LAST EDITED ON 10-17-02 AT 07:10 PM (EST)
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NOTE: THIS IS NOT THE THREAD WHERE THE MESSAGE BOARD POSTERS VOTE FOR THEIR 'OFFICIAL' PICK. THAT THREAD IS HERE
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Apologies for the lateness of this posting, but some times these things can't be helped. For five spoiling seasons there's been a pretty good spoiling rule of thumb -- Occum's Razor. I've heard the case for Shii-Ann, and frankly, I'm having a hard time buying them all, they seem a bit contrived, and hey, after all, sometimes you have to just disagree with the majority. A few points:
- Stephanie is an outsider, lazy, sick, etc. Shii -- at minimum -- is not sick, less lazy, and is doing a better job fitting in. So Shii might be weaker, big deal: A) remember, it's Week 5, this is when you want to start DUMPING the strong folks before them become individual immunity threats, B) what good is strength if your lazy?, C) this tribe already established a history of voting out the strong but lazy (ie. JED)
- If she switches tribes Stephanie's likely gone. If she doesn't switch tribes, she's also likely gone.
- After almost two weeks stuck on an island, sometimes pigtails are just pigtails and some of these players would vote out their grandmother if it got them further into the game.
- Note the phrase is "tentative alliance" -- it's not "rock solid alliance" or "blood oath alliance," it's tentative, and if it involves Stephanie, I'd be surprised if it lasts more than half a day (remember, Jeb also thought he had a "tentative alliance" of sorts with Penny and look where that got him.)
- The Snikcers Girl reporting Stephanie's slippers still in camp. First you have to buy the Snickers Girl is true, and even if so, it's inconclusive at best, many previous survivors have left their luxury item behind after leaving the game (even if it is something lame like slippers -- which if nothing else, are probably getting some use as oven mitts of sorts.
)
Given that there's so little to go on, the Occum's Razor agrument wins out and STEPHANIE is the boot pick, although Shii Ann is a very strong alternate selection.
As far as which tribe STEPHANIE is on when she's voted out, well, I'm going to assume her personality isn't the type to try and retreat and live to fight another day, so she'll probably remain in PURPLE TRIBE, meaning RED TRIBE wins immunity this week.
For the reward challenge, despite their problems, PURPLE TRIBE still seems to be the more likely winner.
-SB
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MattyMax 
