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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 09:48 AM (EST) "RC Winner Poll" This is essentially a voting thread for you to state who you think will win the Reward Challenge. However, since this week's RC seems to include a tagalong invitee to the reward feast, you can also vote for who you think will be the tagalong. Cast your votes by stating in the subject line of your reply: Winner/Tagalong For example, if you think Clay wins the RC and brings along Penny as his tagalong, your subject line should read: Clay/Penny Feel free to say why you are voting however you are voting.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Helen/Jan samboohoo 11-20-02 1  Brian/Clay big idiot 11-20-02 2    RE: Brian/Clay, I think so too toddE 11-20-02 4    RE: Brian/Clay ceedee 11-22-02 20        BI thanks ceedee big idiot 11-22-02 21  Clay/Ted Q 11-20-02 3  Brian/Jake MarquesanHunter 11-20-02 5  Ted/Jake blacknwhitedog 11-20-02 6  Clay/Brian managerr 11-20-02 7  Brain/Jake Krautboy 11-20-02 8  Clay/Ted FesterFan1 11-20-02 9  Jake/Brian Devious Weasel 11-20-02 10  Penny/Jake...or Ted/Clay Sappy vs.... TribalTex29 11-20-02 11  Jake/Helen dabo 11-20-02 12  Brian/Jake Brownroach 11-20-02 13  Brian/Clay cowboyroo 11-20-02 14  Ted/Clay BaquaR13 11-20-02 15  Ted/Clay SteffiGurl 11-21-02 16  Brian/Jan Yogi 11-21-02 17  Clay/Ted Draco Malfoy 11-21-02 18  Tally dabo 11-21-02 19

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samboohoo 17173 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 10:40 AM (EST) 1. "Helen/Jan" LAST EDITED ON 11-20-02 AT 10:42 AM (EST) Going to start with reasons I think the others won't win: Brian: Realized his stupidity of winning last week. Doesn't want to appear to greedy by winning a bunch of rewards. Ted: Originally I thought he might win, but I think the shot of him and Penny with the 4 torches is from Ep. 10 (based on Monday's commercial). They are reacting to the 2 coming back from their elephant ride. The other torches are just out of site. Penny: See Ted. Plus her "Oh My Heck Jan: She takes a tumble knocking her out of contention. Oh wait, this is Jan -- no competition. Jake: Trying so hard to win alliances that he fails to win the challenge. Clay: Just hoping he doesn't win since I've picked Helen. Also, I think that Clay likes to stir the pot, and he needs to be at camp to do so. Plus, the TV Guide preview hints at someone's feelings being hurt. In light of Clay and Helen's newfound affection, maybe he's the one with hurt feelings. Also see Cats Away/Mice Play comment below. Also, video caps seem to show two people about the same size, one with a hat and blue shirt and one with a black shirt. Jan has the hat, blue shirt and overalls. Helen has the black shirt. Helen uses this opportunity to reaffirm some kind of alliance with Jan. And while the cats are away (Helen and Jan), the mice will play (Clay, Ted and Brian). Remember early on when Jan and Helen went to get water, then men played a little golf. In the women's eyes, the men are always playing. As far as the suspicious gift, Jan seems most likely to bring something back for everyone being the sweet, caring individual that she is. The suspicious part is probably just misdirection. Sorry to ramble on, I just had to organize my thoughts.   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-20-02, 10:44 AM (EST) 2. "Brian/Clay" Great post Dabo, I'm up in the air about this so I'd love to read others' reasonings. Anyway, here is mine: Vidcap observations: 1) Elephant rider on right side is taller than rider on left (camera proximity/angle taken into account) so riders are not of equal height, this helps only to eliminate certain combos and force candidates to fit this requirement. 2) Arm of right rider appears to be light-skinned, so probably not Ted, this forces right rider to equal Brian or Jake. 3) Rider on left has hokey hat. Candidates include (of shorter stature candidates): Jan, Clay, Penny. (basically, everyone has a damn hokey hat). 4) RC vidcap shows Ted, Brian, Clay and Penny as possible final four in challenge, with Penny lagging. Winner choices would be Ted, Brian, Clay. Ted's large size should impede him, reducing winner pool to Brian or Clay. Brian has already won an obstacle course challenge so slight favor to him. Synopsis: Brian wins RC, who does he bring? Two ways to choose partner: 1) whoever came in second 2) someone you are allied with or want to ally with. Clay may fit #1 and somewhat fits #2. Brian may be smart enough to base it more on #1 if Clay finishes second, although he may bring Clay because he is in the "Boys' Club" and not want to reveal the tighter alliance with Ted. He also may be concerned that Clay tested him last week by suggesting a Ted boot to see if there is a sub-alliance there. Brian is definitely smart enough not to bring Penny (I pray), and really no reason to bring Jan. Ted, aka "Mr Urge-Follower", overlooks the strategy of taking Clay and feels a bit dissed by a friend/ally (preview statement of "hurt friend", and vidcaps of bummed Ted). Traditionally, these get-a-ways have left from camp, not from the RC site, so this means clothing could have been changed after the RC and before the elephant riding and may not assist in deductions (meaning can't match RC clothing to elephant riders' clothing). Ack, I'm VERY interested in alternative theories though...   Top

toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 11-20-02, 03:44 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Brian/Clay, I think so too" Ted might win, because it looks like a big guy on the elephant, but I just can't see Brian being mad. So it has to be Jake, who makes Penny mad, or Brian, who makes Ted mad. So I agree that it's Brian, and Clay's hat is supposedly visible, and it all comes together.   Top

ceedee 183 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-22-02, 00:37 AM (EST) 20. "RE: Brian/Clay" Wow! - I always like to go back and review some of the analysis after its over to see who was on track, and what they based it on - whooooeee are you looking brilliant, in hindsight - (kneel and bow in homage!).   Top

big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 11-22-02, 11:06 AM (EST) 21. "BI thanks ceedee" thanks for your kind words : )   Top

Q 2569 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 11-20-02, 03:35 PM (EST) 3. "Clay/Ted" I retyped my choices about twenty times before scrapping all of them and choosing to follow others advice from around the web. We shall see if it pans out. I think Clay will win and take Ted to "make it up" to him for the SJs voting for him last week, due to his/(and Helens) prodding. Will it work, who knows. Never Let Them See You Bleed   Top

MarquesanHunter 37 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 11-20-02, 04:18 PM (EST) 5. "Brian/Jake" Brian will win the RC and take Jake with him. MH   Top

blacknwhitedog 6532 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 04:23 PM (EST) 6. "Ted/Jake" Because of TV Guide listing: Episode 10 - While the Cats Are Away TV Guide: "One contestant wins a trip to the mainland and offends a friend by choosing someone else as a traveling companion." I think Ted wins and takes Jake. I think Ted is the blue shirt and Jake is the one with the hat on the elephant. blacknwhitedog It's just a show, I should really just relax...mst3k   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 11-20-02, 04:46 PM (EST) 7. "Clay/Brian" It makes sense that the "mice would play" while Brian is gone. Ted gets offended because he thought he was closer to Clay than Brian was. (And because Ted thinks he's universally liked)   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 11-20-02, 04:49 PM (EST) 8. "Brain/Jake" We have vidcap evidence that I believe shows Brian or Clay winning the RC. We have one of the two peolpe on the elephant wearing a hat. And we have a teaser that suggests a "friend" is upset by the choice. No one would care who Clay picked. So Brian picks Clay or Jake and Ted gets upset. Brian would select Jake to conceal his alliances and keep him from plotting while he's gone... Krautboy   Top

FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 04:56 PM (EST) 9. "Clay/Ted" The visual evidence, to my eye at least, suggest that it's Clay and Ted on the elephant. It would make sense if the vidcaps Ted/Clay/Penny/Brian are from the final heat of the RC. There are 2 reasons why I think Clay wins. 1) In a challenge that rewards both balance and a lack of size, Clay's got as good a shot as anyone. He's small enough to get through the crawling stage and compact enough to have decent balance. Ted's big and his center of gravity works against him in a balance challenge. 2) There is this teaser quote regarding E10: "One tribe member preys on the fears of another in an attempt to gain votes and become the Sole Survivor." Clay wins and doesn't take Brian, which probably ticks him off because he won't like that Clay and Ted will get time together to compare notes. However, Clay's motivation for picking Ted will be to focus Ted's paranoia elsewhere. He can do this effectively if they have substantial one on one time. Fester   Top

Devious Weasel 18756 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 05:34 PM (EST) 10. "Jake/Brian" Jake/Brian I think Jake wins RC, takes Brian. It has to be one of these two who goes, or else the title doesn’t fit. And, despite what people may argue, the title always fits, even if its an uncomfortable fit. Jake and Brian are the only “Cats” around, plus, it certainly seems like the sort of phrase Clay would say after Jake and Brian left. That leaves Penny as the “upset friend,” a notion a lot of people seem to have a problem with. Personally, I don’t buy the argument that Penny wouldn’t be upset. Here’s why: First, she knows the odds are against her and Jake winning, so all they have left are winning rewards. So, if Jake takes someone else, there goes that. Second, if Jake takes Brian, then Penny is automatically going to be thinking he did so in order to strike a deal to prolong Jake’s stay on the island. Jake may later tell her he was trying to save them both, and maybe this would mollify her, but because of the timing of it she doesn’t hear those words from him until he returns from the challenge.   Top

TribalTex29 63 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 11-20-02, 05:57 PM (EST) 11. "Penny/Jake...or Ted/Clay Sappy vs. Africa" It seems to me that the two who are on their last footings would have a go-out blast in the end, and reflect sadly on their fallen tribe members. Plus, if Jake wins and takes Penny, it will be reminscent and highly similar to the Paschal/Neleh cruise, and we can all say, 'Wow', this was just like last year with the Paschal/Neleh cruise.' End of story. You're screwed if you try to take someone out of strategy, as it will only be obvious to the ones sitting back. If it's more like the Africa reward, then I say Ted takes Clay. (Referring to how Lex took Tom) That way he bolsters his relationship with Clay, and it will be a feeble attempt to make his alliance with Brian un-obvious.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 06:19 PM (EST) 12. "Jake/Helen" Just the impression I got from the animated elephant-riding shots. ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-20-02, 06:32 PM (EST) 13. "Brian/Jake" What Krautboy said. Brian should have learned his lesson about winning RC last week, but I'm afraid Porn Boy may not be as clever as we thought. By keeping his options open with everyone, I think his game plan is starting to unravel. He will invite Jake on the reward; Clay or Ted (or both) will be miffed, and Clay will blame Brian for Ted's SJ votes at the last TC and everything will blow up. Hence the CBS Press release about a blatant betrayal that shocks the tribe, and Jeff Probst's latest "hypothetical" comment that Jake COULD get an in IF one Chuay Gahn blurts out too much (both of these finds were just posted by Sweetpea).   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 11-20-02, 07:56 PM (EST) 14. "Brian/Clay" Obstacle course. Brian should be a shoe-in to win. It seems to be another elimination and at the crawl under section, all that are left are Penny, Brian, Ted and Clay. Competitive Brian will go for it (yet another example of sometimes winning challenges is not good). We've seen him in F2 pacts with Ted and Clay. He chooses one of them for the trip. Ted would more likely get upset if he doesn't go, but Clay would more likely plot if he didn't go so keep Clay out of the cookie jar and bring him along.   Top

BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 11-20-02, 07:58 PM (EST) 15. "Ted/Clay" Those two lovebirds make up after the voting mix-up and good ole' Ted brings Clay on the elephant ride. The Reality Show Queens!! BaQuAr13   Top

SteffiGurl 358 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 11-21-02, 01:55 AM (EST) 16. "Ted/Clay" Just making a guess.   Top

Yogi 1206 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 11-21-02, 02:17 AM (EST) 17. "Brian/Jan" I think Brian wins the RC and makes a 'smart' move by taking Jan instead of Clay or Ted. Brian can easily make a good excuse for taking Jan without hurting his position with Clay and Ted.   Top

Draco Malfoy 10525 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-21-02, 07:51 AM (EST) 18. "Clay/Ted" Clay wins and takes Ted with him to cover his butt for trying to get him booted.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 11-21-02, 09:38 AM (EST) 19. "Tally" 18 voters Pairs Brain/Clay: 3 Clay/Ted: 3 Brain/Jake: 3 Ted/Clay: 2.5 Helen/Jan: 1 Ted/Jake: 1 Clay/Brian: 1 Jake/Brian: 1 Jake/Helen: 1 Brian/Jan: 1 Penny/Jake: 0.5 Winner Brian: 7 Clay: 4 Ted: 3.5 Jake: 2 Helen: 1 Penny: 0.5 Tagalong Clay: 5.5 Jake: 4.5 Ted: 3 Jan: 2 Brian: 2 Helen: 1   Top

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