LAST EDITED ON 09-10-03 AT 02:30 PM (EST)

I’m trying to figure out endgame scenarios, and set about making a voting matrix. This is the first season I’ve watched BB, so I’m not terribly confident in my guesses. The BS in the house makes it nearly impossible to separate the bluster from true feelings/strategy.

The jury house is another matter. Are the players who have been there the longest (Dana and Nathan) still bitter? How much have they been shown? How much politicking is going on?

Anyway, here’s my feeble attempt at predicting the jury outcome based on the possible F2 matchups (and bear in mind that I thought Matt would clean house with Jenna ):

Priorities (This is how I see the jurors ranking the final 4 players from most worthy to least worthy):

------the current jurors------

Dana: 1. Robert, 2. Erika, 3. Jun, 4. Alison. I put Robert #1 based solely on her position in that alliance and relationship with Justin. She made no bones about not liking Jun or Ali, and Erika was in the rival alliance. The only thing that would alter this is if she’s seen Robert’s misogynistic comments and was angered to the point of voting for someone she genuinely dislikes over him.

Nathan: 1. Alison, 2. Erika, 3. Robert, 4. Jun. I think Nate’s been in the jury house long enough to have gotten over the sting of being done wrong by Ali. That combined with the possibility that he’d like to think that he was outplayed by the champ makes me think he’d vote Ali over anyone else. He seemed to have spent a good deal of time with Erika, and may have respect for Robert’s loyalty to his alliance. I just don’t get a good vibe on how he would rate Jun. My gut is that he’s not a big fan. Of course, I could be wrong.

Justin: 1. Robert, 2. Alison, 3. Erika, 4. Jun. Robert being #1 is a no-brainer. Even though Ali did his group wrong, I think the connection they have would have him vote for her over Erika or Jun. Jack may have been in Justin’s ear singing Erika’s praises, while he probably thinks Jun did Jee wrong.

Jack: 1. Erika, 2. Jun, 3. Robert, 4. Alison. Jack is the most likely to respect good game play. His loyalty to Erika would be primary. He may see Jun’s ability to play both sides without resorting to whoring yourself out (a la Alison) as a virtue (maybe not). While he’ll respect Robert’s loyalty, I don’t think he’ll respect his game play skills. We all know that he dislikes Ali immensely, and he probably doesn’t think lying to everyone with great regularity makes for a good strategy.

Jee: 1. Robert, 2. Jun, 3. Erika, 4. Alison. Jee votes Robert first and foremost. Even though Jun played him, I can see him looking past that and not taking it personally. Even though he tried to oust Erika twice, he would still vote for her over Alison.

------players still in the house------

Erika: 1. Robert, 2. Jun, 3. Alison. OK, this is admittedly a leap, however I don’t see Erika as loyal to Jun and Alison if she gets kicked to the curb. If push came to shove, I think Erika would vote for Robert over the 2 “floaters”. Again, I could be wrong.

Robert: 1. Erika, 2. Jun, 3. Alison. Erika is head and shoulders above Jun and Ali in Robert’s estimation. If it came down to a Jun/Ali final, he’d probably hold his nose and vote for Jun.

Alison: 1. Jun, 2. Erika, 3. Robert. This is a total guess. I have no idea how Ali’s brain works anymore.

Jun: 1. Alison, 2. Erika, 3. Robert. Unless, of course, Ali wins the final HOH and doesn't take her to F2.

------
All of this leads to the following pairings:
Alison v. Jun (Jun wins 5-2, getting Dana, Jack, Jee, Erika, and Robert, while Ali gets Nathan and Justin)

Alison v. Erika (Erika wins 4-3 (or 5-2 if it’s Ali who dumps Jun), getting Dana, Jack, Jee, and Robert, while Ali gets Nathan, Justin, and Jun (maybe))

Alison v. Robert (Robert wins 5-2 (or 6-1 if Ali dumps Jun), getting Dana, Justin, Jack, Jee, and Erika, while Ali gets Nathan and Jun (maybe))

Erika v. Jun (Erika wins 5-2, getting Dana, Nathan, Justin, Jack, and Robert, while Jun gets Jee and Ali)

Erika v. Robert (Erika wins 4-3, getting Nathan, Jack, Jun and Ali, while Robert gets Dana, Justin, and Jee)

Robert v. Jun (Robert wins 5-2, getting Dana, Nathan, Justin, Jee, and Erika, while Jun gets Jack and Ali)

OK, now tell me why I’m crazy.

Fester