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"S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
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trillian 20 desperate attention whore postings
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11-11-01, 10:48 PM (EST)
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"S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
The twist on S3 caught everyone by surprise - viewers and players alike. Since filming has already started on S4, we can assume that they don't know about the twist. It seems likely to me that the same "trick" will be played on them, if only to prevent lawsuits by the GXA! I'm really starting to look forward to S4 now.
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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... Lightmage81 11-12-01 1
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... PepeLePew13 11-13-01 2
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... shabbathehut 11-13-01 3
   RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... Canada Girl 11-14-01 4
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... zzz 11-15-01 5
   RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... Naked 11-15-01 6
   RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... Loree 01-08-02 9
 S4 twist s_man 11-15-01 7
   RE: S4 twist westgirl98 01-07-02 8
       RE: S4 twist weltek 01-17-02 10
           RE: S4 twist The_Doc 01-18-02 11
           RE: S4 twist lroy 01-18-02 12
   RE: S4 twist ItzLisa 01-18-02 13
       Sorta.... sleeeve 01-18-02 14
           RE: Sorta.... The_Doc 01-18-02 15
               RE: Sorta.... sleeeve 01-18-02 16
                   Hello! The_Doc 01-18-02 17
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... dabo 01-19-02 18
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... big toms goat 01-19-02 19
 RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... slimmyworm 01-19-02 20
   RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... dabo 01-21-02 21
       RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... slimmyworm 01-21-02 22
           RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... TheWanderer 01-21-02 23
               RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... slimmyworm 01-21-02 24
                   RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... TheWanderer 01-21-02 25
                       RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... westgirl98 01-21-02 26
                           RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S... lroy 01-21-02 27
 MB has to have the twist! mavsfan 01-22-02 28
   MB can't go back now! Krautboy 01-22-02 29
       RE: MB dabo 01-23-02 30
           RE: MB lroy 01-25-02 37
               RE: MB dabo 01-26-02 38
       I think this helps us w/ E4 & maybe... mavsfan 01-23-02 31
           RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & m... dabo 01-23-02 32
               RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & m... mavsfan 01-23-02 33
           RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & m... Swami 01-23-02 34
               RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & m... DarkLotus 01-23-02 35
                   Re: 8 - 2 dabo 01-23-02 36

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Lightmage81 225 desperate attention whore postings
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11-12-01, 03:30 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
my sentiments exactly....

this may indicate some planning of this switch thing...

assuming that S4 participants do not know this "switch", MB now has 2 shows in which the contestants will be given a shock...

makes for interesting TV doesn;t it??

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PepeLePew13 26135 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-01, 03:29 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
My main concern is that WE VIEWERS (and online spoilers) will be expecting the twist to happen, while the participants in S4 won't -- so would MB be willing to screw around with the minds of the viewers/spoilers knowing they'd likely expect another twist?

The casual viewer (as opposed to a fervent viewer) wouldn't have a clue about the timeline for S4, so they wouldn't really tie in the twist together with what happened in S3.


"Damn you, Carl, for leaving me here with a bunch of misfits."
Frank Garrison, Nov. 1/01

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shabbathehut 5 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-01, 06:12 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
This is a quote from tahiti presse
"Lundi 12 novembre, les candidates et candidats à "Survivor" devront rejoindre leur vallée respective à la nage"
My poor french translation is that they will be swimming to their respective valleys on Nov 12 - yesterday. They may have started filming on the 8th but it must have been the survival training part.The actual game started yesterday. Plenty of time for a family member to e-mail or phone a warning about the switch if the sequestering doesn't start until they are in the game.
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Canada Girl 3340 desperate attention whore postings
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11-14-01, 05:43 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
Good catch, however, I bet MB has had the players sequestered in some way the second he got them out there. Doesn't Jeff P say the contestants have never met before at teh beginning of each Survivor? I bet this also involves no more outside contact, getting them ready for the drop off.
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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11-15-01, 01:51 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
I think another interesting question is whether MB will definitely use the twist and if he does, will it be the same twist? If they are not even at 6 a piece, a 3 for 3 swap would be difficult to justify because the larger tribe would have a majority on both tribes. Would he consider a 1-1 swap or a three tribe reshuffle or some other alternative if it is not even at 6-6? Will he does something different just to make our guess work more difficult (and arguable make the game more interesting by having a new surprise)?
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Naked 887 desperate attention whore postings
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11-15-01, 05:20 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
I think that contestant on S4 will know that something may happen. I don't think information like last weeks show could be suppressed at all. Even if they were kept seperate, and not allowed to meet each other, someone, somewhere will have spilled the beans on this one. Even an overheard conversation by a film crew could let this out of the bag. I think they will be expecting something, and I also think that MB will not go with the swap again, but he will do something to mix it up a bit.
Naked
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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01-08-02, 08:28 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
Since just switching the tribes didn't really break the alliances maybe MB will try using the sex battle. Partway through he could put all the men together on one tribe and all the women on another before the merge. He tried getting the males and females to bond in S2 before the merge. Maybe this time it would work. We have seen where a men vs women thinking does come into play sometimes. So it might be the trick to break down the original alliances.
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s_man 579 desperate attention whore postings
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11-15-01, 10:17 PM (EST)
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7. "S4 twist"
I hate to admit it, but MB is brilliant for getting the S4 players away before the Twist. I agree that it makes for interesting TV.

I LOVE THIS GAME (everyone says it's a sickness)

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westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-02, 03:29 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: S4 twist"
I love this game as well and I am also told its a sickness!!! Any whoooo What if MB doesn't even have the twist this time or what if it's something else? Remember the rumours about splitting the tribes into 3 maybe that was intended for S4? The switcheroo really shook things up but Alliances still held true so MB may not be so willing to try it again,after all Mk signaled to her "OLD" tribe mates to boot lindsey so that may not be tried again but then again with MB who knows!
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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01-17-02, 04:06 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: S4 twist"
LAST EDITED ON 01-17-02 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 01-17-02 AT 04:08 PM (EST)

I agree that the same twist probably won't be used again because MB didn't necessarily get the results he wanted. The only thing it accomplished (and it was purely by chance)was that the OFA was able to stay alive a little longer.

So how could a twist and the new info that there may be 14 jury members work hand in hand? Could it be possible that there is only one tribe and maybe for team challenges, the teams get mixed up every week? The alliances would be less predictable at that point. You could have a few big alliances or 4 small alliances. It would make for interesting tv..although it doesn't jive with map reports.

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The_Doc 15 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 03:55 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: S4 twist"
I believe the Twist is a really good ideea..but should happen two episods earlier...It would really screw up the voting scheme alot more...Here thy get to know the contestants of the opposing tribe longer than they get to know their previous tribe mates...It would also take longer to break tribal boundaries...and if the switch is not forseen...it will be crazy...itll be like...hey we have a tribe oki who wants to be in my alliance...than the alliances shatter...If the switch had occured in episode three in Africa...the Kelly and Lex feud would have brewed alot quicker and Carl would probably be left in the game still...The only problem is that each tem you have seven...Making one tribe the margin...But if it worked correctly it would turn out quite nice.

The_Doc hath spoken again

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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 04:20 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: S4 twist"
I wouldn't be surprised if he does continue to use some sort of a twist in Survivor. That way he keeps them on their toes. If he does it earlier or later or with more or less members, he keeps them (and the viewers) on their toes. That way each subsequent series, you are never quite sure which switch they will get, if any.
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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 04:37 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: S4 twist"
LAST EDITED ON 01-18-02 AT 04:39 PM (EST)

>>I hate to admit it, but MB is brilliant for getting the S4 players away before the Twist.

***Not sure if this makes any sense (my thinking kinda gets goofed up when attempting spoilers, LOL!!), but this could be the reason why the off-season is so short this time around! Feb. 28th is SO fast - they had to have been filming S4 while S3 was airing? So the S4 contestants wouldn't know about the switch? That way, it could be used on both casts before an S5 cast could get wise to them - S3 first, because it had never been done before, and S4 because they'd have no way of knowing if they were filming when S3 was airing. MB will have to come up with something new for S5 to keep it fresh, because anyone applying for S5 will be hip to it now.

****************************************

"I bet living in a nudist colony takes all the fun out of Halloween" - Some 13 yr. old kid in Vampy's local paper

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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 05:05 PM (EST)
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14. "Sorta...."
The ideas behind the twist being a surprise is correct. They specifically timed the departure of the cast of S4 so that it would be right before the twist aired for S3 (rumor has it that the cast left the US on the Monday or Tuesday before S3's Ep5 aired)... That way, the cast of S4 would be unwise to it, and it could be a surprise again... and yes... (S4 did film while S3 was airing in the US)

However, your reasoning behind the length of the off season is a little off.

The actual reason for a short off season is money. Advertisers pay more than twice the amount for ads during the Sept-May time slots, but not nearly as much for shows airing June-August.

By starting S3 early, and having a short off season, CBS will be able to fit two entire seasons of Survivor (their higest rated TV show) into a single year (S4's finale will air on May 30... the last possible Thursday for the big bucks).

That means more than twice the revenue they can make than if they delayed the start date of S4 a little longer... and, even if it will ultimately make for better TV with a repeat surprise twist, it always boils down to money.


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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The_Doc 15 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 05:19 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Sorta...."
If they left before Ep. 5 aired...wouldnt they have been able to catch glimpses that there would be a twist in previews and such...epecially if they were one of us...spoilers...they would have known there would be a twist...now what that twist was is a question...but they would know about it.

The_Doc hath spoken

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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 05:26 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Sorta...."
...yup... but it appears that is when they left.

...they may have some idea that somethign unexpected is coming, but even the message boards couldn't agree on what it would be... surely they'll have the same problem.


You never know what might be up my sleeeve...

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The_Doc 15 desperate attention whore postings
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01-18-02, 05:35 PM (EST)
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17. "Hello!"
i agree they wont know what is comin...theyll think something is coming...which may pose for more drama...that is good...If they know something is coming...By the way let me introduce myself...I am the doc...I will be posting quite frequently on these boards...i used to post on 3bigshows...but that turned to hell...anyway im lookin foward to sharin my insight with all of you guy.

I hath spoken

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-02, 01:10 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
Well, MB was smart to get the S4 players away before they could learn much from S3, so I do expect he will throw a twist of some kind into S4. However, if we look into the dynamics of the situation, if the original tribes were not even at 6 to 6 the 3-3 switch essentially would amount to throwing the lambs to the lions. If the 3-3 switch were to occur with one tribe strong at 7 and the other tribe weak at 5, as would have been the case in Survivor: Australia, then the members of the weak tribe would be outnumbered in whichever tribe they wound up in at the switch, 2 to 3 or 3 to 4. This would be an obvious situation for the Pagonging to commence and the strong tribe would reach the merge with 7 intact. Timing suggests that MB is planning another twist to surprise the S4 players, but logic suggests it will be the same twist (3-3 switch) only if the original tribes are at equal strength 6 to 6.
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big toms goat 14 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-02, 09:19 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
just to throw some fun into it. MB may have the two sets of three be the new tribe while the ones left behind have to form a new tribe.

Come in a stranger...leave a little stranger

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slimmyworm 28 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-02, 09:37 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
There was a radio interview with MB back in early December on a Cleveland radio station in which he said that the S4 contestants knew of the Samburu-Boran swap.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 02:02 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
A transcript or link to a transcript of this interview would be helpful. If no links available, what exactly was asked and what exactly did MB say?
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slimmyworm 28 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 03:22 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
I didn't hear it, I've only seen it mentioned in several places, EZ and Siii among them. Apparently it was in early December, on Q104 in Cleveland.

He said the contestants did know of the Boran-Samburu swap, it was a surprise to me too, I figured what was the point of timing it like this if he was just going to tell them. In a way though, if you think about it, it almost makes it more interesting. Now they expect a twist that may not come, or may be twisted in a different way. IMO, MB would not have gone with the same twist this time anyway, after all, it's not new to us - the viewer.

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 12:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
It would appear that if the S4 contestants were informed of the switch before tribes were assigned, that would make for some very interesting dynamics. First, the dynamics of alliances. Since the S4 contestants know from S2 that represetnatives were sent to stay overnight with the other tribe and now if they know a switch occurred, it would impose some strategizing on the tribes, as to who to send over. Who would "control" the choices of who to send? There would be a chance that if you are in the controlling alliance, that the person you send over could get booted and that would mess things up royally.
Think about it. If your tribe get 3 new members, unless they are individuals that are really liked and/or really help your tribe, wouldn't you boot the new guys (like Silas was) the first chance you get? Basically, to prevent your tribemates from getting the boot and keeping team alliances and loyalties, wouldn't you "throw" an IC just to boot off the new members, so that coming back to the merge, your original tribe stays in tact?
That is, unless, you send over the "less desirables" when the switch occurs.
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slimmyworm 28 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 01:25 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
Good point, Wanderer. I'm thinking MB will have to twist his twist again a tad this year because of the reason you bring up - if you know, prior vote-wise or whatnot, that you have the ability to boot one of the new tribemembers, where is the incentive to win immunity? New Boran figured it out this year, but what if next season, both tribes realize it? Honestly, it doesn't seem like too difficult a point for the castaways to grasp.

IMO, the worst possible TV would be JP saying "Survivors...ready!", then both tribes standing around not doing anything at an IC, because they're both throwing the challenge. Funny to think about, but I wonder if there will be some incentive not to throw challenges this year. Can't really think of one of the top of my head - but perhaps it's because the twist will be different.

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TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 02:37 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
In one of the foreign version of Survivor, they exchanged only one person; in another it was two tribe members. Regardless, wouldn't the group ne savvy enough to figure out, that when they are asked to send someone, they send someone either not in the alliance and/or the one(s) they would boot anyway? That way, the other team does the dirty work.
I agree, it would be kinda funny if Jeff says "Survivors ready?... GO!" and they all stand around. Of course, we wouldn't see it and the producers would have to have a "talking-to" with the tribes. However, the participation would be somewhat lack-luster.

How about this... the tribe that wins immunity gets to vote off a member of the tribe that didn't win immunity. Now that would be exciting!. The fate of one tribe rests in the hands of the other tribe. That would be an incentive to win, regardless of who was switched. That could be an advantage or a liability. If you sent over someone that you want booted anyway, if you win imunity, you could boot their butt off. However, you'd be taking a chance in that person who was switched, if they know their days are numbered, could tell the other team who would be best to boot, if the new tribe they're with wins immunity.

I think it would make for a much more interesting game and take a great deal more strategy.

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westgirl98 92 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 07:02 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
The switch if it even takes place this time may or may not work out. Has anyone noticed the previews of back to the beach? With the Original survivors? We may be going back to that way of playing which will be fun. This time out they really have to work together in order to get things done. S3 had way to many lazy people It was really aggravating and lil kim can say it was strategy all she wants they were plain lazy! Rumors are circiling that instead of 2 tribes they are doing 3 but I havent had a confirmation on this and it really wouldnt make sense unless MB thinks it would make for fewer alliances? Any thoughts on this?
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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings
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01-21-02, 07:18 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: S3 twist - how does it affect S4?"
I still think the three tribe rumor is just that, a rumor.

I think the logistics for three tribes would be just too difficult. This rumor was mentioned many times prior to the start of S3 and it all proved to be untrue, so i would have to venture a guess (oh no a guess on a spoiling board, be gentle) that these are just those old rumors being regurgitated.

lroy

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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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01-22-02, 00:26 AM (EST)
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28. "MB has to have the twist!"
I remember very distinctly when the twist was revealed in SIII, one of the very respected posters on this sight pointed out how BRILLIANT the timinig was.

The SIV players were ALREADY sequestered (as we understand the timeline), so the twist would be a surprise for them, just as surely as it was for the SIII players.

MB has to have the twist again AT THE VERY LEAST to avoid Lindsey and Silas charging him with manipulating the game.

Lindsey said after she was voted off she confronted MB, and asked if he had used the player swap to break up her and Silas' alliance, and MB told her that he had planned to use the swap before SIII started filming and that he would use it again in SIV.

I don't believe him. I think he used the twist to break the mallrats alliance. But I think he has committed himself to doing the swap again.

The only variation I think he MIGHT consider is doing it 6 days earlier Island time, so that the swap could be 4-4 instead of 3-3.

Finally, can we put the whole 3 tribes rumor to rest? Wasn't that started with the Futurizmo website? Did ANY info come out of there that was right?

There will NOT be 3 tribes in this SURVIVOR show, or any other SURVIVOR show. (Atleast not until the ratings get so bad it's getting beaten in the ratings by UPN shows. MAYBE MB would be desperate enough THEN to try a 3 tribe show).

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-22-02, 11:26 PM (EST)
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29. "MB can't go back now!"
Mavsfan, I agree with you that there will be a twist. The twist made for very interesting TV. It was fun to watch the shocked looks on the contestants faces and I think the general viewing audience will look forward to that episode again in S4. MB will not miss a chance to use it to lure us into watching and guessing when it will happen again.

I think the timing and the number of contestants swapped will depend on how the game unfolds. MB can't control the IC's.

A successful swap depends on several variables:

1. A point in the game, pre-merger, at least 3-4 episodes in so the contestants have time to get to know one another.
2. Two tribes of equal size.
3. An even number of contestants on each tribe.(This point could and has been argued during S3). This way the swapped players are not at a numerical disadvantage at the TC that takes place immediately after the swap.(Assuming the tribe does not self destruct like the original Samburu)

Given these parameters the only point in the game that a player swap really works is in Episode 5 and then only if it happens to be 6-6, allowing them to swap 3-3.

Last season we discussed, in great depth, all the different variations of the player swap. In my opinion, 3-3 works the best, but odds of having the right conditions (described above) are slim...

MB will have to remain flexible and look for the best swap scenario that comes along as the game unfolds...

I'm not sure which swap he will be able to use, but I am convinced there will be one. Remember, MB told us in the preview for last seasons EP5 swap,"...the game has changed forever..." he can't go back now!

Krautboy

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 00:44 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: MB"
LAST EDITED ON 01-23-02 AT 01:09 AM (EST)

First, I've been looking everywhere for some confirmation of this radio piece that MB was said to have done in early December that was on Cleveland radio Q104, preferably a transcript. I have found nothing. I'm not saying it hasn't been mentioned in other Survivor message boards, that is not an issue. I am only saying that I cannot find any confirmation that MB said anything. If anyone can find such confirmation, preferably a transcript, please do so. Until then I am going to operate on the assumption that some clueless someone out there somewhere started a ball rolling but there is really absolutely nothing to it.

Okay, possible twists. We've seen the 3-3 switch in episode 5, and my belief is that twist only works within the dynamics of the game when the tribes are even at 6 and 6. If the tribes are unever at 7 and 5, as would have been the case in Australia, then a 2-2 switch is the most dramatic twist which isn't totally unfair to some players; that way while two members from the weak tribe wind up with five from the strong tribe (but the two would possibly be able to take advantage of an alliance rift amongst the five), three from the weak tribe would wind up with two from the strong tribe. In my opinion MB is trying to find ways to rattle strong alliances, so what he will do will be the most extreme thing that he can do under whatever circumstances present themselves to him.

Here's an interesting possibility: The message sent in the Africa twist was to send your three best (or words to that effect), what if the two best from each tribe are called for in the Marquesas with those four forming a new tribe, leaving the other eight to form a new ungainly tribe of all the not best? This would seem very unfair to the four, of course, but if they actually were the four best they would have a reasonable chance of knocking the other tribe out in the four remaining challenges before the merge (and it would be appealing to viewers to have the four best at least make it to the merge). (edited to kudo big toms goat for the idea of having those who leave their camps form a new tribe, and it could even work at 3-3 leaving both new tribes even at 6 to 6 even if they were uneven prior to the switch.)

Anyway, that last paragraph was pure speculation, I hope it doesn't take on a life of its own as something someone somewhere said MB said.

In any event, viewers will probably be looking forward to a twist in S4, most won't care if it is the same twist as long as it is evident that the players are caught by surprise. MB can't go back, he has set the game on an evolutionary course and the only things he can shed are those things which absolutely do not work.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

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lroy 536 desperate attention whore postings
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01-25-02, 08:18 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: MB"
LAST EDITED ON 01-25-02 AT 08:20 PM (EST)

Dabo, i too checked out some places online to see if i can find anything on this. I did a search on "+Q104 +Mark +Burnett" on Y!, MSN, Goto, Alta Vista, Excite, & Google, with nothing turning up on any interview. I can't help but think a station would publicize that big of an interview. Especially since they don't seem to be in one of the larger markets (i.e. LA, SF, NYC). Additionally their web site has nothing on MB, not even a photo. They are owned by Infinity Broadcasting, maybe the interview was done on another Infinity station and replayed on Q104?

Do we know when the interview was supposed to have aired? We might be able to find out what MB was doing at that time... although surprisingly enough MB Productions has no web site of his own.

Call me a skeptic, but i'm thinking this one is purely rumor.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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01-26-02, 00:23 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: MB"
Thanks, lroy. Looking for something that isn't anywhere (I sometimes have to do this as part of my job) is the most time consuming least productive thing in the world. I am not faulting the person who reported in this forum the discussions on other message boards, that was something worthy of note, but after awhile (speaking for myself) it all came down to hearsay and wondering where it all started, which I consider a deadend. I operated on "early December" (as indicated in the post) and included all news reports citing Mark Burnett within that time-frame, nothing turned up. If I find the Q104 site, I may email the station's manager about it, but otherwise I think the lack of any authenticating reports anywhere is a clear indicator of an unbased rumor.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 01:00 AM (EST)
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31. "I think this helps us w/ E4 & maybe E3"
On reflection I agree, the tribes at 6 each allowing for a 3-3 switch is the only switch we really need to anticipate.

As you note, this was discussed in great depth during SIII, once we had the hindsight to know what exactly the twist was and further rehashing isn't needed again.

I think this knowledge should help us this season in the spoiling.

I don't think it's any accident that SI, SII, & SIII all merged even at 5-5. I think MB selects the challenges that will favor whichever side needs help in order to achieve the 5-5 merge.

Similarly, I think MB will select challenges that will result in a 6-6 situation which will allow for the 3-3 swap.

If this premise is accepted, then this knowledge will help us ATLEAST determine which team goes to TC in episode 4, and maybe in episode 3.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 01:13 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & maybe E3"
Technically, S3 merged at 5-5 only looking at New Boran and New Samburu. Original Boran had 6 and Original Samburu only 4 at the merge.
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mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 01:56 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & maybe E3"
<<Technically, S3 merged at 5-5 only looking at New Boran and New <<Samburu. Original Boran had 6 and Original Samburu only 4 at <<the merge.

The purpose for the 5-5 merge is too build tension in the minds of the the casual viewers.

However, MB didn't want to run the risk that the mallrats would get the upper hand should the original Sambura/Boran tribes merge 5-5, allowing the mallrats to start pagonging the Boran.

I absolutely believe this is the reason MB instituted the switch to start with... To kill the mallrats.

If this is accepted as accurate, then MB was no longer interested in achieving an Old Boran/Sambura merge of 5-5, only in achieveing a New Boran/Sambura merge of 5-5.

So, I think MB achieved BOTH of his goals.

1) Kill the mallrats
2) Merge New Boran/Sambura at 5-5 to give the casual viewer the illusion of suspense.

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Swami 5885 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 09:37 AM (EST)
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34. "RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & maybe E3"
>I don't think it's any accident that SI, SII, & SIII all merged even at 5-5. I think MB selects the challenges that will favor whichever side needs help in order to achieve the 5-5 merge.<

I agree, Mavsfan, that MB has been very successful with this manipulation so far. In reality, an even merge 4x in a row is pushing credulity and luck with his viewers.

Credulity: Many, if not most, viewers have seen all 3 survivor shows. If the merge is done with even tribal numbers yet again, then the manipulation becomes too obvious. How many times in a row are you likely to get 'tails' in a coin toss?

Luck: Even with careful challenge selection, people fall down, get temporarily stupid, or have killer diarrhea like Lex did in S3 (I do not think MB particularly wanted MamaKim in that final). Even with careful challenge selection, fate may intervene & choose differently than MB would want.

In addition, an even merge 4x in a row is way too predictable. Who wants predictable?

I think the time may be ripe for MB to let an uneven merge happen, just to keep the show fresh & real. This does not mean that he will not use the twist. In fact, it could make a twist even more compelling & fun. I just don't see why there must be even numbers to make the twist "fair" somehow. When is life fair? Was the S3 twist "fair" to Silas? Of course not. The Twist does not need to be fair.

Swami


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DarkLotus 344 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 09:52 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: I think this helps us w/ E4 & maybe E3"
Here's a thought... would MB ever let it get so bad that it came down to 8-2? Say one tribe just has the worst luck EVER, and keeps losing IC's, while the other just coasts through with no worries.

It would make things very intriguing.

- Dark Lotus

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-02, 04:29 PM (EST)
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36. "Re: 8 - 2"
That would be neat, espeicially without a switch, as then the Pagonging would essentially be finished and the strong tribe's political structure would be uncertain, so much that the two remaining members of the weak tribe could create a swing vote at the merge.
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