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"Will a "Dark Horse" be the Winner?"
Rain Crow 374 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-07-02, 02:30 PM (EST)
 
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"Will a "Dark Horse" be the Winner?" |
First, let me state that this is the first thresd I ever initiated, and I hope the following discussion is sufficiently different from previous posts that it warrants a new thresd.I have been puzzling over Sean's survivorship and his chances of actually winning. His early statement about an African American not being able to win has me wondering about the ramifications of that particular statement being included by MB. If indeed an AA did not win S4, then MB is doing nothing but reinforcing this rather politically incorrect and self-fulfilling prophesy. I have a hard time believing that MB would want to call such attention to this subject if it was proven true. It would not, could not serve any beneficial purpose. Therefore, I can see where we might expect an AA to win S4. A winner that comes from nowhere, is completely unexpected, or is completely out of place is sometimes referred to as a "dark horse". IMHO, there is a "dark horse" in this game and it would have to be Sean, in more ways than one  . Here's my analysis, barring some weird immunity runs. Sean could reasonably anticipate that the jury would be likely to favor a survivor who played the game to the max, stood by his principles, beat all odds, and came from waaaaaaay behind. . Such a finalist must overcome any old tribal loyalties. Sean will probably emphasize this during his comment period with the jury. He might also expect that some politically correct white guilt feelings might swing some votes toward an AA. We have two AAs in S4, Sean and V. However, V has done something (like not pulling her weight) to annoy Tammy and Robert and cause them to surprisingly vote for her instead of neleH, who appeared to be the target. Both Tammy and Robert will tell the rest of the jury about their TC voting. They will easily pull John and Zoe into their animosity toward V, if it isn't festering there already for "jumping ship" after they "welcomed" her into their inner circle. Therefore, I believe that V would have a hard time winning Final Two against any of the remaining survivors. Sean must realize that the biggest hurdle he ABSOLUTELY MUST overcome is to win immunity during the Final Three. He MUST FOCUS on this wilh all his strategy and physical abilities because if he fails, he gets the big boot. His best chance of winning such immunity would be against Paschal (old and weakening) and neleH (weak, non-swimmer, low stamina, etc.) Either Robert, V, or Kathy would be more serious competition. If Sean is really thinking and working his strategy, he will be aware of V's problem with the jury. He will also realize that the jury might prefer him over Paschal (already "rich" and has pretty much coasted the game). Likewise, he can probably beat out neleH since Sean has really played the game whereas Princess neleH has also coasted along under Paschal's wing. However, Sean would have severe competition with either Robert or Kathy. He probably could not overcome old tribal loyalties for those two. If we have a Sean and Robert Final Two, then John, Tammy, Zoe, Kathy, will almost certainly vote for Robert. If Sean and Kathy are Final Two, the vote would go similarly. I don't think Paschal or neleH would be able to persuade the others to vote for Sean. V would have no sway over anyone on the jury. Therefore, Sean must work to eliminate Robert, Kathy, and V...in that order if possible. If not, then he can possibly switch Robert and Kathy, but I think he must try to get rid of V during Final Four when he can call on Paschal and neleH. Sean will need to string V along for a while to get rid of Robert and Kathy, particularly Kathy, since he may or may not know that Paschal and neleH have had bad things to say about Kathy in the past. Sean will also want V on the jury to get the "minority vote". If Sean is really playing with high level strategy, look for him to "court" Robert, V, and Kathy during the next few days prior to helping vote them out. We can also expect him to be emphasizing his come from behind record, his honesty and integrity, his work ethic (what?!...yes...I think that is why he is up on that tree), and his gamesmanship. He must win them over to get them to vote for him instead of Paschal or neleH. If we have a Sean, neleH, and Paschal as Final Three and Sean wins immunity, then I can see Paschal sacrificing himself for neleH in hopes that the jury would favor an old tribe member over Sean. The final vote could go easily for Sean with John, Tammy, Robert, Zoe, Kathy, and V (even though she will know that Sean voted against her, she would want to see an AA win) voting for Sean since they seem to have a bit more animosity toward Princess neleH and would respect Sean's overall performance. Of course, Paschal will vote for neleH. If Sean does win, MB can pride himself in hiding the winner in plain sight, just like in S1, but in reverse. I can't help but think that previous posted thoughts on the "reverse theory" may very well have some serious ramifications. In summary, I could see the ptte for the final 6 as: R/K/V/P/n/S but as with all this season, I need more data!!! Thank you for your patience in staying with me through all of this. I look forward to the comments, criticisms, and further iterations of this concept from the rest of the spoiling community.
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drawde236 317 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-07-02, 07:00 PM (EST)
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3. "It's up to Kathy" |
Great thread, Rain Crow, but the way I see it, in order for Sean to make it to the final 2 depends on Kathy. Let's assume the inevitable and Robert is toast on Thursday. This would leave the voting blocks of Sean/Vee, Paschal and Neleh and Kathy. Kathy is the wild card. Whomever she decides to go with will end up going to the final 3. I have a feeling that she is going with Sean and Vee only on the basis of the alliance between Kathy and Sean that was shown earlier in the season. Kathy has proved that she is an honest individual who keeps her word (her vote for Zoe instead of Rob proved this). The final immunity is the endurance and a woman has won every time. If history repeats itself, this means either Vee or Kathy will win. Kathy will stick with Sean in the final two. Whether Sean can win against Kathy in the final 2 remains to be seen
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-09-02, 11:02 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: It's up to Kathy" |
Kathy may not pick the final 3. If she decided to go with S/V or P/N and they voted one of the other pair off. The next time the other person could win Immunity. Then Kathy may be the target. If Pappy and Neleh couldn't vote for Sean/Vee they would vote Kathy before each other. And if Sean/Vee couldn't vote Pappy/Neleh they would vote for Kathy before each other too. So there may be a tie or Kathy would be booted. Kathy would really have to hope to either win the IC or hope one of her pair won it. Because otherwise Kathy could be in trouble herself.
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sittem 4186 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest"
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05-07-02, 07:50 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Will a "Dark Horse" be the Winner?" |
Rain Crow - thanks for re-starting a thread similar to Spidey's. I have to say I love the theory because I've pretty much come out as Sean's primary supporter on this board. I've not theorized he will win, but nothing at this point would please me more. Now, he could disappoint me over the next few weeks, but I don't think so since I've been squarely in his corner since day 1 and I don't anticipate any surprises in his behavior. He could fall out of the tree and injure himself and be gone, but he'd still leave as very popular with me. I do want to clarify your statement that Sean said an AA is "not being able to win" isn't quite accurate. Spidey had repeated in his thread that he thought he'd heard Sean said he "can't win" as an AA. I discussed this more thoroughly in the link Matinee Idol provided above, post #12. The pertinent comment he made in week 2 in the middle of lots of discussion about many things was as follows: "Sometimes the game isn't necessarily fair because me and her" (Vee) "are playing a whole 'nother mental game that they" (whites in the water) "don't even know - that when you're a person of color and you're the only one you have to ... that's something they don't even have to worry about. See, everyone can be themselves - we have to be ourselves but then hold back a little." He certainly infers that as an AA he has a disadvantage playing the game, so the basic premise that he "can't" win or that he's "not able to win" isn't an unfair conclusion by either of you. I just prefer to get the nuance correct. What I am finding intriging about your's and Spidey's theory is that MB has set this all up very nicely to prove Sean wrong - that not only does he have a chance, but he can or does win. Otherwise, why even include those comments? Surely, that particular one could have been excluded and the rest of his comments would have been provocative enough. Why have him state it if he doesn't win - doesn't that prove him right. Given that he doesn't actually say he can't or won't be able to win - the fact he makes it so far is maybe enough proof from MB that Sean's statement is wrong. I'm not quite willing yet to concede the game to him. MB could have put those comments in the show and then point back to the fact that the two AA's made it further than other AA's in the past - proof that they can procede to late in the game. The furthest than any AA's made it before was Gervase to week 10 on S1 and Nick to week 10 in S2. However, for both of them it was clear all along that they were not going to go all the way. They never had a chance. Sean does at this point, and either he or Vee could make the final four - maybe both of them. Would that be enough to satisfactorily rebut the comment that Sean made - "the game isn't necessarily fair"? In MB's world I think it would.
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Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-08-02, 04:01 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Will a "Dark Horse" be the Winner?" |
I totally disagree that Sean is not endearing himself. The only truly negative comments about him were from the moomoos ousted early. (I don't think comments about his intestinal difficulties count as people not liking him.) John likes him and gives him credit for hanging in there and doing what he needed to do to stay in the game. He also seems to have started working harder in the tribe since he got to Rotu. Paschal started liking him once he got to know him, despite what he had heard about him from bitter, bitter Gina. Everyone seems to say he is a funny and nice guy. It does not appear that anyone left in the game or jury really has anything against him. Of course that may change in the next 2 episodes.A lot of the comments that might make the jury not vote for him were heard only by us, Vee or Rob. And I think Vee will vote for him in F2 no matter what (unless he arranges her ouster, which I cannot imagine.) He could win against UTR Vee, and possibly Neleh or Kathy. Neleh b/c no one wants to admit they got outwitted by a sweet (*cough*)little girl. Kathy only if the Rotu 4 and N/P think she dissed them by siding with S/V in the end, or if they really all think she is more annoying than we realize. The jury may feel he played the best game because he was so outnumbered and somehow managed to make F2. That said I think K would likely still beat him in F2, but it is not a foregone conclusion. Who woulda thunk the jury would vote Richard over Kelly? (Ok, maybe some of you, but not me!) 
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