persistent. So I'll tell you what I said on EZ: The spoiler section of my site is intended to SPOIL THE SHOW. That means giving away the outcome of the show before it airs. Can you explain what the point of labeling the section "spoilers" is, if I have something up I know to be untrue? Such as the Ep3 bootee that a few hours before airtime, I knew to be Jed, thanks to Snewser's spoiler? I also don't see why you care about giving me "credit" or not. I'm pretty clear about why my picks have come out the way they have (sheer guesswork, last-minute change due to a spoiler from someone else, and so on). By the end of the week, very little of it comes solely from my addled brain. And it certainly does nothing to make me look brilliant if I cite the work of others and leave up my own incorrect analysis when I change my mind. I don't need no stinking "credit". One of the disadvantages of having a web site for this, particularly one that includes vidcap analysis, is that I need to update it frequently. Spoilers, new previews, interviews, and other information trickle out in the week between shows, and sometimes those pieces of data alter how I and others perceive the upcoming episode. If I put up vidcaps with no commentary, people clog my inbox with their interpretation of the vidcaps. If I don't put up anything, people send me emails helpfully pointing out that CBS is airing commercials for the show. And if I put something up and change my mind because somebody on a board has pointed out something I hadn't considered, I get chastised for being a lemming. It's a no-win situation. I would love to have a complete spoiler list prior to ep1, post it once, and never have to update my site. But that's unlikely to ever happen. So instead, I do what I can to keep it current. Apparently you see any kind of update that keeps the site representing the state of the spoiling to the best of my judgment, as somehow antithetical to my site's purpose. Are you trying to tell me that I should watch just the preview after the show airs, base all my projections on that, and completely ignore all other information that comes out during the week? If I wanted to bask in the glow of my personal prognosticatory prowess, I'd be playing Survivor fantasy games. I prefer to poke holes in Mark Burnett's veil of secrecy as best I can, and broadcast it to as many people as feel like reading it. Your mileage may vary.   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 02:29 PM (EST) 46. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" The spoiler section of my site is intended to SPOIL THE SHOW. That means giving away the outcome of the show before it airs. TDT, as you may or may not be aware (since you have your own web site to run, which I'm sure takes a great deal of your time), we've had this argument over here earlier this season. It's not really germane to my larger point, but it does go to credibility in some capacity. Personally, I don't consider it to be great "spoiling work" to post a link to someone else's find. It's informational, sure, but it's really just piggy-backing. Which is fine, except when it comes to promoting your own great find. When you've spent the entire season piggy-backing, you shouldn't be surprised when people call actual spoilers into question when they haven't been backed up by anything except assertive language. Can you explain what the point of labeling the section "spoilers" is, if I have something up I know to be untrue? Such as the Ep3 bootee that a few hours before airtime, I knew to be Jed, thanks to Snewser's spoiler? I certainly wouldn't expect you to keep information that you knew to be incorrect up on your site, but that's not my point. The point is that "records" (for lack of a better word) get attached to such "picks" (as noted by MarquesanHunter), and that Joe and Joan Fan base their less-informed picks on the "records" of sites such as yours. Reputations get built on such "picks", and before you know it, people are assigning words like "expert spoiler" based on all of this. All I'm attempting to do is demonstrate which sites have had a truer "record". I also don't see why you care about giving me "credit" or not. I'm pretty clear about why my picks have come out the way they have (sheer guesswork, last-minute change due to a spoiler from someone else, and so on). By the end of the week, very little of it comes solely from my addled brain. And it certainly does nothing to make me look brilliant if I cite the work of others and leave up my own incorrect analysis when I change my mind. I don't need no stinking "credit". Again, you're missing my point. This isn't about you. It's about everyone else who reads these boards basing their picks on your information. I like your site. I go there a lot. I really enjoy the analysis that you do, and it's pretty damn funny to boot. And I give you credit for leaving your original analyses up there when they've been proven wrong. All I'm saying is that when someone who has been wrong a lot all of a sudden has breaking new info that gets snuck into the fine print, it ought to raise some questions; especially when the guy who has been right a lot, and has been getting the inside scoop routinely, doesn't have the same info. As someone who is often wrong himself, I'm not sure why this comes as a shock. If I don't put up anything, people send me emails helpfully pointing out that CBS is airing commercials for the show. And if I put something up and change my mind because somebody on a board has pointed out something I hadn't considered, I get chastised for being a lemming. It's a no-win situation. I appreciate this and I think your vidcap analysis is great. I don't think I accused you of being a lemming (if I did inadvertently, I apologize). Like I said before, it just goes to credibility when you're posting information as irrefutable truth. Apparently you see any kind of update that keeps the site representing the state of the spoiling to the best of my judgment, as somehow antithetical to my site's purpose. Are you trying to tell me that I should watch just the preview after the show airs, base all my projections on that, and completely ignore all other information that comes out during the week? Once again, I'm really not sure what I wrote to make you think that. Is it really out of line for me to question your scoop? I didn't realize that your site was above reproach. All I'm trying to do is assemble the best information I can to make an informed choice as to who gets booted this week...and next...and so on. As I have said, repeatedly now, I just want something to make me believe you really have the dip. I don't think that's asking too much. You can change your mind and your site as often as you like, but you have to realize that the more you do so, the harder it is to take any particular claim as gospel. Fester   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 10:02 PM (EST) 48. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 10:11 PM (EST) I'm not sure I see the issue here, but let me start by saying I've barely had time to follow my own website this season, never mind anyone elses. That said, the two ideas seem pretty simple here: 1) TDT is explaining his site is a kinda like "stream of conscienceness" type of thing -- it's continually changing based on what he discovers right up to the moment the show starts. It sounds kinda like a blog, only unlike a blog, it doesn't sound like all the "historical" entries are always there, instead it sounds like the same "entry" is just edited and re-edited (at least that's the impression I got from the above -- again, unfortunately I personally don't have the time to visit his site and experience this personally.) 2) Fester is explaining that unlike maybe TDT himself and some of his frequent visitors, Joe Websurfer doesn't necessarily check TDT's site on an daily, hourly, etc. basis and in many cases probably end up looking at the predictions AFTER the show airs in an attempt to gauge the historical accuracy of TDT's spoiler information. And in that process, they might get an inaccurate impression that TDT has always "been on top of things" ALL ALONG (and have no idea that the final correct selection might have only been "determined" only after Snewser, PT, etc. posted something, etc.) Both these points seem pretty simple to me, I'm not sure what the debate is about... -SB   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 08:44 PM (EST) 20. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" Well, Fester, my reply on the "record for the season" rebuttal would be that spoiling/spec is by its nature hit or miss except when you find a reliable source for a piece of information. When you get a piece of true information, at any point of the game, that has nothing to do with your spoiling record as its a whole different animal. None of these guys, Snewser, Paratrooper, or TDT, has had a source for every episode this season. Sources give you a gift from time to time, is my understanding... although I've never had the luck myself. Clearly a source gave TDT this particular gem, who knows who or why it is. Otherwise TDT would hedge the announcement, just like Snewser generally does when he's not 100% confident. So maybe this is only 99% trustworthy and a teeny bit of a gamble. But I also know TDT well enough (although not really well like AyaK) to take his word for a prediction he says is solid. And yeah, I wanted to see Clay booted this week too. OTOH, I did NOT want to see Jan win. So I could be more unhappy than with this combo. Probably the best argument that Jan doesn't win is that EPM surely got a ton of feedback that fans don't want to see another finalist win without his giving us a clue of a strategy better than riding along UTR, like Vee and MamaKim. I would HOPE he would give us SOMETHING from Jan by this point to make us accept her win, and he has not done so. With both Clay and Brian, we are well aware they are playing the game very cleverly. Like em or not, they are good players. And BOTH of them have shone in recent challenges, another quality we like to see in the winners. I would have liked to see Jake or Helen win more, but at least these two have more personality than either Ted or Jan. So anyway, I at least am going with this spoiler unless TDT announces he learns it is wrong. Mostly because Shakes always knew it was going to work out for Clay. So there we have it.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 09:04 PM (EST) 22. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" >Probably the best argument that Jan >doesn't win is that EPM >surely got a ton of >feedback that fans don't want >to see another finalist win >without his giving us a >clue of a strategy better >than riding along UTR, like >Vee and MamaKim. I >would HOPE he would give >us SOMETHING from Jan by >this point to make us >accept her win, and he >has not done so. > That argument assumes that EPM cares. He doesn't. It all comes down to what makes good TV, basically. MamaKim did not make for good TV period, and Vee successfully played a UTR strategy for most of the game. I don't think Jan will win this thing, but she could possibly get to the F2 if all the active players concentrate on targetting the other active players. Let's hope not. >I would have liked to see >Jake or Helen win more, >but at least these two >have more personality than either >Ted or Jan. > Well, but Jan is a bit of a character at least. I would prefer a Helen win at this point, actually, which makes it the least likely outcome. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 09:57 PM (EST) 25. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" Well dabo, I agree with you that EPM wants "good TV" above all else, but I disagree that he can be ignorant about what viewers like and dislike about the editing. By definition, "good TV" is nothing but pleasing the viewers. There was a huge amount of outcry about not showing more of Vee, no matter how UTR she played it. When she won, many viewers were extremely pissed off that the winner got so little face time, and I'm sure MB heard about it. When viewers say that they liked S4 but the ending turned them off to the series, I'm sure someone at CBS pays attention. Jan is certainly a character, but we are not really seeing her as a player, and it may be that MB is keeping her in the dark a bit so we will think she has something going on when she doesn't. I think Jan got lucky with the SJ losing streak and she has been riding that luck until the majority of CG terminates her. No one wants her with them in the Final 2 because the SJ people all liked Jan in the time they spent with her and she's been kind to everybody. I really think she would have to pull a big-time immunity run to get there, UNLESS she, Ted, and Helen woke up and smelled the coffee and ditched Clay and Brian both. But that's not going to happen. Ted would have to jump ship, and right now Ted is promised Final 2 and at worst 3. Once Jake is gone it will really be too late for Helen and Jan to swing the game in a different direction other than through winning IC. Men against women has been the CG theme throughout. It seems the men win. "If we knew today what we knew yesterday, we couldn't give it away"--Aimee Mann   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 07:00 AM (EST) 28. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" I have to agree with OFG here. EPM has two audiences: the non-spoiling audience, and the spoiler audience. He couldn't care less if us spoilers died and rotted in Hades, but he does care about that (very large) non-spoiler audience, and has to keep them from turning to Friends after Episode 2. The non-spoiler, as well as the spoiler audience, was more than a bit displeased at Vee's UTR-until-she-won presentation. EPM *will* be sensitive to that non-spoiler audience. Hence, we've seen a lot more alliance-building, backstabbing, sniping, and general gameplay than we saw last season. P.S. More generally, I've been going to TDT's site ever since I learned about it. TDT normally analyzes pics, but in the case of Brian/Clay, TDT clearly said he has "learned" of the Final 2. That's not analysis, that's being educated. I tend to believe it, certainly as much as I believe SNewser, and much more than I believe Paratrooper's assertion that an SJ will win the whole enchilada. "All of us necessarily hold many casual opinions that are ludicrously wrong simply because life is far too short for us to think through even a small fraction of the topics that we come across. -- Julian Simon Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 09:12 AM (EST) 29. "Let Me Clarify" I'm not saying that EPM wouldn't pay any attention to the complaints about Vee's hidden winner status, of course he would pay some attention to those sorts of things. But if complainers keep tuning in then the bottom line there is that they keep tuning in. As for making good TV, that does not go to giving viewers (especially spoilers, totally agree with Dawg about this) what they want. That goes to making the best out of the material available, nothing else. Granted, there was some good Vecepia material that wasn't seen during S4 which perhaps could have been seen, and maybe EPM (make that probably) learned his lesson there. But the flip side of that is that the MamaKim we saw in S3 was perhaps the best way she could have been edited, since she (no personal digs here or anything) just didn't really make for good TV. It goes to the material available first, that's my point. That said, there may well be some excellent Jan material that we haven't seen, since she is something of a character, but basically I think we've been given the most pertinent material about her: she has no real game. She is a likable lush, however. "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 10:52 AM (EST) 33. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" When you get a piece of true information, at any point of the game, that has nothing to do with your spoiling record as its a whole different animal. I understand the difference between spec and inside info. My whole point on that was that TDT's been behind the curve this season. He's been speculating, for the most part, while Snewser and Paratrooper have been getting the scoop. Now TDT gets the scoop of the season, and he tucks it away? If it were me, I'd plaster it across the main page...in BIG BLOCK LETTERS. That's all I'm sayin'. And yeah, I wanted to see Clay booted this week too. OTOH, I did NOT want to see Jan win. So I could be more unhappy than with this combo. Personally, I don't care who wins this thing. None of these folks are appealing to me. IMO, this has been, hands down, the worst cast ever. I know that Africa is everyone's favorite whipping-boy, but Africa was 10X better than this crapola season. Clay, Brian, Helen, whoever. Doesn't matter to me in the slightest who wins. It just seemed to me that Clay has been set up, in classic MB fashion, to be the next to go. With both Clay and Brian, we are well aware they are playing the game very cleverly. Like em or not, they are good players. And BOTH of them have shone in recent challenges, another quality we like to see in the winners. Agreed that Clay and Brian have been playing *mostly* well. Their toughest work is ahead of them, though. If they truly make it to the F2, then I'll be a whole lot more impressed with them than I am right now. Fester   Top

jsanb 178 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-04-02, 12:41 PM (EST) 44. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" Fester, I agree 100%. The players are boring compared to S3, and the editing has been gawd- awful. We have seen so little in scheming conversations and alliance building amd plotting that this is BY FAR the worst Survivor. I am hoping that SOME scheming takes place in the endgame, but I ain't holding my breath. Peanut Butter Jeff "If you thought S3 was bad just wait until S5."   Top

TDT 13 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-03-02, 09:12 PM (EST) 23. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" It's not spec, Fester.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 09:41 PM (EST) 24. "RE: The Devil's Advocate" *waves at TDT* Once again, congratulations on pulling off the scoop of the season! Not that this lessens my respect for all the other fine fine spoiling done by so many this season...   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 10:38 AM (EST) 32. "My Apologies" TDT, OK, I guess I'll be drinking the Kool-Aid with everyone else. I just wanted to air the thing out a bit. I'm just a skeptic by nature, but can you blame me? When these kind of spoilers get posted without anything except the barest of details, it would be foolish to take them at face value and not question them a bit. That's all I was attempting to do with my post above. But if it's a certainty, then it's a certainty. I just wish you, Snewser, et al. would give us a little more to work with. I know that's not likely to happen, but a guy can dream, can't he? Congrats on the find. Now if you'll excuse me, I have a crow brunch waiting for me... Fester   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-03-02, 07:51 PM (EST) 16. "so, does this mean I was right?" http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=2994&forum=DCForumID2&archive=yes ..see, there's a reason I haven't wasted my time spoiling in the past month and a half, cause I had this figured out after the first ep   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 08:31 PM (EST) 18. "RE: so, does this mean I was right?" Yep, Clay had his "diamond in the rough" confessional in ep 1. And Brian had his "business trip" confessional in ep 1. They both obviously showed up to play the game. After they get rid of Jake they'll probably try to take Helen and Jan out of the running (rather than allow them to reach the endurance challenge which a woman usually wins). So, it really is a question of whether the other three CG will wake up to what they're doing, which seems unlikely. Helen probably wants to get to F2 with Brian, thinking he has money so she would "deserve" the win in that situation. Ted believes he is good with Brian and Clay to the F3 where it will simply be a matter of who wins the final immunity, so he is very unlikely to bolt. Jan, who knows? At this point it seems like her only chance is to MamaKim the final immunities, which would be as big a surprise as when MamaKim did it. At least Penny isn't in the running! If Jake wins immunity this time the CG most likely to be ousted, in my humble opinion: Helen. She's been a pretty good player, is a much greater challenge threat than Jan, and it would be a mistake for Brian and Clay to dump loyal followers at this point. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 12-03-02, 08:41 PM (EST) 19. "RE: so, does this mean I was right?" >..see, there's a reason I haven't wasted my time spoiling in the past >month and a half, cause I had this figured out after the first ep I thought it was because you'd finally gotten your BIG break, and were just too busy filming the epic, Crouching Bozo, Hidden Seltzer. Never thought I'd say this (in a MILLION years), but this news has me actually looking back fondly at The Good Old Days--this duo makes Dique actually look GOOD! GT *going to wash off the grime now* I think I shall now be sick.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-03-02, 09:00 PM (EST) 21. "RE: so, does this mean I was right?" shakes, I'd love to taunt you about how nice to see you back doing what you do best--GLOATING--but dammit you're right. Nice call. Not that I didn't agree that was a significant confessional, but I wasn't sure that the "Tom" of this season would make it past Final 4. I always thought he would get at least that far. Now the big surprise would be if Clay's courting of Penny and Erin pays off with a win, because Brian sure is going to lose Ted's vote if Brian does the old backstab. OTOH, if Brian, Ted, and Clay were to end up Final 3, and Clay won immunity and took Brian, Ted would have no complaint against Brian--unless Brian pulled a Vee/Dicque on him and threw the challenge. If we knew today what shakes knew yesterday...   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 11:08 AM (EST) 35. "Good points" Yeah, this gives us the final 2, but not the logic that gets us there ... so it's not possible to conclude for certain which of these two will be the winner. Anyway, my congratulations again to TDT ... and welcome to the boards to TDT, too! Also, my congratulations to shakes for actually putting his media-whore background to good use for spoiling.   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-03-02, 11:10 PM (EST) 26. "Ivory Elephant, too" Since TDT came in to say it's not spec, that's good enough for me! (Disappointing, because I don't like Brian, but cool because I guess this means Clay's going to win). And props to Ivory Elephant, who weirdly likes all the old women on the show, but picked Clay to win from the get-go as well, and even included it in his signature line.   Top

Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 10:04 AM (EST) 31. "RE: so, does this mean I was right?" *sigh* There's nothing more insufferable than a clown who's been vindicated. The Chamber of Secrets Has Been Opened. Enemies of the Heir... Beware!   Top

anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 12:56 PM (EST) 45. "RE: so, does this mean I was right?" **swoons** all that and a spinning head, too. What a DAW man. I bought into that theory when it was first tosed about. No matter how annoying the two are, they are still calling the shots. Period. Miscellaneous Ramblings   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-04-02, 09:50 AM (EST) 30. "Why MB revealed strategies..." Perhaps it is a combination of what everyone is saying, but it is all "proactive" rather than "reactive". Meaning that after filming was done, MB said "Ok, lets try to edit this to hide the winners, our tradition which makes for good suspense." Joe cameraman says, "Marky, uh, I was out there this whole season and let me tell you, you got one interesting story line and IT IS the strategy and scheming of the winners." So MB's choice is to hide the winners' scheming and show us an extra boring season, orrrr, just give us the storyline, he brings this up at a meeting: Joe meetingman says, "Marky, Titanic was a blockbuster movie and everyone knew the ending." So MB says, hell ya, lets do it. Give it to them "TRUE", those spoiler "DORKS" can't figure out 2 "TIMES" 2. That's my static.   Top

barrymore 42 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-04-02, 11:54 AM (EST) 37. "RE: Brian/Clay/Ted" I read somewhere (and I will try to find the source that Brian has final 2 deals with everyone. Part of this strategy is to lose the final immunity challenge and have the other survivor choose him to go to the finals. This way he doesn't insult anyone or lose anyones vote. Has a winner of the final immunty every won survivor??? I don't believe so.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 11:59 AM (EST) 39. "You are correct!" As you suspect, barrymore, no winner of the final challenge has ever won. In fact, only once (in S4) has the person booted ever voted for the booter. S1: final IC winner: Kelly; vote winner: Richard, 4-3; Rudy's vote: Richard. S2: final IC winner: Colby; vote winner: Tina, 4-3; Keith's vote: Tina. S3: final IC winner: Kim J.; vote winner: Ethan, 5-2; Lex's vote: Ethan. S4: final IC winner: Neleh; vote winner: Vecepia, 4-3; Kathy's vote: Neleh.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-06-02, 12:32 PM (EST) 56. "RE: You are correct!" >In fact, >only once (in S4) has >the person booted ever voted >for the booter. ...and only because Vee's betrayal was far more severe than Neleh's vote against Kathy. You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 12:00 PM (EST) 40. "RE: Brian/Clay/Ted" LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 12:01 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 12-04-02 AT 12:00 PM (EST) edited again since our dear AyaK beat me to it * contentedly staring at blue men's asses *   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 12:35 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Brian/Clay/Ted" >>Part of this strategy is to lose the final immunity challenge and have the other survivor choose him to go to the finals.<< Yes, this is where we will finally get to see Brian's acting chops.   Top

Helenwins 14 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-05-02, 01:13 AM (EST) 49. "RE: Final Two per TDT" Brian and Clay in final two - makes sense when you look at episode titled "When the cats are away". Brian and Clay are the cats!   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 12-05-02, 05:41 PM (EST) 51. "RE: Final Two per TDT" Bottom line is comparing speculation and information learned are like comparing apples and oranges. I could try SPECULATE as I do who I think the final two would be based on other people's opinions, my dislikes and likes, past editing, etc OR I could LEARN the winner by a source who has reliable information. I could try and SPOIL the show by SPECULATION or information LEARNED. Clay vs. Brian? Well based on my "speculation" is very plausible; they both played the hardest, their book covers are quite different then their contents, are extremely strategic and IMO played great. Does MB care who we want to win? No, so he edits based on his perceptions of how he wants the show to progress. Stating Clay vs. Brian is impossible based on editing and the like can't be done because we don't KNOW how MB is editing this season but one reason I SPECULATED they could go far is because of the Vee debacle last year. Perhaps MB wants to edit the winners where we see what is going on. However I am SPECULATING TDT LEARNED something and due to that, he is SPOILING and not based on SPECULATION. The bottom line here is use the information as you wish. TDT is reputable and to put I LEARNED knowing that the naysayers will have a field day with this is something TDT decided to post because TDT feels the information LEARNED is accurate and very plausible. Don't confuse speculation with concrete information. But to further confirm MY SPECULATION that TDT's LEARNED INFORMATION is valid: "Clay and Brian, you chose each others as partners in the beginning, you have supported each other along the way, you must now compete against each other..." Jeff Probst If that ain't a bit of foreshadowing........??   Top

Helenwins 14 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-06-02, 01:26 AM (EST) 53. "RE: Final Two per TDT" Could it be that MB is dumb enough to pull another "Vee" and Jan wins?   Top

brwgrl 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 12-06-02, 09:58 AM (EST) 54. "New final two clip in opening credits?" I'm new to this and have been a lurker so please be gentle. I was watching the opening credits last night and swear I saw a clip with 1 or 2 figures walking toward the camera. I couldn't tell who they were because they had been altered with the fire symbolism thing. It was a very short clip right after all of the survivor images. I didn't tape it last night so I couldn't go back and look for it. Did anybody else see this? brwgrl (who's waiting for the comments about the beer goggles and such blurring my vision)   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-06-02, 12:27 PM (EST) 55. "One more BIG thank you" Thanks to OFG for bringing this find of TDT's so prominently to our attention!!!! So far, so good...   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-10-02, 03:02 AM (EST) 57. "big idiot's 'Third Perspective'" This is cut and pasted from big idiot's thread which was locked as a duplicate topic: Unsure if you believe the TDT spoiler? This is for you. Perspective #1: It is true. Perspective #2: It is not. (aka: It is probably true, but I don't want to believe it) I believe that TDT has communicated with a source that has provided substantiating evidence to back up their claim. I imagine that TDT gets approached by lots of False Messiahs, so this one obviously provided solid proof. There are two types of sources that could provide solid proof: A) Someone who speaks the truth from a legit position of access to information (inside leak or loose-lipped friend/family). B) Someone who does NOT speak the truth but still comes from a legit position of access to information (MB-approved misdirection or informed person on false spoiler joy ride) So Source A = Perspective #1 and Source B = Perspective #2 The problem with Perspective #1 is what I am seeing all throughout the threads, people are retrofitting Brian's plan/thinking to get him in the F2 with Clay. I believe that Brian may HOPE for being in F2 with Clay, but it will probably involve a balance of luck and scheming (e.g.; Clay getting immunity at crucial times). The problem with Perspective #2 is ignoring the utility of the information, regardless if it is true or not. There must be a reason for the source to tell us these two, even if it turns out false. So...Perspective #3: The source knows that Brian and Clay are in the Final Four. This does not contradict perspective #1 or #2. This should be a "duh" conclusion for many reasons, but my major point is the way to best utilize this spoiler is to keep it short-sighted and ONLY relevant to Episode 12. Therefore, I feel that the safest assumption is that neither Clay nor Brian is voted out in Ep 12. Focus your speculation on Clay being safe for Ep 12; by luck? by legerdemain? or by both? What events can transpire to keep Clay in the game for 3 more days? Don't fret beyond that until after Thursday. I offer this third perspective as a "Therapeutic Option" for those who are undecided on the TDT spoiler. I hope it helps someone else beside me. BI   Top

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