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"Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision"
FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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06-17-04, 06:12 PM (EST)
 
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"Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision" |
LAST EDITED ON 06-17-04 AT 06:35 PM (EST)Although I've sporadically posted in the past, this is the first thread I've ever started, so be gentle.  I'm surprised that no one else has mentioned this in the myriad of discussions concerning Rupert/Jenna's idiocy (my apologies if someone else has already mentioned this), so I thought it might deserve some additional discussion. Since the end of the finale, a lot has been made of Jenna's decision to boot Rupert at the final four stage and Rupert and Jenna's unwilligness to ally with Tom at the final five stage. Both players were obviously very locked-in to a A/R/J/R final four partnership. What seems to have escaped mention is that Jenna/Rupert could have easily taken control at the final five stage with a bit of unconventional gameplay. Indeed, the two may have let the million dollars slip through their fingers thanks to the morbid fear of tie-breakers that seems to engulf every Survivor player. At the final five stage, Amber and Rob were faced with two choices: Ally with Tom and knock off one of Jenna/Rupert, or ally with Jenna and Rupert and knock off Tom. For whatever reason, Jenna/Rupert were unwilling to align with Tom to counteract the first option. This decision puts them at the mercy of Rob/Amber - if they decide to target Jenna/Rupert, one of them is gone. In the end, Jenna/Rupert's faith in Amber and Rob was well placed. However, even if Jenna/Rupert were 100% convinced that they couldn't sway Tom to take out Amber/Rob, they still could have booted Amber at the final five tribal council. Amber and Rob are targetting Tom; otherwise, Jenna/Rupert are screwed anyway. Tom is targetting either Jenna or Rupert. Jenna/Rupert ended up voting for Tom, booting him 4 - 1. Had they simply switched the votes to Amber, they would have forced a 2 - 2 - 1 tie. I would assume that a revote would take place between the highest vote-getters. Thus, since Tom can't vote for himself, Amber would automatically be eliminated! The only risk would be if all those who got votes were eligible for the re-vote. However, even taking this risk into account, I would like Jenna & Rupert's chances since Tom would realize that Amber/Rob tried to backstab him. Obviously, the best thing Jenna/Rupert could have done at the final five point was align with Tom. But, the above strategy would have worked wonderfully if Jenna/Rupert truly believed that they couldn't trust Tom. I admit that the intentional tie is unorthodox, which is why Rupert/Jenna didn't think of it. However, it probably would have paid big divedends. Jenna/Rupert would have been the only remaining power couple, Rob would have been Amber-less, and Big Tom would still be smarting from Rob's attempted betrayal. Hopefully, future Survivor players will be a bit more unconventional in their voting strategy. FFFX
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oz4ever 1604 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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06-21-04, 10:26 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision" |
As far as I'm aware, Big Tom had an alliance with Rob and Amber. He really believed that they were going to take HIM to the F3 and not Jenna and Rupert to the F4. I'm pretty sure that in reunion shows he stated he wouldn't have voted with Rupert and Jenna to get Amber out at F5 stage because he believed that he, Rob and Amber were voting out Rupert, then Jenna.
In my opinion, he had too much blind faith in Romber.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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06-22-04, 00:35 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision" |
If Jenna and Rupert had voted for Amber at F5, with Rob and Amber voting for Tom while Tom was voting for Jenna, the first vote would have ended in a tie with Tom realizing he had been screwed by his F3 buddies Rob and Amber. Played correctly, Jenna and Rupert could have ousted Amber and gone to F4 with Tom gunning for Rob.
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jstone 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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06-30-04, 06:12 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision" |
Great analysis that really captures the essence of the "Prisoners' Dilemma." I think there really was a fear of something like this actually happening. There were a number of indications of this, particularly when Rob said he went over the possibilities 50 times a day and just wanted to flip a coin to decide who to trust at Final 5. I really expected them to stick with Big Tom but at the vote Amber flatly stated she didn't trust him. And clearly it was her call since she was vulnerable having let Rob win the word scramble immunity. They seemed absolutely sure the alliances would break if there was an opportunity to oust Rob. Rob must have worked Rupert real hard, but we didn't get to see any of that because it wouldn't have been as dramatic. As he voted at Final 5, Rupert said his bond with Rob just became tighter after the big fight with Tom and at the final Tribal Council, Rob asked for Rupert's vote because Rupert was a man of his word. Obviously there was a lot of discussion between the two of them and they clearly decided to trust each other. The essence of the Prisoners' Dilemma is that ultimately you do have to trust someone. I'm looking forward to the DVD commentaries.
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Oscirus 1596 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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06-30-04, 06:37 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision" |
Apparently jenna closed that door when she decided to instigate the rupert/tom fight.
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jstone 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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07-28-04, 04:15 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Jenna & Rupert's Flawed Final Five Decision" |
LAST EDITED ON 07-29-04 AT 09:37 AM (EST)Amber answered a question about the final five decisions on her website: http://www.amber-brkich.com/mailbag/ and her explanation is simply that Tom was voted out because he was not part of an alliance and his ouster would only cost one jury vote. Apparently, she and Rob were concerned that only one of them would make it to the final two and if they voted Jenna out at final 5, the one who made it to F2 would lose both Jenna's and Rupert's vote (this makes sense when you realize that the only way Rupert gets to F2 is by winning immunity - only a fool would take him to F2). You would think that Jenna would be in the same position. If she voted to oust either Rob or Amber, she also risked losing two jury votes. But, of course, we saw her telling Rupert that they should vote out Rob if Rupert won F5 immunity. I really want to know what deal Rob and Rupert made. I hope it's in the commentaries.
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