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Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-14-01, 02:17 PM (EST) "Idiots guide to spoiling this show" Okay guys, I haven't really been following the goings on of the spoiler board that much this season, but I have noticed the pathetic record as far as predicting the bootee as well as the sense of frustration for some of the members. So, to help some of you out I am going to provide the simple blueprint you will need to spoil this show successfully. 1. Look to precedent and ignore logic: I know alot of you are shaking your heads every week trying to figure out how Brandon, Lex and the rest could be soooo stupid from week to week while playing this game, but that is where you are making your mistakes. Never try and figure out what the smart thing to do in a certain situation because if there is only ONE thing we have learned from 2 1/2 seasons of this show it is that these people are idiots and they NEVER do the smart thing. If these people were smart then Colby would be a million dollars richer and Rich, Kelly, Rudy and Susan would still be sitting on a log in Borneo trying to break a tie. Therefore, lesson #1 is to always make your predictions based on what a moron would do because that is who we are dealing with. 2. Precedent involving Burn-it and editing: There are two main lessons to be learned from watching how Burn-it edits this show....first of all, the bootee always has face time in the preceding episode and second of all, Burn-it NEVER shows us a successful strategy until he absolutely has to. Therefore, when the Insider clip was released with Brandumb laying out his whole intricate strategy of getting rid of Lex this week that should have triggered off a huge red flag that there was NO way that LEx was going anywhere and that there was no way that Brandumb's strategy was going to work. On a side note, this theory bodes well for Ethan and KimJ in this game since those are the only two people left who we rarely if ever see strategizing...smells like Tina and Colby all over again. As for the face time aspect, everyone here has a pretty good grasp of that so I won't explain it. 3. Occams Razor: One thing we always seem to be saying the day after an episode is how utterly obvious teh bootee was the night before, yet through over analysis everyone still managed to miss it. That is because another lesson we have learned on this show is that the simplest explanation/scenario always seems to unfold every week. The simplest explanation this week was that there were a lot of people that were gonna be mad at Brandumb and that we have learned over the years that when everyone is mad at you, there is a good chance you are getting voted out. 4. ignore long winded speculation posts: This one is just a personal pet peeve of mine, but everytime you see a post that is based purely on speculation and is longer than two paragraphs in length, simply ignore it and move on, its only going to confuse you and they are NEVER right. Sure, they make sense from a logic perspective, but that is because the person writing it is smarter than the players and also has the benefit of being detached from the game. In the future, just ignore those posts cause they will only get you in trouble. When pursing the spoiler board, look for factual evidence (i.e verified spoilers, insider clips, vidcaps) and ignore everything else that is here, the rest is a waste of your time. There, that is my four step process to easily spoiling this show, now lets take a quick look at how I used my very own process to easily predict last night's bootee, below is the text to my message on the vote thresd, take a look and see how easy it is... ...haven't followed any of the spoilers this year, but from what I have heard from other people there really haven't been any spoilers this year anyway. So, I am forced to work off of game logic and precedent. Game logic dictates that Brandon pulls off the biggest coup in Survivor history with his two part plan that he started last week. But, precedent, Occams Razor and what we know about Burn-it dictate otherwise. First of all, Brandon's strategy is obviously the smart thing to do, yet one look at Survivor precedent begs teh obvious question, when have the Survivors EVER done the smart thing strategically? Why should that trend change now. Also, when has Burn-it ever given us a look at a winning strategy in advance? Remember how much he hid the Tina/Colbster alliance from us....so, why would he let us know about Brandon's big plan? The reason is simple, because it doesn't work. So, lets look at Occams Razor.....everyone is Sambura is mad at Brandon, Boran even without Kelly would still have a one person advantage if they got rid of Brandon tonight, Brandon will draw suspicion from both sides for the backpeddling and explaning that he has to do tonight....therefore, based on those factors, the only obvious bootee tonight is Brandon alright kids, I hope that helps you out, good luck next week.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this s... janisella 12-14-01 1  RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this s... diamond 12-14-01 2  RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this s... Outfrontgirl 12-14-01 3  RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this s... Dalton 12-14-01 4  RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this s... TheWanderer 12-14-01 5  Good to see you AyaK 12-14-01 6    RE: Good to see you managerr 12-14-01 7    Agreed about honor... of course, we... Outfrontgirl 12-14-01 9        good point Ayak and OFG shakes the clown 12-14-01 10            Great post Outfrontgirl 12-15-01 11  *waves to Shakes* LadyT 12-14-01 8  RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this s... fyrenice 12-15-01 12    Factual Evidence IceCat 12-15-01 13        RE: Factual Evidence Outfrontgirl 12-15-01 14            Why the ratings are going down, dow... Rose Red 12-15-01 15                RE: Why the ratings are going down,... Outfrontgirl 12-15-01 17        RE: Factual Evidence fyrenice 12-15-01 16            RE: Factual Evidence Rose Red 12-15-01 18            Actually... You Missed My Point... IceCat 12-15-01 19                RE: Actually... You Missed My Point... munson 12-15-01 20                RE: Actually... You Missed My Point... fyrenice 12-15-01 21                    Agree to Disagree... IceCat 12-15-01 23                        RE: Agree to Disagree... fyrenice 12-15-01 25  Rule #2 on editing Outfrontgirl 12-15-01 22    Boring? diamond 12-15-01 24        KELLY spoils again. Rose Red 12-15-01 27    RE: Rule #2 on editing fyrenice 12-15-01 26  Hey... you talkin' to me??? sleeeve 12-16-01 28    Agreed... IceCat 12-16-01 29

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janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-14-01, 02:47 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this show" OK Mr. Red-nosed smarty-pants, What's going to happen in the next episode? Chag Sameach. J.   Top

diamond 2307 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 12-14-01, 03:54 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this show" Shakes, I wish you would post more. I always love reading what you write. Damn that Love Cruise for taking you away from this board. Alright, enough fawning. Seriously, my Brandon pick this week was the first time I tried to think in the way you outlined above. My (albeit speculative) theory about the mechanics of how the vote would go down was a little off, but my basic conclusion was right, and it was the only thing that made sense to me in the context of the limited facts we had and, more importantly, the way the show and the people were being edited. I tend to avoid most of the wild speculation mainly because it makes my head spin (not literally, but that would be funny), and because most of it, like you said, tends to be wrong. The only problem with your method (and really any method of spoiling not based on blind guessing) is that it doesn't quite work when fundamental aspects of the rules are hidden from us (e.g., the twist, the merge date, etc.). But there's not much we can do about that. diamond   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 04:10 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this show" Shakes, I am SO glad to see you posting. Please bring back your revolving clown head. That head makes such a statement. (btw, I am serious about that. I love that sig pic.) I agree with every one of your principles. It would have been nice if you had posted them earlier on, thus saving me the trouble of working out this theory on my own, but better late than never. >>but everytime you see a post that is based purely on speculation and is longer than two paragraphs in length, simply ignore it and move on As a person who's afflicted with the need to take more than 4 paragraphs at any given time to present EVIDENCE, but am sometimes right, I hope that rule only applies for posts that are pure speculation AND long. I figure that must be what you mean because you quoted your own EXCELLENT post and I see SIX paragraphs. Stick around please! I/we missed you. With every mistake, we must surely be learning--George Harrison   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-14-01, 05:03 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this show" Oh Wow, I have to say first off that if we are going with an "IDIOTS GUIDE" to spoiling; thanks be we've got the RIGHT person to lead us!! WTG, Bozo!! (ROFL) As opposed to the previous two seasons, Burn-it must have devised a pre-lim test "How to plan ahead and play the end game" and these 16 chosen contestants scored the worst!! I agree that Ethan and Mama Kim are playing to win --- but you failed to mention Teresa!! This board has voted Teresa as the "bootee" THREE TIMES and she looked like a "goner" in the original Samburu; looked like a "goner" as a Nu-Boran; and here we are at E-10 (after Clarence/Kelly/Brandon are gone) and TERESA is still there. Don't think Teresa hasn't been "strategizing" and mostly she has been doing it without really any alliance or support (except Frank--who is like no help whatsoever!!). Following the Idiots Guide -- surely Lil Kim should be the next one booted because she hasn't done anything to anybody and everybody pretty much likes her. SHE MUST GO!! Dalton   Top

TheWanderer 267 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-14-01, 05:16 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this show" I agree with you Shakes. By your guidelines then, in alphabetical order (no, not a Sean-thing) either Frank, Lex or Tom goes next. Just by observation, not a stop-watch, it appears those three had about an equal amount of face time. All things being equal, that may not be the rule-of-thumb to follow for the next boot. If we us the same logic (at least the one I used ) for Brandon's boot, that means Lex goes next: a) He is disliked not only by OS, but now by OB b) He is an immunity threat Although it is now a 4 to 3 OB advantage, if any OS wins IC, then Tom will vote with them at Frank's urging to oust Lex. To me Occam's Razor dictates that unless Lex wins IC, he is done.   Top

AyaK 10426 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 05:20 PM (EST) 6. "Good to see you" LAST EDITED ON 12-14-01 AT 05:23 PM (EST) shakes, I'm glad that you were able to come back and toot your own horn this week. It's nice that you got the pick right, too! Kinda makes up for last year. Hope you stick around long enough for the next two boots.... Oh, and I've rarely seen one of your posts that wasn't more than two paragraphs in length -- not even when you just are telling people what bar you hang out in! And ... these people aren't dumb. They are HONORABLE. They stick to their promises. That's why Colby passed up a guaranteed million last year against Keith. Remember, this show is largely about honor, which is what you'd expect from a show made by a former military officer who still holds military values dear to his heart and chooses his casts accordingly. MB breaks these people down through the living conditions and starvation, and they end up reverting to their core values. Yeah, the money is important, but what other show on TV has (or needs) "mercy boots"? TIT? Love Cruise? Big Brother? Think again. Even Richard Hatch never went back on his word!   Top

managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 12-14-01, 05:43 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Good to see you" Everything you have said makes sense, but Occam's Razor definitely has not worked this year. There have been more "out of nowhere" bootings than ever before.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 10:11 PM (EST) 9. "Agreed about honor... of course, we cannot discount dumb" LAST EDITED ON 12-14-01 AT 10:22 PM (EST) I agree, AyaK, that honor plays a big part in the game and that's an excellent point about Burnett's military background. >>Even Richard Hatch never went back on his word! Of course Rudy told Richard that Rudy and his SEAL buddies would seek him out afterwards if he were to break his word... another variation of military background coming into play... The reverse side of honor would be trust broken, and we have seen big "illogical" turns in Survivor due to suspicion or actual betrayal: Sue and Kelly; KimP/Brandon; Lex-Tom-Ethan starting to crack due to Lex having a "dual" level of giving his word... So players seem to be illogical or dumb in eyes of the Spoilers when they react to other human beings on an emotional level. That's part of being human, no? Sometimes they value relationships formed in the game more than money. Moronic idea, Michael? Brandon said today in his chat that when KimP wouldn't trust him again he basically gave up and decided it was time to let the game go. He wasn't too dumb to try to rejoin Old Samburu; he stopped trying after losing his one friend's belief in him. (I don't just take things at face value from Brandon; however this rang true.) Then again, some players truly do behave like morons. Brandon got out a zinger on Silas (Strength and Honor!)in his chat: Q: Was it hard for Brandon with Silas there running things? Brandon: "Silas' intellect really would not allow him to control anyone else." I guess we need a Silas Principle variation on Occam's Razor to predict the moves of truly moronic players...<ping> Edited to fix some truly dumb typos.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-14-01, 11:42 PM (EST) 10. "good point Ayak and OFG" > Sometimes they value relationships >formed in the game more >than money. Moronic idea, >Michael? > ...sure, if were talking about $100,000 and a trip around a terrorist infested anti-American world, but it seems like a whole different scale when you're talking about a cool mil. Actually, in all seriousness, AyaK and OFG raise a good point regarding honor and wanting to keep your word and maintain your valued friendships in these games even at the expense of your own chances of winning. I don't think Burn-it's military background has as much to do with it as the fact that the people who make it onto these shows feel such a strong bond with each other just for simply making it onto the show....for ALL of these reality tv contestants, beating out 1000's of people to get on a show and then going on the show itself is the experience of a lifetime, something that you will remember forever. Therfore, it is only natural to look at your fellow castmembers as people that you will be connected to for the rest of your life...therefore, it makes sense that you will take great care to NOT damage any bonds or friendships that you form along the way, even if it means possibly blowing a chance at winning. I'm glad you subtly brought up the parallel b/w myself on LC and Brandumb in these last couple of episodes b/c the two situations were very similar...I knew exactly what he was talking about towards teh end of the episode and in his final words...but, unlike Brandumb, I was able to successfully explain myself to my friends who felt betrayed and as a result of that I stayed in the game....of course I also left some very unhappy and bitter people in my wake which made it extremely difficult for me to win in the end.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 00:10 AM (EST) 11. "Great post" Shakes, that was beautifully explained by you have been there, where none of us has... Yes, it's quite the parallel with Love Cruise, which was the most extreme version of any reality game I've seen--where players got really upset with anyone who even admitted they wanted to win or were playing it like a game. As if that made them phonies... Survivor of course is set up to be cutthroat, and then people are surprised when they can't be ruthless enough, whereas LoveCruise was set up to be romantic and people seemed surprised when it started to be about betrayal and lies. Since you brought up the analogy of yourself to Brandumb, you might appreciate this quote from his chat, in answer to the "what is your one regret and what would you do differently if you had to play the game over" standard question. B: My only regret would be that I didn't make time to explain to Old Samburu about my grand plan before I just did it. Boy, he was sure between a rock and a hard place with that one, or rather, as Tom said this time, "between a crack and a hard place!" *makes note to replay the tape and get the proper wording of that gem*   Top

LadyT 5567 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-14-01, 06:10 PM (EST) 8. "*waves to Shakes*" You know, thats how I thought when I picked Brandon. Based on the editing, and the fact that Frank was all over the place last ep, I think Frank is next. Is this post too long for you Shakes?   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-15-01, 00:21 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Idiots guide to spoiling this show" LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 00:23 AM (EST) Great guide, Shakes. I have only one arguement though involving rule number 4. >4. ignore long winded speculation >posts: > >This one is just a personal >pet peeve of mine, but >everytime you see a post >that is based purely on >speculation and is longer than >two paragraphs in length, simply >ignore it and move on, >its only going to confuse >you and they are NEVER >right. Since when were there actual SPOILER posts based on something other than speculation. All you get from posts based on factual evidence are speculation about that very evidence. It also contradicts what you said in rule number 2. Burnett is not going to give anything away he can possibly prevent. So until then, I will continue with my frequently wrong, long-winded posts that speculate on the faulty facutual evidence MB gives us. Sure, they make >sense from a logic perspective, >but that is because the >person writing it is smarter >than the players and also >has the benefit of being >detached from the game. Thanks. >In the future, just ignore >those posts cause they will >only get you in trouble. > When pursing the spoiler >board, look for factual evidence >(i.e verified spoilers, insider clips, >vidcaps) and ignore everything else >that is here, the rest >is a waste of your >time. Please, will you let me know which posts in those factual evidence threads are not speculation so I can read them. lol > >There, that is my four step >process to easily spoiling this >show, now lets take a >quick look at how I >used my very own process >to easily predict last night's >bootee, below is the text >to my message on the >vote thread, take a look >and see how easy it >is... > Thanks again for a great thread. I am fairly new to posting on this board, but I am quite aware of your work. It is good to have you back. Fyre   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 01:11 AM (EST) 13. "Factual Evidence" >Since when were there actual SPOILER posts based on something >other than speculation. All you get from posts based on factual >evidence are speculation about that very evidence. It also >contradicts what you said in rule number 2. Burnett is not >going to give anything away he can possibly prevent. So until >then, I will continue with my frequently wrong, long-winded >posts that speculate on the faulty facutual evidence MB gives us. There are many sources of factual evidence... - Video captures (still frame and full motion). - Photo evidence (Mikes gloves, satellite, etc) - Contestant comments outside of the game (first booted's friends, etc) - Witness statements re: contestant travel on Thursday nights. So there is an extremely important difference between spoiling and speculation... I choose to limit my activities to dealing with video capture analysis and other forms of spoiling based upon evidence. I choose to ignore the pointless and rather tiresome practice of speculation which is usually based upon peoples interpretations of a filtered representation of events that may or may not have occured. The frequency of my posts is down significantly this season due to the sheer lack of useable video evidence. It's like trying to predict the ending of a poorly written mystery novel, where the author (MB) is taking liberties on how the narrative unfolds and does not care a single iota for logical character development. The vidcappers and analyzers have not had much to work with this year. MB's staff have resorted to creating their preview sequences using caps from episodes that are out of sequence (lex's skulland immunity necklace) and has even resorted to the use of computer based image manipulation (eg: buff color switching). If you combine this with the idea of "Rules a la Love Cruise" you have a TV show that is less easy to predict but is also a less enjoyable show... for a spoiler. On the other hand, the show is pure heaven for the speculator.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 01:37 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Factual Evidence" Ice, I share your frustration with the lack of good previews. Either Burnett is shooting himself in the foot to maintain secrecy or CBS has lost interest in promoting the show. Does anyone know what is going on? Is it the war or the low ratings that are reducing the coverage? The Early Show previews were great last year. There would be longer and more varied previews, and they rarely included people shots from other episodes (except the TC shots). It happened, but we still had a lot to work with and it was fun. CBS is still running a Survivor preview with great frequency during prime time here, but it's so short and weak! No story, as if MB has no faith that anyone's following the story, and are only tuning in on a spotty basis to see lions, buffaloes, and boils. Twice now the only buzz from the preview has been from the flies! It's better to have Spoilers guessing the outcome than to have the public's interest waning from lack of build-up, IMHO, and soon he will lose the Spoilers too. It's only fun if we're able to get it right once in awhile. But I miss your posts Ice, I really do, so please post more! PS. Did you notice how the shot of KimP rubbing her tummy and saying "Yummy" wasn't on the show at all? *has a hunch Ice DID scrutinize that vidcap for a spoiler*   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-15-01, 02:46 AM (EST) 15. "Why the ratings are going down, down,...." >Does anyone know what is >going on? Is it >the war or the low >ratings that are reducing the >coverage? > OFG, as far as TV ratings are concerned, I've got factual information - FROM ALL THESE PEOPLE WHO USED TO WATCH SURVIVOR AND NOW DON'T. I guess that makes what I'm about to say Spoilers and not speculation because it's all true. I live in New York, and New York was as obsessed with Survivor as any other place until Sept. 11. Since we all here had a devasting tragedy to deal with and are still dealing with on a daily basis, people want to escape. To me, SURVIVOR is the ultimate form of escapist entertainment because it's so f*****ng absorbing. It's addictive. I'm obsessed with it. However, almost everyone I know is not. I have trouble finding people who even want to talk about it this season. Of course, New Yorkers have a lot of other things on their minds, and while I think entertainment that is truly diverting is a great source of healing, many people are just too lost in the events that have overtaken us to even be cheered up. Unless it's by "Friends." And when "Friends" started beating Survivor's a**, they should have immediately switched it back to Wednesday night, where they would not have had the same competition. A lot of it has to do with simply the superficial reality of AFRICA IS NOT GLAMOUROUS. Not that I thought the Australian outback was particularly glamourous, but the CONTESTANTS were. And that was the highest rated Survivor, when MB had the prettiest people doing the nastiest things(think Jerri). Yeah, that makes it like a soap opera, but look at how popular soaps still are after all these years. They are what traditionally holds many of the networks' advertising base together. MB needs a body of water nearby for all the girls and guys to get wet in and glisten. Maralyn and Tina even looked attractive when wet. And Colby sure did! Africa is dusty, dirty, the rancid water hole thing alone turned off many devoted Survivor viewers. "He crossed a line with that," said one devoted former fan to me,"He went too far. I don't want to see that." And Palua Tiga was GORGEOUS, you've got to admit, and Africa, continues, on a weekly basis to be HORRIFYING. I have to admit I love all this harsh stuff myself, but I would NEVER want to go there now. The bad water right up front in the first episodes(though they corrected that later on) and the lack of a lake or a river or an ocean. What's the most important part of Survivor? as Jeff Anal Probst is wont to say. Well, from a telegenic standpoint, it's the water. So seeing these people being tortured by thrist,at the beginning of the series is much more off-putting evidently than seeing them starve to death, which is also somehow more glamourous. MB corrected this eventually, it seems, but again, at the beginning, when people are getting to know the characters, Diane's and then JESSIE's getting sick, too, was the coup de grace. It's not fun to watch people nearly DIE from a game show. It's like the last two survivors were sumptuous, slick feature films, and this is one is an edgy indie flick. Not everyone's taste, but it's OK by me. I'm as engrossed as ever. And I don't think it's the contestants. I liked all of them immediately. Esp. Ethan. Also, S3 was really sandbagged by Bush's pre-emption of the all important first episode. It didn't help that Diane's ousting was INCREDIBLY similar to the first boot of Deb's on the last show. Lots of people thought it was deja vu all over again, but Deb had the Superbowl audience lead in to watch her go. It's a big difference. So much of TV is hype. If it isn't ALL hype. And S3 had no hype opening up this season. And while you can jump into a fictional series, where basically the episodes are all self-contained story-lines, if you miss that first episode as many people I know did, you're kinda lost as a viewer. Survivor is EVENT TV. It's not for the casual viewer. You can't miss an episode and then tune in again a week or two later, because, especially this year, the story is constantly changing. Also, while I think the Twist was a great idea, it's made the show even MORE confusing for the casual viewer. I think it's deepened it and enhanced it and the tribal lines are going, going, gone....but when I urge friends to tune in, they complain they can't follow it. And Tom does need to be sub-titled. The only friends of mine that totally adore him are the ones with Close Captioning! Also, the fact that ANOTHER Survivor is on its way soon set on a beautiful island is making people feel that "Well, the REAL Survivor, the one I like, on a tropical island, is coming up soon. Why should I waste time watching this gritty, disturbing one?" Also, I have to say Brandon's ouster has hit me particularly hard. I felt a light went out of the show for me, and his and Lex's treatment because of their "strange love affair" as Kelly put it, was really painful for me to watch. I understand all too well, the hostility a same-sex couple faces, even if, as in Brandon and Lex's case, their feeling for each other may have been totally platonic. Or maybe it wasn't. I will still keep watching, of course, but I just think the rather rampant homophobia exhibited this past week, although it was not couched in overt terms still rankled and disturbed me, and many gay dials all over this city were switching off Survivor, maybe forever.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 04:03 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Why the ratings are going down, down,...." Rose Red, Thank you, that explanation for the most part resonated with me. Brandon said something funny today about how ripped off he felt having no swimming water--and that when he heard about Tahiti don't think he didn't send Burnett a snippy email... I can't agree though that Lex and Brandon were broken up as a couple. Kelly was just dramatizing with "strange love affair." Lex is a surfer from liberal diverse Santa Cruz who no doubt enjoyed Brandon's sharp wit. Brandon's really very smart and entertaining. Ethan had to nip that alliance in the bud. It's a given of the game that core alliances turn on each other at the end of the game. They do not start ADDING people. Ethan was rightly concerned that his F2 pact with Lex was at risk. It's very clear why Brandon got booted; he himself was amazed he lasted for 27 days when he's never even been camping before. So this time the gay man and the homophobe didn't form a Dicque/Rudy alliance. Instead they became opponents. Don't switch off the TV for that reason. Tahiti awaits us, plus the scheming in Africa is just heating up! I am sure there's going to be rampant redneck-phobia coming to camp soon.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-15-01, 03:28 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Factual Evidence" LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 03:33 AM (EST) Icecat, I share your pain, but I believe you missed my point. >There are many sources of factual >evidence... No arguement that the following are factual. My point was that any post regarding these are pure speculation. Case in point. Last episode and the hat. Are you saying you were spoiling not speculating when it was discussed that this must be either Lex's hat or Tom's? And which was it when you were determining whether it was a gray shirt or gray shorts. I agree that it was factual to say it was a hat, it was gray, that was Kim' bra ect. Beyond that is only speculation. > >- Video captures (still frame and >full motion). >- Photo evidence (Mikes gloves, satellite, >etc) >- Contestant comments outside of the >game (first booted's friends, etc) > >- Witness statements re: contestant travel >on Thursday nights. > >So there is an extremely important >difference between spoiling and speculation... It seems to be extremely fine. >I choose to ignore the >pointless and rather tiresome practice >of speculation which is usually >based upon peoples interpretations of >a filtered representation of events >that may or may not >have occured. Vidcaps, pictures, comments, etc. are not a filtered representaion? I believe it is commonly agreed on this board that MB carefully monitors previews and contestants. The frequency >of my posts is down >significantly this season due to >the sheer lack of useable >video evidence. Do pick up. You are one of the most pleasureable reads out there. > > >>If you combine this with the >idea of "Rules a la >Love Cruise" you have a >TV show that is less >easy to predict but is >also a less enjoyable show... > for a spoiler. > >On the other hand, the show >is pure heaven for the >speculator. I definitely agree with you that the vidcaps, pictures, and comments have helped little this season. However, I think the difference that you make between spoiler and speculater is thin. You spoil based on the things stated above, yes. You do, however, spoil based on moves made by the players thus far. I personally love to analyze each players moves and behaviors. However, the "factual evidence" is the basis for it all. We speculated whether the hat means that Tom or Lex win RC. We speculated that an unlikely date means Brandon and Frank. It is also factual evidence that they have the most dilike for each other. Factual evidence goes beyond vidcaps, pictures, comments, and statements. It is also factual that the contestants have continually reacted, expressed, and given certain nonverbal cues. To spoil, you must speculate. I too agree that MB is giving us little in previews. My take is that he is trying to hype the suspense in the public. Oh my! what is going to happen next. However, I think the opposite is happening. I agree with RoseRed that it is just not glamorous enough for the general public. People watch reality tv to enjoy others hardships and forget about their own. However, they still want it to be the ideal. It is even better if it is beautiful and smart people having the hardships. It is harder to forget about your own problems when the cast reminds you of yourself. Besides, everyone wants eyecandy. Fyre   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-15-01, 11:35 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Factual Evidence" It is harder >to forget about your own >problems when the cast reminds >you of yourself Thanks for your support, fyre. The above quote sums up almost everything that is perceived to be wrong with Survivor this season, although, personally I am obsessed with it as ever. It's not "kewl" to say you watch it now, as it was in the past year. It's "out" now, not "in" here in NYC, at least. Perhaps Survivor 4 will put it back on top again. I think Ethan is gonna be a BIG star. If he wins and becomes the S3 spokesperson replacing trecherous, metallic Tina, THAT may help things, too. I'm beginning to think Colby's handing the mil over to Tina may have hurt people's perceptions of the show, too. A lot of people felt cheated. If Colby had been the spokesperson this time around, I think that would've helped with the ratings, too. And why isn't Colby doing more promoting of the show, commentating, etc.? Because he's being handled by William Morris, and they, his agents, probably are asking for too much money. So we have Richard and Sue on the Early Show, and Tina who is contractually bound to do this, and Jerri as co-hostess on E! of the Survivor Pre-Show, where she is suddenly sympathetic.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 12:01 PM (EST) 19. "Actually... You Missed My Point..." My discussion had absolutely nothing to do with TV ratings... My point has to do with the difference in two things: Spoiling vs. Speculation Spoiling has to do with being able to point to something on the screen and saying this is the same camera angle that appears in the satellite picture or this is so-and-so's t-shirt with the beans stains on it. I am contrasting this with the practice of saying 'I think so-and-so is thinking this' or 'so-and-so will do that'. Statements of this nature cannot possibly have any reliable evidence to back them up. If you intend to answer that you can tell what they will do in a future episode by watching what they did in previous episodes then please save the typing because you are simply inviting a good, savage (and well-deserved) flaming from some of the more quick tempered folks around here. Now... as far as TV ratings are concerned, that's the network's problem. They are the ones who chose what shows they go up against and how they advertise. It's more of a bashers/fanatics topic than a spoilers topic. I think we all agree that putting the Survivors back on a nice sandy beach and putting a couple less pasty white thighs on the screen would be a very good thing... but that too belongs in the bashers realm. IceCats Definition of Spoiling: Predicting the outcome of certain aspects of the show via the artful presentation of evidence that exists outside the context of the dominant narrative. Translation: Find the stuff that MB doesn't want you to see.   Top

munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-15-01, 02:09 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Actually... You Missed My Point..." >Spoiling has to do with being >able to point to something >on the screen and saying >this is the same camera >angle that appears in the >satellite picture or this is >so-and-so's t-shirt with the beans >stains on it. OK. So now that you've identified a particular location or the owner of the t-shirt (and it is truly amazing the way you and some others can do this), the question is what do you do with this information? For most of us, this factual information just isn't enough and nothing has really been spoiled unless you can speculate a result based on this factual information, i.e., who won the challenge, what's the reward, and most importantly, who gets booted? In the absence of spoilers, all we can do is guess based on whatever criteria we feel is important (face time, story arcs, game logic). I >am contrasting this with the >practice of saying 'I think >so-and-so is thinking this' or >'so-and-so will do that'. >Statements of this nature cannot >possibly have any reliable evidence >to back them up. >If you intend to answer >that you can tell what >they will do in a >future episode by watching what >they did in previous episodes >then please save the typing >because you are simply inviting >a good, savage (and well-deserved) >flaming from some of the >more quick tempered folks around >here. I, for one, appreciate a good deal of the creative, well-written, yet sometimes illogical, speculation posted in this forum. And I guess you're right, Ice. This is the spoiling forum. Maybe Webby will consider bringing back the Speculation forum? Any support out there? >IceCats Definition of Spoiling: > >Predicting the outcome of certain aspects >of the show via the >artful presentation of evidence that >exists outside the context of >the dominant narrative. Wonderful definition! And I, too, wish you would post more often, even if the purpose is only to point out inconsistencies with factual evidence. One of the reasons this site has been the best of the Survivor sites is posters (now mods) like you have refused to let others get away with sloppy thinking and illogical theories. Keep us honest, Ice.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-15-01, 02:19 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Actually... You Missed My Point..." LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 02:35 PM (EST) >My discussion had absolutely nothing to >do with TV ratings... If you look at my above post, my comments on tv ratings was an addendum. At no point did I say that you were discussing tv ratings. Being that you were not the only poster on this thread do you think that maybe I could have been addressing more than one post. > >My point has to do with >the difference in two things: > > >Spoiling vs. Speculation > >Spoiling has to do with being >able to point to something >on the screen and saying >this is the same camera >angle that appears in the >satellite picture or this is >so-and-so's t-shirt with the beans >stains on it. I >am contrasting this with the >practice of saying 'I think >so-and-so is thinking this' or >'so-and-so will do that'. >Statements of this nature cannot >possibly have any reliable evidence >to back them up. I believe I made my point in the above post on the distinction you are trying to create. Anything beyond stating the fact that it is present is speculating. You "think" that that is a rope for RC behind Teresa. Factual- there is a rope behind Teresa. Speculation- it is for reward challenge. However, this is just my view. I am simply stating it not critizing you for yours. >If you intend to answer >that you can tell what >they will do in a >future episode by watching what >they did in previous episodes >then please save the typing >because you are simply inviting >a good, savage (and well-deserved) >flaming from some of the >more quick tempered folks around >here. Oh I'm sorry. I must have had the wrong impression. I thought this board was open to all types of spoiling. I did not realize the type approved of was so defined. I also was under the impression the board's purpose was to spoil the show not flame the people who's opinion's one does not agree with. If flaming is well-deserved because one speculates that Frank will stick with Teresa all the way because he has shown that honor is important to him. Or that KImP will be the next Samburu to go because she has the most loose ends. Or that- well you get the picture. Then I guess I better go to half of the threads on the board at present and start flaming away. Obviously these people deserve a good flaming for not basing it on what you consider factual evidence. Keep us in line, Icecat. Well, this is not my style and I personally enjoy getting other peoples opinions of what they think may happen next episode. For me, it makes for a broader more interesting forum. By the way, I never stated that I knew for sure what they would do. I stated that ones reactions and nonverbal cues are also factual evidence from which one can attempt to spoil. > >Now... as far as TV ratings >are concerned, that's the network's >problem. They are the >ones who chose what shows >they go up against and >how they advertise. It's >more of a bashers/fanatics topic >than a spoilers topic. > >I think we all agree that >putting the Survivors back on >a nice sandy beach and >putting a couple less pasty >white thighs on the screen >would be a very good >thing... but that too belongs >in the bashers realm. I was not bashing. Personally, I am enjoying Africa. Bashing I believe would fall more under the comments about MB's editing and such. Seems like I read that somewhere on this thread. I was simply agreeing with anothers theory. I apologize if it appeared to be bashing. > > >IceCats Definition of Spoiling: > >Predicting the outcome of certain aspects >of the show via the >artful presentation of evidence that >exists outside the context of >the dominant narrative. > >Translation: Find the stuff that >MB doesn't want you to >see. I agree with your definition. However, you just limit what you consider factual evidence more than I do. I do not have a problem with that. Evidently, you do not have the same openmindedness. Now I will go back to attempting to find that stuff MB does not want us to see in my own way. A lighthearted post meant only to jokingly point out some idiosyncracies with rule number 4 evidently touched some nerves. It was only meant to inspire a chuckle and give the opposing viewpoint. Fyre   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 06:51 PM (EST) 23. "Agree to Disagree..." LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 06:54 PM (EST) We agree to disagree about the fact that there is a difference between spoiling and speculating. I will thank you, however, not to take my remarks out of context: You said: "... I thought this board was open to all types of spoiling. I did not realize the type approved of was so defined. I also was under the impression the board's purpose was to spoil the show not flame the people who's opinion's one does not agree with..." At no time did I say that the board was open or not open to a particular type of spoiling neither did I state that a person would be flamed for having a differing opinion. I said: "... I am contrasting this with the practice of saying 'I think so-and-so is thinking this' or 'so-and-so will do that'. Statements of this nature cannot possibly have any reliable evidence to back them up. If you intend to answer that you can tell what they will do in a future episode by watching what they did in previous episodes then please save the typing because you are simply inviting a good, savage (and well-deserved) flaming from some of the more quick tempered folks around here..." I did state that speculation is different from spoiling. I did state that if you responded that any depicted behaviours portrayed in previous episodes gives one any reliable insight to the subsequent depiction of behaviour then you would be inviting a flaming for not being critical enough in your thinking. I am pleased that you chose not not answer in that fashion. I will also thank you not to presume that my post was based upon emotionality: ... A lighthearted post meant only to jokingly point out some idiosyncracies with rule number 4 evidently touched some nerves... I prefer to leave emotions and even speculative comment about the emotions of others out of discussions. If you will notice, this series of posts is the only comment that I have made regarding speculation vs. spoiling. In the speculation threads I simply read them to look for objectionable content. I do not post to them as I do not see them a potentially fruitful method of inquiry. If I had a problem with your posts I would have told you in a simple, direct, and unemotional fashion. That being said... I have no problem with any of your opinions... I simply have ones that differ from yours. Edited to Add: I just noticed the irony of your nickname in light of this discussion. Funny when things like that happen.   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-15-01, 07:26 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Agree to Disagree..." Thank you for your objectivity. You are more like my spouse- the other half of my nickname. He also prefers to leave emotional analysis out of debates. We have much fun together. It makes for extremely interesting discussions.lol That said, I would never attempt to state my way is better than the great IceCat (said in all seriousness). I also apologize for misreading the context of some of your post. That is very frustrating to a poster as I can attest. I am a newbie at actually posting on this board, and can learn much from such as yourself. I hope you can get a chuckle every once and awhile from my posts because I do love to analyze behavior. Maybe I will even be right at times. I am known for my success with it in the real world. Lesson learned from shakes and your great post- always back it with facts and keep it short. (smile) On to spoiling and speculating. Fyre   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-15-01, 03:44 PM (EST) 22. "Rule #2 on editing" Hey Shakes, I have a question for you and anyone interested in Rule #2: Burnitt's school of editing. I agree with you as to the short term rules you laid out. What is the long term rule that MB uses with face time? Specifically, what are we to make of Teresa's lack of face time in this series, now that she's a virtual shoe-in for at least the Final 6 and probably better? I rewatched Ep 9 to just get an impression of face time (and other conversations) and she was MIA--no confessional when everyone else had more than one. At this point, she's getting less time than Gina in LC before she was brought back. O yeah, Gina was off the boat from the first episode. Why treat Teresa like an absent presence, and could someone that UTR make the F4 in this game? People compare her to Tina, but Tina was always a presence in the life of the camp. This is more like Nick (who?). Unlike Nick, though, she has a good strategic position and is not lying around being sick. I realize that one viable theory is that she comes out of nowhere with some incredible coup, but if so, the public ought to know who she is a little bit more. A shot of her in a one-piece and a smile at a joke is not enough. Did anyone even see her trying to make fire at the IC? Everyone else was tracked. Thoughts, Shakes and all you students of show-long editing?   Top

diamond 2307 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model" 12-15-01, 07:15 PM (EST) 24. "Boring?" LAST EDITED ON 12-15-01 AT 07:39 PM (EST) This may not be the whole reason, but I believe part of it is that she is incredibly boring. It's still hard for me to tell exactly how far she'll make it, but I don't see her pulling off any major coup. When thinking about the show as a whole, I think people get facetime for three main reasons: 1) Their actions are central to the storyline, which usually centers around who is getting booted. This obviously includes the actual person getting booted, as well as people who directly participate in orchestrating the boot. It also includes people who may discuss or plot booting someone else, or trying to plan new alliances, so that the actual boot is not obvious. This category of facetime can apply to either a single episode, or can stretch over a number of episodes, even presumably the whole show. A person may get facetime for something they say or do in one episode that has consequences to the storyline at a much later time. 2) They are key players in winning, or losing, a challenge, since challenges have to be shown. In particular, especially at the later stages of the game, winners of reward challenges get a lot of facetime because they have to be shown getting their reward. 3) They are entertaining. Being entertaining can be many things, depending on who you are. It includes being funny, being cute, being outrageous, trash-talking, being a jerk, being a psycho, having a personality conflict with someone else, being attacked by flies, pooping, vomiting, and popping boils. These things aren't necessarily all entertaining to all people, but they must be to some. Teresa doesn't trash-talk like Kelly or Brandon. It's possible that she does, and it's not shown, but I don't think so. She just seems too nice to do that. She's not outrageous or funny like Tom. She's not loopy like Linda or weird like Frank. She's not a whiny basket case like Lindsey or an idiot like Silas. She's an attractive woman, but too old to be sweetheart material. She hasn't pooped, vomited, or had a boil that we know of. She has had no major personality conflicts with anyone that we know of - despite being on the wrong side of the GXA-OFA split, she appears to have liked the younger people, and she never seemed to be too bitter or angry about what happened. She's never been in a position of power that I can think of, so there's been very little opportunity to show her strategizing or discussing who to vote off. I think that, barring a well-timed immunity challenge win, Teresa will probably make it to the final 4 or 5, and her exit will be fairly uneventful. She'll be given facetime simply because she's getting booted, and that will be it. She may be a really nice person, but nice is also dull. I think that is why we haven't seen much of her. As always, I could be wrong. I'd be interested to see what other people think about this. diamond   Top

Rose Red 419 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 12-15-01, 07:53 PM (EST) 27. "KELLY spoils again." I replied in detail to OFG's last post about the editing, but it seems to have not been posted? Gotten Lost? Does that happen? Anyway, there's a Kelly spoiler or two from her interview on the San Diego radio show that had her parents both on it. When asked why she was not seen very much at the beginning, she said, "Oh, you know, they have to give screen time to all the people who are going to be BOOTED FIRST!!!" and then she added, I think, "So they save you for later. That's all right." So that's why we haven't seen Teresa or Kim Powers much? MB is "saving them for the end."? She also said she would NEVER vote for any one from her old tribe because "They all betrayed me. I was so shocked. We were all high-fiving on the way in.(to the TC)I thought everything was all right." "I would give Frank, or Teresa, or Kim Powers,someone like that, y'know, somebody from Samburu, the money. I would never give any body from my team a million dollars because they betrayed me." When asked about Ethan she was guarded, and said that he was "a shy guy, and everybody picked up on the way he was acting and copied it. He's just shy." About his strategy for winning? "He didn't have any. He was just shy."???????????????????????????????? What do yawl make of this? Also, she did not mention Brandon as someone who she would give a million to, even though this show was taped before we knew he was the next person on the Bootieville Express. Does that mean one, or all of those Samburu make the final four? I think so....   Top

fyrenice 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 12-15-01, 07:45 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Rule #2 on editing" Teresa has had a presence albeit small. MB has slowly wormed Teresa in a little more each episode. 1. Original Samburu- low-profile. MB showed us that she was charming and the most liked of the old folks. 2. New Boran- Teresa became someone to root for as she overcame the previous odds due to twist. MB showed the possibility of her causing a possible split in the LET alliance. 3. Merged tribe- Teresa gathered old Samburu together showing she had leadership skills. Unfortunately, it backfired. MB shows us that she has the trust of the Borans and that she is a potential player. From here on, it is totally speculation. Why the small but important bits of information? MB seems to only show Teresa in the light of mediator. In all episodes up until 9 (please correct me if I am wrong), Teresa was not the one who struck me most as having little facetime. Ethan and KimP seemed to hardly exist. Does anyone have actual facetime numbers? Fyre   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 12-16-01, 02:45 PM (EST) 28. "Hey... you talkin' to me???" Yeah, yeah, yeah... my gut was wrong... My mistake last week was that Brandon revealed two strategies (in Insider): 1) go back to Samburu (his goal)... therefore this would not happen. 2) Vote Frank out (who had recieved lots of face time in every episode EXCEPT the previous one) when it was safe to do so... therefore, I assumed that this *would* happen... but *before* it was safe to do so... oops. As for spoilers... I think my reasoning was still sound. I pointed out that Brandon was only going to last one more episode, cause all of the spoilers pointed to an early exit, and because Lex's final five promise, Brandon's final four hopes would not have been shown to us if they came true... and also because Brandon would not be trusted by anyone on either trube after his betrayal... I just missed it by one week. Since this thread has taken a turn about speculation vs. spoilers, I'll add my two cents: I've said all along that all good spoiling is a combination of BOTH!!!... Without the speculation, what are you gonna do with the evidence? Without the spoilers, what can you speculate on? You must have BOTH to spoil the show! You never know what might be up my sleeeve...   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-16-01, 04:45 PM (EST) 29. "Agreed..." Spoiling is speculation based upon evidence... Speculation on its own is not spoiling... Evidence without speculation is not spoiling... Yin without yang... I'll shut up now...   Top

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