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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-18-02, 05:12 PM (EST) "Munson's Law" Earlier this season Munson made some very interesting observations. He did an analysis of the previous editions of Survivor and found several patterns that have repeated themselves in all of them. I like to refer to them as “Munson’s Laws”. The original thread discussing them can be found here: http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/2170.shtml Munson observed that the Final 3 have always been from the same original tribe. The nature of the game is such that alliances formed early tend to last and betrayals are quickly retaliated against. The Rotu have had time to bond and establish strong lasting alliances, while the Maraamu are a fragmented tribe. Rotu has won the first six challenges and the tribe members have been able to bond without the distraction of preparing for tribal councils. No one has had to choose sides or make any commitments about voting strategy. While the “End of Innocence” is coming, the Rotu have not had to face it yet, and as a result, are the more unified tribe. Significant weight loss reports for several Rotu members also seem to suggest a greater likelihood of Rotu success. The Rotu have dominated the challenges and the Maraamu have responded by voting off two of their strongest male members. If the game is allowed to continue without a swap/twist, it is very likely the Rotu will go into the merge united and with a numerical advantage. In that case a “Pagonging” is inevitable. An early merge would have the same result. Unfortunately, if some kind of a swap or reshuffeling takes place in EP4 the whole “Pagoning” process is just accelerated. Right now if the Rotu go to TC they have to vote off one of their own, but any swap or reshuffle just provides the dominant Rotu with the sacrificial lambs in the event the new tribe goes to TC. A reshuffle would also encourage the Rotu to consider throwing challenges in order to vote off the Maraamu members of the reorganized tribe. In any case, it seems inevitable that the Rotu will dominate, and the Final 3 will all be from the original tribe…it’s “Munson’s Law”. Krautboy   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Munson's Law George Tirebiter 03-18-02 1    RE: Munson's Law jkokoj 03-18-02 2        TV Guide: EP5 Krautboy 03-18-02 4            RE: TV Guide: EP5 lazydazes 03-18-02 7  RE: Munson's Law katem 03-18-02 3  RE: Munson's Law rotu rooter 03-18-02 5  RE: Munson's Law TheWanderer 03-18-02 6  RE: Munson's Law munson 03-18-02 8  End of Innocence weltek 03-19-02 9  RE: Munson's Law PepeLePew13 03-19-02 10

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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-18-02, 05:28 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Munson's Law" Thanks for injecting some badly-needed LOGIC into the forum at a time we don't seem to be getting much (hell--ANY!) help from promos. This doesn't seem to be telling us anything new or shocking, esp. given the Maraamu schism--makes sense one would HAVE to have some kind of alliance to propel someone anywhere near the end of the game. Just when I was despairing that the Robfather was going to mastermind ejecting the most worthy people from the game, you go and give me new hope! GT   Top

jkokoj 4389 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Jerry Springer Show Guest" 03-18-02, 05:35 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Munson's Law" Thanks for posting this. I do not think there is any hope for the Maraamu post merge unless one of them can make an IC run. I doubt than could be accomplished by Rob or Sean at this point. Gabe would be my best bet to go on an IC run or even Tammy. (Off topic sorry). One question: Which episode is entitled "End of Innocence"?   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-18-02, 06:04 PM (EST) 4. "TV Guide: EP5" It's from the TV Guide... Survivor: Marquesas The End of Innocence 60 min. A fifth person is voted off the island. Jeff Probst is the host. Visit our Survivor: Marquesas show page Category: Reality TV Release Year: 2002 I've been thinking this refers to Rotu finally going to Tribal Council, but I'm still undecided if it refers to TC4 or TC5? Does the "End of Innocence" refer to the aftermath of TC4 during EP5 or the actual TC at the end of EP5? Does the "innocence" refer to Neleh trying to save Paschal, or is she the one voted out? Krautboy   Top

lazydazes 28 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-18-02, 07:30 PM (EST) 7. "RE: TV Guide: EP5" I think the Ep. 5 title "End of Innocence" could refer to several things: 1) the end of a simple "camping vacation" for the Maaramu (ie, the laziness around the camp) b/c in Ep. 5 the tribes merge (possibly) and they are forced to keep up and work around the camp to prove they deserve to stay and not get voted off 2) it could refer to the "twist" episode - maybe it is really going to occur in Ep. 5 (the title of 4 is trying to mislead us into thinking the merge happens this week instead of next). The twist may include a tribe swap of some kind forcing Rob and Sarah to split ways - ending their relationship 3) maybe the end of innocence is referring to Rob and Sarah b/c they finally realized that for one of them to win one will have to vote against the other in TC???? 4) maybe Rotu continues to lose IC (continuing as in - yes! I think they may possibly lose the IC this week) and it is the end of innocence for their tribe since they have not been to TC and had to vote one of their own off 5) maybe Rotu the "love tribe" is starting to not be so full of love anymore. Up until now, they have been winning - everything is easy and it is all fun and games until the losing starts. Maybe fingers start to point and alliances become more apparent OR they begin to form - therefore ending the innocence of a "everyone gets along" tribe Those are just some more possibilites in addition to Krautboy's Neleh and Paschal scenario.   Top

katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-18-02, 05:45 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Munson's Law" LAST EDITED ON 03-18-02 AT 05:47 PM (EST) Kraut, I have not read a lot of postings from you lately, and to tell you the truth it has made kind of bitter. As GT says, there has not been much to go on lately and I have started to pull my hair out. You usually bring logic, lots of it, to your arguments and I usually lean on them to make my predictions. Now, having read this post, what you say does seem fair and logical, a Rotu will win the game, but (sorry to go a tad off topic) who do you think is going THIS week? From all the info (caps, weather reports, etc.) we have on the table, I am leaning towards assuming that Rotu will be weak this next ep and will lose the IC , giving Gina a break from certain elimination, with a possible Kathy boot. What do YOU think?   Top

rotu rooter 17 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-18-02, 06:19 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Munson's Law" A >reshuffle would also encourage the >Rotu to consider throwing challenges >in order to vote off >the Maraamu members of the >reorganized tribe. I've been wondering if there was any way that "throwing" their fates to the winds could refer to throwing a challenge (in favor of Maraamu, the Wind). I couldn't seen any advantage to Rotu's throwing a challenge, but you have provided one. If the switch occurs this episode, before TC4...   Top

TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-18-02, 06:20 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Munson's Law" As always, very well done Krautboy. Consider the following: 1) There is some evidence that a storm may hit. This may or may not have an affect on an early merge as I have been promoting. 2) We've been told by castaways and MB that they were informed from the start that a switch was possible (i.e., that it could happen, not that it would happen). If it does happen, the tribe members would be asked to send representatives. That would give them a clue (at least it would give Rotu a clue... Gina would probably recognize it, I'm not sure about the other Maraamu). 3)As a tribe, Rotu would be faced with a challenge similar to that at TC: who do you "vote off" Why? well, if a switch is invoked, JP/MB will probably have a 2 for three switch. Two Maraamu go to Rotu, 3 Rotu go to Maraamu. Rotu has 7 to Maraamu's 6. Which members are more likely to go the the new tribes? - Maraamu: Gina and Vee would go. As mentioned in other threads, we know Gina would want out. Rob and Sarah wouldn't wnat to be split. Sean and Vee are probably ambivalent, but Sean would want to stay with Rob. - Rotu: This is tough. Since the new Maraamu would consist of 3 from each tribe, a chance is being taken for votes along tribal lines in TC. I'd like some suggesstions here. I can see Rotu throwing a challenge to "pagong" old Maraamu, however, that may not occur in this instance, depending upon who goes over. If Gina & Vee are sent, I can see Vee getting the boot and Gina making new friends.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 03-18-02, 11:34 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Munson's Law" KB, you continue to give me too much credit for what were very basic observations. And while I still believe most are coincidental, I'll continue to keep them in mind when I make my picks as we get closer to the end game... Agree with your thoughts about a stronger and unified Rotu dominating after the merge - whenever it takes place. I also think that one of the reasons we have been shown so little of Rotu tribal dynamics (alliances) to this point is that there will be plenty of time for that later, once the Maraamu have been sent packing.   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-02, 11:26 AM (EST) 9. "End of Innocence" I'm going to take this at face value...I know, a big shocker for a spoiler. Ep. 4 we see some sort of twist, but the Mu's still go to TC. Ep. 5, Rotu finally must go and boots Neleh, who has been played up as sweet and innocent. That fits the scenario for CBS EyeMail features, but not Varner X, which I still keeps nagging at me.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-02, 12:15 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Munson's Law" Your explanations and analysis is very sound, Krautboy, and the theory does seem to fit this year as well with Rot-u taking such a stranglehold of the game at this point in time. I would submit, though, that it is still very possible (though unlikely with the way the editing has gone thus far) that it could be a final 3 of Maamuus. How? Let's say a 3 Rotu for 2 Maamuu switch happens this week. In Maamuu you've got 3 former Rotus and 3 current Maamuus with the Robfather controlling his group. They lose the IC and win a TC tiebreaker and boot a former Rotu. Rob's gang wins the next 2 ICs after that and boot the remaining former Rotus. If the traditional merge happens here, then you've got 5 from each original tribe and all the old Maamuus need to do is to win the tiebreaker and they're in control from there on. Of course, we might not get a switch or early merge at all and the Rotus go to TC the next 3 times to lose their advantage. An early merge would most certainly doom Maamuu but another scenario that isn't likely to happen but would benefit Maamuu is to for them to lose this week's IC, be down to 4 and then have Rotus split into half, creating 3 tribes of 4 -- in which case, the Maamuus just keep winning all ICs from there on. Having said all that, I'm not holding my breath expecting Rotu to fall apart and let Maamuu gain control of the game. I think Gabe, Paschal and Tammy, amongst others, are too smart to let their people get too out of control. The logic thus far says that it'll be a Rotu final three.   Top

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