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"Will MamaKim Switch?"
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Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 00:03 AM (EST)
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"Will MamaKim Switch?"
I know this is pretty early to talk about next week and I know I haven't posted a lot on these boards, although I have been reading them since the start of S2, but I really think there is a good chance that MamaKim will switch next week. Here goes:

I think that after tonight she may be starting to see that she is on the outside of the L/E/T alliance and that her chances are running out to win the game. In previous episodes, she was pretty steadfast about her alliance with OB and that she couldn't vote against them, but she seems to be softening up a bit. Tonight she even said she couldn't vote against Ethan "at this point." Which leads me to believe she could in the future vote against an OB. This episode she didn't because she was worried about the TB/F alliance, but now with Frank gone she may be even more open to the idea. She really does seem like she likes Teresa and I think TB has a nice, trustworthy way about her that could win MK over.

Another thing that supports this possibility is that Kelly has referred to TB as a "manipulator," which we haven't really seen as of yet. This would definitely be a big manipulative coup if she could lure MK over to her side.

Something else that makes me think this is that MB showed us the L/E/T alliance in the very first episode. This definitely gives me the impression that this will NOT be the primary alliance of the game. Something else that gives credence to thi is the E/T photo that has been out there recently to possibly make us think they are the final. It just makes me think that NEITHER is in the final two and they both did get a lot of face time tonight. Ethan winning the game also seems too obvious to me, and also her and Ethan were seen talking a few times this episode, something we hadn't really seen in the past.

If MK were to join up with TB/KP, I think that the obvious target would be Lex, but I think the smarter target would be Tom, since Lex has way more votes against him that they could use down the road. Also, Tom getting ousted fits in better with Kelly's "fun at the lodge" comment. I don't think she would have as much fun if Lex were there. This also gives the possibility of the female alliance that some people have speculated about.

One thing that kind of bothers me about this theory is that the preview showed TB pushing for the female alliance. I don't think MB is relying on that this year as much as in the past because I think he is starting to believe that whatever he shows us, we will believe the opposite. A little bit of reverse psychology perhaps. Also, he did show us Lex's witch hunt in the previews which made us think that it wouldn't really lead to anything and that an OS would be voted out, but the hunt was successful (at least in his mind) and Kelly was surprisingly voted out.

Just a little food for thought about what might happen. I don't really like to pick too far in the future, plus I do still believe the chance of a MK/E alliance, and with the way things have gone this year, who knows?

Lance


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? kuchakor 12-21-01 1
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? katem 12-21-01 2
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Rose Red 12-21-01 3
   RE: Will MamaKim Switch? dabo 12-21-01 5
       RE: Will MamaKim Switch? King William 12-21-01 13
 Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? red 12-21-01 4
   RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? Rose Red 12-21-01 6
       RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? Lancerdude74 12-21-01 8
       RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? herewiss13 12-21-01 9
           RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? Rose Red 12-21-01 14
               RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? Hobbs of Mich 12-21-01 20
                   RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank? herewiss13 12-22-01 22
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Krautboy 12-21-01 7
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? heymikey 12-21-01 10
   RE: Will MamaKim Switch? speedstr22 12-21-01 11
   RE: Will MamaKim Switch? PepeLePew13 12-21-01 17
 History is against Kim J switching bergdogg 12-21-01 12
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Afreaqua 12-21-01 15
   RE: Will MamaKim Switch? dabo 12-21-01 16
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? shanana banana 12-21-01 18
   RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Bebo 12-21-01 19
       RE: Will MamaKim Switch? drich61 12-21-01 21
           RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Lancerdude74 12-22-01 23
               RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Rose Red 12-22-01 24
 RE: Will MamaKim Switch? zzz 12-22-01 25
   RE: Will MamaKim Switch? littlesplitty 12-22-01 26
       RE: Will MamaKim Switch? Rose Red 12-22-01 27
           RE: Will MamaKim Switch? zzz 12-22-01 28

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kuchakor 126 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 00:11 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
Nice theory, I think Mamakim is more of a wildcard than anyone else. BUT, I think she will make the trend continue, because anyone who has tried to make new alliances (Brandon, Kelly, etc.) has been voted off. BUT, TERESA is the one instigating all of this. Teresa will be the odd woman out, trying to make alliances when TELK is still a strong alliance, I don't see them crackinging in half until the Final Four (Lex & Mama Vs. Tom & Ethan).
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katem 3315 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 00:26 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
> Something else that
>makes me think this is
>that MB showed us the
>L/E/T alliance in the very
>first episode. This definitely gives
>me the impression that this
>will NOT be the primary
>alliance of the game. Something
>else that gives credence to
>thi is the E/T photo
>that has been out there
>recently to possibly make us
>think they are the final.
>It just makes me think
>that NEITHER is in the
>final two and they both
>did get a lot of
>face time tonight. Ethan winning
>the game also seems too
>obvious to me, and also
>her and Ethan were seen
>talking a few times this
>episode, something we hadn't really
>seen in the past.

This is so true Lance, but remember that maybe MB is just playing with the card he was dealt and he has no way of hiding that Ethan is indeed the winner.

> If MK were
>to join up with TB/KP,
>I think that the obvious
>target would be Lex, but
>I think the smarter target
>would be Tom, since Lex
>has way more votes against
>him that they could use
>down the road. Also, Tom
>getting ousted fits in better
>with Kelly's "fun at the
>lodge" comment. I don't think
>she would have as much
>fun if Lex were there.
>This also gives the possibility
>of the female alliance that
>some people have speculated about.

I hope this actually becomes true, because Tom is the most annoying, irritating and disgusting people ever to be on one of these reality shows. I despise this guy.

> One thing that
>kind of bothers me about
>this theory is that the
>preview showed TB pushing for
>the female alliance. I don't
>think MB is relying on
>that this year as much
>as in the past because
>I think he is starting
>to believe that whatever he
>shows us, we will believe
>the opposite. A little bit
>of reverse psychology perhaps. Also,
>he did show us Lex's
>witch hunt in the previews
>which made us think that
>it wouldn't really lead to
>anything and that an OS
>would be voted out, but
>the hunt was successful (at
>least in his mind) and
>Kelly was surprisingly voted out.

Also, remember that the previews for this episode showed Frank mouthing off and made it obvious that he would be voted out, which in fact he did.

In the end, I do not see Mama changing her alliance with the guys, and that will spell her doom. BUT, I think all this just bought Li'l Kim at least six more days in Africa, because if Mama does not join the other ladies, Teresa is the first choice to vote out.

I do hope though that they get rid of Tom. YUK !!!!

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"

12-21-01, 00:43 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
>
> I think that
>after tonight she may be
>starting to see that she
>is on the outside of
>the L/E/T alliance and that
>her chances are running out
>to win the game.

Now, the thing about this idea, Lancerdude, is that she NOT part of the L/E/T alliance, she's part of the E/T/MK alliance and that that's the core of the show now, not Lex anymore. He's gone if he doesn't keep winning the ICs.

But I agree that something is up - with the spike in face-time both for her and Kim P. and Teresa, too, and Ethan. Well, Lex, Tom and Frank were not anything but overdeveloped. He HAD to start showing us more of the others(E, MK, TB and KP) tonight. He HAD to. No more hiding, and historically, this episode is the episode in S1 and S2 when both Richard and Tina- BOTH of them, in two different series, came to the fore. So I think that bodes well for Ethan, Mamakim, Teresa and L'il Kim. That might mean that Lex and Tom are not the winners.

We almost saw FOUR new storylines start tonight, which is suddenly very interesting. I think maybe he was hiding these four for a reason. The final four kind of reason?
And now it gets really dicey AND Spicey.

> Another thing that
>supports this possibility is that
>Kelly has referred to TB
>as a "manipulator," which we
>haven't really seen as of
>yet. This would definitely be
>a big manipulative coup if
>she could lure MK over
>to her side.

NO. Not MK, TOM. That's who will be the most open to realigned with the now orphaned(as in the sense of NO MAN) T-Bird and Little Bit. I sent this in as a post under the title of TERESA-MASTER MANIPULATOR earlier but it hasn't turned up on the board yet. Did I post it too early? Did it get lost?

> Something else that
>makes me think this is
>that MB showed us the
>L/E/T alliance in the very
>first episode. This definitely gives
>me the impression that this
>will NOT be the primary
>alliance of the game.

Yup. Except that it has driven the game up until this episode, but I think you're right. It's ending now, with Lex's expulsion next time when he doesn't win the IC. Why do I feel that Ethan let him win this? Did Ethan throw this to him again? This seems the sort of thing that Ethan would excel at, but he came in behind Lex and Frank even though Lex dropped that black(symbolism) leather flag.

Also TOM'S WASHING THE WOMEN was not just a humorous pause in the backstabbing. I think MB was telling us something about Tom's relationship with the women. Also, remember he was washing Ethan, too. It was almost like some kind of baptismal rite. He didn't wash Lex or Frank, you notice? I think Tom's washing of T-bird and the EXTREMELY playful Little Kim signals a possible switch coming up down the line. Especially when the Boron are 3-2 when Lex goes next week, as my gut tells me he must.

Something
>else that gives credence to
>thi is the E/T photo
>that has been out there
>recently to possibly make us
>think they are the final.

I think one of them is. Ethan.


>her and Ethan were seen
>talking a few times this
>episode, something we hadn't really
>seen in the past.

This means that their relationship is now going to become IMPORTANT. We really are only being shown plot points now.

> If MK were
>to join up with TB/KP,
>I think that the obvious
>target would be Lex, but
>I think the smarter target
>would be Tom, since Lex
>has way more votes against
>him that they could use
>down the road.

I think they are ALLLLLL gonna try to get rid of Lex next week. But what if we wins immunity again? OY!


Also, Tom
>getting ousted fits in better
>with Kelly's "fun at the
>lodge" comment. I don't think
>she would have as much
>fun if Lex were there.

HOW MUCH FUN IS KELLY GOING TO BE HAVING NOW WITH BRANDON AND FRANK THERE?????????
This makes me question her whole "FUN AT THE LODGE" statement totally.

>This also gives the possibility
>of the female alliance that
>some people have speculated about.

I don't see MK going for that. Not while Ethan's still in the game.

> One thing that
>kind of bothers me about
>this theory is that the
>preview showed TB pushing for
>the female alliance. I don't
>think MB is relying on
>that this year as much
>as in the past because
>I think he is starting
>to believe that whatever he
>shows us, we will believe
>the opposite. A little bit
>of reverse psychology perhaps.

The OFG theory of mine. That he is not editing the trailers, if not the show, to confound our very own OFG. Who seems now to be having HUGE impact on the vidcaps of this show. If not the show itself.
Don't miss the EARLY SHOW tomorrow, Frank-as-dumb-as-two-planks won't be able to hide ANYTHING from the reporters. We may know the total outcome of the show tomorrow.

Also,
>he did show us Lex's
>witch hunt in the previews
>which made us think that
>it wouldn't really lead to
>anything and that an OS
>would be voted out, but
>the hunt was successful (at
>least in his mind) and
>Kelly was surprisingly voted out.
>
>YUP! That's exactly what he did and that was the most exciting episode ever. And tonight's resuming of the Pagonging made it one of the most boring for me. Even though I correctly picked Frank. "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar." Who said that on these boards? They deserve a special spoiler placque of some sort.

Rose Red(Herring)
>
>
>


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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

12-21-01, 01:01 AM (EST)
Click to EMail dabo Click to send private message to dabo Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
5. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
>HOW MUCH FUN IS KELLY GOING
>TO BE HAVING NOW WITH
>BRANDON AND FRANK THERE?????????
>This makes me question her whole
>"FUN AT THE LODGE" statement
>totally.
Well-read Kelly, Late-sleeping Brandon, and brunchless Frank; yep, that has party written on it so many ways!

>Don't miss the EARLY SHOW tomorrow,
>Frank-as-dumb-as-two-planks won't be able to
>hide ANYTHING from the reporters.
>We may know the total
>outcome of the show tomorrow.
I wouldn't count on that, Frank will definitely play by the rules MB has established for him, that's just the sort of person he is; and he's also the sort to clam-up if he thinks they're trying to get him to reveal something. The people under CBS control will likely not press Frank in any way like that, look for that sort of thing from on-line chats, or at least from appearances on lesser programs (the TES pros will know better).

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

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King William 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"

12-21-01, 04:35 AM (EST)
Click to EMail King%20William Click to send private message to King%20William Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
13. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
>>HOW MUCH FUN IS KELLY GOING
>>TO BE HAVING NOW WITH
>>BRANDON AND FRANK THERE?????????
>>This makes me question her whole
>>"FUN AT THE LODGE" statement
>>totally.
>Well-read Kelly, Late-sleeping Brandon, and brunchless
>Frank; yep, that has party
>written on it so many
>ways!

Kelly is a psychologist. Her idea of fun may be watching these two.

>>Don't miss the EARLY SHOW tomorrow,
>>Frank-as-dumb-as-two-planks won't be able to
>>hide ANYTHING from the reporters.
>>We may know the total
>>outcome of the show tomorrow.
>I wouldn't count on that, Frank
>will definitely play by the
>rules MB has established for
>him, that's just the sort
>of person he is; and
>he's also the sort to
>clam-up if he thinks they're
>trying to get him to
>reveal something. The people
>under CBS control will likely
>not press Frank in any
>way like that, look for
>that sort of thing from
>on-line chats, or at least
>from appearances on lesser programs
>(the TES pros will know
>better).
>
Yeah, I think Frank will predictably give just his name and number. I mean he is an NRA member who has just been captured by the liberal media.

King William

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red 140 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 00:47 AM (EST)
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4. "Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
The number one question mark for me in all of this is why did T- Bird vote for Frank. (She stated that it was for strategic reasons.)

Well, there's only one strategic reason I can think of. MamaKim told her that they'd bond together and vote off Ethan, and then it would be Teresa and Frank. And Teresa said no, I'd give my word to you. Well, really they don't need Frank do they? Now, if its a women's alliance: its 3-3 at next tribal council with the men with all the votes. So I believe that T-Bird must think that this is the way to get herself in with a women's alliance. I can not see any other explanation for her Frank vote (which made her cry, over a difficult decision). Whether she's correct in her assumption that KimJ will now join her and KimP is a whole other issue.

As a side note, how did "We Are Family" come into play? Was it really a reference to the "feminist" anthem and hence a reference to the women's alliance?

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 01:02 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
>The number one question mark for
>me in all of this
>is why did T- Bird
>vote for Frank. (She
>stated that it was for
>strategic reasons.)

The strategic reason is that this way she and Lil Kim can show they can now be loyal to the MegaBoronas and vote as they do. This is the only thing Teresa could think of to do to save her a** and she may have done it. She is now approaching "Master Manipulator" status. However, she hasn't succesfully "manipulated" anyone yet. So Kelly's remark, if true,hasn't yet been fulfilled, as it might be in the coming weeks(only three left!)However, her "FUN AT THE LODGE" statement now looks to be "NO FUN AT THE LODGE'" with BRANDON and FRANK both there. So maybe we have to take everything she said with a grain of salt. She also said,and so did Clarence, "I'm rooting for Frank". So much for that...

>Well, there's only one strategic reason
>I can think of.
>MamaKim told her that they'd
>bond together and vote off
>Ethan, and then it would
>be Teresa and Frank. And
>Teresa said no, I'd give
>my word to you.
>Well, really they don't need
>Frank do they? Now,
>if its a women's alliance:
> its 3-3 at
>next tribal council with the
>men with all the votes.
> So I believe that
>T-Bird must think that this
>is the way to get
>herself in with a women's
>alliance. I can not
>see any other explanation for
>her Frank vote (which made
>her cry, over a difficult
>decision). Whether she's correct
>in her assumption that KimJ
>will now join her and
>KimP is a whole other
>issue.

No, Kim P. won't budge. But Good Ole Boy Tom will. He wants to keep on washing them women, you better believe it. Which will be his downfall, when they all turn on HIM next.

>As a side note, how did
>"We Are Family" come into
>play? Was it really
>a reference to the "feminist"
>anthem and hence a reference
>to the women's alliance?

I told everyone that it was a Feminist Anthem(from a long time ago) but no, everyone thought it was a gay anthem.

Rose Red(Herring)

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Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 01:18 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
I still feel that L/T/E is stronger than people think and that MK is on the outside. I think MB is just showing us Tom questioning his decisions to make us think that they are not aligned. Tom has had some massive face time the last two episodes which really makes me think his time may be up.

Anyways if MK DOESN'T vote with the girls next week, then we will know that the L/E/T isn't that strong and that she feels she is aligned with at least one of them. I guess it could also mean that she is incredibly dumb (very possible this season), but let's give her the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

Damn this show for being so addictive!

Lance

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herewiss13 8 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 02:47 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
"We Are Family" was the title because of comments within the show about tribe unity (ha!).

Given the "blessing" spoiler, I was convinced that Frank was deliberately drawing fire from Teresa. How come we've never seen the "NRA" stuff before? Not to mention how everyone...and I mean _everyone_ thought he was being chatty. Looked like a purpose filled action to me. How else do you explain it?

To my mind, we've got two main scenarios that can branch out next week, barring IC surprises.

1) MamaKim stays with her Tribe until T-Bird and LilKim are gone...probably with T-Bird going first. After that...? I'd like to think E/T would take her with rather than Lex, but it's really too close to call right now. Lex is a nice guy to be compared to<g>

2) MamaKim joins T-Bird and LilKim...attempting to take Ethan with her. Lex bites the dust (MamaKim's not voting off Ethan and she appears to dislike Lex more than Tom). At this point all hell breaks loose<g>. MamaKim and Ethan will remain a Duo with Tom, LilKim and T-Bird all scrambling to make bonds (it reminds me of some sort of electron thingy...making and breaking links in an attempt to get stable...but I am certainly weird.) All politics after Lex's oust would be extremely fluid and unstable. E/MK/T might re-unite to pagong the other two, Tom might feel betrayed enough to unite with _both_ the other women to strike back. E/T might be so shocked by MamaKim's actions that they take KimP under their wing in order to take her out. The list goes on and on and on...

#2 would be the more exciting outcome. However, in the spirit of KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) I'm going to have to vote for #1. We _like_ the daring political coups that no one ever attempts. But they don't like sticking their necks out, which is why we never see those coups<g>

So what's up? A boring paGong-show, with boring being a relative term.

Eric

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 08:43 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
>"We Are Family" was the title
>because of comments within the
>show about tribe unity (ha!).

It's a FEMINIST anthem. An all-women tribe would be a first for Survivor.
>
>>2) MamaKim joins T-Bird and LilKim...attempting to take Ethan with her. Lex bites the dust (MamaKim's not voting off Ethan and she appears to dislike Lex more than Tom). At this point all hell breaks loose<g>. MamaKim and Ethan will remain a Duo with Tom, LilKim and T-Bird all scrambling to make bonds (it reminds me of some sort of electron thingy...making and breaking links in an attempt to get stable...but I am certainly weird.) All politics after Lex's oust would be extremely fluid and unstable. E/MK/T might re-unite to pagong the other two, Tom might feel betrayed enough to unite with _both_ the other women to strike back. E/T might be so shocked by MamaKim's actions that they take KimP under their wing in order to take her out. The list goes on and on and on...

This is IT. I think you've totally hit it on the head here. This is the excitement that MB has been hoping for all season long. It's finally here. Goodbye, Lex, and then, maybe goodbye Tom. The girls rule! Yeah!

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Hobbs of Mich 24 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 02:54 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
I've posted this under another thread before I got here but I'll repost it cause it fits better here.

Franks vote for Kim J is for T-birds plan. Remember at the switch both sides learned all the dirt and votes from the other side through Frank and T-bird and Kim J and Ethan. Remember that Tom would drop votes on Clearance to keep him on the outs. Now T-bird can convince Kim J that Tom did just that because he knew he could with enough votes going to Frank. If they all voted for one of the Old Boron it would not shake things up. Look at how it shook Lex to the core and dropped him like a rock. They try it with Kim J to get her to think the men are setting her up as they did Clearance and get her to go with T-Bird and Kim P...

Will it work....we shall see....

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herewiss13 8 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 02:24 AM (EST)
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22. "RE: Why did T-Bird Vote Frank?"
>Now T-bird can convince Kim J that Tom did just that because he >knew he could with enough votes going to Frank.

Unfortunately, this tactic requires MamaKim not to think about who Frank voted for. Granted, not all votes were shown, but MamaKim would have to be _heat-addled_ not to immediately realize that her vote came from Frank.

This does not even begin to raise the issue of hand-writing recognition.

...also, the minute Teresa tries this and fails, MamaKim becomes completely unstickable from E/T. You don't overtly (and ineptly) manipulate a manipulator and get away with it.

Eric

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 01:15 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
She is in a good position now. If Lex does not win Immunity, KimJ could vote him out as part of the womens alliance or as part the T/E/KJ alliance, but she is secure under Ethan's wing and has no real reason to defect...

If Kelly's friends list is still intact, which it seems to be, then she will not. KimP will be voted out next.

Krautboy

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heymikey 238 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 02:56 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I don't think MamaKim will switch because:

I've read in the boards somewhere that the season finale of Survivor 3 is on January 10, where the final four will be competing against each other. If you actually look at the previous Survivor shows, Survivor 1's season finale consists of the final 4 (based on the Tagi Alliance) and Survivor 2's season finale consists of the final 3 (based on the remaining members of the I-forgot-the-name group).
If the speculation is true that Survivor 3's season finale will start with the final 4 people remaining, there is a good chance that the final four would consist of the remaining Boran members. If, for any reason, MamaKim switched, there will be 2 alliances with 3 members each. There is no point in starting the season finale with the final four where 3 of those people have an alliance and the other person is an outcast. If that would happen, then it would be better for the producers of Survivor to start the season finale with 3 members rather than with 4.

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speedstr22 7 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 03:31 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
Sigh. I have to say that since I've come onto this board, none of my reasoning worked out. I tried for the complicated with brandon's strategy and that bombed, and then I tried to keep it simple and logical by predicting kimp's boot this week and THAT bombed too. I suppose I said somewhere that if it wasn't kimp then it would be frank or lex out but I was sure that tom and ethan would have felt uncomfortable taking out frank over kimp. I guess I was wrong.

So this is just my two cents on observations for next week. I don't know if mamakim will switch. I think she's still too much with ethan to openly betray ethan.... unless ethan did some backstabbing himself!! I think the only way mamakim will take someone out from the old boran tribe is if the rest of old boran okay it (Except the person being booted of course).

So it's definitely possible that mamakim and t will convince ethan and tom to vote for LEX next week. Lex has already proven himself an immunity threat by winning two in a row. Another win and people might start being afraid that he might do an immunity sweep. But say lex DOESN'T win immunity next week. That would leave him, t and kimp as TC targets. I truly believe only one of those three will be booted next week. Because t and kimp are only 2 to boran's four, ethan, mamakim and tom might feel it justified to vote out lex. One, because he is such an immunity threat. Two, because he betrayed old boran by voting with brandon last TC. This would be the perfect reason for them to say that they are justified in booting him so early.

So I guess the next episode will be where my reasoning on the ftte thread will work out or not. If it doesn't, I'll be satisfied in knowing that I'm the worst spoiler this board has ever seen! Lol. I guess you could switch kimp and frank in my order of booties and it would still work.

So I'm going out on a limb and saying that t and mamakim will be able to convince tom and ethan to vote out lex - if t or kimp get's immunity that would help them push for lex's vote as well. That way mamakim would be voting the way kimp and t want her to vote but at the same time, not betraying ethan and tom. Mamakim would then have to decide to switch her alliance to old samburu or stay with boran and I think she'll stay with boran. Then kimp would be out and the "truth" will be told. Mamakim has always been aligned with ethan and always will. The only way t will be able to advance is if she wins immunity.

LEX IS A GONER

But I really wouldn't trust I word I wrote, cause I've been wrong this whole time!! LOL...

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 10:29 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
>If, for any reason, MamaKim switched, there will be 2 alliances
>with 3 members each.

As we've seen happen again and again in this Survivor, people tend to turn on those who have switched alliances or the person switching alliances can go back over. I believe that while we *may* see two alliances of 3 people each in the next episode, one person gets booted and then Kim J can go back to Ethan if Ethan makes a plea to her.

Let's say Kim J switches and Lex gets booted. Ethan can then convince Kim J that they need to target Tom in the next episode and they need to band together as old Borans. Final four: Ethan-KimJ-Teresa-KimP. Kim J still has Ethan with her and she still has two other women with her in camp. Of course, Ethan can probably win IC here and the Final 3 IC to keep himself alive and possibly carry Kim J. along with him, which might be what Kim J is hoping for all along.


>There is no point in starting the season finale with the final
>four where 3 of those people have an alliance and the other
>person is an outcast. If that would happen, then it
>would be better for the producers of Survivor to start
>the season finale with 3 members rather than with 4.

The thing is... I think it's going to be either an all-Boran final 4 or a 2-2 split. Having a 2-2 split will make for better TV going into the final four episode than having a 2-1 split or 3-0 Boran advantage going into a final three episode.


"It's just funny seeing people that are matched up, everyone has a partner now and everyone's happy. And boy, my camping trip just went to hell."
Frank Garrison, Dec. 13/01

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bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 03:47 AM (EST)
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12. "History is against Kim J switching"
LAST EDITED ON 12-21-01 AT 03:48 AM (EST)

I have come to the conclusion that Kim J will probably NOT switch to an all woman alliance next week!!!! And I do this because of these 2 reasons:

1) Her ties with Ethan, Tom and Lex might help her to believe that she is in a good enough position to be in the final 3, where she just needs to win the final immunity to almost garantee a million bucks.

2) The vidcaps and the last episode have shown Teresa campaigning an all-woman alliance. Like with Brandon and his prediction, if it is shown on the preview, IT PROBABLY DOESN'T WORK OUT.

I do know that there are arguments for Kim J switching, and I think they make good sense. Here are the some of the reasons for Kim J to join:

1) Last Season's Survivor showed that when the tribe in the majority was up by 2 people, they got rid of excess baggage in their own tribe.

2) Kim J would have a better chance at getting into the final 3 with KimP and T-bird than with the Old Borans.

Those are very good reasons for her to switch sides, cause she may be the #4 person in Boran, which may mean she is the next Boran to get casted out. I don't think she believes that though. I think she belives she is the 3rd person in the T/E alliance, which with the final immunity, cna get her into the final 2 with no problems!! This may even be true, which leads me to believe that T-Bird's manipulative ass will get the boot next episode.

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Afreaqua 181 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 10:02 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I think there's NO WAY that Kim J will switch her alliance this late in the game because what we've seen so far is all her talk about loyalty. This is why she was so pi**ed at Kelly because she thought Kelly wasn't loyal and voted for Lex.

If she DOES switch it will be a HUGE surprise to me....but then, this show has been full of surprises hasn't it?

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 10:16 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I doubt if Kim J would switch to join Teresa and Kim P, too much has been made of loyalty and trust within OB and she knows it would cost her in the end. Alternately, she might possibly think she could convince Ethan and Tom to go along with a Lex vote (assuming Lex doesn't win immunity again) in which case they might as well go along with it (however grudgingly) since Lex cannot survive the tie-deadlock rule (and they all know it). If Ethan has loyalty to Lex it would be this ic he would throw to the guy (and, honestly, the amount of split concentration it would have required to have done that in the last ic makes it seriously unlikely it happened there). Anyway, if Lex goes OB still has a 3-2 advantage over OS, and Ethan and Tom would probably only want to take Kim J. along as far as they need her (but that's only how far they were taking her along anyway, perhaps).

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

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shanana banana 658 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 10:47 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
No way will Momma Kim switch --- her loyalties are to Ethan first, Tom second. She will not betray them. I think she feels even more secure now with her alliance since Lex is on the outs. And she even went and told Ethan about the coup to oust him --- forget about it. MK is solid.

I believe Lex is also solid for at least another week. Really, if they're thinking straight, Lex should never be voted off. Anybody who goes up against him in the final two is a sure winner. They better be remembering Colby/Tina. But if loyalty remains stronger than practicality, I think there's a chance Lex will go in the final five, before the last Samboohoo. But until then, I believe he's safe.


shanana banana

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 01:54 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
Kim J guarantees that she will lose if she switches. If she made the final 2, LET would not vote for her as punishment for betraying them. Frank and Brandon would vote for the remaining Samburu instead of her.

IMHO, she has no hope of winning a final 2 vote at this point anyway, but she would slit her own throat if she switched.

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drich61 558 desperate attention whore postings
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12-21-01, 07:21 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
>Kim J guarantees that she will
>lose if she switches.
>If she made the final
>2, LET would not vote
>for her as punishment for
>betraying them. Frank and
>Brandon would vote for the
>remaining Samburu instead of her.
>
>
>IMHO, she has no hope of
>winning a final 2 vote
>at this point anyway, but
>she would slit her own
>throat if she switched.


It is a guaranteed 7-0 vote in the final 2 if she switches to the women alliance. She has also lost Kelly's vote, and wouldn't get Teresa or KimP's votes either.

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Lancerdude74 165 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 04:21 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I don't really think it's so bad to lose a 7-0 vote in the final two when you weren't supposed to be there at all. Besides, I think some of the Samburus would vote for her. If she is really the 4th member of L/E/T/MK alliance she will switch. If not then she is with Ethan or Lex and there will be a final four split. Either way, we will know this week.

Lance

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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 12:07 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I'm gonna stick with the Dust Devil who tells us that a Boron goes this week.
It could be that lecherous ole boil Tom, who finally gets popped after a bourbon-filled night with a Sambura, Teresa or Kim P.
That is if Lex wins the immunity AGAIN! If not, it's definately Lex.
I don't think people are thinking of the JURY at the this point. I think they are solely focused on surviving the Mojo Munchies. I also think MK is ONLY playing for a #3 place or a #2. I don't think she thinks she can win, I think she's doing what we haven't seen so far, playing to be a runner-up. Which is OK, she probably thinks it's awesome that a woman her age has gotten this far in Survivor. You all must note that this hasn't happened before and give Kim Larsen Johnson credit for already making Survivor Herstory. Some applause for the little lady that could, please.
And no, I don't think she will switch, she'll just convince EVERYBODY to vote HER WAY, which is also a kind of winning, dontchathink?
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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 07:43 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I think it is unlikely that she will switch. I think, however, that her decision may be guided by whether she believes the LET alliance is still strong. If LET have made it clear to her that she is destined for fourth place (as she suggested herself in the last episode) she has nothing to lose by joining Teresa and KimP. But I have the strong suspicion that KimJ believes that LET are not going to stick together at final four time. If that is her bet, she is better off staying with her old alliance because alliance switchers are generally viewed quite negatively.

I also agree that MB is making a little too much of this potential switch for it to actually occur. That said--MB loves to break rules that we think he has. Another example of MB reverse psychology? It is also possible that MB is trying to get people to watch the episode and thus is pushing this, and then they will be happy when the switch actually happens. Nevertheless, MB would have to be trying an entirely new approach in promos for this to be the case. Every other time he has suggested a switch in the promos, it NEVER happens (at least not that I can think of).

So that all seems to suggest that OB will stick together and boot KimP or Teresa (or maybe Lex if he is really seen as having been a traitor with the whole Brandon episode).

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littlesplitty 24 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 09:38 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
I agree that MK switching over is obviously questionable, and in support of that I would like to add my two cents of what I thought was the most interesting comment made in the last episode: After Teresa presents MK with an all-woman alliance, she ran straight to Ethan and told him all about it. Now Ethan knows everything, which could prove to be troublesome for the ladies in the end. If he knows what is going down, Teresa could have a big target on her forehead. BUT, aside from all that, I thought THE most interesting comments were the WORDS that MK said to Ethan. She said that she was not only surprised but it also sounded to me like she said she was "pissed" that they confronted her with the idea. THat's when Ethan was like, "Well, it's all they can do" (Something to that effect.) MK seems to be unwilling to ally herself with the other gals, and now Ethan, and I'm sure in turn all the guys, know about the possible alliance, AND MB decided to SHOW us the fact that Ethan now knows. MESSY!!
<><
Splitt
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Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 09:57 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
Why do I think MK is gonna make EVERYbody vote with her? So that she ends up not betraying ANYbody, but she still gets them to do what she wants? How? For instance, convinving them ALLLLL to vote the unpopular Lex out next time? In a landslide! In an avalanche!

But I do agree that whatever MB lays out in the open this time in the show is totally suspect. Yes, Ethan knows, but did he tell the other men, or just keep it to himself? In case he wants to play Teresa and Lil Kim all by himself? Maybe he thinks that he + 3 women might make a fun Final Four.

Ethan is playing a much better game, diplomatically,and politically, so far than people around these parts are giving him credit for. He's not just UTR. He's cool. He's considered. He's cagey. He's careful. He's strategic. And as Tina said, "He's kind. That counts for a lot." Her money was on him way back at the beginning. I think she said this as early as episode two.

Has anybody been tracking her column in US Weekly? Has she been as insightful as Richard was?

zzz, what is the right way to designate MB'S reverse pyschology? Should we name it BM?

Rose Red(Herring)

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zzz 703 desperate attention whore postings
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12-22-01, 11:50 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Will MamaKim Switch?"
>
>zzz, what is the right way
>to designate MB'S reverse pyschology?
>Should we name it BM?

I think trying to read MB's mind is about as useful as a BM--so it sounds good to me.

P.S. For anyone out there that is not familiar with the term "BM", it is a medical term for "bowel movement" or for you kiddies out there a "Number 2".

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