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"Original Alliances"
westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-11-02, 07:21 PM (EST)
 
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"Original Alliances" |
why is it so hard for anyone to believe that original alliances will hold up this season. I may be the only one to see this but I really dont see a power play with Kathy. if she doesnt win
immunity she's gone leaving the S/V P/N. I think that pascal really has a good chance with the jury moreso than N/S/V. If kathy should win immunity then I see either Sean or Vee getting the boot.Mark hasnt really tried to fool anyone this season except for the mis direction which happens every time.so I see maybe paschal winning or possibly Sean. what do you think?
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ivoryElephant 2257 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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05-11-02, 07:35 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Original Alliances" |
> why is it so hard
>for anyone to believe that
>original alliances will hold up
>this season.
Paschal and Neleh broke their alliance with John et al. I may be
>the only one to see
>this but I really dont
>see a power play with
>Kathy.
She doesn't need a power play. She is already sided with N/P or maybe she is sided with S/V, either way, one of those pairs needs her to eliminate the other and she is defineately bonded with them if she doesnt win
>
>immunity she's gone leaving the S/V
>P/N. Not really, one group needs her to eliminate the other, once they get to Three, THEN she must win the final IC Mark hasnt really tried to
>fool anyone this season except
>for the mis direction which
>happens every time.so I see
>maybe paschal winning or possibly
>Sean. what do you think?
I see either Kathy or Paschal winning, most likely Kathy
Hail Kathy! the Sole survivor!
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Tumbler 108 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-11-02, 08:02 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Original Alliances" |
Speaking of original alliances westgirl98, here are some tidbits for you. Neleh and Paschal have NEVER voted differently from each other. And EVERY time they’ve voted, the person they voted for left the game. So, basically everything has gone their way, as far as tribal council is concerned. Kathy did have that one stray vote in Ep. 7 for Zoe, however I think that had more to do with Kathy’s promise to Rob that she would not vote for him. The fact that she voted that way proves she can be unpredictable and untrusting, even of Neleh and Paschal. Neleh and Paschal should keep that in mind, but I don’t think they will.As far as Sean and Vecepia, there is a similar situation. They have voted exactly the same in every episode EXCEPT in Ep. 7 once again, where Vee voted for Rob along with Rotu. As ivoryElephant pointed out, Paschal and Neleh broke their alliance with the Rotu 4. So along with Vee and Kathy breaking their words in Ep.7, Sean, believe it or not, is the only one left that hasn’t broken his word. (correct me if I don’t remember Sean breaking his word as far as alliances). We all have to thank The Robfather for making this all possible. If it weren’t for him stirring up suspicions, there would never have been a power shift within the Rotu gang. He really has made this season the best by far. Thanks Rob! The way I see it, Kathy will get the boot next, or she will take the whole darn thing. Tumbler
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westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-11-02, 09:18 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Original Alliances" |
yes maybe but do you see the rotu tribe voting kathy to win the million when they feel she betrayed them or will they think she is the most deserving. I do think neleh is riding paschals coat tails but she is playing the game,as we have said before if she IS in the final 2 with pappy he may very well give it to her because I dont really think he needs the money that badly. I would love to see a final 2 with either 2 males or 2 females because it has never happened. With a K/V i see Kathy winning because the jury doesnt seem that fond of Vee. With P/S the same thing so I see a man and woman in the final 2. I have to agree this is the best survivor yet but I just cant see kathy winning this thing. I still think she is a goner for next week.
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Tumbler 108 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-11-02, 10:08 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Original Alliances" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-02 AT 10:11 PM (EST)I see it possible for the Rotu 4 to vote for Kathy to win over Paschal OR Neleh. We were never shown Kathy making any promises to Rotu 4. We were shown Paschal promising John that he would keep his word, and he didn’t. Here’s another tidbit. Everybody left (the final five), has voted for everybody on the jury, at every tribal council. An obvious alliance, I would say. In other words everyone left has voted against the majority of the jury already. So all is equal there. Of all of the possible combinations for the final two, I see Kathy and Sean having the best odds. Vecepia has the worst odds. Neleh and Paschal will depend on who their neighbor is. As far as having two males or two females in the final two, that would be great. We haven’t seen that yet, however I think you are right in that it probably will not be the case. There is a possibility you are right about Kathy being a goner next week, but like I said earlier, if she’s not, I think we have our winner. Next week sure will be interesting. Tumbler
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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05-12-02, 03:21 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Original Alliances" |
> Kathy did have
>that one stray vote in
>Ep. 7 for Zoe, however
>I think that had more
>to do with Kathy’s promise
>to Rob that she would
>not vote for him. The
>fact that she voted that
>way proves she can be
>unpredictable and untrusting, even of
>Neleh and Paschal. Neleh and
>Paschal should keep that in
>mind, but I don’t think
>they will.
I have read other posts similar to this one, but one thing that all of those forgot, including yours Tumbler, is that Kathy felt very betrayed by Zoe. Rob was able to convince Kathy that Zoe was indeed lying to her and that Kathy was the one that was going to be voted out.
I think she gave Zoe that vote, as a way of warning Zoe that she was on to her and that her actions had been hurtful. As for the "unpredictable and untrusting" comment, I believe that given that a LOT of poeple have lied to her, she should not trust anyone. If you meant to say untrustwhorthy, I have never seen anything of the sort coming from Kathy. >As ivoryElephant pointed out, Paschal and
>Neleh broke their alliance with
>the Rotu 4. So along
>with Vee and Kathy breaking
>their words in Ep.7, Sean,
>believe it or not, is
>the only one left that
>hasn’t broken his word. (correct
>me if I don’t remember
>Sean breaking his word as
>far as alliances). Disagree again, I have not seen Kathy break her word to anyone, but I will give you that Sean has indeed been honest to the others. >We all have to thank The
>Robfather for making this all
>possible. If it weren’t for
>him stirring up suspicions, there
>would never have been a
>power shift within the Rotu
>gang. Believe it or not, that idiot did serve his purpose, so he get deserved kudos for it. But he is still an idiot. 
>The way I see it, Kathy
>will get the boot next,
>or she will take the
>whole darn thing.
Kathy wins P.S. This is my 400th post, hooray for me 
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PsychoDoc 95 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-12-02, 05:04 AM (EST)
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6. "Applying the misdirection theory to alliances" |
I know that this sort of deviates from the actual topic of this thread, but it didn't fit in the episode by episode misdirection. What we are shown(not counting the recrap) is never what we get, and vice versa.(with more weight to such info if the consequence was primed the previous episode) My thoughts and inferences in italic old Maraamu:
*RobM, Sarah, Sean and Vee's vote for Pat. Until it occurred, I saw little indication that the 4 had made some sort of pact and Vee's flip was surprising, to me at least. I had sort of assume that Hunter, Gina, Pat and Vee were together, with 1 couple and an angry non-comformist guy. *RobM was a dumb construction worker who didn't know that chickens fly and would defer to the smarter Hunter, ie follow Hunter's instructions(stop chasing chickens) as well as his vote(for Peter). But in actual fact, he was the Robfather. New Rotu:
*Rotu 4 wants to boot Gabe. We see RobM making a play to get Gabe to defect(the actual discussion omited because Gabe refused, so it was strongly implied and the effort was greatly featured. *Rotu4's plan to Pagong NM then OM. We all know what happened. New Maraamu:
*Gina's bond with PN featured. She went to PN to c/o Kathy burying the fire. Kathy fretting over a threesome that never existed.
*We are family, we go into the merge together as I unit. The next week, PN were obviously in the bigger unspoken alliance of old Rotu and were unconcerned by the first 4 boots of RM, S, V, K. P's comment of, "So?" to Kathy when she said that they were pawns. Merge:
*RobM & Kathy. That pact was over even before it came to play. *R4+2 were together, J's "they are supporting me in my sucess." Also over very quickly. Just prior to that, the my-word fiasco. *NP's resistance at pagong prevention, I thought that they did not have it in them. Then we saw NPKSV's work before the team. * KZ "we are best friend" Z seemed to have flipped and partnered K. Didn't happen either. * R & K to form a couple. Didn't happened.
What's shown:
NP: nothing to question other than who wears the pants. We are told that it was N. Is it really?
SV: Are they? V flipping against Sean and Rob, Sean's comment about Afican Americans together. K+NP:Suggestion that they are not as tight, so K has to watch her back and plot.think that the 3some will stick together to the end. SK: Just subtle signs of a strong bond, but not a partner in the million.
SP: Same as SK.
One of these 2 might be the secret alliance we are not shown yet, ie with a KS+V, SP+N F3. Not shown: This is the everything under the sun, chart-guy-like thing, so I would not speculate this, other than to comment that these pairings are not likely as MB would not repeat the Colby-Tina secret pact again by totally blindsighting the audience.
KP+N, KN+P, KV+S, PV, NV(not with that if-looks-can-kill glare that N gave to V), KV, SN(yeh right), SNV(see my toes laughing) The only thing I can think of that did not fit this is Vee's 5th wheel position never shown till the recrap. If R4 were sure that Vee was with them, that would explain why they were so cocky, John Can Count. If we were shown, John's boot would be even more unexpected.
Sticking my neck out, could we then infer that the person who betrayed R4 more was not P, but V. Thus the TR vote V, R vote S 'cause he could not vote V. In Conclusion
I think one of 2 things might happen:
1. KNP will vote of SV to be the final 3.
2. V somehow manages to coast thru to F2by doing a Colby, and the day of reckoning refers to her losing the million 'cause she pulled a Pappy.
Knowing my track recond at spoiling(I have been wrong most if not all of the time), most of it is off the mark. Please feel free to tear this into pieces, as that is the only way I can brush up my non-existant spoiling skills.
Anyway, I'll be getting my witchy board out again for LionChow's contest rather than following this.
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Teddy_Bear 1675 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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05-12-02, 06:30 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Applying the misdirection theory to alliances" |
>The only thing I can think
>of that did not fit
>this is Vee's 5th wheel
>position never shown till the
>recrap. If R4 were sure
>that Vee was with them,
>that would explain why they
>were so cocky, John Can
>Count. If we were shown,
>John's boot would be even
>more unexpected. PsychoDoc, you are partially correct here; Vee was originally supposed to be the fith member of the ex-Rotu. How that changed to N/P being fith and 6th, respectively was, that Vee--no great surprise here, flip-floped. According to John, his biggest regret was ejecting Vee from the final 5. This happened because appartly when first approach by John, she agreed to vote with them; then she changed her mind and said that sho could not vote her "friend", the Robfather out; then she changed her mind back, yet again and agreed to vote with the Rotu-4 against him. Unfortunatly it was--for the ex-Rotu-4--too much, too little, too late; they no longer trusted her--despite her Rob vote, and replaced her with N/P. >Sticking my neck out, could we
>then infer that the person
>who betrayed R4 more was
>not P, but V. Thus
>the TR vote V, R
>vote S 'cause he could
>not vote V. I agree with you here PschoDoc, had Vee not done a flip-flop on her initial agreement to vote out Rob M.; J/Z/T/R would not be sitting in the jurybox, but still in the game. >2. V somehow manages to coast
>thru to F2by doing a
>Colby, and the day of
>reckoning refers to her losing
>the million 'cause she pulled
>a Pappy. I partially agree with you, again; In Ep. 10, Tammy says to Robert (a.k.a. the General) that "no one has flip-floped more than Vee"--this is where she receives 2 votes. In Ep. 11, Robert votes for Sean only because InVEEsible has the IN. In an interview with Robert post-exit; he strongly praises Kathy, Paschal, and Sean (to a far lesser extent), but also wonders "why people only remember the good things" about him (Pappy), and forget about his (Pascal) breaking his (P's) word to John. He is less complimentary about Neleh, whom he refers to as the "true leader" and (I could be wrong about this) a schemer. He expresses the most contempt for Vee--"she knows where her bread is buttered." It looks to me that the ex-Rotu-4 would likey vote in this order (given the choice): K/S/N/P/V--if he is on the level and felt the same way during the final jury vote.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Neleh: We're in Disneyland!
The Cream rises to the top. So does the scum.
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Light a Virtual Candle
Eleanor Roosevelt: No one can make YOU feel inferior without YOUR consent!
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Tumbler 108 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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05-12-02, 04:23 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Original Alliances" |
I wanted to post the voting history for all of the Survivors active in the game. I hope this tool will help out in some way. Maybe we can find patterns that may show any hidden alliance or maybe provide clues to how the jury may vote. I just wanted to put this all on one post since I rambled earlier in the thread.Jury:
J – RM / S
Z – RM / J / R
T – RM / S / Z / V
R – RM / S / Z / V / S
Final Five:
K – Z / J / Z / T / R
N – RM / J / Z / T / R
P – RM / J / Z / T / R
S - J / J / Z / T / R
V – RM / J / Z / T / R Starting with the jury members, the votes are consistent with three of the Rotu 4 alliance. Zoe did her own thing at tribal council, and I think that will carry over into the final 2 voting. In fact T/R even voted Zoe off. So I see Zoe’s vote as a wild card. In the final five, everyone has been together on the last four votes. Whether that was an agreement or an alliance, it has to end on Thursday. As I pointed out earlier, I find it interesting that N/P/V have identical voting records. This is where we were shown Vee betraying the Rotu 4, but in reality she was sticking with N/P. As far as K/N/P they have voted the same since day one, except Kathy’s vote in ep. 7. S/V the same thing, since day one with the one exception with Vee in ep. 7. Thanks again Robfather! Thanks katem for reminding me about Zoe betraying Kathy in ep. 7. I always forget about that Zoe. I wonder if Zoe would vote for Kathy in the final two. I think we will find out. By the way, congrats on 400 katem. With this post I bid farewell. I will be in a far off place until after the last episode. So I want to say thanks to everyone here for a great season. I will check back for updates, and definitely for SURVIVOR Thailand. See you then! Oops, I rambled again. By the way since I won’t be around, my official picks are: N/P/S/V/K….. Tumbler
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westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-12-02, 05:34 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Original Alliances" |
Well Tumbler I'LL miss ya!
sorry you wont be around to add your informative views. I still feel Kathy has a better shot with N/P than with S/V Unless it's a water challege which I doubt. Kathy has a better chance of winning immunity against Pappy and Neleh than Sean or Vee.For k
Kathy to win I feel she would have to take Neleh into the final 2 with her over Paschal. If she goes the other route then she has to beat out either Sean or Vee and they are both strong players. But I see her as the sure winner that way considering she can win. I dont really know if Kathy is the most deserving and that BOTHERS ME but......If she does then she played the game well. Vee on the oher hand has always voted with Pappy and Neleh so they may have a hidden alliance to get themselves into the final 3. I can see Vee voting off Sean if she sees him as a threat to her winning the game. Paschal has a good shot as well but it looks as though all the misdirection is setting us up for a Neleh win. We'll find out in 2 weeks, Until then Keep posting!!!
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westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-13-02, 01:31 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Original Alliances" |
Kathy could have a good chance at winning the immunity this week and if that is the case then I can see possibly Vee or neleh going. that could be why pappy is sooo mad. what do ya think???
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steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-13-02, 10:44 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Original Alliances" |
I agree completely. Kathy has survived this long by adapting and being crafty. S/V & P/N ARE in alliances with eachother and I think they'll stick. Kathy will most likely end up voting with N/P to make it to the final 3. It seems too predictable to me...I'm hoping for something exciting to happen, maybe Sean winning the IC 3 times in a row ????
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ConanRDU 20 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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05-13-02, 11:11 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Original Alliances" |
>I agree completely. Kathy has survived
>this long by adapting and
>being crafty. S/V & P/N
> ARE in alliances with
>eachother and I think they'll
>stick. I agree with this part completely. If Kathy is smart, I think she'll make a move to bust up both alliances. Kathy is likely the swing vote next week. Therefore, I think she's safe until at least the final 4. I think HER best bet is to eliminate either Paschal or Neleh for 2 reasons. First, she doesn't want to face either of those 2 in the final 2 (assuming she can make it that far). Second, the final four IC has been the "fallen comrades" quiz in 2 of the past 3 seasons. Since this usually concentrates on the jury members and since Sean and Vee never really were tight with the Rotu 4, Paschal and Neleh are bigger threats in that challenge. Before the next tribal council, she makes nice with the remaining one of P/N to target Sean or Vee. It's a risk - P/N could disclose this to Sean and Vee making Kathy a target, or Sean and Vee could win the tiebreaker. If this strategy succeeds, Kathy has a good chance of going to the final 2 regardless of whether she wins immunity when there are three of them left. If the strategy fails, the downside is, assuming she doesn't win immunity, (a) she could go in 4th place instead of 3rd and (b) if she doesn't lose immunity at 3 she's gone (I assume an intact alliance of either P/N or S/V will vote her off between 3 and 2 if they can, so this isn't really a downside.) We know that Kathy is thinking about the big picture (she thought about teaming with the General to get rid of someone), she may realize that the next two tribal councils are key to her place in the game.
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spartan 280 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-13-02, 07:17 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Original Alliances" |
The problem with splitting both alliances (i.e teaming up with S/v to eliminate P, and then teaming up with N to go after S/V) is that sheis completely screwed with the jury. Unless she has a little Dicque in her (I'm not even going to touch that) there isn't a speech in the world the is going to leave her holding the $1M, after she stabs both sides in the back.
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alleyb 98 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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05-14-02, 01:42 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Original Alliances" |
I disagree. In the final jury vote, it is the person who strategized the best who will gain the jury's respect and will win. Given the current situation, I know I'd be pretty impressed with Kathy if she can maneuver her way to the Final 2. Neleh and Pascal have made their way through the game on each other's backs, and Sean and Vee have largely done the same. Kathy has never ridden on anyone else's shoulders. If she gets to the Final 2, it will be on her own merits alone. This is why I think if she gets to the Final 2, she'll win against anyone (regardless of how she gets there).Another point of greivance for me is the concept of the best liked person being a shoo-in for winning the game (and don't get me started about the concept of "integrity"). Richard Hatch won for controlling and manipulating the game. Tina won against the better liked Colby because she was seen as the real mastermind (Alicia said as much during her vote, as did Jerri). Now, Ethan doesn't exactly fit my profile of the strategist, but neither did Kim J, so Ethan was the only winner based more on likeability than strategy (although his strategy did get him through the game easily, while Kim J barely pulled her way through to the end). Now, a good argument can be made for all 5 of the players left in the game employing good strategy. Who would have dreamed during the first half of the series that Sean and Vee would make it to the end? That is certainly worthy of respect. And Neleh & Pascal certainly took their own destinies into their hands, which also gives them strategic credence for the jury vote. But...I just can't shake my amazement at Kathy's ability to survive, and I suspect the Rotu 4 will feel the same. (Witness Tammy's comments about Sean being lucky while Kathy was strategic). If she can pull it off and make it the Final 2, I'll be pissed if she doesn't win.
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Ra_8secs 1081 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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05-14-02, 11:38 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Original Alliances" |
I agree, alleyb. Point 1. The jury votes their respect at playing the game. (There may be a wildcard of someone really pissed off at a Final 2 being a turncoat.) This leads me to believe Kathy and Pappy have solid chances. They won't give credit to Neleh or Vee. Sean, actually, is a curious one -- he's always been honest, but nasty and whiney, too. Point 2. The jury votes for honest partners. Richard, Tina, Ethan, ....?.... The winner has always been an honest - early 'till end - partner. flipflopping is a big nono. Witness: Ethan,Lex,Rodger(and KimJ) in S3. S1's Richard,Rudy,Susan. S2's Tina,Colby,Keith. But the only threesome that seems to have bonded here is the new Maraamu of K/N/P. It's the only lasting alliance w/o any hiccups. Point 3. Mark Burnett's manipulation. He skews things as best he can to give the crown to his icon of Survivor Integrity to the Game. It's a girl's turn. Therefore Kathy wins because of good New England pluck. (And editing premonitions of "How's the money? - Good", and "I've got renewed energy.") Vee and Neleh have flaws. Sean and Paschal have flaws. It was really sad how MB, knowing Lex had been up all night w/ diarheah, called for a morning endurance/sweatfest.
and hugs and sunshine for all, Ra
   
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