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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Another week, another chance to use someone else's logic writeup to explain this week's official selection. This week's writeup is "courtesy" (meaning grabbed without his knowledge or permission) Krautboy:

No Immunity for SookJai:

The IC this week, much like the coconut challenge favors the tribe that has the numbers in their favor. A Chuay Gahn will win. No immunity for Jake or Penny

We have Jake’s comment about “the fat lady singing”, apparently after TC…neither Jake or Ted are wearing the IN. Jakes comment confirms that it’s between him and Penny, but he thinks he still has a chance…he knows something.

Penny was Mocked:

Last week we saw the Chuay Gahn waiting for the Sook Jai group to return from TC. We were shown Brian mocking Ken and Jan and Helen mocking Penny. The Chuay Gahn were making fun of their prime targets. Ken went last week. Penny remains as their prime target this week.

We’ve seen Penny kissing up to Helen and Jan, but they did not trust her sincerity. The two women mocking Penny confirmed it. Penny has no alliance with Jan or Helen. That was her only chance.

Brian/Jake made a deal:

Jake and Brian were shown spending time together in the boat, away from the others, getting to know one another. Brian is on “a business trip”. Jake is a “good ‘ol boy” land broker. They both know how to negotiate a deal and no doubt have. There’s also good evidence that Brian and Jake may spend time together on the RC. Brian controls the alliances right now. Brian will choose to keep Jake over Penny.

Editing:

The editing last week tried to hide Penny. She disappeared in an attempt to have us forget about her as a target. Jake was pushed to the spotlight as an irritating braggard. Based on Ken’s comments, who like Jake’s stories, this was classic misdirection. Jake is safe, Penny is not.

Promos:

This week we see Penny featured at the IC, without a snuffer in her hand. She is shown with a nervous giggle as she loses out on Immunity. She is also shown standing with Ted, while the RC winners are gone, probably trying to stir things up “while the cat’s away”.

Penny disappeared last week only to become the focus this week…because it’s her last.

There seems to be little doubt the pagonging will continue, unlike last season, leading up to this episode there have been none of the tell-tale signs of a "rebel revolt" -- last season's non-pagonging was an abnormality created as a result of the so-called dominant alliance's poor math skills and anvil-like subtlety skills and it's not likely to be repeated again so soon.

Either Jake or Penny will go. I don't believe the vidcap of Peny and Ted is of them pictured with the "Final Four" torches, therfore based on the logic explained above and more, PENNY makes more sense -- PENNY is our pick and runner-up JAKE takes the alternative slot.

As far the the Reward Challenge goes, I believe that the elephant ride vidcaps I posted show Brian or Clay winning the RC. We have one of the two people on the elephant wearing a hat. And we have a teaser that suggests a "friend" is upset by the choice. No one would care who Clay picked. So Brian picks Clay or Jake and Ted gets upset. BRIAN is the Reward Challenge winner.

As far as the immunity challenge goes, as stated earlier, with their collective 5-2 snuffing advantage, this is clearly going to be determined by who the Chuay's WANT TO NOT WIN. Penny is out. Jake is out. Clay will probably be next ("sorry Clay you won last time...") Brian may follow ("sorry Brian, you already won your video...") Helen, Jan, and Ted would seem to be the favorites to win a challenge that, assuming the Chuay alliance is as tight as it seems, is likely to be viewed with a bit of indifference. A Jan victory is the most likely explanation for her actions. JAN seems just as good a pick for the Immunity Winner as any other Chuay.

-SB