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"Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps"
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-02, 04:16 PM (EST)
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"Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps"

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Closeup of Clay and his IC necklace SurvivorBlows 11-17-02 1
   RE: Closeup of Clay and his IC neck... erikman 11-17-02 2
 RE: Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps Chrissy gal 11-17-02 3
 Penny and Ted left behind? Krautboy 11-17-02 4
   RE: Penny and Ted left behind? KLicK 11-17-02 5
 RE: Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps sleeeve 11-17-02 6
   RE: Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps ZJ 11-19-02 26
 Vidcaps #20-23 are post-IC challeng... SurvivorBlows 11-17-02 7
   No Necklaces... sleeeve 11-17-02 8
       RE: No Necklaces... Krautboy 11-18-02 19
 Closeup of IC figures SurvivorBlows 11-17-02 9
   RE: Closeup of IC figures mistofleas 11-18-02 12
       RE: Closeup of IC figures steppingrazor42 11-18-02 15
           RE: Closeup of IC figures SurvivorBlows 11-18-02 16
 Closeup of the slipping feet and le... SurvivorBlows 11-17-02 10
   It's Jan Rain Crow 11-18-02 13
 Two prelim heats? SurvivorBlows 11-18-02 11
   RE: Two prelim heats? GuessItRains 11-18-02 14
       RE: Two prelim heats? big idiot 11-18-02 17
       RE: Two prelim heats? tribephyl 11-18-02 18
           Brian or Clay win RC? Krautboy 11-18-02 20
               RE: Brian or Clay win RC? big idiot 11-18-02 21
                   RE: Brian or Clay win RC? Loree 11-18-02 22
                       RE: Brian or Clay win RC? Krautboy 11-18-02 24
                   RE: Brian or Clay win RC? SurvivorBlows 11-18-02 23
                       RE: Brian or Clay win RC? PhoenixMons 11-19-02 27
                       RE: Brian or Clay win RC? big idiot 11-19-02 28
               RE: Brian or Clay win RC? tribephyl 11-19-02 25

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-02, 04:32 PM (EST)
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1. "Closeup of Clay and his IC necklace"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-02 AT 04:36 PM (EST)

For what it's worth, here's a couple of cropped closeups of Clay and his necklace:

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erikman 324 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-02, 05:55 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Closeup of Clay and his IC necklace"
i don't get the baby elephant. is that part of the riddle they get before rc? they allready have magilla to feed now this.
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11-17-02, 06:11 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps"
#38 looks like Penny is wearing a shirt we haven't seen before. Maybe she won the RC.
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11-17-02, 06:37 PM (EST)
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4. "Penny and Ted left behind?"
This shot appears at the end of the sequence, after all the elephant riding stuff...probably the day after the RC, after the RC winners are wisked away by helicopter...

Is this the survivor classic, "Here we are eating this mush while they're away having the time of their life eating like kings!"...?

...Or is it footage taken out of sequence and classic MB foreshadowing, just before the tree mail comes, and more like,"Wouldn't it be nice to get some real food, I'm so sick of these noddles!" However, the top Penny is wearing is different than the arriving at RC shot...

...so most likely the the next day after the RC...

Either Brian winning and leaving Ted behind or Jake winning and leaving Penny behind, would fit the CBS Teaser...


Krautboy

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KLicK 316 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-02, 06:43 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Penny and Ted left behind?"
It may be nothing -- but notice that Ted is standing with Jake and Clay is far away from them.

Tina said to watch who people stand by -- maybe that could give us a clue as to who is "miffed."

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11-17-02, 06:49 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps"
LAST EDITED ON 11-17-02 AT 06:51 PM (EST)

EDIT: just realized we have the audio, here which confirms this...

I haven't seen this commercial yet, so I don't know what the audio actually tells us, but here's my gut reaction:

Vidcaps 5-8 show us two important things... first of all, you can see Clay's immunity necklace (thanks for the enlargements, Webby), so this must be the IC (and the obstacle course is the RC).

Traditionally, when the RC is physical, then the IC will be mental.

Take a look again at vidcaps 5-8... there is a gold bench in the background. This indicates that people will be eliminated throughout the competition.

I believe that this will be the return of the "coconut challenge" that we saw in S4. They will be asked trivia questions, and the survivors that answer them correctly will extinguish the torch of another Survivor. Once all three of each Survivor's torches are extinguished, then that Survivor is eliminated.

So much for new challenges, MB


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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ZJ 137 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-02, 09:51 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Episode 10 Commercial Vidcaps"
These type of challenges like the coconut challenge tells us a lot into tribal dynamics and could cause fractures in the CG alliance. I certainly think these challenges are good. I prefer them to new challenges
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-02, 08:44 PM (EST)
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7. "Vidcaps #20-23 are post-IC challenge"
Ted and Jake clearly seem to be wearing the same clothing as during the IC challenge:




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11-17-02, 08:47 PM (EST)
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8. "No Necklaces..."
Jake and Ted are not wearing a necklace... if this is indeed post-IC, then can we rule them out of winning immunity?


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 06:08 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: No Necklaces..."
It's probably a moot point anyway, since Jake and Ted would be prime targets in the IC regardless, but could these "night vision" shots be DURING the IC? For example, if Jake had two torches already snuffed out he might say,"it's not over till the fat lady sings", "but I here her warming up" as Ted humms while he gets ready to take his turn, and snuff Jake's last torch...

Not sure if the lighting at the IC could look the the "night vision" shots or not.

Any ideas?


Krautboy

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-17-02, 08:54 PM (EST)
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9. "Closeup of IC figures"
I don't think these are of any use, but here they are. If you compare the clothing they seem to be Jan and maybe Clay (although the build looks more like Brian.)

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11-18-02, 11:52 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Closeup of IC figures"

I belive this is Jan and Brian. Though Brian and Clay are wearing similar color clothing, Clay his his shirt tucked in and Brians is hanging out like in the above photo.



--would like to give webby a squeeze for these photos

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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 02:19 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Closeup of IC figures"
So if we have post IC shots of Jake and Ted without the necklace and can make out Jan and Brian on the sidelines seemingly because they're out of the running for the necklace, that leaves Penny, Clay, and Helen as possible IC winners. I'm betting on Penny this week.
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11-18-02, 02:37 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Closeup of IC figures"
LAST EDITED ON 11-18-02 AT 02:38 PM (EST)

>make out Jan and Brian on the sidelines seemingly because
>they're out of the running for the necklace,

I don't think they are standing there out of the running -- it looks to me like they are both stnding in front of their grouping of three still-lit torches and holding some kind of letter or number

(it's already been speculated that this is like last season's Coconut Chop -- which if you remember was a trivia challenge where each survivor held up a board with their answer and if the answer was correct then they got to CHOP one of their fellow survivor's three hanging nets full of coconuts. The idea is that this season the challenge is very much the same, with the only addition being that each survivor stands behind their three torches -- and maybe in some sick, twisted Burnett way they get to make eye contact with the other survivor as they wander up and snuff their torch.)

-SB

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11-17-02, 08:57 PM (EST)
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10. "Closeup of the slipping feet and legs"
I don't know about anyone else, but that doesn't look like leg hair to me -- it looks more like sores and maybe some veins popping through:

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Rain Crow 374 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 12:03 PM (EST)
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13. "It's Jan"
This a repeat from another post, but it should be included here as well.

Here is the vidcap that shows
someone slipping off the course.


Here is Webby's vidcap that proves
it is Jan.

This probably means Jan is at
a disadvantage in the challenge.



"Onward Thru the Fog"

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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 11:27 AM (EST)
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11. "Two prelim heats?"

From the above it clearly looks like the crawl challenge is only designed for 4 survivors at a time -- the above clearly shows (l-r) Ted, Penny, Helen, and Brian.

There are seven survivor's left, so I'd assume this one of the two prelim heats (with this once being a foursome and the other being a threesome.) The other possibility would seem to be that this is the second round after a round of some 2 person heats, but given the extra person that doesn't seem likely.

The question is if this challenge only supports four people at a time, what is the next round -- the top finisher only? The top two finshers?

...and if Jake, Jan, and Clay are in the other heat, would Clay be the favorite to win? ...and would any of them stand a chance versus member of the above foursome?

-SB

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GuessItRains 700 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 02:15 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Two prelim heats?"
Based on the vidcaps I would tend to think it is another two-part challenge, just like the last RC.

In Part 1, there is some sort of balance beam component (and perhaps more). Top4 finishers then move on to the next part which includes the crawl race. Jake, Jan, and Clay get eliminated in the first round, and the other 4 duke it out for the reward.

And since Ted and Helen appear to be leadng, should we assume that neither of them wins?


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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 04:55 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Two prelim heats?"
Guessitrains, I agree with your 2 (if not more) heats. I agree that Jake, Jan and Clay are already eliminated at this point. This agrees with Jan falling, and Clay (if it is him) being on the BACK of the elephant (the winner would be in the front and the honored guest behind).

If my memory is correct I think it is safer to assume that leaders in previews end up being winners. It may not be the case this week but I usually cast my votes for whatever the visual evidence supports (lead in a vidcap then I put as winner in my pool I'm in), most of the time it seems to be true. This has also proven true with tribes/individuals that appear to be cheering/celebrating a victory - more often it is true.

Don't take my word, I've done no analysis, so anyone else that wants to chime in on this please do (but this week could still be an exception to the general trend).

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 05:39 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Two prelim heats?"
Based on the vidcaps I would tend to think it is another two-part challenge, just like the last RC.
In Part 1, there is some sort of balance beam component (and perhaps more). Top4 finishers then move on to the next part which includes the crawl race.

I completely agree. Until you get to... Jake, Jan, and Clay get eliminated in the first round, and the other 4 duke it out for the reward.And since Ted and Helen appear to be leadng, should we assume that neither of them wins?
I believe that Clay is one of the four participating in the "crawl" portion of the RC. From left to right Brian, Clay, Penny, Ted.
From this pic you can make out Clay's hat.


And in this one you can see the stripe on his shorts. Helen's shorts do not have a white stripe. Clay's shorts do.

IMO RC part1: Jan, Jake and Helen are eliminated, and RC part2: Clay and Ted have a lead over Penny and Brian.

As noted before, the leaders in the promos usually win, but their is no law that say's they have to do so. Sometimes the leader in the promos does lose. I can't think of any off-hand. Yet, it can't be a precedent can it? Anyway, if Clay does win RC it would explain the hat I see in the elephant shots.

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11-18-02, 06:44 PM (EST)
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20. "Brian or Clay win RC?"
Tribephyl: You're on a roll!

At this point, we may be looking at the four finalists competing for the reward. Brian, Clay, Penny and Ted.

I believe we also have a picture of Ted and Penny in camp on Day 29 (the day of the Reward Trip).

So, I would conclude that the winner is either Brian or Clay.

Brian winning and not taking Ted fits the CBS Teaser.

Either Clay or Jake could be the person wearing a hat, pictured riding on the Elephant.


Krautboy

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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 07:25 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
Krautboy,

If I was Clay and I won I would sit in the Front on the elephant because:
1) Better view for anyone
2) Much better view if you are shorter
3) Heck, I won, I'm in front.

Yet the "hat person" is in the back, would this indicate that perhaps Clay did not win?

Also, there is a significant height difference between the riders, if Jake is in the back, then I wonder if only Ted could be someone to create that kind of height margin with Jake.

Overall, if the picture of Ted and Penny is at camp signifies they don't win, then perhaps that leads toward a Brian win?

If the helicopter is picking up the victor + guest at the site of the RC, then perhaps only Clay could be on the back of the elephant because I think he is the only one that showed up at RC with a hat (i think).

But in the past, haven't helicopter pick ups been made at camp, so Ted could still be a contender for the front of the elephant?

Ack, and if they are leaving from camp then any hat-wearing yazoo could be in back (and most seem to have some hokey hat).

Just some thoughts, all welcome to prop up or smack down.

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11-18-02, 07:47 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
Would Brian really be dumb enough to want to win another RC right away? I would think he would not want to win. It will cause resentment plus he would be away from camp where everyone would be conspiring. I don't think Brian is that dumb. His strategy should be to let someone else win.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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11-18-02, 08:23 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
Brian has a strong ego and may think it's better for him to win, and conceal his many alliances by selecting someone with whom he has none. He may not want to risk someone else winning and making a poor choice that reveals something he would prefer to remain hidden...


Krautboy

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11-18-02, 08:21 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
...maybe it's just me, but I was thinking that the two people on the elephant were sitting side-by-side -- not one behind the other (elephants are pretty wide, we're not exactly talking a horse here, look at theat platform below)

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11-19-02, 03:09 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
I agree...I was wondering where everyone was getting the idea that one was in front and one was in back because it sure looks like they're side-by-side to me. And I still say the elephant pic is of Helen and Clay.

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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-02, 06:39 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
SB, good eye, I agree and change my mind - they are not sitting front-to-back. So clay could be the winner. Looking at your animated gif also convinced me that the larger person is not Ted, the arm does not look dark enough. So out of the 3 leaders in the RC vidcap; Clay, Ted, Brian I am going to put my money on Brian because he already won an obstacle course and he takes Clay b/c he comes in 2nd, and this upsets Ted.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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11-19-02, 03:04 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Brian or Clay win RC?"
Tribephyl: You're on a roll!

Thank you very much for the kudos. I usually have all of these "epiphanies" but keep silent...until I mess it all up by thinking about it too much, get some crazy idea. Then post. LOL Which is why I need some help with the "Ted and Penny" picture.

I know I'm off topic, but I think I may need some grounded "Krautboy" theorisms for why that picture is in the latest promo.
Unfortunately my gut is telling me that it is a shot from F4. If that's the case. Then we can't discount Ted (or Penny) as winners for this weeks RC.
Yet, if it is from Ep. 10 than why are there 4 torches. Help!? Should I even care about the four torches or...oh nevermind. I'll save it for on topic. Anyway thanks again.

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