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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "New Member" 05-19-06, 02:40 AM (EST) "Gender matters in this race, part 2" I posted this below last week which led to some interesting discussions. I wanted to add to it to give some further insight. Here is my original post and below it is the add-on part... "Gender matters in this race" This may be a controversial post but I seem to specialize in them so here goes. There was a thread on this board from earlier in the season as to whether an all female team could win the race. That was early on in the season and we didn't have the historical context that we now do about this season. Obviously, we didn't know anybody during the first episode so Scott and Jon leaving was neither expected nor a surprise. While I am a fan of females and am married to a wonderful one, I do realize that in a grueling race with lots of stress and physical exhaustion, it does tend to favor men. One can know that intuitively (and anecdotally in this case) without being sexist. Having said that, after episode 1, I predicted an exit sequence that has proven to be eerily accurate and very telling and it has to do with genders. When I made the prediction, it was a bit vague as far as filling in the teams because I didn't know them. However, it turned out to be DEAD ON ACCURATE. Without further ado, here it is. I said that the all female teams would leave first and in the order of who had the weakest female on their team. That proved right. Lisa and Joni (remember the car driving nervous breakdown in Brazil), then Wanda and Desiree (mom was the weak link), then the double duh's (both were weak links mentally but young and fit helped them be the last all female team to exit). I predicted that after the all female teams, the next set would be the 1 male/1 female teams again in the order of those with the weakest female leaving the earliest. And the order of the finishes were Dave/Lori (young, naive, physically out of shape), Lake/Michelle (a little stronger mentally from being a bit older and a parent and in better physical shape than Lori), Fran/Barry (older but wiser cancer survivor, fit but not as fit as Monica or Yolanda), and finally Monica (less fit/more given to emotional breakdowns than Yolanda). And while these teams with weak females have been exiting in a fairly easily predictable order, the 2 all male teams have racked up 8 first place finishes out of 10 (5 Frats, 3 Hippies) and 7 second place finishes out of 10 (4 Frats, 3 Hippies) and each has a fast forward and the Hippies reached both yields first but only chose to use one of them (on MoJo). One can say this or that about a particular episode and "luck" (good or bad) or what have you but I'm talking in general about trends. Why is this important?? There are a number of people that are speculating that Ray/Yolanda win. However, if my prediction holds up, they are the 3rd place team. I think it is telling that Ray used up all of his roadblocks at the point in the season that Yolanda had only done 3 (a 2 to 1 ratio). Whatever the roadblock is next week, Yolanda will have to be the one to do it as she has been the last 2 episodes. That could prove to be trouble as it may not be something as simple as making a table of food for monkeys who, I'm sure, would have eaten anything put in front of them. I'm not saying this is set in stone but it is a definite pattern. Obviously, mistakes and misfortune happen to teams and sometimes other teams get lucky breaks. That may happen in the finals and, since it will only transpire once, anything can happen. However, I believe if they ran the finals 10 times, Ray and Yolanda wouldn't win more than twice, if that. It will definitely be interesting to watch. At this point, I don't care as much who wins. I was just wanting MoJo to not win and that has now been accomplished. Any thoughts? I know I will hear from those who disagree. I'm just wondering if those who agree will have the nerve to come on and say it. ***** And now for the add-on: ***** Now that the race is over, we can see that RaYo did indeed finish 3rd, as predicted. I also want to go back (not in great specifics) and just give a couple of nuggets from prior seasons. Season 1 - MM (male/male) team wins Season 2 - MM team wins Season 3 - MF team wins with several MM teams in the race including 1 in the finals...stay with me...this will prove unusual Season 4 - MM team wins Season 5 - MF team wins but only one team out of 11 is MM and they are weak Season 6 - MF team wins (again only one weak MM team in the race) Season 7 - MF team wins among many MM teams for the second time Season 8 - TARFE...not comparable Season 9 - MM team wins Therefore, 4 of the 8 winners (not including TARFE) were MM teams but seasons 5 and 6 were skewed with only one MM team each season and those MM teams were weak teams. When the male team in those seasons was eliminated due to mistake/misfortune/whatever, that leaves no possible outcome for anything but a MF combination for those seasons since the producers have yet to pick a capable all-female team. Had seasons 5 and 6 been populated like the others (with 3 or 4 MM teams each instead of 1), we likely would have seen a different result and the poster who made that argument on the other thread would not be able to make such an argument. Bottom line: half of the winners (not counting season 8) have been MM though that gender combo has represented less than 25% of all the teams ever assembled. That means, statistically, that MM teams are winning twice as often as they should given their representation in the sample. I think that says something. I'm not being sexist, just making observation and putting out food for thought for you junkies who, like me, are still checking this board even though the season is over.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    IIT DOESN'T! michel 05-19-06 1    RE: IIT DOESN'T! Rasta 05-19-06 2        RE: IT DOESN'T! michel 05-19-06 3            RE: IT DOESN'T! donracefan 05-19-06 4            RE: IT DOESN'T! EnglProf 05-19-06 5                RE: IT DOESN'T! Rasta 05-19-06 7            RE: IT DOESN'T! Rasta 05-19-06 6  RE: Gender matters in this race, pa... Bebo 05-20-06 8

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-19-06, 09:05 AM (EST) 1. "IIT DOESN'T!" LAST EDITED ON 05-19-06 AT 09:09 AM (EST) If you are trying to refute my argument I would appreciate that you name me in another fashion than a "poster". So if I get your argument right: Weak Male-Male teams don't count but all Male-Female or Female-Female teams count!? Well yes, then certainly your manipulated statistics prove you right! Your Male-Male winning team was three times due for elimination and at the hands of a Male-Female team each time so I don't think your view of this race applies. It usually comes down to luck as much as anything else.   Top

Rasta 210 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-19-06, 10:05 AM (EST) 2. "RE: IIT DOESN'T!" I posted this in another thread: A few additional notes regarding GENDER... Category - # of Teams - Avg Finish - Top 3 Finishes Female/Female - 20 teams - 8.2 - 0 Male/Female - 46 teams - 5.7 - 16 Male/Male - 24 teams - 5.3 - 8 Total - 90 teams - 6.1 - 24 60% of Fem/Fem teams finish in 9th place or worse 20% of Male/Fem teams finish in 9th place or worse 21% of Male/Male teams finish in 9th place or worse 100% of Fem/Fem teams finish in 4th place or worse 66% of Male/Fem teams finish in 4th place or worse 67% of Male/Male teams finish in 4th place or worse 0% of Fem/Fem teams finish in the Top 3 35% of Male/Fem teams finish in the Top 3 33% of Male/Male teams finish in the Top 3 If GENDER was not a factor, then each team would have a 26.67% chance of finishing in the Top 3. We should have seen at least 5 female/female teams in the Top 3. In actuality, there have been 0. Conclusion: Gender is clearly a factor in TAR. The 20 Female/Female teams have finished significantly worse than either the Male/Female teams, or the Male/Male teams. Currently, the Male/Male teams have shown a slight advantage over the Male/Female teams, although it is probably not statistically significant.   Top

michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-19-06, 12:23 PM (EST) 3. "RE: IT DOESN'T!" Except that most female teams are casted to amuse the gallery. The Double-D's, who had never traveled outside the US, didn't have a chance against the Hippies who traveled around the world, spoke several languages and even stayed in Japan 2 years. Your saying it is BECAUSE they are WOMEN that they couldn't win!? THERE ARE MORE THAN ONE VARIABLE AFFECTING THE DATA! Eric also traveled extensively. Jeremy was a college athlete. Wanda couldn't even swim! I'm sure that it isn't a gender characteristic! Some female teams couldn't change gears in a car. Maybe there are more men than women who can, but it certainly isn't a male attribute. Choose the right female teams and I'm sure they could beat any winners we've had so far! Even if they trailed throughout most of the episode and were poor navigators, Ray and Yolanda were tied at Denver's airport. Their TAXI brought them to the Clear Park Location after the other teams had already left. How does that reflect in a gender advantage? LUCK isn't a gender characteristic either!   Top

donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "New Member" 05-19-06, 02:02 PM (EST) 4. "RE: IT DOESN'T!" My basic point remains unrefuted. MM teams have comprised fewer than 1/4 of the total teams ever created for this show but have won 1/2 of the first place positions (excluding TARFE). And, with only 1 team out of 11 in both seasons 5 and 6, the MM component was clearly underrepresented. However, winning 1/2 when their representation is 1/4 is compelling even without pointing out the skew factor in seasons 5 and 6. I do agree with those that have theorized that FF teams have been for the amusement of the gallery. My wife says that the FF teams have been either "eye candy" or "drama queens", both of which grab viewers. The casting committee certainly hasn't helped make the FF component more competitive. Michel, I certainly was not intending to offend you by calling you "a poster." When I was writing my post I couldn't remember who had actually said it so I didn't know who to say I was quoting. Besides, some people don't like being pointed out. I didn't think it was offensive or I wouldn't have used it. I certainly wouldn't want to offend you as you are one of the more prominent and thoughtful "posters" on this board. I got a lot out of your input throughout the season.   Top

EnglProf 888 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 05-19-06, 02:11 PM (EST) 5. "RE: IT DOESN'T!" LAST EDITED ON 05-19-06 AT 02:12 PM (EST) I agree that many female teams are chosen not because they have a good chance of winning, but because they are attractive or entertaining (this last part is true of most of the teams). A few seasons ago we had two models who fought endlessly and this season we had the Double Ds. I'm not saying that the stats don't in some ways reflect a bias, but it's disingenuous to relegate the odds simply to gender. After all, the Weaver family came in 3rd place last season (ARFE), and by this gender-based argument, you'd think that having 4 women on one team would surely be an insurmountable obstacle. ETF: punctuation Handcrafted by RollDdice   Top

Rasta 210 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-19-06, 03:35 PM (EST) 7. "RE: IT DOESN'T!" TAR Family doesn't count. In fact, TAR Family never existed. It was just a bad dream.   Top

Rasta 210 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 05-19-06, 03:23 PM (EST) 6. "RE: IT DOESN'T!" <Your saying it is BECAUSE they are WOMEN that they couldn't win!?> Not at all. In my post, I simply presented the statistics of the race. I did not attempt to theorize the CAUSE of the poor performance of the FF teams. Please don't put words in my mouth. Further, to say that FF teams are cast for amusement purposes doesn't do justice to some of the better FF teams: The Bowling Moms weren't eye candy; Kami & Karli were college soccer players; Monica & Sharee also had athletic backgrounds; Debbie & Bianca were experienced travelers.   Top

Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-20-06, 09:31 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Gender matters in this race, part 2" To "add on" to an existing message, please reply to the original message instead of starting a new thread. And reposting the same message again is a violation of our community guidelines. Since the original message was still on page one of this thread, and that thread was not very long, I'm locking this thread. Please continue the original discussion instead of starting new threads and repeating yourself.   Top

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